1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 9 percentage points from the previous period to 37%. Most of the indicator quantiles declined, with only the quantiles of allocation disk strength, policy spread, commodity price ratio, and market spread rising slightly. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 15%, and the trading heat quantile average decreased significantly [15][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1. This period's micro - trading thermometer reading dropped to 37% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 9 percentage points to 37%. Indicators with large declines included TL/T long - short ratio, fund duration, and 1/10Y Treasury turnover rate, with quantiles decreasing by 55, 41, and 11 percentage points respectively. Only the quantiles of allocation disk strength, policy spread, commodity price ratio, and market spread rose slightly. Currently, the only indicator with high congestion is the 30/10Y Treasury turnover rate [15]. 3.2. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range dropped to 15% - Among 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 3 (15%), in the neutral range decreased to 5 (25%), and in the cold range increased to 12 (60%). The TL/T long - short ratio and fund duration both dropped from the neutral range to the cold range, and the fund's ultra - long - term bond buying volume dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range [20]. - The trading heat quantile average decreased significantly. In trading heat, the quantiles of TL/T long - short ratio and 1/10Y Treasury turnover rate decreased by 55 and 11 percentage points, driving the trading heat quantile down 16 percentage points. In institutional behavior indicators, the fund duration quantile dropped 41 percentage points, and most other indicator quantiles also declined. Only the quantiles of allocation disk strength and listed company wealth management buying volume rose by 12 and 1 percentage points, and the institutional behavior quantile average decreased 12 percentage points. The market and policy spread quantiles rebounded 3 and 8 percentage points respectively, and the spread quantile average increased 6 percentage points. The commodity price ratio quantile rose 7 percentage points, driving the price ratio quantile average up 2 percentage points [20]. 3.2.1. TL/T long - short ratio decreased significantly - In trading heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 50%, in the neutral range dropped to 17%, and in the cold range rose to 33%. The TL/T long - short ratio quantile dropped 55 percentage points to 14% and moved from the neutral to the cold range. Other indicator quantiles mostly declined, with the 1/10Y Treasury turnover rate, full - market turnover rate, and institutional leverage quantiles decreasing by 11, 9, and 2 percentage points respectively [23]. 3.2.2. Fund duration decreased rapidly - In institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range dropped to 0%, in the neutral range remained at 25%, and in the cold range rose to 75%. The fund duration quantile dropped 41 percentage points to 18% and moved from the neutral to the cold range. The fund's ultra - long - term bond buying volume quantile dropped 8 percentage points to 69% and moved from the over - heated to the neutral range. Most other indicator quantiles also declined, with only the quantiles of allocation disk strength and listed company wealth management buying volume rising slightly [26]. 3.2.3. The policy spread quantile dropped 8 percentage points - The policy spread narrowed by 2bp to 2bp, and the corresponding quantile rose 8 percentage points to 55%, remaining in the neutral range. The credit spread widened by 3bp to 60bp, the Agricultural Development - CDB spread remained flat at 1bp, the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread narrowed by 2bp to 1bp. The average of the three spreads widened slightly by 1bp to 20bp, and its quantile rebounded 3 percentage points to 50%, still in the neutral range [31]. 3.2.4. The commodity price ratio quantile rose slightly - The proportion of price - ratio indicators in the cold range remained at 100%. The commodity price ratio quantile rose 7 percentage points to 27%, and the quantiles of other indicators changed little [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro Transaction Thermometer" dropped slightly by 2 percentage points to 50% compared to the previous period. Most of the trading heat - related indicator quantiles declined, while only a few indicator quantiles such as fund divergence, fund - rural commercial bank buying volume, policy spread, and commodity price ratio increased to varying degrees. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 35% [15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. This period's micro - transaction thermometer reading dropped to 50% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro Transaction Thermometer" dropped 2 percentage points to 50%. Most trading heat - related indicator quantiles declined, with the 1/10Y and 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate quantiles dropping 12 and 3 percentage points respectively, the full - market turnover rate quantile dropping 12 percentage points, and the institutional leverage quantile dropping 6 percentage points. Only the TL/T long - short ratio quantile rose 27 percentage points. The decline in the listed company wealth - management purchase volume and stock - bond price ratio quantiles was also significant, at 35 and 29 percentage points respectively. Currently, indicators with high congestion levels include the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and the fund's ultra - long - term bond purchase volume [15]. 3.2. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 35% - Among 20 micro - indicators, 7 (35%) were in the over - heated range, 5 (25%) were in the neutral range, and 8 (40%) were in the cold range. The full - market turnover rate and listed company wealth - management purchase volume dropped from the neutral to the cold range, while the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume rose from the cold to the neutral range. In terms of different types of indicators: - **Trading heat**: The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, full - market turnover rate, institutional leverage, and 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate quantiles dropped 12, 12, 6, and 3 percentage points respectively, and only the TL/T long - short ratio quantile rose 27 percentage points. The average trading heat quantile dropped 1 percentage point [5]. - **Institutional behavior**: The fund - rural commercial bank buying volume and fund divergence quantiles rose 20 and 14 percentage points respectively, while the listed company wealth - management purchase volume quantile dropped 35 percentage points. The average institutional behavior quantile was basically flat compared to the previous period [5]. - **Spread**: The market spread rose 1 percentage point, and the policy spread quantile rose 5 percentage points. The average spread quantile rose 3 percentage points [5]. - **Price ratio**: The stock - bond price ratio quantile dropped significantly by 29 percentage points, and the commodity price ratio quantile rose 6 percentage points. The average price ratio quantile dropped 6 percentage points [5]. 3.2.1. The full - market turnover rate dropped to the cold range - In trading heat - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 67%, the proportion in the neutral range dropped to 17%, and the proportion in the cold range rose to 17%. The full - market turnover rate quantile dropped 12 percentage points from the neutral to the cold range. Only the TL/T long - short ratio quantile rose 27 percentage points to 67% and remained in the neutral range [6]. 3.2.2. The quantile of listed company wealth - management purchase volume dropped significantly - In institutional behavior - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated, neutral, and cold ranges remained at 38%, 25%, and 38% respectively. The fund - rural commercial bank buying volume quantile rose 20 percentage points to 57% and moved from the cold to the neutral range [7]. 3.2.3. The policy spread quantile rose 5 percentage points - The policy spread slightly dropped 1bp to 3bp, and the corresponding quantile rose 5 percentage points to 46%, remaining in the neutral range. The credit spread narrowed 1bp to 49bp, the agricultural development - state development spread remained at 0bp, and the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread also remained at 2bp. The average of the three spreads remained at 17bp, and its quantile slightly rose 1 percentage point to 62%, remaining in the neutral range [8]. 3.2.4. The stock - bond price ratio quantile dropped significantly - All price - ratio - related indicators were in the cold range. The stock - bond price ratio quantile dropped 29 percentage points to 0%, the commodity price ratio quantile rose 6 percentage points, and the real - estate and consumer - goods price ratio quantiles remained the same as the previous period [9].

那就，。 本期微观交易温度计读数回升至 50% 本期交易热度类指标分位均值大幅回升 20 个百分点，其中 TL/T 多空比、全市场换手率、机构杠杆分位值分别上升 14、47、53 个百分点。除此外，货币松紧预期、股债比价、政策利差分位值分别下降 22、17、13 个百分点。当前拥 挤度较高的指标包括 30/10Y 国债换手率、机构杠杆、基金久期、基金超长债买入量。 本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比上升至 35% 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量上升至 7 个（占比 35%）、位于中性区间的指标数量下降至 6 个（占比 30%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量下降至 7 个（占比 35%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是，全市场换手率由偏冷区间升至中 性区间，机构杠杆由中性区间升至过热区间。 交易热度分位均值大幅回升 ①交易热度中，30/10Y 国债换手率持平于 100%高位，1/10Y 国债换手率、TL/T 多空比、全市场换手率、机构杠杆分 位值分别回升 5、14、47、53 百分点，交易热度分位均值大幅上升 20 个百分点。②机构行为类指标分位值变动不大， 基金久期、配置盘力度、基金-农商买入量分位值小幅回 ...

