President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh on Friday to serve as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, set to succeed Jerome Powell when his term expires in May 2026.Who Is Kevin Warsh?Kevin Warsh is a former Federal Reserve governor, financier and lawyer with long-standing ties to Washington and Wall Street. He served on the Fed's Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and, at 35, ranked among the youngest governors in modern central bank history. Born April 13, 1970, in Albany, New York, Warsh earned a b ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses macroeconomic forecasts and trends affecting global markets, particularly focusing on GDP growth and inflation rates across various regions including the US, Euro area, and China [4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Global GDP Growth**: Expected to be 2.9% year-over-year in 2026, driven by fading US tariffs and rising real income growth [4][5]. - **US Economic Outlook**: Anticipated real GDP growth of 2.5% on a Q4/Q4 basis in 2026, supported by tax cuts and easing financial conditions, despite trade policy uncertainties [4][5]. - **Inflation Trends**: Core PCE inflation in the US is projected to decline to 2.1% year-over-year by the end of 2026, as tariff impacts diminish and wage/shelter inflation trends improve [4][5]. - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Fed is expected to implement two 25 basis point cuts in 2026, leading to a terminal rate range of 3-3.25% [4][5]. - **Euro Area Growth**: Projected real GDP growth of 1.2% year-over-year in 2026, with inflation expected to decline to 1.8% due to lower energy prices and a stronger Euro [4][5]. - **China's Economic Performance**: Forecasted real GDP growth of 4.8% year-over-year in 2026, bolstered by resilient export growth and government policy easing, despite sluggish domestic demand [4][5]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including US-China relations and developments in Venezuela and the Middle East, pose significant risks to economic stability [5]. - **Commodity Price Forecasts**: LME aluminum price forecasts have been raised to $3150/$2965/$2435 per metric ton for 3/6/12 months, reflecting a balanced global market that supports high prices without rapid production increases [1]. - **Unemployment Rates**: The unemployment rate in the US is expected to stabilize at 4.5% by the end of 2026 [4][5]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the macroeconomic outlook and potential investment implications across various regions and sectors.

NEW YORK (AP) — Financial markets churned on Friday as investors tried to figure out what President Donald Trump’s new nominee to lead the Federal Reserve will mean for interest rates. U.S. stocks fell, with the S&P 500 down 0.4% after sinking as much as 1.1% earlier in the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 179 points, or 0.4%, and the Nasdaq composite lost 0.9%. The value of the U.S. dollar rallied, but only after swiveling a couple times following Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh. And som ...

Core Viewpoint - The Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF was initially expected to outperform the S&P 500 in 2025, but the S&P 500 delivered a higher return due to the AI surge [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Thesis - Small-cap stocks were trading at their greatest valuation gap relative to large caps in over 25 years, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.1 for Russell 2000 components compared to 5.0 for S&P 500 companies [3]. - Falling interest rates generally favor smaller companies, as they are more reliant on borrowed money, leading to increased investment in riskier assets like small-cap stocks [4]. Group 2: Current Outlook - Despite the S&P 500's outperformance, a 13% return for the Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF is considered solid historically, and the ETF is viewed as a long-term investment [5]. - The valuation gap between small caps and large caps has widened further, suggesting potential for small caps to outperform in the coming decade, similar to trends observed during the dot-com boom [6]. - Experts anticipate that interest rates will continue to trend lower, and regulatory support from the Trump administration may benefit small-cap companies [7].

The benchmark rate is one factor affecting the cost of auto loan interest rates, but industry factors affect the cost, too. Both new and used vehicle prices have been climbing since production shortages in 2020. Costs were leveling out, but tariffs on vehicles, parts and raw materials are expected to raise vehicle prices again over the summer. Higher prices mean larger loans and higher interest rates.The increases can be attributed to the higher benchmark rate and more expensive vehicles. Stay up to date wi ...

Group 1: Bitcoin and Market Dynamics - Bitcoin is classified as a commodity by the SEC and CFTC, yet it is currently facing significant selling pressure, remaining below $90,000 after peaking near $126,000 in October [1][2] - The general expectation among traders is that the downtrend observed in Q4 2025 is over, with prices anticipated to break higher soon [1] - The current market backdrop is concerning, with inflation and high interest rates causing nervousness among investors [3] Group 2: Impact of Oil Prices - Oil prices are rising rapidly, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increasing nearly 12% this month to $64, which adds pressure on Bitcoin prices [2][5] - Higher energy prices contribute to inflation, leading to increased costs for consumers and businesses, which can negatively impact risk assets like cryptocurrencies [4][5] - The Federal Reserve closely monitors energy prices, as rising costs can lead to sustained high interest rates, further affecting the crypto market [5][6] Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - Escalating tensions with Iran pose additional risks, particularly with the U.S. deploying an aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East, which could impact oil supply routes [7] - Traders are concerned about a potential worst-case scenario involving the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for 20% of the world's oil [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained its key interest rate in the range of 3.5%-3.75% [1] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of avoiding political involvement for future Fed leadership [2] - The S&P 500 index reached 7,000 for the first time but closed below that level [4] Group 2 - Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Tesla reported earnings that exceeded expectations, with Meta and Tesla shares rising while Microsoft shares fell [3] - Deutsche Bank announced record profits for the last quarter of 2025 [4] - Roche projected "high single digit" growth for its core earnings per share in 2026 [4] Group 3 - Gold prices surged past $5,500, reaching a record high, although one analyst suggested the precious metals market is "broken" [5] - China and Britain are set to deepen cooperation in key sectors following a visit by U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer [3]

The precious metal rose 1.5% on Thursday, extending its rally this year to 27%. Silver climbed almost 1% to an all-time high as precious metals continued their breakneck advance. West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to the highest level since September after President Donald Trump warned Iran to make a nuclear deal. Trump warned Iran to make a nuclear deal with the US or face military strikes far worse than the attack he ordered last June, increasing pressure on the regime and propelling oil prices highe ...

The Fed held rates firm in its first meeting of 2026 and the market shrugged. Plus, tech earnings heat up. ...

After three rate cuts last year, six rate cuts since 2024, the Fed now in a holding pattern here, not really giving many clues to when it could begin cutting interest rates again. 10 of the 12 members voted to keep rates steady. Two wanted a quarter point rate cut.So, the Fed keeps rates unchanged here. The Fed noting that the overall economy is growing at a solid pace. It gives them some breathing room here.They note that job gains have remained low, but the job market seems to have stabilized. At the same ...