1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures continued to fluctuate and consolidate. The central bank announced that the LPR quotes in March remained unchanged, which is the tenth consecutive month of stability since the interest rate cut in May last year. This indicates that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short - term is low as macro - economic indicators are resilient and the policy is more inclined to structural easing. With the continuous escalation of the Middle East geopolitical crisis, the risk of global energy supply shortage and the risk of supply chain disruption of key raw materials are rising, increasing the risk of global macro - economic weakness. Considering the existing problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, the future monetary and credit environment will be loose and the possibility of interest rate hikes is low. Overall, Treasury bond futures face both upward pressure and downward support, and will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Industry News - On March 20, the central bank conducted 20.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, a bid volume of 20.5 billion yuan, and a winning bid volume of 20.5 billion yuan. Wind data shows that 37.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 17 billion yuan. The loan prime rate (LPR) announced on March 20, 2026, is 3.0% for the 1 - year LPR and 3.5% for the over - 5 - year LPR, which has remained stable for ten consecutive months since the 10bp cut in May 2025 [6] 3.2 Relevant Charts - The report includes charts such as the trends of TL2606, T2606, TF2606, TS2606, the Treasury bond yield - to - maturity curve, and the central bank's open - market operations, with data sources from Wind and the Baocheng Futures Research Institute [7][9][12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [60]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the 2026 policy environment will focus on stabilizing growth and capital replenishment, with a projected economic growth rate of 4.5% to 5% and a consumer price increase of around 2% [12][14]. - It is anticipated that the overall financing demand will experience a phase of recovery in 2026, supported by government debt financing and a slight improvement in corporate profits [17][22]. - The banking sector's performance is expected to remain stable in 2026, with net interest margins stabilizing at historically low levels and interest income showing signs of recovery [50][53]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Environment and Capital Replenishment - The report forecasts a slight decline in social financing and monetary growth in 2026, with a continuation of a supportive monetary policy stance [12][14]. - The government plans to issue special bonds worth 300 billion yuan to support the capital replenishment of large state-owned commercial banks, which is expected to enhance their core capital adequacy ratios [18][21]. 2. 2026 Banking Sector Performance Outlook - The overall scale growth of the banking sector is expected to slightly decline, with net interest margins stabilizing and interest income growth recovering [50][53]. - Non-interest income is projected to benefit from a rebound in wealth management-related businesses, while other non-interest income may experience volatility due to bond market influences [45][53]. 3. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the banking sector still holds allocation value, particularly in stable varieties and undervalued regional banks, given the current dividend yields and valuation levels [54][55]. - The market's high dividend style is expected to present phase opportunities, especially in the context of ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support [54][55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils has exceeded 3.1 million tons, indicating strong resilience in terminal demand. However, the international situation is volatile, and there are many uncertainties. It is recommended to consider long positions in the HC2605 contract above 3,250, while paying attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - As of the close on March 20, the futures price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3,297 (+2), and the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot - rolled coil was 3,300 (+0) (unit: yuan/ton/week) [7] - Hot - rolled coil production increased to 300.21 (+4.95) (year - on - year - 24.12) (unit: 10,000 tons) [7] - Apparent demand increased. The current period's apparent demand was 310.51 (+15.15) (year - on - year - 20.14) (unit: 10,000 tons) [7] - Both factory and social inventories decreased. The total inventory was 461.29 (-10.3) (year - on - year +51.39) (unit: 10,000 tons) [7] - The steel mill profitability rate was 42.42%, a week - on - week increase of 1.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.83 percentage points [7] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, Israel said it would "comply" with the "suspension" of subsequent air strikes on energy facilities proposed by US President Trump. The Fed maintained the interest rate between 3.5% - 3.75% for the second consecutive time in the March 2026 FOMC meeting, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts has significantly cooled. Domestically, the central bank deployed key tasks for this year, requiring the continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the comprehensive use of various monetary policy tools to maintain sufficient liquidity [9] - Cost aspect: The shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil increased, while the arrival volume decreased. The inventory at domestic ports has reached an inflection point. As the molten iron production increases, the iron ore inventory will continue to be digested. In addition, the shortage of high - grade powder and lump ore resources still supports the ore price. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal remains at a high level, the开工 of mines and coal washing plants continues to increase, the coking coal inventory declines, and geopolitical conflicts drive up oil prices and the energy sector [9] - Technical aspect: The HC2605 contract fluctuated strongly. The daily K - line ran above multiple moving averages, and the moving average combination was in a long arrangement. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA rebounded upwards, and the red bar shrank [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - This week, the HC2605 contract first rose and then回调. The HC2605 contract was stronger than the HC2610 contract. On the 20th, the price difference was - 6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton [15] - On March 20, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipt volume of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 526,395 tons, a week - on - week increase of 47,912 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the hot - rolled coil futures contract was 25,559 contracts, an increase of 18,750 contracts compared with the previous week [21] 3.2.2 Spot Price - On March 20, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3,313 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coils was weaker than the futures price. On the 20th, the basis was 3 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2 yuan/ton [27] 3.3 Upstream Market 3.3.1 Raw Material Prices - On March 20, the price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 840 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1,560 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [32] 3.3.2 Iron Ore Supply - From March 9 to March 15, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 30.488 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.51 billion tons. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 24.644 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.223 billion tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 23.17 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.805 billion tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 22.15 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.949 billion tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 12.302 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.343 billion tons [38] - As of March 20, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 178.1418 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3314 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3592 million tons, an increase of 0.0359 million tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore was 85.238 million tons, a decrease of 0.1798 million tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 54.9787 million tons, a decrease of 0.6613 million tons; the inventory of traded ore was 117.1468 million tons, a decrease of 1.381 million tons. On March 19, the inventory of steel billets in Tangshan, Hebei was 249,530 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,020 tons and a year - on - year increase of 145,090 tons [42] 3.3.3 Coking Industry - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants increased, and the coke inventory decreased. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises in China was 72.83%, an increase of 0.44%; the daily coke output was 507,600 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons; the coke inventory was 524,500 tons, a decrease of 39,800 tons; the total coking coal inventory was 8.4718 million tons, an increase of 322,500 tons; the available days of coking coal were 12.6 days, an increase of 0.41 days [46] 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - In January - February 2026, China's crude steel production was 160.34 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; the average daily crude steel production in January - February was 2.718 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.6%. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative steel exports were 15.591 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%. The cumulative steel imports were 0.827 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7% [50] - On March 20, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.78%, a week - on - week increase of 1.44 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.18 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.61 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.17 percentage points; the daily molten iron output was 2.2815 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0695 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0811 million tons. On March 19, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 3.0021 million tons, an increase of 0.0495 million tons compared with the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 0.2412 million tons [53] - On March 19, the in - factory inventory of hot - rolled coils of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 849,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,320 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 8,900 tons. The social inventory of 33 major cities was 3.7633 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 59,800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 522,800 tons. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 4.6129 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 103,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 513,900 tons [56] 3.4.2 Downstream Demand - In February 2026, automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2%. From January to February, automobile production and sales were 4.122 million and 4.152 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 9.5% and 8.8% [59] - From January to December 2025, the cumulative production of household air conditioners was 266.9749 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%; the production of household refrigerators was 109.2436 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%; the production of household washing machines was 125.1678 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4.8% [59]