Group 1: Overall Market Conditions - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer this period has rebounded to 34%, a 5 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The turnover rates of 1Y and 30Y treasury bonds increased, while that of 10Y treasury bonds decreased. The percentile values of 30/10Y and 1/10Y treasury bond turnover rates increased by 24 and 86 percentage points respectively, and the percentile value of the TL/T long - short ratio also increased by 13 percentage points. The percentile values of institutional leverage, allocation disk strength, market spread, and listed company wealth management purchase volume increased slightly. The percentile values of fund divergence, stock - bond ratio, and real estate ratio decreased by 14, 10, and 10 percentage points respectively. Currently, the only indicator with high congestion is the long - term treasury bond trading volume ratio [14]. Group 2: Proportion of Indicators in Different Zones - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated zone remains at 15%. Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated zone remains 3 (15%), the number in the neutral zone increased to 4 (20%), and the number in the cold zone decreased to 13 (65%). The 1/10Y treasury bond turnover rate rose from the cold zone to the over - heated zone, and the fund - rural commercial bank purchase volume dropped from the over - heated zone to the cold zone [19]. Group 3: Transaction Heat Indicators - The average percentile value of transaction heat increased significantly. The percentile values of 30/10Y and 1/10Y treasury bond turnover rates increased by 24 and 86 percentage points respectively, and the percentile value of the TL/T long - short ratio increased by 13 percentage points, driving the average percentile value of transaction heat up by 21 percentage points [4]. - In the transaction heat - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated zone rose to 33%, the proportion in the neutral zone remained at 17%, and the proportion in the cold zone dropped to 50%. The percentile values of 30/10Y and 1/10Y treasury bond turnover rates increased by 21 and 86 percentage points respectively. The latter rose from the cold zone to the over - heated zone, while the former remained in the neutral zone [22]. Group 4: Institutional Behavior Indicators - The average percentile value of institutional behavior decreased by 2 percentage points. The percentile values of fund divergence and fund - rural commercial bank purchase volume decreased by 14 and 10 percentage points respectively [4]. - In the institutional behavior - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated zone dropped to 13%, the proportion in the neutral zone rose to 25%, and the proportion in the cold zone remained at 63%. The percentile value of the fund - rural commercial bank purchase volume dropped by 10 percentage points to 61% and moved from the over - heated zone to the neutral zone [26]. Group 5: Spread Indicators - The average percentile value of spreads increased slightly by 1 percentage point. The market spread increased by 8 percentage points, and the policy spread decreased by 5 percentage points [4]. - The policy spread widened slightly from 11bp to 13bp, and its percentile value decreased by 5 percentage points to 10%, remaining in the cold zone. The credit spread narrowed by 4bp to 50bp, the agricultural development - state - owned development spread widened slightly by 1bp to -1bp, and the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread remained basically flat at 2bp. The average of the three spreads narrowed slightly from 18bp to 17bp, and its percentile value increased by 8 percentage points to 63%, remaining in the neutral zone [7]. Group 6: Ratio Indicators - The average percentile value of ratios decreased by 5 percentage points. The stock - bond and real estate ratio percentile values both decreased by 10 percentage points [4]. - All ratio - related indicators are in the cold zone. The stock - bond and real estate ratio percentile values decreased by 10 percentage points, the commodity ratio percentile value increased slightly by 1 percentage point, and the consumer goods ratio percentile value remained at 0% [8].

本期微观交易温度计读数降至 31%，指标分位值在偏冷区间进一步下降 本期仅 1/10Y 国债换手率、全市场换手率、配置盘力度、商品比价分位值不同程度小幅回升，其余指标分位值均下降， 其中 30/10Y 国债换手率回落 23 个百分点、基金-农商买入量回落 37 个百分点，TL/T 多空比、机构杠杆、货币松紧预 期分位值也均回落 17 个百分点左右。当前拥挤度较高的指标仅有长期国债成交占比。 本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比大幅降至 5% 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量下降至 1 个（占比 5%）、位于中性区间的指标数量上升至 8 个（占比 40%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量上升至 11 个（占比 55%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是，30/10Y 国债换手率、基金超长 债买入量、货币松紧预期均由过热区间降至中性区间，基金-农商买入量也由中性区间降至偏冷区间。 各类指标分位均值均回落 ①交易热度中，仅 1/10Y 国债换手率、全市场换手率分位值回升 2、7 个百分点，其余指标分位值均回落，30/10Y 国 债换手率、TL/T 多空比、机构杠杆分位值分别下降 23、17、15 个百分点，交易热度分位均 ...

