Core Insights - The current state of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the entire cryptocurrency market is identified as a typical second wave capitulation phase in the ongoing bull market cycle [1][3] - This capitulation phase follows a significant B wave correction, where market sentiment is at a low point, leading investors to abandon positions before a parabolic rise [1][3] Market Analysis - Henrik Zeberg notes that capitulation is an emotional adjustment before the final phase, indicating that this is the most uncomfortable time during a bull market [3] - Bitcoin recently experienced a brief drop to around $114,000, currently trading at approximately $108,000, near its 200-day moving average [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 40, suggesting panic and weakness in the market, but a structural collapse has not yet occurred [3] - Historically, accumulation phases before rebounds often exhibit similar conditions [3] Future Projections - Zeberg anticipates that the next phase, the 3(4)-5 wave, will lead to the most explosive market movements to date, fueled by new liquidity and risk appetite [3] - Ethereum is expected to experience a vertical price increase, potentially reaching $6,000, $7,500, $10,000, or even $12,000, while Bitcoin's price could exceed $160,000 [3] - This phase is described as the "end of everything bubble," preceding a large-scale deflationary collapse [3] - Market sentiment at the peak is expected to emit contrary signals, indicating that euphoria may obscure warning signs [3] Market Cleanup - The current adjustment is seen as a process to cleanse the market, eliminating weak investors and preparing for the final and strongest rebound of the macro cycle [3] - Zeberg emphasizes that the bull market remains strong despite the ongoing adjustments [3]

黄金今年迄今上涨54%，有望创下自1979年以来最大年度涨幅，并在3月突破了3000美元、10月突破 4000美元的一系列关键心理阻力位。 推动这轮涨势的是政治紧张局势和美国关税不确定性，并导致最近又出现了一波害怕错过（FOMO）的 买盘。 世界黄金协会高级市场策略师里德说，"涨势的性质已经改变，现在由西方投资者推动，而不是过去两 年大部分时间里更稳定的新兴市场买家，这意味着更多的不确定性和波动性，即使推动黄金的因素看起 来会持续下去。" 周一，黄金创下每盎司4381美元的纪录，这是一年前很少有人预测的水平。前往下周在日本举行的伦敦 金银市场协会（LBMA）会议的代表们一年前曾预测，到现在价格将达到2941美元。 警惕标普500指数上涨 市场专家们正密切关注标普500指数的上涨以及投资者资金同时流入黄金，他们注意到历史上股市大幅 调整曾迫使抛售包括黄金在内的避险资产的情况。 在实现了如此多的重要里程碑后，金价周二下跌5%，创下五年来最陡峭的单日跌幅，衡量价格变化幅 度的市场相对强弱指数（RSI）七周来首次从"超买"降至"正常"。 Julius Baer分析师Carsten Menke表示，"在如此急剧和陡峭的 ...