1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current bond market is in a pricing dilemma with long - term interest rates remaining flat, making band - trading difficult. Investors are turning to coupon assets. Seeking relatively cost - effective assets may be a better choice[1][10] - Focus on varieties and entities with large yield increases but slow repair processes during the July - November bond market adjustment - repair cycle, as they may experience a catch - up rally[2][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Credit Market Performance Analysis - From November 10 - 14, interest - rate bonds fluctuated narrowly, and the yield curve flattened. General credit bonds performed weakly with most credit spreads widening slightly. Bank secondary and perpetual (two - Yong) bonds had a catch - up rally, outperforming general credit bonds[9] - For general credit bonds, medium - to high - grade long - term varieties were severely affected and repaired slowly during the bond market adjustment. From July 7 to November 14, the yields of 7 - 15 - year AAA and AA+ urban investment bonds increased significantly by 25 - 40bp, and credit spreads widened by 6 - 10bp, with 30 - year spreads widening by 12 - 14bp[2][10] - Some private and perpetual bonds had weaker performance than ordinary bonds during the adjustment - repair cycle, with higher current variety spreads. There are opportunities to obtain higher coupons by sacrificing some liquidity[3][14] 3.2 Investment Opportunity Recommendations - For general credit bonds, pay attention to medium - to high - grade long - term varieties and some issuers of 2 - 3 - year or 3 - 5 - year credit bonds with large yield adjustments[2][12] - Focus on entities with excess returns in perpetual bonds. 37 entities were screened based on certain criteria such as implicit rating, bond stock, average yield, and variety spread[3][16] - Bank two - Yong bonds still have cost - effectiveness compared to general credit bonds. However, they face challenges due to the unimplemented new regulations on fund sales fees and are more suitable for accounts with relatively stable liability ends or those insensitive to drawdowns[3][18] - Three - year medium - to high - grade securities company subordinated bonds have a coupon advantage over the same - term and same - grade bank secondary capital bonds, suitable for accounts with low liquidity requirements[5][20] 3.3 Specific Bond Type Analysis 3.3.1 Urban Investment Bonds - From November 1 - 16, 2025, urban investment bond net financing was negative, and the outflow scale increased. The issuance rate dropped significantly to a historical low. In the secondary market, the 3 - 5 - year market cooled, and credit spreads widened slightly[26][27] 3.3.2 Industrial Bonds - In November, industrial bond issuance and net financing increased year - on - year. The 3 - 5 - year issuance proportion increased significantly, and the issuance rate declined across the board, with a larger decline in the 3 - 5 - year segment[34][35]

Fixed Income Research - In October, the issuance scale of credit bonds decreased slightly, with corporate bonds and medium-term notes increasing, while company bonds, short-term financing bonds, and targeted tools saw a decrease in issuance [3] - The overall credit bond yield declined, but the monthly average showed a mixed trend compared to September, with most credit spreads narrowing [3] - The market is expected to continue a downward trend in yields, with a cautious approach recommended for high-priced bonds, while focusing on the value of individual bonds [3][4] Fund Research - The total scale of public funds exceeded 36 trillion yuan, with a recent draft for performance comparison benchmarks released by the CSRC [5] - In the week from October 27 to October 31, the average return of equity funds was 0.20%, with a positive return ratio of 57.93% [6] - The ETF market saw a net inflow of 238.35 billion yuan, with significant inflows into stock ETFs [6][7] Financial Engineering Research - The A-share market saw most major indices decline in October, with the margin balance continuing to rise, reaching 24,784.70 billion yuan by the end of the month [8][9] - The financing balance increased by 900.17 billion yuan, while the average daily trading volume in the ETF market was 5,559.23 billion yuan [9][10] Industry Research - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is seeing positive developments, with the recent ESMO conference showcasing advancements in Chinese innovative drugs [11] - The steel industry showed significant improvement in performance, with a net profit of 218.53 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, compared to losses in the previous year [14][15] - The non-ferrous metals sector also performed well, with a revenue growth of 9.30% and a net profit increase of 41.55% in the first three quarters of 2025 [16][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, credit bonds are expected to show a volatile