投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 3 月 3 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 核心逻辑：豆类市场整体呈现高位回调、内外承压的格局。中东地缘冲突虽引发大宗商品普涨，但对农产 品影响有限。受巴西丰产预期及中国需求不确定性拖累，美豆自 20 个月高位小幅回落，豆类期价跟随走 低。国内市场基本面疲软，油厂开工逐步恢复，豆粕库存高企，而下游饲料企业物理库存充足，采购意愿 低迷，导致现货价格稳中偏弱，进一步削弱市场看涨情绪。后市关注点在于南美大豆产区的天气表现，这 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural sector is experiencing a transition with various commodities showing signs of improvement in supply-demand dynamics, particularly in 2026. The focus is on the poultry, palm oil, and cotton industries as they exhibit potential for growth and investment opportunities [2][24]. Key Insights and Arguments Egg Industry - The egg industry is projected to face severe losses due to overcapacity starting in the second half of 2025, with expectations of continued impact until September 2026. However, a decrease in stock levels is anticipated, which may create upward price pressure in the future. Companies like Xiaoming Agriculture and Huayu Co. are highlighted for their long-term potential due to their connections with large-scale farms [1][4][15]. - The egg industry has a higher concentration than the pig industry, making it more attractive for investment. The average profit margin exceeded 25% from 2021 to 2024, but a significant downturn is expected due to overproduction [3][9]. Palm Oil Industry - The palm oil supply-demand relationship is marginally improving, with stable global demand growth. Even without U.S. policy changes, production cuts in Southeast Asia and price advantages in international markets support potential price increases. However, the impact of Indonesia's new government seizing palm plantation land could reduce yield rates [1][5][21]. - The palm oil market is expected to remain stable, with prices not likely to drop significantly due to seasonal production cuts in Southeast Asia [20][32]. Cotton Industry - The cotton supply-demand situation is gradually improving, with Xinjiang planning to reduce the area planted with low-yield or water-scarce cotton, which could lead to price increases. Short-term pressures may exist, but long-term potential remains strong [1][6][22]. Chicken Seed Market - The Chinese chicken seed market is highly concentrated, with the top three companies (C23) holding 75%-85% market share. The domestic chicken seed sales have plummeted, leading to a significant reduction in supply, which is expected to improve in the coming months [10][12][14]. Other Important Insights - **Economic Environment**: The current economic conditions are leading to a decline in per capita protein and oil consumption, primarily due to aging demographics and economic transitions. This has a more pronounced effect on pork consumption compared to eggs, which are more suitable for older populations [3][25]. - **Market Dynamics**: The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China regarding soybean and cotton trade, have led to China stockpiling sufficient reserves to mitigate risks. Brazil's role in the global agricultural supply chain is critical, as it supplies a significant portion of China's soybean needs [29][30]. - **Weather Events**: The potential emergence of the El Niño phenomenon in April 2027 could significantly impact agricultural markets, necessitating close monitoring of weather patterns and their effects on production [33][34]. Conclusion - The agricultural sector is poised for a recovery in 2026, with specific commodities like eggs, palm oil, and cotton showing promising signs. However, challenges such as overcapacity, geopolitical tensions, and weather-related risks must be carefully navigated to capitalize on these opportunities [2][24].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - In the short - term, corn prices may rise again due to downstream seasonal restocking after New Year's Day, and long - term price trends depend on import and domestic auction policies. Starch prices are expected to strengthen slightly in the near future, and long - term prices depend on downstream consumption rhythm [3] - Egg prices could benefit in the second quarter if there is a concentrated culling of hens before Laba Festival. The key driver is the culling rhythm [6] - Apple prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the short - term, with a near - strong and far - weak pattern in the medium - term due to consumer competition [9] - Short - term pig market sentiment is weak, and stage supply - demand mismatches may still exist in January. Long - term expectations depend on further production and inventory reduction [9] - Short - term sugar prices can be priced based on domestic sugar costs and spot prices, and may decline to the cost of out - of - quota imports if the global sugar surplus deepens [10] - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as initial inventory is low and demand is expected to improve next year [10] Group 3: Corn/Starch Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, corn prices in some regions remained stable, with a 20 - unit change in蛇口 price, a - 18 change in basis, and a 20 change in trade profit. Starch basis decreased by 8, and processing profit remained unchanged [2] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn prices are affected by policy and supply, with strong basis and potential for price increase due to downstream restocking. Starch prices are weak due to slow de - stocking, but may strengthen slightly later [3] - Long - term: Corn