淀粉：进入九月后，企业开始降低库存备战新作季，因此开始对原料玉米采取压价操作。短期看，随着收粮成本下探，产业预计顺势调低成品 淀粉报价，以降价换销路的操作降低库存压力。中长期看，成品淀粉库存高企限制企业调价空间，叠加新季原料成本预期下移，因此对淀粉价 格仍维持偏空思路。 | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/09/30 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/09/23 | 2230 | 2250 | 2264 | 2420 | 92 | 35 | 286 | 2750 | 2850 | 258 | -51 | | 2025/09/24 | 2230 | 2250 | 2264 | 2400 | 86 | 15 | 258 | 2750 ...

【行情分析】： 玉米：短期看，新季玉米即将上市，企业陆续开始降低对于老玉米的采购需求，终端需求减弱的背景下价格偏弱运行。不过，由于当下整体渠 道、产业库存水平处于低位，所以玉米的跌幅预计也不大，继续维持弱震荡格局。中长期视角，重点关注新季玉米上市后产区售粮积极性。在 新季产量增加与成本下滑的大背景下，价格预计仍将承压下行，直至国内消费出现好转或产区显现惜售情绪，行情才可能迎来转折。 淀粉：进入九月后，企业开始降低库存备战新作季，因此开始对原料玉米采取压价操作。短期看，随着收粮成本下探，产业预计顺势调低成品 淀粉报价，以降价换销路的操作降低库存压力。中长期看，成品淀粉库存高企限制企业调价空间，叠加新季原料成本预期下移，因此对淀粉价 格仍维持偏空思路。 白糖 现货价格 基差 进口利润 仓单 日期 柳州 南宁 昆明 柳州基差 泰国 巴西 郑盘 2025/09/22 5900 5800 5820 448 493 674 10315 2025/09/23 5890 5780 5800 446 366 547 10022 2025/09/24 5890 5780 5800 393 358 539 9854 2025/09 ...

【行情分析】： 玉米：短期看，新季玉米即将上市，企业陆续开始降低对于老玉米的采购需求，终端需求减弱的背景下价格偏弱运行。不过，由于当下整体渠 道、产业库存水平处于低位，所以玉米的跌幅预计也不大，继续维持弱震荡格局。中长期视角，重点关注新季玉米上市后产区售粮积极性。在 新季产量增加与成本下滑的大背景下，价格预计仍将承压下行，直至国内消费出现好转或产区显现惜售情绪，行情才可能迎来转折。 淀粉：进入九月后，企业开始降低库存备战新作季，因此开始对原料玉米采取压价操作。短期看，随着收粮成本下探，产业预计顺势调低成品 淀粉报价，以降价换销路的操作降低库存压力。中长期看，成品淀粉库存高企限制企业调价空间，叠加新季原料成本预期下移，因此对淀粉价 格仍维持偏空思路。 白糖 现货价格 基差 进口利润 仓单 日期 柳州 南宁 昆明 柳州基差 泰国 巴西 郑盘 2025/09/18 5960 5840 5850 486 517 698 10629 2025/09/19 5940 5830 5845 479 470 651 10364 2025/09/22 5900 5800 5820 448 493 674 10315 2025/0 ...

