来源：市场资讯 （来源：佛山市金属材料行业协会） 钢之家不锈钢之家不锈2026年2月25日 17:26安徽 现两大主导市场具体情况如下：无锡市场304不锈钢价格上涨50-100元/吨，201上涨50元/吨，430稳定。佛山市场304不锈钢价格上涨50-100元/吨，201上涨 50元/吨，430稳定。 市场成交价 钢之家不锈钢 行情简报 每天为您总结不锈钢市场情况 导读：今日不锈钢期货主力合约2604收盘价为14245元/吨，上涨160元/吨；沪镍主力合约收盘价142180元/吨，上涨4230元/吨。今日不锈钢期货价格继续 小幅上涨，受镍铁及期镍价格上涨带动，市场看多情绪升温，现货报价普遍上探。 一、市场概述 25日，国内主要市场304不锈钢价格上涨50-100元/吨，201上涨50元/吨，430稳定。今日不锈钢期货价格继续小幅上涨，受镍铁及期镍价格上涨带动，市场 看多情绪升温，现货报价普遍上探。 钢厂指导价 | 钢厂 | 材质 | 规格 | 价格 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 太钢 | 304/2B | 2. Omm | 17650 | | | 太钢 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations due to the information game between Indonesia and the Philippines [1]. - For stainless steel, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has shifted upward [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 139,610, with a change compared to T - 1 of 250, T - 5 of 5,180, T - 10 of - 7,860, T - 22 of 1,160, and T - 66 of 20,900 [1]. - The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 13,970, with a change compared to T - 1 of - 70, T - 5 of 160, T - 10 of - 615, T - 22 of 180, and T - 66 of 1,545 [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 433,838, with a change compared to T - 1 of - 84,787, T - 5 of - 148,686, T - 10 of - 349,437, T - 22 of - 843,852, and T - 66 of 335,590 [1]. - The trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 220,012, with a change compared to T - 1 of - 43,037, T - 5 of - 110,145, T - 10 of - 228,480, T - 22 of - 127,542, and T - 66 of 80,309 [1]. - **Industry Chain Data**: - The price of 1 imported nickel is 140,750, with a change compared to T - 1 of 3,000, T - 5 of 5,550, T - 10 of - 3,900, T - 22 of - 250, and T - 66 of 21,750 [1]. - The ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron is 1,052, with a change compared to T - 1 of 9, T - 5 of 14, T - 10 of - 3, T - 22 of 71, and T - 66 of 143 [1]. - The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 14,100, with a change compared to T - 1 of 0, T - 5 of 0, T - 10 of - 300, T - 22 of 200, and T - 66 of 1,275 [1]. - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,950, with a change compared to T - 1 of 0, T - 5 of - 300, T - 10 of - 1,450, T - 22 of - 900, and T - 66 of 3,505 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources ministry will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection [2]. - Some Indonesian mining companies face potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and the final amount may be lower [2]. - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port warehousing and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is in negotiation [3]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources ministry has started approving the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) for some companies [3]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala in a few months due to the rebound of nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions [3]. - The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia in 2026 is between 2.6 billion and 2.7 billion tons, and PT WBN received a preliminary notice to submit an RKAB [4]. - Philippine miners claim that the export volume of nickel ore to Indonesia may double [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant reduction in Indonesia's nickel mining quota has reversed the market's expectation of a "continuous surplus" in 2026, leading to supply - tightening pricing and a sharp rise in nickel prices. The continuous upward trend in the nickel ore market also supports the increase in nickel prices. For stainless steel, it is a passive follow - up rise driven by cost, with weak fundamentals [1][2][3][4] - Near the Spring Festival holiday, both nickel and stainless steel prices are expected to show a volatile trend. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices due to the continuous fermentation of nickel ore supply interference and cost - side support [3][4] Summary of Each Section Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 11, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2603 opened at 133,350 yuan/ton and closed at 139,360 yuan/ton, a change of 4.02% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 518,625 (+237,189) lots, and the open interest was 76,440 (-3,802) lots. The main contract showed a strong unilateral upward trend, breaking through the key pressure level of 140,000. The reduction of Indonesia's nickel mining quota was the main reason for the price increase [1] - **Nickel Ore**: Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore RKAB quota is 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, a significant reduction of about 30% compared to 3.79 billion tons in 2025. The reduction of a large - scale mine's quota by over 70% has led to an increase in nickel ore premiums. The supply of nickel ore is tight, and the bottom price of ferronickel is strongly supported. In January, the ferronickel production in Indonesia decreased significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline in February [1][2] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 146,700 yuan/ton, a rise of 3,900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was light, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 52,027 (-12) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,750 (0) tons [2] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 11, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2604 opened at 13,735 yuan/ton and closed at 14,145 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 112,583 (+50,518) lots, and the open interest was 100,625 (-4,171) lots. It showed an oscillating and slightly stronger trend, following the rebound of Shanghai nickel, but overall weaker than nickel, being a passive follow - up rise driven by cost [3] - **Spot**: Spot trading basically stopped, and market quotes remained stable. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 14,100 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 14,050 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 160 to 360 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,043.