1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the bond market's micro - trading thermometer this period has increased by 5 percentage points to 55%. The number of indicators in the over - heated range remains at 35%. The trading heat has generally increased, while the bond - fund profit - taking pressure has decreased, the policy spread has slightly narrowed, and the stock - bond and commodity price - ratio percentile values have both declined [2][14][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Overall Indicator Changes - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer has increased by 5 percentage points to 55%. The trading heat indicators have increased significantly, and the percentile values of the relative turnover rate and the TL/T long - short ratio have risen. The percentile values of the listed companies' wealth - management purchase volume and the fund - rural commercial bank purchase volume have also increased substantially. The significantly decreased indicators include the fund duration, bond - fund profit - taking pressure, and commodity price ratio. Currently, indicators with high congestion levels include the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, fund divergence, fund ultra - long - term bond purchase volume, and allocation - disk strength [2][14]. - Among the 20 micro - indicators, 7 (35%) are in the over - heated range, 6 (30%) are in the neutral range, and 7 (35%) are in the cold range. The TL/T long - short ratio has moved from the cold range to the over - heated range; the listed companies' wealth - management purchase volume and the fund - rural commercial bank purchase volume have moved from the cold range to the neutral range; the fund duration has moved from the over - heated range to the neutral range; the bond - fund profit - taking pressure and the commodity price ratio have moved from the neutral range to the cold range [3][19]. 3.2. Sub - category Indicator Changes 3.2.1. Trading Heat Indicators - The proportion of trading heat indicators in the over - heated range has increased to 67%, in the neutral range remains at 17%, and in the cold range has decreased to 17%. The percentile values of the relative turnover rate have all increased slightly, and the TL/T long - short ratio percentile value has increased by 54 percentage points, moving from the cold range to the over - heated range [5]. - Specific indicators: The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate has increased to 2.01, with the past - year percentile value rising by 2 percentage points to 92%; the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate has increased to 0.1, with the past - year percentile value rising by 7 percentage points to 25%; the TL/T long - short ratio has increased to 1.01, with the past - year percentile value rising by 54 percentage points to 81%; the full - market turnover rate has increased to 19.13%, with the past - year percentile value rising by 10 percentage points to 53%; the institutional leverage has decreased to 88.14%, with the past - year percentile value dropping by 13 percentage points to 87%; the long - term Treasury bond trading proportion has increased to 65.77%, with the past - year percentile value rising by 27 percentage points to 73% [15][26]. 3.2.2. Institutional Behavior Indicators - The proportion of institutional behavior indicators in the over - heated range has decreased to 38%, in the neutral range has increased to 50%, and in the cold range has decreased to 13%. The fund duration percentile value has dropped by 25 percentage points to 49%, moving from the over - heated range to the neutral range; the bond - fund profit - taking pressure has dropped by 27 percentage points, moving from the neutral range to the cold range; the listed companies' wealth - management purchase volume and the fund - rural commercial bank purchase volume percentile values have increased by 56 and 63 percentage points respectively, both moving from the cold range to the neutral range [6][24]. - Specific indicators: The fund duration has decreased to 2.93 years, with the past - year percentile value dropping by 25 percentage points to 49%; the fund divergence has increased to 0.46, with the past - year percentile value dropping by 4 percentage points to 90%; the bond - fund profit - taking pressure has decreased to 15.93%, with the past - year percentile value dropping by 27 percentage points to 36%; the money - tightness expectation index has decreased to 0.93, with the past - year percentile value rising by 7 percentage points to 61%; the allocation - disk strength has decreased to 0.21%, with the past - year percentile value dropping by 4 percentage points to 86%; the listed companies' wealth - management purchase volume has increased to 116.4 billion, with the past - year percentile value rising by 56 percentage points to 69% [15][27]. 3.2.3. Spread Indicators - The policy spread has slightly narrowed from 8bp to 5bp, with the corresponding percentile value rising by 11 percentage points to 32%, still in the cold range. The credit spread is basically the same as the previous period. The average spread of the agricultural development - state - owned development spread, IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread has widened from 18bp to 20bp, and its percentile value has dropped by 5 percentage points to 42%, in the neutral range [7][30][32]. 3.2.4. Price - ratio Indicators - The proportion of price - ratio indicators in the cold range has increased to 100%. The stock - bond and commodity price - ratio percentile values have dropped by 17 and 22 percentage points respectively to 19% and 33%. The commodity price ratio has moved from the neutral range to the cold range, and the real - estate price ratio has slightly increased by 2 percentage points to 2% [8][32]. - Specific indicators: The market spread has a percentile value of 42%, in the neutral range; the policy spread has a percentile value of 32%, in the cold range; the stock - bond price ratio has decreased to 11.3%, with the past - year percentile value dropping by 17 percentage points to 32%; the commodity price ratio has decreased to - 2.4%, with the past - year percentile value dropping by 22 percentage points to 33%; the real - estate price ratio has increased to - 46.9%, with the past - year percentile value rising by 2 percentage points to 2%; the consumer goods price ratio has increased to - 9%, with the past - year percentile value rising by 9 percentage points to 18%, still in the cold range [15][32][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer for this period dropped by 5 percentage points to 