Report Information - Report Date: September 22, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report [18] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - **Corn**: In the short - term, new - season corn is about to be listed, and terminal demand is weakening, so the price is weak, but the decline is limited due to low inventory. In the long - term, with increased production and lower costs, the price is expected to decline until consumption improves or there is reluctance to sell in production areas [3] - **Starch**: In September, companies start to destock for the new season, pressuring corn prices. In the short - term, as the cost of purchasing corn decreases, the price of starch is expected to be lowered to reduce inventory. In the long - term, high inventory and lower expected raw material costs keep the outlook for starch prices bearish [3] - **Sugar**: Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, pressuring international sugar prices. The uncertainty of future production increases. Domestically, the market follows the trend of raw sugar, with downward pressure on the price due to the arrival of imported sugar [4] - **Cotton**: The market is in a shock state, waiting for demand verification. Without major macro - risk events, the April low may be the long - term bottom, and the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [6] - **Eggs**: Since September, due to increased demand for school opening and festival stocking, the spot price has rebounded. High inventory and cold - storage eggs limit the price increase, but the price is unlikely to fall below the feed cost. Attention should be paid to the situation of chicken culling and cold - storage egg release [9] - **Apples**: The new - season apple harvest is approaching. The national production is expected to be similar to last year. The current consumption is in the off - season, and the price is temporarily stable. Attention should be paid to the final production [11] - **Pigs**: There are policy - related expectations for a production capacity inflection point next year, but in the medium - term, supply pressure still exists due to insufficient production capacity reduction. The spot price is hitting new lows, and the futures market is trading on weak reality. Attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15] Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the prices in Changchun, Jinzhou, and other places remained mostly unchanged, with the base difference of corn changing by 9, and the base difference of starch changing by 8 [2] - **Analysis**: Short - term price of corn is weak, and long - term it is under pressure. For starch, short - term price reduction to reduce inventory, long - term bearish outlook [3] Sugar - **Price Data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and other places decreased, with the base difference changing by - 7, and the import profit changing by - 47 [4] - **Analysis**: International supply pressure affects prices, and domestic prices are under pressure due to imported sugar [4] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 20, and the inventory (warehouse receipts + forecasts) decreased by 206 [6] - **Analysis**: The market is in shock, waiting for demand verification, and the downward space is limited [6] Eggs - **Price Data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the prices in Hebei, Liaoning, and other places decreased, with the base difference changing by - 237 [9] - **Analysis**: Spot price rebounded in September, but high inventory limits the increase, and the price is unlikely to fall below the feed cost [9] Apples - **Price Data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged, and the base differences in different months changed slightly [10][11] - **Analysis**: The new - season production is expected to be similar to last year, the current consumption is in the off - season, and the price is stable [11] Pigs - **Price Data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, and other places changed slightly, and the base difference changed by 5 [15] - **Analysis**: There are policy expectations for the future, but medium - term supply pressure exists, and the spot price is hitting new lows [15]

农产品早报 | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/09/18 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/09/11 | 2230 | 2260 | 2270 | 2430 | 58 | 40 | 320 | 2800 | 2850 | 228 | -27 | | 2025/09/12 | 2230 | 2260 | 2270 | 2430 | 63 | 40 | 321 | 2800 | 2850 | 231 | -27 | | 2025/09/15 | 2230 | 2260 | 2264 | 2420 | 93 | 30 | 270 | 2750 | 2850 | 262 | -27 | | 2025/09/16 | - | 2260 ...

农产品早报 | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/09/16 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/09/09 | 2230 | 2270 | 2280 | 2440 | 56 | 35 | 308 | 2800 | 2850 | 295 | -24 | | 2025/09/10 | 2230 | 2260 | 2280 | 2430 | 63 | 35 | 296 | 2800 | 2850 | 217 | -27 | | 2025/09/11 | 2230 | 2260 | 2270 | 2430 | 58 | 40 | 320 | 2800 | 2850 | 228 | -27 | | 2025/09/12 | 2230 | 2 ...

