Core Insights - Google stock (NASDAQ: GOOGL) has returned $357 billion to investors over the past decade through dividends and stock buybacks, driven by significant revenue growth and margin expansion [2][5] - Annual revenue increased from approximately $182.5 billion in 2020 to $385.5 billion, with net profit margins rising from around 22% to over 32% by 2024 [2][4] - Google Services, including Search and YouTube, maintained profit margins above 35%, reaching nearly 40% by 2024, while Google Cloud transitioned from a loss of $5.6 billion in 2020 to an operating income of $6.1 billion by 2024 [3][4] Financial Performance - The combination of revenue growth, expanding margins, and disciplined cost management has resulted in substantial free cash flow, positioning Alphabet as a leading capital-return entity [4] - GOOGL stock ranks as the 3rd highest in total returns to shareholders historically, indicating strong management confidence in financial stability and cash flow generation [5] - Recent revenue growth was recorded at 13.4% over the last twelve months, with a free cash flow margin of approximately 19.1% and an operating margin of 32.2% [8] Market Position - The overall capital returned to shareholders as a percentage of market cap appears inversely related to growth potential for reinvestments, with companies like Meta and Microsoft showing faster growth but returning less capital [6] - Despite strong fundamentals, GOOGL has experienced significant declines during market downturns, highlighting the susceptibility of even leading stocks to market conditions [9]

Market Trends & Risk Factors - Increased risk-seeking and volatility from retail investors are evident in cryptocurrency and options investments [2] - A potential risk exists if consumers culturally pull back on risk or if regulatory issues arise [1] - Overall trading volumes have dipped slightly with the decrease in prices of growth stocks or cryptocurrency, but average trades and activity per day have not declined as much [3] Robinhood's Business & Financial Performance - Robinhood is well-positioned to offer products to investors due to its mix of products and trading interface [2] - Over time, the correlation between Robinhood's stock and cryptocurrencies should decrease [4][5] - Crypto trading revenues should decline as a percentage of Robinhood's revenue growth as prediction markets grow and the stock becomes more geared towards net interest revenues and lending [5] - Robinhood has attractive operating leverage and incremental margins due to a high fixed cost base [6] - Increased revenue from new users and products should significantly improve Robinhood's bottom line [7]

Let's get to the broader markets. Our next guest is bullish about the new year. Says worries about tech's high valuations are misplaced.Joining us here this morning at Post9 is Tally Leisure, chief market strategist at the Wealth Consulting Group. Nice to have you in T. Welcome.>> Thank you. Good to be here. At least to have you, Dad.>> You're uh you're pretty constructive on next year. >> Yes. And I'm glad we're sitting down for that conversation because we see the S&P 500 achieving 85 8500 >> 8500 driven ...

Market Outlook - The S&P 500 is projected to reach 8,500, driven by rising earnings and decreasing interest rates, with a positive sentiment expected to boost the stock market [2] - There is a belief that the technology sector will enable broader market growth, including small-cap stocks, as innovation drives a catch-up phase [3] Economic Indicators - Stability in inflation is observed, with a slight cooling dynamic, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decisions [4] - The consumer sentiment index indicates that 5-year inflation expectations have returned to levels seen a year ago, reflecting a positive economic outlook [5] Sector Performance - Cyclical sectors such as industrials, financials, and energy have recently outperformed, suggesting a positive economic growth outlook for the upcoming year [5][6] - Financial conditions are easing, supporting a reacceleration in the broader economy, which is favorable for cyclical stocks [7] Labor Market and Consumption - There is a concern regarding potential headwinds from a softening labor market, which could impact consumption and overall economic growth [8] - Despite concerns, consumption levels have been at record highs, and as long as sales continue to accelerate while payrolls decelerate, margin expansion is expected [9]

Core Viewpoint - Elanco Animal Health is entering a new phase focused on sustainable growth, margin expansion, and a stronger balance sheet, as outlined during its first Investor Day in five years [1] Financial Outlook - Elanco projects mid-single-digit organic revenue growth, high-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth, and low-double-digit adjusted EPS growth starting in 2026 [2] - The company anticipates free cash flow of at least $1 billion from 2026 to 2028, with net leverage expected to fall below 3x in 2027, targeting a long-term range of 2.0x to 2.5x [2] R&D Investments - Elanco plans to expand R&D operations in Indianapolis and increase its U.S.-based manufacturing footprint, including investments in its Kansas monoclonal antibody facility [3] - The company expects approximately $1.1 billion in revenue from its innovation portfolio in 2026, an increase from prior expectations for 2025 [4] - Elanco has expanded its focus to eight innovation areas and added two new internal development platforms in monoclonal antibodies and immunotherapy [4] - More than 10 major pipeline programs are in place, with approvals expected for five to six differentiated assets between 2026 and 2031 [5] Cost Initiatives - Elanco detailed its Ascend productivity initiative, expecting $25 million in savings in 2026 and $60 million in 2027, affecting 600 roles through reductions or shifts [6] - A related charge of approximately $175 million is anticipated, with the Ascend program expected to deliver $200 to $250 million in adjusted EBITDA savings by 2030, achieving about 30% of this in 2026 [6] Analyst Insights - Analysts noted initial details on over 15 projects in key areas, including five to six blockbusters, positioning Elanco for three waves of innovation over the next decade [9] - If Elanco successfully executes its pipeline, it is expected to deliver upside to its long-term financial targets [9] - Elanco shares were trading at 21 times the 2026 EPS estimate, with an Outperform rating maintained by analysts [10]

