RT Breakout (@breakoutprop)Most traders don’t fail prop evals because of their strategy. They fail because they break structure.Here’s what we’ve seen break traders the most:– One bad trade becomes five.– Chasing after a win. They size up and overextend.– Skipping journaling. No review = no improvement.– Random entries. No setup, no edge.The traders who pass?They keep their system boring.They track performance.They stay small until they’ve earned the size.If you're trying to pass, forget the hero trade.Mast ...

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].

Core Viewpoint - The mortgage market faced challenges in the second quarter due to interest rate volatility and negative investor sentiment, but AGNC Investment managed to navigate these issues effectively while maintaining its high dividend yield [4][5][11]. Company Performance - AGNC Investment reported an economic return of negative 1% for the quarter and a comprehensive loss of $0.13 per share, primarily due to underperformance in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBSes) [4][2]. - Despite the negative headline numbers, the company maintained a robust risk management strategy and strong liquidity, allowing it to preserve its portfolio and sustain its 15%-yielding monthly dividend [5][11]. Market Outlook - The CEO of AGNC Investment expressed a favorable outlook for levered and hedged Agency MBS investments, noting that mortgage spreads remain elevated by historical standards, creating a favorable return environment [6][7]. - The supply of MBSes is balanced with demand, and anticipated regulatory changes may allow banks to increase their MBS investments, further strengthening the market [7][8]. Investment Strategy - AGNC continues to earn a return on equity of around 19%, which aligns well with its cost of capital, suggesting the company can maintain its current dividend level [9]. - The company raised $799 million by selling 92.6 million shares during the second quarter, using about half of that capital to invest opportunistically in MBSes, which is expected to boost returns and support the dividend [10]. Risk and Reward - AGNC Investment offers a high-risk, high-reward passive income stream with its substantial monthly dividend, which remains secure despite market turbulence [11][12]. - The investment may not be suitable for all investors due to its higher risk profile, but it presents significant potential rewards for those with a higher risk tolerance [12].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - CME Group generated revenue of $1,700,000,000, up 10% from the second quarter in 2024 [12] - Adjusted operating income reached a record $1,200,000,000, up 14% year over year [12] - Adjusted net income was $1,100,000,000, with adjusted diluted earnings per share at $2.96, both up 16% from the previous year [13] - Average daily volume exceeded 30,200,000 contracts, representing a 16% increase compared to the same period last year [7][8] - Adjusted operating margin improved to 71%, up from 69.1% in the same period last year [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Financial products volume grew by 17%, while commodity sector volume increased by 15% [8] - Record quarterly volume from international business averaged 9,200,000 contracts per day, up 18% from the prior year [9] - Retail trading saw over 90,000 new participants, a 56% increase year over year, contributing to a record average daily volume of 4,100,000 contracts in Micro products [10][39] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - EMEA region recorded a 15% increase in average daily volume, while APAC saw a 30% increase [9] - The strong growth in open interest was up by 7% from the end of Q2 2024 and 10% from year-end 2024 [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - CME Group is focusing on retail traders and expanding partnerships with new online brokers to meet increasing demand [9][39] - The company announced a ten-year extension of its exclusive license to offer futures and options on NASDAQ indexes, ensuring continued access to these products [10][11] - CME Group is exploring tokenization technology in partnership with Google, aiming to enhance market efficiencies [76][78] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the resilience of markets amid global uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and rising debt levels [20][22] - The company anticipates continued demand for risk management products, although predicting specific volume levels remains challenging [19][22] - Management expressed optimism about the retail segment's growth and the potential for further participation across various asset classes [31][32] Other Important Information - CME Group's adjusted effective tax rate was 23.3% for the quarter [13] - Capital expenditures for the second quarter were approximately $19,000,000, with cash at the end of the quarter totaling $2,200,000,000 [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the key drivers that can sustain strong hedging activities going into the second half? - Management noted the difficulty in predicting volumes but emphasized the ongoing global risks that necessitate risk management [19][20] Question: Can you discuss the recent take-up of retail traders and their trading behavior? - Management reported unprecedented growth in retail participation and expressed confidence in continued engagement across various asset classes [30][39] Question: How is the company thinking about capital deployment given the cash balances? - Management indicated a balanced approach to capital deployment, focusing on opportunistic buybacks and maintaining a variable dividend structure [52][54] Question: How have tariffs impacted the physical commodities business? - Management noted that tariffs have led to market dislocations, increasing trading activity and volumes across various client segments [60][61] Question: Can you provide an update on FX Spot Plus and its impact? - Management reported strong initial uptake with significant daily volumes and new participants, enhancing market quality [110] Question: What are the company's views on stablecoins and tokenization? - Management is optimistic about the potential efficiencies from tokenization and is actively working on partnerships to implement these technologies [76][78]

