1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the bond market's micro - trading thermometer this period has increased by 5 percentage points to 55%. The number of indicators in the over - heated range remains at 35%. The trading heat has generally increased, while the bond - fund profit - taking pressure has decreased, the policy spread has slightly narrowed, and the stock - bond and commodity price - ratio percentile values have both declined [2][14][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Overall Indicator Changes - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer has increased by 5 percentage points to 55%. The trading heat indicators have increased significantly, and the percentile values of the relative turnover rate and the TL/T long - short ratio have risen. The percentile values of the listed companies' wealth - management purchase volume and the fund - rural commercial bank purchase volume have also increased substantially. The significantly decreased indicators include the fund duration, bond - fund profit - taking pressure, and commodity price ratio. Currently, indicators with high congestion levels include the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, fund divergence, fund ultra - long - term bond purchase volume, and allocation - disk strength [2][14]. - Among the 20 micro - indicators, 7 (35%) are in the over - heated range, 6 (30%) are in the neutral range, and 7 (35%) are in the cold range. The TL/T long - short ratio has moved from the cold range to the over - heated range; the listed companies' wealth - management purchase volume and the fund - rural commercial bank purchase volume have moved from the cold range to the neutral range; the fund duration has moved from the over - heated range to the neutral range; the bond - fund profit - taking pressure and the commodity price ratio have moved from the neutral range to the cold range [3][19]. 3.2. Sub - category Indicator Changes 3.2.1. Trading Heat Indicators - The proportion of trading heat indicators in the over - heated range has increased to 67%, in the neutral range remains at 17%, and in the cold range has decreased to 17%. The percentile values of the relative turnover rate have all increased slightly, and the TL/T long - short ratio percentile value has increased by 54 percentage points, moving from the cold range to the over - heated range [5]. - Specific indicators: The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate has increased to 2.01, with the past - year percentile value rising by 2 percentage points to 92%; the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate has increased to 0.1, with the past - year percentile value rising by 7 percentage points to 25%; the TL/T long - short ratio has increased to 1.01, with the past - year percentile value rising by 54 percentage points to 81%; the full - market turnover rate has increased to 19.13%, with the past - year percentile value rising by 10 percentage points to 53%; the institutional leverage has decreased to 88.14%, with the past - year percentile value dropping by 13 percentage points to 87%; the long - term Treasury bond trading proportion has increased to 65.77%, with the past - year percentile value rising by 27 percentage points to 73% [15][26]. 3.2.2. Institutional Behavior Indicators - The proportion of institutional behavior indicators in the over - heated range has decreased to 38%, in the neutral range has increased to 50%, and in the cold range has decreased to 13%. The fund duration percentile value has dropped by 25 percentage points to 49%, moving from the over - heated range to the neutral range; the bond - fund profit - taking pressure has dropped by 27 percentage points, moving from the neutral range to the cold range; the listed companies' wealth - management purchase volume and the fund - rural commercial bank purchase volume percentile values have increased by 56 and 63 percentage points respectively, both moving from the cold range to the neutral range [6][24]. - Specific indicators: The fund duration has decreased to 2.93 years, with the past - year percentile value dropping by 25 percentage points to 49%; the fund divergence has increased to 0.46, with the past - year percentile value dropping by 4 percentage points to 90%; the bond - fund profit - taking pressure has decreased to 15.93%, with the past - year percentile value dropping by 27 percentage points to 36%; the money - tightness expectation index has decreased to 0.93, with the past - year percentile value rising by 7 percentage points to 61%; the allocation - disk strength has decreased to 0.21%, with the past - year percentile value dropping by 4 percentage points to 86%; the listed companies' wealth - management purchase volume has increased to 116.4 billion, with the past - year percentile value rising by 56 percentage points to 69% [15][27]. 3.2.3. Spread Indicators - The policy spread has slightly narrowed from 8bp to 5bp, with the corresponding percentile value rising by 11 percentage points to 32%, still in the cold range. The credit spread is basically the same as the previous period. The average spread of the agricultural development - state - owned development spread, IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread has widened from 18bp to 20bp, and its percentile value has dropped by 5 percentage points to 42%, in the neutral range [7][30][32]. 