What’s your biggest challenge in #crypto right now?🎯 Finding strong entries🧘 Staying patient🌪️ Handling volatility🔥 Avoiding FOMO ...

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Market Overview - The Nasdaq Composite has experienced a decline of approximately 13% in less than a month, which is a common occurrence with 10% market corrections happening roughly every two years [1][2] The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk's stock has fallen 53% from its 2025 highs, contrasting with major competitors like Meta Platforms and Amazon [3][5] - The company connects ad agencies with publishers, providing an independent alternative to larger platforms, which has contributed to its significant growth since 2016 [4][5] - Despite a recent earnings report that did not meet expectations, leading to a significant drop in stock value, the company is transitioning to a new AI-powered platform, Kokai, which may temporarily affect growth [5][6] - The Trade Desk's sales growth of 22% in Q4 2024, although below expectations, still outpaced the global advertising industry's growth rate [6][8] - The company holds a small market share of about 1% in the $1 trillion global advertising industry, indicating substantial growth potential [8] - Megatrends in connected television, premium video, and international expansion could drive The Trade Desk's stock back to new highs [9] Wingstop - Wingstop's stock has decreased by 31% from its 2025 highs, despite achieving its 21st consecutive year of same-store sales growth [10][11] - The market reacted negatively to a slight miss in sales expectations, reducing Wingstop's market capitalization from $9 billion to $6 billion [11][12] - The company is viewed as a strong buy due to its growth potential, with plans to quadruple its store count from the current 2,550 locations [13][14] - Wingstop's store count grew by 16% in 2024, with similar growth expected in 2025, alongside mid- to high-single-digit same-store sales increases [14][15] - The company's dividend yield has increased significantly over the past seven years, making it an attractive investment opportunity [15]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sell-off in the stock market, particularly the Nasdaq, presents a buying opportunity for investors, allowing them to acquire positions at lower prices and potentially generate higher returns when the market rebounds [1][9]. Group 1: ETF Overview - The JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPQ) aims to provide monthly income and exposure to the Nasdaq-100 with reduced volatility [3]. - The ETF employs a two-pronged strategy that includes an options overlay to generate income and an equity portfolio focused on Nasdaq-100 stocks [6]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - Over the past 12 months, the ETF's options strategy has yielded an income of 10.1%, significantly higher than other asset classes [3]. - The total return of the ETF has been 16.4%, slightly below the Nasdaq-100's return of 16.6% [4]. Group 3: Income Generation - Monthly cash distributions from the ETF are a key driver of returns, fluctuating based on the options premium income generated [5]. - The ETF benefits from increased volatility, which raises the price of options and allows for higher cash distributions during such periods [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - With the Nasdaq experiencing increased volatility, the ETF is expected to generate more options premium income in the near term, leading to higher cash returns [7]. - The ETF's value has declined by 11.5%, which is less than the Nasdaq's 12.6% decline, suggesting potential for higher total returns as the market recovers [8].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the **Interest Rate Derivatives** market, particularly focusing on the impact of tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainties on market dynamics [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Uncertainty**: The market is experiencing a "superposition" of states regarding tariffs, leading to significant policy uncertainty. This has resulted in declines in equity markets and increased volatility [3][4]. - **Market Performance**: The S&P 500 index has dropped to its year-to-date low of 5739 points, with the trade-weighted dollar at 113.3 and crude oil prices at $66.4 per barrel. High yield spreads have widened to 337 basis points [5]. - **Yield Forecasts**: UST strategists have revised yield forecasts lower, particularly at the front end, while expecting sustained upward pressure on term premium due to global phenomena such as deficit-funded defense spending in Europe [6]. - **Volatility Trends**: There is a notable increase in intraday volatility, reaching six-month highs, attributed to rising geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainties [28][32]. Trading Recommendations - **Long Term Premium Exposure**: The recommendation includes underweighting the belly of a 1Y forward 3s/7s/30s equal-weighted swap butterfly to gain exposure to rising term premium [14][62]. - **Swap Curve Flatteners**: Initiating 9Mx3M / 15Mx3M swap curve flatteners paired with 2Yx2Y / 3Mx10Y swap curve flatteners is suggested, as yields are expected to remain range-bound [15][63]. - **Volatility Positions**: A bullish stance on long volatility positions in longer expiries is recommended, while maintaining a cautious approach towards short expiry volatility due to rich valuations [36][37]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Depth**: There has been a significant decline in market depth, which is expected to persist as macroeconomic risks remain elevated [26][28]. - **Swap Spreads**: Swap spreads have been relatively quiet, with modest narrowing observed. The focus remains on maintaining exposure to narrower spreads in the belly and a flatter swap spread curve [45][50]. - **Implied Volatility**: Implied volatility has increased modestly across various structures, with a recommendation to buy 1Y forward 1Yx2Y volatility versus 1Y forward 1Yx10Y volatility due to recent cheapening [22][37]. Conclusion - The current market environment is characterized by heightened uncertainty due to tariff policies and macroeconomic factors, leading to strategic recommendations focused on volatility and term premium exposure. The emphasis is on navigating the complexities of the interest rate derivatives market while capitalizing on relative value opportunities.

Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategic overweight in Chinese stocks and gold, while recommending a lower allocation to commodities and overseas assets [2][5][13]. Core Insights - The correlation between Chinese stocks and bonds has turned negative, while the correlation in the U.S. has turned positive, reflecting differing inflation environments [1][3]. - Chinese stock volatility is expected to trend downward, whereas U.S. volatility may rise due to high inflation and interest rate policies [1][3]. - The decoupling of economic fundamentals has led to a decrease in correlation between Chinese and overseas assets, making Chinese assets attractive for risk diversification [1][4][5]. - The updated multi-factor model predicts that gold prices could rise to $3,000-$5,000 over the next decade, indicating a long-term bullish outlook despite short-term uncertainties [1][6]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw better-than-expected market performance due to lower-than-expected tariff increases and improved export diversification from China [1][8][9]. Summary by Sections Market Strategy - The report highlights three new asset allocation trends: the negative correlation of Chinese stocks and bonds, the positive correlation of U.S. stocks and bonds, and the decreasing correlation between Chinese and overseas assets [3][4]. Investment Implications - The strengthening negative correlation in China suggests that less bond allocation is needed to hedge stock risks, allowing for increased bond positions in portfolios [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing the allocation to Chinese stocks due to their cheap valuations and risk diversification benefits [5][7]. Gold Investment Perspective - The report maintains a positive stance on gold investment, having updated its multi-factor model to extend the analysis period and exclude U.S. Treasury yields, indicating a potential long-term price surge [6]. Chinese Stock Strategy - The report advocates for a strategic overweight in Chinese stocks, citing their cheap valuations and long-term growth potential in a low inflation and low interest rate environment [7]. Overseas Asset Strategy - The report advises a cautious approach to overseas assets, particularly U.S. stocks, due to their high valuation and the risk of mean reversion following significant past gains [11][12].

Market Overview - The current market environment is characterized by rising volatility, leading to a shift in investor behavior towards safer assets [1][2] - Institutional capital is seeking safety, as evidenced by the iShares S&P 500 Value ETF outperforming the broader S&P 500 by 1.5% in the past week [2] Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) - Cleveland-Cliffs stock is forecasted to have a 12-month price target of $16.43, indicating a potential upside of 73.26% [4] - The stock is currently trading at 47% of its 52-week high, suggesting that worst-case scenarios may already be priced in [4] - Analysts project a consensus price target of $16.5 per share, implying a net rally of up to 52.8% from current levels [5] - Wall Street earnings per share (EPS) forecasts expect Cleveland-Cliffs to deliver $0.05 in EPS by Q4 2025, a significant improvement from a current net loss of $0.68 per share [6] ASML Holding (ASML) - ASML stock has a 12-month price forecast of $937, representing a 32.3% upside potential [8][11] - The stock is currently trading at 66% of its 52-week high, indicating a favorable risk-to-reward setup for investors [10] - J.P. Morgan Chase has a higher valuation target of $1,100 for ASML, suggesting an implied rally of 55.2% [11] - The stock is seen as a strong player in the chipmaking sector, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence development [11] Rocket Companies Inc. (RKT) - Rocket Companies is currently trading at $13.47, with a price target of $13.83, indicating potential for growth [12] - A decrease in mortgage rates could lead to increased activity and earnings for Rocket Companies, as the mortgage market index is at a 1996 low [13] - The company trades at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 3.4x, significantly higher than the mortgage industry's average of 1.8x, suggesting that the market may be overvaluing its growth potential [14]

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