Market Transition - The housing market has shifted from a seller's market to a buyer's market, marking the first shift in at least a decade [3] - Sellers are hesitant to lower prices due to concerns about not being able to pay off their mortgages, a situation unseen in 10-15 years [3][11] - The market is expected to remain in limbo until around the time of the Super Bowl, as people pack it in for the holidays and wait to see what direction the housing market will take [5] Factors Influencing Market Behavior - Macroeconomic uncertainty and stock market volatility are causing people to hesitate on making 30-year commitments to new homes [5][6] - Lower interest rates, especially if they drop below 6%, would help the market [6] - Home prices need to adjust, as sales volume is down as much as 50% in some markets, but prices remain relatively stable, creating a standoff between buyers and sellers [7] Regional Cold Spots - Areas that were previously hot, like Florida and Texas, are now experiencing the most stale listings [12] - Over 70% of listings in Florida are stale [11] - The Washington DC area has seen a sharp increase in stale listings, potentially due to government uncertainty [11]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - BBVA Argentina's inflation-adjusted net income for Q3 2025 was ARS 38.1 billion, a decrease of 39.7% quarter over quarter, resulting in a quarterly ROE and ROA of 4.7% [7] - The capital ratio decreased by 170 basis points to 16.7%, primarily due to the temporary impact of sovereign debt valuation, yet remains at ample levels for growth [6][15] - The liquidity ratio reached 44.3% of deposits, down from 48.7% in the previous quarter [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total loans to the private sector grew by 6.7% in real terms, with a consolidated market share of 11.39% [5][12] - Deposits increased by 10.2% in real terms, with market share rising to 10.09% [6][14] - Non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for private loans was 3.28%, below the system average, indicating effective credit risk management [6][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Deposit rates surged from 30% in July to peaks of 70% in September due to political uncertainty and monetary policy changes [4] - The demand for exchange rate hedging increased, leading to some dollarization of deposits [4] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on operational efficiency through strict expense control and active pricing strategies to navigate a volatile environment [3][5] - BBVA Argentina aims to maintain growth in credit and operational efficiency while managing risks associated with high NPLs [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the high interest rates have negatively impacted intermediation margins and increased delinquency levels, but they remain optimistic about future growth [5][26] - The expectation is for a challenging fourth quarter, with potential increases in NPLs, but a recovery is anticipated in 2026 [26][31] Other Important Information - The bank's total operating expenses decreased by 3.4% quarter over quarter, reflecting proactive efficiency measures [9][10] - The bank continued dividend payments corresponding to the 2024 financial year income, demonstrating commitment to shareholder value [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance on loan and deposit growth - Management reiterated guidance of 45%-50% real loan growth and 30%-35% deposit growth, with ROE expectations in the high single digits [19][20] Question: Genuine loan growth versus refinancing - Management confirmed that loan growth is genuine, primarily driven by US dollar loans and commercial lending, while retail loans have seen no growth due to high NPLs [20] Question: Daily reserve requirements and NIM outlook - Changes in reserve requirements are expected to improve liquidity and profitability, with a stable NIM anticipated moving forward [24][28] Question: Asset quality and NPL trends - Management expects NPLs to rise slightly in the fourth quarter but anticipates a return to normal levels in 2026 [26][31] Question: Optimal capital levels - The bank aims to stabilize capital ratios around 17%, with a comfortable management level slightly below 13% [31][32]

Group 1 - The Chicago PMI for November shows a reading of 36.3%, indicating a significant decline and marking the lowest level since May 2024 [1] - The manufacturing sector in Chicago has not been above the expansion threshold of 50 for two years, with the last reading above 50 occurring in November 2023 [1] Group 2 - Weak economic indicators are contributing to rising yields, which is causing confusion in the market [2] - The stock market is responding to these economic conditions, suggesting a complex relationship with interest rates [2][3] - Long-term interest rates are challenging to maintain at lower levels, as evidenced by recent settlements around 4% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion revolves around the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy, particularly the balance between addressing inflation and supporting the labor market, with a focus on potential leadership changes within the Fed. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Role and Policy - The Federal Reserve has become an activist institution over the past 25-30 years, and there is a desire for it to return to a more background role similar to the Alan Greenspan era [2][4] - Central bankers face a delicate balance between managing inflation and the jobs market, which can sometimes conflict with policy decisions [3] - Interest rates should ideally be above the rate of inflation to prevent long-term economic issues [4][6] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Conditions - The current economic environment has seen a sharp rise in inflation over the past five years, impacting small and medium-sized businesses significantly [5][13] - A softer labor market is viewed as a symptom of inflation rather than the primary issue, indicating that inflation should be prioritized in policy decisions [5][11] - The absolute level of inflation remains high, and addressing this is crucial for fostering a healthier economy and stronger job growth [13] Group 3: Leadership Changes and Candidates - Kevin Hasset is currently seen as a leading candidate to replace Jay Powell as Fed chairman, with discussions around the structure and independence of the Fed [9][10] - The qualifications of potential candidates, including Hasset, are acknowledged, but there is caution against slashing interest rates without considering the long-term implications [11][14] - The importance of maintaining an independent Fed is emphasized, as market reactions could reflect dissatisfaction with the Fed's direction [10][14]

Interest rates are too high.The Fed should cut 50 basis points in December. ...

