那就，。 本期比价类指标分位值继续上升，股债、商品、不动产比价分位值分别上升 12、8、8 个百分点；此外仅 TL/T 多空比、 基金久期及分歧度、配置盘力度分位值不同程度小幅上升。基金-中小行买入量、机构杠杆、1/10Y 国债换手率、全市 场换手率、基金超长债买入量指标分位值分别下降 69、26、25、19、18 个百分点，其余指标分位值也多不同程度回 落。当前拥挤度较高的指标仅有债基止盈压力。 本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比升至 35% 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量升至 7 个（占比 35%）、位于中性区间的指标数量降至 5 个（占比 25%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量升至 8 个（占比 40%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是，全市场换手率、机构杠杆、上市公 司理财买入量由中性区间降至偏冷区间，股债、商品比价均由中性升至过热区间。 比价分位值继续上升 本期微观交易温度计读数回落 7 个百分点至 53% ①交易热度中，仅 TL/T 多空比分位值上升 5 个百分点，其余指标分位值均回落，其中机构杠杆、1/10Y 国债换手率分 位值分别回落 26、25 个百分点，交易热度分位均值下降 13 个百分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current phase of macro liquidity being the most accommodative may be coming to an end, with expectations of a marginal decline in government debt growth and loan growth in the short term, potentially leading to a continued decline in M2 year-on-year in the first quarter [2][3] Group 1: Understanding Liquidity - Liquidity assessment includes two dimensions: the liquidity of the real economy and the liquidity of the financial market, where the former affects future price and profit trends, and the latter influences current capital market transaction volumes [6][14] - The two main factors affecting liquidity are the growth scale of M2 and the scale of residents' deposit migration [8][16] Group 2: Changes in Liquidity Conditions - M2 year-on-year growth may be declining due to the "escape from extraordinary" policy, with expectations that the marginal increase in government debt in 2026 may be less than in 2025, and a potential decrease in loan growth could further drag down M2 [9][22][23] - The recent increase in market volatility suggests that the probability of accelerated migration of residents' deposits is low, which may lead to a decline in macro liquidity [2][25] Group 3: Differences in Current Liquidity Conditions - The current phase of liquidity contraction differs from historical patterns in three key aspects: 1. The impact on corporate profits is different, as the midstream sector is currently the most stable, with its demand less sensitive to domestic liquidity conditions [3][32] 2. The relationship between stocks and bonds has changed, with current indicators suggesting that stocks have a relative advantage in allocation compared to bonds [3][39] 3. The policy response may differ, as the current economic dynamics are more aligned with high-tech innovation and direct financing rather than traditional real estate and local financing platforms [3][41]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the shift from "extraordinary measures" to a more balanced approach in economic policy, focusing on both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [4][5][15] - The economic work meeting indicates a more stable and slightly positive judgment on external conditions, with China maintaining a 5.4% export growth rate over the past 11 months, providing confidence to move away from extraordinary policy reliance [5][16] - The pressure to prevent risks has significantly decreased, with the focus on risk prevention now ranked ninth among key tasks, indicating a shift in policy focus towards reform and opening up [5][16] Group 2 - Fiscal support is expected to remain stable with a slight decline, with the 2026 budget's expenditure growth rate projected to align with economic growth targets, maintaining a deficit rate around 4% [6][17][18] - The policy focus is shifting from "insufficient domestic demand" to "strong supply and weak demand," indicating a dual approach to manage both supply and demand sides, with an emphasis on price stability [8][18] - The judgment on economic conditions for 2026 highlights the midstream manufacturing sector as the most promising, benefiting from strong export performance and policy support aimed at reducing competition [9][19][20] Group 3 - The investment strategy remains bullish on stocks while being cautiously strategic on bonds, driven by improving supply-demand balance and lower stock market volatility [11][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - Since 2025, products such as wealth management, fixed-income plus, and equity have attracted significant funds. Money market funds and bond funds have seen a notable decline in net asset value growth, while fixed-income wealth management products continue to grow due to their yield advantage over time deposits. Insurance premium income growth was high before the reduction of the guaranteed interest rate but has since decreased. Equity and hybrid funds have maintained high-speed growth [1]. - Deposit relocation and stock market rallies often reinforce each other. The current deposit relocation is related to factors such as the reduction of deposit interest rates, regulatory bans on manual interest supplements, and the rise of the stock market. As the equity market continues to rise, deposit relocation accelerated in July [2]. - In the long term, non-bank institutions tend to adjust their asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment. For example, the proportion of pure fixed-income funds has decreased in the United States, Europe, and Japan during low-interest-rate periods. In China, the proportion of bond and money market funds among all public funds has decreased since 2025 as the absolute level of interest rates has declined and the profitability of bond assets has weakened [3]. - In the short