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On January 14, the Director - General of the Mineral and Coal Directorate of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia stated that the annual nickel ore production target is expected to be about 250 - 260 million tons, and the mine supply is expected to remain tight. Market optimism has risen, and stainless steel has shown a trend of increasing volume and price. In the short term, against the backdrop of tight supply, continuous decline in inventory, and significant cost support, the market is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend, and prices may show a high - level oscillation pattern, with the reference range for the main contract being 13,900 - 14,650 yuan/ton [11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: - **Spot and Futures Market**: On January 17, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 1,015 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 6.28%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was reported at 9,450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.73%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 14,275 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.99% [12]. - **Supply**: In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48%. In December, the expected output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled products was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96% [12]. - **Demand**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6% [12]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 927,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.22%; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 46,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,483 tons. Last week, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 133,300 tons, 602,400 tons, and 191,400 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.00% week - on - week; last week, the floating quantity of stainless steel at sea was 32,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.61%, and the unloading quantity was 103,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.46% [12]. - **Cost**: Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 1,020 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/nickel, and the current profit of iron plants in Fujian was 49 yuan/nickel [12]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - On January 17, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 1,015 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.28%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was reported at 9,450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.73%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 14,275 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.99% [20] - The market quotation of Foshan Delong refers to a premium of about - 325 yuan (- 24) over the main contract; the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang refers to a premium of about - 125 yuan (+ 6) over the main contract. The position on the disk was 261,387 lots, a week - on - week increase of 15.20% [23] - In terms of the monthly spread, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at 5 (+ 90), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 10 (+ 130) [26] 3. Supply Side - In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48% [31] - According to the sample statistics of MYSTEEL, in December, the expected output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled products was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96% [34] - It is estimated by SMM that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in December was 420,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.33%; according to MYSTEEL data, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 87,300 tons in November, a month - on - month decrease of 15.56% [37] - In November, the net export volume of stainless steel was 293,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.14%; from January to November, the cumulative net export volume was 3.1719 million tons, a 12.64% increase compared with the same period last year [40] 4. Demand Side - From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93% [45] - In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6% [48] - In November, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 132,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 16.81% and a year - on - year increase of 3.12%; in November, the automobile sales volume was 3.429 million units, a month - on - month increase of 3.22% and a year - on - year increase of 3.40% [51] 5. Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 883,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.13%. It is expected that the inventory will be slightly reduced this week, with an estimated value of 860,000 tons; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 46,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,483 tons [56] - Last week, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 133,300 tons, 602,400 tons, and 191,400 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.00% week - on - week; last week, the floating quantity of stainless steel at sea was 32,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.61%, and the unloading quantity was 103,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.46% [59] 6. Cost Side - According to WIND data, in November, the nickel ore import volume was 3.3395 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.66%; currently, the quotation of nickel ore with a Ni content of 1.5% is 54.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 13.3203 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.23% [64] - Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 1,020 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/nickel, and the current profit of iron plants in Fujian was 49 yuan/nickel [67] - Last week, the quotation of chrome ore was 55 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 yuan/dry ton; the quotation of high - carbon ferrochrome was 8,400 yuan/50 - base ton, a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/50 - base ton. In terms of output, the output of high - carbon ferrochrome in December was 887,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.66% [70] - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line is 797 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches 5.88% [73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - At the end of December, driven by the news of Indonesia's RKAB plan in 2026 setting a nickel ore quota of about 250 million tons, nickel prices led stainless steel prices to continue rising. The limited arrival of goods at steel mills and the increasing replenishment demand of traders led to a further decline in inventory. Supported by the expected Indonesian policy, the price of ferronickel remained firm, and the spot transaction price rebounded to 920 - 930 yuan per nickel. However, the spot market showed a differentiated pattern of "active trading but weak end - users". Affected by factors such as seasonal lack of orders and pressure on capital repatriation, end - users were indifferent to price fluctuations. In the short term, the improvement in policy expectations promoted the rise of raw material prices and accelerated inventory reduction, providing fundamental support for the current market. If the nickel ore supply quota is clearly tightened later, the price may rise further. It