Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with significant revenue and profit growth, driven by export sales and internal cost optimization [3][4][5]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.002 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.43% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 11.05%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 131 million yuan, up 1211.04% year-on-year and 88.64% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company’s gross profit margin in Q3 2025 was 13.6%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points year-on-year and 1.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to internal cost optimization [6][7]. Sales and Export Performance - The company’s sales volume for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025 were 11,000, 11,500, and 12,400 units respectively, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.19% in Q1, a decrease of 12.20% in Q2, and a significant increase of 23.64% in Q3. The export volume in Q3 was 7,200 units, up 33.67% year-on-year [4][5]. Cost and Expense Management - The company’s expense ratio was 10.8% in Q3 2025, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.12 percentage points, mainly due to a rise in sales expenses [7]. - The improvement in profitability is attributed to both internal cost optimization and an upgraded sales structure, which are expected to drive long-term growth [5][6]. Strategic Developments - The integration of three companies and management changes are ongoing, with the completion of a 40% equity acquisition of Jinlong Bus in December 2024. This integration is expected to optimize procurement and enhance gross profit margins [8]. - Management changes aim to improve operational efficiency, providing a strategic foundation for future profitability [8]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company maintains revenue projections of 25 billion yuan, 26.8 billion yuan, and 28.5 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of 440 million yuan, 640 million yuan, and 830 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 182%, 45%, and 28% respectively. The company is rated as a "buy" [9].

| 投资要点 | | --- | 公司公告： 公司发布2024年年报及2025年一季报，业绩符合我们预期。2024年公司营业收入为230亿元， 同比+18.4%，归母净利润1.6亿元，同比+110%，扣非归母净利润-1.6亿元，亏损同比收窄。 2025Q1营业收入49亿元，同环比+23.7%/-42.5%，归母净利润为0.5亿元，同环比+165%/-43%， 扣非归母净利润为-0.1亿元，同环比亏损收窄。 出口外销共同驱动，2024年/25Q1收入高增： n 2024年公司销量5万辆，同比+19%，单车ASP 46万元，同比-0.6%。分车型长度来看，2024年 大中客占总销量比重58%，同比+4pct。分区域来看，根据中客网数据，2024年公司出口销量 2.3万辆，同比+20%，新能源出口销量0.4万辆，同比+10%。25Q1公司营业收入同比+24%，增 速超过2024年全年，总销量1.1万辆，同环比+12%/-35%，其中出口销量0.7万辆，同环比 +101%/-10%，新能源出口销量0.1万辆，同环比+211%/-42%。我们认为，本轮客车周期向上的 核心催化来自于出口客车的销量高增，公司作为国内客车龙 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jinlong Automobile [1] Core Views - The integration of the three subsidiaries is complete, leading to an upward shift in the profit center [7] - The company is expected to benefit from strong domestic and international sales growth, with revenue projections for 2025 raised to 25 billion yuan [7] - The new management is anticipated to enhance internal efficiency, accelerating profit release [7] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023A: 19.4 billion yuan - 2024A: 22.966 billion yuan (YoY +18.38%) - 2025E: 24.987 billion yuan (YoY +8.80%) - 2026E: 26.757 billion yuan (YoY +7.09%) - 2027E: 28.497 billion yuan (YoY +6.50%) [1][8] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2023A: 751 million yuan - 2024A: 1.5774 billion yuan (YoY +110.05%) - 2025E: 4.4424 billion yuan (YoY +181.62%) - 2026E: 6.4494 billion yuan (YoY +45.18%) - 2027E: 8.2807 billion yuan (YoY +28.40%) [1][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.10 yuan - 2024A: 0.22 yuan - 2025E: 0.62 yuan - 2026E: 0.90 yuan - 2027E: 1.15 yuan [1][8] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratios**: - 2024A: 59.91 - 2025E: 21.27 - 2026E: 14.65 - 2027E: 11.41 [1][8] Market Data Summary - **Closing Price**: 12.54 yuan - **Market Capitalization**: 8,991.77 million yuan - **Price-to-Book Ratio**: 2.86 [5][6] Operational Highlights - The company achieved a sales volume of 50,000 vehicles in 2024, a YoY increase of 19% [7] - Export sales reached 23,000 vehicles in 2024, a YoY increase of 20% [7] - The gross margin improved to 10.2% in 2024, with a further increase to 11.3% in Q1 2025 [7]