Economic Indicators - Retail Sales for September increased by +0.2%, falling short of expectations and down from +0.6% in the previous two months, marking the lowest level since May's -0.8% [2][8] - The Control number for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) came in at -0.1%, significantly lower than the +0.3% expected and the worst monthly figure in over a year [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September was +0.3%, up from -0.1% the previous month but lower than +0.7% in July; year-over-year PPI increased to +2.7% [4] Employment Data - The preliminary ADP jobs data showed a decline of -13.5K, marking the third consecutive week of job losses, with the 4-week average falling below previous reports [5][6] - Upcoming monthly ADP jobs numbers for October are expected to show a potential weakening in job growth, with a possibility of the headline coming in below zero for four out of the last six months [6] Earnings Reports - Alibaba (BABA) reported earnings of $0.66 per share, missing estimates by 5 cents, but shares rose +3% due to stronger AI cloud sales, with a year-to-date increase of over +90% [9] - Best Buy (BBY) exceeded earnings expectations with $1.40 per share, leading to modest share gains, while Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) surpassed expectations by over +10% with earnings of $2.36 per share, resulting in an +18% increase in shares [10] - Kohl's (KSS) reported a positive surprise of +152% with earnings of +$0.10 per share, leading to a +26% increase in early trading [11] - Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) beat earnings expectations with $2.78 per share, but shares fell due to the announcement of Foot Locker closures [12]

Core Insights - HELOC interest rates are at their lowest in 2025, with potential for further decreases in December as the Federal Reserve is likely to lower the federal funds rate [1][2] - The average HELOC rate is currently 7.64%, down over 40 basis points since the start of the year, with homeowners holding more than $34 trillion in home equity [3] - Homeowners are less likely to sell their homes due to low primary mortgage rates, making HELOCs an attractive option to access home equity [4] HELOC Rates and Market Dynamics - The prime rate, which influences HELOC rates, is currently at 7.00%, and lenders have flexibility in pricing, making it essential for consumers to shop around for the best rates [5][6] - Introductory rates for HELOCs can be significantly lower, but they typically adjust to higher rates after an initial period [6][9] - Current offers include a 5.99% APR for 12 months on HELOCs up to $500,000, highlighting the importance of comparing rates and terms [9] Usage and Benefits of HELOCs - HELOCs allow homeowners to access equity without refinancing their low-rate primary mortgages, providing flexibility in borrowing and repayment [7][10] - The ability to borrow only what is needed and pay interest only on that amount is a key advantage of HELOCs [10] - Homeowners can utilize HELOC funds for various purposes, including home improvements and personal expenses, while maintaining their favorable mortgage rates [12] Financial Considerations - Monthly payments on a $50,000 HELOC at a 7.50% interest rate would be approximately $313 during the draw period, but rates are variable and can increase over time [13] - The structure of HELOCs typically involves a 10-year draw period followed by a 20-year repayment period, making them suitable for short-term borrowing needs [13]

Core Viewpoint - Stock futures are declining as investors prepare for delayed economic data that may influence interest rate expectations [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 81 points, or 0.2% [2] - S&P 500 futures also fell by 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 contracts dropped by 0.4% [2] - The three major indexes experienced a rally on Monday, with the Nasdaq achieving its best performance since May [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Two Federal Reserve policymakers indicated support for a potential rate cut at the upcoming Dec. 9-10 policy meeting [3] - Traders are currently pricing in an 81% probability of a quarter-point rate reduction, an increase from 50% a week prior [3]

Core Insights - Best Buy Co., Inc. is highlighted as a stock to watch, with expectations of being impacted by higher interest rates and tariffs, but potentially benefiting from a PC refresh cycle [1] Company Overview - Best Buy sells a variety of technology products, electronics, appliances, and entertainment items, along with services such as delivery, installation, and technical support [2] - The company was previously considered a strong dividend stock, yielding 4.5%, but was removed from a list of interesting prospects due to its reliance on strong consumer growth and tariff relief [2] Market Context - The upcoming earnings report for Best Buy is anticipated to be affected by external economic factors, including tariffs and interest rates [1] - There is a comparison made with AI stocks, suggesting that while Best Buy has potential, certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and less downside risk [3]

Group 1 - Interest rates are expected to be higher according to the Taylor rule, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy [1] - Thanksgiving air travel is projected to be the busiest in 15 years, suggesting a significant recovery in the travel industry [1]