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.3.20」 国债期货周报 通胀主导市场，利率长短分化 研究员 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号 F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证号 Z0020723 关 注 我 们 获取更多资讯 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 政策及监管：1、中美在法国巴黎举行经贸磋商，双方围绕关税安排、促进双边贸易投资、维护已有磋商共识等彼此关心的经贸议题，进行了坦 诚、深入、建设性的交流磋商，形成了一些新的共识，并将继续保持磋商。双方同意，研究建立促进双边贸易投资的合作机制；2、国家发改委 正会同相关部门组织开展国家层面标志性重大应用场景项目申报，项目将以清单形式向社会发布，符合条件的项目将在现有资金渠道中优先支 持。国家发改委将在全国确定100个左右具有引领带动作用的标志性场景项目，涉及打造多省联动清洁能源走廊场景、建设全空间无人体系场景 等；3、财政部表示，2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策，重点做好七方面工作：支持建设强大国内市场；支持加紧培育壮大新动能；加快高 水平科技自立自强；加大保障和改善民生力度；推动新型城镇化和区域协调发展；加快推进全面绿色 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged at 3.00% for the 1-year term and 3.50% for the 5-year term, marking ten consecutive months of stability since the last reduction in May 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The stability of the LPR is attributed to the unchanged policy interest rates and the historical low net interest margin of commercial banks, which is currently at 1.42% [1][2]. - The LPR's unchanged status aligns with market expectations, reflecting a cautious approach in monetary policy amid improving economic indicators such as exports and domestic consumption [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continues to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [6][7]. - The PBOC is utilizing various monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratios and reverse repos, to maintain liquidity and align social financing growth with economic growth targets [7][9]. Group 3: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - There is an emphasis on optimizing and expanding structural monetary policy tools to support key sectors such as technology innovation and small and micro enterprises [9][10]. - The PBOC is considering further reductions in re-lending rates to enhance the effectiveness of structural tools in promoting economic upgrades and improving livelihoods [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent LPR remains unchanged, with the 1-year rate at 3.0% and the 5-year rate at 3.5%, indicating a stable monetary policy environment and a lack of incentive for banks to lower LPR quotes [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Context - Economic data for January and February exceeded expectations, providing a favorable observation window for policy adjustments, with a growth target set between 4.5% and 5% for the year, reducing the urgency for interest rate cuts [4]. - The core anchor for LPR, the 7-day reverse repo rate, has remained at 1.40% since May 2025, contributing to the stability of LPR [3][4]. - External factors, such as escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East leading to rising international oil prices, may introduce inflationary pressures, while the Federal Reserve's stable interest rate policy limits the potential for LPR reductions [4]. Group 2: Banking Sector Dynamics - Commercial banks are experiencing historically low net interest margins, which constrains their ability to lower LPR quotes [4]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in February was approximately 3.1%, down about 20 basis points year-on-year, while the average rate for new personal housing loans was also around 3.1%, down about 10 basis points year-on-year [4]. - Maintaining stable interest rates is seen as beneficial for banks to alleviate operational pressures and stabilize credit issuance [4]. Group 3: Central Bank Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need to guide and regulate interest rates based on economic conditions, aiming to keep social financing costs low [5]. - The central bank's approach to monetary easing will be flexible, depending on the recovery of the real economy and the progress of credit expansion, with a likelihood of continued easing throughout the year [5]. - The anticipated reduction in LPR for the year is expected to be modest, potentially between 5 to 10 basis points [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March 2026, the LPR quotes remained unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. The direct reasons were that the pricing basis of LPR quotes remained unchanged and there was a lack of motivation for banks to actively lower the LPR quote spreads. The fundamental reason was that the macro - economy started strongly in 2026, and the current demand for stabilizing growth was not high, so the monetary policy was in an observation period [3][4]. - It is expected that a comprehensive policy - based interest rate cut will likely occur around mid - year, with a cut of 10 to 20 basis points, which will drive the LPR quotes to follow suit. This is an important measure to promote consumption and investment and hedge against external uncertainties [4]. - Due to factors such as geopolitical fluctuations and the continuous implementation of anti - involution policies, the price level will rise moderately this year, and the CPI increase will still be low. The exchange rate factor's impact on the flexible adjustment of domestic monetary policy is weakening, providing sufficient space for moderately loose monetary policy including interest rate cuts [5]. - It is expected that the regulatory authorities may guide the 5 - year - plus LPR quotes to decline significantly and combine with fiscal interest subsidies to lower the residential mortgage interest rate, which is crucial for stimulating housing market demand and reversing market expectations [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content LPR Quotes in March 2026 - On March 20, 2026, the 1 - year LPR was reported at 3.0% (the same as last month), and the 5 - year - plus LPR was reported at 3.5% (the same as last month) [2]. Reasons for Unchanged LPR Quotes in March - The pricing basis of LPR quotes remained unchanged as the policy interest rate (7 - day reverse repurchase rate) was stable [3]. - There was a lack of motivation for banks to actively lower the LPR quote spreads. Although the medium - and long - term market interest rates declined slightly, the commercial banks' net interest margin was at a historical low in Q4 2025, and there was pressure on the net interest margin to narrow in Q1 2026 [3]. Fundamental Reasons for Unchanged