Group 1 - The average US gas price has fallen to $2.79 per gallon, the lowest since March 2021, leading to an expected savings of $11 billion for American households in 2026 compared to 2025 [3] - The US stock market indices, including the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq, ended the week down about 1%, yet remain near all-time highs, indicating resilience despite uncertainties [8] - The value of US households' stock portfolios increased by $5.5 trillion in Q2 2025, while real estate holdings rose by $300 billion, contributing to a total net worth increase from $176 trillion to $182 trillion [26] Group 2 - Credit card lending has become more profitable, with JPMorgan reporting a net yield of 9.7% on over $200 billion in card loans, while a proposed 10% cap on credit card expenses is facing resistance from card issuers [12][14] - The median US home price is now $410,800, with nearly 60% of millennials planning to spend less than $400,000 on a home, and 44% willing to allocate over half their income to housing [16] - Mortgage rates have dropped below 6% for the first time in three years due to government intervention, which may artificially support the housing market rather than improve long-term affordability [20]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations are facing uncertainty as the blackout period begins, with the upcoming FOMC meeting on January 28 being crucial for market recalibration [1] - Recent labor reports indicate a surge in layoffs to 1.2 million in 2025, yet the unemployment rate has decreased, and unemployment claims have been surprisingly low [2] - Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, suggesting that Chairman Powell is unlikely to cut rates this month, impacting potential borrowers [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve operates under a dual mandate that often leads to conflicting goals, where raising rates can lower inflation but increase unemployment, and vice versa [5] - This dynamic was evident last year when Powell faced criticism for not lowering rates sooner to stimulate the economy amid external pressures [6] - Recent comments from Fed officials indicate a moderately restrictive policy stance, with inflation pressures easing and concerns about potential labor market weakening [8]

Group 1 - The document does not contain any relevant information regarding companies or industries [2][3][5][6]

分组1 - The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate three times in 2025, while inflation remains elevated at 5% despite cooling from its 2022 peak [1] - Jamie Dimon expressed concerns about political interference in the Fed's operations, emphasizing the importance of the central bank's independence [2][4] - The Department of Justice has initiated a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which could lead to charges related to his congressional testimony [3] 分组2 - Inflation has significantly impacted purchasing power, with the U.S. consumer price index increasing by 26% since 2020 [6] - Gold prices have surged over 60% in the past year, with Dimon predicting that gold could reach $10,000 an ounce in the current economic environment [8] - Real estate has also proven to be a strong hedge against inflation, with the S&P Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rising by 43% over the past five years [11] 分组3 - Alternative assets, including art, are gaining attention as they provide diversification and have shown low correlation with traditional assets since 1995 [18] - Platforms like Masterworks are making investments in blue-chip artwork accessible to a broader audience, allowing investors to buy shares in high-value art pieces [20]

Core Insights - Alaska Air Group (ALK) is set to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 22, 2026, after market close, with earnings per share (EPS) estimates revised down by 64.5% to 11 cents, indicating an 88.7% decline year-over-year [2][10] - The revenue estimate for the same quarter is projected at $3.64 billion, reflecting a 3.1% year-over-year growth [2][10] Financial Performance - ALK has a history of earnings surprises, outperforming the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters, with an average beat of 27.03% [3] - The third-quarter 2025 earnings were reported at $1.05 per share, missing the consensus estimate of $1.11 per share and showing a year-over-year decline of 53.3% [8] Revenue Drivers - The anticipated performance for the upcoming quarter is expected to be supported by increased total revenues, primarily driven by high passenger revenues as domestic air travel demand stabilizes [4] - Passenger revenues are projected to increase by 14.7% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, bolstered by strong passenger volumes during the Thanksgiving holiday [5][10] - Cargo and other revenues are estimated at $146.6 million, indicating an 11.1% growth from the previous year [5] Challenges - Geopolitical uncertainties, tariff-related pressures, and persistent inflation are likely to have negatively impacted ALK's operations, causing volatility in passenger traffic and limiting revenue growth [6] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for ALK, with an Earnings ESP of -6.04% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7]

From grocery stores to healthcare facilities and automotive plants, rising prices and affordability are top of mind for millions of Americans right now. Some of them are Federal Reserve officials whose jobs actually require them to keep inflation in check for the rest of us. Several Fed regional presidents said Jan. 15 that ongoing inflation pressures are prompting them to pause interest-rate cuts, explaining that a cooling labor market appears to be stabilizing. “The most important thing facing us is w ...

New York Fed says inflation and import prices are overstated. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve should be prepared to cut interest rates further due to "signs of fragility" in the job market, as indicated by Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman [1] Labor Market Conditions - There are indications of a weakening job market, with a recent drop in job openings and softness in hiring potentially leading to a rise in unemployment [1][2] - Private-sector job gains averaged only about 30,000 per month in the fourth quarter, which is insufficient to prevent an increase in the unemployment rate [3] - The majority of job gains have been in the healthcare and social services sectors, suggesting a gradual softening in hiring since early last year [3] Interest Rate Policy - The central bank should proactively set interest rates based on forecasts rather than relying heavily on recent data, which may lead to being behind the curve [4] - Bowman's views contrast with other Fed officials who do not see the necessity for further "insurance" cuts to protect the job market [4] Inflation Outlook - The Fed's preferred inflation index, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index on a core basis, was estimated at 2.9% in December, with adjustments for tariffs suggesting it could be closer to the 2% target [5] - The economy is expected to continue expanding at a solid pace, with the labor market stabilizing near full employment as interest rates become less restrictive [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest-rate policy remains "moderately restrictive" even after three quarter-point rate cuts in late 2025, indicating a continued effort to combat inflation and support economic growth [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has implemented three quarter-point rate cuts in late 2025 [1] - Despite the rate cuts, the Fed's policy is still leaning against inflation [1] - The current interest-rate setting is characterized as "moderately restrictive" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve should be prepared to cut interest rates again due to a fragile job market that could deteriorate quickly [1][3]. Group 1: Labor Market Conditions - The job market is currently near full employment but has become increasingly fragile, with potential for further deterioration in the coming months [3]. - Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman emphasized the need for the Fed to remain nimble in its policy approach due to the rapidly changing job market conditions [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Stance - Bowman's current assessment of monetary policy is that it is "moderately restrictive," and she advocates for a forward-looking approach in setting interest rates [4]. - The Fed's monetary policy is not on a preset course, and there is a need to avoid signaling a pause in rate cuts without clear evidence of changing conditions [2]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The baseline expectation is for economic activity to continue expanding at a solid pace, with the labor market stabilizing near full employment as monetary policy becomes less restrictive [2]. - Risks to the Fed's inflation and job mandates are uneven, with expectations that price pressures will moderate as the impact of trade tariffs diminishes [2]. Group 4: Recent Actions and Future Expectations - In late 2025, the Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to the 3.50%-3.75% range to support a weakening job market while still addressing high inflation pressures [6]. - Fed officials have indicated no urgency to act at the start of 2026, as they seek further evidence that inflation, which remains above the 2% target, will decrease [7].