| 白糖 | | 现货价格 | | 基差 | | 进口利润 | 仓单 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 柳州 | 南宁 | 昆明 | 柳州基差 | 泰国 | 巴西 | 郑盘 | | 2025/08/15 | 6040 | 5980 | 5860 | 376 | 236 | 419 | 17104 | | 2025/08/18 | 6040 | 5980 | 5855 | 368 | 291 | 474 | 16932 | | 2025/08/19 | 6040 | 5980 | 5855 | 379 | 275 | 458 | 16487 | | 2025/08/20 | 6030 | 5970 | 5855 | 354 | 194 | 377 | 16245 | | 2025/08/21 | 6030 | 5970 | 5855 | 342 | 255 | 438 | 15752 | | 变化 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -12 | 61 | 61 | -493 | | 【行情分析】： | | | | | | | | | | ...

| 农产品早报 | | --- | | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/08/21 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/08/14 | 2230 | 2270 | 2428 | 2410 | -11 | 5 | 425 | 2900 | 2980 | 207 | -31 | | 2025/08/15 | - | 2270 | 2428 | 2400 | 80 | -5 | 336 | 2900 | 2980 | 241 | -31 | | 2025/08/18 | - | 2260 | 2468 | 2400 | 83 | 5 | 306 | 2900 | 2980 | 261 | -31 | | 2025/08/19 | - | ...

| | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/08/20 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/08/13 | 2230 | 2250 | 2428 | 2390 | -29 | 5 | 413 | 2900 | 2980 | 204 | -38 | | 2025/08/14 | 2230 | 2270 | 2428 | 2410 | -11 | 5 | 425 | 2900 | 2980 | 207 | -31 | | 2025/08/15 | - | 2270 | 2428 | 2400 | 80 | -5 | 336 | 2900 | 2980 | 241 | -31 | | 2025/08/18 | - | 2260 | 2468 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, corn prices will continue to fluctuate with an upper limit and a lower support. In the long - term, prices are expected to decline under pressure until domestic consumption improves or there is a reluctance to sell in production areas [3]. - Starch: In the short - term, the starch market will continue to fluctuate weakly. In the long - term, a bearish view on starch prices is maintained [3]. - Sugar: Internationally, Brazilian sugar production has uncertainties. Domestically, Zheng sugar follows the trend of raw sugar, and there is significant upward pressure on the futures price due to the upcoming arrival of a large amount of imported sugar [6]. - Cotton: It has entered a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. If there are no major macro - risks, the price decline is limited, and attention should be paid to changes in demand [9]. - Eggs: Due to supply - demand imbalance, egg prices declined in early August. Attention should be paid to the pace of old hen culling and the release of cold - stored eggs [12]. - Apples: The new - season apple production is expected to be similar to last year. The current consumption is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the situation after bag removal [14]. - Pigs: There is still medium - term supply pressure, and futures prices are at a premium. Short - term spot prices are weakly fluctuating, and attention should be paid to factors such as the pace of slaughter, weather, and policies [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From August 12 - 18, the price in Changchun remained unchanged, while in Jinzhou it decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and in Weifang it increased by 40 yuan/ton. For starch, the prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained unchanged [2]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, corn prices will fluctuate, and starch prices will be weakly fluctuating. In the long - term, corn prices are expected to decline, and a bearish view on starch prices is maintained [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From August 12 - 18, the spot prices in Liuzhou and Nanning remained unchanged, while in Kunming it decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The import profit increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 172 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, Brazilian sugar production has uncertainties. Domestically, there is significant upward pressure on the futures price due to the upcoming arrival of a large amount of imported sugar [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From August 12 - 18, the price of 3128 cotton remained unchanged, and the price of imported M - grade US cotton decreased slightly. The spot price of Vietnamese yarn increased by 50 yuan/ton [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Cotton has entered a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. If there are no major macro - risks, the price decline is limited [9]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From August 12 - 18, egg prices in various production areas increased, with the largest increase of 0.22 yuan in Hebei and Liaoning. The basis decreased by 30 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Due to supply - demand imbalance, egg prices declined in early August. Attention should be paid to the pace of old hen culling and the release of cold - stored eggs [12]. Apples - **Price Data**: From August 12 - 18, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged, and the national apple inventory decreased by 76,000 tons [13][14]. - **Market Analysis**: The new - season apple production is expected to be similar to last year. The current consumption is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the situation after bag removal [14]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From August 12 - 18, pig prices in various production areas decreased slightly, and the basis increased by 25 [14]. - **Market Analysis**: There is still medium - term supply pressure, and futures prices are at a premium. Short - term spot prices are weakly fluctuating, and attention should be paid to factors such as the pace of slaughter, weather, and policies [14].