2025年09月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期反弹高度有限，轻仓过节 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆偏弱震荡，豆油上方空间难以打开 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆微涨，连粕或略有反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注新粮上市 | 6 | | 白糖：区间震荡 | 8 | | 棉花：市场继续聚焦新棉上市 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：旺季将过，轻仓过节 | 11 | | 生猪：现货底部未现，空单持有 | 12 | | 花生：震荡偏弱 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 29 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：短期反弹高度有限，轻仓过节 豆油：美豆偏弱震荡，豆油上方空间难以打开 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,23 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Protein Meal**: In the short - term, the domestic supply of soybeans has great pressure, and the temporary cancellation of export tax in Argentina drives the downward movement of soybean meal. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is loose, suggesting a strategy of short - selling on rebounds. However, due to the low valuation of US soybeans and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the soybean meal market will fluctuate within a range [3][5]. - **Oils**: The center of the oil market is supported by factors such as low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, increased demand for soybean oil from the US biodiesel policy draft, limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and expected decline in export volume due to growing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia. In the medium - term, it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. Currently, with high valuation, the strategy is to buy on dips after stabilization [9]. - **Sugar**: Affected by factors such as the record - high domestic sugar imports in August and a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in August, the overall trend of sugar prices is bearish. However, from a technical perspective, there may be a short - term rebound [12]. - **Cotton**: Although it is the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, the growth of the downstream industrial chain's operating rate is weak, and there is an expectation of increased domestic production in the far - month. So, the short - term price of Zhengzhou cotton is bearish. But due to the low domestic cotton inventory and relatively low prices, there may be support below, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [15]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is expected to decline. The near - month futures contract is weak, while the far - month contract is relatively strong due to the expected marginal improvement in supply - demand and capital game. It is recommended to wait and watch in the short - term and focus on buying the far - month contract after a decline [18]. - **Pigs**: The current spot price of pigs is showing a slight accelerating downward trend. The futures market is expected to be weak in the short - term. The strategy is to short the near - month contract and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, US soybeans rebounded weakly. Argentina's temporary cancellation of export tax is bearish for the international soybean system. The domestic soybean meal spot price fell by about 60 yuan/ton, and the transaction was good with high pick - up volume. Last week, the domestic port soybean inventory decreased by 700,000 tons, and the soybean meal inventory increased by 90,000 tons [3]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The total scale of about $7 billion for soybeans, corn, and wheat in Argentina corresponds to approximately 7 - 8 million tons of soybean products (converted to soybeans). The supply of global protein raw materials is in surplus, and Brazil may continue to expand its planting area [3]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, there may be a downward trend. In the medium - term, the strategy is to short - sell on rebounds, but the market will fluctuate within a range [5]. Oils - **Market Situation**: From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports and production showed different trends. On September 23, the Malaysian palm oil's offshore price, import arrival price, and import cost price all declined. On Tuesday, the prices of the three major domestic oils dropped significantly [7]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The export of Malaysian palm oil is still weak year - on - year, indicating low import willingness of demand countries or high production in Indonesia. Argentina's temporary cancellation of export tax on soybean oil is also bearish for international oils in the short - term [7]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. Currently, the strategy is to buy on dips after stabilization [9]. Sugar - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly. The spot prices of sugar in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing plants also declined. Brazil's sugar exports in the first three weeks of September decreased by 11.12% year - on - year [11]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The high domestic sugar imports in August and the significant increase in Brazil's sugar production are bearish factors for sugar prices [12]. - **Strategy**: The overall trend is bearish, but there may be a short - term rebound [12]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fall. The spot price of cotton also declined. As of September 19, the operating rates of spinning and weaving factories showed different trends, and the cotton commercial inventory decreased year - on - year. As of September 21, the US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased but was still higher than last year [14]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: It is the consumption season, but the downstream operating rate growth is weak, and there is an expectation of increased domestic production in the far - month [15]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is bearish, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [15]. Eggs - **Market Situation**: Yesterday, the national egg price was mainly stable, with a few areas seeing price adjustments. The supply was stable, and the overall sales were average [17]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The basic production capacity is still large, but there is room for marginal improvement. The demand has many uncertainties [18]. - **Strategy**: Wait and watch in the short - term and focus on buying the far - month contract after a decline [18]. Pigs - **Market Situation**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price was mainly stable with some areas showing weakness. The supply of pigs was abundant, and the increase in downstream procurement demand was limited [19]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The supply from large - scale farms has recovered more than expected, and the low demand has led to slow sales. There is also panic selling from small farmers [20]. - **Strategy**: Short the near - month contract and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks [20].

淀粉：进入九月后，企业开始降低库存备战新作季，因此开始对原料玉米采取压价操作。短期看，随着收粮成本下探，产业预计顺势调低成品 淀粉报价，以降价换销路的操作降低库存压力。中长期看，成品淀粉库存高企限制企业调价空间，叠加新季原料成本预期下移，因此对淀粉价 格仍维持偏空思路。 白糖 现货价格 基差 进口利润 仓单 日期 柳州 南宁 昆明 柳州基差 泰国 巴西 郑盘 2025/09/16 5970 5890 5865 423 376 557 11268 2025/09/17 5970 5870 5860 441 487 668 10988 2025/09/18 5960 5840 5850 486 517 698 10629 2025/09/19 5940 5830 5845 479 470 651 10364 2025/09/22 5900 5800 5820 448 493 674 10315 变化 -40 -30 -25 -31 23 23 -49 【行情分析】： 白糖：国际市场方面，现阶段巴西正处于压榨高峰期，供应压力使得国际糖价承压。截至目前，巴西单产和出糖率同比持续偏低，但制糖比屡 创新高，后期产量不确定 ...

Rice - Domestic market shows sufficient supply of early indica rice and regrowth rice, with prices expected to trend weakly due to seasonal consumption decline [2] - Internationally, the rice market is characterized by ample supply, with prices anticipated to remain low [2] Wheat - Domestic wheat market has sufficient supply, with demand from flour and feed industries slowing down, leading to stable prices supported by policy purchases [3] - Globally, wheat supply is abundant as the Northern Hemisphere harvest nears completion, with international prices expected to fluctuate at low levels [3] Corn - Domestic corn market is in a tight balance, with prices expected to remain stable to slightly strong, despite reduced impact from reserve corn auctions [4] - Internationally, corn supply is ample with strong production expectations, leading to a forecast of weak price performance [4] Soybeans - Domestic soybean supply is primarily from state reserves and older beans, with prices expected to remain stable due to seasonal consumption decline [5] - Internationally, U.S. soybeans are in a critical growth stage, with prices likely to fluctuate due to weather speculation [5] Cotton - Domestic cotton commercial inventory continues to decline, with reduced consumption in textiles and apparel, leading to expected price fluctuations [6] - Internationally, the cotton supply remains ample, with demand affected by U.S. tariff policies, resulting in anticipated price volatility [6] Oilseeds - Domestic market sees reduced supply of rapeseed and peanut stocks, with prices expected to remain stable [7] - Internationally, strong production expectations for Canadian canola are noted, with prices expected to trend weakly [7] Sugar - Domestic sugar imports are increasing rapidly, but strong consumption and reduced industrial stocks are expected to keep prices stable [8] - Internationally, Brazil is entering peak sugar production season, while Thailand and India benefit from favorable weather, leading to a forecast of weak price fluctuations [8] Pork - Short-term pork market shows ample supply, but high temperatures and rainfall negatively impact transportation and consumption, leading to expected weak prices [9] - Future expectations indicate stabilization of pork prices as production capacity gradually reduces and the number of large pigs decreases [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short - term and face downward pressure in the long - term due to new - season supply and cost changes [4]. - Starch is likely to remain bearish in both the short and long term because of high inventory and expected lower raw material costs [4]. - The price of sugar is under pressure in the international market, and the domestic market follows the trend with limited upward movement [7][20]. - Cotton is in a range - bound state, and its downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [10]. - Egg prices may trigger more old - hen culling if the rebound in late August fails to meet expectations [14]. - Apple production in the new season may not differ much from last year, and attention should be paid to the final production determination [18]. - The pig market has short - term positive factors, but medium - term supply pressure still exists, and attention should be paid to various influencing factors [18]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From August 18 - 22, 2025, the port spot price of corn weakened, with a maximum decline of 20 yuan/ton in some regions. The processing profit of starch increased by 20 yuan/ton [3]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, new - season corn is about to be listed, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. The supply increase is limited, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. In the long term, the price is likely to decline under the influence of increased production and lower costs. Starch prices are affected by raw materials, with high inventory and low downstream demand, remaining bearish [4]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From August 18 - 22, 2025, the spot prices in some regions remained stable, the basis changed, and the import profit decreased. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 196 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Brazil is in the peak crushing season, putting pressure on international sugar prices. The domestic market follows the trend, with imported sugar arriving and processing sugar prices dropping, limiting the upward movement of the futures price [7][20]. Cotton - **Price Data**: From August 18 - 22, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 155 yuan/ton, the import profit changed, and the number of warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 262 [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Cotton is in a range - bound state. If there are no major macro - risks, the price is expected to have limited downward space, and attention should be paid to demand changes [10]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From August 18 - 22, 2025, egg prices in major producing areas decreased, and the basis decreased by 70 [14]. - **Market Analysis**: High temperatures in mid - July and post - plum - rain replenishment drove up egg prices, but weakening and delayed Mid - Autumn Festival stocking demand led to a decline in prices in early August. If the price rebound in late August fails to meet expectations, more old - hen culling may be triggered [14]. Apples - **Price Data**: From August 18 - 22, 2025, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained stable, the national inventory decreased by 14, and the basis changed [17][18]. - **Market Analysis**: Apple production in the new season may not differ much from last year. The current consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a five - year low. Attention should be paid to the final production determination [18]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From August 18 - 22, 2025, pig prices in some regions changed slightly, and the basis decreased by 75 [18]. - **Market Analysis**: There are long - term policy expectations, but medium - term supply pressure remains. There are short - term positive factors such as supply reduction and consumption improvement, and attention should be paid to various influencing factors [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of various futures markets, including soybean, palm oil, live pigs, eggs, and corn, driven by factors such as export demand, weather conditions, and supply dynamics [1] Group 2 - CBOT soybeans rose due to improved export demand expectations and hot weather in production areas, with the good rate remaining stable and no surprises in export inspection data [1] - Domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices fell, with rapeseed meal declining more than soybean meal, leading to an expanded price difference [1] - The oil factory's crushing volume decreased to 2.18 million tons last week but is expected to recover to 2.3 million tons this week, indicating sufficient domestic supply and rising inventory [1] Group 3 - BMD palm oil prices increased due to improved export expectations and positive MPOB reports, with Malaysia's July palm oil production rising by 7.09% month-on-month [1] - The report indicated that Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 4.02% month-on-month, but was lower than expected, while exports rose by 3.82% [1] Group 4 - Live pig futures saw a slight decline of 0.28%, with the average daily price in China at 13.78 yuan/kg, reflecting mixed price movements across regions [1] - The supply side is under pressure, but policy support is present, leading to a view of price fluctuations [1] Group 5 - The main contract for eggs continued to decline, with a daily drop of 2.71%, while the national egg price rose slightly to 3.02 yuan/jin [1] - The short-term fundamentals appear weak, with high levels of egg-laying hens and weak terminal demand, although a rebound in demand is expected in the future [1] Group 6 - Corn futures experienced adjustments with a lack of speculative activity, and the cash market saw weaker transactions due to price declines [1] - The northeastern corn market is weak, with traders selling based on market conditions, while prices in North China remain stable with minor adjustments [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract fell 1.5 to close at 986.5 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.15%; the September soybean meal contract rose 35 to close at 3,045 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.16%; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 50 to 2,920 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.74%; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 98 to close at 2,773 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.66%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 90 to 2,620 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.56% [4]. - U.S. soybeans are in a weak and volatile state. The overall weather in the production areas is good, with a crop good - to - excellent rate of 69%, which is at a relatively high level in the same period. The new - crop export sales of U.S. soybeans slightly exceeded expectations. The cost - effectiveness advantage attracted more purchases from other countries, but the absence of China, the largest buyer, led to a still slow overall sales