Group 1: Report General Information - Report Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Report Name: Agricultural Products Morning Report [18] Group 2: Corn/Starch Market Price Data | Date | Changchun | Jinzhou | Weifang | Shekou | Basis | Trade Profit | Import Profit/Loss | Heilongjiang | Weifang | Basis | Processing Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/13 | 2070 | 2150 | 2150 | 2320 | -36 | 20 | 145 | 2700 | 2800 | 148 | -12 | | 2025/11/14 | 2070 | 2160 | 2150 | 2330 | -25 | 20 | 156 | 2700 | 2800 | 150 | 9 | | 2025/11/17 | 2070 | 2180 | 2130 | 2340 | -2 | 10 | - | 2700 | 2800 | 166 | -10 | | 2025/11/18 | 2070 | 2180 | 2130 | 2360 | 12 | 30 | - | 2700 | 2800 | 188 | -10 | | 2025/11/19 | 2070 | 2170 | 2130 | 2360 | -5 | 40 | - | 2700 | 2800 | 225 | -1 | | Change | 0 | -10 | 0 | 0 | -17 | 10 | - | 0 | 0 | 37 | 9 | [3] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn spot prices have started an upward trend driven by tightened supply in production areas and downstream enterprises' restocking demand. Farmers' reluctance to sell has delayed the concentrated release of selling pressure. - Medium - long term: The supply - demand pattern of the corn market remains tight this year, and planting costs will strongly support prices. After the selling pressure eases, prices may start a new upward cycle [3] - Short - term: Starch prices fluctuate with raw material prices. After the new - season corn is on the market, deep - processing procurement and开机率 increase, but slow downstream replenishment and high inventory suppress starch prices. - Medium - long term: The key factor for starch price trends is downstream consumption rhythm. A significant price drop may stimulate downstream replenishment and drive prices up [4] Group 3: Sugar Market Price Data | Date | Liuzhou | Nanning | Kunming | Liuzhou Basis | Thailand | Brazil | Zhengzhou Futures | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/13 | - | 5760 | 5630 | - | - | - | 8904 | | 2025/11/14 | - | 5760 | 5635 | - | - | - | 8805 | | 2025/11/17 | - | 5760 | 5630 | - | - | - | 8805 | | 2025/11/18 | - | 5760 | 5600 | - | - | - | 8794 | | 2025/11/19 | - | - | 5600 | - | - | - | 8611 | | Change | - | - | 0 | - | - | - | -183 | [5] Market Analysis - Short - term: Zhengzhou sugar is more affected by import quota management and syrup premix import control than the overseas market. Before new quota licenses are issued, domestic sugar production costs are a key support. - Medium - long term: If the global sugar market surplus intensifies, imported sugar may impact domestic sugar costs. Overall, the global and domestic sugar supply is loose, maintaining a short - selling strategy, but short - term low valuation limits the downward space [5] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Market Price Data | Date | 3128 | Imported M - grade US Cotton | CotlookA(F E) | Import Profit | Warehouse Receipts + Forecast | Vietnamese Yarn | Spot | Vietnamese Yarn Import Profit | 32S Spinning Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/13 | 14380 | 73.8 | 75.0 | 1272 | 5058 | 2.52 | 20970 | 438 | -129 | | 2025/11/14 | 14355 | - | 74.7 | 1281 | 5044 | 2.52 | 20970 | 493 | -102 | | 2025/11/17 | 14315 | - | 74.4 | 1286 | 5218 | 2.52 | 20960 | 451 | -70 | | 2025/11/18 | 14280 | - | - | - | 5314 | 2.52 | 20955 | 429 | -39 | | 2025/11/19 | 14320 | - | - | - | 4636 | 2.52 | 20950 | - | -86 | | Change | 40 | - | - | - | -678 | 0 | -5 | - | -47 | [7] Market Analysis - New cotton procurement is basically completed, with the total output estimate revised down. The positive outcome of the China - US meeting in Busan and tariff cuts are beneficial to China's textile and clothing exports. The external environment has improved compared to April, so the valuation is unlikely to return to the April low, making long - term long positions suitable [7] Group 5: Egg Market Price Data | Date | Hebei | Liaoning | Shandong | Henan | Hubei | Basis | White - feather Broiler | Yellow - feather Broiler | Pig | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/13 | 2.84 | 2.78 | 2.85 | 2.90 | 3.18 | 420 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 18.12 | | 2025/11/14 | 2.84 | 2.78 | 2.85 | 2.90 | 3.18 | 503 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 18.06 | | 2025/11/17 | 2.84 | 2.78 | 2.85 | 2.90 | 3.11 | 380 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 17.98 | | 2025/11/18 | 2.78 | 2.71 | 2.75 | 2.80 | 3.02 | 301 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 17.89 | | 2025/11/19 | 2.71 | 2.64 | 2.75 | 2.80 | 2.96 | 281 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 17.92 | | Change | -0.07 | -0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.06 | -20.