trend, but there are certain participation opportunities. It is recommended to seize the opportunity to buy medium - and high - grade varieties on dips. The ticket - coupon strategy is the main approach, and attention should be paid to the investment opportunities brought by the centralized position - building of amortized fixed - open bond funds [1][28]. - The supply of credit bonds in November may increase seasonally, but the incremental supply is not expected to be large. The demand side shows that bank wealth management still has increments, and the impact of the new public offering regulations on bond funds is expected to be limited [20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Credit Bond Market Review and Outlook 3.1.1 October Credit Bond Market Review - In October, credit bond yields declined across the board, with the decline more than that of the same - term interest - rate bonds. Medium - and long - term bonds performed better than short - term bonds, and general credit bonds outperformed financial bonds [11]. - By week, the performance of credit bonds was affected by factors such as holiday data, tariff frictions, equity markets, risk - aversion sentiment, policy expectations, and the restart of treasury bond trading. The yields and spreads of credit bonds showed different trends in each week [10]. - As of November 2, the full - caliber wealth management scale dropped to 31.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 6.1 billion yuan from the previous week. The net - breaking rates of all bank wealth management products and wealth management subsidiaries decreased [13]. 3.1.2 November Credit Bond Market Outlook - Supply: Seasonally, credit bond supply usually increases in November, but considering the continuous contraction of urban investment bond supply, the supply increment this year may not be large [20]. - Demand: Bank wealth management is expected to have positive growth in November, but the incremental growth may continue to narrow. If the new public offering regulations are mitigated, the impact on bond funds may be limited [20]. - Overall, credit bonds are expected to fluctuate in November. There are participation opportunities, but it is difficult to have an independent trend. It is recommended to buy medium - and high - grade varieties on dips. Pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the centralized position - building of amortized fixed - open bond funds [28]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Issuance Volume - In October 2025, the credit bond issuance scale was 1492.311 billion yuan, an increase of 161.8 billion yuan year - on - year and a decrease of 270.9 billion yuan month - on - month. The net financing amount was 310.974 billion yuan, a decrease of 132.1 billion yuan year - on - year and an increase of 140.4 billion yuan month - on - month [34]. - By type, the net financing amount of urban investment bonds was - 5.838 billion yuan, while that of industrial bonds and financial bonds was 300.042 billion and 16.77 billion yuan respectively [34]. 3.2.2 Issuance Cost - From October 1 to 31, the average issuance interest rate of credit bonds was 2.22%, a decrease of 8.4bp compared with September. The average issuance interest rates of industrial bonds and urban investment bonds decreased, while that of financial bonds increased [39]. 3.2.3 Issuance Term - From October 1 to 31, the average issuance term of credit bonds was 2.95 years, a decrease of 0.01 year compared with September. The average issuance terms of industrial bonds and financial bonds increased, while that of urban investment bonds decreased [48]. 3.2.4 Cancellation of Issuance - In October, 27 credit bonds were cancelled for issuance, with a cancellation scale of 10.687 billion yuan, a decrease of 26 bonds and 17.993 billion yuan respectively compared with the previous month [49]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Trading Volume - In October, the trading volume of all credit bond varieties except insurance sub - bonds decreased compared with the previous month. The trading volume of bank secondary capital bonds decreased the most, followed by bank perpetual bonds [54]. - By trading term, 1 - 5 - year urban investment bonds were more popular. The trading performance of industrial bonds varied by term, and the trading terms of bank perpetual bonds and some other bonds also showed different trends [54]. - By implied rating, the trading of urban investment bonds shifted from medium - rated to other ratings, while that of industrial bonds shifted to high - rated bonds [55]. 3.3.2 Trading Liquidity - In October, the turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds all decreased. By trading term, the turnover rate of 1 - 3 - year urban investment bonds decreased the most, and that of less than 1 - year industrial and financial bonds decreased the most [57]. 