prices depend on import and auction policies, and starch prices depend on downstream consumption rhythm [3] Group 4: Eggs Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, egg prices in some regions increased, with a - 16 change in basis, and slight changes in substitute prices [5] Market Analysis - The key to egg price trends is the culling rhythm of hens. Concentrated culling before Laba Festival may benefit second - quarter prices [6] Group 5: Apples Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, apple spot prices remained stable, basis changed, and inventory decreased slightly [8][9] Market Analysis - Short - term: The apple market has a weak trading atmosphere, but prices are firm, and the futures market may maintain high - level oscillations [9] - Medium - term: The market has a near - strong and far - weak pattern due to consumer competition [9] Group 6: Pigs Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, pig prices in some regions changed slightly, with a - 35 change in basis [9] Market Analysis - Short - term: Market sentiment is weak after New Year's Day, but there may be supply - demand mismatches in January [9] - Long - term: Expectations depend on further production and inventory reduction [9] Group 7: Sugar Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, sugar spot prices changed slightly, basis increased by 2, import profit changed, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [10] Market Analysis - Short - term: Sugar prices can be priced based on domestic sugar costs and spot prices [10] - Long - term: Prices may decline to the cost of out - of - quota imports if the global sugar surplus deepens [10] Group 8: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, cotton prices changed, import profit and other indicators also changed [10] Market Analysis - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as initial inventory is low and demand is expected to improve next year [10]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are currently weak due to the directional auction policy, but may rise after New Year's Day due to downstream seasonal restocking. In the medium to long term, focus on import and domestic auction policies [5] - Starch prices are expected to strengthen slightly after New Year's Day supported by year - end stocking. In the long term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key [5] - Short - term sugar prices are driven by short - covering, and in the long term, if the global sugar surplus increases, prices may fall to the out - of - quota import cost [7] - Cotton is suitable for long - term buying as demand is expected to improve next year due to factors like expanding textile production, good profits and favorable tariff policies [10] - For eggs, the key is the egg - laying hen culling rhythm. Accelerated culling may benefit second - quarter egg prices [16] - Apple prices show a pattern of good quality goods being stable and lower - quality goods weakening. The market is expected to be near - strong and far - weak [19] - Pig prices are rising due to factors such as supply reduction by farmers, second - round fattening, and New Year's Day stocking. Pay attention to factors like the slaughter rhythm, diseases and policies [19] Group 3: Corn and Starch - **Price Data**: From December 23 to 29, 2025, corn prices in Changchun remained at 2160, while in other regions, there were changes such as a 30 increase in Jinzhou and a 6 decrease in Weifang. Starch prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2750 and 2800 respectively [4] - **Analysis**: Short - term corn prices are affected by the auction policy and downstream restocking. Starch prices are affected by downstream restocking enthusiasm and raw material costs [5] Group 4: Sugar - **Price Data**: From December 23 to 26, 2025, sugar prices in Liuzhou, Nanning and Kunming showed an upward trend, and the basis and import profit also changed [6] - **Analysis**: Short - term sugar prices are driven by short - covering, and long - term prices depend on the global sugar supply situation [7] Group 5: Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From December 23 to 29, 2025, cotton price at 3128 index changed from 14895 to 15240, and other related data such as import profit and spinning profit also had fluctuations [20] - **Analysis**: Cotton demand is expected to improve next year, and it is suitable for long - term investment [10] Group 6: Eggs - **Price Data**: From December 23 to 29, 2025, egg prices in different production areas changed, and the basis decreased by 105.00 [15] - **Analysis**: The key to egg price trends is the culling rhythm of egg - laying hens [16] Group 7: Apples - **Price Data**: From December 23 to 29, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first and second - grade apples remained at 8900.00, and the basis for different months changed [18] - **Analysis**: The apple market is currently in a weak state with slow inventory removal, and the price pattern is expected to be near - strong and far - weak [19] Group 8: Pigs - **Price Data**: From December 23 to 29, 2025, pig prices in different production areas increased significantly, and the basis also increased [19] - **Analysis**: Pig prices are rising due to supply and demand factors, and attention should be paid to factors like the slaughter rhythm, diseases and policies [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean and Meal**: CBOT soybeans declined slightly on Tuesday, pressured by slow sales in the US and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. Domestic soybean meal is expected to trade in a range, supported by costs but with pressure on crushing margins [2][5]. - **Oils and Fats**: Domestic oils continued to rebound on Tuesday. The high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil improved month - on - month, but high year - on - year production limited the upside. The medium - term de - stocking expectation in Southeast Asia has weakened. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [7][9]. - **Sugar**: The new sugar - crushing season is expected to see increased production in major sugar - producing countries, shifting the global supply - demand balance from shortage to surplus. International sugar prices may not improve significantly until the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. - **Cotton**: The downstream operating rate remains at a medium level, and the previous price decline has digested the negative impact of a domestic bumper harvest. Due to potential adjustments in the Xinjiang cotton target price subsidy policy, there has been short - term capital inflow, but the probability of a unilateral trend in Zhengzhou cotton is low [17]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is expected to be mostly stable with slight declines in some areas. The near - term futures contract may continue to squeeze the premium, and it is advisable to sell on rebounds. The long - term futures contract has expectations of capacity reduction, but the valuation is high [19][20]. - **Pigs**: After the Winter Solstice, demand decreases marginally but still supports pig prices. The supply is large, and the weight decline is limited. The near - term contract is expected to trade in a range, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered. The long - term contract has expectations of capacity reduction [22][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fell slightly. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose about 10 yuan/ton on Monday with good trading and pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume at oil mills to be 2.1306 million tons, slightly higher than last week. Last week, the inventory days of feed enterprises increased by 0.1 days to 9.23 days, port soybean inventories decreased by 500,000 tons, but soybean meal inventories increased due to high crushing volume, about 550,000 tons higher year - on - year [2]. - **Strategy**: Global soybean new - crop production has been marginally reduced, and the bottom of the import cost may have been reached, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and meal inventories are high, but as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [5]. Oils and Fats - **Market Conditions**: SPPOMA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 7.15% in the first 20 days of December. Ship - loading agency data indicates that exports decreased by 0.87% in the first 20 days. China's palm oil imports in November 2025 were 334,052.37 tons, a significant increase. Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel quota is 15.646 million kiloliters, similar to 2025. Domestic oils continued to rebound on Tuesday [7]. - **Strategy**: Excessive production in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed palm oil prices. The current high - supply and high - inventory situation may reverse in the first quarter of next year, but the risk of a sharp decline due to high production in 2018 - 2019 should be noted. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [9]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to rebound, with the May contract closing at 5,155 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends. In November 2025, China's sugar imports decreased by 90,000 tons year - on - year, while cumulative imports from January - November increased by 380,000 tons year - on - year. Brazilian and Indian sugar production data showed different trends [11][12]. - **Strategy**: The new sugar - crushing season is expected to see increased production in major sugar - producing countries, and the global supply - demand balance has shifted to surplus. International sugar prices may not improve significantly until the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to rise, with the May contract closing at 14,140 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. Spot prices also increased. In November 2025, China's cotton imports increased by 10,000 tons year - on - year. As of December 19, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.3%, slightly lower. The global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season was adjusted down by 60,000 tons [14][15]. - **Strategy**: The downstream demand is not bad after the peak season, and the previous price decline has digested the negative impact of a domestic bumper harvest. Due to potential adjustments in the Xinjiang cotton target price subsidy policy, there has been short - term capital inflow, but the probability of a unilateral trend in Zhengzhou cotton is low [17]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Most national egg prices were stable on Tuesday, with some areas seeing a slight decline. The average price in the main production areas dropped 0.01 yuan to 2.96 yuan/jin. Supply is normal, and terminal participation is conservative [19]. - **Strategy**: The previous over - expectation of the peak - season inventory has led to a high premium in the futures market. The near - term contract may continue to squeeze the premium, and it is advisable to sell on rebounds. The long - term contract has expectations of capacity reduction, but the valuation is high [20]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Domestic pig prices mostly rose on Tuesday, with some areas stable or slightly lower. The average price in Henan increased by 0.07 yuan to 11.69 yuan/kg, while that in Sichuan remained stable at 11.61 yuan/kg. Northern secondary fattening purchases increased, and prices may be stable with a slight upward trend. Southern demand is lower than expected, with prices stable and slightly higher in the southwest [22]. - **Strategy**: After the Winter Solstice, demand decreases marginally but still supports pig prices. The supply is large, and the weight decline is limited. The near - term contract is expected to trade in a range, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered. The long - term contract has expectations of capacity reduction [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soybeans and soybean meal are expected to trade in a range as the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but they are entering the destocking season, providing some support [2][3]. - For oils, the recent data is bearish. Although palm oil production has exceeded expectations this year, the situation of inventory accumulation due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [5][7]. - Regarding sugar, the estimated increase in sugar production in major producing countries in the new crushing season has led to a shift from a shortage to a surplus in the global supply - demand relationship. International sugar prices may not improve much until the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [10][11]. - In the case of cotton, the probability of a unilateral trend in Zhengzhou cotton is low. Although there is some demand and the previous price decline has digested the bearish news of a domestic bumper harvest, the news of subsidy policy adjustment is unconfirmed and there is hedging pressure [13][14]. - For eggs, the near - term contracts are mainly in a process of squeezing the premium, and it is advisable to sell on rebounds. The long - term contracts have the expectation of capacity reduction, but the valuation is high, so attention should be paid to the upper pressure [18]. - As for pigs, the spot market is warming up, but the near - term contracts' rebound space is limited due to high supply. It is advisable to sell after the consumption rebound. The long - term contracts have a low valuation and the theme of capacity reduction, so attention should be paid to the lower support [20][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight CBOT soybeans closed down. Domestic soybean meal spot prices fell slightly on Tuesday, with low trading volume but good pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.0445 million tons, slightly higher than last week. Last week, domestic soybeans and soybean meal both destocked, but the inventory is still high year - on - year. Brazilian and Argentine main producing areas are expected to have more rainfall, and the global soybeans' annual inventory - to - sales ratio is still high [2]. - **Strategy**: The bottom of soybean import costs may have appeared, but the upward space needs greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but they are entering the destocking season. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [3]. Oils - **Market Information**: SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.87% in the first ten days of December and decreased by 2.97% in the first 15 days. Ship - shipping agency data indicates a 15.89% - 16.37% decline in Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first 15 days of December. As of November 30, NOPA member companies' soybean oil inventory reached a seven - month high. On Tuesday, domestic oils fell due to poor palm oil export data and high - frequency production [5]. - **Strategy**: This year's palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations, and poor export data has suppressed the market. However, the situation of inventory accumulation may reverse. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [6][7]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell. Spot sugar prices in various regions also declined. India's sugar production has increased year - on - year, and Thailand's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 crushing season but may decrease in the 2026/27 season. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports has decreased [9][10]. - **Strategy**: The estimated increase in sugar production in major producing countries in the new crushing season has led to a shift from a shortage to a surplus in the global supply - demand relationship. International sugar prices may not improve much until the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [11]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices first rose and then fell. The spot price index increased, and the basis widened. As of December 12, the spinning mill's operating rate remained flat week - on - week, and the national commercial cotton inventory increased year - on - year. The global cotton production estimate for the 2025/26 year has been slightly adjusted [13]. - **Strategy**: The probability of a unilateral trend in