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | [13] Market Analysis - Supply side: Ordered chicken culling and a decrease in new - layer chickens have alleviated some supply pressure. - Demand side: Cooler weather allows for longer egg storage, and some traders are building rolling inventories. The interaction of supply and demand has slightly pushed up the price center in production areas. Currently, the culling process has not accelerated significantly, and there are no signs of over - culling in the short term. Future price trends depend on the culling rhythm, and faster culling may drive prices up [13] Group 6: Apple Market Price and Inventory Data | Date | Shandong 80 First - and Second - grade | Shaanxi 70 Common | National Inventory | Shandong Inventory | Shaanxi Inventory | January Basis | May Basis | October Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/13 | 8000.00 | 4.00 | 735.77 | 270.88 | 207.60 | -1504.00 | -1442.00 | -408.00 | | 2025/11/14 | 8000.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -1570.00 | -1495.00 | -450.00 | | 2025/11/17 | 8000.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -1438.00 | -1318.00 | -355.00 | | 2025/11/18 | 8000.00 | - | - | - | - | -1433.00 | -1356.00 | -382.00 | | 2025/11/19 | 8000.00 | - | - | - | - | -1375.00 | -1296.00 | -347.00 | | Change | 0.00 | - | 58.00 | 60.00 | 35.00 | | | | [16][17] Market Analysis - National apple storage is basically completed. This year's national cold - storage estimated storage volume is about 5.5%, 10% less than last year, with an estimated volume of 700 - 780 million tons. Shaanxi's storage is 5 - 5.5%, 10 - 15% less than last year; Gansu's is 70%, 20 - 30% less; Shandong's is 50%, 10% less. The average opening price is above 3.5 yuan/jin, good - quality apples are scarce, and the price difference between good and bad apples is widening. The futures price has risen significantly recently and is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term [17] Group 7: Pig Market Price Data | Date | Henan Kaifeng | Hubei Xiangyang | Shandong Linyi | Anhui Hefei | Jiangsu Nantong | Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/13 | 11.88 | 11.50 | 12.02 | 12.10 | 12.15 | 20 | | 2025/11/14 | 11.93 | 11.55 | 11.97 | 12.10 | 12.15 | 155 | | 2025/11/17 | 11.63 | 11.35 | 11.77 | 11.85 | 11.85 | -65 | | 2025/11/18 | 11.68 | 11.45 | 11.72 | 11.90 | 11.85 | 145 | | 2025/11/19 | 11.78 | 11.50 | 11.77 | 11.95 | 12.05 | 220 | | Change | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.20 | 75.00 | [17] Market Analysis - Over the weekend, the northern pig spot market was weak while the southern market was stable. Northern farmers were more willing to sell, and there was limited second - fattening support and downstream follow - up. Some southern farmers were holding out for higher prices, but price increases faced limited demand. The market is in a weak, volatile game in the short term. Mid - term supply pressure remains due to unchanged production capacity, and there is still pressure from fourth - quarter base supply and weight reduction. Near - term inventory accumulation shifts pressure to later periods. Attention should be paid to selling rhythm, diseases, policies, and capital sentiment in the high - position futures market [17]

| 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/11/10 | 2050 | 2120 | 2140 | 2270 | -44 | 0 | 142 2700 | 2800 | 176 | 8 | | 2025/11/11 | 2070 | 2130 | 2150 | 2300 | -47 | 20 | 164 2700 | 2800 | 165 | 8 | | 2025/11/12 | 2070 | 2140 | 2150 | 2310 | -37 | 20 | 151 2700 | 2800 | 165 | -12 | | 2025/11/13 | 2070 | 2150 | 2150 | 2320 | -36 | 20 | 145 2700 | 2800 | 148 | -12 | | 2025/11/ ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: November 12, 2025 [1] - Report team: Agricultural Products Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: Corn and Starch Price Data - Corn prices in different regions (Changchun, Jinzhou, Weifang, Shekou) increased by 20, 10, 10, and 30 respectively from November 5 - 11, 2025; the base difference decreased by 3, and trade profit and import profit increased by 20 and 22 respectively [2] - Starch prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained unchanged, the base difference decreased by 11, and processing profit remained stable [2] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn prices are pushed up slightly by unstable grain supply but limited by weak downstream consumption; starch prices follow raw material prices, and high inventory suppresses prices [3] - Medium - to - long - term: Corn prices may rebound after the first selling peak; starch price trends depend on downstream consumption rhythm [3] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - Sugar spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming had a change of 30; the base difference increased by 25, import profit decreased by 17, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 64 from November 5 - 6, 2025 [4][5] Market