is recommended to consider laying out long positions on dips and closely monitor the actual implementation of policies [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Monthly Points Summary**: On December 31st, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 13,150 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.54%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 915 yuan per nickel, a month - on - month increase of 2.81%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,800 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,090 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.43%. In December, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.4459 million tons. In November, the crude steel output was 3.0486 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to November was 6.48%. In November, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4062 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%; in December, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 688,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6%. Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0051 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.55%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 47,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,036 tons. The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel last week were 153,300 tons, 631,700 tons, and 220,200 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.98% week - on - week; the floating volume of stainless steel last week was 42,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16.63%, and the unloading volume was 102,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34.85%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong last week was 925 yuan per nickel, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan per nickel, and iron plants in Fujian were currently losing 47 yuan per nickel [11]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis was - 140 yuan per ton, the production profit was 304,860 tons, the supply was - 165, the demand was 314,910 tons, and the inventory was 1.0051 million tons. The long - short scores were all neutral. The short - term market was supported by policy expectations, and if the nickel ore supply quota was tightened, prices might rise further. It was recommended to consider long positions on dips and monitor policy implementation [12]. 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - On December 31st, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 13,150 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.54%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 915 yuan per nickel, a month - on - month increase of 2.81%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,800 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,090 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.43% [16]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about - 290 yuan (- 79) higher than the main contract, and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about - 140 yuan (- 129) higher than the main contract. The open interest on the disk was 191,862 lots, a month - on - month increase of 2.68% [19]. - The spread between continuous contract 1 and continuous contract 2 was - 90 (- 60), and the spread between continuous contract 1 and continuous contract 3 was - 155 (- 65) [22]. 3.3 Supply Side - In December, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.4459 million tons. In November, the crude steel output was 3.0486 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to November was 6.48% [26]. - In November, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4062 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%; in November, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 688,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76% [29]. - In November, the estimated monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 87,300 tons in November, a month - on - month decrease of 15.56% [32]. - In November, the net export volume of stainless steel was 293,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.14%; the cumulative net export from January to November was 3.1719 million tons, a 12.64% increase compared with the same period last year [35]. 3.4 Demand Side - From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93% [39]. - In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6% [42]. - In November, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 132,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 16.81% and a year - on - year increase of 3.12%; the automobile sales volume in November was 3.429 million units, a month - on - month increase of 3.22% and a year - on - year increase of 3.40% [45]. 3.5 Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0051 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.55%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 47,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,036 tons [49]. - The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel last week were 153,300 tons, 631,700 tons, and 220,200 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.98% week - on - week; the floating volume of stainless steel last week was 42,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16.63%, and the unloading volume was 102,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34.85% [52]. 3.6 Cost Side - In November, the nickel ore import volume was 3.3395 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.66%; the current nickel ore quotation for Ni:1.5% was 54.0 US dollars per wet ton, and the port inventory was 13.7647 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.35% [56]. - The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong last week was 925 yuan per nickel, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan per nickel, and iron plants in Fujian were currently losing 47 yuan per nickel [59]. - Last week, the chromium ore quotation was 52.5 yuan per dry ton, with no week - on - week change; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,100 yuan per 50 - base ton, with no week - on - week change. In November, the high - carbon ferrochrome output was 881,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.84% [62]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line was - 165 yuan per ton, and the profit margin reached - 1.24% [65].

