I aim to provide alpha-generating investment ideas. I am an independent investor managing my family's portfolio, primarily via a Self Managed Super Fund. You can expect my articles to deliver a clearly structured, evidence-based thesis.I have a generalist approach as I explore, analyze and invest in any sector so long there is perceived alpha potential vs the S&P500. The typical holding period ranges between a few quarters to multiple years.A bit about how I approach research and coverage of a stock:I build ...

Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) 2026 Conference Summary Industry Overview - Caterpillar is redefining heavy industry in the context of data, autonomy, and AI, showcasing innovation in sectors like energy, construction, mining, and infrastructure [1][2] - The company has over 110,000 employees and operates in 63 countries, with a focus on transforming equipment manufacturing and worksite management [3] Core Points and Arguments - Caterpillar is integrating AI and machine learning into its operations, enhancing efficiency and sustainability on a global scale [2] - The company emphasizes the importance of the physical infrastructure that supports the digital economy, highlighting its role in providing the necessary equipment for modern technology [6][18] - Caterpillar's strategy focuses on solving customers' toughest challenges, which drives investment decisions and partnerships [18][19] - The introduction of the Cat AI Assistant aims to support customers by providing real-time insights and recommendations, enhancing operational efficiency [30][32] Technological Innovations - Caterpillar's Helios platform connects approximately 1.5 million assets, processing vast amounts of data to improve operational intelligence [28] - The company has been a pioneer in autonomy for over 30 years, with its autonomous mining fleet moving over 11 billion tons of material without reported injuries [43] - New autonomous machines are being developed for construction, which will improve safety and efficiency on job sites [48][50] Partnerships and Collaborations - Caterpillar collaborates with NVIDIA to enhance AI capabilities, focusing on real-time data processing and machine learning applications in heavy industry [20][24] - The partnership aims to bridge the gap between digital and physical operations, making Caterpillar's equipment smarter and more efficient [21][56] Workforce Development - Caterpillar is committing $25 million to strengthen the workforce, focusing on training and education to prepare employees for new roles created by technological advancements [55] - The company recognizes the need for skilled labor in the evolving landscape of heavy industry and aims to support the transition of workers into new positions [54][56] Additional Important Content - The conference highlighted the historical context of Caterpillar's innovation, tracing back to its centennial celebration in 2025 and emphasizing a culture of forward-thinking [2][12] - The Cat AI Assistant is designed to be a proactive partner for operators, providing guidance and support to improve safety and productivity on job sites [33][34] - Caterpillar's commitment to sustainability and efficiency is evident in its focus on reducing downtime and improving operational performance through advanced technology [19][54]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The CES 2026 showcased over 4,000 companies, focusing on AI and its integration into various products, including PCs, home appliances, and foundational chips [1] - The combined market capitalization of the four major semiconductor companies—NVIDIA, AMD, Qualcomm, and Intel—reaches nearly $5.3 trillion, indicating significant investor interest in AI technologies [1] - Concerns about the over-exuberance of the AI market persist, with 2026 expected to be a year for evaluating genuine value creation rather than mere speculation [1] Group 2: NVIDIA Developments - NVIDIA unexpectedly launched its next-generation AI chip platform "Rubin," which significantly enhances training and inference performance by 3.5 times and 5 times, respectively, compared to its predecessor [2] - The company reported over $500 billion in orders for its Blackwell and Rubin architectures for 2025-2026, reflecting strong demand for computing power in data centers [2] - NVIDIA introduced the open-source autonomous driving model "Alpamayo," which features 10 billion parameters and aims to streamline the processing from sensor input to driving commands [3] Group 3: AMD Initiatives - AMD adopted an aggressive "stacking" strategy, showcasing the Helios AI rack, which integrates 72 MI455X accelerator chips and 31TB of HBM4 memory, claiming it to be the best AI rack globally [5][6] - The new generation of chips is expected to deliver up to a 10-fold performance improvement under various workloads, aided by a hybrid 2nm and 3nm manufacturing process [6] - AMD signed a significant infrastructure procurement agreement with OpenAI, valued at 6 gigawatts, marking a substantial entry into the core supply chain of leading AI model developers [6] Group 4: Qualcomm and Intel Strategies - Qualcomm is diversifying its strategy to reduce reliance on the smartphone market, launching the Snapdragon X2 Plus chip aimed at the mid-range laptop market, with a focus on energy efficiency and 5G connectivity [8] - Intel introduced the "Panther Lake" third-generation Core Ultra processor, its first chip manufactured using the 18A process, which is crucial for regaining manufacturing leadership [9] - The third-generation Core Ultra processors are set to be released in the second quarter of 2026, targeting industrial, medical, and smart city applications [10]