LPR Quotes since the Beginning of the Year - The macro - economy started strongly in 2026, with exports exceeding expectations, and improvements in consumption and investment growth in January - February. The new quality productivity sectors such as high - tech manufacturing developed rapidly, so the current demand for stabilizing growth was not high [4]. - In January 2026, the central bank launched a package of structural monetary policies, so the monetary policy was in an observation period [4]. Future Outlook - It is expected that a comprehensive policy - based interest rate cut will occur around mid - year, with a cut of 10 to 20 basis points, driving the LPR quotes to follow suit [4]. - The price level will rise moderately this year, and the CPI increase will be low. The exchange rate factor's impact on domestic monetary policy adjustment is weakening, providing space for moderately loose monetary policy [5]. - It is expected that the regulatory authorities may guide the 5 - year - plus LPR quotes to decline significantly and combine with fiscal interest subsidies to lower the residential mortgage interest rate [5].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report gives a "Shock and Bullish" rating for the steel and ore sector in the black building materials industry [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report expects the steel and ore market to fluctuate. For trading strategies, it suggests gradually closing long positions in steel and ore, continuing to hold the strategy of going long on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, and considering going long on the ratio of rebar to iron ore [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Review - On Thursday, rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore all closed down. During the night session, rebar and iron ore closed up, while hot - rolled coil closed flat [1] Important Information - On March 17, relevant Chinese departments held a symposium on new energy vehicle industry, aiming to standardize competition order and promote development [1] - As of March 17, the total US federal debt reached $39,016,762,910,245.14, breaking through the $39 - trillion mark [1] - From January to February, China's cumulative crude steel production was 160.34 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; pig iron production was 137.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%; steel production was 221.19 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [1] - The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy and maintain market liquidity [1] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel "independently" attacked an Iranian gas field and would follow Trump's "pause" request for subsequent air strikes on energy facilities [1] Market Logic - On March 19, the market prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port fell [1] - On March 19, the price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3250 yuan, down 10 yuan; the price of Shanghai Angang/Benxi hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan, down 20 yuan [1] - On March 19, the spot market of port coke was stable. The total inventory of the two ports increased compared to the previous working day [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.3982 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 188,500 tons or 2.3%; the total inventory was 19.4623 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 286,600 tons or 1.5%; the apparent consumption was 8.6828 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.8%. Rebar and hot - rolled coil production increased and inventory continued to decline [1] - This week, the daily pig iron output was 2.2818 million tons, an increase of 69,500 tons. The profitability rate was 42.42%, a 1.29% increase from last week [2] Trading Strategies - The support and pressure levels for rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are estimated. For rebar, the support is 3000 and the pressure is 3200; for hot - rolled coil, the support is 3180 and the pressure is 3350; for iron ore, the support is 750 and the pressure is 840 [2] - For single - side trading, gradually close long positions in steel and ore. For arbitrage, continue to hold the strategy of going long on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, with a suggested stop - loss spread of 130 and a take - profit spread of about 200. Consider going long on the ratio of rebar to iron ore, aiming for the ratio to rise above 4 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is under significant pressure due to rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions, particularly following the U.S. airstrikes on Iran, which have led to increased oil prices and inflation expectations [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at the current level during the upcoming meeting, with a 99% probability of no rate cut [4]. - The market anticipates only one rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026, likely delayed until December, indicating that geopolitical shocks are becoming a crucial variable in policy decisions [4]. - The rapid rise in energy prices complicates the Federal Reserve's policy environment, with a focus on how these prices affect inflation and employment data [4]. Group 2: Economic Data Analysis - Recent economic data shows that the U.S. economy is resilient but showing signs of marginal weakening, with February non-farm payrolls falling short of expectations and an increase in the unemployment rate [5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, indicating inflation remains manageable but may be impacted by recent energy price fluctuations [5]. Group 3: Policy Communication and Perspectives - Federal Reserve officials have adopted a cautious stance, with a general tendency to "wait and see" regarding policy adjustments [6]. - Different Fed officials express varying degrees of caution, with some suggesting that inflation risks remain significant and that the Fed should not underestimate these risks [6]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Fed may initiate