本期微观交易温度计读数回升 2 个百分点至 43% 本期除交易热度外，其余指标分位均值均上升。交易热度中主要是因为相对换手率、TL/T 多空比分位值不同程度回落， 带动交易热度分位均值下降 7 个百分点。除此外，回升幅度较大的指标包括基金分歧度、上市公司理财买入量、不动 产比价、政策利差。 本期位于偏热区间的指标数量小幅依然为 10% 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量依然为 2 个（占比 10%）、位于中性区间的指标数量上升至 11 个（占比 55%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量下降至 7 个（占比 35%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是，30/10Y 国债换手率由中性区间 降至偏冷区间，配置盘力度由过热区间降至中性区间，政策利差、股债比价均由偏冷区间升至中性区间，机构杠杆由 中性区间升至过热区间。 交易热度分位均值下降 7 个百分点 分类别来看，①本期交易热度指标中，30/10Y、1/10Y 相对换手率分位值继续下降 43、10 个百分点，TL/T 多空比分 位值也继续降低 6 个百分点。全市场换手率、机构杠杆分位值上升 7、11 个百分点，因此交易热度分位均值下降 7 个 百分点。②机构行为类中， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro Transaction Thermometer" dropped 1 percentage point to 43%. The proportion of indicators in the overheated range among 20 micro - indicators rose to 20%, those in the neutral range decreased to 30%, and those in the cold range remained at 50%. Different types of indicators showed various changes in their values and ranges [2][3][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. This period, the reading of the micro - transaction thermometer dropped 1 percentage point to 43% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro Transaction Thermometer" decreased by 1 percentage point to 43%. Indicators with larger declines include TL/T long - short ratio, fund duration, fund - rural commercial bank buying volume, market and policy spreads, and commodity price ratio. Indicators with larger increases are 30/10Y and 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rates, with their percentile values rising by 65 and 60 percentage points respectively. Currently, indicators with high congestion include 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and fund ultra - long bond buying volume [2][14]. 3.2. This period, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range rose to 20% - Among 20 micro - indicators, 4 are in the over - heated range (20%), 6 in the neutral range (30%), and 10 in the cold range (50%). The ranges of some indicators have changed: stock - bond price ratio and fund - rural commercial bank buying volume dropped from the neutral to the cold range; TL/T long - short ratio dropped from the over - heated to the neutral range; 30/10Y and 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rates rose from the cold and neutral ranges to the over - heated range respectively; allocation disk strength rose from the cold to the neutral range [3][19]. - Transaction heat percentile value increased by 17 percentage points. Except for the TL/T long - short ratio, whose percentile value dropped by 33 percentage points, other transaction heat indicators' percentile values all increased. The 30/10Y and 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rates' percentile values increased significantly by 65 and 60 percentage points respectively. The average percentile value of transaction heat increased by 17 percentage points. Among institutional behavior indicators, except for the allocation disk strength whose percentile value increased by 16 percentage points, other indicators' percentile values dropped. The fund duration and fund - rural commercial bank buying volume percentile values decreased by 25 and 51 percentage points respectively, driving the average percentile value of institutional behavior down by 10 percentage points. Market and policy spread percentile values both increased, driving the average spread percentile value down by 12 percentage points. Stock - bond, commodity, and real estate price ratio percentile values all dropped, while the consumer goods price ratio percentile value increased slightly by 9 percentage points, and the average percentile value of price ratios increased by 7 percentage points [4][19]. 3.2.1. Relative turnover rate percentile value increased significantly - In transaction heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range rose to 33%, in the neutral range remained at 17%, and in the cold range dropped to 50%. The 30/10Y and 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rates' percentile values increased by 65 and 60 percentage points respectively, with the former rising from the cold to the over - heated range and the latter from the neutral to the over - heated range. The TL/T long - short ratio percentile value dropped 33 percentage points to 51%, falling from the over - heated to the neutral range [5][21]. 3.2.2. Allocation disk strength continued to rise - Among institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated, neutral, and cold ranges remained at 25%, 50%, and 25% respectively. The fund - rural commercial bank buying volume percentile value dropped 51 percentage points to 6%, falling from the neutral to the cold range, while the allocation disk strength percentile value increased 16 percentage points, rising from the cold to the neutral range [6][22]. 3.2.3. Policy spread continued to widen under the bond market correction - The bond market corrected comprehensively. The spread between the 3 - year Treasury bond and OMO increased from 6bp to 11bp, and its percentile value dropped 14 percentage points to 22%, still in the cold range. Credit spread, Agricultural Development - China Development spread continued to compress by 6bp and 1bp to 46bp and 10bp respectively, while the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened by 13bp to - 5bp. The average spread of the three widened by 2bp to 17bp, and its percentile value dropped 10 percentage points to 41%, in the neutral range [7][29]. 3.2.4. Consumer goods price ratio percentile value increased by 9 percentage points - All price - ratio indicators are in the cold range. The stock - bond price ratio percentile value dropped 8 percentage points to 36%, falling from the neutral to the cold range. The commodity price ratio percentile value dropped significantly by 19 percentage points to 8%, still in the cold range [8][31].