新华财经上海1月8日电（记者杨溢仁）步入2026年一季度，宏观经济弱复苏态势延续，货币政策宽松基 调未改，叠加机构行为变化与政策落地影响，信用债市场正迎来兼具机遇与挑战的投资窗口。 业内专家普遍认为，一季度的债市环境对信用债投资较为有利，但需聚焦结构性机会，同时警惕流动性 与监管变化等潜在风险。 宽松托底基本面供需格局料改善 在大部分业内人士看来，一季度信用债投资的核心支撑逻辑源于宽松的流动性环境与温和的基本面修复 节奏。 来自申万宏源的研究观点指出，一季度基本面修复节奏温和，资金面易松难紧，债券利率有望启动下行 行情，或现年内低点，这一环境对信用债投资仍然有利。 就流动性供给来看，跨年结束后机构负债压力边际减轻，且央行大概率会延续呵护资金面的态度，为信 用债市场提供稳定的资金支撑。 "2026年初，央行对流动性管理的态度预计较2025年初更为宽松，资金利率贴近利率走廊下沿运行的概 率较大，这将显著提升信用债套息策略的安全边际。"一位机构交易员向记者表示，"不仅如此，信用债 供需格局的阶段性缓和也将进一步优化投资环境。" 回顾历史，根据华西证券测算，2021年至2025年1月（除2023年受理财赎回影响外）信 ...

2026 年度固收策略电话会议 20251230 摘要 预计 2026 年货币政策适度宽松，或有一次降息，时间窗口可能在春节 后一季度内，但 1 月降息概率较低。央行可能通过买断式逆回购或降准 保持资金宽松，以支持政府债券发行。 2026 年通胀预计回升，CPI 均值约 0.5%，PPI 均值约-1.1%，GDP 平 减指数约 0.3%，将使 10 年国债中枢上升近 10BP。若央行降息 10BP，全年利率中枢大致维持在当前 1.8-1.85%水平。 2026 年债券投资可采用 2-3 年信用套息策略，净 carry 约为 40BP 以 上，加上少量杠杆，预计回报可达 2-2.1%。关注低频、高胜率、高赔 率的单边策略，如降息预期升温时关注 5 年和 10 年利率债。 短期内关注短端国债、政金债和存单，重点关注两三年信用债和 5 年国 开债。若央行超预期降息或买债规模提高，可考虑持有长端活跃券，否 则进行短期高频交易。 预计 2026 年财政规模扩张，但幅度小于前一年。政府债供给压力集中 在 1-3 月、5-6 月和 8-9 月，央行可能在 1-2 月、5 月和 8 月保持流动 性支持。4-5 月和 7 月或 ...

科创债凸显独特投资价值。科创债ETF（551880）既能凭借高等级信用债底色抵御债市短期波动， 又能依托政策持续加码的红利，为投资者分享科技创新领域长期发展机遇，成为平衡风险与收益的优质 配置选择。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险 等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 资金面看，科创债ETF国泰（551880）近10日净流入超47亿元，关注科创债ETF投资机遇 兴业证券表示，对于投资者来说，科创债ETF的出现提供了能分享科创政策红利和保持相对稳健收 益的新工具。今年以来信用债ETF飞速发展，作为重要分支板块，科创债ETF频频受到监管直接支持。 科创债ETF可以实现"当日申赎"和"T+0"交易，有望解决信用债流动性不足的痛点；降低了债券投 资门槛，有利于吸引小微机构和个人投资者更多参与科创债市场；便捷提供一篮子高等级科创债，降低 研究成本、解决分散投资困难等问题。 每日经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The seminar titled "Debt Starts a New Journey, Building Future Momentum" aims to explore the landscape of the credit bond market in 2026, focusing on opportunities and challenges in the new era of China's financial market [3]. Group 1: Seminar Structure and Participation - The seminar was held in three locations: Beijing, Tianjin, and Chengdu, featuring a main venue where insights were shared by China Construction Bank, Wind Information, and CITIC Securities [5]. - Over 20 financial market institutions participated, including leaders from various investment and financing organizations, discussing macroeconomic conditions and the development of the credit bond market [5]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Trends - The Deputy General Manager of the Investment Banking Department at China Construction Bank, Ma Lian, analyzed the current fixed income market, highlighting the deep adjustments in the global financial landscape and the transition of the domestic economy towards high-quality development [7]. - The seminar emphasized the bond market's role in serving the real economy, facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges, with a focus on green, technological innovation, securitization, and cross-border bond sectors [7]. Group 3: Research Findings and Investment Strategies - Wind's Vice President, Jin Jian, shared insights from a joint bond market survey, indicating that under a backdrop of moderate economic growth and low interest rates, technology innovation bonds are the top investment choice in the credit bond sector [8]. - The survey revealed that over 80% of respondents believe that the coupon advantage of credit bonds will become more pronounced in a low-interest environment, leading to an increased allocation in investment portfolios [8]. - CITIC's Chief Analyst for Credit Bonds, Li Han, projected a volatile bond market in 2026, with a slight upward trend in interest rates and a focus on high-rated short-duration bonds for defensive advantages [8]. Group 4: Future Collaboration - China Construction Bank and Wind Information have a long-standing partnership, having launched various bond indices and tools since 2017, with plans for closer collaboration to enhance services for market investors and promote the development of China's bond market [9].

