农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/11/24 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/11/17 2070 | 2180 | 2130 | 2340 | -2 | 10 - | 2700 | 2800 | 166 | -10 | | 2025/11/18 2070 | 2180 | 2130 | 2360 | 12 | 30 - | 2700 | 2800 | 188 | -10 | | 2025/11/19 2070 | 2170 | 2130 | 2360 | -5 | 40 185 | 2700 | 2800 | 225 | -1 | | 2025/11/20 2070 | 2170 | 2150 | 2350 | 2 | 30 197 | 2700 | 2800 | 232 | -1 | | 2025/ ...

农产品早报 2025-11-24 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 【行情资讯】 上周五 CBOT 大豆先跌后涨，受到中国买船支撑，上周巴西升贴水小幅下跌，大豆到港成本回落。周末 国内豆粕现货稳定，华东报 2990 元/吨，上周豆粕成交、提货均较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨 量为 231.73 万吨，上周压榨大豆 233.44 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 7.98 天环比下降 0.25 天。 杨泽元 巴西大豆产区 11 月降雨水平同比往年略低，12 月预报雨量较多，预计播种较为顺利。11 月 USDA 月报 预估 25/26 年度全球大豆产量与消费量已几乎持平，同时，全球大豆供需格局由供需双增转换成供减需 增。 ...

研究中心农产品团队 2025/11/21 | 玉米/淀粉 | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 锦州 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/11/14 2070 | 2160 2150 | 2330 | -25 | 20 156 | 2700 | 2800 | 150 | 9 | | 2025/11/17 2070 | 2180 2130 | 2340 | -2 | 10 - | 2700 | 2800 | 166 | -10 | | 2025/11/18 2070 | 2180 2130 | 2360 | 12 | 30 - | 2700 | 2800 | 188 | -10 | | 2025/11/19 2070 | 2170 2130 | 2360 | -5 | 40 185 | 2700 | 2800 | 225 | -1 | | 2025/11/20 2070 | 2170 2150 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, and the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but the de - stocking season provides some support, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [2][4]. - Palm oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the near term due to factors such as weak exports and high inventory. However, if Indonesian production decreases, the situation may reverse, and the strategy is to view it as volatile and turn bullish if production decline signals appear [6][9]. - Zhengzhou sugar prices have rebounded due to strengthened import controls on syrup and premixed powder, but the external market is weak. With expected increases in production in the 2025/26 season, it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies [12][13]. - Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Although there are negative factors such as weak downstream demand and high domestic production, some negative news has been digested [16][17]. - Egg prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, with near - term contracts focusing on premium/discount and far - term contracts reflecting de - capacity expectations. In the medium term, as demand weakens, it is advisable to wait for price rallies to short [18][19]. - Hog prices are expected to be bearish before the Spring Festival due to oversupply. The current strategy is to first use reverse spreads and then wait for price rallies to short [21][22]. 3. Summary by Directory Protein Meal - **Market Information**: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans declined due to concerns about US soybean demand. Brazilian soybean premiums were stable, and the cost of imported soybeans decreased. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable, with good trading and pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.3492 million tons, up from 2.0776 million tons last week. Last week, soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month but remained high year - on - year. The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans has reached 71%. The USDA monthly report lowered the global new - crop soybean production by about 4.1 million tons and the ending inventory by 2 million tons, while the US soybean production was lowered by about 1.3 million tons, but exports were also lowered by 1.36 million tons, resulting in only a 280,000 - ton reduction in US soybean inventory [2]. - **Strategy View**: The bottom of soybean import costs may have appeared, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and crushing margins are under pressure. As the de - stocking season begins, there is some support, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [4]. Oils - **Market Information**: From November 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased compared to the same period last month, and the production situation was mixed. The National Grain and Oil Information Center expects palm oil prices to be volatile and weak in the near term. On Thursday, domestic oil prices declined. Domestic spot basis prices were stable [6]. - **Strategy View**: The high production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed prices, but the recent improvement in Malaysian palm oil exports provides some support. Palm oil may reverse the current situation of high inventory in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to view it as volatile and turn bullish if production decline signals appear [9]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weakly volatile. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends. The International Sugar Organization predicts a 1.63 - million - ton surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season. In October 2025, China's sugar imports increased year - on - year. The production of Indian sugar mills has increased significantly compared to the same period last year [11][12]. - **Strategy View**: The strengthening of import controls on syrup and premixed powder has driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the external market is weak. With expected increases in production in the new season, it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies [13]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were narrowly volatile. In October 2025, China's cotton imports decreased year - on - year. The USDA monthly report showed an increase in global cotton production in the 2025/26 season. As of November 14, the spinning mill operating rate was low, and the national commercial cotton inventory increased year - on - year [15][16]. - **Strategy View**: Due to weak downstream demand and high domestic production, there is selling - hedging pressure. However, some negative news has been digested, and cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [17]. Eggs - **Market Information**: On the previous day, national egg prices were stable or declined. The market supply was generally sufficient, and the terminal market digestion speed was partly stable and partly slowed down. It is expected that today's egg prices will be weakly stable with a few declines [18]. - **Strategy View**: The egg futures market has rebounded in advance, but the spot price increase has not met expectations, resulting in an enlarged premium. In the short term, it is expected to be volatile, and in the medium term, it is advisable to wait for price rallies to short [19]. Hogs - **Market Information**: On the previous day, domestic hog prices mainly increased, with some areas stable or slightly decreased. The market supply was normal, but demand was limited, and slaughter enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm was not high. It is expected that today's hog prices may be stable or decreased [21]. - **Strategy View**: The current hog price rebound is driven by frozen product storage and second - fattening. The subsequent supply will lead to a bearish pattern before the Spring Festival. The current strategy is to first use reverse spreads and then wait for price rallies to short [22].

消息面 监测数据显示，截止到2025年第46周末，国内豆粕库存量为99.9万吨，较上周的96.9万吨增加3.0万吨， 环比增加3.05%。 据欧盟委员会，截至11月16日，欧盟2025/26年度豆粕进口量为674万吨，上年同期为737万吨。 机构观点 正信期货： 美豆冲高回落。国内端近月大豆采购基本完成，远月大豆采购逐步推进；短期进口大豆到港充足，国内 大豆及豆粕库存充足；国内增加美豆采购使远月缺口将不复存在，短期连粕弱于美豆，中长期仍将延续 筑底。操作上，暂时观望。 国都期货： USDA11月份供需报告发布，本次报告下调美豆单产预测至53蒲/英亩，低于9月份预测的53.5蒲/英亩， 报告基本符合预期。。国内方面，今年5月份起大豆进口月到港量均超历史同期，目前供应宽松，国内 进口大豆库存处于偏高水平。新季南美大豆产区天气暂无升水，内外盘上行空间均承压，但下方成本支 撑仍在，预计继续维持区间宽幅震荡。 巴西大豆行业协会（Abiove）预计2026年大豆产量达1.777亿吨，虽较10月预测下调80万吨，但仍创历 史纪录。出口、豆粕和豆油加工量同步上升，出口收入预计达602.5亿美元。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global soybean supply in the 24/25 season has decreased, and the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward movement requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to trade sideways [3][5]. - Malaysian palm oil exports decreased in November, and production showed a mixed trend. Palm oil is expected to trade sideways, and a shift to a bullish strategy can be considered if there are signs of production decline [7][9]. - Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell. With increasing sugar production in Brazil and expected production increases in the Northern Hemisphere in the 2025/26 season, it is advisable to look for opportunities to short at high prices [11][12]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures prices continued to trade sideways. Weak downstream demand and high domestic production this year may lead to short - term sideways movement in cotton prices [14][15]. - Egg prices were mostly stable with minor fluctuations. The egg futures market is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and a short - selling strategy can be considered on rebounds in the medium term [17][18]. - Pig prices were half stable and half falling. The overall trend of the pig futures market is bearish, but there may be short - term rebounds. It is recommended to use a reverse spread strategy first and then short on rebounds [20][21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, CBOT soybeans rose sharply, and Brazilian soybean premiums increased by 4 - 5 cents per bushel. Domestic soybean meal spot prices decreased slightly by 20 yuan/ton, and trading and pick - up were good. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 234.92 tons, up from 207.76 tons last week. Last week, soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month but remained high year - on - year [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the next two weeks, rainfall is expected to resume in the under - rained areas of the Brazilian soybean - growing region, and the planting progress has reached 71% as of last Thursday. The USDA monthly report lowered the global new - crop soybean production by about 4.1 million tons and the ending inventory by 2 million tons. US soybean production was lowered by about 1.3 million tons, but exports were lowered by 1.36 million tons, resulting in only a 280,000 - ton reduction in US soybean inventory [3]. - **Strategy**: The bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but upward movement requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to trade sideways [5]. Palm Oil - **Market Conditions**: From November 1 - 10, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared to the previous month, and the first 15 days saw a 10% decrease. Production showed a mixed trend. On Monday, domestic palm oil prices traded sideways, with stable spot basis [7]. - **Strategy**: Palm oil is expected to trade sideways. A shift to a bullish strategy can be considered if there are signs of production decline [9]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell. Spot sugar prices also decreased. In October, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 16.4% year - on - year, and the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased [11]. - **Strategy**: With increasing sugar production in Brazil and expected production increases in the Northern Hemisphere in the 2025/26 season, it is advisable to look for opportunities to short at high prices [12]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices continued to trade sideways. The global cotton production in the 2025/26 season increased compared to the September forecast. As of November 13, the cumulative cotton inspection in China increased year - on - year. The spinning mill operating rate increased slightly week - on - week but was lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. The national commercial cotton inventory increased year - on - year [14]. - **Strategy**: Weak downstream demand and high domestic production this year may lead to short - term sideways movement in cotton prices [15]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, national egg prices were mostly stable with minor fluctuations. Supply was sufficient, and market trading was inactive [17]. - **Strategy**: The egg futures market is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and a short - selling strategy can be considered on rebounds in the medium term [18]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices were half stable and half falling. After continuous price drops, farmers were reluctant to sell, and downstream procurement enthusiasm increased [20]. - **Strategy**: The overall trend of the pig futures market is bearish, but there may be short - term rebounds. It is recommended to use a reverse spread strategy first and then short on rebounds [21].

研究中心农产品团队 2025/11/18 | 玉米/淀粉 | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 锦州 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/11/11 2070 | 2130 2150 | 2300 | -47 | 20 164 | 2700 | 2800 | 165 | 8 | | 2025/11/12 2070 | 2140 2150 | 2310 | -37 | 20 151 | 2700 | 2800 | 165 | -12 | | 2025/11/13 2070 | 2150 2150 | 2320 | -36 | 20 145 | 2700 | 2800 | 148 | -12 | | 2025/11/14 2070 | 2160 2150 | 2330 | -25 | 20 156 | 2700 | 2800 | 150 | 9 | | 2025/11/17 2070 | 2180 ...

玉米：短期看，粮源供应不稳定推动产地现货价格小幅上行，但下游消费端依旧疲软，对涨价幅度形成明显抑制。未来一段时间，供需双方博 弈仍将持续，价格大概率维持震荡运行格局。中长期观察，等待第一轮售粮高峰结束，观察产区农户与贸易商间的博弈。由于新季玉米产量增 加、种植成本下滑等原因，玉米价格已逐步向种植成本靠拢；但鉴于当前估值较低且今年粮质较好，预计现货价格回调后，会触发农户惜售抗 价的情绪，届时供应收缩将带动玉米价格走出反弹行情。 淀粉：短期看，淀粉报价跟随原料价格波动。新季玉米上市后，深加工采购积极性增加，开机率也逐步上调，不过由于下游补货依旧平缓，造 成产业去库缓慢，在高库存的压制下，淀粉价格依旧承压。中长期需重点关注下游消费节奏变化，这将成为价格走势的关键支撑因素，若淀粉 报价出现大幅回落，预计将刺激下游补货积极性。 白糖 现货价格 基差 进口利润 仓单 日期 柳州 南宁 昆明 柳州基差 泰国 巴西 郑盘 2025/11/07 5760 5750 5650 303 680 861 8968 2025/11/10 5730 5760 5650 255 623 804 8968 2025/11/11 5760 - ...

研究中心农产品团队 2025/11/11 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/11/04 | 2030 | 2100 | 2140 | 2240 | -35 | -10 88 | 2700 | 2800 | 211 | 32 | | 2025/11/05 | 2030 | 2100 | 2140 | 2240 | -34 | -10 103 | 2700 | 2800 | 204 | 28 | | 2025/11/06 | 2050 | 2100 | 2140 | 2250 | -54 | 0 98 | 2700 | 2800 | 186 | 28 | | 2025/11/07 | 2050 | 2110 | 2120 | 2250 | -39 | -10 115 | 2700 | 2800 | ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are expected to weaken in the short - term due to concentrated grain listings but may rebound in the medium - to long - term as farmers may resist selling at low prices [2] - Starch prices are currently under pressure due to high inventory, and downstream consumption rhythm will be the key factor for future price trends [2] - Sugar prices are affected by international supply pressure and domestic cost support, and may face challenges if global surplus intensifies [5] - Cotton prices are in a consolidation phase, and the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand - side changes [7] - Egg prices have rebounded slightly due to supply and demand factors, and the future price trend depends on the speed of chicken culling [13] - Apple prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short - term as the new - season output decreases and the opening price is higher than last year [15] - Pig prices are currently weak, and the key drivers of the market are the paths of production and inventory reduction, with attention to factors such as slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, corn prices in different regions showed various changes, with a maximum decrease of 40 in some areas, and starch processing profit remained at 32 in the end [1] - **Analysis**: Short - term pressure on corn prices due to concentrated listings; mid - to long - term depends on the game between farmers and traders. Starch prices follow raw material prices, and high inventory suppresses prices [2] Sugar - **Price Data**: The provided table shows sugar spot prices in different regions, as well as data on basis, import profit, and warehouse receipts from October 29 to November 4, 2025, with some price changes [4] - **Analysis**: International supply pressure affects sugar prices, and domestic prices are supported by production costs but may face challenges from imports [5] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, cotton prices showed a downward trend, and cotton yarn profit improved gradually [6] - **Analysis**: Cotton prices are in a consolidation phase, and the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand - side changes [7] Eggs - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, egg prices in different regions remained relatively stable, with a 33 decrease in basis [13] - **Analysis**: Supply pressure is relieved, and demand has increased slightly, leading to a slight price rebound. Future prices depend on the speed of chicken culling [13] Apples - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8000, and the basis showed a decreasing trend [14][15] - **Analysis**: New - season output has decreased, and affected by rainfall, the quality in some areas is poor. The opening price is higher than last year, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate upward [15] Pigs - **Price Data**: From October 29 to November 4, 2025, pig prices in different regions decreased, with a maximum decrease of 0.35, and the basis decreased by 200 [15] - **Analysis**: Spot prices are weak, and the key to the market is the paths of production and inventory reduction, with attention to slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15]