51%. The indicators with relatively large declines include the TL/T long - short ratio, fund ultra - long bond buying volume, fund - rural commercial bank buying volume, and policy spread. The indicators with relatively large increases include institutional leverage, allocation disk strength, and commodity price ratio [2][14]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range this period rose to 35%. Among the 20 micro - indicators, 7 (35%) were in the over - heated range, 5 (25%) were in the neutral range, and 8 (40%) were in the cold range. The TL/T long - short ratio and policy spread dropped from the neutral range to the cold range, the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume dropped from the over - heated range to the cold range, and the commodity price ratio rose from the cold range to the neutral range [3][19]. - The average value of the price ratio matching quantile increased significantly. The trading heat quantile average decreased by 3 percentage points, the institutional behavior quantile average decreased by 11 percentage points, the spread quantile average decreased by 15 percentage points, and the price ratio quantile average increased by 10 percentage points [4][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 TL/T Long - Short Ratio Quantile Drops - In the trading heat indicators this period, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 50%, the proportion in the neutral range dropped to 17%, and the proportion in the cold range rose to 33%. The TL/T long - short ratio quantile decreased by 33 percentage points, dropping from the neutral range to the cold range [5][20]. - The 30/10Y treasury bond turnover rate dropped to 1.95%, and its past - year quantile decreased by 2 percentage points to 90% [20]. 3.2 Allocation Disk Strength Increases - In the institutional behavior indicators this period, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 50%, the proportion in the neutral range remained at 25%, and the proportion in the cold range remained at 25%. The fund - rural commercial bank buying volume quantile dropped significantly by 73 percentage points, from the over - heated range to the cold range [6][26]. - The allocation disk strength increased by 0.06 percentage points to 0.23%, and its past - year quantile also increased by 14 percentage points to 90% [27]. 3.3 Policy Spread Widens - The 3 - year treasury bond yield rose significantly this period. The policy spread widened from 0bp to 8bp, and its quantile dropped by 28 percentage points to 21%, falling into the cold range [7][29]. - The credit spread and IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened by 4bp and 1bp respectively, and the average spread of the three widened from 16bp to 18bp, with its quantile dropping by 3 percentage points to 47%, in the neutral range [7][29]. 3.4 Commodity Price Ratio Quantile Rises Significantly - The proportion of price ratio indicators in the cold range dropped to 75%, and the proportion in the neutral range rose to 25%. The real estate price ratio quantile dropped by 2 percentage points, the commodity price ratio quantile rose significantly by 40 percentage points, from the cold range to the neutral range, the consumer goods price ratio quantile also rose slightly by 9 percentage points, and the stock - bond price ratio quantile changed little [8][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer this period rose 6 percentage points to 52%, with significant increases in some indicators and slight decreases in others [2][14]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 35%, with changes in the intervals of several indicators [3][19]. - Only the average value of the matching percentile of price ratios declined, while different categories of indicators showed different trends [4][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Micro - trading Thermometer Reading - The "Guojin Securities Fixed - income Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" rose 6 percentage points to 52%. Indicators with large increases in percentile values include fund - rural commercial bank buying volume, 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, and allocation disk strength, while TL/T long - short ratio, market - wide turnover rate, stock - bond price ratio, institutional leverage, and listed company wealth management buying volume decreased slightly [2][14]. 3.2. Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range - Among 20 micro - indicators, 7 (35%) were in the over - heated range, 6 (30%) in the neutral range, and 7 (35%) in the cold range. 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover and fund - rural commercial bank buying volume moved from the cold to the over - heated range, allocation disk strength from the neutral to the over - heated range, TL/T long - short ratio from the over - heated to the neutral range, and stock - bond price ratio from the neutral to the cold range [3][19]. 3.3. Sub - categories of Indicators 3.3.1. Trading Heat - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range among trading heat indicators decreased to 50%, in the neutral range increased to 33%, and in the cold range decreased to 17%. The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate percentile rose 55 percentage points to the over - heated range, while the TL/T long - short ratio percentile decreased 22 percentage points to the neutral range [5][22]. 3.3.2. Institutional Behavior - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range among institutional behavior indicators increased to 50%, in the neutral range decreased to 25%, and in the cold range decreased to 25%. Allocation disk strength percentile rose 18 percentage points to 76% and entered the over - heated range, and fund - rural commercial bank buying volume percentile rose 67 percentage points to the over - heated range [6][24]. 3.3.3. Policy Spread - The 3 - year Treasury bond yield declined slightly, and the policy spread narrowed from 2bp to 0bp, with the percentile rising 6 percentage points to 48% (neutral range). Credit spread, agricultural development - state - owned development spread, and IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread narrowed, and their average spread percentile rose 7 percentage points to 50% (neutral range) [7][30]. 3.3.4. Stock - Bond Price Ratio - The proportion of price - ratio indicators in the cold range increased to 100%. Only the stock - bond price ratio percentile decreased 15 percentage points to the cold range, while the commodity price ratio percentile rose 6 percentage points to 15%, and the real - estate price ratio changed little [8][33].