progress. In China, there is still a supply of near - term soybeans and soybean meal. As time passes, the expectation of tight supply in the distant future is strengthening, and the Dalian soybean meal futures are oscillating and slightly rising. Due to factors such as the peak season for aquaculture and the expected decrease in future arrivals, rapeseed meal has a greater upward elasticity [4][7]. - The precipitation in the U.S. soybean production areas is generally at the average level, but the western production areas will be dry in the next two weeks. The crop conditions are good. Attention should be paid to the upcoming USDA report. Under the current import tax rate of U.S. soybeans, it is difficult for them to enter the Chinese market. However, the procurement of old - crop Brazilian soybeans is becoming more difficult, and the premium is running strongly. As time passes, the expectation of tight supply is strengthening, and the domestic futures market may continue to strengthen. For other countries, the cost - effectiveness of U.S. soybeans is prominent, and the purchase volume will also increase. The overseas market may oscillate at a low level. Overall, in the short term, the Dalian soybean meal futures may oscillate and strengthen [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Contract | 8/8 | 8/1 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 986.50 | 988.00 | - 1.50 | - 0.15% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 485.00 | 468.00 | 17.00 | 3.63% | Dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: U.S. Gulf | 443.00 | 450.00 | - 7.00 | - 1.56% | Dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | - 42.65 | - 20.24 | - 22.41 | - | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3045.00 | 3010.00 | 35.00 | 1.16% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2773.00 | 2675.00 | 98.00 | 3.66% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 272.00 | 335.00 | - 63.00 | - | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2940.00 | 2900.00 | 40.00 | 1.38% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2920.00 | 2870.00 | 50.00 | 1.74% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | - 125.00 | - 140.00 | 15.00 | - | Yuan per ton | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - U.S. soybean production area weather: The overall weather in the U.S. soybean production areas is good, with a crop good - to - excellent rate of 69%. The precipitation is generally at the average level, but the western production areas will be dry in the next two weeks. The USDA report is about to be released [4][7][9]. - U.S. soybean export situation: The new - crop export sales of U.S. soybeans slightly exceeded expectations. The cost - effectiveness advantage attracted more purchases from other countries, but China, the largest buyer, was absent, and the overall sales progress was still slow. As of the week ending July 31, 2025, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the current market year were 468,000 tons, and the cumulative export sales of 2024/2025 U.S. soybeans had completed the USDA's expected target. The net export sales of 2025/2026 U.S. soybeans in the current week were 545,000 tons, and the cumulative sales in this year were 3.58 million tons, while China had not purchased new - crop U.S. soybeans [4][7][9]. - Domestic supply situation: There is still a supply of near - term soybeans and soybean meal in China. As time passes, the expectation of tight supply in the distant future is strengthening. As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.5559 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous week; the soybean meal inventory was 1.0416 million tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous week; the outstanding contracts were 6.7687 million tons, an increase of 2.5386 million tons from the previous week. The soybean inventory at national ports was 8.237 million tons, an increase of 152,000 tons from the previous week [7][9][10]. - Market performance: The Dalian soybean meal futures are oscillating and slightly rising. Due to factors such as the peak season for aquaculture and the expected decrease in future arrivals, rapeseed meal has a greater upward elasticity [4][7]. 3.3 Industry News - StoneX predicts that the U.S. soybean production in 2025 will reach 4.425 billion bushels, with an average yield of 53.6 bushels per acre. The predicted soybean production in Brazil in 2025/26 will be 177.2 million tons, an increase of 5.6% from the previous year due to an increase in planting area and crop yield [12]. - Celeres estimates that the soybean planting area in Brazil in 2025/26 will increase by 962,000 hectares or 2% to 48.6 million hectares. If this increase is realized and the yield slightly increases, Brazil is expected to achieve a record production of 177.2 million tons [12]. - As of the week ending July 30, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed crops in Saskatchewan, Canada was 67.84%. Due to recent wet weather, the rapeseed harvest in the EU 27 and the UK has been delayed, and the predicted rapeseed production in 2025/26 is 20.3 million tons, the same as the previous forecast [13][14]. - Safras & Mercado reports that the sales volume of Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26 has reached 16.8% of the expected production, and the sales volume in 2024/25 has reached 78.4% of the expected production [13]. - The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso, Brazil from July 28 to August 1 was 390 reais per ton, down from 435.55 reais per ton in the previous week [13]. - As of the week ending July 30, the cumulative sales of 2024/25 soybeans by Argentine farmers were 27.9605 million tons, and the cumulative export sales registration volume was 8.04 million tons [14]. - The predicted soybean planting area in Brazil in 2025/26 will increase at the slowest rate in nearly 20 years, with an estimated planting area of 48.13 million hectares, an increase of 1.43% from the previous year. The predicted soybean production is 166.56 million tons, lower than the previous year's 168.74 million tons [15]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of U.S. soybean continuous contracts, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the crushing profit by region, the trend of soybean meal main contracts, the spot price of soybean meal in each region, the CBOT net position of managed funds, the spot - futures spread of soybean meal, the precipitation and temperature in U.S. soybean production areas, the flowering rate and good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans, the cumulative export sales volume of U.S. soybeans to the world, the weekly net sales volume of U.S. soybeans, the cumulative sales volume of new - crop U.S. soybeans, the weekly net sales volume of U.S. soybeans to China, the weekly export volume of U.S. soybeans, the U.S. oil mill crushing profit, the weekly average daily trading volume and pick - up volume of soybean meal, the soybean inventory at ports and oil mills, the weekly crushing volume and crushing start - up rate of oil mills, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills, and the soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises [16][21][24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: In the short - term, the supply - demand gap persists before the new crop is on the market, providing strong support for spot and near - month contract prices. In the long - term, potential increases in forward import orders and new - season supply may put downward pressure on prices [3]. - **Starch**: In the short - term, it is expected to have a weak rebound. In the long - term, high inventory and lower expected raw material costs lead to a bearish outlook [3]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, there is potential for a corrective rebound in raw sugar. Domestically, the arrival of imported sugar creates significant upward pressure on the futures market [6]. - **Cotton**: The upward trend needs verification during the September peak season. Consider 9 - 11 or 9 - 1 reverse spreads for month - spreads [8]. - **Eggs**: Spot prices are in a seasonal upward channel, but high cold - storage egg inventory and high laying - hen存栏 may limit the rebound height [13]. - **Apples**: New - season production may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the market share is squeezed by seasonal fruits [16]. - **Pigs**: Long - term supply pressure remains. Futures prices need further verification from spot prices, and short - term supply is sufficient with seasonal support [16]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From July 25 to July 31, corn prices in some regions changed, with a maximum decline of 20 yuan/ton in蛇口. Starch prices were stable, and the processing profit increased by 2 yuan [2]. - **Analysis**: Corn supply tension is slightly relieved by auctions. Starch is in a loss situation with high inventory [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From July 25 to July 31, sugar prices in some regions decreased, with a maximum decline of 20 yuan/ton in柳州. The import profit increased by 7 yuan/ton for Thailand sugar [6]. - **Analysis**: International supply pressure affects prices. Domestic import arrivals create upward pressure on the futures market [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From July 25 to July 31, the price of 3128 imported M - grade US cotton decreased by 150 yuan/ton. The 32S spinning profit increased by 77 yuan/ton [8]. - **Analysis**: Inventory reduction drives price increases, but downstream demand is weak [8]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From July 25 to July 31, egg prices in some regions decreased, with a maximum decline of 0.10 yuan in山东 and河南. The base difference decreased by 38 [13]. - **Analysis**: Seasonal factors drive price increases, but high inventory and存栏 may limit the increase [13]. Apples - **Price Data**: From July 25 to July 31, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7800 yuan/ton. The national inventory increased by 68 (unit not specified) [16]. - **Analysis**: New - season production may be similar to last year, and consumption is in the off - season [16]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From July 25 to July 31, pig prices in some regions increased, with a maximum increase of 0.40 yuan in河南开封. The base difference increased by 400 [16]. - **Analysis**: Long - term supply pressure exists, and futures prices need spot verification [16].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For corn, short - term support for spot and near - month contract prices is strong due to expected supply gap before new crop listing, but long - term supply increase may pressure prices [4]. - For starch, short - term weak rebound is expected, while long - term outlook is bearish due to high inventory and expected lower raw material cost [4]. - For sugar, international sugar price may have a corrective rebound, and the domestic market faces upward pressure as imported sugar is about to arrive in large quantities [7]. - For cotton, the price increase is driven by inventory reduction, but the upward trend needs verification in September; consider 9 - 11 or 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage for month - spreads [9]. - For eggs, the spot price is in a seasonal upward channel, but high cold - storage egg inventory and high laying - hen存栏 may limit the rebound height [14]. - For apples, the new - season output may not differ much from last year, and consumption is in the off - season with slow de - stocking [17]. - For pigs, long - term supply pressure remains, and the futures price needs further verification from the spot market [17]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From July 24 - 30, corn prices in some regions changed slightly, with a 16 - yuan increase in潍坊 and no change in蛇口. Starch prices in some regions also had minor changes, with a 50 - yuan increase in Heilongjiang and a 30 - yuan increase in潍坊 [3]. - **Analysis**: Short - term supply tension is alleviated by reserve auctions, and the price has support before new crop listing. Starch has a weak short - term rebound and a bearish long - term outlook [4]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From July 24 - 30, the spot prices in柳州, Nanning, and Kunming remained stable, the base difference increased by 63, and the import profit and warehouse receipts changed [7]. - **Analysis**: International sugar price may rebound due to uncertain Brazilian production, and the domestic market has upward pressure from imported sugar [7]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From July 24 - 30, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 215 yuan, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 196 yuan [9]. - **Analysis**: Cotton price increase is driven by inventory reduction, but the upward trend needs verification, and consider month - spread arbitrage [9]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From July 24 - 30, egg prices in some regions were stable, and the base difference increased by 68 [14]. - **Analysis**: Spot price is in a seasonal upward channel, but high inventory and high存栏 may limit the rebound [14]. Apples - **Price Data**: From July 24 - 30, the spot price in Shandong remained 7800 yuan, and the national inventory decreased by 23 [16][17]. - **Analysis**: New - season output may be similar to last year, and consumption is in the off - season with slow de - stocking [17]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From July 24 - 30, pig prices in some regions changed slightly, and the base difference increased by 125 [17]. - **Analysis**: Long - term supply pressure remains, and the futures price needs spot verification [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Corn**: In the short - term, the price of spot and near - month contracts has strong support due to the supply - demand gap before the new crop is launched. In the long - term, potential increases in imports and lower new - season planting costs may put downward pressure on prices [1]. - **Starch**: Short - term prices are expected to have a weak rebound, while long - term prices are expected to be bearish due to high inventory and lower expected raw material costs [2]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are under pressure from Brazilian supply, but may rebound. Domestic sugar prices have upward pressure due to upcoming large imports [5]. - **Cotton**: After a rapid price increase, prices may decline due to low downstream profits and expected new - crop production increases [6]. - **Eggs**: Spot prices are in a seasonal upward trend, but high cold - storage egg inventory and high laying - hen存栏 may limit the increase [8]. - **Apples**: New - season production may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and spot prices are affected by seasonal fruits [11]. - **Pigs**: Spot prices are in a weak and volatile state. Long - term supply pressure remains, and futures need further spot verification [11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: Corn prices in different regions remained relatively stable from July 18 - 24, with some minor changes. Starch prices were also stable, and the processing profit was in a loss state [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Corn supply tension has been alleviated by auctions, but the supply - demand gap persists in the short - term. Starch prices follow raw material prices and are expected to be bearish in the long - term [1][2]. Sugar - **Price Data**: Sugar spot prices in different regions were mostly stable from July 18 - 24, with a 10 - yuan decrease in the Kunming price. The import profit and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [5]. - **Market Analysis**: International sugar prices are affected by Brazilian supply, and domestic prices are affected by imports [5]. Cotton - **Price Data**: The price of 3128 cotton decreased by 20 yuan from July 18 - 24, and the import profit and other data changed slightly [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Cotton prices may decline due to low downstream profits and expected new - crop production increases [6]. Eggs - **Price Data**: Egg spot prices in different regions increased from July 18 - 24, and the basis also increased [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Egg prices are in a seasonal upward trend, but high cold - storage inventory and high laying - hen存栏 may limit the increase [8]. Apples - **Price Data**: Apple spot prices in Shandong remained stable from July 18 - 24, and the basis decreased [10][11]. - **Market Analysis**: New - season production may not differ much from last year, and consumption is in the off - season [11]. Pigs - **Price Data**: Pig prices in different regions decreased from July 18 - 24, and the basis changed significantly [11]. - **Market Analysis**: Pig spot prices are in a weak and volatile state, and long - term supply pressure remains [11].