term, the relocation of non-bank funds may slow down periodically. This can be observed from the following perspectives: the relative advantage of stocks over bonds may decrease as the stock market rises; the spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the policy rate has returned to the "normal" range; and an increase in the scale of 30-year ETFs and the long-short ratio of TL positions may indicate a slowdown in non-bank fund relocation [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Products such as wealth management, fixed-income plus, and equity attract significant funds 1.1 Decreased attractiveness of non-equity assets to funds - Cash management products have limited appeal. During the current deposit relocation period, money market funds have grown more than cash management wealth management products. Since 2025, the yields of both types of assets have dropped to low levels, with cash management wealth management products having an annualized yield of about 1.6% [12]. - The bond market's profitability has declined, but it still offers an advantage over time deposits. Since the end of 2023, bond funds and fixed-income wealth management products have grown rapidly. However, since 2025, the bond market has entered a "triple low" era of low interest rates, low spreads, and low volatility, leading to a decline in the profitability of pure bonds and a slowdown in the growth of bond fund scale. Currently, the annualized yield of pure bond funds is about 2.7%, and that of fixed-income plus funds is about 2.6%, still significantly higher than the time deposit rate of about 1% [12]. - The attractiveness of insurance products has diminished. After the reduction of the guaranteed interest rate in September, the "panic buying" effect has weakened. The market's response to this round of "panic buying" has been muted due to factors such as the establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the guaranteed interest rate, the exhaustion of consumers' purchasing power from previous rounds of "panic buying," and the decreasing marginal impact of interest rate adjustments on consumers' willingness to move funds in a low-interest-rate environment [17]. 1.2 More funds may flow into the equity market - Equity funds have experienced high-speed growth, and the stock market is attractive to funds. Since September 2024, as the stock market has continued to rise, the net asset value of equity funds has maintained high-speed growth, and the growth rate of hybrid funds has turned positive. The yields of equity and hybrid products have been increasing, and they are expected to attract more funds in the future [22]. - In the future, more funds may flow into the equity market. In a low-interest-rate environment, equity assets are more cost-effective than pure bonds. As the equity market rises, the overall risk appetite has increased, and residents and non-bank funds may flow more into the equity market. Since July 2025, the increase in wealth management products has been lower than in previous years, indicating that more funds have flowed into other non-bank institutions and products. The risk appetite of non-bank institutions has increased significantly, as evidenced by the growth of convertible bond ETFs and the increase in institutional new account openings in the stock market [25]. II. How long will the relocation of deposits and non-bank funds continue? 2.1 Deposit relocation and stock market rallies often reinforce each other - The current deposit relocation is related to multiple factors, including the reduction of deposit interest rates, regulatory bans on manual interest supplements, and the rise of the stock market. Since 2022, there have been multiple rounds of deposit interest rate cuts. After the first four cuts, the last three cuts had a limited impact on deposit relocation. In 2024, the ban on manual interest supplements led to a significant decrease in deposit growth and a large increase in non-bank deposit growth, but the relocation reversed after the standardization of interbank deposit interest rates in November. The rise of the stock market has also driven deposit relocation. In September 2024, non-bank deposit growth increased significantly due to the stock market rally but then declined. In July 2025, the increase in risk appetite at home and abroad led to a rise in the equity market, and institutional funds and deposits moved from pure bonds to fixed-income plus and equity products, resulting in a significant increase in non-bank deposit growth [30][35]. - Deposit relocation accelerated in July as the equity market continued to rise. After the state-owned large banks initiated a new round of deposit interest rate cuts in May, deposit relocation was not obvious in June. However, in July, the combined deposits of residents and enterprises decreased by 2.57 trillion yuan, the highest in the past four years. Resident deposit growth decreased slightly, while non-bank deposit growth rebounded significantly to 15% [36]. - Deposit relocation may continue. Historically, deposit relocation has been significant during major stock market rallies, such as from 2005 - 2007, 2014 - 2015, 2016 - 2017, 2019 - 2021, and since September 2024. Even after the stock market reaches a peak and retraces, deposit relocation usually continues for some time. Since July, the stock market has risen significantly, and if it continues to rise, deposit relocation may persist [37]. 