行业 贵金属日评 日期 2026 年 01 月 07 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 2025 年 12 月美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 回落至 47.9%，这支撑了市场关于美联储将 继续宽松货币政策的预期，而特朗普再次表达对吞并格陵兰岛的意愿，流动性溢 价与地缘政治风险推动贵金属板块继续偏强运行，但伦敦黄金在 4500 美元/盎司 附近遭遇抛压，市场在 12 月非农就业数据公布前较为谨慎。我们认为 2025 年 12 月底的回调已经充分释放贵金属内部积累的调整风险，总体看在国际政经格局重 组、美联储宽松货币政策、全球经济增长 ...

Core Insights - The market for the CSI A500 ETF has seen a significant inflow of capital, with an increase of 830 billion yuan in the past month, bringing the total scale to 2,749.3 billion yuan as of December 23 [2][3][4] - Major fund companies such as Huatai-PB, Southern Fund, and Huaxia Fund have experienced substantial growth in their CSI A500 ETF products, with each increasing by over 100 billion shares in December [5][6] - The CSI A500 ETF has become a focal point for capital competition as year-end approaches, with several products achieving daily transaction volumes exceeding 10 billion yuan [4][12] Fund Performance - As of December 23, the leading CSI A500 ETFs by scale are Huatai-PB (436.1 billion yuan), Southern Fund (418.4 billion yuan), Huaxia Fund (350.5 billion yuan), and Guotai Fund (347.3 billion yuan) [5][6] - The Huatai-PB CSI A500 ETF regained its top position after a period of fluctuation, with a share increase of 138.4 billion since the beginning of December [6] - Southern Fund's product saw the largest share increase in December, reversing a downward trend from previous quarters [6][8] Market Dynamics - The CSI A500 index is viewed as an ideal tool for capturing structural market opportunities, particularly in technology and cyclical sectors, which has attracted significant capital inflows [12] - The lack of derivative products like futures and options for the CSI A500 index has limited large-scale investments from institutional players until recently, when rumors of upcoming derivatives have emerged [12] - The influx of capital has increased market liquidity, but there is a potential for a short-term retreat of this "rush capital" after year-end [12]

A股三大指数今日小幅上涨，题材概念股走强，稀有金属板块涨幅居前，西部材料涨停，中钢天源、广 晟有色涨超6%。受盘面影响，稀有金属ETF（562800）上涨2.31%。 今年以来，小金属价格持续走强，稀有金属板块强势爆发。值得注意的是，Wind数据显示，近半年 （截至12月18日），稀有金属ETF（562800）累计净流入资金逾20亿元。 有券商分析认为，金属行业的供需结构优化及流动性溢价或再次提振小金属板块的价格及估值弹性。从 数据观察，近15年以FED（美联储）为例的数轮扩表周期对大宗商品价格指数的溢出效应统计显示：小 金属在扩表周期内的平均涨幅区间为40%(锡)~88%(稀土)，小金属公司估值PE TTM的平均水平为53X， 而小金属公司股价实际相对沪深300的超额收益平均值为50%。扩表周期叠加各金属品种供需结构的持 续优化，小金属板块的估值及收益弹性有望释放。 此外，战略小金属储量有限、开采难度大且供给弹性不足，同时新能源、半导体、军工等下游需求快速 增长，供需矛盾加剧。在资源稀缺性持续凸显、需求结构升级及政策调控下，未来稀有金属价格有望延 续上行趋势，具备资源储量优势、技术壁垒及合规出口渠道的企业将 ...

