Core Viewpoint - Cheniere Energy (LNG) is experiencing a decline in stock price due to poor natural gas performance, with prices down approximately 2% and inventories exceeding estimates [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - LNG is currently trading at $227.58, down 0.8%, and is facing a potential fifth consecutive daily drop [1][2]. - The stock has previously recovered from a low of $190 in April but is struggling again this week [2]. - Historical data indicates that LNG has approached its 50-day moving average trendline five times in the past three years, with an 80% success rate of stock price increases averaging 2.4% within five trading days following those signals [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The natural gas sector has seen a smaller-than-expected decline in output and gas flows, contributing to the current market conditions [1]. - Options for LNG are currently considered affordable, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 29%, ranking in the 20th percentile of its annual range, indicating low volatility expectations among options traders [3].

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed sentiment on equities, with a notable improvement compared to previous bearish views, but still reflects uncertainty in the market [2][6]. Core Insights - Following the US-China trade truce, investors have significantly adjusted their recession expectations, with nearly 60% now assigning a 30% or lower probability of a recession occurring within the next 12 months, a stark contrast to the previous month where nearly half expected a 50% or higher probability [4][6]. - Despite improved sentiment, volatility is anticipated to remain elevated throughout the year, with 60% of respondents expecting the VIX index to reach 30 or higher by year-end [3][13]. - A majority of investors (70%) expect the S&P 500 to end the year above 5,800, a significant increase from only 25% who held this view last month [6]. Summary by Sections Market Sentiment - Risk sentiment has improved on the margin, but investors still expect more bouts of elevated volatility this year [2][13]. - 48% of respondents now expect the Fed funds rate to end the year above 3.75%, up from 31% last month [17][20]. Equities Outlook - The current sentiment on equities is mixed, with 36% bullish and 30% bearish [6]. - The S&P 500 is currently at 5,896, with expectations for year-end values significantly higher than previous estimates [8]. Interest Rates - Investors expect the next Fed rate cut to occur in September, with a slight bull steepening anticipated in the yield curve [20][24]. - 59% of respondents expect 2-year yields to be below 3.4% by year-end [20]. Currency Expectations - There has been a notable shift in sentiment regarding the euro against the dollar, with 46% expecting EUR/USD to end the year above 1.15, compared to only 22% last month [25].

Group 1 - Palantir Technologies Inc stock is experiencing resistance at peak call open interest levels and February highs following the recent first-quarter results [1] - The stock's post-earnings rebound has stalled around the 50% year-to-date level and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating potential for lower highs [1] - Short interest constitutes only 2.3% of the equity's available float, the lowest level since March, allowing room for short sellers to increase their positions [4] Group 2 - The peak call open interest at the 125-strike is acting as resistance, and a decline below $115 could attract shares towards the 100-strike [4] - The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) is 83 out of 100, indicating it has surpassed options traders' volatility expectations over the past year [5] - A recommended June put option has a leverage ratio of 5.5, which would double with a 15.8% drop in the underlying security [5]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive sentiment towards the market, suggesting opportunities for adding exposure, particularly in short-dated topside volatility strategies [2][3]. Core Insights - Volatility has decreased, allowing systematic investors to take a more bullish stance [2]. - Retail demand remains strong despite May typically being a month of outflows, indicating robust market support [3]. - Liquidity and market sentiment have improved, signaling a healing market environment [4][5]. - CTAs are projected to flip to a net long position in US equities, with expected purchases of approximately $14 billion over the next week [9]. - The report highlights significant short covering in US-listed ETFs and single stocks, particularly in large-cap equity and tech sectors [20][21]. Summary by Sections Liquidity - S&P Top of Book liquidity reached $9.83 million, significantly higher than April lows of $1.1 million and 28% above the year-to-date average [5]. CTA Positioning - CTAs have increased their long positions in US equities, with a projected net purchase of $14 billion, indicating a shift in market dynamics [9]. Retail Demand - Retail flows have remained strong, supporting the market post "Liberation Day" frenzy, with confidence bolstered by the absence of negative economic data [39][40]. Sentiment - Overall market sentiment has improved but remains at low levels compared to historical data, suggesting potential for growth [27]. Volatility Control Strategies - Volatility control strategies are expected to add length due to lower realized volatility, which is currently around 15, aligning with the one-year average [42][43].