Core Viewpoint - Zimbabwe's mineral exports increased by 10% in the first 11 months of 2025, driven by a recovery in platinum group metals [1] Group 1: Export Performance - Platinum group metals' export revenue surged to $1.3 billion, with an export volume of 35,818 tons, significantly up from $875.6 million in the same period of 2024 [1] - Lithium spodumene accounted for 15.75% of total export revenue [1] - Sales of high-carbon ferrochrome reached $333.1 million, with a volume increase of 11% and a value increase of 6% [1] Group 2: Other Commodities - Coke sales grew by 7%, generating $162.9 million in revenue [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The general manager of the Zimbabwe Mineral Marketing Company expressed confidence in achieving the 2025 performance targets, anticipating that strong commodity prices will support continued positive momentum into 2026 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The stainless - steel market has entered the traditional off - season with a generally light trading atmosphere. The transaction price of nickel iron at the raw material end has risen slightly, and the market sentiment for price support has increased. The supply - side contraction effect is gradually emerging at the end of the year, with increased maintenance and production cuts by steel mills in December and the usual year - end capacity control, which is expected to further ease the supply pressure. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, meeting market expectations. Overall, the stainless - steel market is in a tight - balance pattern, with prices showing a wide - range oscillation. There is a lack of clear short - term direction, so it is recommended to wait and see. [11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: On December 12, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.79%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, unchanged from the previous week; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.18%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,565 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.52%. In December, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4459 million tons. In November, the crude steel output was 3.0486 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to November was 6.48%. The estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in November was 1.4062 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled steel in December was 688,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. From January to October in 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%; in October, the single - month sales area was 61.4721 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.60%. In October, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in October was + 21.2%. The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0636 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.55%; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 60,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,490 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 176,800/662,600/224,100 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 0.26% week - on - week; the sea - floating volume of stainless steel last week was 61,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.64%, and the unloading volume was 68,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27.69%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 895 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/nickel, and iron plants in Fujian were currently losing 101 yuan/nickel. [11] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies recommend waiting and seeing. [13] 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - On December 12, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.79%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, unchanged from the previous week; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.18%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,565 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.52%. The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about a discount of 65 yuan (- 44) compared to the main contract; the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about a premium of 35 yuan (+ 34) compared to the main contract. The trading volume on the disk was 202,432 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%. In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between contract 1 and contract 2 was - 120 (- 30), and the spread between contract 1 and contract 3 was - 185 (- 35). [18][21][24] 3.3. Supply Side - In December, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4459 million tons. In November, the crude steel output was 3.0486 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to November was 6.48%. The estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in November was 1.4062 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled steel in December was 688,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. The estimated monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in October was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia in October reached 103,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.92%. In October, the net export volume of stainless steel was 234,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.54% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.71%; the cumulative net export from January to October was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year. [28][31][34][37] 3.4. Demand Side - From January to October in 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%; in October, the single - month sales area was 61.4721 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.60%. In October, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in October was + 21.2%. In October, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 113,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 16.30% and a year - on - year increase of 0.00%; the automobile sales volume in October was 3.3221 million units, a month - on - month increase of 2.97% and a year - on - year increase of 8.82%. [41][44][47] 3.5. Inventory - The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0636 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.55%; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 60,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,490 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 176,800/662,600/224,100 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 0.26% week - on - week; the sea - floating volume of stainless steel last week was 61,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.64%, and the unloading volume was 68,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27.69%. [51][54] 3.6. Cost Side - In October, the nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.50% and a year - on - year increase of 11.81%; the current nickel ore quotation for Ni:1.5% was 54.