1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer in the bond market dropped by 7 percentage points to 53% this period. The quantile values of comparison - based indicators continued to rise, while most other indicator quantile values declined. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 35% [3][15][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Micro - trading Thermometer Reading - The "Guojin Securities Fixed - Income Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped by 7 percentage points to 53% compared with the previous period. The quantile values of comparison - based indicators such as stock - bond, commodity, and real - estate comparison increased by 12, 8, and 8 percentage points respectively. Only a few indicators like TL/T long - short ratio, fund duration and divergence, and allocation disk strength had a slight increase in quantile values. Many other indicators' quantile values declined, and currently, the only indicator with high congestion is the bond fund profit - taking pressure [3][15]. 3.2 Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range - Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 7 (35%), the number in the neutral range decreased to 5 (25%), and the number in the cold range increased to 8 (40%). The all - market turnover rate, institutional leverage, and listed company wealth management purchase volume dropped from the neutral to the cold range, while the stock - bond and commodity comparison both rose from the neutral to the over - heated range [4][18]. 3.3 1Y Treasury Bond Turnover Rate - In the trading heat - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 50%, the proportion in the neutral range dropped significantly to 17%, and the proportion in the cold range increased to 33%. Only the TL/T long - short ratio quantile value increased by 5 percentage points to 88%, while the institutional leverage and all - market turnover rate quantile values decreased by 26 and 19 percentage points respectively, both dropping from the neutral to the cold range. The 1/10Y and 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate quantile values also decreased by 25 and 13 percentage points [6][21]. 3.4 Wide - money Expectation - In the institutional behavior - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 13%, the proportion in the neutral range decreased to 25%, and the proportion in the cold range increased to 63%. The quantile value of the fund - small and medium - sized bank purchase volume dropped significantly by 69 percentage points from the over - heated to the cold range; the quantile value of the listed company wealth management purchase volume dropped by 5 percentage points to 38%, from the neutral to the cold range. In addition, the quantile value of the allocation disk strength increased by 12 percentage points, while the quantile values of the fund's purchase of ultra - long bonds and the money tightness expectation decreased by 18 and 12 percentage points respectively [7][25]. 3.5 Policy Spread - The policy spread remained at - 2bp, with the quantile value dropping by 6 percentage points to 86%, still in the over - heated range. The credit spread and the Agricultural Development - National Development spread remained basically the same as before, at 49bp and 0bp respectively, while the IRS - 3M Shibor spread slightly widened by 1bp to - 1bp. The average of the three spreads remained at 16bp, with the quantile value dropping by 3 percentage points to 66%, still in the neutral range [8][29]. 3.6 Consumer Goods Comparison Quantile Value - The proportion of comparison - based indicators in the over - heated range increased to 50%, the proportion in the cold range decreased to 25%, and the proportion in the neutral range remained at 25%. The quantile values of the stock - bond and commodity comparison increased by 12 and 8 percentage points to 76% and 70% respectively, both rising from the neutral to the over - heated range; the real - estate comparison quantile value increased by 8 percentage points to 65% [9][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer for the current period has increased by 3 percentage points to 52%. The number of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 35%. The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio has increased significantly, while some indicators such as the listed company's financial management purchase volume and commodity price - ratio percentile have declined to varying degrees [11][14][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Micro - trading Thermometer - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer for the current period has increased by 3 percentage points to 52% [11]. 3.2 Distribution of Indicator Ranges - Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range has increased to 7 (35%), the number in the neutral range remains 6 (30%), and the number in the cold range has decreased to 7 (35%). The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio has risen from the cold range to the over - heated range, the overall market turnover ratio and the money tightening expectation have risen from the neutral range to the over - heated range, the market spread has risen from the cold range to the over - heated range, and the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio has dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range [3][18]. 3.3 Classification of Indicators 3.3.1 Trading Heat Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 50%, and the proportion in the neutral range remains 50%. The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio percentile has increased by 87 percentage points to 96% and risen from the cold range to the over - heated range; the overall market turnover ratio percentile has increased by 6 percentage points to 75% and risen from the neutral range to the over - heated range; the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio percentile has decreased by 17 percentage points to 60% and dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range; the TL/T long - short ratio percentile has increased by 10 percentage points [5][19]. 3.3.2 Institutional Behavior Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 50%, the proportion in the neutral range has decreased to 13%, and the proportion in the cold range remains 38%. The money tightening expectation percentile has slightly increased by 1 percentage point to 70% and risen from the neutral range to the over - heated range. The listed company's financial management purchase volume has decreased by 17 percentage points to 4% [6][23]. 3.3.3 Spread Indicators - The policy spread has further narrowed by 1bp to - 1bp, and the 3 - year Treasury bond yield has fallen below the policy rate again, with its percentile continuing to rise by 5 percentage points to 59%, still in the neutral range. The credit spread, IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread, and Agricultural Development - CDB spread have changed, and the average spread has narrowed by 1bp to 18bp, with its percentile slightly rising by 1 percentage point to 41%, in the neutral range [7][30]. 3.3.4 Price - ratio Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the cold range remains 100%. The commodity price - ratio and real - estate price - ratio percentiles have decreased by 6 and 2 percentage points to 7% and 27% respectively, while the stock - bond price - ratio and consumer goods price - ratio percentiles remain the same as the previous period [8][30].