【行情分析】： 玉米：本周，市场心态继续受到定向拍储政策影响表现相对偏弱，南港价格接连几天出现回调。不过，短期看，产区农户挺价意愿依旧存在， 供应受限情况下导致流通粮源并不多，这也导致产地现货表现坚挺。近期基差走强，并且产地到港口贸易继续倒挂，介于目前下游产业库存偏 低的状态，元旦后下游将进入季节性补库阶段，或再度带动玉米价格走高。中长期来看，需重点关注结构变化，今年粮源依旧存在供应缺口的 情况下，重点关注未来进口政策和国内拍储政策变化。 淀粉：短期看，受到下游补库积极性回落因素影响，深加工去库速度放缓，因此成品淀粉报价依旧偏弱，年前预计产业继续采取以价换量模式 去库存。不过，由于原料采购成本降幅有限，预计成品淀粉调价空间同样受限，并且元旦过后还有年终备货旺季支撑，预计未来一段时期，淀 粉报价有望小幅走强。中长期需重点关注下游消费节奏变化，这将成为价格走势的关键支撑因素，季节性旺季过后，企业库存是否会持续去化 将成为未来淀粉定价的关键因素。 农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/01/09 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/30 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/12/23 | 2160 | 2230 | 2250 | 2400 | 41 | 20 227 | 2750 | 2800 | 218 | -14 | | 2025/12/24 | 2160 | 2230 | 2250 | 2390 | 34 | 10 219 | 2750 | 2800 | 211 | -14 | | 2025/12/25 | 2160 | 2230 | 2250 | 2380 | 41 | 0 195 | 2750 | 2800 | 221 | -49 | | 2025/12/26 | 2160 | 2250 | 2250 | 2390 | 28 | -10 206 | 2750 | 2800 | ...

农产品早报 2025-12-24 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周二 CBOT 大豆窄幅下跌，美豆销售偏慢及南美丰产预期持续施压。周一国内豆粕现货上涨 10 元/吨左 右，成交尚可，提货较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 213.06 万吨，上周压榨大豆 212.06 万 吨，上周饲企库存天数为 9.23 环比上升 0.1 天，上周港口大豆大幅去库 50 万吨，不过豆粕库存因压榨 量较大有所升高，豆粕库存同比增加约 55 万吨。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 巴西主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，阿根廷主产区预计降雨量也处于正常水平，不过阿根廷最大主 产区布宜诺斯艾利斯省降雨偏少，需持续关注其天气表现。全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高，尚不 足 ...