Group 1 - The metal industry is experiencing a significant optimization in its supply-demand structure, with a weak supply cycle expected to continue until 2028, characterized by strong rigidity and vertical diffusion in the industry chain [5][24][25] - The transition to a liquidity cycle is anticipated to enhance the elasticity of metal prices, as global monetary policy shifts from a tightening to a loosening phase, with central bank balance sheet expansion likely to provide liquidity premiums for small metal varieties [5][49][50] - The report highlights that small metals such as rare earths, rubidium, cesium, lithium, antimony, molybdenum, and magnesium are expected to see improved fundamentals and price elasticity due to the optimized supply-demand structure and liquidity premiums [5][23] Group 2 - The rare earth industry is undergoing a structural optimization, with supply entering an accelerated improvement phase due to industry consolidation and regulatory changes, while demand is driven by sectors like electric vehicles and robotics [6][23] - The global rubidium and cesium market is entering a rapid expansion phase, with supply expected to grow significantly due to increased production capacity, while demand is driven by upgrades in consumption structure and emerging applications [7][8][23] - The lithium industry is projected to see a continuous improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with global lithium supply expected to grow from 1.231 million tons LCE in 2024 to 1.86 million tons LCE in 2027, driven by the growth of electric vehicles and energy storage systems [9][23] - Antimony is entering a strong prosperity cycle due to supply constraints and robust demand growth from the photovoltaic sector, with a widening supply-demand gap expected to push prices higher [10][23] - Molybdenum supply is expected to remain tight, with demand driven by the high-end transformation of the steel industry, leading to an upward price trend [11][23] - The magnesium industry is anticipated to enter a sustained tight balance state, with significant demand growth driven by automotive lightweighting and other emerging applications [12][23]

东兴证券发布研报称，全球货币政策转向宽松，地缘政治与经济政策不确定性提升了贵金属避险溢价。 在黄金传统金融市场定价层面上，黄金的避险溢价、汇率平价、流动性溢价及通胀平价四大核心要素均 在发酵，趋势易涨难跌；白银因工业需求强劲而供需缺口持续放大；铂金亦维持结构性短缺。 黄金：黄金价格或呈现趋势性的易涨难跌 黄金传统的纯金融属性定价方式显现弱化，而商品供需属性的定价方式明显强化，黄金金融属性决定价 格弹性而供需属性决定价格韧性。黄金供需已进入商品定价层面上结构性偏紧状态，价格将呈现趋势性 的易涨难跌，即供需基本面将决定黄金定价的底部中枢。全球矿产金供应已进入低增长阶段，矿金产出 成本提升与供给增速承压相印证，而黄金需求则呈现强韧性（央行购金形成的需求支撑）及强弹性（黄 金ETF投资的净流入提升）。近三年全球黄金年均消费量均值已升至约4616吨，其中央行购金连续三年 升至1000吨之上，推动黄金需求曲线右移20%以上并带动黄金现货溢价攀升。至2025年11月，中国央行 已连续十三个月增持黄金，累计净增量达到41吨。另一方面，随着利率环境的常态化回归，全球黄金实 物持仓ETF的年增长量或有望恢复至2016-2020年 ...

来源：中国能源网 东兴证券近日发布金属行业2026年度展望：从综合统计的数据观察，全球央行降息比例已由22年10月的 13.33%大幅攀升至25年10月的85.33%，全球央行净降息比例则由同期的-73.33%上涨至+86.08%。数据 的变化确定性地标志着自美联储24年9月的首次降息开启后，全球货币政策由紧缩周期向宽松周期的转 向。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资摘要： 黄金：黄金价格或呈现趋势性的易涨难跌。黄金传统的纯金融属性定价方式显现弱化，而商品供需属性 的定价方式明显强化，黄金金融属性决定价格弹性而供需属性决定价格韧性。黄金供需已进入商品定价 层面上结构性偏紧状态，价格将呈现趋势性的易涨难跌，即供需基本面将决定黄金定价的底部中枢。全 球矿产金供应已进入低增长阶段，矿金产出成本提升与供给增速承压相印证，而黄金需求则呈现强韧性 （央行购金形成的需求支撑）及强弹性（黄金ETF投资的净流入提升）。近三年全球黄金年均消费量均 值已升至约4616吨，其中央行购金连续三年升至1000吨之上，推动黄金需求曲线右移20%以上并带动黄 金现货溢价攀升。至2025年11月，中国央行已连续十三个月增持黄金，累计净增量达到41吨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating a favorable investment rating for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The global decline in real interest rates is expected to enhance the price elasticity of commodities, positively impacting the metal industry as monetary policy shifts from tightening to easing [5][6]. - The expansion of central bank balance sheets suggests a potential return to quantitative easing (QE), which historically has supported commodity price increases [6][24]. - High geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainties are driving up the safe-haven premium for precious metals, particularly gold [7][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Commodity Cycle and Liquidity - The shift in central bank balance sheets is facilitating the release of price elasticity in commodities, with a significant increase in the proportion of global central banks engaging in rate cuts from 13.33% in October 2022 to 85.33% in October 2025 [5][23]. - The current geopolitical risk index is at a historical high, which is expected to maintain the upward pressure on precious metal prices due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [7][33]. 2. Precious Metals Pricing Dynamics - Gold prices are anticipated to show a trend of being easier to rise and harder to fall, with supply-demand fundamentals establishing a strong price floor [8][41]. - The global gold supply is in a structurally tight state, with mining output growth slowing and production costs rising above $1500 per ounce [8][42][48]. - The silver market is projected to experience a widening supply-demand gap, driven by industrial demand growth in sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [9][10]. - Platinum is expected to maintain a structural shortage, with supply constraints and resilient demand from jewelry and industrial applications [11][12]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the cyclical, growth, and hedging value of the industry, highlighting specific companies such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold Mining, and Zijin Mining as potential investment targets [9][12].