The dollar index (DXY00) rallied to a 3.5-week high on Thursday and finished up by +0.19%.  Stronger-than-expected US economic news on Thursday boosted the dollar, as weekly jobless claims fell to a 5-week low, and the Feb Philadelphia business outlook survey unexpectedly rose to a 5-month high.  The dollar also has some positive carryover from Wednesday, when the hawkish minutes of the Jan 27-28 FOMC meeting stated that "several" officials suggested the Fed may need to raise interest rates if inflation st ...

Treasuries ticked higher in choppy trading, ending a two-day selloff, amid heightened geopolitical tensions and ongoing concerns about the outlook for inflation. Yields were mixed, with the benchmark 10-year note falling to 4.07% and policy-sensitive two-year note yields marginally rising to 3.47%. Most Read from Bloomberg The market pared steeper losses earlier in the session after President Donald Trump’s comments about negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, warning that the nation had 10 t ...

showing the trade deficit surging in December. This is important too. 70 billion up 33% from November.Let's discuss it all with David Zervos. He's the chief market strategist at Jeffre. David, it's great to see you.I mean, is it bad. I kind of want to talk trade deficit a little bit. Like it's was that just a one-mon aberration.What's going on here. >> I think look, I've never gotten very excited about one month or even three months of data. I think you need to see the trend and the trend has been that uh t ...

Investors and the White House may be betting on multiple interest-rate cuts this year, but the Federal Reserve just delivered a warning: The next move could be up, not down. Minutes of the January Federal Open Market Committee released Feb. 18 show several Fed officials discussed the possibility of raising interest rates if sticky inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. That’s right: a resumption of interest-rate hikes if the nation’s labor market continues to stabilize but inflation persists. “Sev ...

Investors are dealing with a bout of Walmart (WMT) jitters. Shares of Walmart (WMT) seesawed on Thursday following below-consensus outlooks for the first quarter and full year. The company's stock dropped in early trading before reversing losses. The company checked a lot of boxes for the bulls. Operating profits grew faster than sales at all of Walmart's business segments. E-commerce sales rose by double-digit percentages at Walmart US and Sam's Club. And the retail behemoth uncorked a new $30 billion ...

U.S. equity markets are experiencing a volatile session this Thursday, February 19th, 2026, as investors grapple with a mix of disappointing corporate guidance, geopolitical tensions, and fresh economic data that complicates the outlook for interest rate cuts. After a strong performance on Wednesday led by technology gains, the major indexes have softened during midday trading, struggling to maintain upward momentum.Midday Market Performance and Index TrendsAs of midday, the major benchmarks are trading in ...

Quick Read The personal savings rate collapsed from 6.2% to 4.2% over the past year. At 1.82% inflation $50K in annual retirement expenses will double to $102K over 25 years. Transfer receipts grew 9.3% year-over-year versus 4.1% wage income growth. A recent study identified one single habit that doubled Americans’ retirement savings and moved retirement from dream, to reality. Read more here. If you're in your mid-50s and haven't seriously confronted your retirement numbers, here's the uncomfor ...

The tail end of last year saw a spike in borrowing as rising prices hit consumers hard. New personal loans rose by 24% in the third quarter of 2025 when compared to a year earlier, driven by borrowers with the lowest credit scores, while new credit card accounts spiked by 11.7%, with strong growth from both subprime and superprime consumers, according to new data out Thursday from TransUnion. "People are turning to credit as we continue to see stubbornly high inflation," Michele Raneri, vice president ...

Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari said Thursday he thinks the central bank is “pretty close” to neutral on the level of its benchmark policy rate, implying there may be little room left to cut rates. “We've cut interest rates a bunch in the last couple of years,” Kashkari said during a fireside chat at the Fargo Moorhead West Fargo Chamber of Commerce. “My guess is we're pretty close to neutral on where our monetary policy is, but ultimately, we need to see, where does inflation go? Does it come all ...

Economic Indicators - The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on February 20, which is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve and could influence monetary policy for 2026 [1] - The PCE Price Index is preferred by the Fed over the Consumer Price Index (CPI) because it provides a broader measure of inflation and quickly reflects changes in consumer behavior [2] Inflation Trends - Recent CPI data showed consumer prices rose 2.4% annually in January, slightly below the expected 2.5%, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) at 2.5%, the lowest since April 2021 [3] - If the upcoming PCE Price Index confirms a moderation in inflation, it would align with the CPI report, indicating inflation is moving closer to the Fed's target [4] Monetary Policy Implications - A confirmation of moderating inflation would give the Fed room to implement additional interest rate cuts, with the futures market currently pricing in two to three quarter-percentage point cuts in 2026 [5] - Lower interest rates or the expectation of them could positively impact the stock market by reducing borrowing costs for companies and consumers, potentially boosting spending [6]