Are housing starts predictive of inflation? In this episode of Stocks in Translation, Infrastructure Capital Advisors CEO Jay Hatfield joins host Jared Blikre and Yahoo Finance head of news Myles Udland to discuss the latest Wall Street news as well as strategies for investors in today’s bullish, tech-driven markets. The trio dig deeper into the Federal Reserve’s inflation targets, their impact over the housing markets, and whether a recession is on the horizon. Twice a week, Stocks In Translation cuts thro ...

RT Skewga.hl (@skewga_hyper)If this was an inflationary bear market, I could agree with Ansem here, but Im confident it’s not. My current view is:-Crypto is pricing in economic deceleration due to government shutdown.-Bank reserves are below the safety threshold. US liquidity is stressed.-Economic data is bad and policy makers know it. They have to juice markets.In order to have an inflationary bear, policymakers must be willing to drain liquidity to fight inflation. The current situation looks the opposite ...

Nvidia beats.Recession is cancelled. ...

Economic Outlook - Without an AI boom, a recession may be avoided [1] - Tariffs, debt, and a growth slowdown plague the world economy [1] - The world economy may not have much to celebrate in 2026 [1]

Core Insights - There are doubts regarding the S&P 500's ability to achieve a third consecutive year of twenty percent gains, with Wells Fargo's Scott Wren predicting a more modest return of around ten percent by 2025 [1] - An investor's anxiety about an imminent recession has led them to consider shifting a significant portion of their 401(k) into cash, highlighting a trend of fear-driven decision-making among investors [2] - The stock market has experienced a strong run, but skepticism about future performance is warranted, especially given the rapid gains seen in 2023 and 2024 [4] Market Performance - The S&P 500 has increased by 28.3 percent since the late 2021 peak, which is considered strong but aligns more closely with long-term market expectations when factoring in the 2022 bear market [5] - Comparisons are being made between the current AI-driven market surge and the late 1990s, indicating a potential for unsustainable growth unless a correction occurs [5] Investment Strategy - It is advised against making sudden portfolio changes based on fear of a market correction, as predicting recessions and their timing is notoriously difficult [6] - Investors are encouraged to remain calculated in their investment strategies rather than relying on emotional responses to market fluctuations [6]

Core Insights - A significant increase in prices for groceries and basic goods at Walmart has been reported, with some items seeing price hikes of 25% to 50% [1][2] - The CEO of Walmart acknowledged ongoing cost increases due to tariffs and indicated that price adjustments have been necessary for certain items [6] Price Increases - Ground beef has reportedly doubled to $8 per pound, while brand name shampoo/conditioner prices have risen from around $6 to over $10 [1][2] - A basic orbital sander that was priced at $15 a year ago is now $63, and basic sweatshirts have increased to starting prices of $25 [2] Customer Sentiment - Many customers expressed frustration over the rising prices, indicating that Walmart is no longer the affordable option it once was [4] - Some customers have reported seeing price tags removed or replaced with digital tags, raising concerns about potential real-time price hikes [4] Economic and Political Context - The discussion among customers has shifted towards political and economic factors, with many attributing rising costs to tariffs imposed during the Trump administration [5] - Walmart's CEO confirmed that tariff pressures are affecting costs and that the company has been forced to raise prices while attempting to keep others steady [6] Customer Demographics - Higher-income shoppers are increasingly turning to Walmart for deals, while lower- and middle-income customers are either switching brands or skipping purchases due to price increases [7] Supply Chain Issues - Even domestically produced products are affected by global supply chains, with increased costs for components and materials sourced from abroad [8]