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides market data and analysis for various agricultural products including corn, starch, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, and pigs on August 18, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Corn and Starch Market Data - This week, 395,000 tons of imported corn were auctioned, with 67,000 tons sold, and the trading situation became sluggish. The price of starch was slightly reduced, and enterprises were still operating at a loss [3] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn prices will continue to fluctuate within a certain range. Starch prices will follow the raw material price fluctuations and are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [3] - Long - term: Corn prices are expected to decline under pressure, and the starch price outlook remains bearish [3] Group 3: Sugar Market Data - From August 11 - 15, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming remained mostly stable, the basis decreased by 5, and the import profit increased [6] Market Analysis - Internationally, the sugar price is under pressure due to the peak crushing season in Brazil. Domestically, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price has a smaller fluctuation range, and the futures price faces upward pressure [6] Group 4: Cotton Market Data - From August 11 - 15, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 30, the import profit of M - grade US cotton was relatively stable, and the number of warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 117 [9] Market Analysis - The cotton market has entered a consolidation phase. If there are no major macro - risks, the low in April can be regarded as the long - term bottom, and the downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to changes in demand [9] Group 5: Eggs Market Data - From August 11 - 15, the egg prices in Hebei and Liaoning remained stable, while those in Shandong and Henan increased by 0.1. The basis increased by 50 [14] Market Analysis - In July, the egg price rebounded rapidly due to supply and demand factors. In early August, due to sufficient inventory in food factories and weak demand, the egg price declined. Attention should be paid to the chicken culling rhythm and cold - storage egg release [14] Group 6: Apples Market Data - From August 11 - 15, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7800 on August 11 - 13 and then dropped to 7300 on August 14 - 15. The national inventory decreased by 44 [15][16] Market Analysis - The new - season apples are in the growth stage. The yield in the western region may increase, while that in Shandong is expected to decrease by about 20%. The current - season apple consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a five - year low [16] Group 7: Pigs Market Data - From August 11 - 15, the pig prices in different regions showed slight fluctuations, and the basis decreased by 95 [16] Market Analysis - The reduction of pig production capacity is insufficient, and there is still medium - term supply pressure. The futures price has a premium. The short - term spot price will fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [16]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Report author: Research Center's Agricultural Products Team [2] Group 2: Corn/Starch Data Summary - Corn prices in Changchun, Jinzhou, and Shekou remained stable, while prices in Weifang decreased by 6 yuan. The basis decreased by 19 yuan, trade profit decreased by 5 yuan, and import profit increased by 41 yuan [3]. - Starch prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained stable, the basis decreased by 6 yuan, and processing profit increased by 10 yuan [3]. Core Views - Corn: In the short term, the market atmosphere has eased due to reserve auctions, and new - season corn is about to be listed, leading to a slight increase in market circulation and a slight decline in prices. In the long term, if the import profit space persists, it may increase forward import orders, and the supply increase after the new - season corn is listed may put downward pressure on prices [4]. - Starch: In the short term, starch prices fluctuate with raw material prices, and the inventory remains high, so the market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. In the long term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs lead to a bearish outlook [4]. Group 3: Sugar Data Summary - The spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming increased by 20 yuan, 10 yuan, and 40 yuan respectively. The basis decreased by 29 yuan, and the import profit increased by 50 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 324 [7]. Core Views - Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, but due to lower - than - expected yields, there may be a corrective rebound in raw sugar prices. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar follows raw sugar, and the large - scale arrival of imported sugar will put pressure on the market [7]. Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Data Summary - The price of 3128 cotton increased by 100 yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 82. The price of Vietnamese yarn increased by 50 yuan, and the import profit increased by 58 yuan. The 32S spinning profit decreased by 55 yuan [8]. Core Views - Cotton has entered a consolidation phase. If there are no major macro - risks, the low in April can be regarded as the long - term bottom, and the downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to changes in demand [8]. Group 5: Eggs Data Summary - Egg prices in Hubei increased by 0.03 yuan, and the basis increased by 10 yuan. The price of white - feather broilers decreased by 0.05 yuan, the price of yellow - feather broilers increased by 0.10 yuan, and the price of pigs decreased by 0.01 yuan [9]. Core Views - Egg prices rebounded in mid - July due to supply and demand factors, then corrected. From mid - August, demand is expected to pick up, but high inventory may limit the rebound height. Attention should be paid to disease risks and vegetable price fluctuations [9]. Group 6: Apples Data Summary - The spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained stable, and the national inventory decreased by 17,000 tons, with Shandong and Shaanxi inventories decreasing by 20,000 tons. The 1 - month basis decreased by 17 yuan, the 5 - month basis decreased by 20 yuan [10][11]. Core Views - The new - season apples are in the growth stage. The national output is expected to be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is the lowest in the past five years. The spot price is stable, and attention should be paid to the situation after bag removal [11]. Group 7: Pigs Data Summary - Pig prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, and Anhui Hefei increased by 0.05 yuan, 0.05 yuan, and 0.15 yuan respectively. The basis increased by 235 yuan [11]. Core Views - The spot price rebounded over the weekend due to reduced supply in some areas, but demand has not improved significantly. There is still medium - term supply pressure, but there are also policy expectations in the long term. The futures market is driven by sentiment, and attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [11].

玉米：本周，储备继续进行玉米拍卖的操作，合计拍卖进口玉米59.25万吨，成交11.77万吨。短期看，在储备持续拍储的操作下，市场氛围有 所缓和，并且新季玉米即将上市，贸易商开始兑现手中利润，导致市场流通小幅增加，报价小幅走弱。不过在进口没有增量的前提下，旧作平 衡表仍旧偏紧，现货下方空间预期有限，在新季玉米上市前维持震荡思路应对。中长期维度，进口盈利空间若持续存在，可能推动远期进口订 单增加；同时，新季玉米种植成本较旧作有所下降，待新粮大量上市后，供给增量或对新季玉米价格形成利空压力。 | 农产品早报 | | --- | | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/08/13 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/08/06 | 2230 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, with reserve auctions and new - season corn approaching, the market supply increases slightly and prices weaken, but the downside is limited. In the long - term, potential import growth and new - season supply increase may pressure prices [3]. - Starch: In the short - term, it follows raw material price fluctuations, with high inventory and is expected to be weak. In the long - term, high inventory and lower raw material costs lead to a bearish outlook [3]. - Sugar: Internationally, Brazilian supply pressure affects prices, but there may be a rebound. Domestically, large imports will put pressure on the market [6]. - Cotton: It is in a consolidation phase, and if there are no major macro - risks, the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [7]. - Eggs: After a price rebound and correction, demand may pick up in mid - August, but high inventory may limit the upside [9]. - Apples: New - season production may be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and prices are stable [12]. - Pigs: Spot prices rebounded slightly, but demand is not improved. There is medium - term supply pressure, and futures need spot verification [12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From August 5 - 11, corn prices in some regions changed slightly, with a maximum decrease of 8 yuan/ton in Weifang. Starch processing profit increased by 22 yuan [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Reserve auctions and new - season corn impact the corn market. Starch is affected by raw material prices and high inventory [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From August 5 - 11, sugar prices in major regions decreased, and import profit decreased significantly, with a maximum reduction of 77 yuan [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Brazilian supply and domestic imports influence the sugar market [6]. Cotton - **Price Data**: From August 5 - 11, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 40 yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 128 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Cotton is in a waiting phase for demand verification, and the downside is limited under certain conditions [7]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From August 5 - 11, egg prices in major production areas increased, with a maximum increase of 0.22 yuan. The basis increased by 141 [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Egg prices rebounded due to supply - demand factors, then corrected, and may rise again with upcoming festivals, but high inventory is a constraint [9]. Apples - **Price Data**: From August 5 - 11, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained stable, and the basis for different contracts changed significantly [11][12]. - **Market Analysis**: New - season apples are in the growth stage, and consumption is in the off - season [12]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From August 5 - 11, pig prices in some regions were stable or changed slightly, and the basis increased by 40 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Spot prices rebounded slightly, but demand is weak. There is medium - term supply pressure and policy expectations [12].

