【行情分析】： 玉米：本周，市场心态继续受到定向拍储政策影响表现相对偏弱，南港价格接连几天出现回调。不过，短期看，产区农户挺价意愿依旧存在， 供应受限情况下导致流通粮源并不多，这也导致产地现货表现坚挺。近期基差走强，并且产地到港口贸易继续倒挂，介于目前下游产业库存偏 低的状态，元旦后下游将进入季节性补库阶段，或再度带动玉米价格走高。中长期来看，需重点关注结构变化，今年粮源依旧存在供应缺口的 情况下，重点关注未来进口政策和国内拍储政策变化。 淀粉：短期看，受到下游补库积极性回落因素影响，深加工去库速度放缓，因此成品淀粉报价依旧偏弱，年前预计产业继续采取以价换量模式 去库存。不过，由于原料采购成本降幅有限，预计成品淀粉调价空间同样受限，并且元旦过后还有年终备货旺季支撑，预计未来一段时期，淀 粉报价有望小幅走强。中长期需重点关注下游消费节奏变化，这将成为价格走势的关键支撑因素，季节性旺季过后，企业库存是否会持续去化 将成为未来淀粉定价的关键因素。 农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/01/09 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

农产品日报 | 2026-01-08 宏观情绪好转，板块整体偏强 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约15035元/吨，较前一日变动+180元/吨，幅度+1.21%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆 到厂价15574元/吨，较前一日变动+87元/吨，现货基差CF05+539，较前一日变动-93；3128B棉全国均价15784元/ 吨，较前一日变动+73元/吨，现货基差CF05+749，较前一日变动-107。 近期市场资讯，根据巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司CONAB统计，截至1月3日巴西2025/26年度棉花种植完成 31.2%，环比增加6.1个百分点，同比快0.1个百分点，较近三年均值慢0.3个百分点。巴西棉种植进度加快，同比小 幅领先，主要是马托格罗索州进度加快。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡上行，收于万五关口之上。国际方面，12月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度 全球棉花产需双减，期末库存微幅增加。美棉产量继续小幅调增，经过两个月的调整后美棉累库压力明显加大。 当前北半球新棉集中上市，阶段性供应压力较大，而全球纺织终端消费仍疲软，美棉出口签约进度整体仍偏慢， 短 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-1-6 节后农业板块震荡为主 油脂：供应预期宽松，油脂回调整理 蛋白粕：南美丰产预期强，双粕低位震荡 玉米/淀粉：购销逐步恢复，价格区间震荡 生猪：节后需求驱动减弱，盘面下跌 天然橡胶：看涨情绪仍存，胶价高位震荡 合成橡胶：盘面维持震荡走势 棉花：棉价增仓上行 白糖：糖价窄幅波动，中期仍承压 纸浆：资金与宏观主导行情，纸浆期货反复震荡 双胶纸：现货持稳，盘面偏强 原木：供需双弱，窄幅震荡 【异动品种】 棉花观点：棉价增仓上⾏ 逻辑：昨日开盘棉价强势上行，最高触及14875元/吨，但随后回落，涨幅 回吐，尾盘收阳。基本面方面，新棉处于集中上市期，当前加工、公检进 度快于往年，但棉花商业库存累库情况不及预期，根据BCO，截至12月中 全国棉花商业库存同比下滑，本年度截至12月底棉花表需同比增加，利多 棉价。25/26年度，虽然全国棉花产量大幅增加，但若需求延续当前增 速，年度预计紧平衡。除基本面表现较好之外，政策端预期同样利多棉 价。2026年新疆植棉面积存在缩紧预期，当前政策导向已明确，但细则未 出，缩面积的预期在明年1季度前 ...

研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/30 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/12/23 | 2160 | 2230 | 2250 | 2400 | 41 | 20 227 | 2750 | 2800 | 218 | -14 | | 2025/12/24 | 2160 | 2230 | 2250 | 2390 | 34 | 10 219 | 2750 | 2800 | 211 | -14 | | 2025/12/25 | 2160 | 2230 | 2250 | 2380 | 41 | 0 195 | 2750 | 2800 | 221 | -49 | | 2025/12/26 | 2160 | 2250 | 2250 | 2390 | 28 | -10 206 | 2750 | 2800 | ...

