M Global Insight May 20, 2025 06:00 PM GMT Global Economics Mid-Year Outlook Skewed to the Downside Global growth steps down by a percentage point from 2024. US trade policy and the uncertainty it engenders are the main drivers. Central banks have to confront the slowing, but the Fed must wait until inflation ebbs. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could aff ...

Core Insights - Diageo plc reported net sales of $4.4 billion for Q3 fiscal 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 2.9% driven by organic growth, despite foreign exchange challenges and disposals [1] - Organic net sales rose by 5.9% year-over-year, with significant contributions from various regions, particularly Latin America and the Caribbean, which saw a 29% increase [2][3] Sales Performance - Organic volumes increased by 2.8% and price/mix improved by 3.1%, with phasing gains contributing nearly 4% to organic net sales growth [2] - Regional performance varied, with North America up 6%, Asia Pacific up 2%, Latin America and the Caribbean up 29%, Africa up 10%, while Europe remained flat [2] Tariff Impact - The company faces a 10% tariff on U.K. and European imports into the U.S., with an estimated annual impact of C$150 million [5] - Tariffs between the U.S. and China are not expected to materially affect the business, with management aiming to mitigate nearly half of the operating profit impact [6] Strategic Initiatives - Diageo has launched the first phase of its Accelerate program, focusing on cash delivery goals and operational excellence, aiming for a more agile global operating model [7] - The company forecasts sustainable free cash flow of C$3 billion per year starting fiscal 2026, supported by C$500 million in cost savings over three years [8] Financial Guidance - Diageo anticipates a sequential improvement in organic net sales growth in the second half of fiscal 2025, despite a slight drop in organic operating profit compared to the previous year [10][12] - The effective tax rate for fiscal 2025 is projected to be around 25%, consistent with the previous year [13] Capital Expenditure - The company expects capital expenditure to be at the upper end of its previously guided range of $1.3-$1.5 billion for fiscal 2025 [14]

20 May 2025 | 7:01AM CST China Property Weekly Wrap Week 20 Wrap - Transactions rebounded with more upbeat performance from export-oriented cities Key highlights for the week: Our tariff impact assessment (Exhibit 1 to Exhibit 4, more details on methodology) showcases more upbeat performance from export-reliant cities: 1) transaction: under web-registration metrics, the most export-reliant cities outperformed in primary (+26% wow in aggregated volume vs. flattish for rest cities) but lagged peers in seconda ...

Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. All statements other than statements of historical fact included in this presentation are forward- looking statements. You can identify forward-looking statements by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts. These statements may include words such as "anticipate," "estimate," "expect," "project," "plan," "intend," "believe," "outlook" and other words o ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the quarter ended March 31, core net investment income was 18¢ per share, compared to total distributions of 24¢ per share [16][20] - As of March 31, GAAP and adjusted NAV were $7.48 per share, down 1.2% from $7.57 per share in the prior quarter [20] - The debt to equity ratio was 1.28 times, indicating a diversified capital structure across multiple funding sources [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The portfolio totaled $1,200,000,000, with $177,000,000 invested in three new and 52 existing portfolio companies at a weighted average yield of 10.7% [17] - The joint venture (JV) portfolio grew to $1,400,000,000, with the JV investing $170,000,000 at a weighted average yield of 10.1% during the quarter [18] - The weighted average yield on debt investments was 12%, with 91% of the debt portfolio being floating rate [21][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Approximately 80% of originations came from existing borrowers, while 20% were new platform investments [7] - The weighted average debt to EBITDA for new portfolio company investments was 3.9 times, with an interest coverage of 2.3 times and a yield to maturity of 11.6% [10] - The portfolio's weighted average leverage ratio was 4.7 times, and the interest coverage ratio was 2.1 times [11][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns through income while preserving capital, focusing on growing middle market companies with high free cash flow conversion [19] - The strategy includes rotating out of larger equity positions and redeploying that capital into interest-paying debt investments to increase core net investment income [16] - The company remains selective in pursuing new investments, emphasizing rigorous underwriting and maintaining strong relationships with existing portfolio companies [9][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that despite market volatility, the company had a solid quarter and expects originations to remain concentrated among existing portfolio companies [7][9] - The management