| 农产品早报 | | --- | | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/08/11 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/08/04 | 2230 | 2290 | 2458 | 2410 | 6 | -10 | 376 | 2900 | 2980 | 191 | -71 | | 2025/08/05 | 2230 | 2270 | 2468 | 2400 | 21 | 0 | 375 | 2900 | 2980 | 201 | -73 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/06 | 2230 | 2 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product morning report released by the research center's agricultural product team on August 5, 2025 [1] Group 2: Corn and Starch Price Data - From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the price of corn in Changchun remained at 2230 (except for August 4 with no data), and in Jinzhou it was stable at 2290; the price in Weifang was stable at 2458, and in Shekou it decreased by 10 to 2410 - The basis of corn increased by 13 to 6, the trade profit decreased by 10, and the import profit increased by 39 to 376 - The price of starch in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2900 and 2980 respectively; the basis increased by 4 to 191, and the processing profit remained at -71 [2] Market Analysis - For corn, the continuous auction of reserve imported corn this week had a transaction rate of 27% and 31%. The import auction aims to relieve supply tension, not to suppress domestic prices. With a low transaction rate, the increase in market supply is limited. Currently, supply mainly relies on old - crop inventory and wheat substitution. In the short term, with a tight balance sheet in the old - crop season, port corn inventory continued to decline, and the current price has strong support. In the long - term, if the import profit space persists, it may increase forward import orders. Also, the planting cost of new - season corn has decreased compared to the old crop, and the increase in supply after the large - scale listing of new grain may put downward pressure on new - season corn prices - For starch, this week, starch quotes showed differentiation, with prices in the Northeast decreasing and those in Shandong increasing. The transaction situation improved slightly, and inventory remained at a high level. In the short term, starch prices fluctuate with raw material prices, and deep - processing is still in a loss situation. After a round of correction, the downside support is relatively strong, and it is expected to have a weak rebound in the short term. In the long - term, high finished - product starch inventory restricts the enterprise's price - adjustment space, and with the expected decline in new - season raw material costs, a bearish view on starch prices is maintained [3] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Liuzhou increased by 50 to 6080, in Nanning remained unchanged at 6030, and in Kunming decreased by 15 to 5865 - The basis in Liuzhou increased by 65 to 362, the import profit from Thailand increased by 39 to 334, and from Brazil increased by 39 to 517. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 70 to 19373 [6] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, and supply pressure is weighing on international sugar prices. The market has already priced in the expected increase in production due to a high sugar - making ratio. As of now, due to continuously low yield per unit and sugar extraction rate year - on - year, the uncertainty of Brazil's later - stage production has increased, and there may be a corrective rebound in raw sugar. It is necessary to continuously monitor the weather conditions in the producing areas and the bi - weekly report data - Domestically, the market generally follows raw sugar, but due to large - scale price fixing by processing sugar mills, the fluctuation range of Zhengzhou sugar is smaller than that of raw sugar. A large amount of imported sugar is about to arrive at ports, and the corresponding out - of - quota import cost is in the range of 5750 - 5900 yuan/ton, putting significant pressure on the upper side of the futures market [6] Group 4: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Data - From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 60 to 14845, and the import profit of imported M - grade US cotton decreased - The number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 123 to 9032 - The price of Vietnamese yarn remained at 2.49, the spot price of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 50 to 20650, the import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 