Zhengzhou cotton is low. Although there is some demand and the previous price decline has digested the bearish news of a domestic bumper harvest, the news of subsidy policy adjustment is unconfirmed and there is hedging pressure [14]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, most egg prices in the country were stable, with a few areas having narrow adjustments. Supply was stable, market sales improved slightly, and demand increased. Short - term egg prices are expected to be mostly stable, with a few areas showing a slight upward trend [16][17]. - **Strategy**: The near - term contracts are mainly in a process of squeezing the premium, and it is advisable to sell on rebounds. The long - term contracts have the expectation of capacity reduction, but the valuation is high, so attention should be paid to the upper pressure [18]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices fluctuated slightly. Most farmers may still be on the sidelines, and the price trend varies by region [20]. - **Strategy**: The spot market is warming up, but the near - term contracts' rebound space is limited due to high supply. It is advisable to sell after the consumption rebound. The long - term contracts have a low valuation and the theme of capacity reduction, so attention should be paid to the lower support [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available Core Viewpoints - Soybeans and soybean meal are expected to trade sideways. The bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward potential requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high, but there is support as they enter the destocking season [2][4] - Palm oil may reverse the current situation of inventory accumulation in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 due to seasonal production declines, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips [7][8] - The international sugar price may lack significant improvement until Q1 2026, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long - term, with short - term观望 advised [11] - Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend in the short - term, although there is some upward pressure from capital [14] - The egg futures contracts may be overvalued, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure [17] - For live pigs, it is recommended to maintain an inverse spread strategy, gradually shifting from shorting near - term contracts to going long on far - term contracts [20] Summary by Category Soybeans and Soybean Meal Market Information - Overnight CBOT soybeans closed slightly higher due to export demand. Brazilian soybean premiums were stable, and the cost of soybean arrivals in China was stable. On Wednesday, domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 10 yuan, with the price in East China at 3010 yuan/ton. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume at oil mills to be 2.05583 million tons, down from 2.2116 million tons last week. Last week, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased [2] - Brazil's main planting areas are forecast to have more rainfall in the next two weeks, and the soybean planting rate has reached 94%. However, Argentina's main producing areas are expected to have less rainfall. The global soybean annual inventory - to - sales ratio is still relatively high, and it is expected that soybean arrival costs will mainly fluctuate in the absence of significant problems in South American weather. As of December 2, institutions reported soybean purchases of 8.76 million tons in September, 7.73 million tons in October, 6.52 million tons in November, and 4.85 million tons in December [2] Strategy - The bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but upward potential requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high, and crushing margins are under pressure. However, as they enter the destocking season, there is some support, and soybean meal is expected to trade sideways [4] Fats and Oils Market Information - MPOB's November data showed that Malaysian palm oil production decreased, but exports were sluggish, and the market was more bearish in the short - term. However, with the pre - Spring Festival restocking, Malaysian palm oil export demand is expected to improve. On Wednesday, domestic fats and oils first fell and then recovered. Foreign capital slightly increased long positions in palm oil and short positions in other fats and oils. Malaysian palm oil inventory accumulation is suppressing the market, but there is still an expectation of destocking in Southeast Asian production areas in the medium - term [6] Strategy - This year's palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations, suppressing the palm oil market. However, due to seasonal production declines, the current situation of inventory accumulation may reverse in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips [7][8] Sugar Market Information - On Wednesday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures slightly decreased. The closing price of the May contract was 5225 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in different regions remained unchanged. As of December 10, 64 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 crushing season, 7 less than the same period last year. In mid - November, Brazil's central - southern region had a sugar cane crushing volume of 18.761 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%, and sugar production of 0.