TSMC (2330.TW) Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) - **Ticker**: 2330.TW - **Current Price**: NT$1,690.00 - **12-Month Price Target**: NT$2,600.00 - **Market Capitalization**: NT$43.8 trillion / $1.4 trillion - **Enterprise Value**: NT$41.0 trillion / $1.3 trillion Key Industry Insights - **AI Demand**: TSMC has raised its AI revenue CAGR forecast to mid-to-high 50% from mid-40%, indicating strong long-term growth potential driven by AI applications. The overall revenue CAGR target for 2024-2029 is now approaching 25%, up from 20% previously. The supply-demand imbalance in AI remains unresolved, with leading-edge capacity constrained until at least 2027 [2][19]. Financial Performance Highlights - **4Q25 Results**: - Revenue: NT$1,046.09 billion (US$33.73 billion), up 5.7% QoQ and 20.5% YoY, exceeding guidance and consensus estimates [39]. - Gross Margin (GM): 62.3%, up 280bps QoQ and 330bps YoY, driven by improved cost control and higher utilization rates [39]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): NT$19.50, up 11.8% QoQ and 35.0% YoY, also above consensus [39]. Capital Expenditure (Capex) Outlook - **2026 Capex Guidance**: TSMC is guiding for capex of US$52-56 billion, significantly higher than market expectations of around US$50 billion. This reflects early equipment pull-ins from 2027 and increased infrastructure spending. Capex over the next three years is expected to exceed the US$101 billion spent in the past three years [3][20]. Profitability and Margin Expectations - **Long-term GM Target**: Management has raised the long-term GM target to "56% and higher" from "53% and higher." The expectation is that GM will remain above 60% as a new norm, with forecasts for 2026/27 GM at 63.2%/64.0% compared to 59.9% in 2025 [4][22]. - **Operating Margin (OpM)**: Expected to be in the range of 54-56% for 1Q26, reflecting strong demand and productivity improvements [38]. Growth Drivers - **Advanced Packaging**: This segment is emerging as a second growth engine, with revenue contribution expected to reach 8% in 2025 and over 10% in 2026. The long-term growth rate for advanced packaging is projected to outpace the corporate average over the next five years [23]. Earnings Revisions - Following the strong 4Q25 results, TSMC has revised its EPS forecasts upward for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 2.4%, 10.8%, and 11.6% respectively, reflecting stronger revenue and margin expectations [41]. Conclusion - TSMC's strong performance in 4Q25, coupled with robust guidance for AI-driven growth and significant capex plans, positions the company favorably for continued expansion in the semiconductor industry. The upward revisions in earnings forecasts further underscore the positive outlook for TSMC in the coming years [1][41].

Market Overview - Asian stocks advanced, driven by a resurgence in the artificial intelligence sector, with MSCI's Asia-Pacific index outside Japan up 0.5% and near a record high [2] - Wall Street saw gains in technology and financial stocks, with Nasdaq futures up 0.22% and S&P 500 futures up 0.15% [3] - The dollar remained near a six-week high following positive US economic data, leading to reduced expectations for rate cuts [5][6] Technology Sector - Strong results from Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC revitalized interest in AI stocks, providing reassurance to investors amid previous doubts about capital expenditure in AI [4] - The US and Taiwan reached a trade deal that reduces tariffs on semiconductor exports and encourages investment in the US technology sector, potentially straining US-China relations [2] Currency and Economic Indicators - The dollar index stood at 99.36, close to its highest level since December 2, with a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates in April [6][7] - The yen strengthened slightly to 158.48 per dollar, although it remained near an 18-month low, influenced by speculation of a potential snap election in Japan [7][8] Oil and Precious Metals - Oil prices showed signs of recovery after a significant drop, with Brent futures up 0.11% at $63.83 per barrel and US crude up 0.2% at $59.31 per barrel [10] - Gold prices fell 0.16% to $4,607.50 per ounce, reflecting a broader decline in safe-haven assets [10]

