1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The micro - trading thermometer reading for this period increased by 1 percentage point to 59%. A few indicator percentile values declined, while the percentile values of institutional leverage, fund - small and medium - sized bank buying volume, and fund divergence increased significantly. The indicators with high congestion currently include the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, allocation disk strength, and policy spread [3][15]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 45%. Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range rose to 9 (45%), the number in the neutral range decreased to 6 (30%), and the number in the cold range remained at 5 (25%) [4][23]. - The trading heat continued to rise. The trading heat percentile average increased by 5 percentage points, the institutional behavior percentile average increased by 6 percentage points, the spread percentile average decreased by 3 percentage points, and the price - ratio percentile average remained unchanged [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. This period's micro - trading thermometer reading increased by 1 percentage point to 59% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed - Income Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" rose slightly by 1 percentage point to 59%. A few indicator percentile values declined, including the commodity price - ratio, 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, stock - bond price - ratio, and market spread, which decreased by 28, 22, 12, and 10 percentage points respectively. The percentile values of institutional leverage, fund - small and medium - sized bank buying volume, and fund divergence increased significantly, by 47, 20, and 14 percentage points respectively [3][15]. 3.2. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 45% 3.2.1. Institutional leverage continued to rise - In the trading heat - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 67%, the proportion in the neutral range remained at 33%, and the proportion in the cold range decreased to 0%. The institutional leverage percentile value increased by 47 percentage points to 73%, rising from the cold range to the over - heated range [6][25]. 3.2.2. The buying scale of small and medium - sized banks declined - In the institutional behavior - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 38%, the proportion in the neutral range decreased to 25%, and the proportion in the cold range remained at 38%. The fund divergence and listed company wealth - management buying volume increased by 14 and 12 percentage points to 76% and 76% respectively, rising from the neutral range to the over - heated range. Due to the decline in the buying scale of small and medium - sized banks, the fund - small and medium - sized bank scale increased, and the percentile value also increased by 20 percentage points [7][28]. 3.2.3. Policy spread compressed - The policy spread decreased by 3bp to - 5bp, and the corresponding percentile value increased by 4 percentage points to 99%, still in the over - heated range. The credit spread increased by 1bp to 50bp, the Agricultural Development - State Development spread remained basically the same as the previous period, and the IRS - 3M Shibor spread increased by 3bp to 4bp. The average spread of the three was 18bp, and its percentile value decreased by 3 percentage points to 63%, still in the neutral range [8][33]. 3.2.4. The commodity price - ratio percentile value dropped significantly - Among the price - ratio - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 25%, the proportion in the neutral range remained at 25%, and the proportion in the cold range increased to 50%. The stock - bond and commodity price - ratio percentile values decreased by 12 percentage points to 0%, remaining in the cold range; the commodity price - ratio percentile value decreased by 28 percentage points to 52%, dropping from the over - heated range to the neutral range; the real - estate price - ratio percentile value decreased by 6 percentage points to 39%, dropping from the neutral range to the cold range [9][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - Transaction Thermometer" reading rose 3 percentage points to 58%. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 35%, and the trading heat continued to rise, but the trends of various indicators were different [3][15][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.本期微观交易温度计读数上升 3 个百分点至 58% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - Transaction Thermometer" increased by 3 percentage points to 58%. The consumer goods price ratio, full - market turnover, fund divergence, and listed company wealth management purchase volume percentile increased by 46, 24, 20, and 16 percentage points respectively, while the fund - small and medium - sized bank purchase volume, stock - bond price ratio, and real estate price ratio percentile decreased by 43, 16, and 14 percentage points respectively. The market and policy spreads widened, and their percentiles decreased by 2 and 3 percentage points respectively. Currently, indicators with high congestion include the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, allocation disk strength, and policy spread [3][15] 3.2.