3.3.3 Spread Tracking - In October, the spreads of all urban investment bond varieties narrowed, with medium - and long - term spreads narrowing more significantly. The 5 - year AA - rated variety had the largest narrowing amplitude of 22bp [62]. - By region, most spreads in October narrowed, with the narrowing amplitude of each province not exceeding 5bp [66]. - In October, the spreads of AAA - rated and AA - rated industrial bonds in all industries narrowed, with the AA - rated bonds having a larger average narrowing amplitude [67]. - In October, the spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds narrowed, with medium - and long - term spreads narrowing more significantly [70]. - In October, most spreads of securities sub - bonds narrowed, while those of insurance sub - bonds narrowed across the board [72]. 3.4 October Hot Bonds Overview - The report selects the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of liquidity scores for investors' reference [74]. 3.5 Credit Rating Adjustment Review - In October, 7 bonds had their debt ratings upgraded, and there were no downgrades [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the product design, operation mechanism, and investment logic of credit bond ETFs. Credit bond ETFs achieve tracking through sampling replication of indexes, with diversified annualized returns and durations, catering to various investment needs. The PCF list, market - maker system, and repurchase system enhance the transparency and tradability of the products. Credit bond ETFs have advantages in risk diversification and liquidity, and offer arbitrage opportunities through price differences between the primary and secondary markets, but costs need careful evaluation [4]. - Credit bond ETFs are becoming increasingly important in asset allocation and liquidity management, with their institutional design and trading mechanisms continuously improving, gradually evolving from emerging products to widely - recognized investment tools [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Credit Bond ETF Product Design and Index Tracking - Credit bond ETFs are passive index funds that mainly track credit bond series indexes compiled by China Securities Index and China National Securities Index. They generally use sampling replication instead of full replication due to the large number of individual bonds and significant liquidity differences in the credit bond market. Sampling replication can control tracking errors, reduce transaction costs, and potentially achieve excess returns through active management [19]. - Different indexes have different selection criteria for component bonds, covering aspects such as issuance scale, credit rating, and remaining maturity. The annualized returns of the indexes tracked by credit bond ETFs have been positive in the past three years, showing a trend of decline, rise, and then decline since 2022. There are significant differences in duration characteristics among indexes, with some suitable for long - term and others for short - term investment [25][29]. 3.2 Transparency and Efficiency: PCF List and Market - Making Mechanism - The PCF list is the core tool in the subscription and redemption process, providing information on a basket of bonds and cash substitution arrangements. It includes information from T - 1 days (minimum subscription/redemption unit net value, cash difference, and fund share net value) and T days (estimated cash part, cash substitution ratio limit, etc.), helping investors understand the value and capital requirements of ETFs [36][37]. - The market - maker system consists of primary market - makers and general market - makers (or primary liquidity providers and general liquidity providers in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange). Market - makers have obligations to quote prices, and exchanges evaluate and incentivize them based on service quality. This system enhances the liquidity of credit bond ETFs in the secondary market [69]. - Credit bond ETFs are gradually included in the general collateralized repurchase system, which improves the efficiency of capital use. There are three types of repurchase methods in the bond market, each with different characteristics in terms of standardization, flexibility, and risk [73]. 3.3 Investment Logic: Allocation Value and Arbitrage Space - As a bottom - position allocation tool, credit bond ETFs are characterized by stability and efficiency. They can diversify credit risks, provide stable coupon income, and have strong liquidity, suitable for long - term holding. They can also be used for leverage financing to increase returns, and are an important part of diversified asset allocation [81][82]. - Credit bond ETFs can achieve arbitrage through primary and secondary market trading, including premium arbitrage and discount arbitrage. However, due to the lack of IOPV disclosure in credit bond ETFs, alternative methods are needed for estimation. Additionally, the uncertainty of coupon - replacement costs and the liquidity of component bonds need to be considered during the arbitrage process [91][94].