2.2 In the long term, non-bank institutions tend to adjust their asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment - Non-bank asset allocation adjustment is a typical feature of a low-interest-rate environment. In recent years, as broad-based interest rates have declined, the profitability of fixed-income assets such as bonds has gradually decreased. Driven by factors such as the introduction of policies to stabilize the capital market in September 2024, technological breakthroughs since 2025, and the expectation of "anti-involution" policies, the equity market has continued to break through, and non-bank institutional funds have shifted from pure fixed-income assets to equity and fixed-income plus assets [41]. - Similar trends have been observed in other countries. In the United States, during the two rounds of interest rate cuts from 2007 - 2016 and 2018 - 2021, the proportion of bond and money market mutual funds decreased from a high of 56% in 2008 to about 40% in 2021. In Europe, from 2012 - 2021, the proportion of bond and money market UCITS funds decreased from 45% in 2012 to about 36% at the end of 2021. In Japan, after entering a low-interest-rate era in the late 1990s, the scale of bond and money market funds declined rapidly, and their proportion decreased from a peak of 77% to about 7.0% in March 2024 [41][42][49]. - In China, the scale of bond and money market funds has grown rapidly in recent years, and their proportion among all public funds increased from about 55% to about 65% in 2024. However, since 2025, the proportion has decreased as the absolute level of interest rates has declined and the profitability of bond assets has weakened [49]. 2.3 In the short term, when will the relocation of non-bank funds slow down periodically? - The relocation of non-bank funds may slow down periodically as the equity market fluctuates and interest rates change. This can be observed from the following perspectives: - Stock-bond valuation and bond-credit valuation: As the stock market rises significantly, the relative advantage of stocks over bonds may decrease. As of the end of August, the risk premium of the WIND300 ex-financial index has decreased from more than two standard deviations above the mean to less than one standard deviation below the mean, and the risk premium of the dividend index has decreased to near two standard deviations below the mean. Insurance funds and other institutions may slow down the relocation of funds. Bonds still have a significant advantage over loans, and as the bond market rebounds from a low level, the cost of real economy financing continues to decline, making bonds attractive to banks [52]. - The spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the policy rate: Before 2024, the spread between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the 7-day reverse repurchase rate fluctuated around 70BP. In 2024, as broad-based interest rates declined, the spread was compressed to about 50BP. From December 2024 to January 2025, interest rates declined rapidly, further compressing the spread. Since 2025, the spread has oscillated between 10BP and 40BP. However, since late July, as the bond market has continued to rebound, the spread has gradually risen to about 45BP, returning to the "normal" range before 2025, indicating that the market has corrected the previously overdrawn expectations, and non-bank funds may slow down the selling of bonds [57]. - The scale of 30-year ETFs and the long-short ratio of TL positions: As the equity market rally slows down and interest rates rise, institutions are increasing their purchases of 30-year ETFs, and the long-short ratio of TL positions is rising. On the one hand, the growth of fixed-income plus products has increased the demand for 30-year ETFs. On the other hand, some institutions may buy 30-year ETFs and TL to hedge against equity market risks. When the scale of 30-year ETFs and the long-short ratio of TL positions continue to rise, it may indicate a slowdown in the relocation of non-bank funds [61].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The extreme divergence between credit spreads and stock risk premiums led to the starting point of the current A-share valuation expansion. The current round of A-share market is driven by funds, and the logic has only reached the middle stage, with the upward trend unfinished [2]. - The fact that the risk premium has reached "mean - 1 standard deviation" does not mean the end of the market. Considering the intensity and duration of the current round of fund - driven, A - share valuations are expected to continue to expand, driving the risk premium to decline further, and the risk - compensation returns of stocks and bonds will eventually converge [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Historically, the stock market risk premium can stay below "mean - 1 standard deviation" for a long time - There were several historical periods when the stock market risk premium fell below "mean - 1 standard deviation", such as from December 2014 to August 2015, November 2017 to February 2018, and September 2020 to April 2021, with durations of 9 months, 2 months, and 8 months respectively. Except for the 2017 - 2018 period when the risk premium could not continue to decline due to rapid liquidity withdrawal, in other periods, it could fall to around "mean - 2 standard deviations" or even lower [3]. - These historical periods had similar macro - environments that did not support a bull market in stocks. The factors driving the significant expansion of A - share valuations were not fundamental but fund - driven, and there was no continuous expansion of corporate profits [3]. 