Group 1 - The document does not contain any relevant information regarding companies or industries [2][3][5][6]

分组1 - The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate three times in 2025, while inflation remains elevated at 5% despite cooling from its 2022 peak [1] - Jamie Dimon expressed concerns about political interference in the Fed's operations, emphasizing the importance of the central bank's independence [2][4] - The Department of Justice has initiated a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which could lead to charges related to his congressional testimony [3] 分组2 - Inflation has significantly impacted purchasing power, with the U.S. consumer price index increasing by 26% since 2020 [6] - Gold prices have surged over 60% in the past year, with Dimon predicting that gold could reach $10,000 an ounce in the current economic environment [8] - Real estate has also proven to be a strong hedge against inflation, with the S&P Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rising by 43% over the past five years [11] 分组3 - Alternative assets, including art, are gaining attention as they provide diversification and have shown low correlation with traditional assets since 1995 [18] - Platforms like Masterworks are making investments in blue-chip artwork accessible to a broader audience, allowing investors to buy shares in high-value art pieces [20]

Core Insights - Alaska Air Group (ALK) is set to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 22, 2026, after market close, with earnings per share (EPS) estimates revised down by 64.5% to 11 cents, indicating an 88.7% decline year-over-year [2][10] - The revenue estimate for the same quarter is projected at $3.64 billion, reflecting a 3.1% year-over-year growth [2][10] Financial Performance - ALK has a history of earnings surprises, outperforming the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters, with an average beat of 27.03% [3] - The third-quarter 2025 earnings were reported at $1.05 per share, missing the consensus estimate of $1.11 per share and showing a year-over-year decline of 53.3% [8] Revenue Drivers - The anticipated performance for the upcoming quarter is expected to be supported by increased total revenues, primarily driven by high passenger revenues as domestic air travel demand stabilizes [4] - Passenger revenues are projected to increase by 14.7% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, bolstered by strong passenger volumes during the Thanksgiving holiday [5][10] - Cargo and other revenues are estimated at $146.6 million, indicating an 11.1% growth from the previous year [5] Challenges - Geopolitical uncertainties, tariff-related pressures, and persistent inflation are likely to have negatively impacted ALK's operations, causing volatility in passenger traffic and limiting revenue growth [6] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for ALK, with an Earnings ESP of -6.04% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7]

From grocery stores to healthcare facilities and automotive plants, rising prices and affordability are top of mind for millions of Americans right now. Some of them are Federal Reserve officials whose jobs actually require them to keep inflation in check for the rest of us. Several Fed regional presidents said Jan. 15 that ongoing inflation pressures are prompting them to pause interest-rate cuts, explaining that a cooling labor market appears to be stabilizing. “The most important thing facing us is w ...

New York Fed says inflation and import prices are overstated. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve should be prepared to cut interest rates further due to "signs of fragility" in the job market, as indicated by Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman [1] Labor Market Conditions - There are indications of a weakening job market, with a recent drop in job openings and softness in hiring potentially leading to a rise in unemployment [1][2] - Private-sector job gains averaged only about 30,000 per month in the fourth quarter, which is insufficient to prevent an increase in the unemployment rate [3] - The majority of job gains have been in the healthcare and social services sectors, suggesting a gradual softening in hiring since early last year [3] Interest Rate Policy - The central bank should proactively set interest rates based on forecasts rather than relying heavily on recent data, which may lead to being behind the curve [4] - Bowman's views contrast with other Fed officials who do not see the necessity for further "insurance" cuts to protect the job market [4] Inflation Outlook - The Fed's preferred inflation index, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index on a core basis, was estimated at 2.9% in December, with adjustments for tariffs suggesting it could be closer to the 2% target [5] - The economy is expected to continue expanding at a solid pace, with the labor market stabilizing near full employment as interest rates become less restrictive [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest-rate policy remains "moderately restrictive" even after three quarter-point rate cuts in late 2025, indicating a continued effort to combat inflation and support economic growth [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has implemented three quarter-point rate cuts in late 2025 [1] - Despite the rate cuts, the Fed's policy is still leaning against inflation [1] - The current interest-rate setting is characterized as "moderately restrictive" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve should be prepared to cut interest rates again due to a fragile job market that could deteriorate quickly [1][3]. Group 1: Labor Market Conditions - The job market is currently near full employment but has become increasingly fragile, with potential for further deterioration in the coming months [3]. - Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman emphasized the need for the Fed to remain nimble in its policy approach due to the rapidly changing job market conditions [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Stance - Bowman's current assessment of monetary policy is that it is "moderately restrictive," and she advocates for a forward-looking approach in setting interest rates [4]. - The Fed's monetary policy is not on a preset course, and there is a need to avoid signaling a pause in rate cuts without clear evidence of changing conditions [2]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The baseline expectation is for economic activity to continue expanding at a solid pace, with the labor market stabilizing near full employment as monetary policy becomes less restrictive [2]. - Risks to the Fed's inflation and job mandates are uneven, with expectations that price pressures will moderate as the impact of trade tariffs diminishes [2]. Group 4: Recent Actions and Future Expectations - In late 2025, the Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to the 3.50%-3.75% range to support a weakening job market while still addressing high inflation pressures [6]. - Fed officials have indicated no urgency to act at the start of 2026, as they seek further evidence that inflation, which remains above the 2% target, will decrease [7].