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory was 14.5587 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 895 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/nickel, and iron plants in Fujian were currently losing 101 yuan/nickel. The chromium ore quotation last week was 51.25 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 yuan/dry ton; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,000 yuan/50 base tons, unchanged from the previous week. In terms of production, the high - carbon ferrochrome output in November was 881,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.84%. The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line was - 511 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reached - 3.84%. [58][61][64][67]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - Stainless steel demand has shown marginal improvement compared to October. Cost decline has pushed spot prices to a stage low, stimulating downstream enterprises to replenish inventory at low prices and attracting speculative bottom - fishing funds. These two factors have jointly promoted the warming of the market trading atmosphere and significantly increased trading activity. However, the pressure of high inventory remains significant. The focus of the subsequent market should be on the actual implementation of steel mills' production cuts. If the supply side can be effectively controlled, the production cut intensity can be increased, or positive signals can be released from the policy side, and combined with the further release of downstream low - level replenishment demand, it is expected to break the current supply - demand deadlock and drive the market to a phased turnaround [11][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Monthly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Price Data**: On December 5th, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 12,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +0.00%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month change of +0.00%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,550 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +0.60%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,425 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +0.12% [11][16] - **Supply Data**: In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude steel output was 3.0645 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to October was 6.48%. In October, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; in November, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 700,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% [11][26][29] - **Demand Data**: From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 million square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%; in October, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 61.4721 million square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 19.60%. In October, the year - on - year changes of refrigerator, household freezer, washing machine, and air - conditioner production were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry in October was +21.2% [11][39][42] - **Inventory Data**: The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0803 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 63,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,076 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 192,000 tons, 664,300 tons, and 224,000 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 0.73% month - on - month; the floating quantity of stainless steel last week was 62,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.10%, and the unloading quantity was 94,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10.53% [11][49][52] - **Cost Data**: The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 885 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month increase of 0 yuan/nickel. Iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 144 yuan/nickel [11][59] Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi on December 5th was 12,700 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel (unchanged month - on - month), and the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,550 yuan/ton (+0.60% month - on - month). The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,425 yuan/ton (+0.12% month - on - month) [16] - **Market Quotes and Positions**: The market quotation of Foshan Delong is about - 75 yuan (- 24) higher than the main contract, and that of Wuxi Hongwang is about 75 yuan (- 54) higher than the main contract. The open interest on the disk is 207,125 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.29% [19] - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 is reported as - 95 (- 25), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 is reported as - 170 (- 40) [22] Supply Side - **Domestic Production**: In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude steel output was 3.0645 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to October was 6.48%. In October, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; in November, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 700,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% [26][29] - **Indonesian Production and Imports**: In October, the estimated monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia was 440,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.33%. In October, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 103,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 7.92% [32] - **Export Data**: In October, the net export volume of stainless steel was 234,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 21.54% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.71%; from January to October, the cumulative net export volume was 1.0809 million tons, 65.78% higher than the same period last year [35] Demand Side - **Real Estate**: From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 million square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%; in October, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 61.4721 million square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 19.60% [39] - **Home Appliances**: In October, the year - on - year changes of refrigerator, household freezer, washing machine, and air - conditioner production were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively [42] - **Other Industries**: In October, the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry was +21.2%. In October, the output of elevators, escalators and lifts was 113,000 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 16.30% and a year - on - year change of +0.00%; the automobile sales volume in October was 3.3221 million units, with a month - on - month increase of 2.97% and a year - on - year increase of 8.82% [42][45] Inventory - **Total and Futures Inventory**: The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0803 