2025年债券市场"稳健中藏机遇"，信用债不仅成为机构配置的"香饽饽"，个人投资者也纷纷加 码。2025年债市发生了哪些关键变化？2026年债券市场该怎么投？还能继续拥抱"稳稳的幸 福"吗？今年火爆的科创债ETF，普通投资者该怎么选？ 2025年债券市场 本期《投资热点说》特别邀请到鹏华基金固收领域的专家——鹏华基金现金投资部副总经理张佳 蕾、现金投资部基金经理王中兴， 深度拆解2026年债券投资新机遇和新选择！ （点击图片查看精彩直播回看） 访谈金句 张佳蕾：与场外债券指数产品相比，科创债 ETF在产品设计上具备一些特点和优势：交易便捷，申赎高 效。第二，持仓高度透明，便于穿透管理。第三，一键配置科创债主题。第四，可质押融资，资金使用效 率更高。 王中兴：我们认为 2026年债券市场的核心机会将主要围绕"确定性"和"收益增厚"两条主线展开，具体体现 在以下三大领域：第一，中高等级信用债的票息价值领域。第二，具有政策红利的主题债券领域。第三， 利率债的波段交易性机会。 张佳蕾：我建议将债券指数产品作为长期配置的"压舱石"，而将优秀的主动型债基视为可能的收益增强选 择 王中兴：主动管理是 "艺术"，依赖基金经理 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The report highlights a divergence in the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts, with a 70% market expectation for a cut in December, although the actual impact may be similar whether it occurs in December or January [3][4] - In the U.S., retail sales showed a slowdown, particularly in the automotive sector, while investment in AI-related fields continues to support economic growth [3] - Domestic industrial profits have declined, with a notable drop in profits for mid and downstream industries, while upstream sectors benefited from stable raw material prices [4] Fixed Income Research - The report indicates a downward trend in the average issuance guidance rates for credit bonds in 2025, with a decrease of 151 basis points to 39 basis points compared to 2024 [5][7] - Credit bond issuance in 2025 decreased compared to the previous year, but net financing increased, indicating a shift in market dynamics [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of liquidity in the bond market, with a focus on the "debt and development" narrative, suggesting that credit risk is perceived to be low [7][8] Industry Research - The report discusses the State Council's initiative to promote provincial-level coordination of basic medical insurance, enhancing the system's security capabilities [13][17] - Recent FDA approvals for innovative treatments, such as BeiGene's Sotigalimab for lymphoma, highlight the ongoing advancements in the biopharmaceutical sector [14][15] - The report notes a decline in the SW pharmaceutical index, with a current P/E ratio of 51.78, indicating a significant premium over the CSI 300 index [16] - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in the innovative drug sector, particularly in diagnostics, vaccines, and related pharmaceutical companies [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current bond market is in a pricing dilemma with long - term interest rates remaining flat, making band - trading difficult. Investors are turning to coupon assets. Seeking relatively cost - effective assets may be a better choice[1][10] - Focus on varieties and entities with large yield increases but slow repair processes during the July - November bond market adjustment - repair cycle, as they may experience a catch - up rally[2][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Credit Market Performance Analysis - From November 10 - 14, interest - rate bonds fluctuated narrowly, and the yield curve flattened. General credit bonds performed weakly with most credit spreads widening slightly. Bank secondary and perpetual (two - Yong) bonds had a catch - up rally, outperforming general credit bonds[9] - For general credit bonds, medium - to high - grade long - term varieties were severely affected and repaired slowly during the bond market adjustment. From July 7 to November 14, the yields of 7 - 15 - year AAA and AA+ urban investment bonds increased significantly by 25 - 40bp, and credit spreads widened by 6 - 10bp, with 30 - year spreads widening by 12 - 14bp[2][10] - Some private and perpetual bonds had weaker performance than ordinary bonds during the adjustment - repair cycle, with higher current variety spreads. There are opportunities to obtain higher coupons by sacrificing some liquidity[3][14] 3.2 Investment Opportunity Recommendations - For general credit bonds, pay attention to medium - to high - grade long - term varieties and some issuers of 2 - 3 - year or 3 - 5 - year credit bonds with large yield adjustments[2][12] - Focus on entities with excess returns in perpetual bonds. 