Core Insights - Dynex Capital reported significant growth in its portfolio and market capitalization, with a portfolio size of $14 billion, over 50% larger than the previous year, and a market cap exceeding $1.5 billion as of June 30 [2][4] - The company increased its economic leverage to 8.3x from 7.4x, supported by a stable mortgage repo market and strong liquidity [3][4] - High-return agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are driving risk-adjusted returns, with ROEs on newly acquired positions ranging from the mid-teens to low 20% [5][6] Financial Performance - Dynex Capital's debt-to-equity ratio stood at 8.3, with quarter-end liquidity at $891 million, representing 55% of total equity [1] - The portfolio expanded by 25% since the end of the first quarter, increasing from $11 billion to $14 billion [2] Market Conditions - The company benefited from a supportive policy environment, allowing for increased leverage while maintaining robust liquidity [4] - Mortgage spreads remain historically wide, contributing to the attractiveness of agency MBSs [5][6] Strategic Focus - Management emphasizes continued capital deployment into agency MBSs and maintaining sufficient liquidity for further portfolio growth [7] - Long-term value creation is anchored in high-quality, liquid asset exposure and flexible leverage according to market opportunities [8]

Have been thinking a lot today about optimal portfolio balancing if we really are going full risk on for a little bit.Key factors:- ETH going parabolic on the back on seemingly infinite institutional bid- BTC.D crashing- Desire for exposure to alts definitely coming back with some retail bid.Outstanding question:What do you allocate to/how far out on the beta risk curve do you need to go?Example:for me, ETH alone is good enough for a decent bit of exposure for me…but what if I want exposure to other ecos?So ...

Core Insights - Bank of America reported Q2 2025 earnings with EPS of $0.89, exceeding analyst expectations of $0.86, and net income rose to $7.1 billion, marking a year-over-year increase [1][5] - Total revenue for the quarter was $26.5 billion, slightly below consensus estimates of $26.77 billion, reflecting a 4.3% increase from the previous year [1][5] Financial Performance - EPS (GAAP) increased by 7.2% year-over-year from $0.83 to $0.89 [2] - Revenue (GAAP) rose to $26.5 billion from $25.4 billion in Q2 2024, but missed estimates by approximately 0.8% [2][5] - Net interest income grew to $14.7 billion, a 7.3% increase from $13.7 billion in the prior year [2][5] - Net income increased by 2.9% from $6.9 billion in Q2 2024 to $7.1 billion [2][5] Business Segments - Investment banking fees decreased by 9%, while Global Banking segment revenue fell by 6% [6] - Global Markets segment saw a strong performance with trading revenue up 14% and FICC revenue up 16% [6] - Wealth management asset management fees rose by 9%, with client balances exceeding $4.4 trillion [6] Operational Insights - Noninterest expenses rose by 5% to $17.2 billion, driven by higher revenue-related expenses and investments in technology and personnel [7] - The efficiency ratio improved in consumer banking, with 49 million active digital users and 65% of sales being digitally enabled [7] Risk Management - Provision for credit losses increased to $1.6 billion, consistent with previous quarters, while the net charge-off ratio remained steady at 0.55% [8] - The allowance for loan and lease losses was 1.17% of total loans for Q2 2025, down from 1.26% in Q2 2024 [8] Capital Returns - The company returned $7.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, with an announced 8% dividend increase for Q3 2025 [9] Future Outlook - The company targets a quarterly exit rate of $15.5 billion to $15.7 billion by Q4 2025, with full-year expenses expected to rise by 2% to 3% [10] - Investors should monitor fee revenue softness in investment banking and potential challenges from expense growth due to technology and wage pressures [11]