2. In the current round of the market, the indexes have expanded to varying degrees, and there are no signs of an end - Since the beginning of the year, the stock market has priced in the decline of the risk - free rate. Different sectors have different repair progress. The repair of large - cap stocks is relatively large, with the ERP basically reaching "mean - 1 standard deviation", while the ERP of small - and medium - cap stocks is still above the historical mean [4]. - The current round of valuation expansion also starts from changes in the capital side. Since September 2024, the economic fundamentals and corporate profit growth have been weak, and the monetary policy has been relatively loose. The core factor determining the start and end of the market is the sustainability of fund - driving. The current round of fund - driven logic has only evolved to institutional - driven and allocation - driven (insurance funds taking the lead), and bank wealth management and public funds will take over in the second half of the year [4]. - With the expansion of A - share valuations, the risk premium of the Shanghai Composite Index has been below "mean - 1 standard deviation" since July 18, lasting for less than 1 month. "Mean - 1 standard deviation" cannot be a sign of the end of the market, especially since the risk premiums of some sectors are still above the mean [4]. 3. Valuation expansion space calculation under two scenario assumptions - Historically, the extreme situation of index valuation expansion is in the range of "mean - N standard deviations", where N is between 0.6 - 4.0, with a median of approximately 2.0. - Scenario 1 assumes that the stock market risk premium can fall to "mean - 2 standard deviations"; Scenario 2 assumes that it can fall to "mean - N standard deviations", where N corresponds to the lowest level previously reached by the index's ERP. - Based on these two assumptions, the ChiNext Index has the largest PE expansion space, followed by the Wind 300 (ex - banks), CSI 1000, and CSI 500. The PE expansion spaces of the SSE 50, Shanghai Composite Index, and Wind Dividend Index are relatively small, but there is still expansion space even in a conservative scenario [6][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that with the gradual increase in market risk appetite, various funds are actively entering the market, with bank wealth management and public funds expected to become significant marginal forces in the second half of the year [1][2] - As of August 1, the weekly net subscription of stock ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 60 billion and 50 billion units respectively in the past two weeks, indicating strong inflow of incremental funds [1] - In July, the new issuance scale of equity funds reached 34.7 billion, an 18.8% increase from June's 29.2 billion, with the number of new funds increasing by 26 [1] Group 2 - The average position of public actively managed mixed equity funds was approximately 85.99% as of July 25, up 2.05 percentage points from July 18, indicating a significant increase in equity exposure [2] - It is estimated that about 3 trillion yuan of incremental funds will enter the market from various institutions, including insurance, wealth management, public funds, and trusts in 2025 [2] - The current market environment is characterized by a historical extreme in the stock-bond price ratio, driving a shift in asset allocation towards equity assets due to expected return requirements [2] Group 3 - The liquidity easing is expected to provide valuation support for A-shares, with both domestic and international factors contributing to a favorable environment for risk assets [3] - The recent continuous rise in A-shares has led to some profit-taking, but the overall liquidity environment is anticipated to support valuations in the long term [3] - Structural opportunities in A-shares are expected to continue emerging due to the active participation of funds and the market's recovery in profitability [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the bond market's micro - trading thermometer this period has increased by 5 percentage points to 55%. The number of indicators in the over - heated range remains at 35%. The trading heat has generally increased, while the bond - fund profit - taking pressure has decreased, the policy spread has slightly narrowed, and the stock - bond and commodity price - ratio percentile values have both declined [2][14][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Overall Indicator Changes - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer has increased by 5 percentage points to 55%. The trading heat indicators have increased significantly, and the percentile values of the relative turnover rate and the TL/T long - short ratio have risen. The percentile values of the listed companies' wealth - management purchase volume and the fund - rural commercial bank purchase volume have also increased substantially. The significantly decreased indicators include the fund duration, bond - fund profit - taking pressure, and commodity price ratio. Currently, indicators with high congestion levels include the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, fund divergence, fund ultra - long - term bond purchase volume, and allocation - disk strength [2][14]. - Among the 20 micro - indicators, 7 (35%) are in the over - heated range, 6 (30%) are in the neutral range, and 7 (35%) are in the cold range. The TL/T long - short ratio has moved from the cold range to the over - heated range; the listed companies' wealth - management purchase volume and the fund - rural commercial bank purchase volume have moved from the cold range to the neutral range; the fund duration has moved from the over - heated range to the neutral range; the bond - fund profit - taking pressure and the commodity price ratio have moved from the neutral range to the cold range [3][19]. 