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2025年中国外卖市场现状报告-MCR嘉世咨询
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-23 01:35
Market Size and Structure Characteristics - The online food delivery market in China is projected to reach CNY 16,357 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, and a user base of 553 million, accounting for 50.3% of internet users [1][18] - The market exhibits a significant "Matthew effect," with the restaurant chain rate increasing from 35% in 2020 to 50% in 2025, indicating that chain brands dominate due to supply chain and standardization advantages [1][18] - Lower-tier cities are becoming the main growth driver, with over 60% of users in these markets ordering takeout more than three times a week [1][30] Platform Competition Landscape - The market is characterized by a "dual oligopoly" structure, with Meituan and Ele.me holding a combined market share of 92%, where Meituan accounts for 70% and Ele.me for 30% [1][21] - JD.com is entering the market in 2025 with a "zero commission" policy to attract merchants, prompting Meituan and Ele.me to adjust their commission strategies [1][23] - Vertical platforms like "Run Fast" are focusing on local services in townships, shifting competition from price wars to differentiated services [1][22] Category Expansion and Consumer Upgrade - The delivery category is expanding from traditional food to include fresh produce, pharmaceuticals, and electronics, reflecting a trend towards "instant delivery of everything" [1][26] - Healthy meal orders are expected to rise from 12% in 2020 to 25% in 2025, with pre-made dishes like Hema's "30-minute banquet package" achieving sales of over 800,000 during the Spring Festival [1][26] - Low-frequency high-value scenarios, such as late-night orders, are growing at a rate of 15%, with Meituan testing "home service + delivery" combo packages [1][26] Technology-Driven Efficiency Improvement - AI and big data are core drivers, with Ele.me's "Ark" algorithm reducing delivery times by 43%, and Meituan's drone delivery costs decreasing by 37% [2][4] - The application of blockchain technology in food safety traceability has led to a 62% reduction in complaint rates for JD Fresh's "one code traceability" system [2][4] - The penetration rate of green packaging has increased from 30% to 65%, with costs of eco-friendly materials dropping by 40%, promoting industry transformation towards sustainability [2][4] Business Model and Regulatory Changes - The commission model is facing challenges, with JD's zero-commission strategy prompting a reevaluation of profitability models across the industry [3][34] - Rider rights protection has become a focal point, with JD and Meituan beginning to pay social insurance for riders, benefiting an estimated one million riders at an annual cost of approximately CNY 13 billion [3][40] - Regulatory measures are tightening, with the Supreme Court clarifying labor relationship standards and the market regulator enhancing food safety and anti-monopoly measures [3][40] Future Trend Outlook - The market is expected to exhibit four major trends: community and personalized services, omnichannel integration, deep technological empowerment, and sustainable development [4][4] - By 2027, the market size is projected to reach CNY 19,567 billion, with growth driven by lower-tier markets, technological innovation, and diversified services [4][4]