本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比降至 35% 3.2.1. 全市场换手率持续上升 - In the trading heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range rose to 50%, and the proportion in the neutral range dropped significantly to 33%, while the proportion in the cold range remained at 17%. The full - market turnover rate percentile continued to rise 24 percentage points to 76%, moving from the neutral range to the over - heated range [22] 3.2.2.中小行买入规模明显上升 - In the institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 13%, the proportion in the neutral range dropped to 50%, and the proportion in the cold range rose to 38%. The fund - small and medium - sized bank purchase volume decreased 43 percentage points to 10%, moving from the neutral range to the cold range [26] 3.2.3.政策、市场利差均走阔 - The policy spread rose 1bp to - 3bp, and its percentile decreased 2 percentage points to 97%, still in the over - heated range. The credit spread decreased 1bp to 49bp, the Agricultural Development - National Development spread was basically flat, and the IRS - 3M Shibor spread rose 3bp to 1bp. The average spread of the three was 17bp, and its percentile decreased 3 percentage points to 63%, still in the neutral range [30] 3.2.4.耐用消费品比价大幅上升 - In the price ratio indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range rose to 50%, the proportion in the cold range dropped to 25%, and the proportion in the neutral range dropped to 25%. The stock - bond price ratio percentile decreased 16 percentage points to 12%, remaining in the cold range; the commodity price ratio percentile rose 15 percentage points to 80%, moving from the neutral range to the over - heated range; the real estate price ratio percentile decreased 14 percentage points to 67%, remaining in the neutral range; the consumer goods price ratio percentile rose significantly by 46 percentage points, moving from the cold range to the over - heated range [9][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer in this period rebounded by 5 percentage points to 56%. A few indicators' quantile values declined, while others rebounded to varying degrees. Currently, indicators with high congestion include the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and policy spread. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range dropped to 20%. Among 20 micro - indicators, the number in the over - heated range decreased to 4 (20%), in the neutral range increased to 11 (55%), and in the cold range decreased to 5 (25%). Some indicators changed their ranges [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Micro - trading Thermometer Reading Rebound - The "Guojin Securities Fixed - Income Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" rebounded by 5 percentage points to 56% compared with the previous period. The quantile values of stock - bond ratio, TL/T long - short ratio, commodity ratio, and monetary tightness expectation decreased by 47, 28, 5, and 1 percentage points respectively. The quantile values of fund divergence, allocation power, and fund - small and medium - sized bank buying volume increased significantly by 35, 20, and 35 percentage points respectively [3][15]. 3.2 Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range Decreased - Among 20 micro - indicators, 4 were in the over - heated range (20%), 11 in the neutral range (55%), and 5 in the cold range (25%). TL/T long - short ratio and commodity ratio dropped from the over - heated to the neutral range; stock - bond ratio dropped from the over - heated to the cold range; full - market turnover rate, fund divergence, listed company wealth - management buying volume, and fund - small and medium - sized bank buying volume rose from the cold to the neutral range; allocation power rose from the neutral to the over - heated range [4][19]. - **Full - market Turnover Rate Quantile Rebound**: In trading heat indicators, the proportion of those in the over - heated range dropped to 33%, in the neutral range rose to 50%, and in the cold range dropped to 17%. Only the TL/T long - short ratio quantile decreased by 28 percentage points to 60% and moved from the over - heated to the neutral range, while the full - market turnover rate quantile increased by 15 percentage points to 52% and moved from the cold to the neutral range [6][20]. - **Fund - Small and Medium - Sized Bank Buying Volume Quantile Increase**: In institutional behavior indicators, the proportion in the over - heated range remained at 13%, in the neutral range rose to 63%, and in the cold range dropped to 25%. The quantile values of fund divergence, fund - small and medium - sized bank buying volume, and listed company wealth - management buying volume rebounded significantly by 35, 35, and 11 percentage points respectively and moved from the cold to the neutral range; the allocation power quantile continued to rise by 20 percentage points and moved from the neutral to the over - heated range [7][23]. - **Slight Narrowing of Policy Spread**: The policy spread fell by 2bp to - 4bp, and its quantile rose by 11 percentage points to 97%, remaining in the over - heated range. The credit spread rose by 1 percentage point to 50bp, the Agricultural Development - State Development spread was basically the same as the previous period, and the IRS - 3M Shibor spread fell by 1bp to - 2bp. The average