rate cuts in June, but there are risks that this could be delayed until September or December, potentially requiring larger cuts later [6]. Group 4: Balancing Act for the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve faces a dual challenge: the cooling labor market may provide room for policy shifts, while rising energy prices and their inflationary effects limit the potential for early easing [7]. - The balance between promoting growth and controlling inflation will be a key focus for the market in the near future [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the macro - financial sector, the stock index futures may rebound in the short - term, and attention should be paid to trading volume; the bond market gradually has odds, and it is advisable to gradually go long on the bond market on the left side [12][13]. - In the black sector, for steel, short - term long positions should take profits at high prices, and the previously sold wide - straddle strategy should be held; for iron ore, the sold wide - straddle strategy should be held, and short - selling operations should be carried out at high prices later; for coking coal and coke, the prices may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long at low prices; for ferroalloys, it is recommended to go short on ferrosilicon at high prices, and manganese silicon should be observed; for soda ash and glass, it is advisable to wait and see [15][16][18]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, copper prices will fluctuate under pressure in the short - term; zinc should be treated with a bearish - biased and volatile mindset; lead should be treated with a volatile mindset; lithium carbonate may fluctuate weakly in the short - term; industrial silicon fluctuates, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling out - of - the - money put options; polysilicon may fluctuate weakly, and operations should be cautious [22][24][26][28][30]. - In the agricultural products sector, cotton prices are under short - term adjustment; sugar prices may rebound in a volatile manner; for eggs, it is recommended to go short on rebounds; apples may run strongly; for corn, it is necessary to be cautious about chasing high prices; jujubes may fluctuate weakly; for live pigs, it is advisable to go short on near - month contracts [33][35][39][41][42][43][44]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors, and the supply reduction risk is significant; fuel oil will follow oil prices and enter high - level fluctuations; plastics may fluctuate strongly in the short - term; for rubber, unilateral operations should be cautious; synthetic rubber may maintain high volatility; methanol may be slightly strong in the short - term; for caustic soda, it is necessary to grasp the market rhythm; asphalt prices follow oil prices; PVC may be strong in the short - term but with callback risks; for the polyester industry chain, a cautiously bullish mindset can be maintained; liquefied petroleum gas is expected to remain strong; for pulp, it can be tried to go long at low prices; for logs, the fundamentals are expected to stabilize; for urea, short positions can be arranged according to the trend of chemical futures [46][47][49][50][51][52][54][55][56][57][59][60][61][62]. 3. Key Points by Directory 3.1 Macro Information - The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran continues to escalate. Iran declares the war has entered a "new stage", while the US and Israel make relevant statements. The US may lift sanctions on Iranian oil and release strategic oil reserves. Iran warns of stronger counter - attacks if energy facilities are attacked again [8]. - Central banks around the world announce interest rate decisions. The European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, and the Swedish Riksbank all maintain interest rates unchanged. There are expectations of interest rate hikes due to the uncertainty caused by the Middle East conflict [9]. - China's central bank deploys key work for the year, including implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, maintaining market stability, and promoting the resolution of debt risks of financing platforms [9]. - China's fiscal revenue and expenditure in January - February show that revenue increases slightly, while expenditure grows faster. The securities trading stamp duty increases significantly [10]. - The US approves a military sales plan worth about $16.5 billion to the UAE, Kuwait, and Jordan. The US Federal debt exceeds $39 trillion, and it is predicted to reach $40 trillion before the mid - term elections [10][11]. 3.2 Macro - Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market is in shock adjustment. The Shanghai Composite Index falls 1.39% to 4006.55 points. The short - term may rebound, and attention should be paid to trading volume [12]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market gradually has odds, and it is advisable to gradually go long on the bond market on the left side. The central bank may be preparing for the next interest rate cut by reducing bank liability costs [13]. 3.3 Black 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel demand is weak, with real - estate sales and new construction data not optimistic, and infrastructure project progress slow. However, steel mills' current order situation is okay, but high inventory suppresses prices. Iron ore supply and demand are both strong, with inventory changes and production adjustments [15][16]. - Steel short - term long positions should take profits at high prices, and the previously sold wide - straddle strategy should be held; iron ore's sold wide - straddle strategy should be held, and short - selling operations should be carried out at high prices later [16]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal supply returns to normal, and steel mill iron - making output will increase slightly. In the short - term, coking coal prices may fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at low prices. In the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern is expected to remain in wide - range fluctuations [18]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are affected by factory pricing and market sentiment. It is recommended to go short on ferrosilicon at high prices, and manganese silicon should be observed [19]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash supply remains high, and attention should be paid to supply stability. Glass supply has cold - repair and ignition expectations, and the demand side needs to recover. It is advisable to wait and see [20]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous and New Materials 3.4.1 Copper - Geopolitical tensions increase inflation pressure, and copper prices will fluctuate under pressure in the short - term. Fundamentally, downstream demand recovers, and inventory starts to decline. In the long - term, the tight supply of ore raw materials supports copper prices [22][23]. 