37 entities were screened based on certain criteria such as implicit rating, bond stock, average yield, and variety spread[3][16] - Bank two - Yong bonds still have cost - effectiveness compared to general credit bonds. However, they face challenges due to the unimplemented new regulations on fund sales fees and are more suitable for accounts with relatively stable liability ends or those insensitive to drawdowns[3][18] - Three - year medium - to high - grade securities company subordinated bonds have a coupon advantage over the same - term and same - grade bank secondary capital bonds, suitable for accounts with low liquidity requirements[5][20] 3.3 Specific Bond Type Analysis 3.3.1 Urban Investment Bonds - From November 1 - 16, 2025, urban investment bond net financing was negative, and the outflow scale increased. The issuance rate dropped significantly to a historical low. In the secondary market, the 3 - 5 - year market cooled, and credit spreads widened slightly[26][27] 3.3.2 Industrial Bonds - In November, industrial bond issuance and net financing increased year - on - year. The 3 - 5 - year issuance proportion increased significantly, and the issuance rate declined across the board, with a larger decline in the 3 - 5 - year segment[34][35]

Fixed Income Research - In October, the issuance scale of credit bonds decreased slightly, with corporate bonds and medium-term notes increasing, while company bonds, short-term financing bonds, and targeted tools saw a decrease in issuance [3] - The overall credit bond yield declined, but the monthly average showed a mixed trend compared to September, with most credit spreads narrowing [3] - The market is expected to continue a downward trend in yields, with a cautious approach recommended for high-priced bonds, while focusing on the value of individual bonds [3][4] Fund Research - The total scale of public funds exceeded 36 trillion yuan, with a recent draft for performance comparison benchmarks released by the CSRC [5] - In the week from October 27 to October 31, the average return of equity funds was 0.20%, with a positive return ratio of 57.93% [6] - The ETF market saw a net inflow of 238.35 billion yuan, with significant inflows into stock ETFs [6][7] Financial Engineering Research - The A-share market saw most major indices decline in October, with the margin balance continuing to rise, reaching 24,784.70 billion yuan by the end of the month [8][9] - The financing balance increased by 900.17 billion yuan, while the average daily trading volume in the ETF market was 5,559.23 billion yuan [9][10] Industry Research - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is seeing positive developments, with the recent ESMO conference showcasing advancements in Chinese innovative drugs [11] - The steel industry showed significant improvement in performance, with a net profit of 218.53 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, compared to losses in the previous year [14][15] - The non-ferrous metals sector also performed well, with a revenue growth of 9.30% and a net profit increase of 41.55% in the first three quarters of 2025 [16][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, credit bonds are expected to show a volatile trend, but there are certain participation opportunities. It is recommended to seize the opportunity to buy medium - and high - grade varieties on dips. The ticket - coupon strategy is the main approach, and attention should be paid to the investment opportunities brought by the centralized position - building of amortized fixed - open bond funds [1][28]. - The supply of credit bonds in November may increase seasonally, but the incremental supply is not expected to be large. The demand side shows that bank wealth management still has increments, and the impact of the new public offering regulations on bond funds is expected to be limited [20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Credit Bond Market Review and Outlook 3.1.1 October Credit Bond Market Review - In October, credit bond yields declined across the board, with the decline more than that of the same - term interest - rate bonds. Medium - and long - term bonds performed better than short - term bonds, and general credit bonds outperformed financial bonds [11]. - By week, the performance of credit bonds was affected by factors such as holiday data, tariff frictions, equity markets, risk - aversion sentiment, policy expectations, and the restart of treasury bond trading. The yields and spreads of credit bonds showed different trends in each week [10]. - As of November 2, the full - caliber wealth management scale dropped to 31.