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, when there is no significant market catalyst and incremental funds have not entered the market, a strategy of going long on volatility can increase the returns of the convertible bond portfolio. The excess returns mainly come from risk - pricing compensation and the avoidance of the "volatility trap" [2][11]. - In the long - term, liquidity premium may be a relatively stable source of excess returns in the convertible bond market. With the expected liquidity easing, low - interest rates, narrowing credit spreads, and the structural rise of the equity market, the convertible bond market is expected to be in a "high - valuation" state for a long time, and the equity factor is expected to dominate convertible bond returns [3][14]. - The convertible bond market has been oscillating upward, maintaining stable trading volume, range - bound movement, and compressed valuations. In the industry dimension, sectors such as information technology, optional consumption, and finance have strengthened, while the energy and materials sectors have weakened. In the medium - term, although the supply of convertible bonds continues to shrink, the expected incremental funds are sufficient, and the convertible bond market is expected to have a new round of upward trends [1][10]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Convertible Bond Weekly Thoughts - From 2025/12/08 to 2025/12/12, the convertible bond market oscillated upward, maintaining stable trading volume, range - bound movement, and compressed valuations. Information technology (+0.72%), optional consumption (+0.48%), and finance (+0.18%) sectors strengthened, while energy (-1.93%) and materials (-0.59%) sectors weakened. Due to bond market adjustments, the valuation of debt - like convertible bonds contracted, while equity - like convertible bonds strengthened and their valuations expanded [10]. - In the short - term, as of 2025/12/12, the volatility style performed best in the past week. The average return of this style in the past week was about -0.17%, with a relatively controllable overall drawdown. Going long on volatility can bring excess returns from risk - pricing compensation and the avoidance of the "volatility trap" [11]. - In the medium - term, the release of relevant policies may bring incremental funds to the market. Since 2021, under neutral market conditions, the liquidity style has performed best with stable excess returns. Future liquidity easing and low - interest rates will support convertible bond valuations, and the convertible bond market is expected to move towards "strengthened equity attributes" [13][14]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Market Tracking 3.2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions - The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indices in different time periods, such as the performance of the Wande Convertible Bond Energy Index, Wande Convertible Bond Materials Index, etc., in the past week, two weeks, since September, one month, two months, half - year, and one year [18]. 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Securities - The report shows the top ten and bottom ten individual convertible bonds in terms of price changes in the past week [21]. 3.2.3 Convertible Bond Valuations - The report presents the valuation trends of debt - like, balanced, and equity - like convertible bonds, as well as the conversion premium rate valuation trends of convertible bonds with different parities [22][30]. 3.2.4 Convertible Bond Prices - The report shows the proportion trend of high - price bonds and the median price of convertible bonds [32].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that in the short - to - medium term, multiple factors are at play in the precious metals market. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and a weaker US dollar drive up the prices of gold and silver, but the cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the easing of international trade situation limit the upward momentum of gold prices. The London gold price is expected to fluctuate within the range of $3,880 - $4,380 per ounce for a longer period. In the medium - to - long term, factors such as central bank easing, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and currency system support the upward trend of precious metal prices. The intermediate bull market of precious metals that started in March 2024 is not over. In the next six months and one year, the price of London gold may rise to $4,500 and $4,800 per ounce respectively, and the price of London silver may rise to $58 and $63 per ounce respectively [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Analysis - **Intraday Market**: The support of New York Fed officials for a near - term interest rate cut by the Fed, weak US consumer spending and confidence data, and a rise in the Fed's interest rate cut expectation to over 80% along with a decline in the US dollar index below 100 have pushed up the prices of gold and silver. However, the cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the