农产品早报 2025-12-17 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 斯小伟 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 【行情资讯】 隔夜 CBOT 大豆收跌，市场继续交易美豆销售偏慢及南美丰产预期。周二国内豆粕现货小幅回落 10 元/ 吨，豆粕成交低迷、提货较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 204.45 万吨，上周压榨大豆 203.75 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 9.13 环比上升 0.64 天，上周国内大豆、豆粕均去库，同比仍处高位。 巴西主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，阿根廷主产区预计降雨量也开始增加，重点关注其 1 到 3 月天 气表现。全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高，尚不足以产生 CBOT 大豆盘面种植利润丰厚的行情，预 计在南美 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available Core Viewpoints - Soybeans and soybean meal are expected to trade sideways. The bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward potential requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high, but there is support as they enter the destocking season [2][4] - Palm oil may reverse the current situation of inventory accumulation in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 due to seasonal production declines, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips [7][8] - The international sugar price may lack significant improvement until Q1 2026, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long - term, with short - term观望 advised [11] - Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend in the short - term, although there is some upward pressure from capital [14] - The egg futures contracts may be overvalued, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure [17] - For live pigs, it is recommended to maintain an inverse spread strategy, gradually shifting from shorting near - term contracts to going long on far - term contracts [20] Summary by Category Soybeans and Soybean Meal Market Information - Overnight CBOT soybeans closed slightly higher due to export demand. Brazilian soybean premiums were stable, and the cost of soybean arrivals in China was stable. On Wednesday, domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 10 yuan, with the price in East China at 3010 yuan/ton. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume at oil mills to be 2.05583 million tons, down from 2.2116 million tons last week. Last week, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased [2] - Brazil's main planting areas are forecast to have more rainfall in the next two weeks, and the soybean planting rate has reached 94%. However, Argentina's main producing areas are expected to have less rainfall. The global soybean annual inventory - to - sales ratio is still relatively high, and it is expected that soybean arrival costs will mainly fluctuate in the absence of significant problems in South American weather. As of December 2, institutions reported soybean purchases of 8.76 million tons in September, 7.73 million tons in October, 6.52 million tons in November, and 4.85 million tons in December [2] Strategy - The bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but upward potential requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high, and crushing margins are under pressure. However, as they enter the destocking season, there is some support, and soybean meal is expected to trade sideways [4] Fats and Oils Market Information - MPOB's November data showed that Malaysian palm oil production decreased, but exports were sluggish, and the market was more bearish in the short - term. However, with the pre - Spring Festival restocking, Malaysian palm oil export demand is expected to improve. On Wednesday, domestic fats and oils first fell and then recovered. Foreign capital slightly increased long positions in palm oil and short positions in other fats and oils. Malaysian palm oil inventory accumulation is suppressing the market, but there is still an expectation of destocking in Southeast Asian production areas in the medium - term [6] Strategy - This year's palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations, suppressing the palm oil market. However, due to seasonal production declines, the current situation of inventory accumulation may reverse in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips [7][8] Sugar Market Information - On Wednesday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures slightly decreased. The closing price of the May contract was 5225 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in different regions remained unchanged. As of December 10, 64 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 crushing season, 7 less than the same period last year. In mid - November, Brazil's central - southern region had a sugar cane crushing volume of 18.761 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%, and sugar production of 0.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugar cane, a year - on - year increase of 15.2 million tons, and produced 4.135 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.375 million tons [10] Strategy - It is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus. The international sugar price may not improve significantly until Q1 2026. With the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the long - term trend is bearish. However, the domestic sugar price is at a relatively low level, and short - term观望 is advised [11] Cotton Market Information - On Wednesday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the May contract was 13,760 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton or 0.26% from the previous trading day. The spot price of the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,004 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The 2025/26 global cotton production forecast was下调 by 60,000 tons to 26.08 million tons in December compared to November. As of the week of December 5, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous week, and the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.47 million tons, an increase of 150,000 tons year - on - year [13] Strategy - From a fundamental perspective, although the peak season was not strong, demand was not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous price decline had digested the bearish news of a domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, there was some capital pushing up the cotton price in the short - term, but there was no strong driving force in the short - term, and the probability of a unilateral trend in Zhengzhou cotton was low [14] Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or increased, with the average price in the main producing areas rising 0.05 yuan to 3.06 yuan/jin. The market had little remaining inventory, and demand in the sales areas was okay, but the enthusiasm of dealers to purchase was average. Egg prices are expected to be generally stable with slight increases today [16] Strategy - Based on the current "weak reality" of the egg industry, the futures market has anticipated future capacity reduction, giving high premiums to far - term contracts. However, the current capacity reduction is limited, and there is uncertainty in the future rhythm. From the demand side, egg prices are likely to first fall, then stabilize, and then rise. The recent futures price trend is relatively strong, and the valuation of near - and far - term contracts may be too high, so attention should be paid to the upper pressure [17] Live Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices mostly increased, with some areas remaining stable. Affected by snow - related restocking, the supply in the north was less than demand, and pig prices may increase slightly. In the southwest, supply and demand were both high and in a stalemate, with prices likely to remain stable. In the south, it was difficult to digest the supply, and pig prices may decrease slightly [19] Strategy - The theoretical and planned slaughter volume is still large. With the increase in slaughter volume, the average weight of pigs is still high year - on - year and increasing month - on - month. The pressure on the supply side remains. Near - term contracts are still under pressure from the spot market, but may fluctuate due to spot prices and positions. The expectation of far - term capacity reduction is strong, and the downside space may be limited. It is recommended to maintain an inverse spread strategy, gradually shifting from shorting near - term contracts to going long on far - term contracts [20]

玉米：短期看，粮源供应不稳定推动产地现货价格小幅上行，但下游消费端依旧疲软，对涨价幅度形成明显抑制。未来一段时间，供需双方博 弈仍将持续，价格大概率维持震荡运行格局。中长期观察，等待第一轮售粮高峰结束，观察产区农户与贸易商间的博弈。由于新季玉米产量增 加、种植成本下滑等原因，玉米价格已逐步向种植成本靠拢；但鉴于当前估值较低且今年粮质较好，预计现货价格回调后，会触发农户惜售抗 价的情绪，届时供应收缩将带动玉米价格走出反弹行情。 淀粉：短期看，淀粉报价跟随原料价格波动。新季玉米上市后，深加工采购积极性增加，开机率也逐步上调，不过由于下游补货依旧平缓，造 成产业去库缓慢，在高库存的压制下，淀粉价格依旧承压。中长期需重点关注下游消费节奏变化，这将成为价格走势的关键支撑因素，若淀粉 报价出现大幅回落，预计将刺激下游补货积极性。 白糖 现货价格 基差 进口利润 仓单 日期 柳州 南宁 昆明 柳州基差 泰国 巴西 郑盘 2025/11/07 5760 5750 5650 303 680 861 8968 2025/11/10 5730 5760 5650 255 623 804 8968 2025/11/11 5760 - ...

农产品早报 | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/06/25 | | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/06/18 | 2240 | 2330 | 2410 | 2450 | -33 | -10 | 407 | 2800 | 2950 | 151 | -73 | | 2025/06/19 | 2240 | 2330 | 2420 | 2450 | -75 | -10 | 400 | 2800 | 2950 | 145 | -72 | | 2025/06/20 | 2240 | 2330 | 2430 | 2460 | -79 | 0 | 410 | 2800 | 2950 | 144 | -72 | | 2025/06/23 | - | 2330 | 2440 | ...