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to implement a rate cut in January, having indicated only one potential cut in its last meeting, but investors are hopeful for more cuts following recent economic data showing easing inflation in late 2025 [1][7] - High inflation has been a significant challenge for the Federal Reserve, compounded by a shrinking labor market raising concerns about economic weakness; however, recent data indicates that inflation eased in November while the labor market remains stable [2][4] Inflation Data - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% in November, lower than the expected 0.3% increase; year-over-year, CPI climbed 2.7%, below the forecast of 3.1% [4] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, also increased by 0.2% sequentially and 2.6% year-over-year, both figures beating consensus estimates of 0.3% and 2.8% respectively [5] - Food prices increased by 2.6% year-over-year, while shelter costs, which make up one-third of the CPI, rose by 3%; however, shelter costs have eased recently, suggesting inflation may be on track to meet the Fed's 2% target [6] Consumer Discretionary Stocks - Four consumer discretionary stocks are recommended for purchase: Amer Sports, Inc. (AS), Cimpress plc (CMPR), Planet Fitness, Inc. (PLNT), and Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) due to positive earnings estimate revisions and favorable market conditions [2][10] - Amer Sports, Inc. has an expected earnings growth rate of 97.9% for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate improvement of 10.7% over the last 60 days, currently holding a Zacks Rank 1 [8] - Cimpress plc is expected to see over 100% earnings growth this year, with an 8.3% improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the past 60 days, currently holding a Zacks Rank 2 [11] - Planet Fitness, Inc. has an expected earnings growth rate of 16.2% for the current year, with a 0.7% improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the last 60 days, currently holding a Zacks Rank 2 [12][13] - Airbnb, Inc. has an expected earnings growth rate of 1.2% for the current year, with a 0.2% improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the last 60 days, currently holding a Zacks Rank 2 [14]

Core Insights - The primary concern for baby boomers entering retirement is longevity risk, which poses a threat of outliving their savings due to increased life expectancy [2] - Rising healthcare and long-term care costs are significant financial threats that can deplete savings if not planned for adequately [3] - Inflation is eroding purchasing power, particularly affecting those on fixed incomes, with the U.S. dollar declining approximately 60% when priced in gold this year [5] - Market volatility presents a unique challenge for boomers, as they have less time to recover from downturns, exposing them to sequence of returns risk [6] Group 1: Longevity and Financial Planning - Longevity risk is identified as the most significant threat, with many retirees facing 25 to 30 years of retirement, necessitating a long-term financial strategy [2] - Retirement planning must account for the need for income over extended periods, emphasizing endurance rather than short-term gains [3] Group 2: Healthcare Costs - Healthcare is described as a "silent budget killer," with long-term care being a critical financial risk that many fail to prepare for [3] - Approximately 70% of individuals over 65 will require long-term care, yet less than 10% have insurance for it, highlighting a significant gap in preparedness [3] Group 3: Inflation and Market Volatility - Inflation is compared to "termites" that gradually erode purchasing power, with even moderate inflation posing a risk to fixed incomes [5] - Market volatility impacts boomers more severely than other generations due to their limited recovery time from market downturns [6]