玉米：本周，储备继续进行玉米拍卖的操作，合计拍卖进口玉米38.4万吨，成交5.67万吨，成交情况趋于清淡。短期看，新季玉米即将上市， 市场观望心态偏浓，存粮户也愿意兑现手中库存，港口现货报价走弱带动盘面价格回落，不过从进口谷物增量和当下拍卖成交情况观察，供应 增量有限的情况下市场也不具备大跌的预期，预计继续维持偏弱震荡格局。中长期视角，重点关注新季玉米上市后产区售粮积极性。在新季产 量增加与成本下滑的大背景下，价格预计仍将承压下行，直至国内消费出现好转或产区显现惜售情绪，行情才可能迎来转折。 淀粉：本周，淀粉报价小幅下调，不过随着原料成本同时下降，使得近期企业加工利润小幅小幅。短期看，受原料价格波动影响淀粉价格跟随 波动，深加工产量维持高位，下游提货积极性欠佳，行业库存持续累积，继续对价格形成压力。中长期看，成品淀粉库存高企限制企业调价空 间，叠加新季原料成本预期下移，因此对淀粉价格仍维持偏空思路。 研究中心农产品团队 2025/08/25 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract fell 1.5 to close at 986.5 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.15%; the September soybean meal contract rose 35 to close at 3,045 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.16%; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 50 to 2,920 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.74%; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 98 to close at 2,773 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.66%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 90 to 2,620 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.56% [4]. - U.S. soybeans are in a weak and volatile state. The overall weather in the production areas is good, with a crop good - to - excellent rate of 69%, which is at a relatively high level in the same period. The new - crop export sales of U.S. soybeans slightly exceeded expectations. The cost - effectiveness advantage attracted more purchases from other countries, but the absence of China, the largest buyer, led to a still slow overall sales progress. In China, there is still a supply of near - term soybeans and soybean meal. As time passes, the expectation of tight supply in the distant future is strengthening, and the Dalian soybean meal futures are oscillating and slightly rising. Due to factors such as the peak season for aquaculture and the expected decrease in future arrivals, rapeseed meal has a greater upward elasticity [4][7]. - The precipitation in the U.S. soybean production areas is generally at the average level, but the western production areas will be dry in the next two weeks. The crop conditions are good. Attention should be paid to the upcoming USDA report. Under the current import tax rate of U.S. soybeans, it is difficult for them to enter the Chinese market. However, the procurement of old - crop Brazilian soybeans is becoming more difficult, and the premium is running strongly. As time passes, the expectation of tight supply is strengthening, and the domestic futures market may continue to strengthen. For other countries, the cost - effectiveness of U.S. soybeans is prominent, and the purchase volume will also increase. The overseas market may oscillate at a low level. Overall, in the short term, the Dalian soybean meal futures may oscillate and strengthen [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Contract | 8/8 | 8/1 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 986.50 | 988.00 | - 1.50 | - 0.15% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 485.00 | 468.00 | 17.00 | 3.63% | Dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: U.S. Gulf | 443.00 | 450.00 | - 7.00 | - 1.56% | Dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | - 42.65 | - 20.24 | - 22.41 | - | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3045.00 | 3010.00 | 35.00 | 1.16% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2773.00 | 2675.00 | 98.00 | 3.66% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 272.00 | 335.00 | - 63.00 | - | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2940.00 | 2900.00 | 40.00 | 1.38% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2920.00 | 2870.00 | 50.00 | 1.74% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | - 125.00 | - 140.00 | 15.00 | - | Yuan per ton | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - U.S. soybean production area weather: The overall weather in the U.S. soybean production areas is good, with a crop good - to - excellent rate of 69%. The precipitation is generally at the average level, but the western production areas will be dry in the next two weeks. The USDA report is about to be released [4][7][9]. - U.S. soybean export situation: The new - crop export sales of U.S. soybeans slightly exceeded expectations. The cost - effectiveness advantage attracted more purchases from other countries, but China, the largest buyer, was absent, and the overall sales progress was still slow. As of the week ending July 31, 2025, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the current market year were 468,000 tons, and the cumulative export sales of 2024/2025 U.S. soybeans had completed the USDA's expected target. The net export sales of 2025/2026 U.S. soybeans in the current week were 545,000 tons, and the cumulative sales in this year were 3.58 million tons, while China had not purchased new - crop U.S. soybeans [4][7][9]. - Domestic supply situation: There is still a supply of near - term soybeans and soybean meal in China. As time passes, the expectation of tight supply in the distant future is strengthening. As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.5559 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous week; the soybean meal inventory was 1.0416 million tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous week; the outstanding contracts were 6.7687 million tons, an increase of 2.5386 million tons from the previous week. The soybean inventory at national ports was 8.237 million tons, an increase of 152,000 tons from the previous week [7][9][10]. - Market performance: The Dalian soybean meal futures are oscillating and slightly rising. Due to factors such as the peak season for aquaculture and the expected decrease in future arrivals, rapeseed meal has a greater upward elasticity [4][7]. 