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugar cane, a year - on - year increase of 15.2 million tons, and produced 4.135 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.375 million tons [10] Strategy - It is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus. The international sugar price may not improve significantly until Q1 2026. With the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the long - term trend is bearish. However, the domestic sugar price is at a relatively low level, and short - term观望 is advised [11] Cotton Market Information - On Wednesday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the May contract was 13,760 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton or 0.26% from the previous trading day. The spot price of the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,004 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The 2025/26 global cotton production forecast was下调 by 60,000 tons to 26.08 million tons in December compared to November. As of the week of December 5, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous week, and the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.47 million tons, an increase of 150,000 tons year - on - year [13] Strategy - From a fundamental perspective, although the peak season was not strong, demand was not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous price decline had digested the bearish news of a domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, there was some capital pushing up the cotton price in the short - term, but there was no strong driving force in the short - term, and the probability of a unilateral trend in Zhengzhou cotton was low [14] Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or increased, with the average price in the main producing areas rising 0.05 yuan to 3.06 yuan/jin. The market had little remaining inventory, and demand in the sales areas was okay, but the enthusiasm of dealers to purchase was average. Egg prices are expected to be generally stable with slight increases today [16] Strategy - Based on the current "weak reality" of the egg industry, the futures market has anticipated future capacity reduction, giving high premiums to far - term contracts. However, the current capacity reduction is limited, and there is uncertainty in the future rhythm. From the demand side, egg prices are likely to first fall, then stabilize, and then rise. The recent futures price trend is relatively strong, and the valuation of near - and far - term contracts may be too high, so attention should be paid to the upper pressure [17] Live Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices mostly increased, with some areas remaining stable. Affected by snow - related restocking, the supply in the north was less than demand, and pig prices may increase slightly. In the southwest, supply and demand were both high and in a stalemate, with prices likely to remain stable. In the south, it was difficult to digest the supply, and pig prices may decrease slightly [19] Strategy - The theoretical and planned slaughter volume is still large. With the increase in slaughter volume, the average weight of pigs is still high year - on - year and increasing month - on - month. The pressure on the supply side remains. Near - term contracts are still under pressure from the spot market, but may fluctuate due to spot prices and positions. The expectation of far - term capacity reduction is strong, and the downside space may be limited. It is recommended to maintain an inverse spread strategy, gradually shifting from shorting near - term contracts to going long on far - term contracts [20]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are likely to oscillate in the short - term due to unstable grain supply and weak downstream consumption, and may rebound after the first peak of grain sales in the long - term [1] - Starch prices are pressured by high inventory in the short - term and the downstream consumption rhythm will be the key factor in the long - term [2] - For sugar, maintain a high - short strategy as the global and domestic supply is loose, but the downward space is limited in the short - term [4] - Cotton is suitable for long - term buying as the new cotton output is down and the external environment has improved [7] - Egg prices may rise if the chicken culling speed accelerates, and currently the price center has moved up slightly [13] - Apple prices will fluctuate in the short - term as the new season output is down and some areas have poor quality [15] - Pig prices will oscillate in the short - term, and the de - capacity and de - inventory path is the key driver [15] Group 3: Corn/Starch Price Data - From 2025/11/07 to 2025/11/13, corn prices in Changchun remained unchanged, increased by 10 in Jinzhou and Shekou, and remained unchanged in Weifang; starch prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained unchanged [1] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn price increase is restricted by weak downstream consumption; starch price is pressured by high inventory [1][2] - Long - term: Corn price may rebound after the first peak of grain sales; starch price depends on downstream consumption [1][2] Group 4: Sugar Price Data - From 2025/11/07 to 2025/11/13, sugar prices in Liuzhou decreased, remained unchanged in Nanning, and decreased in Kunming [3] Market Analysis - Short - term: Zhengzhou sugar is more