Group 1: Fixed Income Research - The issuance scale of credit bonds has increased to a historically high level, with credit spreads narrowing across all categories [3] - The net financing amount for credit bonds has decreased, with corporate bonds and company bonds seeing an increase, while mid-term notes and short-term financing bonds have decreased [3] - The overall yield of credit bonds has declined, indicating a continued recovery trend, with most credit spreads tightening [3] Group 2: Fund Research - The equity market indices have shown a recovery, with significant inflows into gold ETFs, particularly after a price correction [5][6] - The average return of equity funds has increased by 3.75%, with a positive return ratio of 91.33% [6] - The ETF market experienced a net inflow of 132.18 billion, with significant outflows from stock ETFs [7] Group 3: Company Research - TuoSiDa (300607) - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.688 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 24.49%, but a net profit of 49 million, a year-on-year increase of 446.75% [9][10] - The CNC machine tool business has shown significant growth, with a revenue increase of 44.29% year-on-year, driven by demand for components related to humanoid robots [11] - The company is expected to turn a profit in 2025, with projected revenues of 2.147 billion, 2.218 billion, and 2.449 billion for 2025-2027 [11] Group 4: Company Research - Sophia (002572) - The company reported a revenue of 7.008 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.46%, but a net profit of 682 million, a year-on-year decrease of 26.05% [13][14] - In Q3, the company achieved a net profit growth of 1.44%, reversing a trend of declining profits over the previous three quarters [14] - The company continues to implement a multi-brand strategy, with the core brand Sophia experiencing a revenue decline of 7.81% [15]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in market risk appetite, influenced by ongoing US-China tariff issues, has led to a recovery in bond market sentiment, resulting in a general decrease in credit bond yields [1][2]. Market Sentiment and Trends - The credit bond market has seen a general downtrend in yields, with credit spreads narrowing. From October 13 to 17, yields on municipal bonds with a maturity of 10 years or less fell by 1 to 6 basis points, while credit spreads narrowed by 1 to 7 basis points [2]. - Institutions are currently favoring short to medium-term bonds with higher coupon rates and a safety margin, particularly 3-year municipal bonds and 2 to 4-year bank capital bonds. Demand for long-term bonds has not recovered in parallel [1][2][3]. Institutional Behavior - Fund demand for credit bonds with maturities of 3 years or more remains weak. In contrast to the period from mid-March to early April, where funds increased their holdings of medium to long-term credit bonds, the recent weeks have seen a shift back to shorter maturities [3][4]. - The demand for credit bonds is expected to decline further in the fourth quarter due to a decrease in the growth of wealth management products, which typically see a larger increase in the first half of the year [4][5]. Future Outlook - The credit bond market is anticipated to continue a pattern of oscillation and consolidation in the fourth quarter, with institutions likely to reduce their credit bond positions due to a weak supply-demand structure [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that, given the current supply-demand imbalance, credit bonds are unlikely to yield excess returns compared to interest rate bonds, and liquidity issues may exacerbate risks during interest rate hikes [5][6]. Investment Strategies - Institutions are advised to maintain a cautious approach, focusing on short-duration bonds with higher coupon rates to identify structural opportunities. Specific recommendations include targeting municipal bonds with maturities of 1 to 3 years and yields above 2.2% [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF (511200) has shown significant growth in both liquidity and scale, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [1][4]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of October 23, 2025, the credit bond ETF has increased by 0.05%, marking a three-day consecutive rise, with the latest price at 100.59 yuan [1]. - The fund's average daily trading volume over the past week is 9.549 billion yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [1]. - In the last six months, the fund's shares have increased by 16 million, and its scale has grown by 16.202 billion yuan, demonstrating substantial growth [1]. Group 2: Profitability - Since its inception, the credit bond ETF has experienced a maximum consecutive monthly increase of five months, with a maximum increase of 1.62% [1]. - The fund has a weekly profit percentage of 66.67%, and the historical probability of profit over a six-month holding period is 100% [1]. - Over the past three months, the