3.3 Industry News - StoneX predicts that the U.S. soybean production in 2025 will reach 4.425 billion bushels, with an average yield of 53.6 bushels per acre. The predicted soybean production in Brazil in 2025/26 will be 177.2 million tons, an increase of 5.6% from the previous year due to an increase in planting area and crop yield [12]. - Celeres estimates that the soybean planting area in Brazil in 2025/26 will increase by 962,000 hectares or 2% to 48.6 million hectares. If this increase is realized and the yield slightly increases, Brazil is expected to achieve a record production of 177.2 million tons [12]. - As of the week ending July 30, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed crops in Saskatchewan, Canada was 67.84%. Due to recent wet weather, the rapeseed harvest in the EU 27 and the UK has been delayed, and the predicted rapeseed production in 2025/26 is 20.3 million tons, the same as the previous forecast [13][14]. - Safras & Mercado reports that the sales volume of Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26 has reached 16.8% of the expected production, and the sales volume in 2024/25 has reached 78.4% of the expected production [13]. - The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso, Brazil from July 28 to August 1 was 390 reais per ton, down from 435.55 reais per ton in the previous week [13]. - As of the week ending July 30, the cumulative sales of 2024/25 soybeans by Argentine farmers were 27.9605 million tons, and the cumulative export sales registration volume was 8.04 million tons [14]. - The predicted soybean planting area in Brazil in 2025/26 will increase at the slowest rate in nearly 20 years, with an estimated planting area of 48.13 million hectares, an increase of 1.43% from the previous year. The predicted soybean production is 166.56 million tons, lower than the previous year's 168.74 million tons [15]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of U.S. soybean continuous contracts, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the crushing profit by region, the trend of soybean meal main contracts, the spot price of soybean meal in each region, the CBOT net position of managed funds, the spot - futures spread of soybean meal, the precipitation and temperature in U.S. soybean production areas, the flowering rate and good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans, the cumulative export sales volume of U.S. soybeans to the world, the weekly net sales volume of U.S. soybeans, the cumulative sales volume of new - crop U.S. soybeans, the weekly net sales volume of U.S. soybeans to China, the weekly export volume of U.S. soybeans, the U.S. oil mill crushing profit, the weekly average daily trading volume and pick - up volume of soybean meal, the soybean inventory at ports and oil mills, the weekly crushing volume and crushing start - up rate of oil mills, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills, and the soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises [16][21][24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: In the short - term, the supply - demand gap persists before the new crop is on the market, providing strong support for spot and near - month contract prices. In the long - term, potential increases in forward import orders and new - season supply may put downward pressure on prices [3]. - **Starch**: In the short - term, it is expected to have a weak rebound. In the long - term, high inventory and lower expected raw material costs lead to a bearish outlook [3]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, there is potential for a corrective rebound in raw sugar. Domestically, the arrival of imported sugar creates significant upward pressure on the futures market [6]. - **Cotton**: The upward trend needs verification during the September peak season. Consider 9 - 11 or 9 - 1 reverse spreads for month - spreads [8]. - **Eggs**: Spot prices are in a seasonal upward channel, but high cold - storage egg inventory and high laying - hen存栏 may limit the rebound height [13]. - **Apples**: New - season production may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the market share is squeezed by seasonal fruits [16]. - **Pigs**: Long - term supply pressure remains. Futures prices need further verification from spot prices, and short - term supply is sufficient with seasonal support [16]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From July 25 to July 31, corn prices in some regions changed, with a maximum decline of 20 yuan/ton in蛇口. Starch prices were stable, and the processing profit increased by 2 yuan [2]. - **Analysis**: Corn supply tension is slightly relieved by auctions. Starch is in a loss situation with high inventory [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From July 25 to July 31, sugar prices in some regions decreased, with a maximum decline of 20 yuan/ton in柳州. The import profit increased by 7 yuan/ton for Thailand sugar [6]. - **Analysis**: International supply pressure affects prices. Domestic import arrivals create upward pressure on the futures market [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From July 25 to July 31, the price of 3128 imported M - grade US cotton decreased by 150 yuan/ton. The 32S spinning profit increased by 77 yuan/ton [8]. - **Analysis**: Inventory reduction drives price increases, but downstream demand is weak [8]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From July 25 to July 31, egg prices in some regions decreased, with a maximum decline of 0.10 yuan in山东 and河南. The base difference decreased by 38 [13]. - **Analysis**: Seasonal factors drive price increases, but high inventory and存栏 may limit the increase [13]. Apples - **Price Data**: From July 25 to July 31, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7800 yuan/ton. The national inventory increased by 68 (unit not specified) [16]. - **Analysis**: New - season production may be similar to last year, and consumption is in the off - season [16]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From July 25 to July 31, pig prices in some regions increased, with a maximum increase of 0.40 yuan in河南开封. The base difference increased by 400 [16]. - **Analysis**: Long - term supply pressure exists, and futures prices need spot verification [16].