Treasury Secretary is joining us now. Uh Scott Besson, we we worked on that that segue. Uh Mr.. Treasury Secretary, I hope you liked it. How are you. Good good to see you.>> Good morning, Joe. Good to see you. >> You uh let's talk tariffs and and and uh since it's front and center for everyone with with this beginning now at at Scotas, you have said you're going and um you want to be in the front row.I think you're I think your chances are good if you say that's where you'd like to sit. Uh, look, Joe, I I t ...

Group 1 - The discussion revolves around the potential impact of the Supreme Court's decisions on the president's policies, particularly regarding tariffs and negotiation authority [1][2] - The importance of maintaining a robust manufacturing ecosystem in the US and globally is emphasized, especially in light of threats to shutdowns [2] - The administration's stance on advanced AI chips, particularly Nvidia's Blackwell chips, is debated, with concerns about China gaining access to these technologies [3][4] Group 2 - The rapid evolution of technology, particularly in the semiconductor industry, is highlighted, with Blackwell chips potentially becoming less effective in the near future [4][5] - China's long-term strategy regarding rare earth materials is discussed, indicating that this has been a planned effort for decades rather than a reaction to recent events [6] - The relationship between the US and China is described as improving, with upcoming state visits and meetings planned, suggesting a more stable diplomatic environment [7][8]

Financial Performance - Sales decreased to $809 million in Q3 2025, a 13% decrease compared to $935 million in Q3 2024[16] - Adjusted EBITDA decreased to $44 million in Q3 2025, a 46% decrease compared to $82 million in Q3 2024[16] - Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased to 5.5% in Q3 2025, a 320 bps decrease compared to 8.7% in Q3 2024[16] - Net cash used in operating activities was $(38) million in Q3 2025, compared to $78 million provided by operating activities in Q3 2024[45] - Free cash flow was $(142) million in Q3 2025, compared to $(40) million in Q3 2024[45] Revenue Analysis - Core revenue decreased by 10% due to lower volume/mix[16] - The Q3 2025 revenue bridge shows a decrease of $102 million due to volume/mix and a decrease of $44 million due to the Court-Ordered Towanda Divestiture[18] - Year-to-date core revenue is down 13%[50] Regional Performance - North America net revenue decreased to $546 million in Q3 2025, compared to $678 million in Q3 2024, a 13% decrease[23] - North America Adjusted EBITDA decreased to $38 million in Q3 2025, compared to $75 million in Q3 2024[23] - Europe net revenue increased to $263 million in Q3 2025, compared to $257 million in Q3 2024, a 2% increase[23] Outlook and Guidance - The company updated its 2025 guidance, projecting net revenue of $3.1 billion to $3.2 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $105 million to $120 million[32] - The company expects a high single-digit volume decline in North America and a mid single-digit volume decline in Europe[30]

All right. I think the question is, do you think the prediction markets are getting this right. There's about a 40% chance or so of the president uh having a ruling in his favor.>> Yeah. You know, I think this case is a close calling. It's going to be a fascinating day tomorrow.Um I think the I think the markets the the prediction markets are underestimating the chances that the Trump administration wins. It's clearly not 100%. I wouldn't go there, but I think it's above that 5050 mark and they have it real ...

All right. I think the question is, do you think the prediction markets are getting this right. There's about a 40% chance or so of the president uh having a ruling in his favor.>> Yeah. You know, I think this case is a close calling. It's going to be a fascinating day tomorrow.Um I think the I think the markets the the prediction markets are underestimating the chances that the Trump administration wins. It's clearly not 100%. I wouldn't go there, but I think it's above that 5050 mark and they have it real ...