农产品早报 2025-12-24 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周二 CBOT 大豆窄幅下跌，美豆销售偏慢及南美丰产预期持续施压。周一国内豆粕现货上涨 10 元/吨左 右，成交尚可，提货较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 213.06 万吨，上周压榨大豆 212.06 万 吨，上周饲企库存天数为 9.23 环比上升 0.1 天，上周港口大豆大幅去库 50 万吨，不过豆粕库存因压榨 量较大有所升高，豆粕库存同比增加约 55 万吨。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 巴西主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，阿根廷主产区预计降雨量也处于正常水平，不过阿根廷最大主 产区布宜诺斯艾利斯省降雨偏少，需持续关注其天气表现。全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高，尚不 足 ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月23日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | な女女 | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | な☆☆ | | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | な☆☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 豆一主力经过短暂的跳空之后,盘面再度回升,盘面仍然在进行移仓。本周中储粮计划竞价拍卖大豆2.1万吨, 成交1.3万吨,底价3950元/吨,成交均价4027元/吨,溢价0-160元/吨。由于拍卖溢价成交,给豆一价格带来一 定的支撑,价格表 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-19 东北粮采购需求回落，玉米价格支撑减退 油脂：昨日走势分化，棕油相对抗跌 蛋白粕：南美豆供应前景乐观，内外盘延续震荡偏弱 玉米/淀粉：东北粮采购需求回落，价格支撑减退 生猪：需求阶段提振现货，生猪盘面依旧承压 天然橡胶：压力位力度较强，胶价高位回落 合成橡胶：关注调整力度及时间 棉花：棉价短期延续偏强走势 白糖：供应宽松预期下，糖价延续走低 纸浆：期货来回波动，现货持续走低 双胶纸：缺乏驱动，窄幅震荡 原木：现货企稳，盘面走强 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 玉米观点：东北粮采购需求回落，价格支撑减退 逻辑：今日国内玉米现货价格涨跌不一，东北深加工以稳为主；华北深加 工涨跌互现；北方港口稳中有涨；南放销区港口偏弱运行。近期，因市场 传出调节性储备拍卖等相关消息，叠加盘面涨至高位整数关卡，引起市场 情绪转向，盘面迎来下跌。受盘面情绪影响，上游部分区域惜售情绪有所 松动。东北方面，基层贸易商与烘干塔获利出货意愿增强，东北粮农惜售 情绪或小幅降温，致使市场流通粮源阶段性增加，售粮进程预计小 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The import cost of soybeans may have reached its bottom, but the upside potential requires a larger - scale production reduction. Domestic soybean and soybean meal are expected to trade in a range. [3] - Palm oil's short - term inventory build - up may reverse in Q4 and Q1 next year. It's recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations. [7] - The global sugar supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the international sugar price may lack significant upward momentum until Q1 next year. Domestic sugar prices are recommended for short - term observation. [10] - Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend due to unconfirmed news and hedging pressure. [13] - The near - term egg futures may squeeze the premium, and the long - term should pay attention to the upper pressure. [16] - The near - term hog futures may have limited upside, and the long - term should pay attention to the lower support. [19] 3. Summary by Category Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight CBOT soybeans closed lower. Domestic soybean meal spot prices fell slightly on Wednesday. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.0445 million tons. Brazilian and Argentine main growing areas are expected to have more rainfall. The global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio is still high. [2] - **Strategy**: Global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high but are entering the de - stocking season. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range. [3] Fats and Oils - **Market Information**: SPPOMA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production in the first ten days of December increased by 6.87% month - on - month and decreased by 2.97% in the first 15 days. December's first 15 - day exports decreased by 15.89% - 16.37%. Malaysia set the January palm oil reference price at 3946.17 ringgit per ton with an export tax rate of 9.5%. Domestic oils temporarily stopped falling on Wednesday. [5] - **Strategy**: This year's palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia exceeded expectations, and export data is poor. However, the inventory build - up may reverse. It's recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations. [7] Sugar - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weakly volatile. Brazilian mid - southern sugar production in the second half of November decreased year - on - year. Indian sugar production as of December 15 increased year - on - year. Thailand's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season and decrease in the 2026/27 season. [9] - **Strategy**: The new season's major sugar - producing countries are expected to increase production, and the global sugar market has shifted to a surplus. Domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, and short - term observation is recommended. [10] Cotton - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were narrowly volatile. As of December 12, the spinning mill's operating rate was 65.5%. The 2025/26 global cotton production is estimated to be 26.08 million tons. [12] - **Strategy**: The downstream demand is not bad, and the previous price decline has digested the negative impact of a domestic bumper harvest. Due to unconfirmed news and hedging pressure, Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend. [13] Eggs - **Market Information**: Most egg prices in the country were stable yesterday, with a few areas rising. The supply is stable, and the market sales are okay. It's expected that most egg prices will be stable in the short term, with a few areas slightly stronger. [15] - **Strategy**: The near - term futures may squeeze the premium, and the long - term should pay attention to the upper pressure. [16] Hogs - **Market Information**: Domestic hog prices mainly rose yesterday, with some areas stable or slightly falling. Some farmers are still reluctant to sell, and the demand for large hogs has increased after the temperature drop. [18] - **Strategy**: The near - term futures may have limited upside, and the long - term should pay attention to the lower support. [19]

白糖 现货价格 基差 进口利润 仓单 日期 柳州 南宁 昆明 柳州基差 泰国 巴西 郑盘 | 白糖 | | 现货价格 | | 基差 | | 进口利润 | 仓单 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 柳州 | 南宁 | 昆明 | 柳州基差 | 泰国 | 巴西 | 郑盘 | | 2025/12/11 | 5480 | 5370 | 5340 | 235 | 229 | 408 | 2101 | | 2025/12/12 | 5460 | 5370 | 5295 | 246 | 139 | 318 | 2101 | | 2025/12/15 | 5450 | 5360 | 5295 | 243 | 177 | 356 | 2101 | | 2025/12/16 | 5420 | 5340 | 5260 | 287 | 188 | 367 | 2101 | | 2025/12/17 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 变化 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 研究中心农产品团队 2025 ...

农产品早报 2025-12-12 五矿期货农产品早报 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 隔夜 CBOT 大豆小幅收涨，受出口需求支撑。周四国内豆粕现货涨 30 元，华东报 3040 元/吨，豆粕成交 一般、提货较好，消息面称通关延迟。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 205.583 万吨，上周压榨大 豆 221.16 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 8.49 天环比上升 0.32 天，上周国内大豆、豆粕均去库，因到港量 及压榨量环比下滑，国内豆粕表需下滑程度相对较小。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 巴西主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，大豆种植率已达 94%。然而阿根廷主产区预计降雨量持续较少， 产区还未达到一帆风顺。全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高，尚不足以产生 CBOT 大 ...