affected by domestic policies, and domestic sugar cost is the key support [4] - Long - term: If the global sugar market surplus intensifies, domestic sugar cost may be broken through [4] Group 5: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From 2025/11/07 to 2025/11/13, cotton prices decreased [5] Market Analysis - New cotton output is down, and the external environment is favorable for textile exports, suitable for long - term buying [7] Group 6: Eggs Price Data - From 2025/11/07 to 2025/11/13, egg prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan remained unchanged, and decreased by 0.06 in Hubei [13] Market Analysis - Supply pressure is relieved, demand increases, and prices may rise if the culling speed accelerates [13] Group 7: Apples Price Data - From 2025/11/07 to 2025/11/13, apple prices in Shandong remained unchanged, and national inventory decreased [14][15] Market Analysis - New season output is down and quality is poor in some areas, prices will fluctuate in the short - term [15] Group 8: Pigs Price Data - From 2025/11/07 to 2025/11/13, pig prices in some regions changed slightly, and the basis decreased by 15 [15] Market Analysis - Prices will oscillate in the short - term, and de - capacity and de - inventory are the key drivers [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: In the short - term, corn spot prices are expected to remain strong due to low domestic inventory and weakening wheat substitution profit. In the long - term, be vigilant about the risk of falling prices in the far - month due to increased imports [3]. - **Starch**: In the short - term, reduced raw materials and high prices lead to lower procurement willingness, supporting a rebound in starch prices. In the long - term, weak downstream demand restricts price increases, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts after a small profit repair [3]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar season has mixed production indicators, and the market trades on high sugar - making ratios and production increase expectations, pressuring raw sugar. Domestically, supported by import restrictions and high basis [4]. - **Cotton**: High production this year creates strong hedging pressure, limiting price increases. Without new drivers, prices may decline if demand worsens or there are macro risks; otherwise, they will oscillate [7]. - **Eggs**: After April, farmers' willingness to cull hens increased. Recently, egg prices rebounded slightly, and the culling pace slowed. After the plum - rain season, supply reduction and demand improvement may drive prices up [15]. - **Apples**: There is a slight expected production reduction in the new season. Consumption is at the end of the peak season, and current inventory is low. However, seasonal fruits may affect market share. Monitor the realization of production reduction expectations [19]. - **Pigs**: Spot prices are in a supply - demand game. Futures contracts reflect cycle and seasonal expectations. The key is the inventory reduction path, and the sustainability of the recent price rebound needs attention [22]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From June 18 - 24, corn prices in some regions were stable, with the basis increasing by 19 and import profit by 25. Starch basis increased by 17, and processing profit increased by 7 [2]. - **Analysis**: Short - term strength in corn spot prices due to low inventory and weakening wheat substitution. Starch prices are supported in the short - term but restricted by weak downstream demand in the long - term [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From June 18 - 24, spot prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the basis increased by 1. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2572 [4]. - **Analysis**: International market influenced by Brazilian production indicators, domestic market supported by import restrictions and high basis [4]. Cotton - **Price Data**: From June 18 - 24, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 55, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 74. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn increased by 22, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 58 [7]. - **Analysis**: High production restricts price increases, and prices may decline or oscillate depending on demand and macro factors [7]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From June 18 - 24, egg prices in some regions were stable, with the basis decreasing by 34. The price of substitute products had little change, and the price of pigs increased by 0.21 [14]. - **Analysis**: Farmers' culling willingness increased after April. Recent price rebound and slowed culling. Post - plum - rain season, supply - demand balance may drive prices up [15]. Apples - **Price Data**: From June 18 - 24, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples was stable, and the basis of different contracts decreased to varying degrees [18]. - **Analysis**: Slight expected production reduction in the new season. Low current inventory but affected by seasonal fruits. Monitor production reduction realization [19]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From June 18 - 24, spot prices in some regions increased slightly, and the basis decreased by 10 [22]. - **Analysis**: Spot prices in supply - demand game. Futures reflect cycle and seasonality. Key is inventory reduction path and rebound sustainability [22].