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天目湖(603136):25Q3点评报告:营销投放影响利润,远期新项目落地有望贡献增量
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-11-02 09:12
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that marketing investments are impacting profits, but the upcoming new projects are expected to contribute to revenue growth [1] - The company is focusing on building a one-stop destination brand and diversifying sales channels to enhance competitiveness [7] - The termination of the Lion Kingdom project has been noted, along with the ongoing progress of new projects that are anticipated to drive growth [7] Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 140 million yuan in Q3 2025, a decrease of 1.23% year-on-year, and a net profit of 29 million yuan, down 13.19% year-on-year [7] - For the period from Q1 to Q3 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 386 million yuan, a decline of 4.65% year-on-year, with a net profit of 83 million yuan, down 2.54% year-on-year [7] - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 536.20 million yuan, 519.58 million yuan, 561.77 million yuan, and 607.39 million yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of -14.87%, -3.10%, +8.12%, and +8.12% [3][8] - The projected net profits for the same years are 104.66 million yuan, 108.08 million yuan, 124.07 million yuan, and 134.70 million yuan, with growth rates of -29.67%, +3.27%, +14.80%, and +8.56% respectively [3][8] Key Projects and Developments - The company is advancing the planning and construction of the Nanshan Xiaozhai Phase II project and has completed the conceptual planning for the Yushui Hot Spring Phase III expansion project and the Pingqiao Leisure Deep Experience Area [7] - The company aims to strengthen its brand competitiveness by enhancing its one-stop destination advantages and optimizing online operations through a multi-platform sales strategy [7]
天目湖(603136):稳中有进 1Q25利润改善显弹性
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-01 06:32
Core Viewpoint - The company's Q1 2025 net profit exceeded previous expectations, while 2024 revenue and profit were slightly below prior forecasts. The company aims for aggressive targets in 2025, focusing on the execution pace and effectiveness of new projects [1] Investment Highlights - The forecasted EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.51, 0.54, and 0.65 yuan respectively. Considering the industry average PE of 34 for 2025, the company is assigned a 30X PE valuation, raising the target price to 15.3 yuan and maintaining a buy rating [2] - 2024 performance was slightly below expectations, with revenue of 536 million yuan (down 14.87%) and net profit of 105 million yuan (down 28.80%). The decline was attributed to operational disruptions from hotel renovations and rigid cost pressures [2] - Q4 2024 revenue was 132 million yuan, down 6.9% quarter-on-quarter and down 15.2% year-on-year, with net profit of 19 million yuan, down 41.5% quarter-on-quarter and down 28.6% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue was 105 million yuan (down 1.6%), but net profit rose to 14 million yuan (up 26.45%) [2] Core Scenic Areas and Hotel Performance - Revenue from core scenic areas in 2024 was 282 million yuan (down 13.0%), with a gross margin of 70.4% (down 0.8 percentage points). Hotel revenue was 159 million yuan (down 23.1%), with a gross margin of 21.4% (down 8.5 percentage points) [3] - The company is enhancing growth through the renovation and new construction of scenic areas, such as the Nanshan Xiaozhai Phase II project, to improve brand appeal and market competitiveness [3] 2025 Operational Plan - The company plans to achieve revenue of 580 million yuan and profit of 149 million yuan in 2025, focusing on innovative operations, quality improvement, and project development to leverage its one-stop tourism destination advantage [3]