Core Insights - The increasing demand for power, particularly from AI data centers, is reshaping the U.S. natural gas landscape, with infrastructure expanding nationwide to meet this demand [1][2] Group 1: Natural Gas Demand and Infrastructure - Natural gas is becoming a crucial energy source to meet the reliability needs of data centers, which renewable sources alone cannot fulfill [2] - A significant agreement has been made between Energy Transfer (ET) and Entergy Louisiana to supply gas for Meta's Hyperion data center, with ET set to provide 250,000 million British thermal units (MMBtu) per day starting February 2028 [3] - Current natural gas pipeline projects are now distributed across all major U.S. regions to support the growing utility and industrial power demand [4] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The Alerian Energy Infrastructure ETF (ENFR) provides substantial exposure to U.S. and Canadian midstream companies focused on natural gas infrastructure, accounting for nearly 70% of its portfolio [4] - ENFR tracks the Alerian Midstream Energy Select Index (AMEI), which yields 5.5% as of January 14 [5] Group 3: Regional Developments - In the Southwest, ET is adding 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas capacity by late 2029 [8] - DT Midstream (DTM) and TC Energy (TRP) are also expanding their capacities in the Midwest by 2029 [8] - In the Northeast, companies like Williams (WMB), Enbridge (ENB), and TRP are expanding their reach, while WMB and Kinder Morgan (KMI) are increasing capacity in the Southeast from 2027 to 2029 [8] - ET is enhancing capacity in Texas to support growth in power plants and data centers, while KMI is working on a project to meet liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand next year [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for diversification in investment portfolios, particularly focusing on Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. as an alternative to the AI growth narrative [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is being considered for investment due to its value proposition amidst a broader market focus on AI growth stocks [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes a long-term horizon of 5-10 years, advocating for a balanced portfolio that includes growth, value, and dividend-paying stocks, with a particular inclination towards value investments [1].

Group 1: Market Signals and Sector Performance - The current AI-driven tech rally is attracting general investors, while "smart money" is shifting towards defensive sectors like Energy and Healthcare, indicating a potential late-cycle economic warning [2][3] - The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) have increased by 6.4% and 12.3% respectively since September 2025, outperforming the S&P 500's 4.18% gain [3] - Individual stocks in these sectors have shown significant gains, with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) up 17% and Halliburton (HAL) up 32%, while the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) has only returned 4.41% [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP appears strong, with a reported increase of 4.3% in Q3 and an estimated 5.3% for Q4, but underlying issues suggest a weakening economy [4] - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.4% from 4% in January 2025, with layoffs surging to 1.2 million last year, marking a 58% increase from 2024 [5] - Inflation remains a concern, with the Consumer Price Index indicating a December inflation rate of 2.7%, up from 2.3% in April, driven by rising tariffs [7]