3.2. Sub - category Indicator Changes 3.2.1. Trading Heat Indicators - The proportion of trading heat indicators in the over - heated range has increased to 67%, in the neutral range remains at 17%, and in the cold range has decreased to 17%. The percentile values of the relative turnover rate have all increased slightly, and the TL/T long - short ratio percentile value has increased by 54 percentage points, moving from the cold range to the over - heated range [5]. - Specific indicators: The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate has increased to 2.01, with the past - year percentile value rising by 2 percentage points to 92%; the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate has increased to 0.1, with the past - year percentile value rising by 7 percentage points to 25%; the TL/T long - short ratio has increased to 1.01, with the past - year percentile value rising by 54 percentage points to 81%; the full - market turnover rate has increased to 19.13%, with the past - year percentile value rising by 10 percentage points to 53%; the institutional leverage has decreased to 88.14%, with the past - year percentile value dropping by 13 percentage points to 87%; the long - term Treasury bond trading proportion has increased to 65.77%, with the past - year percentile value rising by 27 percentage points to 73% [15][26]. 3.2.2. Institutional Behavior Indicators - The proportion of institutional behavior indicators in the over - heated range has decreased to 38%, in the neutral range has increased to 50%, and in the cold range has decreased to 13%. The fund duration percentile value has dropped by 25 percentage points to 49%, moving from the over - heated range to the neutral range; the bond - fund profit - taking pressure has dropped by 27 percentage points, moving from the neutral range to the cold range; the listed companies' wealth - management purchase volume and the fund - rural commercial bank purchase volume percentile values have increased by 56 and 63 percentage points respectively, both moving from the cold range to the neutral range [6][24]. - Specific indicators: The fund duration has decreased to 2.93 years, with the past - year percentile value dropping by 25 percentage points to 49%; the fund divergence has increased to 0.46, with the past - year percentile value dropping by 4 percentage points to 90%; the bond - fund profit - taking pressure has decreased to 15.93%, with the past - year percentile value dropping by 27 percentage points to 36%; the money - tightness expectation index has decreased to 0.93, with the past - year percentile value rising by 7 percentage points to 61%; the allocation - disk strength has decreased to 0.21%, with the past - year percentile value dropping by 4 percentage points to 86%; the listed companies' wealth - management purchase volume has increased to 116.4 billion, with the past - year percentile value rising by 56 percentage points to 69% [15][27]. 3.2.3. Spread Indicators - The policy spread has slightly narrowed from 8bp to 5bp, with the corresponding percentile value rising by 11 percentage points to 32%, still in the cold range. The credit spread is basically the same as the previous period. The average spread of the agricultural development - state - owned development spread, IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread has widened from 18bp to 20bp, and its percentile value has dropped by 5 percentage points to 42%, in the neutral range [7][30][32]. 3.2.4. Price - ratio Indicators - The proportion of price - ratio indicators in the cold range has increased to 100%. The stock - bond and commodity price - ratio percentile values have dropped by 17 and 22 percentage points respectively to 19% and 33%. The commodity price ratio has moved from the neutral range to the cold range, and the real - estate price ratio has slightly increased by 2 percentage points to 2% [8][32]. - Specific indicators: The market spread has a percentile value of 42%, in the neutral range; the policy spread has a percentile value of 32%, in the cold range; the stock - bond price ratio has decreased to 11.3%, with the past - year percentile value dropping by 17 percentage points to 32%; the commodity price ratio has decreased to - 2.4%, with the past - year percentile value dropping by 22 percentage points to 33%; the real - estate price ratio has increased to - 46.9%, with the past - year percentile value rising by 2 percentage points to 2%; the consumer goods price ratio has increased to - 9%, with the past - year percentile value rising by 9 percentage points to 18%, still in the cold range [15][32][33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight", indicating an expected increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [67] Core View of the Report - In 2025, the market is driven by incremental funds from institutional liability - side changes, expected to bring 3 trillion yuan in incremental funds. The upward trend of A - shares will continue in the second half of the year. Active equity products will enter a new golden age, and mid - to high - volatility products are likely to attract incremental funds [5][15] Summary According to the Directory 1. Three Rounds of Market Review Driven by Funds: Individual Stock Era, Group - Holding Era, and Active Management Era - From 2014 - 2015, it was the individual stock era driven by retail investors and leverage. Policy encouraged capital market development, with IPO restart, Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect launch, and liquidity release. Leverage and retail investors drove up market turnover and margin trading. Individual stocks and the index outperformed active equity funds [16][20] - From 2019 - 2021, it was the group - holding era of public funds. Core assets like Maotai Index and Ningzuohe aligned with industrial trends. Public funds had a positive feedback loop of new issuance, pricing power, and performance. Active equity funds outperformed the index, and non - heavy - held stocks by public funds performed the weakest [16][25] - In 2025, it is the active management era. Driven by institutional allocation, active equity funds are emerging, with their median returns comparable to individual stocks and outperforming the index [16] 2. The Rise of Active Management: Difficulty in Achieving Excess Returns through Heavy - Holding and Group - Holding, and Alpha Creation through Stock - Picking Ability - In this round of the market, heavy - held stocks by funds have not obtained significant excess returns. As of July 24, 2025, the top 5 heavy - held stocks by institutions only had a 3% excess return, compared to 75% in 2015 and 84% in 2020 [30][31] - The proportion of A - shares held by funds and the concentration of fund holdings are at a low level in the past five years. The proportion of fund - held market value decreased from 14% in 2021 to 7% - 8% in Q1 2025, and the concentration indicators such as CR100 and CR50 have also declined [34] - Fund heavy - held companies are shifting towards small - and medium - market - capitalization enterprises. The proportion of companies below 30 billion yuan in fund holdings increased from 8% in Q4 2020 to 14% in Q2 2025 [35] 3. Three Factors Resonate to Push up the Bottom Central System of A - shares - In terms of funds, major institutional types in 2025 are expected to bring 3 trillion yuan in incremental funds into the market, including 816.2 billion yuan from insurance, 326.8 - 584.8 billion yuan from wealth management, 939.1 billion yuan from public funds, and 583.3 billion yuan from trusts [42][44] - From the perspective of stock - bond ratio, non - bank funds prefer equity assets. With the decline of broad - spectrum interest rates, the 10 - year Treasury yield cannot meet the return requirements of liabilities. Since the beginning of this year, the scale of fixed - income + funds has expanded significantly, indicating strong demand for equity - like asset allocation [45] - A - share earnings are at the bottom. As of Q1 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the net profit attributable to the parent of all A - shares (ex - finance) turned positive, mainly due to the low - base effect and cost management. Structural improvement is more worthy of attention [51] 4. Taking Fixed - Income + as an Example, What are the Institutional Preferences? - In terms of strategy selection, in bear markets, low - volatility products have a higher probability of achieving excellent performance, while in bull markets, high - volatility products have a higher probability of achieving excellent performance. In the current market, high - volatility products among the top 20% in performance ranking account for over 60% [54][59] - In terms of fund flow, during the 2019 - 2021 bull market, high - volatility products with excellent performance had a higher probability of net subscriptions. In 2025, funds are still in the transition from bear - market thinking to bull - market thinking, similar to 2019. Mid - to high - volatility products are likely to attract incremental funds [54][59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer this period rose 6 percentage points to 52%, with significant increases in some indicators and slight decreases in others [2][14]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 35%, with changes in the intervals of several indicators [3][19]. - Only the average value of the matching percentile of price ratios declined, while different categories of indicators showed different trends [4][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Micro - trading Thermometer Reading - The "Guojin Securities Fixed - income Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" rose 6 percentage points to 52%. Indicators with large increases in percentile values include fund - rural commercial bank buying volume, 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, and allocation disk strength, while TL/T long - short ratio, market - wide turnover rate, stock - bond price ratio, institutional leverage, and listed company wealth management buying volume decreased slightly [2][14]. 3.2. Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range - Among 20 micro - indicators, 7 (35%) were in the over - heated range, 6 (30%) in the neutral range, and 7 (35%) in the cold range. 