Core Viewpoint - The prediction markets are currently underestimating the likelihood of the Trump administration winning a court ruling regarding tariffs, with estimates around 40% while some believe it is above 50% [2]. Group 1: Tariff Implications - The administration has alternative trade laws to implement tariffs if the court ruling is unfavorable, although these alternatives have limitations [3]. - The outcome of the court case may not significantly impact current tariffs but could influence future administrations' use of the AIPA [5]. - Business leaders express a preference for maintaining existing tariffs for planning certainty, as a ruling against them could lead to uncertainty and alternative tactics from the administration [7]. Group 2: Business Adaptation - Larger companies have adapted to tariffs by restructuring supply chains, while smaller niche companies may struggle and face potential bankruptcy [9]. - The impact of tariffs is not uniform across the industry; larger firms may find ways to manage, while smaller firms could face dire consequences [10].

All right. I think the question is, do you think the prediction markets are getting this right. There's about a 40% chance or so of the president uh having a ruling in his favor.>> Yeah. You know, I think this case is a close calling. It's going to be a fascinating day tomorrow.Um I think the I think the markets the the prediction markets are underestimating the chances that the Trump administration wins. It's clearly not 100%. I wouldn't go there, but I think it's above that 5050 mark and they have it real ...

Core Insights - Corporate earnings are increasingly significant in the absence of key government data, serving as a guide for investors amid trade battles, inflation, and a weakening labor market [1] - Despite a generally positive earnings season, there is an underlying concern regarding consumer affordability issues that persist from the previous season [2] Earnings Performance - As of last week, 81% of S&P 500 companies exceeded EPS consensus, while 76% surpassed sales expectations, although both metrics have slightly declined from previous updates [3] - EPS beats are marginally above last quarter's levels, but sales beats are tracking slightly below the prior season [3] Market Sentiment - Analysts believe earnings are providing a solid foundation for the US equity market, but sentiment is lower compared to the last reporting season, indicating that the peak of the earnings story may have passed [4] Sector Insights - The tech sector reported strength in AI and mobile, while consumer companies expressed concerns about current market conditions [6] - Tariffs emerged as a significant theme, with companies noting early shopper purchases to avoid levies and ongoing hesitancy in decision-making due to tariff-related uncertainties [7] Consumer Behavior - Consumer-related companies reported a price-sensitive and value-conscious consumer base, with Kimberly-Clark executives indicating no immediate relief for consumer pressures [8][10] - Other companies highlighted deteriorating consumer sentiment, citing challenges in housing affordability, reduced travel stays, lower demand for vehicle repairs, and dining pressures among low- to middle-income customers [10]

Core Insights - The toy category is experiencing a resurgence in Q3 2025, with a 14% year-over-year increase in licensed toys, driven by various themes including video games and sports [3][4] - The U.S. consumer's response to tariffs will significantly influence Q4 performance, with the toy industry showing resilience due to emotional connections and trends like adult self-gifting [4] - The U.S. toy market saw a 7% increase in dollar sales from January to September, indicating a return to growth after two stagnant years, primarily fueled by collectibles [7] Industry Trends - Seven out of eleven toy categories tracked by Circana reported dollar growth, with six categories showing unit growth [3] - Collectibles are a major driver of toy sales, with a notable 33% increase compared to the previous year, particularly in trading card games and action figures [7] - The toy industry benefits from trends such as nostalgia and digital wellness, which are expected to influence holiday purchases [4] Company Developments - Mattel projected its tariff exposure to be below $100 million but warned that the full impact may be felt in Q4 [5] - Toys R Us is planning to open over 30 new flagship and seasonal stores to compete for consumer spending during the holiday season [6]

Core Viewpoint - Stanley Black & Decker reported a decline in third-quarter profit and revised its full-year outlook downward due to the impact of tariffs and reduced consumer spending on do-it-yourself projects [1] Financial Performance - The company experienced lower profit in the third quarter, indicating challenges in its financial performance [1] - The full-year outlook has been cut, reflecting ongoing difficulties in the business environment [1] Market Conditions - Tariffs have negatively affected the company's operations, contributing to the decline in profitability [1] - Weak consumer spending on do-it-yourself projects has further pressured the company's business performance [1]