一二级套利

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超长信用债可以考虑逐渐止盈
Orient Securities· 2025-07-21 03:13
Group 1 - The report suggests that for most investors, it is time to gradually take profits on ultra-long credit bonds due to declining odds of capital gains, limited arbitrage opportunities, and weak coupon protection [6][14][18] - The performance of ultra-long credit bonds has been primarily driven by the compression of liquidity premiums in June, but this trend is expected to be difficult to sustain moving forward [7][14] - The report indicates that the current coupon advantage of ultra-long credit bonds is not significant, and their ability to protect against interest rate fluctuations is lacking, leading to a low probability of success for short-term holdings [12][18] Group 2 - The weekly review of credit bonds shows that the issuance volume remained stable, with a slight increase in maturity amounts, resulting in a net inflow of 452 billion yuan, which is a decrease compared to previous weeks [20][22] - The average coupon rates for newly issued AAA and AA+ rated bonds were 1.99% and 2.24%, respectively, indicating a mixed trend in issuance costs [20][21] - The liquidity of credit bonds continues to weaken, with a decrease in turnover rate to 1.76%, reflecting a return to a relatively low level [23]