expressed optimism about the upcoming vintage of loans, which is expected to be particularly attractive [10] - The company is closely monitoring the potential impact of tariffs on its portfolio, reporting limited exposure [11] Other Important Information - The company has $58,000,000 or 88¢ per share of undistributed spillover income, which will be used to cover any shortfall in core net investment income versus dividends [17] - The company has a long-term track record of generating value by financing growing middle market companies in five key sectors: business services, consumer, government services and defense, health care, and software technology [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: How would you characterize the current pipeline for new investments? - Management indicated that M&A deals were delayed due to tariffs and uncertainty, but there has been modest activity recently, with a growing pipeline expected for the rest of the year [26][27] Question: How much of the lower level of new deals was due to stricter underwriting? - Management noted that tariff-impacted deals were avoided, while the majority of their focus remains on sectors not significantly affected by tariffs [30][31] Question: What is the outlook for government reimbursement exposure? - Management highlighted a substantial increase in defense spending and stated that their portfolio is well aligned with government priorities, particularly in technology-related investments [41][43] Question: How is the healthcare portfolio performing? - Management reported that the healthcare portfolio is performing well, with a focus on lower leverage to mitigate risks [48][49] Question: Is there any shift in the mix of the current pipeline since April? - Management confirmed that the majority of their activity remains with existing borrowers in sectors not impacted by tariffs, while being cautious with new deals [53]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenues for Q1 2025 were $1,090 million, a decrease of 5% year over year, primarily due to lower Topgolf same venue sales and unfavorable foreign currency rates [42][43] - Q1 adjusted EBITDA increased by 4% to $167 million, driven by improved profitability in the golf equipment and active lifestyle segments [42] - Available liquidity increased by $85 million to $805 million as of March 31, 2025, compared to Q1 2024 [45] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Topgolf Q1 revenue decreased by 7% year over year due to lower same venue sales and the sale of the World Golf Tour business [43] - Golf equipment revenue decreased by 1% to $444 million, but operating income increased by 24% to $102 million due to improved gross margins and cost savings [44] - Active lifestyle segment revenue decreased by $17 million to $255 million, primarily due to the planned rightsizing of the Jack Wolfskin business [44] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. rounds played were up 3.8% in March, but down slightly year to date, reflecting weather impacts [15] - Same venue sales at Topgolf were down approximately 12% for Q1, with corporate events down 13% [27] - Overall traffic in the second quarter through April was approximately flat year over year, with one to two bay traffic up low single digits [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced the sale of Jack Wolfskin to ANTA Sports, allowing for greater business focus and financial flexibility [8] - Topgolf is implementing a strategic reset to improve value perception while maintaining a premium brand image, with initiatives like Sunday Funday and Topgolf Nights aimed at driving traffic [20][21] - The company is committed to separating Topgolf from its core business to unlock shareholder value, with various alternatives being evaluated [48][49] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about a price-sensitive consumer environment and the impact of corporate spending pressures on the events business [30][58] - The company remains optimistic about the golf equipment segment, noting strong consumer demand and market conditions [57] - Future guidance for Topgolf same venue sales has been revised to a decline of 6% to 12%, reflecting economic uncertainty [51] Other Important Information - The company expects to maintain its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance for Topgolf despite anticipated revenue declines [51] - Tariff impacts are projected to be approximately $25 million for the year, with the company taking proactive measures to mitigate these costs [9][52] Q&A Session Summary Question: Any change in the industry backdrop for the core golf equipment business? - Management indicated no significant changes, with strong consumer demand and a positive outlook for the golf business [57] Question: How much of the softness in Topgolf is attributed to macro factors versus competition? - Management noted that corporate spending pressure is a direct macro impact, while the consumer remains price-sensitive [58] Question: What are the plans for managing venue-level cost structures going forward? - Management expressed confidence in long-term venue margins, emphasizing ongoing investments in value and efficiency improvements [66] Question: Was there any impact from the Easter shift on business