1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, due to the concentrated delivery near the end of the month, the arrival of goods was obvious. The social inventory of stainless steel increased slightly after a decline. In the spot market, at the beginning of the week, driven by the rising futures market, inquiries were active, and rigid demand was concentratedly released at low prices, resulting in relatively good transactions. However, as the price increased, the downstream's willingness to chase high prices weakened, and transactions became dull. In terms of demand, the overall demand for 300 - series stainless steel was resilient, and the release of terminal demand was relatively stable. Some merchants completed their March sales targets ahead of schedule. The automotive industry performed well, strongly supporting the demand for stainless steel. In contrast, the demand in the architectural decoration field remained weak due to the continuous slump in the real estate market, and the performance of the home - appliance industry was also average, providing limited impetus to stainless - steel consumption. Overall, the current stainless - steel supply remained stable, terminal consumption slightly exceeded expectations, and the willingness of traders to stockpile increased. It is expected that the market will remain strong in the short term. The reference range for the main contract is 14,000 - 14,800 yuan/ton [11][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendations - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: - **Spot and Futures Market**: On March 27, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 14,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.75%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,090 yuan/nickel point, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03%. The closing price of the main stainless - steel futures contract on Friday afternoon was 14,390 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.86% [11][18]. - **Supply**: In March, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.5451 million tons. In February, the crude - steel output was 2.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 826,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 13.84%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in February was 1.3194 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.99%. The output of 300 - series cold - rolled steel in February was 421,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46.36% [11][29][32]. - **Demand**: From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 92.9343 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 13.50%. In December, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerator, household freezer, washing machine, and air - conditioner production were 7%, 5.7%, - 9.6%, and - 4.4% respectively. In February, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel - processing industry was + 10% [11][42][45]. - **Inventory**: On March 27, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1052 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.04%. On March 20, the futures warehouse - receipt inventory was 40,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,902 tons. On March 27, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 191,900 tons, 696,700 tons, and 269,000 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory increasing by 0.43% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel was 52,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.35%, and the unloading volume was 82,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21.20% [11][52][55]. - **Cost**: On March 24, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,110 yuan/nickel point, with no week - on - week change. Iron - making plants in Fujian were currently losing 97 yuan/nickel point [11][62]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - On March 27, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 14,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.75%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,090 yuan/nickel point, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03%. The closing price of the main stainless - steel futures contract on Friday afternoon was 14,390 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.86% [18]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about - 290 yuan (- 108) higher than the main contract, and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about - 90 yuan (- 118) higher than the main contract. The futures position was 192,331 lots, a week - on - week increase of 8.55% [22]. - In terms of the month - to - month spread, the spread between contract 1 and contract 2 was 50 (- 30), and the spread between contract 1 and contract 3 was 135 (- 10) [25]. 3.3 Supply Side - In March, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.5451 million tons. In February, the crude - steel output was 2.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 826,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 13.84% [29]. - According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in February was 1.3194 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.99%. The output of 300 - series cold - rolled steel in February was 421,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46.36% [32]. - It is expected that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in February was 380,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.64%. In February, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 93,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.58% [35]. - In February, the net export volume of stainless steel was 150,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47.60% and a year - on - year increase of 30.86%. From January to February, the cumulative net export volume was 2.9897 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.16% [38]. 3.4 Demand Side - From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 92.9343 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 13.50% [42]. - In December, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerator, household freezer, washing machine, and air - conditioner production were 7%, 5.7%, - 9.6%, and - 4.4% respectively. In February, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel - processing industry was + 10% [45]. - In December, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 133,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 0.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.32%. In February, the automobile sales volume was 1.805 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 23.08% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.20% [48]. 3.5 Inventory - On March 27, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1052 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.04%. On March 20, the futures warehouse - receipt inventory was 40,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,902 tons [52]. - On March 27, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 191,900 tons, 696,700 tons, and 269,000 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory increasing by 0.43% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel was 52,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.35%, and the unloading volume was 82,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21.20% [55]. 3.6 Cost Side - In February, the nickel - ore import volume was 1.2239 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.58% and a year - on - year increase of 6.61%. Currently, the quotation for 1.5% nickel - ore is 77.