Core Insights - The Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) is a valuable tool for options traders, measuring realized volatility against expectations priced into options over the past year [2][3] - A high SVS indicates that a stock has realized greater volatility than what its options have priced in, making it a potential target for options trading [3][4] - The analysis highlights stocks with consistently high SVS scores, suggesting they are more likely to yield positive returns for options traders [4][9] Summary by Category SVS Overview - SVS is calculated using hypothetical at-the-money straddle trades held until expiration, generating around 250 data points annually [2] - The scoring system combines average straddle return (40%), percentage of positive returns (40%), and percentage of straddles that doubled (20%) into a score from 0 to 100 [3] High-Performing Stocks - Stocks like Moderna Inc (MRNA) and Mondelez International (MDLZ) have high SVS scores, indicating they have consistently provided positive returns despite recent price declines [4][9] - The table of stocks with SVS above 90 shows that several sectors, including pharmaceuticals and food producers, have performed well [5] Consistent Positive Straddles - The analysis identifies stocks with the highest percentage of positive straddles, including MDLZ and MRNA, which have shown strong performance metrics [8] - The data suggests that stocks with a history of positive straddle returns are likely to continue attracting options traders [9] Growth Stocks and Risk Appetite - Risky growth stocks like HIMS and SoundHound AI (SOUN) are highlighted as potential targets for options traders looking for high returns, despite their volatility [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding risk tolerance when selecting stocks for options trading, especially in a post-earnings season environment [11]

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Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported assets under management of $1.4 billion for the quarter, with operating revenues of $2.1 million, reflecting a decrease of $490,000 or 19% from the same quarter last year [64][65] - The net loss for the quarter was $832,000, or $0.03 per share, which is an unfavorable change compared to a net loss of $35,000 in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year [67] - Operating expenses were $3 million, a decrease of $85,000 or 3%, primarily due to lower fund expenses [66] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The decrease in operating revenues was primarily attributed to declines in assets under management, particularly in the JET ETF [65] - Operational earnings consist of advisory services and other earnings, which include realized and unrealized gains and losses on investment holdings [65] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a significant apathy towards the airline industry despite strong performance from airlines like United, which was up 130% last year [18][36] - The gold mining stocks are trading at multiyear highs, yet there is a paradox where redemptions are occurring despite rising gold prices [40][42] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to increase exposure to the Bitcoin ecosystem and plans to deploy remaining capital back into Bitcoin and Hive, citing a unique growth opportunity [17][26] - The strategic buyback of stock is part of the company's two-pillar strategy to enhance shareholder value through increasing dividends and buying back stock [48][53] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the airline industry transitioning from a cyclical to a growth business, driven by increased travel demand post-COVID [23][20] - The company remains bullish on gold as an asset class, anticipating continued interest from central banks and a potential rise in gold prices due to modern monetary theory [30][34] Other Important Information - The company has maintained a strong balance sheet with high levels of cash and securities, and it has no long-term debt [67] - The current dividend yield is approximately 4.13%, with a total shareholder yield of 10.53% [50][53] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the company's outlook on the airline industry? - Management believes the airline industry will evolve into a growth business rather than remaining cyclical, supported by strong demand for travel [18][20] Question: How does the company view the current state of gold stocks? - Despite the paradox of rising gold prices and redemptions in gold stocks, management remains optimistic about the long-term potential of gold as a safe haven asset [40][42] Question: What are the company's plans regarding Bitcoin investments? - The company plans to increase its exposure to Bitcoin through a dollar-cost averaging program and investments in Hive shares, anticipating regulatory changes that will favor Bitcoin [26][17]

#Altcoins are volatile, but so is every great opportunity – stick to your strategy and adapt when needed ⚡ ...

When volatility hits the S&P 500 and most of its constituents, traditional investors tend to become afraid and back off from the market. While this is reasonable during uncertain times like today, born of President Trump's trade tariffs, the trade-off is that money (and a lot of it) is being left on the table of volatility’s opportunity. On the other hand, rather than stepping away and forgetting about the market, investors can exercise their trader muscle, which will serve them well throughout their career ...