Commodities - Oil prices reached year-to-date highs of US$67.01, driven by geopolitical tensions following US President Trump's warning to Iran regarding nuclear negotiations [1] Currency and Labor Market - The USD index extended its recent gains, marking a fourth consecutive day of increases with a 0.1% rise [2] - US weekly jobless claims for the week ending February 14 were reported at 206,000, down from a revised 229,000, indicating labor market resilience [2] - The US economy added 130,000 new jobs in January, with the unemployment rate decreasing to 4.3% [2] Economic Data and Forecasts - The upcoming US Q4 GDP first estimate is expected to show a growth rate of 3.0%, a deceleration from Q3's 4.4% but still considered healthy [4] - The GDP deflator is projected to decrease to 2.9% from 3.7% [4] - The PCE price index is anticipated to remain unchanged at 2.8% year-on-year, with a modest increase in month-on-month figures [5] Federal Reserve Implications - An upside surprise in PCE data could support the Fed's current stance and strengthen the USD, while softer inflation could have the opposite effect [6]

Central Banks Overview - The Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes revealed a divide among officials regarding future interest rate paths, with some open to rate hikes if inflation remains high [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde faces speculation about her potential early departure, although she stated her intention to complete her term until October 2027 [2] - The Bank of England is expected to implement two rate cuts this year, influenced by rising unemployment and softer wage growth, alongside a decrease in consumer price inflation to 3% in January [3][4] Economic Indicators - The UK's unemployment rate has reached its highest level in nearly five years, prompting market expectations for rate cuts [3] - Consumer price inflation in the UK has fallen to its lowest level in almost a year, indicating a potential easing of monetary policy [4] - KPMG UK chief economist noted signs of a softer labor market and a positive trend in inflation, suggesting more room for rate cuts [4][5]

Joining us now, it is Fox News superstar contributor and former Utah Congressman Jason Chaffitz along with another Jason, former Trump campaign and transition team senior adviser. It is Jason Miller. Uh so gentlemen, you just heard the president on that allimportant stump.Is he selling his version of affordability to Georgia voters. And does it matter. Jason Chaffitz >> got a story that's real, that's true, that's backed with facts, and and people can start to feel it in their pocketbook, especially at the ...

NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street kept calm Friday after the Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which had triggered panic in financial markets when announced last year, and stocks ticked higher. The S&P 500 rose 0.7%. It had been flipping between small gains and losses before the court’s ruling, following discouraging reports showing slowing growth for the U.S. economy and faster inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 230 points, or 0.5%, and the Nasdaq composite r ...

Group 1 - Yields on US government debt are near their lowest levels in months due to haven demand amid stock-market volatility and a tame January inflation reading, suggesting investor expectations for potential rate cuts later this year if labor-market weakness is observed [1][9] - Invesco, Carmignac, and BNP Paribas do not share the outlook of further rate cuts, citing strong economic data, including January job growth exceeding projections and significant corporate investments in artificial intelligence [2][9] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate a cautious stance on rate cuts, with some policymakers suggesting that rate hikes may be necessary if inflation remains above the 2% target [2][9] Group 2 - Macro strategists at TS Lombard recommend betting on fewer rate reductions in the second half of 2026, while Invesco's fixed-income chief strategist anticipates one rate cut this year, though the likelihood of no cuts is increasing due to robust economic data [3][6] - Carmignac's co-head of fixed income, Guillaume Rigeade, is short US Treasuries and predicts the 10-year yield could rise to 4.5% in the coming months, up from approximately 4.1% [7][9] - Recent economic data presents mixed signals, with a headline annual consumer inflation figure of 2.4% indicating cooling, yet services prices have accelerated, creating a complex environment for bond investors [8][9]

JGBs rose in price terms in the morning Tokyo session, aided by government data released earlier showing slowing inflation in Japan. ...

Key TakeawaysJapan’s National CPI slowed to 1.5% in January, marking the slowest pace of inflation in two years and signaling a potential shift in the Bank of Japan’s hawkish trajectory.Gold prices hovered near the historic $5,000 mark as traders weighed geopolitical risks involving Iran against cautious interest rate signals from the Federal Reserve.Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) shares plunged 10% following a redemption halt at its Blue Owl Capital Corp II fund, sparking liquidity concerns across the private ...

Shop owners of a 70-year-old "takoyaki", or octopus balls, restaurant chat while cooking along a street in the Taito Ward area of Tokyo on February 21, 2025.Japan's headline inflation rate fell to 1.5% in January, its lowest level since March 2022. The reading ended a run of 45 straight months in which inflation had remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% target.Core inflation rate, which excludes fresh food prices, eased to 2%, the lowest level since January 2024 and matching the 2% forecast by economists po ...

US stock futures slid on Friday as investors digested economic data that showed US economic growth cooling in the fourth quarter, while the Fed's favored inflation gauge heated up to end last year. Wall Street also kept an eye out for US-Iran tensions, private credit jitters, and a potential Supreme Court tariff decision. Contracts on the S&P 500 (ES=F) moved down roughly 0.3%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) fell 0.2%, coming off the end of a three-day winning streak on Thursday. Nasdaq ...

US stocks rose on Friday after the Supreme Court ruled that President Trump's sweeping "Liberation Day" tariffs are unlawful, saying he lacked the authority to impose them using emergency powers. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) both moved up 0.4%, coming off the end of a three-day winning streak on Thursday. The tech-exposed Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the way higher, rising 0.6%. Stocks reversed course on the heels of the decision, having slid at the open as investors d ...