本期相对换手率分位值明显回落，基金久期、股债比价分位值小幅回落，其余指标分位值均明显上升，TL/T 多空比、 长期国债成交占比、上市公司理财买入量、商品比价分位值分别回升 35、27、15、27 个百分点。当前拥挤度较高的 指标包括 30/10Y 国债换手率、TL/T 多空比、基金分歧度。 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量上升至 8 个（占比 40%）、位于中性区间的指标数量降至 3 个（占比 15%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量上升至 9 个（占比 45%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是，TL/T 多空比、长期国债成交占 比均由中性区间升至过热区间,30/10Y 国债换手率由过热区间降至偏冷区间，1/10Y 国债换手率由中性区间降至偏冷 区间。 分类别来看， ①由于相对换手率分位值大幅回落，虽然 TL/T 多空比、长期国债成交占比分位值分别回升 35、27 个 百分点，交易热度分位均值仍然下降 6 个百分点。②机构行为类中，债基止盈压力、上市公司理财买入量分位值分别 回升 9、15 个百分点，带动机构行为分位均值上升 3 个百分点。③市场、政策利差分别回升 4 个、5 个百分点，利差 分位均值回升 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer for the current period has increased by 3 percentage points to 52%. The number of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 35%. The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio has increased significantly, while some indicators such as the listed company's financial management purchase volume and commodity price - ratio percentile have declined to varying degrees [11][14][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Micro - trading Thermometer - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer for the current period has increased by 3 percentage points to 52% [11]. 3.2 Distribution of Indicator Ranges - Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range has increased to 7 (35%), the number in the neutral range remains 6 (30%), and the number in the cold range has decreased to 7 (35%). The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio has risen from the cold range to the over - heated range, the overall market turnover ratio and the money tightening expectation have risen from the neutral range to the over - heated range, the market spread has risen from the cold range to the over - heated range, and the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio has dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range [3][18]. 3.3 Classification of Indicators 3.3.1 Trading Heat Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 50%, and the proportion in the neutral range remains 50%. The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio percentile has increased by 87 percentage points to 96% and risen from the cold range to the over - heated range; the overall market turnover ratio percentile has increased by 6 percentage points to 75% and risen from the neutral range to the over - heated range; the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio percentile has decreased by 17 percentage points to 60% and dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range; the TL/T long - short ratio percentile has increased by 10 percentage points [5][19]. 3.3.2 Institutional Behavior Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 50%, the proportion in the neutral range has decreased to 13%, and the proportion in the cold range remains 38%. The money tightening expectation percentile has slightly increased by 1 percentage point to 70% and risen from the neutral range to the over - heated range. The listed company's financial management purchase volume has decreased by 17 percentage points to 4% [6][23]. 3.3.3 Spread Indicators - The policy spread has further narrowed by 1bp to - 1bp, and the 3 - year Treasury bond yield has fallen below the policy rate again, with its percentile continuing to rise by 5 percentage points to 59%, still in the neutral range. The credit spread, IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread, and Agricultural Development - CDB spread have changed, and the average spread has narrowed by 1bp to 18bp, with its percentile slightly rising by 1 percentage point to 41%, in the neutral range [7][30]. 3.3.4 Price - ratio Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the cold range remains 100%. The commodity price - ratio and real - estate price - ratio percentiles have decreased by 6 and 2 percentage points to 7% and 27% respectively, while the stock - bond price - ratio and consumer goods price - ratio percentiles remain the same as the previous period [8][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The micro trading thermometer reading of the bond market this period remained basically flat at 49% [10]. - The number of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 25%. The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate quantile rebounded significantly, the allocation disk strength continued to weaken, the policy spread quantile widened significantly, and all comparison indicators were in the cold range [10]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Indicator Distribution - Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 5 (25% of the total), the number in the neutral range decreased to 6 (30% of the total), and the number in the cold range increased to 9 (45% of the total). The 1/10Y turnover rate moved from the neutral range to the over - heated range, and the market spread moved from the neutral range to the cold range [3][18]. 