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联邦制药再涨超4% UBT251海外授权提振业绩 上半年纯利同比增超24%
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 02:18
Core Viewpoint - Federal Pharmaceutical (03933) has seen a stock increase of over 4%, currently trading at HKD 17.61, with a transaction volume of HKD 147 million. The company anticipates a net profit of approximately RMB 1.85 billion for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of about 24.06% from RMB 1.491 billion in the same period last year, primarily driven by increased licensing fee income from Novo Nordisk [1][1][1]. Financial Performance - The expected net profit for the first half of the year is approximately RMB 1.85 billion, compared to RMB 1.491 billion in the previous year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 24.06% [1][1][1]. - The increase in net profit is mainly attributed to licensing fee income from Novo Nordisk, amounting to approximately RMB 1.1 billion [1][1][1]. - However, there was a decline in segment profits for intermediates by approximately RMB 430 million and for raw materials by about RMB 270 million, partially offsetting the net profit growth [1][1][1]. Product Development - In March of this year, Federal Pharmaceutical granted exclusive overseas rights (excluding Greater China) for UBT251 to Novo Nordisk. UBT251 is the first three-target weight loss drug in China licensed to a multinational corporation at a high price [1][1][1]. - UBT251 has initiated four clinical trials in China, with significant progress expected for overweight/obesity indications by the second half of 2025, and completion of domestic Phase II clinical trials anticipated by the first half of 2026, with a potential market approval in China by 2028 [1][1][1]. - The conservative peak sales estimate for UBT251 in the domestic market for weight loss indications is projected at RMB 3.8 billion, while the overseas peak sales estimate is USD 6 billion, assuming a 50% success rate for market approval [1][1][1].
港股异动 | 联邦制药(03933)再涨超4% UBT251海外授权提振业绩 上半年纯利同比增超24%
智通财经网· 2025-08-20 02:14
据悉,今年3月,联邦制药将UBT251的海外权益(除大中华区外)独家授权给诺和诺德。国投证券指 出,UBT251为国内首个以较高对价授权MNC的三靶点减重药物,目前UBT251在国内已开启四项临床 试验,从进度上来看,预计超重/肥胖适应症有望于2025年下半年取得关键进展,2026年上半年有望完 成国内二期临床,并预计有望于2028年国内获批上市。该行预计UBT251仅在减重适应症上,保守有望 实现国内销售峰值77亿元、海外销售峰值60亿美元,假设50%的上市成功率,国内风险调整后的销售峰 值为38亿元、海外风险调整后的销售峰值为30亿美元。 智通财经APP获悉,联邦制药(03933)再涨超4%,截至发稿,涨3.59%,报17.61港元,成交额1.47亿港 元。 消息面上,联邦制药发布公告,预期上半年净溢利约为18.5亿元人民币,去年同期为14.91亿元,同比增 长约24.06%。公告称,净利润上升主要由于来自诺和诺德股份有限公司的许可费收入增加,约为11亿 元。然而,与2024年同期相比,中间体产品的分部利润下降约4.3亿元,原料药的分部利润下降约2.7亿 元,部分抵消了净利润的增长。 ...
联邦制药(03933):UBT251海外授权彰显研发成果,创新管线打开成长天花板
Guotou Securities· 2025-08-01 07:39
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company with a 6-month target price of HKD 20.71 [4][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the overseas licensing of UBT251 as a demonstration of the company's R&D capabilities, with an innovative drug pipeline expected to yield results [2][3]. - UBT251 is the first three-target weight loss drug authorized to a multinational corporation (MNC) in China, with significant clinical progress anticipated by 2025 and potential market peaks in both domestic and overseas sales [3][4]. - The company has a robust antibiotic and insulin segment, with a comprehensive supply chain from upstream intermediates to finished products, and is expanding into animal health, which is expected to drive new growth [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has established itself as a leader in the penicillin industry, with a fully integrated supply chain from intermediates to finished products, and is expanding into new therapeutic areas such as autoimmune diseases and metabolism [13][14]. - Historical performance shows a strong revenue growth trajectory, with a CAGR of 11.55% from 2005 to 2023, although recent performance has been impacted by production adjustments and increased R&D investments [25][29]. 2. UBT251 Development - UBT251 has commenced multiple clinical trials in China, with significant milestones expected in the coming years, including potential market approval by 2028 [3][37]. - The competitive landscape for three-target weight loss drugs is favorable, with UBT251 currently positioned second in clinical progress among domestic competitors [39][40]. 3. Antibiotic and Insulin Segments - The antibiotic market is expected to grow steadily, driven by the rigid demand for penicillin formulations, while the insulin segment has shown resilience with a significant increase in procurement volumes [4][6]. - The company has successfully navigated the challenges posed by antibiotic procurement policies, maintaining a competitive edge in the market [4][6]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 0.89% for 2025, with net profits expected to reach approximately CNY 2.86 billion [7][8]. - The report anticipates a peak sales potential of CNY 7.7 billion domestically and USD 6 billion overseas for UBT251, assuming a 50% success rate for market entry [3][4].