Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for investment in China's AI sector, particularly highlighting the emergence of DeepSeek as a significant milestone in the industry [1][3]. Core Insights - DeepSeek's development represents China's ambition to lead in the tech revolution, potentially inspiring a new generation of talent and contributing to national pride [1][7]. - The cost-effective training of DeepSeek, reportedly under $6 million, challenges the narrative that China lags behind the U.S. in AI innovation, as it achieves near-parity with top models [2][3]. - The MSCI China Index surged 26% following DeepSeek's unveiling, indicating strong investor enthusiasm for AI-driven economic growth [3]. Summary by Sections DeepSeek's Impact - DeepSeek's breakthrough is seen as a symbol of China's resurgence in innovation and competitiveness, with implications for emerging market investors [1][14]. - The emergence of other AI agents, such as Butterfly Effect's Manus, further illustrates the competitive landscape in China's AI sector [4][5]. Policy and Market Dynamics - A shift in policy from regulatory crackdowns to support for private-sector innovation is noted, with high-level meetings between political leaders and tech executives [8]. - China's AI ecosystem is positioned as a unique opportunity for investors, focusing on consumer-facing applications rather than hardware [9]. Future of AI Development - The report outlines a dual-track future for AI, contrasting China's efficiency-driven approach with the capital-intensive models in the U.S. [13][14]. - Both models are expected to coexist, providing a diversified opportunity set for emerging market investors [14].

表：主要数据集大小汇总，以GB为单位。公开的数据集以粗体表示， 确定的数据以斜体表示。Common Crawl数据集过滤之前为45T DeepSeek 智能时代的全面到来和人机协作的新常态 孙凌云 教 授 计算机科学与技术学院 2025年2月 一、智能演变 二、人机协作 三、产业现状 四、教育成长 到 2020 年的 GPT-3， 模型预训练数据量从 4.6GB 增加到了 45TB 45TB 相当于三千万本《西游记》 主要模型数据集包括： 来源： OpenAI团队，Language Models are Few-Shot ，2022年7月22日 | | 维基 百科 | 书籍 | 杂志 期刊 | Reddit 链接 | Common Crawl | 其他 数据 | 总计 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | GPT-1 | | 4.6 | | | | | 4.6 | | GPT-2 | | | | 40 | | | 40 | | GPT-3 | 11.4 | 21 | 101 | 50 | 570 | | 753 | | The Pile v ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Tech stocks have recently experienced a significant decline, with the Nasdaq Composite falling 13.6% from its peak on December 17, 2024, indicating a market correction [1][2] - Investor concerns are driven by weakening consumer sentiment, tariff uncertainties, and lowered guidance from major companies like Delta Air Lines [2] Group 2: Nvidia's Performance - Nvidia has lost over $1 trillion in market value since its peak earlier this year, with its stock down 27% [3][4] - Despite negative headlines, Nvidia's revenue grew 78% to $39.3 billion in the fourth quarter, and it expects around $43 billion in revenue for the first quarter, representing 65% growth year-over-year [6][7] Group 3: Future Prospects - Nvidia's demand for its new Blackwell platform exceeds supply, and the company is increasing production at an unprecedented rate [7] - The long-term outlook for Nvidia remains positive, with continued demand for semiconductors expected to grow across various sectors, including data centers and self-driving cars [8] Group 4: Investment Considerations - Nvidia's stock is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 24, which is competitive compared to the S&P 500's forward P/E of 20.7, suggesting it may be undervalued [9] - The stock appears to be a good buying opportunity for long-term investors, especially given its resilience against tariffs and strong product demand [10]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has been a dominant player in the AI sector, with its stock increasing over 600% since the beginning of 2023, reaching a market cap of approximately $3 trillion [1] Financial Performance - Nvidia reported a 78% revenue growth in Q4, totaling $39.3 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $38.2 billion [2] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) improved from $0.49 to $0.89, exceeding estimates of $0.85 [2] - The Q1 guidance projects revenue around $43 billion, better than analyst expectations of $42.05 billion [2] Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - Despite strong earnings, Nvidia's stock has declined about 16% year-to-date and fell 8% after the earnings report [2] - The stock has dropped 27% from its peak a few months ago, marking its lowest point since September 2024 [3] - Investor fatigue may be influencing the stock's recent sell-off, compounded by concerns over tariffs and potential illegal exports to China [3] Historical Context - Nvidia's stock has experienced significant volatility, with notable drawdowns of 50% or more occurring in 2018 and 2022 [8][9] - The stock rebounded to all-time highs within approximately 18 months after both previous drawdowns, indicating a potential for recovery [8][9] Industry Dynamics - Demand for Nvidia's new Blackwell chips continues to exceed supply, reinforcing its competitive advantage in data center GPUs essential for AI applications [11] - Cloud computing companies are increasing capital expenditures, which bodes well for Nvidia's growth prospects [11] - The pursuit of artificial general intelligence (AGI) is expected to persist, even amid a weakening global economy [11] Valuation and Investment Outlook - Nvidia's stock is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25, aligning with the S&P 500, despite its faster growth rate [12] - The stock is viewed as a potential buying opportunity due to its recent decline and historical resilience [13]

以下文章来源于晚点对话 ，作者程曼祺 晚点对话 . 最一手的商业访谈，最真实的企业家思考。 "创业没有天选之子。" 文丨程曼祺 编辑丨宋玮 *头图是 Dota 2019 国际邀请赛决赛（TI9）中，OG 战队的 Ana 使用 IO（小精灵，图中球形发光体）的经典作战。 经过 "一切在加速" 的 2024 年，围绕中国大模型创业的讨论，从 "谁又融资了？" 变成 "谁会第一个倒 下？" 行业分化时刻，我们与中国大模型六小龙之一，估值已超 30 亿美元的 MiniMax 创始人兼 CEO 闫俊杰访 谈 3 小时，聊了 MiniMax 的新技术目标、新模型，去年一年的公司变化和人员调整，和他作为一个 "练习 时长 3 年" 的初次 CEO 的自我复盘。我们也对他进行了 "信仰之问"。 10 个月前， 闫俊杰也接受过《晚点》访谈 ，那时他提了 16 次字节、47 次 OpenAI，8 次 Anthropic。 这次再聊，他主动提字节少了，提 Anthropic 多了。这与行业风向形成微妙的反差。 闫俊杰更在意字节的 2024 年 3 月，中国大模型创业公司势头正盛，此前 6 个月里，各模型公司至少融了 20 亿美元。 ...