3.4.2 Zinc - Zinc inventory decreases, and prices are treated with a bearish - biased and volatile mindset. Attention should be paid to the possible rebound after a significant decline [24]. 3.4.3 Lead - Lead inventory reaches a high level, but after the price drops, smelting enterprises are reluctant to sell at low prices, and downstream procurement increases. It is advisable to observe the price rebound strength and treat it with a volatile mindset [26]. 3.4.4 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate supply and demand weaken marginally in the short - term, and it may fluctuate weakly under the background of poor macro - sentiment [28]. 3.4.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon fluctuates, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling out - of - the - money put options. Polysilicon may fluctuate weakly, and operations should be cautious [30]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - Cotton prices are under short - term adjustment due to increased imports and external conflicts. The global cotton supply and demand situation is complex, and domestic cotton inventory starts to decline. Market expectations for consumption in March and April are high [33][34]. 3.5.2 Sugar - Sugar prices may rebound in a volatile manner. Global sugar supply and demand have different expectations, and domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure. The price is affected by international sugar prices and domestic supply [35][36][38]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, egg prices may be strong in the short - term, but the supply pressure is large. It is recommended to go short on rebounds [39]. 3.5.4 Apples - Apple prices of high - quality goods may run strongly. With low inventory and increasing demand for Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, the market is expected to be stable and strong [41]. 3.5.5 Corn - Corn prices are at a relatively high level. It is necessary to be cautious about chasing high prices and pay attention to new - season wheat production and policy - related grain supply [42][43]. 3.5.6 Jujubes - Jujube prices may fluctuate weakly. After the Spring Festival, consumption enters the off - season, and high inventory remains [43]. 3.5.7 Live Pigs - The supply - demand pattern of live pigs is "supply is strong and demand is weak". The spot price is under pressure, and it is advisable to go short on near - month contracts [44]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Crude oil prices fluctuate due to attacks on energy facilities. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz leads to a significant supply reduction risk, but the geopolitical premium may decline [46]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - Fuel oil will follow oil prices and enter high - level fluctuations. The key is the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [47][48]. 3.6.3 Plastics - Polyolefin prices may be supported by geopolitical factors and upstream production cuts in the short - term, but the spot market is weak [49]. 3.6.4 Rubber - The conflict may affect tire exports. It is advisable to be cautious in unilateral operations. Attention should be paid to the price difference and the opportunity of selling put options after full - scale tapping [50]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber prices are driven by cost and may maintain high volatility. Attention should be paid to raw material supply and energy price changes [51]. 3.6.6 Methanol - Methanol supply and demand improve slightly in the short - term. It may be strong due to geopolitical factors, but there is a possibility of callback if the war eases [52][53]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - The rise of caustic soda is driven by supply reduction and export growth, while the decline is driven by high - premium futures and more warehouse receipts. It is necessary to grasp the market rhythm [54]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - Asphalt is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price follows oil prices, and the key is the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [55]. 3.6.9 PVC - PVC may be strong in the short - term due to production cuts, but there are callback risks if the market sentiment turns bad [56]. 3.6.10 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain can be treated with a cautiously bullish mindset, but attention should be paid to the risk of callback due to the cooling of geopolitical sentiment [57]. 3.6.11 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Liquefied petroleum gas is expected to remain strong, but relatively weaker than crude oil. The supply risk may be alleviated, and demand is expected to increase [59]. 3.6.12 Pulp - Pulp prices may rebound due to warehouse receipt cancellation and port inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to inventory and price changes of finished products [60]. 3.6.13 Logs - Log demand is recovering, and the price is supported by cost. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Iran conflict and port inventory [61]. 3.6.14 Urea - Urea is affected by overseas factors and domestic policies. It is advisable to arrange short positions according to the trend of chemical futures [62].