Group 1: Dollar Strength and Market Dynamics - The dollar has been a significant theme in the first part of the year, contributing to the narrative of the end of U.S. exceptionalism for 2025 [1][2] - Recent movements indicate the dollar is breaking from its ranges against key currencies, suggesting potential for continued strength into year-end [3] - With approximately 70% of the market pricing in a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, there is potential upside in yields that could support the dollar's movement [4] Group 2: Asset Correlations and Market Volatility - There is a noted breakdown in cross-national correlations, with movements in the dollar not affecting other asset classes like gold or private credit [5] - The market may be entering a more volatile phase, reminiscent of the late 1990s tech bubble, with potential for significant corrections while still seeing overall market growth [7] - Higher dollar and yields indicate tightening financial conditions, which may negatively impact precious metals and cryptocurrencies [8] Group 3: Yen Weakness and Market Outlook - Structural factors contributing to yen depreciation remain strong, including negative real yields and a poor growth outlook [9] - The dollar is expected to strengthen against the yen, with market sentiment leaning towards further yen weakness [10] - Intervention from Japanese officials is not anticipated unless the dollar-yen exchange rate exceeds 158 [10]

Core Insights - TPG RE Finance Trust (TRTX) is currently trading at a significant double-digit discount to its book value per share, indicating potential undervaluation in the market [1] - The preferred shares of TRTX are offering elevated yields compared to their levels from a year ago, suggesting an attractive income opportunity for investors [1] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to further cut interest rates, which may positively impact the performance of REITs and other income-generating assets [1] Company Focus - Pacifica Yield is focused on long-term wealth creation by targeting undervalued yet high-growth companies, high-dividend stocks, REITs, and firms in the green energy sector [1]

My gameplan at the moment is this➥ QT ends in December➥ Rate cuts (2-3) next year, will mark the top➥ Anticipating Q2 top, once they signal no further cuts➥ Take profits into stables on many of my long term holds➥ Have capital ready to deploy into new narratives and short term time frames, to rotate back into stables➥ Be patient and hold the stable bag through late 2026 + 2027, in anticipation of better prices for longer term appreciation➥ Dont shy away from equity market and stock exposure, especially new ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an equal-weight rating on equities, overweight in core fixed income, and underweight in other fixed income [4][5]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate rate cuts, with four consecutive 25 basis point cuts anticipated through January 2026, leading to a terminal rate of 2.875% [2][20]. - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a focus on improving expectations despite ongoing trade tensions and global slowdown risks, with a preference for quality assets [3][4]. - The report highlights a constructive outlook on USD assets, while cautioning about potential pressures on the dollar due to rising policy uncertainty [4]. Economic Outlook - In the US, real GDP growth showed a recovery in Q2 2025, but domestic demand has slowed, averaging 1.9% quarter-on-quarter in the first half of the year [8]. - The Euro area experienced stable GDP growth in the first half of 2025, with PMIs indicating continued firmness [9]. - Japan's nominal growth remains positive, supported by resilient manufacturing sentiment, while China's GDP growth is expected to soften in the second half of the year due to reduced stimulus [9]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, the report favors quality cyclical stocks and those with high operational efficiency, while in Japan, it recommends companies benefiting from domestic reflation and defense spending [6]. - Key sectors in Europe include defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials, with a focus on resilient market pockets [6]. - Emerging markets are favored towards financials and domestic-focused businesses over exporters [6]. Earnings Forecasts - The S&P 500 is projected to have an EPS of 259 for 2025, increasing to 283 in 2026, reflecting a 7% and 9% year-on-year growth respectively [7]. - The MSCI Europe index is expected to see a slight decline in EPS for 2025, with a forecast of 138, but a modest increase to 141 in 2026 [7]. - Emerging markets are projected to have an EPS growth of 6% in 2025 and 10% in 2026, with a forecast of 84 and 92 respectively [7].