easing of international trade situation have curbed the upward momentum of gold prices. It is not advisable to over - pursue long or short positions at present [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: The US employment and inflation situation support the Fed to restart the interest rate cut process, and the interest rate cut may be larger than needed. The election of Kōmeitō's candidate for the Japanese prime minister and the global trade and currency system restructuring and geopolitical risks continue to provide demand for gold. The intermediate bull market of precious metals since March 2024 is not over. After the significant correction of gold and silver prices since late October, investors should watch for opportunities to go long again [5]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 947.69 with a 0.02% increase, the Shanghai Silver Index at 12,222 with a 0.81% increase, the Gold T + D at 941.20 with a 0.05% increase, and the Silver T + D at 12,205 with a 0.60% increase [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, all sourced from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - **Geopolitical Events**: Ukrainian President Zelensky is ready to advance a US - supported framework agreement to end the war with Russia, and Trump has instructed envoys to meet with relevant parties. There are only a few points of disagreement left in the negotiation [17]. - **US Fed News**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent is conducting the second - round interview for the new Fed chairman, and Trump may announce the candidate before Christmas. Bloomberg reported that White House economic advisor Hassett is the favorite, but the White House refuted this [17]. - **Economic Data**: US retail sales in September increased by only 0.2% after a 0.6% increase in August, lower than expected. The producer price index for final demand rebounded 0.3% in September, mainly driven by a 3.5% increase in energy costs and a 1.1% increase in food prices. The consumer confidence index in November dropped to a seven - month low [18].

Core Insights - Real World Assets (RWA) are becoming a hot trend, bridging traditional finance and the crypto world through tokenization of physical assets like real estate and art [2][3] - The market for tokenized assets is projected to reach $45 trillion by 2030, but current engagement levels are low, with many RWA tokens having fewer than 10 active addresses monthly [2][4] Definition and Market Overview - RWA refers to physical assets that are tokenized and entered into the blockchain, including financial assets like government bonds and tangible assets like real estate and art [3] - The tokenization of non-liquid assets could create a market worth $16 trillion, representing nearly 10% of global GDP by 2030 [3] Market Growth and Composition - As of mid-2025, $24 to $25 billion of RWA has been successfully migrated to blockchain, a significant increase from under $5 billion in early 2023 [4] - Private credit and tokenized U.S. government bonds dominate the RWA market, with BlackRock's BUIDL token valued at $2.42 billion and Ondo Finance's OUSG token at $1.76 billion, together accounting for nearly 20% of the market [4] Liquidity Challenges - Despite the impressive market size, liquidity remains a significant issue, with BlackRock's BUIDL token having only 85 holders and 30 active addresses monthly [6] - Tokenized real estate and art face severe liquidity constraints, often being illiquid "digital specimens" with minimal trading activity [4][6] Driving Factors Behind RWA Interest - The recent surge in interest for RWA is driven by yield differentials, with U.S. Treasury yields rising from 0.3% to 5%, attracting capital to safer, higher-yielding assets [5] - Traditional financial institutions are increasingly entering the RWA space, providing legitimacy and support for the market [5] Structural Barriers to Development - Regulatory challenges exist, as many RWA tokens are classified as securities, limiting market participation to accredited investors and complicating cross-border transactions [8] - The market is fragmented, with various decentralized exchanges and platforms creating liquidity "islands," hindering efficient price discovery [9] Future Development Pathways - A hybrid market structure combining centralized and decentralized elements may be the best approach, allowing for compliant issuance and trading of tokenized assets [12] - Emphasizing collateralized lending as a means to enhance liquidity, allowing RWA holders to access funds without selling their assets [13][14] Ecosystem Improvement Strategies - Regulatory innovation and the establishment of standardized asset disclosure and valuation frameworks are essential to reduce information asymmetry [15] - Industry self-regulation and the involvement of rating agencies can enhance market credibility and transparency [15] Investment Strategies - Investors should focus on liquid asset classes and compliant platforms, recognizing the inherent risks and diversifying investments across different RWA categories [16] - Advanced investors may consider participating in the foundational aspects of the RWA ecosystem, such as market-making or governance [17]