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For corn, short - term support for spot and near - month contract prices is strong due to expected supply gap before new crop listing, but long - term supply increase may pressure prices [4]. - For starch, short - term weak rebound is expected, while long - term outlook is bearish due to high inventory and expected lower raw material cost [4]. - For sugar, international sugar price may have a corrective rebound, and the domestic market faces upward pressure as imported sugar is about to arrive in large quantities [7]. - For cotton, the price increase is driven by inventory reduction, but the upward trend needs verification in September; consider 9 - 11 or 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage for month - spreads [9]. - For eggs, the spot price is in a seasonal upward channel, but high cold - storage egg inventory and high laying - hen存栏 may limit the rebound height [14]. - For apples, the new - season output may not differ much from last year, and consumption is in the off - season with slow de - stocking [17]. - For pigs, long - term supply pressure remains, and the futures price needs further verification from the spot market [17]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From July 24 - 30, corn prices in some regions changed slightly, with a 16 - yuan increase in潍坊 and no change in蛇口. Starch prices in some regions also had minor changes, with a 50 - yuan increase in Heilongjiang and a 30 - yuan increase in潍坊 [3]. - **Analysis**: Short - term supply tension is alleviated by reserve auctions, and the price has support before new crop listing. Starch has a weak short - term rebound and a bearish long - term outlook [4]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From July 24 - 30, the spot prices in柳州, Nanning, and Kunming remained stable, the base difference increased by 63, and the import profit and warehouse receipts changed [7]. - **Analysis**: International sugar price may rebound due to uncertain Brazilian production, and the domestic market has upward pressure from imported sugar [7]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From July 24 - 30, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 215 yuan, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 196 yuan [9]. - **Analysis**: Cotton price increase is driven by inventory reduction, but the upward trend needs verification, and consider month - spread arbitrage [9]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From July 24 - 30, egg prices in some regions were stable, and the base difference increased by 68 [14]. - **Analysis**: Spot price is in a seasonal upward channel, but high inventory and high存栏 may limit the rebound [14]. Apples - **Price Data**: From July 24 - 30, the spot price in Shandong remained 7800 yuan, and the national inventory decreased by 23 [16][17]. - **Analysis**: New - season output may be similar to last year, and consumption is in the off - season with slow de - stocking [17]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From July 24 - 30, pig prices in some regions changed slightly, and the base difference increased by 125 [17]. - **Analysis**: Long - term supply pressure remains, and the futures price needs spot verification [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Corn**: In the short - term, the price of spot and near - month contracts has strong support due to the supply - demand gap before the new crop is launched. In the long - term, potential increases in imports and lower new - season planting costs may put downward pressure on prices [1]. - **Starch**: Short - term prices are expected to have a weak rebound, while long - term prices are expected to be bearish due to high inventory and lower expected raw material costs [2]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are under pressure from Brazilian supply, but may rebound. Domestic sugar prices have upward pressure due to upcoming large imports [5]. - **Cotton**: After a rapid price increase, prices may decline due to low downstream profits and expected new - crop production increases [6]. - **Eggs**: Spot prices are in a seasonal upward trend, but high cold - storage egg inventory and high laying - hen存栏 may limit the increase [8]. - **Apples**: New - season production may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and spot prices are affected by seasonal fruits [11]. - **Pigs**: Spot prices are in a weak and volatile state. Long - term supply pressure remains, and futures need further spot verification [11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: Corn prices in different regions remained relatively stable from July 18 - 24, with some minor changes. Starch prices were also stable, and the processing profit was in a loss state [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Corn supply tension has been alleviated by auctions, but the supply - demand gap persists in the short - term. Starch prices follow raw material prices and are expected to be bearish in the long - term [1][2]. Sugar - **Price Data**: Sugar spot prices in different regions were mostly stable from July 18 - 24, with a 10 - yuan decrease in the Kunming price. The import profit and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [5]. - **Market Analysis**: International sugar prices are affected by Brazilian supply, and domestic prices are affected by imports [5]. Cotton - **Price Data**: The price of 3128 cotton decreased by 20 yuan from July 18 - 24, and the import profit and other data changed slightly [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Cotton prices may decline due to low downstream profits and expected new - crop production increases [6]. Eggs - **Price Data**: Egg spot prices in different regions increased from July 18 - 24, and the basis also increased [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Egg prices are in a seasonal upward trend, but high cold - storage inventory and high laying - hen存栏 may limit the increase [8]. Apples - **Price Data**: Apple spot prices in Shandong remained stable from July 18 - 24, and the basis decreased [10][11]. - **Market Analysis**: New - season production may not differ much from last year, and consumption is in the off - season [11]. Pigs - **Price Data**: Pig prices in different regions decreased from July 18 - 24, and the basis changed significantly [11]. - **Market Analysis**: Pig spot prices are in a weak and volatile state, and long - term supply pressure remains [11].