2026 年 1 月 5 日，CES 开场。AMD 董事长兼首席执行官 Lisa Su 站上主舞台，没有任何铺垫，直指本 质： AI 是过去 50 年最重要的技术。 但她这次不是来讲远景的，而是带着完整方案来的。 不只是芯片，而是一整套工业级平台： 面向数据中心的 MI455X，3200 亿晶体管； 2022 年全球 AI 运算需求是 1 Zettaflop，2025 年预计要超过 100 Zettaflops，Lisa Su 给出的预测更为大 胆：未来五年，全球算力要再提 100 倍，迈向 10 Yottaflops。 Yottaflop 是什么概念？ 面向企业部署的 MI440X，主打推理与节能； 还有她这次主推的 Helios，为 Yotta 级 AI 时代打造的机架级平台。 这不是在升级显卡，而是在重新划出一个产业分界线。 为了证明这不仅是 AMD 自说自话，Lisa Su 请来了一批顶级 AI 用户同台背书：OpenAI、World Labs、 Luma、Liquid、Absci 等行业领军者，现场展示他们如何将核心业务部署在 AMD 平台上。 更关键的是，Lisa Su 还预告了下一代 MI500 ...

Core Insights - Nvidia and AMD are positioning themselves as leading AI investments for 2026, showcasing their latest products at CES 2026 [1] Nvidia Developments - Nvidia launched its Vera Rubin AI computing platform, which is in full production and set to roll out to partners later this year [2] - The Vera Rubin platform includes six new chips, including a superchip that integrates CPUs and GPUs, designed for advanced AI workloads [3] - Microsoft will utilize the Vera Rubin superchip for its next-generation AI super factories, highlighting its significance in data-center scale AI [3] AMD Developments - AMD introduced its Helios platform, marketed as the "world's best AI system," aimed at yotta-scale AI infrastructure and large-model building [4] - The Helios platform is built around AMD's Instinct MI455X GPUs and EPYC "Venice" CPUs, directly competing with Nvidia's offerings [4] - AMD also expanded its portfolio with the Ryzen AI 400 / PRO 400 Series processors and the Ryzen Halo mini PC developer platform [5] Performance Comparison - Over the last three years, AMD's stock has increased by 200%, while Nvidia's stock has surged over 1,100% [6] - In 2025, AMD's stock spiked over 70%, outperforming Nvidia's nearly 40% gain [6] - AMD's forward earnings multiple is 35X, slightly lower than Nvidia's 40X, with both companies trading at discounts compared to historical P/E valuations [7] Earnings Projections - AMD's EPS for fiscal 2025 is projected to rise 19% to $3.96, with a further increase of 58% to $6.26 expected in FY26 [9] - Nvidia's EPS estimates for FY26 have risen over 4%, with projections for a 56% increase to $4.66 and a 55% growth to $7.24 in FY27 [10][12] Market Outlook - The presentations at CES 2026 are expected to enhance the outlook for both AMD and Nvidia following the unveiling of their next-gen AI platforms [12] - Nvidia currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), while AMD has a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating a stronger market position for Nvidia despite AMD's growth in the AI sector [13]

"好戏还在后头！" CES 2026上，美国超威半导体公司（AMD）董事会主席兼CEO苏姿丰说出了这句开场白。 苏姿丰的演讲环节接棒英伟达CEO黄仁勋，而这背后更大的意味是，AMD正在数据中心GPU领域全力 追赶英伟达。 图片来源：AMD直播截图 这是她的竞争宣言。 在今年CES上，英伟达已宣布Rubin架构提前全面投产，市场关心，AMD如何应对。 苏姿丰发布了AMD最新的AI计算机架Helios，定位为面向大规模AI训练的数据中心架构。该系统结合 了AMD的下一代Instinct GPU、EPYC CPU和高性能互联网络，单个机架预计可达到约2.9 exaFLOPS FP4计算性能，并为万亿参数规模的AI模型训练提供高带宽和高能效的数据通路支持。 她还首次展示了公司最新的MI455芯片。MI455的晶体管数量比MI355多70%，搭载432GB的超高速 HBM4内存，通过下一代3D芯片堆叠技术实现连接，较之MI355的性能提升高达10倍。 此前，市场即预计MI450系列芯片将在2026年下半年量产、出货，与英伟达新一代Rubin芯片放量时间 近似。同场竞技的情况下，客户的采购意愿和交付后反馈将成为关键。 此 ...

