Market Performance & Economic Outlook - S&P 500 earnings are up 10% year-over-year, and NASDAQ 100 earnings are up 34% year-over-year, indicating strength in the US market [1] - Concerns about Fed independence are causing a slight sell-off at the long end of the curve [2] - The Fed's influence is strongest on the two-year rate, which has decreased by approximately 7-8 basis points [3] Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The Fed only controls the short-term lending rate, and excessive cuts could lead to a steepening of the yield curve, potentially resulting in higher longer-term interest rates [3] - There is potential for the Fed to implement two or three rate cuts without significantly impacting the long end of the curve, even with inflation around 3% [4] - Lower rates on money markets and challenges in generating income from interest rates and bonds make equity income more attractive [5] Investment Strategy - The ITWO ETF, a Russell 2000 high-income ETF focused on small caps, is highlighted as a pick [4] - Small caps are more leveraged and have shorter maturity, making them more sensitive to and potentially benefiting more from rate cuts compared to large caps [5]

Interest rates are coming down one way or another ...

Discover the difference between hawkish and dovish policies. Learn how inflation hawks prioritize controlling inflation with high interest rates for economic stability. https://t.co/ScJDPZNLXs ...

US government debt could reach 250% of gross domestic product without putting upward pressure on interest rates, according to a paper presented at the Jackson Hole conference https://t.co/cH4hH5GKE9 ...

Hey MessariAI, why is the market rising?Diran Li (@diran_li):Lower interest rates = higher liquidity. Markets are rising in response to a dovish Jerome Powell. Sept rate cuts at 90% probability. Higher.https://t.co/uWE73Hn09l https://t.co/cPzQQ7kVnh ...

15 years into his time on the Fed, half of which he's been in charge, J. Paul makes his last appearance as chair at the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This time, he's not coming alone.>> He's a terrible Fed chair. I was surprised he was appointed. >> I don't know who.>> Donald Trump, president of the United States and a man with a B in his bonnet about Chairman Powell. He'll be the unseen presence in the room when the chair speaks. Trump's new budget bill means the gov ...

US equities fell at the open Tuesday as earnings from Home Depot kicked off a string of key retail reports and as investors awaited a Federal Reserve symposium this week to set expectations for the path of interest rates https://t.co/pRTsExNFa4 ...

Interest Rates and Housing Market - The market generally believes that a dovish Federal Reserve (J Pal) could positively impact the housing market, but the analysis suggests otherwise [1] - Long-term interest rates are expected to remain elevated, similar to the trend observed after the Federal Reserve cut 100 basis points at the end of 2024 [1] - There's a global aversion to taking on long duration, leading to higher long-term interest rates worldwide, with the UK 30-year gilt yield closing at its highest level since 1998 [2] - Homebuyers shouldn't necessarily expect significant rate relief from short-term interest rate cuts, especially when locking in a 30-year mortgage [2][3] Housing Supply and Demand - A significant increase in the supply of existing homes is needed, primarily driven by baby boomers downsizing [4] - Stimulating housing demand through low mortgage rates without a corresponding increase in supply will only lead to higher home prices, negating the benefits of lower rates [8] - Lower mortgage rates and increased supply are both necessary to increase transaction activity in the housing market [8] Homebuilder Earnings - Increased existing home supply and declining home prices, while stimulating demand, could negatively impact homebuilder earnings, creating a "catch 22" situation [5] Mortgage Rates - Many homeowners have mortgages under 5%, even under 4%, making it difficult to move despite downsizing desires due to potential mortgage rate increases [6]

Stocks were relatively quiet as investors await Fed chair Pal's speech at Jackson Hole that's set to take place on Friday. Markets will be closely watching to see if Pal sticks with his hawkish tone. Our next guest says market watchers are too bearish on growth and too worried about inflation.Joining us now is Eric Freriedman, US Bank Chief Investment Officer. Eric, it's great to have you on. Let's start right there.Why do you think that's the case. >> Yeah, Morgan, great to see you. I think really two thin ...

Welcome back to Squawk Box. Joining us now Jeremy Siegel, chief economist at Wisdomtree and professor emeritus of finance at University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business. Good to see you, Jeremy.We have had guys like Kevin Warsh will mention tariff inflation. He'll say tariffs aren't what causes inflation. Never has been, never will be.Inflation is caused by an out of control money supply or too much stimulus stimulus in a supply constrained world, in your view. And what you're saying here, up th ...