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 7.4184 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.41% [59]. - On March 24, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,110 yuan/nickel point, with no week - on - week change. Iron - making plants in Fujian were currently losing 97 yuan/nickel point [62]. - On March 27, the chromium - ore quotation was 61 yuan/dry ton, with no week - on - week change. The high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,700 yuan/50 - base tons, with no week - on - week change. In terms of production, the high - carbon ferrochrome output in February was 851,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.49% [65]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel ferronickel production line is - 568 yuan/ton, and the profit margin is - 3.77% [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has tightened, the shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked, driving up international oil prices significantly. Market risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and the non - ferrous metals sector has generally maintained a volatile trend. - In terms of supply, the domestic stainless - steel crude steel production schedule in March is expected to reach 3.6945 million tons, which has rebounded to a relatively high level. As steel mill shipments become more stable, the market arrival volume continues to increase, and supply - side pressure is gradually emerging. - On the demand side, although downstream processing and end - user enterprises have fully resumed work, procurement is mainly for rigid - demand restocking. Market sentiment is generally cautious, and inventory - building and speculative demand are relatively limited. The pace of social inventory reduction is generally slow. - In terms of raw materials, the production cost of nickel - iron in Indonesia has now risen to 1,067 yuan per nickel point, and cost support has increased, providing a certain bottom - support for stainless - steel prices. - In summary, under the combined effects of emerging supply pressure, moderate demand release, and persistent cost support, it is expected that stainless - steel prices will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. The reference range for the main contract is 13,800 - 14,800 yuan per ton [11][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary** - **Spot and Futures Market**: On March 13, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,450 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month change of +0.00%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 1,090 yuan per nickel, with a month - on - month increase of +0.46%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,800 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of +3.13%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 14,190 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.11% [11][18]. - **Supply**: In March, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule is 1.5451 million tons. In February, the crude steel output was 2.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 826,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of - 13.84%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in February was 1.3194 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 28.99%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled steel in February was 421,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 46.36% [11][29][32]. - **Demand**: From January to December 2025 in China, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 881.0137 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of - 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 93.9963 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of - 16.57%. In December, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 7%, 5.7%, - 9.6%, and - 4.4% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in December was +18.2% [11][42][45]. - **Inventory**: On March 13, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0861 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.79%; the futures warehouse receipt inventory was 51,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,661 tons. On March 13, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 183,500 tons, 707,100 tons, and 251,900 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by - 1.28% month - on - month; the floating inventory of stainless steel was 63,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of +19.58%, and the unloading volume was 78,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of +13.94% [11][52][55]. - **Cost**: On March 13, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 1,110 yuan per nickel, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan per nickel. Iron plants in Fujian are currently making a loss of 66 yuan per nickel [11][62]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - On March 13, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,450 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month change of +0.00%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 1,090 yuan per nickel, with a month - on - month increase of +0.46%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,800 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of +3.13%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 14,190 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.11% [11][18]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong is at a premium of about - 140 yuan (- 14) compared to the main contract; the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang is at a premium of about 60 yuan (- 4) compared to the main contract. The open interest on the futures market is 162,064 lots, a month - on - month decrease of - 6.78% [22]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between contract 1 and contract 2 is reported at - 185 (- 180), and the spread between contract 1 and contract 3 is reported at - 145 (- 160) [25]. 3.3. Supply Side - In March, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule is 1.5451 million tons. In February, the crude steel output was 2.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 826,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of - 13.84% [29]. - According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in February was 1.3194 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 28.99%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled steel in February was 421,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 46.36% [32]. - It is estimated by SMM that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in February was 380,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 13.64%; according to MYSTEEL data, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 121,400 tons in December, a month - on - month increase of +39.16% [35]. - In December 2025, the net export volume of stainless steel was 340,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of +15.96% and a year - on - year increase of +5.13%; the cumulative net export from January to December was 3.1937 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of +8.06% [38]. 3.4. Demand Side - From January to December 2025 in China, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 881.0137 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of - 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 93.9963 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of - 16.57% [42]. - In December, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 7%, 5.7%, - 9.6%, and - 4.4% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in December was +18.2% [45]. - In December, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 133,000 units, a month - on - month increase of +0.76% and a year - on - year decrease of - 4.32%; in January, the automobile sales volume was 1.805 million units, a month - on - month decrease of - 23.08% and a year - on - year decrease of - 15.20% [48]. 3.5. Inventory - On March 13, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0861 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.79%; the futures warehouse receipt inventory was 51,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,661 tons [52]. - On March 13, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 183,500 tons, 707,100 tons, and 251,900 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by - 1.28% month - on - month; the floating inventory of stainless steel was 63,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of +19.58%, and the unloading volume was 78,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of +13.94% [55]. 3.6. Cost Side - In December, the nickel ore import volume was 1.9928 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 40.27% and a year - on - year increase of +31.13%; currently, the nickel ore quotation for Ni:1.5% is 74.0 US dollars per wet ton, and the port inventory is 9.2433 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 7.82% [59]. - On March 13, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 1,110 yuan per nickel, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan per nickel. Iron plants in Fujian are currently making a loss of 66 yuan per nickel [62]. - On March 13, the chromium ore quotation was 61 yuan per dry ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.5 yuan per dry ton; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,700 yuan per 50 - base ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan per 50 - base ton. In terms of output, the high - carbon ferrochrome output in February was 851,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 3.49% [65]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel - iron production line is - 353 yuan per ton, and the profit margin is - 2.38% [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In February, affected by multiple factors such as the shift in macro - sentiment and the departure of funds for risk - aversion, the price of stainless steel fluctuated sharply. After a panic sell - off in the pre - holiday market, with the release