3.2.4. Price - ratio Indicators - The proportion of price - ratio indicators in the cold range has increased to 100%. The stock - bond and commodity price - ratio percentile values have dropped by 17 and 22 percentage points respectively to 19% and 33%. The commodity price ratio has moved from the neutral range to the cold range, and the real - estate price ratio has slightly increased by 2 percentage points to 2% [8][32]. - Specific indicators: The market spread has a percentile value of 42%, in the neutral range; the policy spread has a percentile value of 32%, in the cold range; the stock - bond price ratio has decreased to 11.3%, with the past - year percentile value dropping by 17 percentage points to 32%; the commodity price ratio has decreased to - 2.4%, with the past - year percentile value dropping by 22 percentage points to 33%; the real - estate price ratio has increased to - 46.9%, with the past - year percentile value rising by 2 percentage points to 2%; the consumer goods price ratio has increased to - 9%, with the past - year percentile value rising by 9 percentage points to 18%, still in the cold range [15][32][33].

本期微观交易温度计读数回落 5 个百分点至 51% 其中回落幅度较大的包括 TL/T 多空比、基金超长债买入量、基金-农商买入量、政策利差，回升幅度较大的包括机 构杠杆、配置盘力度、商品比价。当前拥挤度较高的指标包括 30/10Y 国债换手率、机构杠杆、基金分歧度、配置盘 力度。 本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比升至 35% 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量仍为 7 个（占比 35%）、位于中性区间的指标数量降至 5 个（占比 25%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量升至 8 个（占比 40%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是，TL/T 多空比、政策利差均由中性 区间降至偏冷区间，基金-农商买入量则由过热区间降至偏冷区间，商品比价由偏冷区间升至中性区间。 比价匹配分位均值明显回升 分类别来看，①交易热度中，国债相对换手率分位值略有回落，TL/T 多空比分位值降幅较大达 33 个百分点，机构杠 杆分位值则回升 18 个百分点，交易热度分位均值下降 3 个百分点。②机构行为类中多数指标分位值回落，基金超长 债买入量、基金-农商买入量分位值回落幅度较大，分别为 12、73 个百分点，带动机构行为分位均值下降 11 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer this period rose 6 percentage points to 52%, with significant increases in some indicators and slight decreases in others [2][14]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 35%, with changes in the intervals of several indicators [3][19]. - Only the average value of the matching percentile of price ratios declined, while different categories of indicators showed different trends [4][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Micro - trading Thermometer Reading - The "Guojin Securities Fixed - income Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" rose 6 percentage points to 52%. Indicators with large increases in percentile values include fund - rural commercial bank buying volume, 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, and allocation disk strength, while TL/T long - short ratio, market - wide turnover rate, stock - bond price ratio, institutional leverage, and listed company wealth management buying volume decreased slightly [2][14]. 3.2. Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range - Among 20 micro - indicators, 7 (35%) were in the over - heated range, 6 (30%) in the neutral range, and 7 (35%) in the cold range. 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover and fund - rural commercial bank buying volume moved from the cold to the over - heated range, allocation disk strength from the neutral to the over - heated range, TL/T long - short ratio from the over - heated to the neutral range, and stock - bond price ratio from the neutral to the cold range [3][19]. 3.3. Sub - categories of Indicators 3.3.1. Trading Heat - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range among trading heat indicators decreased to 50%, in the neutral range increased to 33%, and in the cold range decreased to 17%. The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate percentile rose 55 percentage points to the over - heated range, while the TL/T long - short ratio percentile decreased 22 percentage points to the neutral range [5][22]. 3.3.2. Institutional Behavior - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range among institutional behavior indicators increased to 50%, in the neutral range decreased to 25%, and in the cold range decreased to 25%. Allocation disk strength percentile rose 18 percentage points to 76% and entered the over - heated range, and fund - rural commercial bank buying volume percentile rose 67 percentage points to the over - heated range [6][24]. 3.3.3. Policy Spread - The 3 - year Treasury bond yield declined slightly, and the policy spread narrowed from 2bp to 0bp, with the percentile rising 6 percentage points to 48% (neutral range). Credit spread, agricultural development - state - owned development spread, and IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread narrowed, and their average spread percentile rose 7 percentage points to 50% (neutral range) [7][30]. 3.3.4. Stock - Bond Price Ratio - The proportion of price - ratio indicators in the cold range increased to 100%. Only the stock - bond price ratio percentile decreased 15 percentage points to the cold range, while the commodity price ratio percentile rose 6 percentage points to 15%, and the real - estate price ratio changed little [8][33].