Paylocity FY Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Paylocity (NasdaqGS:PCTY) - **Event**: FY Conference held on December 10, 2025 - **Speakers**: Sheldon McMeans (Barclays) and Ryan Glenn (CFO of Paylocity) Key Highlights Financial Performance - **Q1 FY26 Results**: - Recurring revenue growth of **14%** - Total revenue growth of **12%** - Raised guidance for revenue and profitability due to strong performance [3][4][8] - **Long-term Targets**: - Increased targets based on significant progress in EBITDA and free cash flow leverage, and strong gross margin leverage [8][9] Market and Demand Environment - **Macro Environment**: - Stable macro and demand environment with slight year-over-year increase in client workforce levels [3][10] - **Client Base**: - Average client has about **150 employees**; successful in moving upmarket to larger clients [17][29] Product and Service Offerings - **HCM Market Growth**: - HCM market continues to grow with mid-to-high single-digit unit growth and increasing average revenue per client [29][30] - **AI and Automation**: - AI embedded in all products; significant year-over-year increase in adoption of AI assistant [46][57] - AI expected to enhance client experience and retention [57][61] Sales and Marketing Strategy - **Sales Headcount**: - Sales headcount increased by **8%** over the last two years; revenue per rep continues to climb [31][34] - **Client Engagement**: - Strong engagement at the Elevate conference with both existing clients and prospects [24][25] Competitive Landscape - **Market Position**: - Continued to take market share in the HCM payroll space; stable win rates against competitors [26][38] - **Defensibility Against AI**: - Complexities in payroll compliance and high-touch service model provide a competitive moat against new entrants [46][49] Future Outlook - **Margin Expansion**: - Optimistic about expanding gross margins through AI efficiencies and maintaining high client satisfaction [92][93] - **Capital Allocation**: - Active share repurchase program with **$500 million** repurchased since May 2024; plans to continue buybacks [109][110] - **International Strategy**: - Focus on serving multinational corporations and adapting to trends of smaller businesses hiring internationally [125][126] Additional Insights - **Integration of Acquisitions**: - Successful integration of Airbase acquisition, with expectations of high adoption rates for new finance products [63][64] - **Client Retention**: - High levels of client retention noted, with a focus on maintaining service quality while leveraging AI for efficiency [91][92] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the Paylocity FY Conference, highlighting the company's financial performance, market dynamics, product offerings, and strategic outlook.

Core Insights - Chewy has experienced significant stock underperformance, down approximately 54% over the last five years, while the S&P 500 has returned 87% since November 2020 [1][2] - Despite challenges, Chewy is a profitable online retailer focusing on high-margin services, positioning itself for potential growth [2][8] Revenue Growth and Customer Loyalty - Chewy's revenue growth was previously in double-digit percentages until 2023, facing increased competition from major retailers like Walmart and Amazon [4] - The company benefits from strong customer loyalty, with over 80% of sales driven by its Autoship program, leading to a recent 9% year-over-year revenue increase [5][4] Market Position and Industry Potential - Chewy operates in a $157 billion pet industry, which has shown steady growth, indicating room for multiple companies to succeed [7] - The company’s exclusive focus on pet products differentiates it from larger retailers, enhancing its competitive position [4][7] Margin Expansion and Future Growth - Chewy is expanding into high-margin services such as Chewy+ membership, pet healthcare, and private label products, which could drive higher earnings [8] - Analysts project Chewy's operating margin to increase from 0.9% to 4.6% by fiscal 2030, potentially leading to annualized earnings growth of 18% [9] Stock Valuation and Investment Potential - The stock is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 22, suggesting attractive upside potential [10] - If Chewy meets analysts' earnings expectations, the stock could potentially double in value over the next five years [10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 net sales grew over 8% year-over-year to $3.12 billion, primarily driven by unit volume growth, not price [7][12] - Gross margin expanded roughly 50 basis points year-over-year to 29.8%, driven by sponsored ads growth and a strong auto ship baseline [9][12] - Adjusted EBITDA reached $181 million, up 30% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.8%, representing a 100 basis points year-over-year expansion [9][14] - Free cash flow for the quarter was approximately $176 million, up nearly $70 million sequentially [9][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Autoship customer sales increased 13.6% to $2.61 billion, outpacing total company growth [7] - Active customers reached 21.2 million, up nearly 5% year-over-year, with improvements across every part of the active customer funnel [8] - Net sales per active customer reached $595, up nearly 5% year-over-year [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company continues to outperform the pet category and expand market share, with profits growing faster than sales [6] - Marketing efficiency continues to strengthen, attracting high-quality customers and improving LTV to CAC ratios [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for a long-term objective of a 10% adjusted EBITDA margin, with ongoing investments in automation and health services [6][21] - Chewy Vet Care (CVC) is driving strong utilization and customer loyalty through high-margin services, with plans to open additional clinics [10] - The acquisition of Smart Equine is expected to enhance Chewy's premium health and nutraceutical assortment [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to deliver consistent, durable EBITDA expansion over the next several years [20][21] - The company expects to continue taking market share while maintaining disciplined, customer-centric growth [20][21] - For 2026, management anticipates a structural unit volume growth year, with pricing benefits expected to be slightly larger than in 2025 [43][45] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately 1.5 million shares for $55 million during the quarter [15] - The company ended Q3 with approximately $675 million in cash and cash equivalents, remaining debt-free [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does the team continue to evolve learnings about the lifetime value of customers? - Management discussed the strong intersection between Autoship, Chewy Plus, and CVC, emphasizing their complementary nature in driving customer retention and profitability [26][27] Question: Can you talk about the drivers of active customer growth? - Active customer growth was driven by improvements in customer acquisition and retention, with better experiences on platforms leading to higher conversion rates [33][34] Question: What is the preliminary outlook for demand in 2026? - Management views 2026 similarly to 2025, expecting low single-digit growth in the industry and a focus on share-taking [43][44] Question: Can you discuss trends in gross margins and expectations for 2026? - Management expects continued gross margin expansion driven by various levers, including premium category mixes and the health ecosystem [61][62] Question: How has the Chewy Plus program performed after the price increase? - Conversion rates have remained strong post-price increase, and the program is expected to deliver gross margins in line with the overall enterprise [70][71]