Core Insights - Oracle's rapid growth in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) is a crucial indicator of long-term revenue sustainability amidst uneven cloud spending visibility [1] - The significant increase in backlog provides Oracle with multi-year revenue clarity, enhancing confidence in sustained growth beyond fiscal 2026 [1] RPO Growth - In Q2 fiscal 2026, Oracle reported RPO of $523 billion, more than quadrupling year over year, driven by large, long-duration cloud and AI infrastructure contracts with major clients like Meta and NVIDIA [2] - Near-term RPO, representing revenues expected to be recognized within the next 12 months, increased by 40% year over year, indicating rapid backlog monetization and reduced reliance on long-term contract execution [2][10] - A substantial portion of RPO is linked to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), GPU-intensive AI workloads, and multicloud database deployments, which are experiencing stable demand [3] Revenue Outlook - Oracle's RPO expansion strengthens its long-term growth outlook, with projected incremental revenues of $4 billion for fiscal 2027, alongside an unchanged fiscal 2026 revenue forecast of $67 billion [4] - The Zacks model forecasts total revenue growth of 16.7% in fiscal 2026 and 15.5% in fiscal 2027, reflecting optimism regarding Oracle's backlog strength translating into measurable revenue growth [4] Competitive Landscape - Oracle's cloud and AI infrastructure business competes directly with major players like Alphabet and Microsoft for large-scale enterprise and AI-driven contracts [5] - Alphabet's cloud backlog reached $155 billion in Q3 2025, benefiting from strong growth in AI infrastructure and customer adoption of AI tools [6] - Microsoft reported a 40% year-over-year growth in Azure and other cloud services, with its commercial remaining performance obligations expanding by 51% to $392 billion, indicating strong multi-year demand visibility [7] Stock Performance and Valuation - Oracle's shares have declined by 19.8% in the past six months, underperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's growth of 18.9% [8] - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month Price/Earnings ratio of 24.63x, lower than the industry average of 27.76x, and carries a Value Score of D [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Oracle's fiscal 2026 earnings is $7.38 per share, reflecting a 22.39% growth over fiscal 2025 [14]

Here's the thing about TSMC earnings: they're not just a company report. They're a health check on the entire AI supply chain. When TSMC beats, it means Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD), Apple (AAPL), and every hyperscaler building out AI infrastructure are all pulling chips as fast as the fabs can stamp them out. The Numbers That Matter The headline profit beat obscures how dominant the quarter really was. Advanced chips—those measuring 7- nanometer or smaller—accounted for 77% of wafer revenue in Q4, up from 74% ...

Group 1: Company Performance and Developments - Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) is recognized as a strong long-term growth stock, with Jefferies reaffirming a Buy rating and setting a price target of $1,300.00 following positive trial results for its drugs Taltz and Zepbound [1] - The TOGETHER-PsA study demonstrated that the combination of Taltz and Zepbound achieved a primary endpoint of 50% improvement in psoriatic arthritis activity and a weight drop of ≥10%, outperforming Taltz monotherapy [2] - Eli Lilly announced the acquisition of Ventyx Biosciences, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, for $14.00 per share, totaling an equity value of approximately $1.2 billion [3][4] Group 2: Drug Efficacy and Market Position - The combination of Taltz and Zepbound resulted in a 64% relative increase in patients achieving ACR50 compared to Taltz alone, marking Taltz as the first biologic with comprehensive treatment data for psoriatic arthritis [2] - Eli Lilly is actively securing its position in the obesity drug market, leveraging the efficacy of its products to enhance its competitive edge [2]