Summary of CES 2026 Keynote Address by AMD CEO Dr. Lisa Su Industry Overview - The keynote was part of CES 2026, a major technology event showcasing innovations across various sectors, particularly focusing on AI and high-performance computing [1][4][5] - AMD is positioned as a central player in the global AI transformation, emphasizing its role in high-performance and AI computing [5][6] Core Points and Arguments AI and Computing Demand - AI is described as the most important technology of the last 50 years, with AMD prioritizing its development [15][16] - The number of active AI users has surged from 1 million to over 1 billion, with projections of reaching over 5 billion users [16][17] - Global compute infrastructure demand is expected to grow from approximately 1 Zettaflop in 2022 to over 100 Zettaflops by 2025, necessitating a further increase to over 10 Yottaflops in the next five years [17][19] - AI's integration into various sectors, including healthcare, education, and productivity, is highlighted as transformative [15][16] AMD's Technological Innovations - AMD's Helios platform is introduced as a next-generation rack scale solution designed for AI, featuring advanced MI455 GPUs and EPYC CPUs [23][30] - The MI455 GPU boasts 320 billion transistors and is designed for high performance, delivering up to 10 times more performance compared to previous generations [27][30] - The Helios rack is designed for optimal serviceability and reliability, weighing nearly 7,000 pounds and integrating cutting-edge technologies [24][25][26] Partnerships and Collaborations - AMD's collaboration with OpenAI is emphasized, showcasing the need for increased compute capacity to support advanced AI models [31][39] - Luma AI's CEO, Amit Jain, discusses their partnership with AMD, highlighting the efficiency and performance improvements achieved through AMD's hardware [50][59] Future Outlook - The demand for compute is expected to continue growing, with AMD's next-gen MI500 series already in development, promising a 1,000x increase in AI performance over four years [63][64] - The Ryzen AI 400 Series is introduced as the most advanced family of AI PC processors, set to enhance productivity and content creation capabilities [67][68] Additional Important Content - The keynote emphasizes the collaborative nature of innovation, stating that AI is not a solo act but a shared pursuit among industry leaders [2][4] - The importance of an open ecosystem for AI development is stressed, with AMD advocating for shared technology standards across hardware and software [48][49] - The potential of AI in personal computing is highlighted, with AI PCs becoming essential partners in productivity and creativity [65][66] This summary encapsulates the key themes and innovations presented during the CES 2026 keynote by AMD's CEO, focusing on the transformative impact of AI and the company's strategic advancements in computing technology.

Core Insights - Intel Corporation has completed a $5 billion investment from NVIDIA Corporation, acquiring approximately 214.7 million shares at $23.28 per share, resulting in NVIDIA holding a 4% equity stake in Intel [1][8] Group 1: Strategic Partnerships and Investments - The partnership between Intel and NVIDIA aims to integrate Intel's x86 CPUs with NVIDIA's AI GPUs and NVLink technology to enhance AI systems and next-generation PCs, thereby improving performance in AI and graphics [2] - Intel has secured $8.9 billion from the U.S. government to support semiconductor manufacturing and packaging projects across several states, alongside a $2 billion investment from SoftBank to aid in restructuring and AI initiatives [3][4] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Intel faces competition from Qualcomm and AMD, with Qualcomm recently acquiring Alphawave Semi for $2.4 billion to enhance its AI and data center capabilities, while also expanding into new markets like AI infrastructure [5] - AMD is preparing to launch high-performance AI GPUs and server CPUs, partnering with companies like OpenAI and Oracle to enhance its offerings in gaming, PCs, and servers [6] Group 3: Financial Performance and Estimates - Intel's stock has increased by 85% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 34.1% [7] - The company's shares currently trade at a price/book ratio of 1.5, which is lower than the industry average of 32.5 [9] - Earnings estimates for Intel have seen a 6.3% increase for 2025 to $0.34 per share, while estimates for 2026 have decreased by 6.5% to $0.58 [10]

With this in mind, which companies have demonstrated steady quantum computing progress? 1. Honeywell International Inc. Although not typically perceived as a quantum computing company, Honeywell has two major advantages. First, as long as the dollar maintains its global reserve currency status, Honeywell will continue to serve the military industrial complex with its aerospace systems, alongside land, naval, satellite and autonomous systems. Honeywell's Aerospace Technologies (AT) division represented aroun ...

Micron Technology - Micron's shares increased by approximately 14%, or $31, following strong earnings results [2] - The company reported an EPS of $4.78, exceeding expectations by 82 cents, and revenue of $13.64 billion, surpassing estimates by $760 million [2] - For the upcoming second quarter, Micron anticipates earnings between $8.22 and $8.62 per share, with revenue projected between $18.3 billion and $19.1 billion [2] - CEO Sanjay Mehrotra highlighted record figures in revenue, gross margin, EPS, and free cash flow, with expectations for continued business performance improvement through fiscal 2026 [3] - Micron forecasts a potential $100 billion high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market by 2028, two years earlier than previously expected due to supply-demand dynamics [3] - The company declared a dividend of $0.115 per share, payable on January 14 to shareholders of record as of December 29 [4] Broadcom - Broadcom's shares experienced a significant decline after management indicated margin pressures [5] - Despite this, analysts at Morgan Stanley maintain an overweight rating on Broadcom, with a price target of $462, suggesting the recent pullback is an overreaction [6] - Other analysts, including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Bernstein, have set price targets ranging from $450 to $500, all with buy or outperform ratings [6] Advanced Micro Devices - Advanced Micro Devices' shares rose by about 3%, or $6, in premarket trading [8] - Analysts at Piper Sandler have an overweight rating on AMD, with a price target of $280, expressing optimism ahead of the Helios launch, a new AI platform [8]