of the three spreads remained at 16bp, and its quantile rose slightly by 1 percentage point to 67%, still in the neutral range [8][32]. - **Significant Drop in Stock - Bond Ratio Quantile**: In comparison indicators, the proportion in the over - heated range dropped to 0%. The proportion in the cold range remained at 50%, and in the neutral range rose to 50%. The quantile values of stock - bond and commodity ratios dropped by 47 and 5 percentage points to 28% and 65% respectively, moving from the over - heated to the cold and neutral ranges respectively [9][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer in the bond market dropped by 7 percentage points to 53% this period. The quantile values of comparison - based indicators continued to rise, while most other indicator quantile values declined. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 35% [3][15][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Micro - trading Thermometer Reading - The "Guojin Securities Fixed - Income Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped by 7 percentage points to 53% compared with the previous period. The quantile values of comparison - based indicators such as stock - bond, commodity, and real - estate comparison increased by 12, 8, and 8 percentage points respectively. Only a few indicators like TL/T long - short ratio, fund duration and divergence, and allocation disk strength had a slight increase in quantile values. Many other indicators' quantile values declined, and currently, the only indicator with high congestion is the bond fund profit - taking pressure [3][15]. 3.2 Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range - Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 7 (35%), the number in the neutral range decreased to 5 (25%), and the number in the cold range increased to 8 (40%). The all - market turnover rate, institutional leverage, and listed company wealth management purchase volume dropped from the neutral to the cold range, while the stock - bond and commodity comparison both rose from the neutral to the over - heated range [4][18]. 3.3 1Y Treasury Bond Turnover Rate - In the trading heat - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 50%, the proportion in the neutral range dropped significantly to 17%, and the proportion in the cold range increased to 33%. Only the TL/T long - short ratio quantile value increased by 5 percentage points to 88%, while the institutional leverage and all - market turnover rate quantile values decreased by 26 and 19 percentage points respectively, both dropping from the neutral to the cold range. The 1/10Y and 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate quantile values also decreased by 25 and 13 percentage points [6][21]. 3.4 Wide - money Expectation - In the institutional behavior - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 13%, the proportion in the neutral range decreased to 25%, and the proportion in the cold range increased to 63%. The quantile value of the fund - small and medium - sized bank purchase volume dropped significantly by 69 percentage points from the over - heated to the cold range; the quantile value of the listed company wealth management purchase volume dropped by 5 percentage points to 38%, from the neutral to the cold range. In addition, the quantile value of the allocation disk strength increased by 12 percentage points, while the quantile values of the fund's purchase of ultra - long bonds and the money tightness expectation decreased by 18 and 12 percentage points respectively [7][25]. 3.5 Policy Spread - The policy spread remained at - 2bp, with the quantile value dropping by 6 percentage points to 86%, still in the over - heated range. The credit spread and the Agricultural Development - National Development spread remained basically the same as before, at 49bp and 0bp respectively, while the IRS - 3M Shibor spread slightly widened by 1bp to - 1bp. The average of the three spreads remained at 16bp, with the quantile value dropping by 3 percentage points to 66%, still in the neutral range [8][29]. 3.6 Consumer Goods Comparison Quantile Value - The proportion of comparison - based indicators in the over - heated range increased to 50%, the proportion in the cold range decreased to 25%, and the proportion in the neutral range remained at 25%. The quantile values of the stock - bond and commodity comparison increased by 12 and 8 percentage points to 76% and 70% respectively, both rising from the neutral to the over - heated range; the real - estate comparison quantile value increased by 8 percentage points to 65% [9][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The "Guojin Securities Fixed - Income Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" reading remained flat at 57% this period. Various indicators showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 30% [3][15][19] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Micro - trading Thermometer Reading - The "Guojin Securities Fixed - Income Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" reading was basically flat at 57%. The full - market turnover rate and policy interest rate differential percentile increased by 18 and 15 percentage points respectively. The percentile of indicators such as 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, fund's ultra - long bond purchase volume, and money tightness expectation rebounded slightly. Meanwhile, the allocation disk strength, TL/T long - short ratio, listed company's wealth management purchase volume, and commodity price ratio percentile decreased by 16, 9, 6, and 6 percentage points respectively. Currently, indicators with high congestion include 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, TL/T long - short ratio, institutional leverage, and bond fund's profit - taking pressure [3][15] 3.2. Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 30%. Among 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range decreased by 6 (30% in proportion), the number of indicators in the neutral range increased to 9 (45% in proportion), and the number of indicators in the cold range decreased to 5 (25% in proportion). The allocation disk strength percentile dropped by 16 percentage points, moving from the over - heated range to the neutral range [4][19] 3.2.1. Full - market Turnover Rate Increase - In the trading heat - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 67%, the proportion of indicators in the neutral range remained at 33%, and the proportion of indicators in the cold range remained at 0%. The full - market turnover rate percentile continued to rise by 15 percentage points to 66%, and the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate percentile rose by 4 percentage points to 99% [6][22] 3.2.2. Slight Decline in Allocation Disk Strength - Among the institutional behavior - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 13%, the proportion of indicators in the neutral range increased to 38%, and the proportion of indicators in the cold range decreased to 50%. The allocation disk strength percentile decreased by 16 percentage points to 69%, moving from the over - heated range to the neutral range [7][25] 3.2.3. Continued Narrowing of Policy Interest Rate Differential - The yield of 3 - year Treasury bonds continued to decline, corresponding to a narrowing of the policy interest rate differential by 2bp to - 2bp, and the corresponding percentile continued to rise by 12 percentage points to 87%, still in the over - heated range. The credit spread and the spread between Agricultural Development Bank and China Development Bank bonds remained the same as the previous period. The IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread narrowed slightly by 1bp to - 1bp. The average spread of the three remained at 17bp, and its percentile rose slightly by 2 percentage points to 63%, still in the neutral range [8][32] 3.2.4. Decline in Commodity Price Ratio Percentile - Among the price ratio - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the cold range remained at 75%, and the proportion of indicators in the neutral range remained at 25%. The stock - bond and real estate price ratio percentiles increased by 4 and 2 percentage points to 61% and 53% respectively, while the commodity price ratio percentile decreased by 6 percentage points [9][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" reading continued to rise to 57%, up 3 percentage points from the previous period. Some indicators' positions increased, while others decreased. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 35% [15][21]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Micro - trading Thermometer Reading - The micro - trading thermometer reading continued to rise to 57%. The positions of institutional leverage, policy spread, bond fund profit - taking pressure, stock - bond ratio, and overall market turnover rate increased by 48, 18, 18, 16, and 12 percentage points respectively. The TL/T long - short ratio and commodity ratio positions also rose by 11 percentage points. However, the position values of fund - small and medium - sized bank buying volume, long - term treasury bond trading volume ratio, and listed company wealth management buying volume decreased by 33, 18, and 15 percentage points respectively [3][15]. 3.2. Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range - Among the 20 micro - indicators, 7 (35%) were in the over - heated range, 7 (35%) were in the neutral range, and 6 (30%) were in the cold range. The long - term treasury bond trading volume ratio and listed company wealth management buying volume dropped from the over - heated range to the cold range; institutional leverage and policy spread rose from the neutral range to the over - heated range; the overall market turnover rate rose from the cold range to the neutral range [4][21]. 3.3. Long - term Treasury Bond Trading Volume Ratio - In the trading heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 67%, the proportion in the neutral range rose to 33%, and the proportion in the cold range dropped to 0%. The overall market turnover rate position increased by 12 percentage points, rising from the cold range to the neutral range; institutional leverage position increased by 48 percentage points, rising from the neutral range to the over - heated range; the long - term treasury bond trading volume ratio position decreased by 18 percentage points, dropping from the over - heated range to the neutral range [6][22]. 