农产品早报 | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/09/15 | | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 锦州 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/09/08 2230 | 2270 2300 | 2440 | 39 | 35 315 | 2800 | 2900 | 278 | -21 | | 2025/09/09 2230 | 2270 2280 | 2440 | 56 | 35 308 | 2800 | 2850 | 295 | -24 | | 2025/09/10 2230 | 2260 2280 | 2430 | 63 | 35 296 | 2800 | 2850 | 217 | -27 | | 2025/09/11 2230 | 2260 2270 | 2430 | 58 | 40 320 | 2800 | 2850 | 228 | -27 | | 2025 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Corn**: In the short - term, new - season corn is about to be listed, causing a wait - and - see attitude in the market. Spot prices at ports are weakening, pulling down the futures prices. However, due to limited supply increase, there is no expectation of a sharp decline. In the long - term, prices are expected to decline under the background of increased production and lower costs, and may turn around when domestic consumption improves or farmers are reluctant to sell [2]. - **Starch**: In the short - term, starch prices fluctuate with raw material prices. High inventory and low downstream demand pressure prices. In the long - term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs keep the outlook bearish [2]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, pressuring international sugar prices. Uncertainty in Brazil's sugar production remains. Domestically, following the international trend, with imported sugar arriving and lower processing sugar prices, there is pressure on the futures [2]. - **Cotton**: The market is in a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. Without major macro - risks, the April low may be the long - term bottom, and the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [3]. - **Eggs**: Reduced mid - autumn festival stocking demand, high supply, and high cold - storage egg inventory suppress egg prices. Although there is a recent spot price rebound, it is still restricted, and the progress of culling laying hens is slowed [6]. - **Apples**: New - season apple production may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and seasonal fruits are squeezing the market share of apples. Attention should be paid to the final production after the bag - removing season [9]. - **Pigs**: The market is in a range - bound oscillation. There are policy expectations for a production capacity inflection point next year and seasonal support this year, but mid - term supply pressure remains due to insufficient production capacity reduction. Near - term contracts are adjusting for premium, and far - term contracts still have a slight premium expectation, waiting for spot price verification [9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From September 5 - 11, corn prices in some regions were stable or slightly decreased, and starch prices also showed a downward trend. The basis, trade profit, and import profit of corn changed, and the processing profit of starch was negative [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Reserve corn auctions had a slight improvement in trading volume. New - season corn listing and market sentiment affected prices. Starch producers may sell at lower prices to clear inventory [2]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From September 5 - 11, spot prices in some regions were relatively stable, and the basis and import profit changed. The number of warehouse receipts decreased [2][13]. - **Market Analysis**: International supply pressure from Brazil and domestic imported sugar arrivals affected the market [2]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From September 5 - 11, the price of 3128 cotton decreased. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn and the 32S spinning profit changed [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is waiting for demand to pick up [3]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From September 5 - 11, egg prices in some production areas were stable or increased slightly, and the basis increased. The prices of substitute products changed slightly [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Reduced stocking demand and high inventory affected prices, and the recent spot price rebound was restricted [6]. Apples - **Price Data**: From September 5 - 11, the spot prices of Shandong apples were stable, and the national inventory decreased. The basis of different contracts changed [8][9]. - **Market Analysis**: Production in different regions has different situations, and consumption is in the off - season [9]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From September 5 - 11, pig prices in some production areas decreased, and the basis decreased [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Policy expectations and seasonal factors co - exist with mid - term supply pressure [9].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural products morning report released by the research center's agricultural products team on September 5, 2025, covering corn/starch, sugar, cotton/cotton yarn, eggs, apples, and pigs [1] Group 2: Corn/Starch Price Data - From August 29 to September 4, 2025, the price in Changchun remained at 2230, the price in Jinzhou increased by 0, the price in Weifang decreased by 18, and the price in Shekou remained unchanged. The basis decreased by 17, the trade profit remained unchanged, and the import profit and loss increased by 17. For starch, the price in Heilongjiang remained at 2850, the price in Weifang remained at 2900, the basis decreased by 11, and the processing profit remained unchanged [2] Market Analysis - Corn: In the short - term, the market is expected to remain weak and volatile. The reserve's corn auction has a light trading volume. With limited supply increase, there is no expectation of a sharp decline. In the long - term, focus on the enthusiasm of selling grain in the producing areas after the new - season corn is on the market [3] - Starch: In the short - term, the price is affected by raw material price fluctuations, with high inventory and low downstream enthusiasm. In the long - term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs keep the outlook bearish [3] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From