Market Overview - Major indexes remained flat for the week ending November 14, continuing the weakness observed in November, with the small cap Russell 2000 retreating from its late October peak [1] - The tech-heavy Nasdaq also showed similar trends, indicating a broader market stagnation [1] Performance of Key Stocks - Among the "Magnificent 7," three stocks (NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple) performed well, while the other four (Amazon, Meta, Tesla, Google) experienced losses last week [4] - Notably, five of the Magnificent 7 reached their peaks between October 28 and November 11, suggesting a potential plateau in their performance [4] Economic Indicators - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has lost 25% of its staff, leading to uncertainty in the release of key economic data, including the jobs report for September and potentially the October inflation report [5] - The Federal Reserve is expected to have limited information for its December meetings, with market odds for an interest rate reduction now around 50%, down from 95% a month ago [6] Labor Market Conditions - Private sector data indicates a loss of over 11,000 jobs per week in October, with job cuts reported at 153,000, marking a 183% increase from September [10] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise to 4.5%, up from 4.3% in August [10] Consumer Sentiment and Spending - The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.3 in November, the second lowest in the series' history, indicating consumer distress [13] - Concerns about job security are high, with nearly 23% fearing job loss over the next five years and 43% in New York fearing loss within the next year [13] Credit Market Trends - Credit card delinquencies are at record highs, with 5.33% of outstanding balances now 30+ days past due, the highest level since 2014 [10] - Student loan delinquencies have reached 14%, reflecting broader financial strain among consumers [11] Economic Growth Projections - With consumption accounting for 70% of GDP, Q4 GDP growth is expected to be slight, and Q1 could potentially show negative growth if current conditions persist [14] - Financial markets appear to be pausing after significant gains over the past two years, possibly awaiting the realization of AI-related profits [15]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts aim to stimulate job creation amid a slowdown in the labor market, but experts express skepticism about their effectiveness in addressing underlying issues such as a shrinking workforce and the impact of artificial intelligence [3][4][9]. Labor Market Dynamics - The U.S. economy added only 22,000 jobs in August, with job losses occurring in June for the first time in four years, indicating a significant slowdown in job creation [2]. - The labor force participation rate was at 62.3% in August, a full percentage point below pre-pandemic levels, highlighting challenges in labor supply [1]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the current labor market situation as a "curious balance," where low unemployment persists despite fewer job seekers [2]. Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point in recent meetings, with potential for further cuts in December to stimulate hiring [3][10]. - Lower interest rates are intended to reduce borrowing costs, encouraging consumer spending and business expansion, which could lead to increased hiring [6][7]. Economic Implications - Fed officials are divided on whether to continue cutting rates to boost the job market or maintain higher rates to control inflation, which has exceeded the Fed's 2% target for five years [3][10]. - Some experts argue that rate cuts may not effectively address labor market weaknesses, suggesting that a lack of skilled workers could lead to inflation rather than job growth [9][11]. Consumer Behavior - High borrowing costs are currently hindering low- and middle-income families from making significant purchases, such as cars, which could further strain the economy [8]. - Fed Governor Christopher Waller supports a rate cut in December to alleviate financial pressures on households and prevent further deterioration in the labor market [8].

Market Analysis & Economic Outlook - Market selloff last week spooked investors, questioning the bull market's continuation [2] - Easy money from rate cuts and AI optimism were key market drivers, now under scrutiny [3][4] - White House anticipates real purchasing power to substantially accelerate in the first half of 2026 [11] - The market volatility is less likely to be the start of a big recession or a big market crash across all asset classes [23] Investment Strategies & Opportunities - International stocks are expected to outperform US stocks [27] - Humanoids and longevity are seen as areas with asymmetric returns [31][33] - Bitcoin is considered a potentially best-performing asset due to tokenization and clarity act [32] Economic Data & Consumer Sentiment - Purchasing power dropped by approximately $3,000 under Joe Biden's presidency but has increased by about $1,200 under President Trump [10] - 54% of Americans with incomes between $30,000 and $80,000 now have a taxable brokerage account [18] - Nearly 40% of 25-year-olds now have an investment account, up from 6% in 2015 [19] AI & Automation Debate - A politician proposes regulations to prevent companies from using AI to eliminate jobs [34] - Concerns raised about limiting technological evolution and its potential to create more value for workers [36] - AI is automating tasks, leading to increased efficiency, productivity, and profits for companies [42]

Core Insights - Financial conditions are expected to remain tight through 2026 due to persistent inflation and potential new tariffs that could further increase costs [1] Group 1: Budget Adjustments - Rising costs of essentials like groceries, utilities, and child care may indicate that budgets are outdated, necessitating regular reviews to align with new price realities in 2026 [3] - Inflation and new tariffs can diminish real purchasing power, prompting the need to track monthly leftover cash to ensure income keeps pace with rising costs [4] - Fixed expenses consuming more than 50% of take-home pay signal a need for reassessment, as high fixed costs limit savings and investment opportunities [5] Group 2: Lifestyle and Spending Habits - Lifestyle creep, characterized by increased discretionary spending that outpaces income growth, requires a comparison of current expenditures to previous years to identify necessary budget adjustments [6] - Over-reliance on credit or savings indicates a misalignment between budget and reality, necessitating a recalibration to avoid using debt for basic needs [7] Group 3: Tax Considerations - Changes in tax rules under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act for 2026 could impact net income, particularly for high earners and entrepreneurs, highlighting the importance of staying informed about new deductions and thresholds [8]