3.4. Bond Fund Profit - taking Pressure - In the institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range dropped to 25%, the proportion in the neutral range remained at 13%, and the proportion in the cold range rose to 63%. The listed company wealth management buying volume position decreased by 15 percentage points to 58%, dropping from the over - heated range to the neutral range; the fund - small and medium - sized bank buying volume position decreased by 33 percentage points to 31%, dropping from the neutral range to the cold range [7][26]. 3.5. Policy Spread - The yield of 3 - year treasury bonds continued to decline, the policy spread narrowed by 2bp to 0bp, and the position value rose slightly by 18 percentage points to 76%, rising from the neutral range to the over - heated range. The credit spread and agricultural development - state - owned development spread remained the same as the previous period, the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened by 3bp, and the average spread of the three widened slightly by 1bp to 17bp. Its position value decreased by 4 percentage points to 61%, still in the neutral range [8][32]. 3.6. Stock - Bond Ratio - Among the ratio indicators, the proportion of indicators in the cold range remained at 75%, and the proportion in the neutral range remained at 25%. The position values of stock - bond, commodity, and real estate ratios increased by 16, 11, and 18 percentage points to 57%, 56%, and 51% respectively, all still in the neutral range [9][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The reading of the bond market micro - trading thermometer has rebounded to 48%, an increase of 8 percentage points from the previous period. Most indicator quantiles have risen, with only a few showing a decline [13]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has increased to 25%. Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number in the over - heated range has risen to 5 (25%), in the neutral range to 8 (40%), and in the cold range has decreased to 7 (35%) [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1.本期微观交易温度计读数转为回升至 48% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed - Income Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" has rebounded 8 percentage points to 48%. Only the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, fund divergence, and market interest rate quantile have dropped by 8, 2, and 1 percentage points respectively, while others have increased to varying degrees [13]. 3.2.本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比升至 25% - **Transaction Heat Indicators**: The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 50%, and the proportion in the neutral range remains 50%, with the proportion in the cold range dropping to 0%. The TL/T long - short ratio has risen from the cold range to the over - heated range, and most other indicator quantiles have slightly rebounded [18]. - **Institutional Behavior Indicators**: The proportions of indicators in the over - heated, neutral, and cold ranges remain 25%, 25%, and 50% respectively. The trading - allocation buying volume quantile has increased by 22 percentage points, and the quantiles of money tightness expectation, allocation disk strength, and listed company wealth management buying volume have also slightly rebounded [22]. - **Interest Rate Spread**: The policy interest rate spread has narrowed by 3bp to 3bp, with the quantile rising by 20 percentage points to 54% and moving from the cold range to the neutral range. The credit spread has widened by 2bp to 54bp, the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread has narrowed by 1bp to - 1bp, and the Agricultural Development - Guokai spread remains flat. The average of the three spreads remains at 17bp, and its quantile has slightly dropped by 1 percentage point to 59%, still in the neutral range [27]. - **Price Ratio**: The proportion of price - ratio indicators in the cold range has dropped to 75%, and in the neutral range has increased to 25%. The commodity price - ratio quantile has rebounded by 16 percentage points to 34%, moving from the cold range to the neutral range. The stock - bond and real - estate price - ratio quantiles have also rebounded by 3 and 14 percentage points respectively [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 3 percentage points to 40%. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 20%, while the proportion in the neutral range increased to 30%, and the proportion in the cold range remained at 50%. The average value of institutional behavior quantiles increased [14][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. This period's micro - trading thermometer reading continued to decline to 40% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 3 percentage points to 40%. TL/T long - short ratio, policy spread, and fund - rural commercial bank buying volume quantiles decreased by 54, 42, and 27 percentage points respectively. Real estate price ratio, fund ultra - long - term bond buying volume, and 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate quantiles also declined to varying degrees. Allocation strength and listed company wealth management buying volume quantiles increased by 41 and 33 percentage points respectively, and the quantiles of indicators such as the whole - market turnover rate and market spread slightly rebounded [14]. 3.2. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 20% - Among 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 4 (20%), the number in the neutral range increased to 6 (30%), and the number in the cold range remained at 10 (50%). TL/T long - short ratio and policy spread dropped from the over - heated range to the cold range; fund ultra - long - term bond buying volume dropped from the neutral range to the cold range; allocation strength rose from the neutral range to the over - heated range; listed company wealth management buying volume and the whole - market turnover rate rose from the cold range to the neutral range [18]. - The average value of institutional behavior quantiles increased. In trading heat, only the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and TL/T long - short ratio quantiles decreased by 6 and 54 percentage points respectively, driving the average trading heat quantile down by 5 percentage points. In institutional behavior indicators, allocation strength and listed company wealth management buying volume increased by 41 and 33 percentage points respectively, driving the average institutional behavior quantile up by 3 percentage points. The market spread quantile increased by 14 percentage points, and the policy spread quantile decreased by 42 percentage points, driving the average spread quantile down by 14 percentage points. The real estate price ratio quantile decreased by 16 percentage points, driving the average price ratio quantile down by 2 percentage points [18]. 3.2.1. TL/T long - short ratio dropped to the cold range - In trading heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 33%, the proportion in the neutral range increased to 50%, and the proportion in the cold range remained at 17%. The TL/T long - short ratio quantile decreased by 54 percentage points, dropping from the over - heated range to the cold range. The whole - market turnover rate quantile rebounded by 16 percentage points, rising from the cold range to the neutral range [19]. 3.2.2. Allocation strength rebounded - In institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 25%, the proportion in the neutral range remained at 25%, and the proportion in the cold range decreased to 50%. The fund ultra - long - term bond buying volume quantile decreased by 14 percentage points, dropping from the neutral range to the cold range. Allocation strength and listed company wealth management buying volume quantiles increased by 41 and 33 percentage points to 84% and 56% respectively, with the former rising to the over - heated range and the latter to the neutral range [25]. 3.2.3. Policy spread dropped from the over - heated range to the cold range - The yield of 3 - year Treasury bonds rose 8bp, and the policy spread widened 8bp to 6bp. The corresponding quantile continued to decline 42 percentage points to 34%, dropping from the over - heated range to the cold range. The credit spread and agricultural development - state - owned bank spread narrowed by 9bp and 2bp to 52bp and - 1bp respectively, and the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened 2bp to 0bp. The average of the three spreads narrowed 3bp to 17bp, and its quantile rebounded 14 percentage points to 60%, remaining in the neutral range [30]. 3.2.4. Real estate price ratio quantile continued to decline - The proportion of price ratio indicators in the cold range remained at 100%. The stock - bond and commodity price ratio quantiles rebounded by 5 and 1 percentage points respectively, while the real estate price ratio quantile dropped significantly by 16 percentage points [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the bond market micro - trading thermometer dropped to 40%, possibly affected by the light trading before the New Year's Day holiday. Most indicator quantiles declined, while a few increased. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 25%, with changes in the distribution of indicators across different intervals [14][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Micro - trading Thermometer Reading Drops to 40% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 6 percentage points to 40%. Most indicator quantiles declined, such as institutional leverage, 1/10Y Treasury turnover rate, etc., while some like bond fund profit - taking pressure increased [14]. 3.2. Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range Remains at 25% - Among 20 micro - indicators, 5 (25%) were in the over - heated range, 5 (25%) in the neutral range, and 10 (50%) in the cold range. Some indicators changed their intervals, like 1/10Y Treasury turnover rate and institutional leverage moving from over - heated to neutral, and long - term Treasury trading proportion moving from neutral to over - heated [18]. - The average value of various spreads decreased significantly. The trading heat quantile average dropped 16 percentage points, the institutional behavior quantile average dropped 7 percentage points, the spread quantile average dropped 5 percentage points, and the comparison quantile average dropped 4 percentage points [18]. 3.2.1. Institutional Leverage Quantile Drops Significantly - In trading heat indicators, the proportion of over - heated indicators dropped to 50%, neutral to 33%, and cold remained at 17%. Institutional leverage and 1/10Y Treasury turnover rate dropped 57 and 39 percentage points respectively, moving from over - heated to neutral, while long - term Treasury trading proportion rose 18 percentage points, moving from neutral to over - heated [19]. 