performance? - Management acknowledged a shift but did not consider it material to their guidance [69] Question: What are the specifics of the cost savings achieved? - Management stated that proactive cost savings have been implemented across all areas of the business, benefiting overall performance [75] Question: How is the value proposition being adjusted for the events business? - Management is offering more local flexibility and incentives to win sales, while maintaining the premium nature of the product [100]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of $210.5 million, a decrease of 17.3% compared to Q1 2024 [8][12] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $38.4 million, down 42.1% year-over-year, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.2%, a decrease of approximately 790 basis points from the prior year [15] - Adjusted net income was $17.7 million, a decrease of 51.6% from the previous year, with adjusted EPS at $0.13 [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The self-storage segment saw a revenue decline of 23.1%, attributed to decreased volume due to economic uncertainty [8][12] - New construction revenues decreased by 25.5%, primarily due to project delays linked to high interest rates [12] - The R3 segment experienced a revenue increase of 19.3%, driven by door replacement and renovation activities, despite a nearly 50% decrease in retail big box conversions [12][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The international segment's revenues increased by $6.5 million, or 44.2%, compared to the prior year, due to normalizing market conditions following a recession in the UK [13] - The commercial and other sales channel experienced a 1% decline, primarily due to softness in the rolling sheet door market, partially offset by contributions from the TMC acquisition [8][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational excellence and disciplined capital allocation while investing for long-term success [6][7] - A cost reduction plan is in place, expected to yield annual pre-tax savings of $10 million to $12 million by the end of 2025 [9][15] - The company anticipates a shift in customer focus towards optimizing and upgrading existing properties rather than new construction [17][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the underlying demand for self-storage solutions despite current market volatility [9][11] - The company expects to see strengthening results in the latter half of 2025, with a reaffirmation of full-year revenue guidance between $860 million and $890 million [17][18] - Management noted that the current tariff environment is manageable, with estimated impacts in the low single-digit millions for 2025 [10][11] Other Important Information - The company generated cash from operating activities of $48.3 million and free cash flow of $41.9 million in the quarter, representing a free cash flow conversion of 170% of adjusted net income [16] - The company repurchased 600,000 shares for $5.1 million during the quarter, with $16.3 million remaining on its share repurchase authorization [10][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the latest on project delays and order activity in the pipeline? - Management noted that projects are moving through the pipeline, with steady small growth in both backlog and pipeline [25][27] Question: How is pricing expected to change given steel inflation and tariffs? - Management indicated that pricing would blend into the year, with Q1 not as impacted due to existing inventory [28][29] Question: What is the expected cadence of cost savings from structural reductions? - The company expects to reach a full run rate for cost savings by the end of Q2, with various initiatives in place to drive these savings [52] Question: How is the R3 segment performing and what are the expectations for retail conversions? - Management observed incremental increases in R3 projects and expects retail conversions to stabilize [39][40] Question: Are there signs of stabilization in the commercial segment? - Management confirmed stabilization in the commercial segment, with growth in certain product lines [46] Question: Are there more project starts moving forward or cancellations? - Management reported an increase in project starts, with no unusual cancellations noted [48]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of $210.5 million, a decrease of 17.3% compared to Q1 2024 [8][13] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $38.4 million, down 42.1% year-over-year, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.2%, a decrease of approximately 790 basis points from the prior year [15] - Adjusted net income was $17.7 million, a decrease of 51.6% from the previous year, with adjusted EPS at $0.13 [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The self-storage segment saw a revenue decline of 23.1%, attributed to reduced volume due to economic uncertainty [8][13] - New construction revenues decreased by 25.5%, primarily due to project delays linked to high interest rates [13] - The R3 segment experienced a revenue increase of 19.3%, although retail big box conversions and facility expansions were down nearly 50% [13][15] - The international segment's revenues increased by $6.5 million or 44.2% compared to the prior year, benefiting from normalizing market conditions [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted ongoing macroeconomic volatility impacting customer liquidity and capital deployment [6][9] - The backlog and pipeline showed growth despite market uncertainty, indicating stability in demand for self-storage solutions [7][20] - Tariff impacts are expected to be low single-digit millions for 2025, with potential ongoing annual impacts estimated at $10 million to $12 million beyond 2025 [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational excellence and disciplined capital allocation while investing for long-term success [6][7] - A cost reduction plan is in place, expected to yield annual pre-tax savings of approximately $10 million to $12 million by the end of 2025 [10][15] - The company anticipates a shift in customer focus towards optimizing and upgrading existing properties rather than new construction [18][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term fundamentals of the self-storage industry, citing strong underlying demand drivers [12][20] - The company expects results to strengthen in the latter half of 2025, with an increase in R3 project activity [18][19] - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by high interest rates but noted that project timelines are beginning to normalize [26][49] Other Important Information - The company generated cash from operating activities of $48.3 million and free cash flow of $41.9 million in the quarter, representing a free cash flow conversion of 170% of adjusted net income [16][17] - The company repurchased 600,000 shares for $5.1 million during the quarter, with $16.3 million remaining on its share repurchase authorization [17][18] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the latest on project delays and order activity in the pipeline? - Management noted that projects are moving through the pipeline, with steady growth in both orders and backlog since the beginning of the year [26][28] Question: How is pricing being affected by tariffs and steel inflation? - Management indicated that pricing impacts are expected to blend into the year, with Q1 not as affected due to existing inventory [29][30] Question: What is the expected cadence of cost savings from structural reductions? - Management expects to reach a full run rate for cost savings by the end of Q2, with various initiatives in place to drive these savings [53][54] Question: How is the R3 segment performing and what are the expectations for retail conversions? - Management observed an increase in R3 project activity and expects steady state performance in retail conversions moving forward [40][41] Question: Are there signs of stabilization in the commercial segment? - Management confirmed stabilization in the commercial segment, with growth in certain product lines, although the commercial sheet door sector remains depressed [47]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Orders increased by nearly 22% in the quarter, resulting in a record backlog of $932 million [15] - Sales grew by 6.6% in the quarter, with all three segments contributing to the increase [15] - Adjusted EBIT margins were at 18%, with incremental margins on sales growth at 56%, leading to adjusted earnings per share of $1.35, a 24% increase year-over-year [15][21] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - **Aerospace and Defense**: Orders were up 5% with nearly 8% sales growth, driven by commercial aerospace and Navy orders. Adjusted EBIT margins increased by 400 basis points, with EBIT dollars up 28% due to favorable pricing and mix [16][18] - **Utility Solutions Group**: Orders grew nearly 17%, with sales up 4%. Doble experienced 5% sales growth, while NRG's sales were flat. Adjusted EBIT margins improved to 23%, up 290 basis points year-over-year [17][19] - **Test Business**: Orders surged by 75% compared to last year, with sales up 9%. Margins improved to 12.4%, benefiting from volume leverage and price increases [19][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The aerospace market shows fundamental demand for additional commercial and defense aircraft, with expectations for continued growth despite recent moderation in order rates [8][9] - The utility market is experiencing a favorable business cycle, driven by increased electricity demand and aging infrastructure [11][12] - The test business is recovering, with strong activity in EMC testing, healthcare, and industrial markets [13][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company completed a major acquisition of SMMP, rebranding it as ESCO Maritime Solutions, which is expected to enhance margin and growth profiles [10][24] - The strategic planning process indicates a focus on delivering above-market growth by assessing end markets and strategies [6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks, highlighting strong underlying business conditions [4][5] - The long-term outlook for aerospace and defense remains positive, with expectations for continued growth despite short-term challenges [7][9] - The company anticipates growth in the utility sector due to increasing electricity demand and the importance of renewable technologies [12] Other