Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing inflation trends and forecasts, indicating that consumer price increases are expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels until at least 2026 [2][3][6] - Economists predict that core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation will stabilize but not return to the Federal Reserve's target of 2% for some time [5][6][11] Inflation Trends - Prior to 2021, core PCE inflation typically rose less than 2% annually, but surged to 5.6% in 2022, the highest in nearly four decades [3] - As of September, core PCE inflation was reported at 2.8%, indicating a slight increase over the year [5][11] Economic Predictions - The median forecast from economists suggests core PCE inflation will be 2.4% by the end of 2026, reflecting a cooling trend but still above pre-pandemic levels [6] - Deutsche Bank economists predict inflation will remain at 2.25% or more through at least 2028, despite lower tariff rates and a slowdown in housing costs [7] Varied Forecasts - Oxford Economics forecasts a more optimistic scenario, expecting core PCE inflation to cool to 2.2% by the end of 2026, driven by decelerating housing costs [8][9] - Conversely, Bank of America predicts core PCE inflation will remain at 2.8% through 2026, attributing this to ongoing tariff impacts [12]

During the Covid lockdowns, my wife and I occasionally ordered from major steakhouses like Morton’s and Ruth’s Chris, which offered aggressive delivery deals and meal kits. Those promotions underscored how heavily steakhouses depended on in-person dining and how vulnerable they were when offices emptied, and business travel stalled. "As remote or hybrid work continues to be popular, office attendance has fallen. Less in-person work may increase office vacancy rates and reduce foot traffic to other busin ...

Economic Challenges - Many Americans are struggling to accumulate sufficient savings and afford emergency expenses as costs for home repairs and hospital stays increase faster than inflation [1] - In 2024, 13% of adults reported being unable to pay a $400 emergency expense, while 37% indicated they would cover it by borrowing money or selling items [5] Retirement Savings Impact - The percentage of employees taking hardship withdrawals from retirement accounts more than doubled from 2% in 2018 to about 5% in 2024 [2][10] - Hardship withdrawals, while not penalized, reduce retirement savings and cannot be repaid, potentially delaying retirement or reducing future funds [4] Rising Costs of Emergencies - Vehicle maintenance and repair costs rose by 7.7% in September 2025 compared to September 2024, significantly outpacing general inflation of 3.0% [7] - The average cost of car repairs reached $838 in early 2025, influenced by supply chain disruptions and tariffs on parts [8] - Hospital stay costs increased by nearly 25% over the past five years, with hospital service costs rising almost twice as fast as general inflation [9][11] Home Repair Expenses - Increased frequency and severity of natural disasters have led to higher spending on home repairs [13] - From July 2024 to July 2025, the cost of home reconstruction, including materials and labor, increased by 4.2% due to rising prices from tariffs [14]

We recently published 10 Stocks on Jim Cramer’s Radar.  Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE:TSN) is one of the stocks on Jim Cramer's radar. Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE:TSN) is one of the largest packaged food companies in America. Its shares are flat year-to-date, with media reports pinning the blame on several factors. These include a demand by President Trump that the firm be investigated for price fixing and the firm paying $85 million in October to consumers after a lawsuit involving similar allegations. On a more pos ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock market has experienced significant gains over the past three years, but concerns are rising about a potential market crash in 2026, primarily driven by inflation and rising bond yields rather than AI stocks [1][2]. Inflation Concerns - Inflation peaked around 9% in 2022, and despite the Federal Reserve's efforts, the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows inflation at approximately 2.7%, still above the Fed's target of 2% [5]. - Many economists believe the actual inflation rate may be higher due to incomplete CPI reporting, which could lead to consumer perceptions of persistent high prices [6]. Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve faces a challenging situation where lowering interest rates could support the labor market but risk increasing inflation, while raising rates could control inflation but harm employment and slow economic growth [7]. Bond Yields and Market Fragility - Higher inflation is likely to lead to increased bond yields, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury bill currently yielding around 4.12%. Yields approaching 4.5% or 5% could create market instability [8]. - Rising yields result in higher borrowing costs for consumers and the government, which can negatively impact stock valuations as the cost of capital increases [9][10]. Future Inflation Projections - Some Wall Street banks predict inflation will rise above 3% in 2026 before declining, with JPMorgan Chase forecasting 3% inflation peaking and Bank of America predicting a peak of 3.1% [11]. - If inflation peaks and shows signs of deceleration, the market may stabilize; however, high inflation can become entrenched, leading to persistent high prices that affect consumer behavior [12]. Market Timing Advisory - Predicting inflation trends in 2026 is uncertain, and attempting to time the market is discouraged. A sustained rise in inflation and yields could significantly impact market stability [13].

Homebuyers can usher in 2026 with a little relief as mortgage rates fell to the lowest level of 2025 in the final report of the year. Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released Wednesday, showed the average rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage decreased to 6.15% from last week's reading of 6.18%. The average rate on a 30-year loan started the year around 7%. "After starting the year close to 7%, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage moved to its lowest level in 2025 this we ...

30 December 2025 | 5:48PM EST Economics Research USA: FOMC Minutes Note "Most" Participants See Further Rate Cuts "Over Time," While "Some" See Policy "Unchanged for Some Time" BOTTOM LINE: The minutes to the FOMC's December meeting noted that "most" participants supported the Committee's decision to lower the fed funds rate in December, while "some" participants preferred to leave policy unchanged and "a few" participants noted either that their support for a cut was "finely balanced" or that they could ha ...

Key Points A return to a lower interest rate environment could lead to a re-rating for Federal Realty, a retail-focused REIT. An easing of inflationary pressures could boost Hormel's earnings, in turn potentially driving dividend growth and share price appreciation. Lower inflation could improve the chances of a successful turnaround for big-box retailer Target. 10 stocks we like better than Federal Realty Investment Trust › Those seeking stability and reliability should consider investing in Di ...

On the plus side, these increases are automatic, and recipients don't have to take any action as the higher amounts will start to appear in January 2026 benefit payments. Unfortunately, the methodology that has helped determine these increases has been in place since 1975 as part of the CPI-W. While designed to protect beneficiaries from inflation, it also only measures increases from the third quarter of 2024 against the third quarter of 2025. This said, in 2023, when inflation spiked, the COLA did spike t ...

Core Insights - The future economy may experience lower inflation and fewer jobs due to AI advancements, as suggested by Chen Zhao, chief global strategist at Alpine Macroeconomics [1] - The "jobless profit boom" driven by AI could lead to inflation rates below 2% by the end of next year [1] Economic Implications - AI is expected to reshape inflation and productivity trends, resulting in significant shifts in the U.S. economy [3] - Productivity improvements from AI may drive inflation below the Federal Reserve's 2% target, potentially decreasing from the current level of about 3% [4] - The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates to stimulate demand if inflation decreases significantly [4] Job Market Impact - The transition to an AI-driven economy may lead to job displacement, similar to the impact of globalization on blue-collar workers in the past [11] - Amazon's recent layoff of 14,000 corporate workers highlights the potential for AI to increase operational efficiency while reducing workforce size [10] - The transition period could be painful for workers, especially in an economy already marked by high inequality [11] Mixed Perspectives - Not all experts agree that AI will lead to lower inflation, as other factors, such as tariffs, may push prices higher in the short term [6] - Some economists express skepticism about whether AI will deliver the promised labor-saving benefits [9]