August 29 to September 4, 2025, the spot price in Liuzhou decreased by 10, in Nanning decreased by 20, and in Kunming decreased by 5. The basis increased by 19, the import profit from Thailand increased by 89, from Brazil increased by 89, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 30 [4] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, pressuring the price. In China, the price is under pressure due to imported sugar arrivals and lower processed sugar quotes [4] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From August 29 to September 4, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton remained unchanged, the import profit and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 167, the price of Vietnamese yarn remained at 2.51, the spot price remained at 20890, the import profit of Vietnamese yarn increased by 3, and the 32S spinning profit remained unchanged [7] Market Analysis - Cotton has entered a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. Without major macro - risks, the April low may be the long - term bottom, and the downside is limited. Pay attention to demand changes [7] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From August 29 to September 4, 2025, the price in Hebei and Liaoning remained unchanged, in Shandong increased by 0.15, in Henan increased by 0.10, and in Hubei increased by 0.11. The basis increased by 112, the price of white - feather broilers remained unchanged, yellow - feather broilers remained unchanged, and the price of pigs decreased by 0.19 [14] Market Analysis - High temperatures in mid - July reduced egg production, and post - plum - rain replenishment drove up prices. However, weakening and delayed Mid - Autumn Festival stocking demand led to a price decline in early August. Pay attention to the chicken culling rhythm and cold - storage egg release [14] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From August 29 to September 4, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7300.00. The 1 - month basis decreased by 5.00, the 5 - month basis decreased by 4.00, and the 10 - month basis decreased by 47.00 [15][16] Market Analysis - New - season apples are in the growth stage. The yield in the west may increase, but there is a 20% expected reduction in Shandong. Consumption is in the off - season, with low inventory and slow de - stocking. Pay attention to the final production [16] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From August 29 to September 4, 2025, the price in Henan Kaifeng remained unchanged, in Hubei Xiangyang decreased by 0.15, in Shandong Linyi decreased by 0.05, in Anhui Hefei decreased by 0.10, in Jiangsu Nantong decreased by 0.05, and the basis increased by 185.00 [16] Market Analysis - The market is range - bound. There are policy expectations for a production inflection point next year and seasonal support this year, but mid - term supply pressure remains. Pay attention to the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View - Corn: Short - term, the price is expected to be under pressure and continue the weak and volatile pattern; long - term, focus on the selling enthusiasm in the producing areas after the new season corn is launched [3]. - Starch: Short - term, the price fluctuates with the raw material price and is under pressure due to high inventory; long - term, maintain a bearish view [3]. - Sugar: The international sugar price is under pressure. The domestic sugar price is also under pressure with the arrival of imported sugar [4]. - Cotton: The price is in a shock state, and the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the change in demand [6]. - Eggs: The price rebounded from the low level before, then declined due to supply and demand issues. Attention should be paid to the culling rhythm and cold - storage egg出库 [12]. - Apples: The new - season output may not differ much from last year. The consumption is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the final production [14]. - Pigs: The price is in a range - bound shock. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From August 27 to September 2, the price in some regions changed slightly. For example, the price in Shekou increased by 10, and the starch basis decreased by 5 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Corn supply increment is limited, and the price is expected to decline under pressure in the short - term and maintain a weak pattern; starch inventory is high, and the price is bearish in the long - term [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From August 27 to September 2, the spot price in some regions decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 233 [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The international sugar price is under pressure due to supply, and the domestic sugar price is also under pressure with the arrival of imported sugar [4]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From August 27 to September 2, the 3128 cotton price increased by 25, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 37 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The cotton price is in a shock state, and the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the demand change [6]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From August 27 to September 2, the price in some regions remained stable, and the basis increased by 11 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The egg price rebounded from the low level before, then declined due to supply and demand issues. Attention should be paid to the culling rhythm and cold - storage egg出库 [12]. Apples - **Price Data**: From August 27 to September 2, the spot price remained stable, and the national inventory decreased by 16 [13][14]. - **Market Analysis**: The new - season output may not differ much from last year. The consumption is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the final production [14]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From August 27 to September 2, the price in some regions changed slightly, and the basis decreased by 20 [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The pig price is in a range - bound shock. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [14].