Important Information - The company expects sales growth of 6% to 8% for the year, with adjusted earnings per share guidance increased to a range of $5.65 to $5.85 [23][24] - The acquisition is projected to contribute adjusted earnings per share in the range of $0.20 to $0.30 [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on the sale of VACCO - Management indicated ongoing interest in the sale process, with a decision expected by May [28] Question: Performance of the underlying business - The business has stabilized with improved performance compared to last year, although margins remain lower than other segments [30] Question: Clarification on tariff impacts - The estimated tariff impact of $2 million to $4 million is a net number, factoring in mitigation efforts [32][34] Question: Cash generation from Maritime Solutions - Management expects strong cash flow benefits from the Maritime acquisition, with ongoing assessments as integration progresses [40] Question: Thoughts on the 2025 and 2026 budget for shipbuilding - Management is optimistic about the shipbuilding budget, noting strong visibility and progress in programs [42][43] Question: Commercial aircraft orders moderation - Management noted a slight moderation in orders due to inventory management but remains confident in future growth [68] Question: Status of Department of Defense programs - Programs related to submarines and Navy initiatives are prioritized, with a positive order flow expected [70]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales for the second quarter were $834 million, a decrease of 7% compared to the prior year [16] - Gross profit was $273 million, down 2%, but gross margin expanded by 180 basis points to 32.8% [16] - Non-GAAP net income totaled $68 million, an increase of 3%, with non-GAAP EPS of $1.04, up $0.05 [19] - GAAP earnings per share rose by $0.05 to $0.98 [19] - Adjusted EBITDA was $123 million, $1 million below the prior year quarter [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes Pet Segment - Pet net sales totaled $454 million, a decrease of 6% [20] - E-commerce sales represented 27% of Pet sales, up from the prior year [21] - Non-GAAP operating income for Pet reached $66 million, up 5%, with a non-GAAP operating margin of 14.5%, an increase of 150 basis points [21] Garden Segment - Garden net sales totaled $380 million, a 10% decrease [22] - E-commerce sales in the Garden segment delivered double-digit growth, particularly in Wild Bird and Grass Seed categories [23] - GAAP operating income for Garden was $59 million, up $2 million, with a GAAP operating margin of 15.5%, an increase of 190 basis points [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The earlier timing of customer orders and promotional events shifted sales into the first quarter, impacting both segments [6][22] - POS trends in the Garden segment were down low single digits, reflecting the delayed start to the garden selling season [22] - The Wild Bird business achieved record sales, benefiting from extended cold weather [8][50] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on streamlining operations through footprint consolidation, portfolio refinement, and cost structure improvements [5][12] - The M&A strategy aims to identify high-growth consumable companies with accretive margins [26] - Continued investment in e-commerce, digital technology, and innovation is prioritized [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the outlook for the year despite navigating a challenging environment in the second half [5][14] - Anticipated increased consumer caution and a more promotional retail environment due to macroeconomic uncertainties [14] - The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 guidance for non-GAAP EPS of $2.2 or higher [26] Other Important Information - The company has completed significant inventory reductions of $90 million across both segments [24] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the second quarter were $517 million, an increase of $215 million [25] - The company repurchased approximately 1.2 million shares for $41 million during the quarter [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about Pet trends, particularly durables versus consumables? - Management noted a 6% decline in net sales due to earlier customer orders and SKU rationalization efforts [29][30] - Consumables were up low to mid-single digits, while durables were down double digits [31] Question: How are tariffs impacting your business? - Management indicated that tariffs affect about 13% of total import costs, primarily from China [34] - Plans are in place for vendor concessions and pricing adjustments to mitigate tariff impacts [35] Question: What are you seeing in the Garden segment regarding the spring selling season? - Management acknowledged a delayed season but noted improved consumption as weather conditions became favorable [46][64] Question: Are you seeing trade down to private label products? - Management confirmed some trade down to private label, particularly in the Wild Bird business [68][71] Question: How is the M&A environment being impacted by tariffs? - Management noted that M&A activity is low, with a disconnect between bid-ask spreads due to current market conditions [79][80]