Core Viewpoint - The article examines the historical trends of the 10-year Treasury yield since 1962, highlighting its relationship with key economic indicators such as the Fed Funds Rate, inflation, and the S&P 500. Group 1: Historical Trends - The 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 15.68% in October 1981 during the Volcker era and reached a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020 amid pandemic-related economic uncertainty [2][3] - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) was raised to a historic high of 20.06% in January 1981 to combat inflation, leading to the peak in the 10-year yield [3] - Following the 2008 financial crisis, the FFR was lowered to approximately 0.04% in May 2020, resulting in the 10-year yield dropping to 0.55% [4] Group 2: Recent Developments - From May 2022 to August 2023, the Fed raised the FFR to its highest level in over 20 years, causing the 10-year yield to rise in tandem [5] - In September 2024, the Fed implemented three consecutive rate cuts, while the 10-year yield moved in the opposite direction, indicating persistent inflation [6] - By the end of December 2025, the 10-year yield averaged 4.16%, with inflation at 2.74%, and the Fed cut the FFR by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50-3.75% [8] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 and the 10-year yield generally move in opposite directions, but during inflationary periods, both can rise simultaneously due to the impact of higher interest rates on corporate profits and bond prices [9]

Markets are positioned for a soft landing, but strategists warn pent-up demand and renewed fiscal spending could push growth—and inflation—higher than expected. ...

Group 1: Tariffs and Market Reactions - Trump's announcement of sweeping tariffs in April led to a significant market downturn, with the S&P 500 dropping nearly 5% on April 3 and an additional 6% the following day due to fears of a trade war with China [1][2] - The tariffs caused a decline in the value of the U.S. dollar and affected the U.S. Treasury market, prompting Trump to pause the tariffs on April 9 after observing market reactions [2] - Despite initial turmoil, Wall Street experienced a strong summer driven by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence technology and positive corporate earnings, alongside three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Trump actively lobbied the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, challenging the traditional independence of the Fed in making monetary policy decisions [4] - The Fed maintained steady interest rates through August as inflation remained above the 2% target, which frustrated Trump despite his own trade policies contributing to inflation concerns [5] - Tensions between Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell escalated, with Trump publicly criticizing Powell's management, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [6][7] Group 3: Global Market Performance - U.S. stocks achieved double-digit gains, but many foreign markets outperformed, with South Korea's KOSPI experiencing its largest gain in over two decades due to technology investments [8] - Japan's Nikkei 225 also saw significant gains, supported by a focus on AI and a $135 billion stimulus package following national elections [9] - European markets performed well, with Germany's DAX benefiting from increased government spending on infrastructure and defense, while the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts provided additional support [9][10]

The year 2025 was filled with bullish Bitcoin (BTC) forecasts, and nearly all of them were wrong. At midnight on Dec. 31, Bitcoin ended the year at $87,000, far below expectations from prominent voices in the crypto world. Here’s how some of those predictions stacked up: Related: Cardano founder predicts Bitcoin could hit $250K by 2026 — Is it realistic? What actually happened to Bitcoin in 2025 Bitcoin began 2025 on a strong footing, quickly rallying to $102,000 in early January around Donald Trump a ...

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to experience solid growth in 2026, with lower unemployment and slightly reduced inflation compared to 2025 [2][9] - Vanguard's forecast for 2026 includes a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.2% from 4.6% in November 2025, driven by increased investments in AI and other projects [7] Employment and Job Market - The job market is anticipated to rebound in 2026 after a sluggish performance in 2025, as businesses increase investments and economic growth drives demand for workers [7][9] Economic Growth - GDP growth is projected at 2.25% for 2026, supported by strong investment numbers and fiscal policy changes, particularly tax cuts from the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" [7][10] Inflation Trends - Inflation is expected to remain elevated due to the continued impact of tariffs, with consumer prices rising by 2.6% in 2026, slightly down from 2.8% in September 2025 [10][11]

Long-maturity Treasuries began 2026 on the defensive following the market’s biggest annual gain in five years, as investors focused on the potential for additional Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts to stoke inflation. While the losses were limited, the 30-year bond’s yield was higher by about two basis points at 4.87% after rising nearly twice as much to the highest level since September. Shorter-maturity yields that are more closely tied to the interest rate set by the Fed were little changed to lower o ...

Michael Faulkender, the former deputy secretary of the U.S. Department of Treasury, believes it’s too early to doubt President Donald Trump’s record on the economy. "I think we should recognize how well it set the foundation next year," Faulkender said of the administration’s record in an appearance on Fox Business' "Kudlow" on New Year's Eve.With 2025 in the rearview mirror, Faulkender believes the changes the administration made in its first year will disprove criticisms from Democrats that a Republican g ...

The Year America's Economic Edge Evaporated 作者：罗伯特·伯吉斯 罗伯特·伯吉斯是彭博观点版块的执行主编。此前，他曾担任彭博新闻社负责金融市场的全球执 行主编。 又到了投资者查看账户，决定节日庆祝方式的时候了：是香槟鱼子酱配香槟，还是啤酒薯片配啤 酒？MSCI美国指数16.3%的涨幅似乎表明前者更有可能，然而，后者或许更合适。 没错，股市涨幅已连续第三年轻松超过长期平均水平。但这一结果很难印证唐纳德·特朗普总统 反复宣称的美国是全球"最火热"的国家。与世界其他地区相比，美国股市表现平平：MSCI美国 指数的涨幅远不及MSCI全球所有国家指数（不包括美国）29.2%的涨幅。 摄影师：Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images North America 这种情况不可能持续下去。事实上，个人储蓄率已降至4%，为2022年以来的最低水平，而 2022年正是通货膨胀肆虐之时。 为了理解此次表现究竟有多糟糕，不妨想想，自2009年全球经济开始从金融危机中复苏以来， 从未发生过如此规模的事件。股市并非个例，美国债券和美元也同样表现不佳。 投资者为何如此迅速地抛售 ...

March Euro currency (E6H26) futures present a selling opportunity on more price weakness. See on the daily bar chart for the March Euro currency futures that price action this week has negated an uptrend as the bulls are now fading. See, too, at the bottom of the chart that the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator has just produced a bearish line crossover signal, whereby the blue MACD line crosses below the red trigger line. More News from Barchart Fundamentally, sticky U.S. inflati ...

The US economy ended 2025 looking healthier than most forecasts predicted. Growth picked up late in the year, inflation cooled from its peak and financial markets delivered another strong year with the S&P 500 raising 16%. ...