Market Overview - The market has shifted focus from trade tensions to earnings performance, with earnings continuing to reach new 12-month forward highs driven by AI capital expenditures [3][4] - Despite concerns about potential impacts from tariffs, overall earnings have not been significantly affected, allowing the market to maintain upward momentum [2][3] Valuation and Historical Context - Current valuations for major tech companies (excluding Tesla) average between 35 to 38 times forward earnings, which is significantly lower than the over 200 times seen in 1999 for companies like Cisco and Intel [5][6] - The market is not in a euphoric state similar to the late 1990s, suggesting that the current AI-driven growth may continue to support performance [6] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The probability of a rate cut in December is currently at 71%, down from 84%, indicating a cautious market sentiment despite some expectations for cuts [8][9] - Analysts suggest that while the market is pricing in rate cuts, there is a risk that the Fed may not deliver as expected, especially if labor market data does not indicate significant weakness [9][10][14] Economic Implications - The market's reliance on further rate cuts implies a belief that the labor market is weaker than suggested by current data, which could lead to aggressive valuations if growth estimates are too high [14][15] - A balanced approach to rate cuts is preferred, as excessive cuts could signal deeper economic issues, impacting market stability [14][15]

Welcome back to the exchange. We're a little more than 24 hours from the Fed decision, but 28 days into the government shutdown for the impact of that and the ongoing trade uncertainty, uh, all of that could have a future a fate or could impact the future of rate cuts. We turn to Steve Leeman with the results of the latest CNBC Fed survey. Steve, >> thanks Leslie. Yeah, responders to the October CNBC Fed Service. rate cut on the way from this meeting, the next meeting in December, and possibly one in Januar ...

Welcome back to the exchange. We're a little more than 24 hours from the Fed decision, but 28 days into the government shutdown for the impact of that and the ongoing trade uncertainty, uh, all of that could have a future a fate or could impact the future of rate cuts. We turn to Steve Leeman with the results of the latest CNBC Fed survey. Steve, >> thanks Leslie. Yeah, responders to the October CNBC Fed Service. rate cut on the way from this meeting, the next meeting in December, and possibly one in Januar ...

Group 1 - Real estate investor Grant Cardone highlights a $7 trillion opportunity that could elevate asset prices across various sectors, including stocks, crypto, real estate, and gold [1] - Cardone notes that $7 trillion is currently in money markets, and as interest rates decrease, this capital is likely to be reallocated to higher-return assets [1][6] - The Federal Reserve has recently cut rates by 0.25% and is expected to continue this trend, potentially lowering the base rate further [2] Group 2 - Banks are anticipated to respond to rate cuts by reducing interest rates on money market accounts, which have variable rates that can change at any time [3] - The conclusion of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term in May may lead to further rate reductions, especially if a new chair is appointed who aligns with President Trump's pro-rate cut stance [4] - While some of the $7 trillion in money markets may remain due to its use as emergency savings, a portion could be invested in riskier assets if money market rates fail to keep pace with inflation [5][6] Group 3 - Rate cuts are expected to incentivize risk-taking, making borrowing cheaper and potentially driving up stock prices [6] - Lower mortgage rates resulting from rate cuts are likely to boost real estate prices, while alternative assets like crypto and gold may also benefit from an increased money supply [6]

Market Overview - The stock market reached new records with the S&P 500 up 1.2%, Dow up 0.7%, and Nasdaq up almost 2% [2] - Optimism is driven by progress on trade with China, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and signs of taming inflation [2] Company Highlights - Qualcomm's new rack server lineup is expected to compete with Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices in the AI sector, leading to an 11% stock rally [3] - United Health Care's stock rose nearly 5% in premarket trading after announcing stable earnings and raised guidance for the year [4] - United Parcel Service's stock increased almost 10% following well-received earnings and a sustainable business model [4] Commodity and Related Stocks - Gold prices briefly fell below $4000, impacting stocks reliant on gold, such as Newmont Mining Corp, which dropped over 4% [3] Market Sentiment - The VIX index has decreased to near 15, indicating a positive outlook for the market, but caution is advised due to upcoming news events [5]

Core Insights - Digital asset investment products experienced a significant rebound with $921 million in inflows over the past week, driven by renewed optimism regarding potential US interest rate cuts following softer inflation data [1][7] - Bitcoin products led the inflows with $931 million, while Ethereum products faced their first outflows in five weeks, totaling $243.9 million [5][7] Inflows and Trading Volumes - Global trading activity for exchange-traded products (ETPs) surged to $39 billion, significantly above the year-to-date weekly average of $28 billion, indicating strong investor confidence despite ongoing uncertainties [2][7] - The US accounted for the majority of inflows at $843 million, with Germany also reporting substantial inflows of $502 million, marking one of its largest weekly totals [2][7] Ethereum and Other Assets - Ethereum products recorded $169 million in outflows, marking a shift in investor sentiment after a period of strong inflows, although demand for 2x leveraged Ethereum ETPs remains robust [4][5] - Cumulative inflows for all Ethereum ETFs reached $14.35 billion, with assets under management at $26.39 billion, representing 5.55% of Ethereum's market capitalization [6]