Economic Indicators - San Francisco Fed researchers introduced a new recession warning gauge [1] - The gauge is intended to help economists assess the likelihood of a US economic downturn [1]

Recession Risks - Moody's Analytics认为美国经济衰退的风险非常高，就业是关键 [1] - 如果三个月移动平均失业率上升超过 0.5 个百分点，历史上预示着经济衰退 [3] - 由于移民政策等因素，失业率可能无法完全反映经济疲软 [4] - 负面的就业数据将是经济衰退的明确信号，历史上，当就业数据转为负值时，通常是经济衰退开始的月份 [2][6] - 要确认经济衰退，需要看到一系列持续的经济活动下降，而不仅仅是一两个月的负面数据 [6][7] Labor Market Dynamics - 稳定失业率所需的每月新增就业人数约为 2550 人 [5] - 由于数据测量问题等因素，潜在的就业增长可能接近该水平 [5] - 移民对劳动力增长至关重要，但更严格的移民政策导致外国出生的劳动力增长下降，甚至开始下降 [8][9][10] - 由于外国出生劳动力减少，整体劳动力规模低于年初水平，从而压低了失业率 [10][11] - 劳动力增长放缓会降低经济的潜在增长率，并可能导致通胀压力 [11][12] Consumer Spending - 今年总体实际消费支出停滞不前，部分原因可能是移民政策的影响 [12][13]

Japan’s economy expanded faster than expected last quarter, avoiding a recession and giving embattled Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba some rare good news as he fends off calls to resign https://t.co/yhwVVMmkUN ...

Japan’s economy likely managed to avoid falling into a recession by posting modest growth in the second quarter, as domestic demand led by capital spending offset the drag from US tariffs, according to economists https://t.co/YCDSeW6FEP ...

In the past quarter, stocks across the S&P 500 remained relatively expensive, with one key exception — the tech sector. Interesting. So what's happening with the tech sector.Well, tech's a massive sector, so let's talk about some key names, some of which are semiconductor stocks. Think about those companies that make builder design those small chips that go into electronic devices. These stocks are more volatile but when they rally they can often carry the entire sector to big gains.I see. But how come they ...

Economic Performance - Russia's economy experienced growth last quarter, avoiding a recession [1] Market Dynamics - The growth occurred despite pressure from very high interest rates [1]

Economic Outlook - Russia's economy likely returned to growth last quarter [1] - The economy dodged a recession despite pressure from ultra-high interest rates [1]

streaming on CNBC plus. >> Welcome back to The Exchange. Headline CPI data coming in cooler than expected this morning, but still up nearly 3% compared to this time last year.Still higher costs in focus. But consumer activity at regional Bank Frost was strong in Q2. The Texas Regional Bank, seeing a 3.7% jump in consumer deposit growth and strength in real estate loan products.For more, let's bring in Phil Green, CEO of Cullen Frost Bankers. Phil, it's great to speak with you today. >> Great to be here with ...

Productivity Growth & Economic Outlook - Productivity surges tend to occur at the beginning of recoveries after recessions [2] - The fact that productivity has held up well during the rolling recession suggests a secular change in productivity growth [2] - The company anticipates productivity growth could reach 5% or more, sustained for a longer period [3] Technological Drivers - New technologies such as robotics, energy storage, AI, blockchain technology, and multiomic sequencing are expected to drive significant productivity gains [3] Correlation of Economic Indicators - GDP growth and productivity growth are typically highly correlated on a year-over-year basis [1]

Corporate America has a lot worries, including tariffs, inflation and consumer demand. A recession isn’t one of them. https://t.co/HK2fV75JRw ...