Core Insights - Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) is effectively managing tariff-related pressures through disciplined cost control and operational efficiencies, leading to improved gross and EBIT margins [1][5] Financial Performance - In Q3 of fiscal 2025, the EBIT margin increased by 60 basis points year-over-year to 6.2%, while the gross margin rose by 30 basis points to 44.2% [1][9] - Merchandise margin improved by 10 basis points, and freight costs decreased by 20 basis points, contributing to the overall margin enhancement [1] - Product sourcing costs decreased by 40 basis points due to supply chain and efficiency initiatives [1] Cost Management - Adjusted selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) improved by about 20 basis points due to store efficiencies, although this was offset by a 20 basis point increase in depreciation from higher spending on supply chain and new stores [2] - Management focused on vendor negotiation, assortment adjustments, faster inventory turns, and distribution center productivity to mitigate tariff-driven markup pressure [3] Future Guidance - Management raised guidance for fiscal 2025, expecting the adjusted EBIT margin to increase by 60 to 70 basis points, up from the previous range of 20 to 40 basis points [4] - For Q4, the adjusted EBIT margin is projected to rise by 30 to 50 basis points, with earnings per share expected to be between $4.50 and $4.70, indicating a year-over-year increase of 9% to 14% [4] Market Position - BURL's shares have gained 10% over the past six months, outperforming the industry, which rose by only 0.5% [6] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 25.42, lower than the industry average of 30.15 [7] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BURL's fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 17.6% and 13%, respectively [11]

Core Insights - The Coca-Cola Company demonstrated strong margin performance in Q3 2025, with a 120 basis points expansion in operating margin despite a slight 10 basis points dip in gross margin, driven by cost control and efficiency initiatives [1][9] - The company reported a 6% increase in comparable earnings per share to 82 cents, although results were impacted by a 6% currency headwind [1][2] Group 1: Margin Performance - The expansion in operating margin is attributed to a balance of reinvestment and productivity, with Coca-Cola focusing on marketing, digital transformation, and innovation while also improving efficiencies in cost of goods sold, advertising, and SG&A [2][9] - Key contributors to profitability include improved media productivity, supply-chain optimization, and tighter expense discipline [2][9] Group 2: Future Outlook - Coca-Cola anticipates further margin support from the completion of its refranchising strategy, particularly in India and Africa, which is expected to enhance the company's margin profile over time [3][9] - Management also expects a modest currency tailwind in 2026, which could provide additional support to earnings and margins if current rates persist [3] Group 3: Competitor Analysis - PepsiCo's margins showed improvement in Q3 2025, aided by cost optimization efforts, although higher supply chain and tariff-related costs created a headwind [6] - Monster Beverage reported strong margin expansion with gross margin rising to 55.7% from 53.2% year-over-year, driven by pricing actions and supply-chain optimization [7] Group 4: Financial Metrics - Coca-Cola's free cash flow generation was robust at $8.5 billion for the quarter, excluding fairlife-related payments, indicating a strong underlying margin structure [2] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21.99X, which is significantly higher than the industry's 18.16X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Coca-Cola's earnings implies year-over-year growth of 3.5% for 2025 and 8% for 2026, with estimates remaining unchanged over the past 30 days [11]