3.2 Transaction Heat Indicators - Only the quantile of the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate decreased by 28 percentage points, while the quantiles of other indicators rebounded. The quantiles of the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, the whole - market turnover rate, and the institutional leverage increased by 21, 22, and 10 percentage points respectively. The average quantile of transaction heat increased by 4 percentage points [4]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range rose to 33%, the proportion in the neutral range rose to 50%, and the proportion in the cold range remained at 17%. The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate quantile increased by 21 percentage points, moving from the neutral range to the over - heated range [5][21]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior Indicators - The quantiles of the allocation disk strength and the listed company's wealth management purchase volume decreased by 22 and 17 percentage points respectively, while the quantiles of other indicators rebounded slightly. The average quantile of institutional behavior decreased by 4 percentage points [4]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range rose to 38%, the proportion in the neutral range decreased to 25%, and the proportion in the cold range remained at 38%. The quantiles of the allocation disk strength and the listed company's wealth management purchase volume fell to 10% and 21% respectively [6][25]. 3.4 Spread Indicators - The market spread decreased by 1 percentage point, the policy spread quantile increased by 11 percentage points, and the average quantile of spreads increased by 5 percentage points [4]. - The policy spread continued to narrow by 3bp to 0bp, and its quantile increased by 11 percentage points to 54%, remaining in the neutral range. The credit spread, IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread, and Agricultural Development - National Development spread were basically flat, and the average spread widened slightly by 1bp to 19bp, with its quantile slightly decreasing by 1 percentage point to 39%, remaining in the neutral range [6][29]. 3.5 Comparison Indicators - The quantile of the stock - bond comparison decreased by 2 percentage points, the quantile of the commodity comparison increased by 1 percentage point, and other comparison indicators changed little. The average quantile of comparisons was basically flat compared with the previous period [4]. - All comparison indicators were in the cold range. The quantile of the stock - bond comparison continued to fall by 2 percentage points to 36%, the quantile of the commodity comparison increased slightly by 1 percentage point to 13%, and the quantile of the real - estate comparison was basically flat [7][32].

Group 1: Overall Report Summary - The reading of the bond market micro - trading thermometer increased by 5 percentage points to 48%. Except for the spread congestion, the average quantile of other indicators rose. High - congestion indicators include the purchase volume of ultra - long bonds by funds [2][14]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased slightly to 15%. Among 20 micro - indicators, 3 were in the over - heated range (15%), 9 were in the neutral range (45%), and 8 were in the cold range (40%). The TL/T long - short ratio moved from the cold to the neutral range, while the allocation disk strength and the stock - bond ratio moved from the neutral to the cold range [3][19]. Group 2: Indicator Category Analysis Trading Heat Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 17%, in the neutral range increased to 67%, and in the cold range decreased to 17%. The TL/T long - short ratio quantile rose 40 percentage points to 49%, moving from the cold to the neutral range. The 30/10Y and 1/10Y relative turnover rate quantiles rose 24 and 14 percentage points respectively, driving the average trading heat quantile up 13 percentage points [5][21]. Institutional Behavior Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range rose to 25%, in the neutral range dropped to 38%, and in the cold range rose to 38%. The allocation disk strength quantile dropped 35 percentage points to 33%, moving from the neutral to the cold range. The average institutional behavior quantile rose slightly by 2 percentage points [6][26]. Spread Indicators - The spread quantile average dropped slightly by 1 percentage point. The market spread dropped 4 percentage points, while the policy spread quantile rose 2 percentage points. The policy spread narrowed slightly by 1bp to 3bp, with the quantile rising to 43% and remaining in the neutral range. The average of credit spread, IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread, and Agricultural Development - National Development spread widened slightly by 1bp to 18bp, with the quantile dropping 4 percentage points to 40% and remaining in the neutral range [4][7]. Comparison Ratio Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the cold range rose to 100%. The stock - bond ratio quantile dropped 2 percentage points to 38%, moving from the neutral to the cold range. The commodity and real - estate comparison ratio quantiles rose 5 and 4 percentage points respectively, remaining in the cold range. The consumer goods comparison ratio remained in the cold range. The average comparison ratio quantile rose 2 percentage points [8][33].