Economic Impact - Consumer spending during the Thanksgiving holiday increased by 7% this year, with the average spender spending $337 compared to $315 last year [2][3] - The GDP growth exceeded expectations, reported to be higher than 4%, indicating continued consumer spending [7] Tariff Discussion - Claims that President Trump's tariffs are causing price hikes lack evidence, with reports indicating that tariffs are not significantly impacting prices [8] - Senator Elizabeth Warren's assertions regarding tariffs and their effects on consumer prices are challenged, suggesting that the narrative around tariffs has been exaggerated by media and political opponents [8] Consumer Behavior - Starbucks is projected to sell $60 million worth of gift cards on Christmas Eve, with one in five Americans expected to receive a Starbucks gift card [10] - There is an expectation that consumer spending will continue to rise, particularly with tax refunds anticipated to start in January [13]

Curtiss-Wright Corporation (NYSE:CW) is among the 7 Best Defense Dividend Stocks to Buy. On December 16, Stifel cut its price target on the stock to $584 from $587, while maintaining a Hold rating on the shares. Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) a Moderate Buy, Per Wall Street Analysts Stock market data showing an upward trajectory. Photo by Burak The Weekender on Pexels In a research note to investors, the analyst said that despite flat or lower volumes in 2025, diversified industrial companies registere ...

The road ahead for this bull market. Let's welcome in our panel for some answers. Trivariat's Adam Parker, New Edge Wealth's Cameron Dawson, and Requisite Capitals Bin Talkington.Both Adam and Bin are CNBC contributors. It's great to have everybody with us. As I said, Bin, we are heading for another record close on the S&P 500.How do you feel about things as this end of year approaches. We're going to put another great year in for stocks and we look ahead to a new one. Yeah, I mean who would have thought ba ...

HASSETT, WHO MADE THOSE COMMENTS OVER THE WEEKEND. HE ALSO REITERATED TO CNBC THIS MORNING THAT THE CONSUMER IS STAYING RESILIENT BECAUSE AMERICANS ARE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT INCOME GROWTH IN THE YEAR AHEAD. BUT MY NEXT GUEST SAYS THERE'S A BIG RISK ON THE HORIZON AND ONE THAT WILL COME BEFORE THOSE TAX REFUNDS HIT.JOINING US TO DISCUSS IS TD COWEN'S CHRIS KRUEGER. CHRIS, IT'S GOOD TO SEE YOU. AND YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT THE OBAMACARE SUBSIDIES, RIGHT.>> GREAT TO SEE YOU AS WELL. THAT'S CORRECT. THEY'RE GOING TO EXP ...

Economic Overview - The Conference Board's consumer confidence index has declined for the fifth consecutive month, indicating a negative trend in consumer sentiment [2] - The index consists of two components: the present situation and the expectations index, with the latter showing a significant shift as consumers now express concerns about future economic conditions [2][3] Consumer Confidence Insights - For the first time this year, the expectations index has flipped, with consumers feeling that their current situation is good but anticipating a decline in the future [3] - Consumer confidence varies significantly by income level; those earning below $125,000 annually reported a decrease in confidence, while those above this threshold experienced an increase [4] Economic Disparities - There are two distinct economic experiences: high-income consumers are driving spending, while lower-income consumers are feeling the strain [4][5] - The current economic landscape is characterized by rising food prices despite decreasing gas prices, leading to consumer disappointment regarding inflation expectations [6] Small Business Challenges - Small businesses, which often operate on personal credit, are facing significant challenges, contrasting with larger businesses that are performing well [8] - The burden of tariffs is highlighted as a regressive tax impacting lower-income Americans and small businesses, suggesting a need for potential policy adjustments [7][9] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, particularly in the service sector, which is unusual for a traditionally manufacturing-driven economy [11] - Despite the weakening labor market, productivity in the service sector is contributing positively to economic indicators, indicating a shift in economic structure [11]

Consumer Confidence & Economic Outlook - The Conference Board's consumer confidence index has declined for the fifth consecutive month, signaling potential economic concerns [2] - Consumer confidence is diverging based on income levels, with those below $125,000 annually showing decreased confidence, while those above that level show increased confidence, indicating a K-shaped economic recovery [3][4] - Expectations for the future (expectation index) appear to have bottomed out, with consumers starting to feel the impact of current economic conditions [3] Inflation & Pricing - Consumers express concern that prices, particularly food prices, are not decreasing as expected, despite discussions of inflation coming down [6] - Tariffs are considered a regressive tax, impacting lower-income Americans and are reflected in prices [7] Small Business & Economic Sectors - Small businesses are facing challenges, with owners often relying on personal credit, while large businesses are performing well, highlighting a disparity between Main Street and larger corporations [8] - The current economy is service-driven, showing productivity gains in the service sector despite a weakening labor market, differing from past manufacturing-driven economies [11] Potential Economic Drivers - Larger tax refunds and potential increases in Obamacare health premiums could influence consumer spending in the near future [4] - Decreasing gas prices are providing some relief to consumers, while rising food prices continue to be a concern [5]

Everyone told you tariffs were going to create the next Great Depression.They told you that shelves would be empty and the economy would crater.Instead, we have GDP over 4% and inflation sitting near 2%.The Economic Golden Age has arrived. ...

At the same time, Fed governor Adriana Kugler stepped down during the summer, leading the president to appoint White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Stephen Miran to serve out the remaining five months in her term. Miran did not step down from his position at the White House, only taking a leave of absence. It's a move that many Fed watchers worried would compromise Fed independence — and one that Miran himself had previously warned about prior to his position in the administration.The Fed’s holdin ...

For more on what this all means for the markets, let's bring in UBS Global Wealth Senior Portfolio Manager, Alan Rex Shaffen. Alan, thank you for being here. Um, what do you make of Kevin Hassid's comments there.>> You know, I I think it's Leslie, thank you for having me on, Carl. Thank you. Um, what you saw in 2025 was a period of fog and uncertainty.And I think what you heard from from Kevin Hasset and what you're seeing in the administration that 2026 is going to be a time of clarity, of normalization, a ...

Tax Policy Changes - The child tax credit received a $200 boost to the maximum amount for the 2025 tax year [2] - Individuals with tipped income can deduct that on their tax return, effective for 2025 [3] - A new $6,000 deduction per senior is available, subject to income thresholds [5][6] Impact of Tariffs - In 2025, tariffs amount to an estimated $1,100 burden per US household on average [7][8] - If tariffs remain in effect, the burden is projected to grow to about $1,400 per household next year [8] - Customs duties on Christmas lights alone have risen to $45 million this year [9] - Tariffs on holiday items have climbed to upwards of $500 million through the first 9 months of 2025 [11] - Toys and board games are subject to tariffs, increasing their cost [13][15] Offsetting Factors - Tax cuts passed by Congress last year will result in larger refunds [16] - The Treasury Department will adjust withholding tables for lower taxes from each paycheck [16] - Tax cuts in aggregate have a larger revenue impact than the tariff hikes [17]