2025 年 7 月 23 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 棕榈油：宏观助推，警惕情绪回落 豆油：跟随油脂板块，品种间偏弱 | 李隽钰 | | --- | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 | | lijunyu@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,926 | 0.18% | 8,954 | 0.31% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,076 | -0.20% | 8,072 | -0.05% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,477 | -0.90% | 9,450 | -0.28% | | | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,263 | 0.88% | 4,233 | -0.31% | | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 55.48 | -0.61% ...

二、市场信息 1. 南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025 年 7 月 1-20 日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月 同期增加 7.03%，出油率环比上月同期减少 0.16%，产量环比上月同期增加 6.19%。 2. 马来西亚独立检验机构 Amspec 表示，马来西亚 7 月 1-20 日的棕榈油出口量为 740394 吨，上月同期为 798813 吨，环比减少 7.31%。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | | 成利多，然而考虑到目前的高存栏及冷库蛋等供给问题，蛋价高点大概率低于去 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2509 | 年同期。 周一，生猪主力 早盘反弹，随后有所回落，截至收盘，日收涨 1.63%，报收 | | | | 14365 元/吨。生猪现货方面，卓创数据显示，昨日中国生猪日度均价 14.4 元/公 斤，环比涨 0.24 元/公斤，基准交割地河南市场生猪均价 14.48 元/公斤，环比涨 | | | 生猪 | 0.02 元/公斤，广东、山东、四川、辽宁不同程度上涨。养殖端挺价意愿转强， | 震荡 | | | 叠加少 ...

淀粉：本周，因生产亏损部分企业上调成品淀粉报价。短期看，原料价格表现偏强或在未来一段时间继续支撑成品淀粉价格，但是受到行业库 存偏高压制，淀粉价格反弹幅度预计有限。从中长期视角来看，下游仍然处于淡季消费期，消费提货未有好转迹象，使得产业库存趋缓缓慢， 仍旧制约淀粉价格上行空间，等待利润小幅修复后继续空配远月合约。 白糖 现货价格 基差 进口利润 仓单 日期 柳州 南宁 昆明 柳州基差 泰国 巴西 郑盘 2025/07/10 6130 6050 5895 325 383 566 23040 2025/07/11 6140 6060 5905 330 309 492 22850 2025/07/14 6140 6060 5905 323 386 569 22716 2025/07/15 6130 6060 5905 328 292 475 22602 2025/07/16 6120 6050 5905 312 - - 22289 变化 -10 -10 0 -16 - - -313 【行情分析】： 白糖：国际市场方面，现阶段巴西正处于压榨高峰期，供应压力使得国际糖价承压，下方支撑位看巴西乙醇价格。此前市场已较为充分 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-09 现货价格承压，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2935元/吨，较前日变动-2元/吨，幅度-0.07%；菜粕2509合约2576元/吨，较前日 变动-3元/吨，幅度-0.12%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2850元/吨，较前日变动-20元/吨，现货基差M09-85， 较前日变动-18；江苏地区豆粕现货2780元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差M09-155，较前日变动-8；广东地区 豆粕现货价格2780元/吨，较前日变动跌-10元/吨，现货基差M09-155，较前日变动-8。福建地区菜粕现货价格2580 元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM09+4，较前日变动+3。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部作物周报显示，截至7月6日当周，美国大豆优良率66%，一周前66%，上年同期68%， 与市场预期相符；大豆出苗率96%，一周前94%，上年同期98%；大豆开花率32%，一周前17%，上年同期32%； 大豆结荚率8%，一周前3%，上年同期8%。 市场分析 整体来看，近月到港维持千万吨级以上，油厂大豆和豆粕库存增加较快，预计在新季 ...

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/08 玉米：近期储备抛储进口玉米，使得市场供应端呈现小幅增量态势，此前紧张的市场情绪得以阶段性缓解，部分用粮企业随之下调收购价格。 短期看，抛储的意图主要为了缓和市场紧张氛围，并不是为了打压玉米价格，在进口偏少的情况下，旧作库存见底依旧对玉米价格形成支撑。 中长期来看，进口利润持续走阔，虽然短期不会对国内供应形成压制，不过警惕进口增加远月价格走弱的风险。 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 潍坊 | 锦州 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/07/01 2260 | 2490 | 2330 | 2460 | -53 | 0 | 462 | 2850 | 2950 | 102 | -63 | | 2025/07/02 2260 | 2478 | 2330 | 2460 | -33 | 0 | 470 ...