Core Viewpoint - Oracle Corporation has experienced significant fluctuations in its stock performance, driven by its aggressive investments in AI and cloud infrastructure, but faces challenges related to debt and revenue conversion from its backlog [1][4][10]. Company Overview - Oracle Corporation is a leading global technology company specializing in cloud infrastructure, software, and hardware, with a market capitalization of $570.4 billion [2]. - The company is renowned for its Oracle Database, the first commercially available SQL-based relational database management system, and offers a suite of AI-powered enterprise applications [2]. Stock Performance - Oracle shares have seen a 4% increase in the last month but are down 1.2% year-to-date. In 2025, shares rose 19.6%, outperforming the S&P 500 [1]. - A notable spike occurred in September when ORCL stock jumped nearly 36% in a single session, pushing year-to-date gains close to 100% [1]. Investment and Debt Concerns - Oracle's aggressive expansion into AI data centers has led to substantial capital expenditures, totaling approximately $12 billion in Q2 fiscal 2026, up from $8.5 billion in the previous period [10]. - The company's debt has reached about $124 billion, a 39% year-over-year increase, raising concerns about financial risk and sustainability [10]. Backlog and Revenue Conversion - Oracle's backlog stood at $523 billion at the end of Q2 fiscal 2026, a fivefold increase from the same quarter a year earlier, with a nearly $70 billion increase in the latest quarter [11]. - However, only 10% of this backlog is expected to be realized as revenue within the next 12 months, raising concerns about a potential "deployment gap" [11]. Customer Concentration Risk - A significant portion of Oracle's backlog, approximately 57.3%, is tied to contracts with OpenAI, which introduces customer concentration risk amid uncertainties regarding OpenAI's funding and competitive position [11]. Analyst Sentiment - Wall Street analysts maintain a generally bullish outlook on Oracle, with a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating. Among 41 analysts, 29 recommend a "Strong Buy," and the mean price target for ORCL stock is $304.03, indicating a 57% upside potential from current levels [13].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, the company generated earnings per share (EPS) of $14.01, with a return on equity (ROE) of 16% and a return on tangible equity (ROTE) of 17.1% [3][26] - For the full year, EPS was $51.32, representing a 27% increase compared to the previous year, with an ROE of 15% and an ROTE of 16%, improving by 230 and 250 basis points respectively [3][26] - Total revenues for Q4 were $13.5 billion, with full-year revenues reaching $41.5 billion, an 18% increase year-over-year [26][27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global Banking & Markets (GBM) produced record revenues of $41.5 billion for the year, with investment banking fees of $2.6 billion in Q4, up 25% year-over-year [27][29] - FICC net revenues were $3.1 billion in Q4, up 12% year-over-year, while equities net revenues reached $4.3 billion, with equities financing results hitting a quarterly record of $2.1 billion, up 42% year-over-year [29][30] - Asset & Wealth Management (AWM) revenues were $16.7 billion for 2025, with a pre-tax margin of 25% and record management fees of $3.1 billion in Q4, up 10% year-over-year [30][31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The investment banking backlog rose for the seventh consecutive quarter to a four-year high, primarily driven by advisory activities [29][72] - Total assets under supervision in AWM reached a record $3.6 trillion, driven by $66 billion of long-term fee-based net inflows [31][32] - Alternative assets under supervision totaled $420 billion at the end of Q4, contributing to $645 million in management fees [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to continue executing its strategy to grow and strengthen its position as a leading financial institution, focusing on client service, integrity, and excellence [4][5] - The firm is narrowing its strategic focus, including the transition of the Apple Card portfolio and enhancing its wealth management capabilities through partnerships with RIAs [7][18] - The introduction of One Goldman Sachs 3.0, an operating model propelled by AI, aims to improve efficiency and accountability across the organization [23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the investment banking outlook for 2026, citing catalysts such as corporate strategic repositioning and increased sponsor activity [9][60] - The company believes it has raised the floor for returns significantly, with a focus on durable revenues that are less affected by market downturns [43][44] - Management remains cautious about potential economic shifts and geopolitical developments that could impact the operating environment [33][34] Other Important Information - The company announced a $0.50 increase in its quarterly dividend to $4.50, representing a 50% increase from the previous year, and has $32 billion of remaining buyback capacity [19][33] - The firm has diversified its funding structure, with deposits growing to $501 billion, representing approximately 40% of total funding [21][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does the company plan to scale wealth management? - Management highlighted the strength of its ultra-high net worth franchise and plans to expand through third-party wealth channels, including partnerships with RIAs [37][39] Question: What is the level of confidence in maintaining mid-teens returns? - Management expressed confidence in having raised the floor for returns significantly, with a focus on durable revenues and a diversified business model [42][44] Question: Is there potential for transformational M&A? - Management indicated that while the bar for significant acquisitions is high, they are open to opportunities that align with their strategic goals [52][54] Question: What is the current state of the capital market cycle? - Management believes the environment is set up for constructive M&A and capital markets activity in 2026, with potential for exceeding previous activity levels [58][60] Question: How does the company view its buyback strategy? - Management confirmed that buybacks remain an important part of their capital deployment strategy, balancing between supporting client activity and driving shareholder returns [65][66]