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 6.1 billion yuan from the previous week. The net - breaking rates of all bank wealth management products and wealth management subsidiaries decreased [13]. 3.1.2 November Credit Bond Market Outlook - Supply: Seasonally, credit bond supply usually increases in November, but considering the continuous contraction of urban investment bond supply, the supply increment this year may not be large [20]. - Demand: Bank wealth management is expected to have positive growth in November, but the incremental growth may continue to narrow. If the new public offering regulations are mitigated, the impact on bond funds may be limited [20]. - Overall, credit bonds are expected to fluctuate in November. There are participation opportunities, but it is difficult to have an independent trend. It is recommended to buy medium - and high - grade varieties on dips. Pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the centralized position - building of amortized fixed - open bond funds [28]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Issuance Volume - In October 2025, the credit bond issuance scale was 1492.311 billion yuan, an increase of 161.8 billion yuan year - on - year and a decrease of 270.9 billion yuan month - on - month. The net financing amount was 310.974 billion yuan, a decrease of 132.1 billion yuan year - on - year and an increase of 140.4 billion yuan month - on - month [34]. - By type, the net financing amount of urban investment bonds was - 5.838 billion yuan, while that of industrial bonds and financial bonds was 300.042 billion and 16.77 billion yuan respectively [34]. 3.2.2 Issuance Cost - From October 1 to 31, the average issuance interest rate of credit bonds was 2.22%, a decrease of 8.4bp compared with September. The average issuance interest rates of industrial bonds and urban investment bonds decreased, while that of financial bonds increased [39]. 3.2.3 Issuance Term - From October 1 to 31, the average issuance term of credit bonds was 2.95 years, a decrease of 0.01 year compared with September. The average issuance terms of industrial bonds and financial bonds increased, while that of urban investment bonds decreased [48]. 3.2.4 Cancellation of Issuance - In October, 27 credit bonds were cancelled for issuance, with a cancellation scale of 10.687 billion yuan, a decrease of 26 bonds and 17.993 billion yuan respectively compared with the previous month [49]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Trading Volume - In October, the trading volume of all credit bond varieties except insurance sub - bonds decreased compared with the previous month. The trading volume of bank secondary capital bonds decreased the most, followed by bank perpetual bonds [54]. - By trading term, 1 - 5 - year urban investment bonds were more popular. The trading performance of industrial bonds varied by term, and the trading terms of bank perpetual bonds and some other bonds also showed different trends [54]. - By implied rating, the trading of urban investment bonds shifted from medium - rated to other ratings, while that of industrial bonds shifted to high - rated bonds [55]. 3.3.2 Trading Liquidity - In October, the turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds all decreased. By trading term, the turnover rate of 1 - 3 - year urban investment bonds decreased the most, and that of less than 1 - year industrial and financial bonds decreased the most [57]. 3.3.3 Spread Tracking - In October, the spreads of all urban investment bond varieties narrowed, with medium - and long - term spreads narrowing more significantly. The 5 - year AA - rated variety had the largest narrowing amplitude of 22bp [62]. - By region, most spreads in October narrowed, with the narrowing amplitude of each province not exceeding 5bp [66]. - In October, the spreads of AAA - rated and AA - rated industrial bonds in all industries narrowed, with the AA - rated bonds having a larger average narrowing amplitude [67]. - In October, the spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds narrowed, with medium - and long - term spreads narrowing more significantly [70]. - In October, most spreads of securities sub - bonds narrowed, while those of insurance sub - bonds narrowed across the board [72]. 