农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/11 棉花：棉花库存数据下降过快，以此计算的表需较高，若这样下去，季末去库不可避免，带动近期棉价上行，不过上方仍有套保盘压制，同时 下游订单、利润和开机均较弱，对高棉价接受度也有限，建议对本轮上涨持谨慎态度。若需求进一步恶化或出现宏观风险，棉价或进一步下 行，若均没有，将持续在目前位置震荡。 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/07/04 | - | 2330 | 2450 | 2460 | -23 | 0 | 423 | 2850 | 2950 | 128 | -66 | | 2025/07/07 | - | 2320 | 2420 | 2460 | -6 | 10 | 423 | 2850 | 2950 | 165 | -6 ...

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/09 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/07/02 | 2260 | 2330 | 2478 | 2460 | -33 | 0 470 | 2850 | 2950 | 114 | -66 | | 2025/07/03 | 2260 | 2330 | 2458 | 2460 | -33 | 0 431 | 2850 | 2950 | 114 | -66 | | 2025/07/04 | - | 2330 | 2450 | 2460 | -23 | 0 423 | 2850 | 2950 | 128 | -66 | | 2025/07/07 | - | 2320 | 2420 | 2460 | -6 | 10 423 | 2850 | 2950 | ...

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/01 【行情分析】： 棉花：棉花库存数据下降过快，以此计算的表需较高，若这样下去，季末去库不可避免，带动近期棉价上行，不过上方仍有套保盘压制，同时 下游订单、利润和开机均较弱，对高棉价接受度也有限，建议对本轮上涨持谨慎态度。若需求进一步恶化或出现宏观风险，棉价或进一步下 行，若均没有，将持续在目前位置震荡。 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/06/24 2260 | 2330 | 2440 | 2460 | -59 | 0 443 | 2850 | 2950 | 168 | -63 | | 2025/06/25 2260 | 2330 | 2450 | 2460 | -47 | 0 459 | 2850 | 2950 | 113 | -63 | | 2025/06/ ...

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/06/27 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/06/20 | 2240 | 2330 | 2430 | 2460 | -79 | 0 410 | 2800 | 2950 | 144 | -72 | | 2025/06/23 | - | 2330 | 2440 | 2460 | -78 | 0 418 | 2850 | 2950 | 151 | -70 | | 2025/06/24 | - | 2330 | 2440 | 2460 | -59 | 0 443 | 2850 | 2950 | 168 | -63 | | 2025/06/25 | - | 2330 | 2450 | 2460 | -47 | 0 459 | 2850 | 2950 | 113 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: In the short - term, corn spot prices are expected to remain strong due to low domestic inventory and weakening wheat substitution profit. In the long - term, be vigilant about the risk of falling prices in the far - month due to increased imports [3]. - **Starch**: In the short - term, reduced raw materials and high prices lead to lower procurement willingness, supporting a rebound in starch prices. In the long - term, weak downstream demand restricts price increases, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts after a small profit repair [3]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar season has mixed production indicators, and the market trades on high sugar - making ratios and production increase expectations, pressuring raw sugar. Domestically, supported by import restrictions and high basis [4]. - **Cotton**: High production this year creates strong hedging pressure, limiting price increases. Without new drivers, prices may decline if demand worsens or there are macro risks; otherwise, they will oscillate [7]. - **Eggs**: After April, farmers' willingness to cull hens increased. Recently, egg prices rebounded slightly, and the culling pace slowed. After the plum - rain season, supply reduction and demand improvement may drive prices up [15]. - **Apples**: There is a slight expected production reduction in the new season. Consumption is at the end of the peak season, and current inventory is low. However, seasonal fruits may affect market share. Monitor the realization of production reduction expectations [19]. - **Pigs**: Spot prices are in a supply - demand game. Futures contracts reflect cycle and seasonal expectations. The key is the inventory reduction path, and the sustainability of the recent price rebound needs attention [22]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From June 18 - 24, corn prices in some regions were stable, with the basis increasing by 19 and import profit by 25. Starch basis increased by 17, and processing profit increased by 7 [2]. - **Analysis**: Short - term strength in corn spot prices due to low inventory and weakening wheat substitution. Starch prices are supported in the short - term but restricted by weak downstream demand in the long - term [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From June 18 - 24, spot prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the basis increased by 1. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2572 [4]. - **Analysis**: International market influenced by Brazilian production indicators, domestic market supported by import restrictions and high basis [4]. Cotton - **Price Data**: From June 18 - 24, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 55, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 74. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn increased by 22, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 58 [7]. - **Analysis**: High production restricts price increases, and prices may decline or oscillate depending on demand and macro factors [7]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From June 18 - 24, egg prices in some regions were stable, with the basis decreasing by 34. The price of substitute products had little change, and the price of pigs increased by 0.21 [14]. - **Analysis**: Farmers' culling willingness increased after April. Recent price rebound and slowed culling. Post - plum - rain season, supply - demand balance may drive prices up [15]. Apples - **Price Data**: From June 18 - 24, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples was stable, and the basis of different contracts decreased to varying degrees [18]. - **Analysis**: Slight expected production reduction in the new season. Low current inventory but affected by seasonal fruits. Monitor production reduction realization [19]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From June 18 - 24, spot prices in some regions increased slightly, and the basis decreased by 10 [22]. - **Analysis**: Spot prices in supply - demand game. Futures reflect cycle and seasonality. Key is inventory reduction path and rebound sustainability [22].