fund has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized return of 0.06%, ranking first among comparable funds [1]. Group 3: Fee Structure and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the credit bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [4]. - As of October 22, 2025, the fund's tracking error over the past two months is 0.005%, indicating the highest tracking accuracy among comparable funds [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Composition - The credit bond ETF primarily selects underlying bonds that are AAA-rated and have large issuance scales, with the majority being from high-quality central and state-owned enterprises [4]. - Currently, the fund consists of 338 underlying bonds with maturities ranging from 0 to 30 years, covering various durations and reflecting a characteristic of medium to short-duration credit bonds [4]. - Analysts recommend maintaining moderate participation in credit bond investments, focusing on medium to short durations while also including highly liquid long-duration bonds to avoid excessive chasing of price increases [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the repeated Sino - US tariff issues from October 13 - 17, the market risk appetite declined, and the bond market sentiment continued to improve. Credit bond yields generally decreased, and credit spreads mostly narrowed. Institutions remained cautiously bullish on credit bonds, preferring high - coupon and relatively safe varieties. However, due to factors such as seasonal patterns and the pending public fund fee regulations, this round of credit bond recovery may not be as smooth as the previous one. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on medium - and short - duration coupon - bearing credit bonds for both offense and defense [1][2]. - For general credit bonds, 1 - 3 - year AA and AA(2) urban investment bonds are recommended, which balance liquidity and coupon. For bank capital bonds, it is advisable to choose medium - and short - duration hedging varieties and avoid rushing to increase duration [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Urban Investment Bonds: Structural Recovery, Market Favors 1 - 3 - Year AA(2) Varieties - **Primary Market**: In October, the net financing of urban investment bonds remained low, but the issuance sentiment improved. The issuance rate reversed its upward trend and declined, with the proportion of issuance within 3 years increasing. From October 1 - 19, the issuance was 171.8 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 9.4 billion yuan. The weighted average issuance rates for bonds within 1 year, 1 - 3 years, and 3 - 5 years decreased by 8.2bp, 3.5bp, and 2.8bp respectively compared to September [30]. - **Secondary Market**: Intermediate - term bonds performed well, and the sentiment of long - term bonds also improved. Yields of 3 - 5Y bonds of various grades mostly decreased by 2 - 6bp, and credit spreads mostly compressed by 4 - 7bp. The yields of 10Y AA and above bonds decreased by 2 - 4bp. The 1 - 3 - year bonds had significantly increased trading volume, and the AA(2) varieties were favored by the market, with over 700 single - week transactions and an average low - valuation trading margin of 1.8bp [31][35]. 3.2 Industrial Bonds: Net Financing Increased Year - on - Year, Issuance Sentiment Recovered - **Primary Market**: From October 1 - 19, the issuance of industrial bonds was 301.8 billion yuan, with a net financing of 140.8 billion yuan, both increasing year - on - year. The proportion of long - duration bond issuance increased, and the issuance sentiment improved. The proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times rose from 14% to 20%, and the proportion of 2 - 3 times increased from 29% to 32% [38]. - **Secondary Market**: The buying sentiment weakened, with the TKN proportion decreasing from 77% to 72% and the low - valuation proportion dropping from 75% to 62%. The trading duration increased, with the trading proportions of 1 - 2 - year and 3 - 5 - year bonds increasing by 2pct and 4pct respectively, while the 1 - year trading proportion decreased by 9pct [40]. 3.3 Bank Capital Bonds: Yields Declined Across the Board, Trading Sentiment Weakened - **Primary Market**: In October 2025, Suzhou Bank issued 4.5 billion yuan of 5 + 5 - year secondary capital bonds (issuance rate not yet announced), and Weifang Bank issued 1.5 billion yuan of 5 + N - year perpetual bonds with an issuance rate of 2.90% [43]. - **Secondary Market**: Yields of bank capital bonds decreased by 0 - 7bp, and spreads narrowed across the board. The 2Y AA+ and below secondary capital bonds, 2Y and 4Y perpetual bonds performed well, with yields decreasing by 4 - 7bp and spreads narrowing by 7 - 8bp. However, the trading sentiment weakened. The TKN proportions of secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds decreased to 61% and 56% respectively, and the low - valuation proportions dropped to 65% and below [43][46].