3.4 October Hot Bonds Overview - The report selects the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of liquidity scores for investors' reference [74]. 3.5 Credit Rating Adjustment Review - In October, 7 bonds had their debt ratings upgraded, and there were no downgrades [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the product design, operation mechanism, and investment logic of credit bond ETFs. Credit bond ETFs achieve tracking through sampling replication of indexes, with diversified annualized returns and durations, catering to various investment needs. The PCF list, market - maker system, and repurchase system enhance the transparency and tradability of the products. Credit bond ETFs have advantages in risk diversification and liquidity, and offer arbitrage opportunities through price differences between the primary and secondary markets, but costs need careful evaluation [4]. - Credit bond ETFs are becoming increasingly important in asset allocation and liquidity management, with their institutional design and trading mechanisms continuously improving, gradually evolving from emerging products to widely - recognized investment tools [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Credit Bond ETF Product Design and Index Tracking - Credit bond ETFs are passive index funds that mainly track credit bond series indexes compiled by China Securities Index and China National Securities Index. They generally use sampling replication instead of full replication due to the large number of individual bonds and significant liquidity differences in the credit bond market. Sampling replication can control tracking errors, reduce transaction costs, and potentially achieve excess returns through active management [19]. - Different indexes have different selection criteria for component bonds, covering aspects such as issuance scale, credit rating, and remaining maturity. The annualized returns of the indexes tracked by credit bond ETFs have been positive in the past three years, showing a trend of decline, rise, and then decline since 2022. There are significant differences in duration characteristics among indexes, with some suitable for long - term and others for short - term investment [25][29]. 3.2 Transparency and Efficiency: PCF List and Market - Making Mechanism - The PCF list is the core tool in the subscription and redemption process, providing information on a basket of bonds and cash substitution arrangements. It includes information from T - 1 days (minimum subscription/redemption unit net value, cash difference, and fund share net value) and T days (estimated cash part, cash substitution ratio limit, etc.), helping investors understand the value and capital requirements of ETFs [36][37]. - The market - maker system consists of primary market - makers and general market - makers (or primary liquidity providers and general liquidity providers in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange). Market - makers have obligations to quote prices, and exchanges evaluate and incentivize them based on service quality. This system enhances the liquidity of credit bond ETFs in the secondary market [69]. - Credit bond ETFs are gradually included in the general collateralized repurchase system, which improves the efficiency of capital use. There are three types of repurchase methods in the bond market, each with different characteristics in terms of standardization, flexibility, and risk [73]. 3.3 Investment Logic: Allocation Value and Arbitrage Space - As a bottom - position allocation tool, credit bond ETFs are characterized by stability and efficiency. They can diversify credit risks, provide stable coupon income, and have strong liquidity, suitable for long - term holding. They can also be used for leverage financing to increase returns, and are an important part of diversified asset allocation [81][82]. - Credit bond ETFs can achieve arbitrage through primary and secondary market trading, including premium arbitrage and discount arbitrage. However, due to the lack of IOPV disclosure in credit bond ETFs, alternative methods are needed for estimation. Additionally, the uncertainty of coupon - replacement costs and the liquidity of component bonds need to be considered during the arbitrage process [91][94].