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover and fund - rural commercial bank buying volume moved from the cold to the over - heated range, allocation disk strength from the neutral to the over - heated range, TL/T long - short ratio from the over - heated to the neutral range, and stock - bond price ratio from the neutral to the cold range [3][19]. 3.3. Sub - categories of Indicators 3.3.1. Trading Heat - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range among trading heat indicators decreased to 50%, in the neutral range increased to 33%, and in the cold range decreased to 17%. The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate percentile rose 55 percentage points to the over - heated range, while the TL/T long - short ratio percentile decreased 22 percentage points to the neutral range [5][22]. 3.3.2. Institutional Behavior - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range among institutional behavior indicators increased to 50%, in the neutral range decreased to 25%, and in the cold range decreased to 25%. Allocation disk strength percentile rose 18 percentage points to 76% and entered the over - heated range, and fund - rural commercial bank buying volume percentile rose 67 percentage points to the over - heated range [6][24]. 3.3.3. Policy Spread - The 3 - year Treasury bond yield declined slightly, and the policy spread narrowed from 2bp to 0bp, with the percentile rising 6 percentage points to 48% (neutral range). Credit spread, agricultural development - state - owned development spread, and IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread narrowed, and their average spread percentile rose 7 percentage points to 50% (neutral range) [7][30]. 3.3.4. Stock - Bond Price Ratio - The proportion of price - ratio indicators in the cold range increased to 100%. Only the stock - bond price ratio percentile decreased 15 percentage points to the cold range, while the commodity price ratio percentile rose 6 percentage points to 15%, and the real - estate price ratio changed little [8][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer for the current period has increased by 3 percentage points to 52%. The number of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 35%. The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio has increased significantly, while some indicators such as the listed company's financial management purchase volume and commodity price - ratio percentile have declined to varying degrees [11][14][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Micro - trading Thermometer - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer for the current period has increased by 3 percentage points to 52% [11]. 3.2 Distribution of Indicator Ranges - Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range has increased to 7 (35%), the number in the neutral range remains 6 (30%), and the number in the cold range has decreased to 7 (35%). The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio has risen from the cold range to the over - heated range, the overall market turnover ratio and the money tightening expectation have risen from the neutral range to the over - heated range, the market spread has risen from the cold range to the over - heated range, and the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio has dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range [3][18]. 3.3 Classification of Indicators 3.3.1 Trading Heat Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 50%, and the proportion in the neutral range remains 50%. The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio percentile has increased by 87 percentage points to 96% and risen from the cold range to the over - heated range; the overall market turnover ratio percentile has increased by 6 percentage points to 75% and risen from the neutral range to the over - heated range; the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio percentile has decreased by 17 percentage points to 60% and dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range; the TL/T long - short ratio percentile has increased by 10 percentage points [5][19]. 3.3.2 Institutional Behavior Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 50%, the proportion in the neutral range has decreased to 13%, and the proportion in the cold range remains 38%. The money tightening expectation percentile has slightly increased by 1 percentage point to 70% and risen from the neutral range to the over - heated range. The listed company's financial management purchase volume has decreased by 17 percentage points to 4% [6][23]. 3.3.3 Spread Indicators - The policy spread has further narrowed by 1bp to - 1bp, and the 3 - year Treasury bond yield has fallen below the policy rate again, with its percentile continuing to rise by 5 percentage points to 59%, still in the neutral range. The credit spread, IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread, and Agricultural Development - CDB spread have changed, and the average spread has narrowed by 1bp to 18bp, with its percentile slightly rising by 1 percentage point to 41%, in the neutral range [7][30]. 3.3.4 Price - ratio Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the cold range remains 100%. The commodity price - ratio and real - estate price - ratio percentiles have decreased by 6 and 2 percentage points to 7% and 27% respectively, while the stock - bond price - ratio and consumer goods price - ratio percentiles remain the same as the previous period [8][30].