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 63,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,076 tons [49] - **Inventory by Series**: The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 192,000 tons, 664,300 tons, and 224,000 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 0.73% month - on - month. The floating quantity of stainless steel last week was 62,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.10%, and the unloading quantity was 94,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10.53% [52] Cost Side - **Nickel Ore**: In October, the nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million wet tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 23.50% and a year - on - year increase of 11.81%. The current quotation of Ni:1.5% nickel ore is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 14.8733 million wet tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.83% [56] - **Nickel Iron**: The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 885 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month increase of 0 yuan/nickel. Iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 144 yuan/nickel [59] - **Chromium Ore and Ferrochrome**: The chromium ore quotation last week was 51 yuan/dry ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/dry ton; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,000 yuan/50 base tons, with a month - on - month change of +0 yuan/50 base tons. In November, the high - carbon ferrochrome output was 881,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6.84% [62] - **Production Profit**: The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line is - 857 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches - 6.32% [65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel are weak, and both are continuing to find their bottoms. The nickel market is in a situation of "tightening in the long - term, but loose in the short - term" due to the new Indonesian policy, and stainless steel is affected by factors such as real - estate downturn and slowdown in home appliance exports [1][3]. - It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation, but attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply, which may cause a rebound in nickel prices. Stainless steel prices are also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation due to low demand, inventory accumulation, and a downward shift in cost centers [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 12, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2512 opened at 119,300 yuan/ton and closed at 118,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.62% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 98,248 (+28,336) lots, and the open interest was 116,829 (1,929) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation pattern. The new Indonesian policy on nickel smelter investment restrictions may tighten capacity expansion in the long - term, but the short - term production capacity of wet - process intermediate products is still being released. The weak stainless - steel consumption on the demand side leads to insufficient rebound power in the Shanghai nickel market [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market is calm, and prices are stable. In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area is affected by typhoons, and the shipping efficiency is delayed. The price of downstream nickel - iron is falling, and iron plants have a lower psychological price for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November is expected to be lowered by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27 [1]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market is 122,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. After the Shanghai nickel price fell below 120,000 yuan, the spot market is more watchful, and trading is light. The spot premiums of various brands have not changed. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 31,824 (-468) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 252,114 (-1,194) tons [2]. Strategy - It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading. Attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply, which may cause a rebound in nickel prices [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 12, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,520 yuan/ton and closed at 12,485 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 85,852 (-22,462) lots, and the open interest was 137,838 (-4,171) lots. Affected by the decline in Shanghai nickel prices, the contract continued its weak oscillation. Although domestic steel mills' losses are increasing, the inertia of capacity release remains, and the demand side is still sluggish due to factors such as the real - estate downturn and slowdown in home appliance exports. Overall, stainless steel is still in a bottom - grinding state [3]. - **Spot**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and spot trading is sluggish. Many traders are selling at low prices to recover funds, and the daily quotes continue to decline slightly. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 12,825 (-25) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 335 to 685 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 909.0 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - It is expected that stainless - steel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

Core Viewpoint - The high carbon ferrochrome market is currently influenced by both "weak reality" and "weak expectations," leading to a lack of market confidence, although short-term attention is needed on raw material adjustments, downstream stainless steel market changes, and effective demand release [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The current market price for high carbon ferrochrome is around 8100-8300 CNY per 50 base tons, reflecting a weak and cautious market outlook [2] - Terminal demand remains sluggish, with the stainless steel market continuing to operate weakly, which has intensified negative sentiment towards ferrochrome [2] - Recent trading activity in the high carbon ferrochrome market has been lackluster, with strong price-cutting sentiment towards chrome ore, although a decline in chrome ore prices has created some bargaining pressure in the ferrochrome market [2] Group 2: Chrome Ore Market - The latest price for South African chrome concentrate (40-42% grade) at Tianjin Port is reported at 282 USD per ton, remaining stable compared to previous periods [4] - A detailed price table for chrome ore indicates various grades and their corresponding prices, with South African block ore (36%-38% grade) priced at 52-54 CNY per ton and South African concentrate (42%-44% grade) priced at 300-310 USD per ton [5]