本期相对换手率分位值明显回落，基金久期、股债比价分位值小幅回落，其余指标分位值均明显上升，TL/T 多空比、 长期国债成交占比、上市公司理财买入量、商品比价分位值分别回升 35、27、15、27 个百分点。当前拥挤度较高的 指标包括 30/10Y 国债换手率、TL/T 多空比、基金分歧度。 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量上升至 8 个（占比 40%）、位于中性区间的指标数量降至 3 个（占比 15%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量上升至 9 个（占比 45%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是，TL/T 多空比、长期国债成交占 比均由中性区间升至过热区间,30/10Y 国债换手率由过热区间降至偏冷区间，1/10Y 国债换手率由中性区间降至偏冷 区间。 分类别来看， ①由于相对换手率分位值大幅回落，虽然 TL/T 多空比、长期国债成交占比分位值分别回升 35、27 个 百分点，交易热度分位均值仍然下降 6 个百分点。②机构行为类中，债基止盈压力、上市公司理财买入量分位值分别 回升 9、15 个百分点，带动机构行为分位均值上升 3 个百分点。③市场、政策利差分别回升 4 个、5 个百分点，利差 分位均值回升 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer for the current period has increased by 3 percentage points to 52%. The number of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 35%. The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio has increased significantly, while some indicators such as the listed company's financial management purchase volume and commodity price - ratio percentile have declined to varying degrees [11][14][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Micro - trading Thermometer - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer for the current period has increased by 3 percentage points to 52% [11]. 3.2 Distribution of Indicator Ranges - Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range has increased to 7 (35%), the number in the neutral range remains 6 (30%), and the number in the cold range has decreased to 7 (35%). The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio has risen from the cold range to the over - heated range, the overall market turnover ratio and the money tightening expectation have risen from the neutral range to the over - heated range, the market spread has risen from the cold range to the over - heated range, and the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio has dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range [3][18]. 3.3 Classification of Indicators 3.3.1 Trading Heat Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 50%, and the proportion in the neutral range remains 50%. The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio percentile has increased by 87 percentage points to 96% and risen from the cold range to the over - heated range; the overall market turnover ratio percentile has increased by 6 percentage points to 75% and risen from the neutral range to the over - heated range; the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio percentile has decreased by 17 percentage points to 60% and dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range; the TL/T long - short ratio percentile has increased by 10 percentage points [5][19]. 3.3.2 Institutional Behavior Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 50%, the proportion in the neutral range has decreased to 13%, and the proportion in the cold range remains 38%. The money tightening expectation percentile has slightly increased by 1 percentage point to 70% and risen from the neutral range to the over - heated range. The listed company's financial management purchase volume has decreased by 17 percentage points to 4% [6][23]. 3.3.3 Spread Indicators - The policy spread has further narrowed by 1bp to - 1bp, and the 3 - year Treasury bond yield has fallen below the policy rate again, with its percentile continuing to rise by 5 percentage points to 59%, still in the neutral range. The credit spread, IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread, and Agricultural Development - CDB spread have changed, and the average spread has narrowed by 1bp to 18bp, with its percentile slightly rising by 1 percentage point to 41%, in the neutral range [7][30]. 3.3.4 Price - ratio Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the cold range remains 100%. The commodity price - ratio and real - estate price - ratio percentiles have decreased by 6 and 2 percentage points to 7% and 27% respectively, while the stock - bond price - ratio and consumer goods price - ratio percentiles remain the same as the previous period [8][30].