3.2.2. Bond Fund Profit - taking Pressure Increases - In institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of over - heated indicators rose to 13%, neutral dropped to 25%, and cold rose to 63%. Bond fund profit - taking pressure rose 55 percentage points from cold to over - heated, and the expectation of monetary tightness dropped 16 percentage points from neutral to cold [24]. 3.2.3. Spread Quantiles Drop - The policy spread widened by 2bp to - 2bp, with its quantile dropping 6 percentage points to 76%. The market spread quantile dropped 5 percentage points to 46%, remaining in the neutral range [31]. 3.2.4. Real Estate Comparison Quantile Drops Significantly - All comparison indicators were in the cold range. Stock - bond and commodity comparison quantiles dropped 3 and 1 percentage points respectively, and the real estate comparison quantile dropped 14 percentage points [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 9 percentage points from the previous period to 37%. Most of the indicator quantiles declined, with only the quantiles of allocation disk strength, policy spread, commodity price ratio, and market spread rising slightly. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 15%, and the trading heat quantile average decreased significantly [15][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1. This period's micro - trading thermometer reading dropped to 37% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 9 percentage points to 37%. Indicators with large declines included TL/T long - short ratio, fund duration, and 1/10Y Treasury turnover rate, with quantiles decreasing by 55, 41, and 11 percentage points respectively. Only the quantiles of allocation disk strength, policy spread, commodity price ratio, and market spread rose slightly. Currently, the only indicator with high congestion is the 30/10Y Treasury turnover rate [15]. 3.2. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range dropped to 15% - Among 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 3 (15%), in the neutral range decreased to 5 (25%), and in the cold range increased to 12 (60%). The TL/T long - short ratio and fund duration both dropped from the neutral range to the cold range, and the fund's ultra - long - term bond buying volume dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range [20]. - The trading heat quantile average decreased significantly. In trading heat, the quantiles of TL/T long - short ratio and 1/10Y Treasury turnover rate decreased by 55 and 11 percentage points, driving the trading heat quantile down 16 percentage points. In institutional behavior indicators, the fund duration quantile dropped 41 percentage points, and most other indicator quantiles also declined. Only the quantiles of allocation disk strength and listed company wealth management buying volume rose by 12 and 1 percentage points, and the institutional behavior quantile average decreased 12 percentage points. The market and policy spread quantiles rebounded 3 and 8 percentage points respectively, and the spread quantile average increased 6 percentage points. The commodity price ratio quantile rose 7 percentage points, driving the price ratio quantile average up 2 percentage points [20]. 3.2.1. TL/T long - short ratio decreased significantly - In trading heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 50%, in the neutral range dropped to 17%, and in the cold range rose to 33%. The TL/T long - short ratio quantile dropped 55 percentage points to 14% and moved from the neutral to the cold range. Other indicator quantiles mostly declined, with the 1/10Y Treasury turnover rate, full - market turnover rate, and institutional leverage quantiles decreasing by 11, 9, and 2 percentage points respectively [23]. 3.2.2. Fund duration decreased rapidly - In institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range dropped to 0%, in the neutral range remained at 25%, and in the cold range rose to 75%. The fund duration quantile dropped 41 percentage points to 18% and moved from the neutral to the cold range. The fund's ultra - long - term bond buying volume quantile dropped 8 percentage points to 69% and moved from the over - heated to the neutral range. Most other indicator quantiles also declined, with only the quantiles of allocation disk strength and listed company wealth management buying volume rising slightly [26]. 3.2.3. The policy spread quantile dropped 8 percentage points - The policy spread narrowed by 2bp to 2bp, and the corresponding quantile rose 8 percentage points to 55%, remaining in the neutral range. The credit spread widened by 3bp to 60bp, the Agricultural Development - CDB spread remained flat at 1bp, the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread narrowed by 2bp to 1bp. The average of the three spreads widened slightly by 1bp to 20bp, and its quantile rebounded 3 percentage points to 50%, still in the neutral range [31]. 3.2.4. The commodity price ratio quantile rose slightly - The proportion of price - ratio indicators in the cold range remained at 100%. The commodity price ratio quantile rose 7 percentage points to 27%, and the quantiles of other indicators changed little [34].