Analysis - Short - term: Zhengzhou sugar is more affected by import quota management and syrup pre - mixed powder import control than the external market; domestic sugar cost is the key support [5] - Medium - to - long - term: If the global sugar market surplus intensifies, domestic sugar cost may be broken through; maintain a short - selling strategy, but the downward space is limited [5] Group 4: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Data - Cotton prices (3128 and imported M - grade US cotton) and related data had certain changes from November 5 - 11, 2025; the import profit of imported M - grade US cotton increased by 88 [6][17] Market Analysis - Short - to - medium - term: New cotton production is estimated to be lower; the good result of the Sino - US meeting in Busan is beneficial to textile exports, and it is suitable for long - term long positions [8] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - Egg prices in different production areas (Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, Hubei) had small changes from November 5 - 11, 2025; the base difference increased by 82 [14] Market Analysis - Short - term: Supply pressure is relieved, and demand increases, pushing up the price center; there is no obvious over - elimination signal [14] - Medium - to - long - term: Focus on the change of elimination rhythm, which may drive prices up [14] Group 6: Apples Price Data - Apple spot prices in Shandong remained at 8000; the national inventory decreased by 70, Shandong and Shaanxi inventories decreased by 29; the base difference in different months changed [15][16] Market Analysis - Short - term: The price of new - season apples is affected by weather, and the market is volatile [16] - Medium - to - long - term: The national production may decrease, and the quality in some areas is affected by rain [16] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - Pig prices in different production areas (Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Shandong Linyi, Anhui Hefei, Jiangsu Nantong) decreased slightly from November 5 - 11, 2025; the base difference increased by 100 [16] Market Analysis - Short - term: The market is in a volatile game, with farmers' price - holding mentality and insufficient demand [16] - Medium - to - long - term: The supply pressure remains, and the key is the path of capacity and inventory reduction; pay attention to various influencing factors [16]

【行情分析】： | 农产品早报 | | --- | | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/11/10 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/11/03 | 2010 | 2100 | 2180 | 2240 | -41 | -10 | 88 | 2700 | 2800 | 202 | 32 | | 2025/11/04 | 2030 | 2100 | 2140 | 2240 | -35 | -10 | 88 | 2700 | 2800 | 211 | 32 | | 2025/11/05 | 2030 | 2100 | 2140 | 2240 | -34 | -10 | 103 | 2700 | 2800 | 204 | 28 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Corn prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term due to the concentrated listing of new - season corn. In the long - term, the game between farmers and traders will be crucial. A significant price drop may trigger farmers' resistance and lead to a price rebound [3]. - Starch prices are likely to decline in the short - term as raw material prices fall. In the long - term, if prices drop significantly, downstream consumption may increase and support prices [4]. - International sugar prices are under pressure due to Brazil's high - pressure supply during the peak crushing season. In China, the arrival of imported sugar and lower processing sugar quotes put pressure on the market [5]. - Cotton prices are in a range - bound state. If there are no major macro - risks, the April low can be seen as a long - term bottom, and the downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [7]. - Egg prices have rebounded slightly due to the easing of supply pressure and the increase in storage by traders. Future price trends depend on the chicken culling rhythm [11]. - Apple prices are expected to oscillate upward in the short - term as the new - season late - maturing Fuji apples are listed. The overall production has decreased, and some areas have quality issues [15]. - Pig prices have rebounded slightly recently. However, mid - term supply pressure remains due to insufficient capacity reduction. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm and capital trends in the futures market [15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From October 24 to October 30, the price in Changchun decreased by 20 yuan, and the price in Shekou decreased by 20 yuan. The basis increased by 5, the trade profit decreased by 20, and the import profit decreased by 29 [3]. - **Analysis**: Short - term weakness due to new - season corn listing; long - term price depends on the game between farmers and traders [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From October 24 to October 30, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming remained unchanged, the basis increased by 22, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 84 [5]. - **Analysis**: International supply pressure from Brazil affects prices, and in China, imported sugar and processing sugar quotes impact the market [5]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From October 24 to October 30, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 10, the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 126, the price of spot cotton yarn increased by 70, the import profit of Vietnamese yarn increased by 78, and the spinning profit increased by 59 [7]. - **Analysis**: Cotton prices are in a range - bound state, and the downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [7]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From October 24 to October 30, the prices in major production areas remained stable, the basis increased by 16, and the price of live pigs decreased by 0.07 [11]. - **Analysis**: Supply pressure has eased, and demand has increased slightly. Future price trends depend on the chicken culling rhythm [11]. Apples - **Price Data**: From October 24 to October 30, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7500 yuan, the 1 - month basis decreased by 70, the 5 - month basis increased by 20, and the 10 - month basis increased by 57 [14][15]. - **Analysis**: The new - season apples are listed, with a decrease in overall production and quality issues in some areas. Prices are expected to oscillate upward in the short - term [15]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From October 24 to October 30, the prices in some production areas changed slightly, and the basis increased by 205 [15]. - **Analysis**: Short - term price rebound, but mid - term supply pressure remains due to insufficient capacity reduction. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm and capital trends [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Corn prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term due to the concentrated listing of new - season corn, but may rebound in the long - term if farmers resist selling at low prices. Starch prices are likely to decline in the short - term with raw material price drops and inventory accumulation, but may be supported by increased downstream consumption in the long - term. Sugar prices face pressure both internationally and domestically. Cotton prices are in a consolidation phase, with limited downside if no major macro - risks occur. Egg prices are expected to be weak in the short - term but may be supported by accelerated chicken culling. Apple production in the new season is expected to be similar to last year, with some quality issues. Pig prices may have short - term rebounds but face medium - term supply pressure [1][2][3][4][8][11]. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From October 13 - 17, corn prices in different regions remained stable, with the basis dropping by 6 and import profit increasing by 1. Starch basis increased by 2 [1]. - **Analysis**: New - season corn is on the market, and short - term prices are weak due to supply. Long - term prices depend on the game between farmers and traders. Starch price adjustment is limited by high production costs, and short - term prices are expected to decline with inventory accumulation, while long - term prices depend on downstream consumption [1][2]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From October 13 - 17, sugar spot prices in some regions remained unchanged, the basis dropped by 4, and the number of warrants decreased by 20 [3]. - **Analysis**: International sugar prices are under pressure due to Brazil's peak crushing season. Brazilian production has uncertainties. Domestic sugar prices follow the international market, with import sugar arrivals and lower processing sugar quotes putting pressure on the market [3]. Cotton - **Price Data**: From October 13 - 17, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 15, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 15 [14]. - **Analysis**: Cotton prices are in a consolidation phase. If there are no major macro - risks, the April low can be seen as the long - term bottom, and the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [4]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From October 13 - 17, egg prices in major production areas increased, with the largest increase of 0.11 in some regions, and the basis increased by 61 [8]. - **Analysis**: Egg prices dropped during the holiday, and are expected to be weak in the short - term due to high supply and seasonal demand decline. Accelerated chicken culling may support prices [8]. Apples - **Price Data**: From October 13 - 17, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7500, and the 1 - month basis decreased by 115 [10][11]. - **Analysis**: New - season apples in the western region are about to be harvested, and those in Shandong are delayed due to rain. The national production is expected to be similar to last year, with some quality issues, and the average opening price is above 3.5 yuan per catty [11]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From October 13 - 17, pig prices in major production areas increased slightly, with the largest increase of 0.10 in some regions, and the basis increased by 335 [11]. - **Analysis**: Pig prices may have short - term rebounds due to low prices, but face medium - term supply pressure. Attention should be paid to factors such as slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given reports. 2. Report Core Views - **Corn**: Short - term prices are weak due to reduced terminal demand, but the decline is limited by low inventory. In the long - term, prices are expected to decline under the pressure of increased production and lower costs until consumption improves or farmers show reluctance to sell [2]. - **Starch**: In the short - term, prices are likely to be lowered to reduce inventory. In the long - term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs keep the outlook bearish [2]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are under pressure from Brazil's high - supply period. In China, imported sugar arrival and lower processing sugar prices add pressure to the market [3]. - **Cotton**: The market is in a range - bound state. Without major macro - risks, the April low could be the long - term bottom, and the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [4]. - **Eggs**: In September, prices rebounded due to increased demand, but high inventory restricts the increase. The probability of prices falling below feed costs is low. Post - holiday chicken culling should be monitored [9]. - **Apples**: New - season production is expected to be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and prices are stable. Attention should be paid to the final production after bag - removal [11]. - **Pigs**: There are policy expectations for a production inflection point next year. In the short - term, supply pressure persists, and prices are at a low level. Attention should be paid to factors such as slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From 2025/09/23 - 2025/09/29, prices in some regions changed, e.g., the price in Jinzhou for corn decreased by 30, and the corn basis decreased by 11. Starch processing profit remained at - 31 [1]. - **Analysis**: Short - term price is weak due to reduced demand; long - term price is pressured by production and cost factors. Starch prices are expected to be adjusted downwards to reduce inventory [2]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From 2025/09/23 - 2025/09/29, the Thai import profit decreased by 34, the Brazilian import profit decreased by 35, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 483 [3]. - **Analysis**: International supply pressure affects prices, and in China, imported sugar and processing sugar prices impact the market [3]. Cotton - **Price Data**: From 2025/09/23 - 2025/09/29, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 70, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 74 [4]. - **Analysis**: The market is in a range - bound state, and the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [4]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From 2025/09/23 - 2025/09/29, the price in Hubei decreased by 0.18, the basis decreased by 58, the price of yellow - feather broilers decreased by 0.20, and the price of pigs decreased by 0.10 [9]. - **Analysis**: Prices rebounded in September, but high inventory restricts the increase. Post - holiday chicken culling should be monitored [9]. Apples - **Price Data**: From 2025/09/23 - 2025/09/29, the national inventory decreased by 85, Shandong inventory decreased by 102, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 51. The 1 - month basis decreased by 198, the 5 - month basis decreased by 179, and the 10 - month basis decreased by 184 [10][11]. - **Analysis**: New - season production is expected to be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and prices are stable. Attention should be paid to the final production after bag - removal [11]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From 2025/09/23 - 2025/09/29, the price in Henan Kaifeng decreased by 0.15, and the basis increased by 130 [15]. - **Analysis**: There are policy expectations for a production inflection point next year. In the short - term, supply pressure persists, and prices are at a low level. Attention should be paid to factors such as slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15].