Private Credit Market Growth & Mainstreaming - Private credit is becoming mainstream, with affluent and wealthy investors increasing investments by 250% in the last 3 years [2] - Approximately $350 billion of wealth assets are now in private credit [2] - Evergreen products are growing at about 60% this year, indicating continued demand [3] - Bringing private credit into retirement portfolios with 401k reforms is considered interesting [3] Banks vs Alternative Asset Managers in Private Credit - Banks face restrictions on risk absorption, impacting their role in private credit [6] - Banks were discouraged from taking very risky, long-dated, and complicated loans after the financial crisis [8] - Private credit has grown around leveraged lending and mid-market lending, fueled by insurance companies with long-term loans [9] - Some loans fit better on a bank's balance sheet, while others are more suited for the private market [8] - Banks will be very competitive with private credit, but the key is determining the best owner of the risk for a certain type of loan [9] Regulatory Environment & Systemic Risk - Firms are concerned about litigation risk, necessitating safe harbors or clear legal guidance [4] - Central banks are asking questions about the systemic risk, the economic cycle, and the potential for bad decisions in private credit [16][18][19] - Private credit firms taking riskier pieces can make banks less risky [17] - Central banks want more data to monitor the pulse of the private credit market as it transitions from niche to mainstream [19]

Market Volatility & Hedging Strategy - The market exhibits complacency with the VIX around 17%, presenting an opportunity for investors to hedge downside risk relatively inexpensively using out-of-the-money options [2][3] - Buying a 610 put on SPY or 6100 on SPX expiring in August would cost approximately 1% of the portfolio's value, offering significant downside protection [3][6] - Investors can offset the cost of downside protection by selling covered calls, potentially collecting close to 05% of the portfolio's value in the next 30 days [6][7] Trade War Scenarios & Options Plays - In a scenario where the EU and India don't make a deal and retaliate with tariffs, buying out-of-the-money put options is a simple way to hedge against this worst-case scenario [4][5] - If the trade deal deadline is extended, investors can roll out their options to September, continuously harvesting premium by selling upside calls and using the proceeds to buy downside put protection [8][9][10] - If countries capitulate and make a deal, the market is likely to react positively, and investors could consider selling downside puts and using the proceeds to fund buying upside calls for upside participation [11][12][13]

Group 1 - The Bank of England has fined Vocalink, a Mastercard-owned company, $16.2 million for inadequate risk management and governance failures [1][2][3] - This penalty is significant as it marks the first time the Bank of England has imposed financial penalties on a financial market infrastructure company [2] - Vocalink's failure to comply with the Bank of England's governance requirements, identified in 2022, led to the fine [2][3] Group 2 - Vocalink was able to reduce its penalty from £20 million (approximately $27 million) by cooperating with the investigation and admitting to compliance failures early [4] - A spokesperson for Vocalink stated that improvements have been made since the issues were identified in 2020, and these historic issues did not impact the services provided to U.K. consumers and businesses [5] Group 3 - Recent research indicates a mismatch in how financial institutions approach real-time payments, with many enabling receipt but not instant sending capabilities [6][7] - This imbalance in real-time payment capabilities could limit the potential of advanced payment networks and may lead to financial institutions losing market share if they do not implement both sending and receiving functionalities [7]