本期 30/10Y 国债换手率、配置盘力度、上市公司理财买入量分位值下降幅度相对较大，1/10Y 国债换手率、全市场换 手率、政策利差分位值不同程度回升。 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量上升至 5 个（占比 25%）、位于中性区间的指标数量下降至 6 个（占比 30%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量上升至 9 个（占比 45%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是，1/10Y 换手率由中性区间升至过 热区间，市场利差则由中性区间降至偏冷区间。 分类别来看，①本期交易热度指标中，仅 30/10Y 国债换手率分位值下降 28 个百分点，其余指标分位值均回升，1/10Y 国债换手率、全市场换手率、机构杠杆分位值分别上升 21、22、10 个百分点，交易热度分位均值上升 4 个百分点。 ②机构行为类中，配置盘力度、上市公司理财买入量分位值分别下降 22、17 个百分点，其余指标分位值均小幅回升， 机构行为均值回落 4 个百分点。③市场利差回落 1 个百分点，政策利差分位值回升 11 个百分点，利差分位均值回升 5 个百分点。④股债比价分位值回落 2 个百分点，商品比价分位值上升 1 个百分点，其余比价指标变动不大， ...

Group 1: Overall Report Summary - The reading of the bond market micro - trading thermometer increased by 5 percentage points to 48%. Except for the spread congestion, the average quantile of other indicators rose. High - congestion indicators include the purchase volume of ultra - long bonds by funds [2][14]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased slightly to 15%. Among 20 micro - indicators, 3 were in the over - heated range (15%), 9 were in the neutral range (45%), and 8 were in the cold range (40%). The TL/T long - short ratio moved from the cold to the neutral range, while the allocation disk strength and the stock - bond ratio moved from the neutral to the cold range [3][19]. Group 2: Indicator Category Analysis Trading Heat Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 17%, in the neutral range increased to 67%, and in the cold range decreased to 17%. The TL/T long - short ratio quantile rose 40 percentage points to 49%, moving from the cold to the neutral range. The 30/10Y and 1/10Y relative turnover rate quantiles rose 24 and 14 percentage points respectively, driving the average trading heat quantile up 13 percentage points [5][21]. Institutional Behavior Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range rose to 25%, in the neutral range dropped to 38%, and in the cold range rose to 38%. The allocation disk strength quantile dropped 35 percentage points to 33%, moving from the neutral to the cold range. The average institutional behavior quantile rose slightly by 2 percentage points [6][26]. Spread Indicators - The spread quantile average dropped slightly by 1 percentage point. The market spread dropped 4 percentage points, while the policy spread quantile rose 2 percentage points. The policy spread narrowed slightly by 1bp to 3bp, with the quantile rising to 43% and remaining in the neutral range. The average of credit spread, IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread, and Agricultural Development - National Development spread widened slightly by 1bp to 18bp, with the quantile dropping 4 percentage points to 40% and remaining in the neutral range [4][7]. Comparison Ratio Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the cold range rose to 100%. The stock - bond ratio quantile dropped 2 percentage points to 38%, moving from the neutral to the cold range. The commodity and real - estate comparison ratio quantiles rose 5 and 4 percentage points respectively, remaining in the cold range. The consumer goods comparison ratio remained in the cold range. The average comparison ratio quantile rose 2 percentage points [8][33].