1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The stainless - steel market has entered the traditional off - season with a generally light trading atmosphere. The transaction price of nickel iron at the raw material end has risen slightly, and the market sentiment for price support has increased. The supply - side contraction effect is gradually emerging at the end of the year, with increased maintenance and production cuts by steel mills in December and the usual year - end capacity control, which is expected to further ease the supply pressure. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, meeting market expectations. Overall, the stainless - steel market is in a tight - balance pattern, with prices showing a wide - range oscillation. There is a lack of clear short - term direction, so it is recommended to wait and see. [11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: On December 12, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.79%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, unchanged from the previous week; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.18%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,565 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.52%. In December, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4459 million tons. In November, the crude steel output was 3.0486 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to November was 6.48%. The estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in November was 1.4062 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled steel in December was 688,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. From January to October in 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%; in October, the single - month sales area was 61.4721 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.60%. In October, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in October was + 21.2%. The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0636 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.55%; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 60,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,490 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 176,800/662,600/224,100 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 0.26% week - on - week; the sea - floating volume of stainless steel last week was 61,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.64%, and the unloading volume was 68,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27.69%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 895 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/nickel, and iron plants in Fujian were currently losing 101 yuan/nickel. [11] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies recommend waiting and seeing. [13] 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - On December 12, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.79%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, unchanged from the previous week; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.18%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,565 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.52%. The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about a discount of 65 yuan (- 44) compared to the main contract; the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about a premium of 35 yuan (+ 34) compared to the main contract. The trading volume on the disk was 202,432 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%. In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between contract 1 and contract 2 was - 120 (- 30), and the spread between contract 1 and contract 3 was - 185 (- 35). [18][21][24] 3.3. Supply Side - In December, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4459 million tons. In November, the crude steel output was 3.0486 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to November was 6.48%. The estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in November was 1.4062 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled steel in December was 688,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. The estimated monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in October was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia in October reached 103,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.92%. In October, the net export volume of stainless steel was 234,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.54% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.71%; the cumulative net export from January to October was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year. [28][31][34][37] 3.4. Demand Side - From January to October in 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%; in October, the single - month sales area was 61.4721 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.60%. In October, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in October was + 21.2%. In October, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 113,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 16.30% and a year - on - year increase of 0.00%; the automobile sales volume in October was 3.3221 million units, a month - on - month increase of 2.97% and a year - on - year increase of 8.82%. [41][44][47] 3.5. Inventory - The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0636 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.55%; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 60,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,490 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 176,800/662,600/224,100 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 0.26% week - on - week; the sea - floating volume of stainless steel last week was 61,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.64%, and the unloading volume was 68,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27.69%. [51][54] 3.6. Cost Side - In October, the nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.50% and a year - on - year increase of 11.81%; the current nickel ore quotation for Ni:1.5% was 54.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory was 14.5587 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 895 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/nickel, and iron plants in Fujian were currently losing 101 yuan/nickel. The chromium ore quotation last week was 51.25 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 yuan/dry ton; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,000 yuan/50 base tons, unchanged from the previous week. In terms of production, the high - carbon ferrochrome output in November was 881,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.84%. The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line was - 511 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reached - 3.84%. [58][61][64][67]