Report Information - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report [21] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Corn is expected to maintain a weak oscillation pattern in the short - term due to reduced terminal demand and low inventory, and face downward pressure in the long - term due to increased production and lower costs [3] - Starch prices are expected to be lowered in the short - term to reduce inventory, and remain bearish in the long - term due to high inventory and lower expected raw material costs [3] - Sugar prices are under pressure due to high supply from Brazil in the international market, and the domestic market is also facing pressure with the arrival of imported sugar [4] - Cotton is in a consolidation phase, with limited downside if no major macro - risks occur, and attention should be paid to demand changes [5] - Egg prices have rebounded but are restricted by high inventory and cold - storage eggs, and the possibility of falling below feed costs is low. Post - festival chicken culling should be monitored [10] - Apple production in the new season is expected to be similar to last year, and consumption is in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the final production [11] - Pig prices are supported by policy expectations for the long - term next year, but face medium - term supply pressure. Near - term, attention should be paid to factors such as slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15] Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price and Index Changes**: From September 22 - 26, the price in Shekou increased by 20, the basis decreased by 13, the trade profit increased by 20, and the import profit increased by 19 for corn. For starch, the basis decreased by 6, and the processing profit remained unchanged [2] - **Market Analysis**: Short - term, corn prices are weak due to reduced demand, and starch prices are expected to be lowered. Long - term, both are under downward pressure [3] Sugar - **Price and Index Changes**: From September 22 - 26, the basis increased by 7, the import profit from Thailand and Brazil decreased by 32 each, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 329 [4] - **Market Analysis**: International sugar prices are under pressure due to Brazil's high supply, and the domestic market is also affected by imported sugar [4] Cotton - **Price and Index Changes**: From September 22 - 26, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 70, the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 186, the import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 21, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 73 [5] - **Market Analysis**: Cotton is in a consolidation phase, with limited downside and attention on demand [5] Eggs - **Price and Index Changes**: From September 22 - 26, the prices in Hebei, Liaoning, and Hubei decreased by 0.09, and the basis increased by 230 [10] - **Market Analysis**: Egg prices have rebounded but are restricted by high inventory, and the possibility of falling below feed costs is low. Monitor post - festival chicken culling [10] Apples - **Price and Index Changes**: From September 22 - 26, the national inventory increased by 45, Shandong inventory increased by 32, and Shaanxi inventory increased by 28 [11] - **Market Analysis**: New - season apple production is expected to be similar to last year, and consumption is in the off - season. Monitor final production [11] Pigs - **Price and Index Changes**: From September 22 - 26, the prices in Hubei and Anhui decreased by 0.05, and the price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.10, while the basis increased by 110 [15] - **Market Analysis**: Pig prices are supported by long - term policy expectations but face medium - term supply pressure. Monitor factors such as slaughter rhythm [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: In the short - term, with new - season corn about to hit the market, terminal demand weakens and prices are likely to decline slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to face downward pressure due to increased production and lower costs [3]. - Starch: In the short - term, as the cost of raw corn drops, the price of starch is likely to be adjusted downward to reduce inventory. In the medium - to - long - term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs keep the outlook for starch prices bearish [3]. - Sugar: Internationally, Brazil's high - pressure sugar supply weighs on prices. In China, with imported sugar arriving and processing sugar prices falling, the futures market faces pressure [4]. - Cotton: The market has entered a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. If there are no major macro - risks, the April low could be the long - term bottom, and the downside for cotton prices is limited [5]. - Eggs: In September, demand increased due to school openings and holiday stocking, causing a nearly 40% price rebound. High inventory and cold - storage eggs limit price increases, but the likelihood of prices falling below feed costs is low [8]. - Apples: New - season apple production is expected to be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and seasonal fruits are squeezing the market share of apples. Attention should be paid to the final production [10]. - Pigs: There are policy - related expectations for a production inflection point next year, but in the short - term, supply pressure persists, and the market focuses on factors like slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn/Starch - Price and Indicator Changes: From September 18 to 24, the price in蛇口 decreased by 20, the基差 decreased by 6, the贸易利润 decreased by 20, and the加工利润 of starch increased by 20 [2]. Sugar - Price and Indicator Changes: From September 18 to 24, the柳州基差 decreased by 53, the进口利润 from Thailand decreased by 8, the进口利润 from Brazil decreased by 8, and the仓单 decreased by 168 [4]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price and Indicator Changes: From September 18 to 24, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 20, the仓单 + 预报 decreased by 199, the越南纱进口利润 decreased by 6, and the 32S纺纱利润 decreased by 21 [5]. Eggs - Price and Indicator Changes: From September 18 to 24, the基差 decreased by 130, and the price of生猪 increased by 0.03 [8]. Apples - Price and Indicator Changes: From September 18 to 24, the全国库存 decreased by 48, the山东库存 decreased by 46, and the陕西库存 decreased by 62 [9][10]. Pigs - Price and Indicator Changes: From September 18 to 24, the基差 decreased by 65, and the price in江苏南通 decreased by 0.05 [14].

Report Information - Report Date: September 22, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report [18] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - **Corn**: In the short - term, new - season corn is about to be listed, and terminal demand is weakening, so the price is weak, but the decline is limited due to low inventory. In the long - term, with increased production and lower costs, the price is expected to decline until consumption improves or there is reluctance to sell in production areas [3] - **Starch**: In September, companies start to destock for the new season, pressuring corn prices. In the short - term, as the cost of purchasing corn decreases, the price of starch is expected to be lowered to reduce inventory. In the long - term, high inventory and lower expected raw material costs keep the outlook for starch prices bearish [3] - **Sugar**: Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, pressuring international sugar prices. The uncertainty of future production increases. Domestically, the market follows the trend of raw sugar, with downward pressure on the price due to the arrival of imported sugar [4] - **Cotton**: The market is in a shock state, waiting for demand verification. Without major macro - risk events, the April low may be the long - term bottom, and the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [6] - **Eggs**: Since September, due to increased demand for school opening and festival stocking, the spot price has rebounded. High inventory and cold - storage eggs limit the price increase, but the price is unlikely to fall below the feed cost. Attention should be paid to the situation of chicken culling and cold - storage egg release [9] - **Apples**: The new - season apple harvest is approaching. The national production is expected to be similar to last year. The current consumption is in the off - season, and the price is temporarily stable. Attention should be paid to the final production [11] - **Pigs**: There are policy - related expectations for a production capacity inflection point next year, but in the medium - term, supply pressure still exists due to insufficient production capacity reduction. The spot price is hitting new lows, and the futures market is trading on weak reality. Attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15] Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the prices in Changchun, Jinzhou, and other places remained mostly unchanged, with the base difference of corn changing by 9, and the base difference of starch changing by 8 [2] - **Analysis**: Short - term price of corn is weak, and long - term it is under pressure. For starch, short - term price reduction to reduce inventory, long - term bearish outlook [3] Sugar - **Price Data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and other places decreased, with the base difference changing by - 7, and the import profit changing by - 47 [4] - **Analysis**: International supply pressure affects prices, and domestic prices are under pressure due to imported sugar [4] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 20, and the inventory (warehouse receipts + forecasts) decreased by 206 [6] - **Analysis**: The market is in shock, waiting for demand verification, and the downward space is limited [6] Eggs - **Price Data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the prices in Hebei, Liaoning, and other places decreased, with the base difference changing by - 237 [9] - **Analysis**: Spot price rebounded in September, but high inventory limits the increase, and the price is unlikely to fall below the feed cost [9] Apples - **Price Data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged, and the base differences in different months changed slightly [10][11] - **Analysis**: The new - season production is expected to be similar to last year, the current consumption is in the off - season, and the price is stable [11] Pigs - **Price Data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, and other places changed slightly, and the base difference changed by 5 [15] - **Analysis**: There are policy expectations for the future, but medium - term supply pressure exists, and the spot price is hitting new lows [15]