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes that the 2-3 year medium-rated entities remain suitable for investment, balancing both defensive and offensive strategies. Current high-grade, short-duration spreads have compressed to very low levels, with some high liquidity central enterprises' valuations nearly indistinguishable from similar-term government bonds, indicating limited room for further compression [6][9]. - The report notes that the absolute yield attractiveness of high-grade, medium-term spreads has diminished, with most spreads now below 2.2%. There are still some medium to low-rated entities yielding between 2.15% and 2.3% that can be explored, as evidenced by recent performance [6][9]. - The report highlights that the credit bond market's attention is currently low, with a strong preference for controlling duration and maintaining liquidity, leading to weak buying power. The focus remains on 2-3 year medium-rated entities [6][9]. Group 2 - The weekly review indicates a rebound in issuance volume post-holiday, with net financing increasing to 184.7 billion yuan, marking a return to levels close to 200 billion yuan after a two-month period [11][13]. - The report states that credit spreads across various grades and maturities have continued to narrow, with the average spread compression around 1-3 basis points, while low-rated and long-term bonds remained stable [11][17]. - The report also mentions that the average credit spread for city investment bonds has narrowed by approximately 4 basis points, with minimal differentiation among provinces, while industry credit spreads have also contracted by 3 basis points [22][23].

Core Insights - The total scale of credit bond ETFs is 485.4 billion yuan, with a daily decrease of 410 million yuan, while the benchmark market-making ETF increased by 60 million yuan and the sci-tech bond ETF decreased by 470 million yuan [1] - The weighted median duration is 3.2 years, indicating the sensitivity of the ETFs to interest rate changes [1] Liquidity - The overall trading volume reached 193.9 billion yuan, with an average single transaction amount of 6.05 million yuan (benchmark market-making at 5.04 million yuan, sci-tech bonds at 6.72 million yuan) [1] - The median turnover rate is 39.8%, reflecting active trading in the market [1] Valuation - The median yield is 1.95%, with a median discount rate of -19.1 basis points (benchmark market-making at -40.9 basis points, sci-tech bonds at -17.9 basis points) [1] - The company bond ETF is positioned as a short-term bond ETF+, with a current duration of 1.96 years and a static yield of 2.00%, ranking 84th out of 557 in the market year-to-date return of 0.87% [1] Company Bond ETF Performance - As of October 10, 2025, the company bond ETF (511030) is trading at 106.12 yuan, with a 1-year cumulative increase of 1.93% [3] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 22.911 billion yuan, marking a new high in nearly a year [3] - The latest share count is 216 million shares, also a new high in the past six months [3] Fund Flows - The company bond ETF recorded a net inflow of 3.1836 million yuan, with a total of 66.8604 million yuan in the last four trading days [3] Historical Performance - Over the past five years, the net value of the company bond ETF has increased by 13.22% [3] - The highest monthly return since inception is 1.22%, with the longest consecutive monthly increase lasting 9 months and a maximum increase of 3.80% [3] - The annual profit percentage is 83.33%, with a monthly profit probability of 78.73% and a 100% probability of profit over a 3-year holding period [3] Drawdown and Fees - The maximum drawdown in the last six months is 0.28%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.06% [4] - The management fee rate for the company bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee rate is 0.05% [4] Tracking Accuracy - The tracking error for the company bond ETF year-to-date is 0.013% [5] - The ETF closely tracks the China Bond - Medium to High Grade Corporate Bond Spread Factor Index, which serves as a performance benchmark for investments in medium to high-grade corporate bonds [5]