黄金今年迄今上涨54%，有望创下自1979年以来最大年度涨幅，并在3月突破了3000美元、10月突破 4000美元的一系列关键心理阻力位。 推动这轮涨势的是政治紧张局势和美国关税不确定性，并导致最近又出现了一波害怕错过（FOMO）的 买盘。 世界黄金协会高级市场策略师里德说，"涨势的性质已经改变，现在由西方投资者推动，而不是过去两 年大部分时间里更稳定的新兴市场买家，这意味着更多的不确定性和波动性，即使推动黄金的因素看起 来会持续下去。" 周一，黄金创下每盎司4381美元的纪录，这是一年前很少有人预测的水平。前往下周在日本举行的伦敦 金银市场协会（LBMA）会议的代表们一年前曾预测，到现在价格将达到2941美元。 警惕标普500指数上涨 市场专家们正密切关注标普500指数的上涨以及投资者资金同时流入黄金，他们注意到历史上股市大幅 调整曾迫使抛售包括黄金在内的避险资产的情况。 在实现了如此多的重要里程碑后，金价周二下跌5%，创下五年来最陡峭的单日跌幅，衡量价格变化幅 度的市场相对强弱指数（RSI）七周来首次从"超买"降至"正常"。 Julius Baer分析师Carsten Menke表示，"在如此急剧和陡峭的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant market downturn, drawing parallels to the volatility experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the impact of geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty on investor sentiment and market performance [4][8][10]. Market Performance - On Monday, Nasdaq futures dropped over 5.5%, S&P 500 futures fell more than 4.7%, and Dow futures decreased over 4%. WTI crude oil fell by 4%, dropping below $60 per barrel for the first time since April 2021 [4]. - The S&P 500 index experienced a decline of 5.97% last Friday, nearing the 7% threshold that would trigger a trading halt [8]. Investor Sentiment - The current market turmoil has led to a "panic sell-off," affecting even traditionally safe assets like gold, as investors seek to cover losses elsewhere [10]. - There is a notable increase in margin calls from major banks to hedge fund clients, indicating a significant drop in asset values [9]. Economic Outlook - Analysts express a cautious outlook, with some predicting further market corrections before stabilization occurs. Michael Hartnett from Bank of America advises shorting risk assets until there are policy shifts from the Trump administration [11]. - JPMorgan's David Lebovitz believes the U.S. will avoid a recession due to tariffs, suggesting that the market has entered a buy-the-dip phase [12]. Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - The Federal Funds futures indicate a potential interest rate cut of 120 basis points (approximately 4.8 times) by the end of the year, reflecting a shift in market expectations [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of tariffs raises questions about how effective potential rate cuts will be in mitigating economic damage [13].