13 to 265, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 113 to -937 [7] Market Analysis - For cotton, as the commodity market sentiment weakened, the long - position liquidation in the 09 contract led to a strong backwardation market. However, with the 9 - 1 spread reaching -200 and still far from delivery, it is advisable to reduce positions and take profits. In the future, the market will test the recovery of downstream demand, and if it performs well, it is expected to be reflected in mid - to late August [7] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the egg prices in Hebei decreased by 0.17 to 2.87, in Liaoning decreased by 0.18 to 2.80, in Shandong decreased by 0.15 to 2.80, in Henan decreased by 0.10 to 2.85, and in Hubei decreased by 0.27 to 3.33 - The basis decreased by 54 to 175 - The price of white - feather broilers increased by 0.05 to 3.45, the price of yellow - feather broilers increased by 0.05 to 3.95, and the price of live pigs decreased by 0.27 to 20.33 [9] Market Analysis - In mid - July, high temperatures led to a decline in the egg - laying rate of laying hens, and after the plum - rain season, the concentrated replenishment demand at all levels drove the egg price to rebound rapidly from a low level. Later, due to the release of some cold - storage eggs and unfavorable weather for storage and transportation, the market sales slowed down, and the egg price corrected. It is expected that starting from mid - August, the stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival, National Day, and school openings will gradually start, and the recovery in demand may drive the spot price up again. However, the early rebound in the spot price in mid - June delayed the process of capacity reduction, and high inventory and cold - storage egg inventory may limit the height of the subsequent seasonal rebound. In addition, attention should be paid to potential factors such as disease risks and vegetable price fluctuations that may affect the egg price [10] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7800 - The national apple inventory decreased by 59, Shandong inventory decreased by 38, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 68 - The 1 - month basis decreased to 56, the 5 - month basis decreased to -38, and the 10 - month basis decreased to -26 [12][13] Market Analysis - In the new - crop season, apple bagging in various producing areas has ended, and the apples are in the growth stage, waiting for bag removal. In the western region, the previous gale weather led to uneven fruit setting. Although the yield per unit is expected to increase compared to last year, the phenomenon of tree felling in recent years is relatively serious. In the Shandong producing area, the output in this season is expected to decrease by about 20%. Nationally, the output in the new - crop season will not differ much from last year, and subsequent situations need to be continuously monitored. On the consumption side, the apple consumption in the 2024/25 season has entered the off - season, and the apparent inventory is the lowest in the past five years. The inventory reduction in the main producing areas has slowed down recently. In terms of spot prices, the price has been stable recently, and seasonal fruits have occupied the market share of apples. Attention should be paid to the situation after bag removal [13] Group 7: Live Pigs Price Data - From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the price of live pigs in Henan Kaifeng decreased by 0.30 to 14.08, in Hubei Xiangyang decreased by 0.30 to 14.05, in Shandong Linyi decreased by 0.35 to 14.02, in Anhui Hefei decreased by 0.45 to 14.25, and in Jiangsu Nantong decreased by 0.50 to 14.30 - The basis decreased by 185 to 140 [13] Market Analysis - The reduction of live - pig production capacity is insufficient, and long - term supply pressure still exists. The futures market has frequently seen emotional rallies, trading on the expected seasonal rebound of the spot market and macro - and micro - policy expectations, which still need to be verified by the spot market. After the recent cooling of macro - sentiment, the market is trading on weak reality. In the short term, the spot market is in a weak and volatile game. There is pressure on live - pig slaughter in August, but there are also supporting factors in the later seasonal period. Continuous attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [13]