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/06/24 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/06/17 | 2230 | 2320 | 2410 | 2450 | -44 | 0 391 | 2800 | 2950 | 160 | -67 | | 2025/06/18 | 2240 | 2330 | 2410 | 2450 | -33 | -10 407 | 2800 | 2950 | 151 | -73 | | 2025/06/19 | 2240 | 2330 | 2420 | 2450 | -75 | -10 400 | 2800 | 2950 | 145 | -72 | | 2025/06/20 | 2240 | 2330 | 2430 | 2460 | -79 | 0 410 | 2800 ...

| 农产品早报 | | --- | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/06/19 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/06/12 | - | 2340 | 2410 | 2460 | -32 | -10 415 | 2800 | 2950 | 135 | -92 | | 2025/06/13 | - | 2330 | 2410 | 2450 | -48 | -10 406 | 2800 | 2950 | 142 | -92 | | 2025/06/16 | - | 2330 | 2410 | 2450 | -29 | -10 358 | 2800 | 2950 | 156 | -88 | | 2025/06/17 | - | 2320 | 2410 | 2450 | -44 | 0 391 | 28 ...

| 农产品早报 | | --- | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/06/18 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/06/11 | - | 2340 | 2410 | 2460 | -34 | -10 415 | 2800 | 2950 | 136 | -92 | | 2025/06/12 | - | 2340 | 2410 | 2460 | -32 | -10 415 | 2800 | 2950 | 135 | -92 | | 2025/06/13 | - | 2330 | 2410 | 2450 | -48 | -10 406 | 2800 | 2950 | 142 | -92 | | 2025/06/16 | - | 2330 | 2410 | 2450 | -29 | -10 358 | ...

| 农产品早报 | | --- | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/06/17 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/06/10 | - | 2330 | 2390 | 2450 | -49 | -10 420 | 2800 | 2950 | 134 | -108 | | 2025/06/11 | - | 2340 | 2410 | 2460 | -34 | -10 415 | 2800 | 2950 | 136 | -92 | | 2025/06/12 | - | 2340 | 2410 | 2460 | -32 | -10 415 | 2800 | 2950 | 135 | -92 | | 2025/06/13 | - | 2330 | 2410 | 2450 | -48 | -10 406 | ...

| 农产品早报 | | --- | 白糖 现货价格 基差 进口利润 仓单 日期 柳州 南宁 昆明 柳州基差 泰国 巴西 郑盘 2025/06/09 6170 6080 5900 436 303 485 29443 2025/06/10 6170 6080 5900 453 352 535 29443 2025/06/11 6150 6050 5875 482 347 530 29216 2025/06/12 6130 6035 5855 483 384 567 29116 2025/06/13 6130 6020 5835 466 417 600 28736 变化 0 -15 -20 -17 33 33 -380 【行情分析】： 白糖：国际市场方面，受2024年干旱天气影响，巴西25/26榨季第一个月出现了单产和吨甘蔗出糖量下降的情况，不过5月上半月制糖比拉升较 快，同比增加2.9%至51.1%，市场提前交易高制糖比和增产预期，原糖承压，后续关注天气风险和产量预期差。国内跟随外盘为主，但在糖浆 预拌粉进口限制、高基差背景下，下方有支撑。 研究中心农产品团队 2025/06/16 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | ...