农产品日报 | 2026-03-05 低价情绪好转，底部区域确认 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2605合约11130元/吨，较前交易日变动-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.18%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格10.73元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.03元/公斤，现货基差 LH05-400，较前交易日变动+50；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 10.82元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.08元/公斤，现货基差LH05-310，较前交易日变动+100；四川 地区外三元生猪价格10.26元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH05-870，较前交易日变动+20。 据农业农村部监测，3月4日"农产品批发价格200指数"为124.67，比昨天下降0.98个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为126.74，比昨天下降1.15个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.20元/公斤，比昨天下降0.1%；牛肉66.28 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.3%；羊肉65.03元/公斤，比昨天下降0.6%；鸡蛋7.54元/公斤，比昨天下降0.5%；白条鸡17.29 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.1%。 市场分析 ...

淀粉：临近春节，部分企业陆续停机检修，行业整体开机率小幅下滑。短期看，在下游节日备货预期和库存去化的背景下，支撑企业报价维持 偏强的态势。中长期需重点关注下游消费节奏变化，这将成为价格走势的关键支撑因素，季节性旺季过后，企业库存是否会持续去化将成为未 来淀粉定价的关键因素。 农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/02/27 玉米/淀粉 玉米 淀粉 日期 长春 锦州 潍坊 蛇口 基差 贸易利润 进口盈亏 黑龙江 潍坊 基差 加工利润 2026/02/12 2180 2290 2292 2450 -30 40 262 2750 2820 123 -83 2026/02/13 2180 2290 2292 2450 -30 40 264 2750 2820 57 -83 2026/02/24 2180 2310 2310 2460 -22 30 312 2750 2860 62 -83 2026/02/25 2180 2320 2310 2460 -22 20 322 2750 2860 52 -69 2026/02/26 2180 2320 2310 2460 -22 20 310 2750 2860 67 ...

淀粉：临近春节，部分企业陆续停机检修，行业整体开机率小幅下滑。短期看，在下游节日备货预期和库存去化的背景下，支撑企业报价维持 偏强的态势。中长期需重点关注下游消费节奏变化，这将成为价格走势的关键支撑因素，季节性旺季过后，企业库存是否会持续去化将成为未 来淀粉定价的关键因素。 研究中心农产品团队 2026/02/26 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2026/02/11 | 2180 | 2280 | 2292 | 2430 | -36 | 30 235 | 2750 | 2820 | 124 | -83 | | 2026/02/12 | 2180 | 2290 | 2292 | 2450 | -30 | 40 262 | 2750 | 2820 | 123 | -83 | | 2026/02/13 | ...

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/02/24 玉米/淀粉 玉米 淀粉 日期 长春 锦州 潍坊 蛇口 基差 贸易利润 进口盈亏 黑龙江 潍坊 基差 加工利润 2026/02/09 2180 2280 2282 2420 15 20 208 2750 2820 157 -83 2026/02/10 2180 2280 2282 2430 -6 30 235 2750 2820 148 -83 2026/02/11 2180 2280 2292 2430 -36 30 235 2750 2820 124 -83 2026/02/12 2180 2290 2292 2450 -30 40 262 2750 2820 123 -83 2026/02/13 2180 2290 2292 2450 -30 40 264 2750 2820 57 -83 变化 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 -66 0 【行情分析】： 玉米：临近春节假期，市场成交逐步转淡，贸易行为预计在下周逐步结束。短期看，市场流通粮源逐步减少的情况下，下游节前补库将继续对 玉米价格形成支撑，预计节前现货难有大涨大跌行情出现，价格震荡运行。中长 ...

玉米：临近春节假期，市场成交逐步转淡，贸易行为预计在下周逐步结束。短期看，市场流通粮源逐步减少的情况下，下游节前补库将继续对 玉米价格形成支撑，预计节前现货难有大涨大跌行情出现，价格震荡运行。中长期来看，需重点关注结构变化，今年粮源依旧存在供应缺口的 情况下，重点关注未来进口政策和国内拍储政策变化。 淀粉：临近春节，部分企业陆续停机检修，行业整体开机率小幅下滑。短期看，在下游节日备货预期和库存去化的背景下，支撑企业报价维持 偏强的态势。中长期需重点关注下游消费节奏变化，这将成为价格走势的关键支撑因素，季节性旺季过后，企业库存是否会持续去化将成为未 来淀粉定价的关键因素。 白糖 现货价格 基差 进口利润 仓单 日期 柳州 南宁 昆明 柳州基差 泰国 巴西 郑盘 2026/02/05 5360 5300 5150 136 356 532 14719 2026/02/06 - 5300 5150 - - - 14719 2026/02/09 5360 5310 5155 99 345 521 14719 2026/02/10 5370 5330 5175 92 425 601 14719 2026/02/11 53 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Corn**: The price of corn futures stopped falling and rose on Tuesday due to the increase in soybean prices. Before the Spring Festival, the trading activity in the corn market was low, with prices remaining stable in the Northeast. The price of corn in the selling area adjusted slightly. Before the Spring Festival, the corn price will maintain a narrow - range shock pattern, with a low possibility of significant fluctuations. The view is "oscillating weakly" [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans closed higher, and soybean oil futures reached a new high. The February supply - demand report was bearish, but the market was optimistic about the demand for US soybean oil after the US - India agreement. In the domestic market, soybean meal was mainly oscillating, with light trading. The view is "oscillating" [1]. - **Oils and Fats**: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil fell, following the decline in the surrounding market. The MPOB report was bullish, but the high - frequency data showed a decline in palm oil exports in February. In the domestic market, the oils and fats market was divided, with palm oil being weak. The view is "oscillating" [1]. - **Eggs**: On Tuesday, egg futures oscillated. The spot price of eggs continued to decline, and the futures price stabilized after falling to a low level. The view is "oscillating" [1]. - **Pigs**: On Tuesday, hog futures continued to be weak. Before the Spring Festival, the supply of hogs was sufficient, and the spot price continued to decline. In the long - term, the trend of hog production capacity reduction remained unchanged. The view is "oscillating" [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - **Corn**: Affected by the rise in soybean prices, the corn futures price stopped falling and rose on Tuesday. Before the Spring Festival, the 3 - month contract positions were transferred to the 5 - month contract. The spot market was waiting for the guidance of the futures market. The trading in the Northeast corn market was basically over, and the price was stable. The deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast stopped purchasing during the Spring Festival. The price in the selling area adjusted slightly, and downstream feed enterprises were cautious. The price will maintain a narrow - range shock before the Spring Festival [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans closed higher on Tuesday, and soybean oil futures reached a new high. The February supply - demand report was bearish, but the market was optimistic about the demand for US soybean oil. In the domestic market, the import cost increased, but the supply was sufficient, and the inventory pressure increased. The strategy is to participate in the short - term and exit the 5 - 9 reverse spread [1]. - **Oils and Fats**: BMD palm oil fell on Tuesday, following the decline in the surrounding market. The MPOB report was bullish, but the high - frequency data showed a decline in palm oil exports in February. In the domestic market, the oils and fats market was divided, with palm oil being weak. The strong rise of precious metals and the improvement of the commodity atmosphere drove up the price of oils and fats, but the loose supply and weak demand limited the increase. The operation should be short - term [1]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures oscillated on Tuesday. The spot price of eggs continued to decline, and the futures price stabilized after falling to a low level. As the spot price declined, if the breeding profit continued to decline, it would be beneficial to the reduction of production capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the changes in the willingness of the breeding end to eliminate and replenish [1]. - **Pigs**: Hog futures continued to be weak on Tuesday. Before the Spring Festival, the supply of hogs was sufficient, and the spot price continued to decline. In the long - term, the trend of hog production capacity reduction remained unchanged. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the production capacity reduction progress on the forward contracts [1][2] Market Information - On February 9, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 129.51, down 0.25 points from last Friday. The "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 132.33, down 0.29 points from last Friday. As of 14:00 on the day, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.34 yuan/kg, unchanged from last Friday; beef was 66.08 yuan/kg, down 0.6% from last Friday; mutton was 64.51 yuan/kg, up 0.1% from last Friday; eggs were 8.39 yuan/kg, down 1.4% from last Friday; white - striped chicken was 17.18 yuan/kg, down 1.3% from last Friday [3]. - Many soybean crushing plants began to shut down for the Spring Festival holiday from last Friday, and most of them concentrated from the 9th to the 12th, and will resume operation from the 24th to the 26th after the Spring Festival. Feed and breeding enterprises have stocked up in advance, and the market trading is light. Although the开机率 will decline after the plants shut down, the supply of soybean meal will continue to increase due to sufficient soybeans in the plants and limited demand after stocking up, which will make the soybean meal price continue to decline weakly [3]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides charts of 5 - 9 spreads for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and hogs, but no specific data analysis is given [5][7][8][11] - **Contract Basis**: The report provides charts of the basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and hogs, but no specific data analysis is given [14][17][19][24]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Corn prices are expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and in the long - term, focus on import and domestic auction policies due to supply gap [2] - Starch prices are supported in the short - term by downstream holiday stocking and inventory reduction, and long - term price depends on downstream consumption rhythm [3] - For sugar, the international market may see increased production in the 25/26 season, and the domestic market's short - term pricing refers to domestic sugar prices, while long - term it may seek the cost of out - of - quota imports [4] - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as demand is expected to improve and new - season planting area in Xinjiang may decline [6] - For eggs, observe the chicken culling situation after the decline of near - end spot prices, and the spread between culled and white chickens [14] - Apple prices of general - quality fruit farmer goods are stable to weak, while good - quality goods remain stable, with varying inventory and sales situations [17] - For pigs, the short - term spot price is weak, with mid - term pressure and long - term inflection point support, and attention should be paid to factors like slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [17] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Corn**: From February 4th to 10th, prices in some regions remained stable, with a 10 - point increase in the price in Shekou. The basis changed by - 21, and trade profit increased by 10. Near the Spring Festival, market trading is light, and prices are expected to oscillate. Long - term focus on import and auction policies [2] - **Starch**: From February 4th to 10th, prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained stable, the basis decreased by 9, and processing profit remained at - 83. Near the Spring Festival, some enterprises shut down for maintenance, and short - term prices are supported by downstream stocking [2][3] Sugar - From February 4th to 10th, prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming increased by 10, 20, and 20 respectively. The basis decreased by 7, and import profit increased by 80. The international market may have increased production, and the domestic market's short - and long - term pricing is affected by different factors [4] Cotton - From February 4th to 10th, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 80, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 50. Cotton demand is expected to improve, and it is suitable for long - term long positions [6][19] Eggs - From February 4th to 10th, prices in some producing areas remained stable, the basis increased by 7, and the price of substitutes like pigs decreased by 0.08. Observe chicken culling after the decline of near - end spot prices [13][14] Apples - From February 4th to 10th, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900.00. Due to festival stocking, inventory reduction accelerated, and prices of general - quality fruit farmer goods are stable to weak [16][17] Pigs - From February 4th to 10th, prices in some producing areas decreased, and the basis decreased by 155. The short - term spot price is weak, with mid - term pressure and long - term inflection point support [17]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are expected to remain moderately strong in the short - term due to supply constraints and downstream stocking expectations, and long - term focus should be on import and domestic auction policies [3]. - Starch prices are supported in the short - term by holiday stocking and inventory reduction, and long - term price trends depend on downstream consumption rhythms [4]. - For sugar, the international market anticipates increased production in the 25/26 season, and the domestic market's short - term pricing refers to domestic sugar, with long - term trends depending on the degree of global surplus [5]. - Cotton is suitable for long - term buying as demand is expected to improve and new - season planting area in Xinjiang may decrease [7]. - Egg prices may face pressure in the second quarter, and the key is to monitor the post - holiday price drop and the resulting impact on chicken culling [14]. - Apple prices for high - quality goods are stable, while lower - quality goods' prices are weakening, and the inventory removal speed is accelerating [18]. - The short - term pig market is entering a stage of increasing supply and demand, with medium - term pressure and long - term inflection points, and the futures market is volatile [18]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/27 to 2026/02/02, corn prices in some ports decreased (e.g., - 10 in Changchun and Jinzhou, - 20 in Shekou), while starch processing profit increased by 20 [3]. - **Analysis**: Corn prices are supported in the short - term by supply constraints and downstream demand, and long - term policies are key. Starch prices are supported in the short - term by stocking and inventory reduction, and long - term consumption is crucial [3][4]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/27 to 2026/02/02, the spot price in Liuzhou decreased by 20, and import profit from Thailand decreased by 9, from Brazil decreased by 10 [5]. - **Analysis**: The international market expects increased production, and the domestic market's short - term pricing is based on domestic sugar, with long - term trends related to global surplus [5]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/27 to 2026/02/02, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 125, and 32S spinning profit increased by 101 [7]. - **Analysis**: Cotton demand is expected to improve, and new - season planting area in Xinjiang may decline, making it suitable for long - term investment [7]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/27 to 2026/02/02, egg prices in some regions decreased (e.g., - 0.13 in Hebei, - 0.14 in Liaoning), and the basis decreased by 266 [14]. - **Analysis**: Egg prices rebounded due to pre - holiday stocking but weakened later. Post - holiday price drop and chicken culling are key factors for second - quarter supply [14]. Apples - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/27 to 2026/02/02, the 1 - month basis increased by 64, the 5 - month basis increased by 138, and the 10 - month basis increased by 87 [18]. - **Analysis**: Apple trading is light, high - quality prices are stable, lower - quality prices are weakening, and inventory removal is accelerating [18]. Pigs - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/27 to 2026/02/02, pig prices in some regions rebounded (e.g., + 0.20 in Henan Kaifeng, + 0.35 in Hubei Xiangyang), and the basis increased by 200 [18]. - **Analysis**: The short - term pig market is entering a stage of increasing supply and demand, with medium - term pressure and long - term inflection points, and futures market sentiment is volatile [18].

| 鸡蛋 | | | 产区 | | | 期现 | | 替代品 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 河北 | 辽宁 | 山东 | 河南 | 湖北 | 基差 | 白羽肉鸡 | 黄羽肉鸡 | 生猪 | | 2026/01/23 | 3.73 | 3.67 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 511 | 3.70 | 3.65 | 18.49 | | 2026/01/26 | 3.73 | 3.67 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 3.84 | 510 | 3.80 | 3.70 | 18.65 | | 2026/01/27 | 3.84 | 3.78 | 4.00 | 4.10 | 3.93 | 580 | 3.80 | 3.70 | 18.66 | | 2026/01/28 | 3.96 | 3.89 | 4.00 | 4.10 | 4.00 | 1197 | 3.85 | 3.70 | 18.72 | | 2026/01/29 | 3.96 | 3.89 | 4.00 | 4.10 | 4.0 ...

农产品早报 | 鸡蛋 | | | 产区 | | | 期现 | | 替代品 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 河北 | 辽宁 | 山东 | 河南 | 湖北 | 基差 | 白羽肉鸡 | 黄羽肉鸡 | 生猪 | | 2026/01/21 | 3.51 | 3.44 | 3.70 | 3.80 | 3.67 | 440 | 3.70 | 3.65 | 18.50 | | 2026/01/22 | 3.62 | 3.56 | 3.80 | 3.90 | 3.67 | 412 | 3.70 | 3.65 | 18.50 | | 2026/01/23 | 3.73 | 3.67 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 511 | 3.70 | 3.65 | 18.49 | | 2026/01/26 | 3.73 | 3.67 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 3.84 | 510 | 3.80 | 3.70 | 18.65 | | 2026/01/27 | 3.84 | 3.78 | 4.00 | 4.10 ...