of low - price bottom - fishing demand and the stabilization of macro - sentiment, the price gradually rebounded and recovered. After the holiday, the concentrated arrival of steel mill resources led to a phased high in social inventory, while the downstream demand started slowly, and the market sentiment became cautious. The spot trading activity in February was generally low, the shipment rhythm of Qingshan agents was affected by the price - limit policy, and the downstream entered the traditional off - season, with low purchasing willingness. The actual transactions were mainly resource transfers among traders. However, the cost support of the industrial chain remained solid, and the significant production cuts by steel mills in February provided some support for the price bottom. It is expected that the stainless steel price will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the reference range of the main contract being 13,500 - 15,000 yuan/ton [11][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Monthly Key Points Summary** - **Periodic and Spot Market**: On March 6, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,085 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 2.84%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,800 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.67%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 14,205 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0.00% [11] - **Supply**: In February, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 923,500 tons. In January, the crude steel output was 3.5364 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 275,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 23.59%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel in January reached 1.8581 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.35%; the cold - rolled output of 300 - series in January was 785,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.67% [11] - **Demand**: From January to December 2025 in China, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 881.0137 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 93.9963 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57%. In December, the year - on - year changes of refrigerator, household freezer, washing machine, and air - conditioner were 7%, 5.7%, - 9.6%, and - 4.4% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry in December was 18.2% [11] - **Inventory**: On March 6, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0948 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.71%; on February 27, the futures warehouse receipt inventory was 52,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,177 tons. On March 6, the social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 184,300 tons, 716,300 tons, and 249,400 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series increased by 16.16% month - on - month; the floating quantity of stainless steel was 53,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46.91%, and the unloading quantity was 69,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.10% [11] - **Cost**: On March 6, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,090 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/nickel, and the iron mills in Fujian were currently at a loss of 15 yuan/nickel [11] - **Fundamental Assessment** - **Data**: The basis was - 5 yuan/ton, the production profit was 353.64 million tons, the supply was 3.0857 million tons, and the inventory was 1.0948 million tons. The long - short scores were 0, - 1, 0, 0, and 0 respectively, and the evaluations were all neutral [12] 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - On March 6, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,085 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 2.84%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,800 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.67%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 14,205 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00% [16] - The market quotation of Foshan Delong was about - 155 yuan (+240) higher than the main contract; the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang was about - 5 yuan (+340) higher than the main contract. The disk position was 173,851 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 45.54% [20] - In terms of month - to - month spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 5 (+25), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at 15 (+20) [23] 3.3 Supply End - In February, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 923,500 tons. In January, the crude steel output was 3.5364 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 275,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 23.59% [27] - According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel in January reached 1.8581 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.35%; the cold - rolled output of 300 - series in January was 785,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.67% [30] - It is estimated by SMM that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in January was 440,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.76%. According to MYSTEEL data, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 121,400 tons in December, a month - on - month increase of 39.16% [33] - In December, the net export volume of stainless steel was 340,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.96% and a year - on - year increase of 5.13%; from January to December, the cumulative net export was 3.1937 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.06% [36] 3.4 Demand End - From January to December 2025 in China, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 881.0137 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 93.9963 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57% [40] - In December, the year - on - year changes of refrigerator, household freezer, washing machine, and air - conditioner were 7%, 5.7%, - 9.6%, and - 4.4% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry in December was 18.2% [43] - In December, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 133,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 0.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.32%; in December, the automobile sales volume was 3.2722 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.20% [46] 3.5 Inventory - On March 6, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0948 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.71%; on February 27, the futures warehouse receipt inventory was 52,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,177 tons [50] - On March 6, the social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 184,300 tons, 716,300 tons, and 249,400 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series increased by 16.16% month - on - month; the floating quantity of stainless steel was 53,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46.91%, and the unloading quantity was 69,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.10% [53] 3.6 Cost End - In December, the nickel ore import volume was 1.9928 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40.27% and a year - on - year increase of 31.13%. Currently, the quotation of nickel ore with Ni:1.5% is 67.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 10.0274 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.38% [57] - On March 6, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,090 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/nickel, and the iron mills in Fujian were currently at a loss of 15 yuan/nickel [60] - On March 5, the chromium ore quotation was 60 yuan/dry ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.5 yuan/dry ton; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,600 yuan/50 base tons, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/50 base tons. In terms of output, the high - carbon ferrochrome output in February was 851,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.49% [63] - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel ferronickel production line is - 132 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches - 0.91% [66]

Market Overview - On February 25, the domestic market saw an increase in 304 stainless steel prices by 50-100 yuan/ton, while 201 rose by 50 yuan/ton, and 430 remained stable [2][4]. - The futures price of stainless steel continued to rise slightly, driven by increases in nickel iron and nickel prices, leading to heightened bullish sentiment in the market [2][4]. Steel Mill Guidance Prices - Major steel mills provided the following guidance prices: - Taiyuan Iron and Steel: 304/2B at 17,650 yuan/ton; 304/No. 1 at 16,650 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan) [3]. - Dongfang Special Steel: 316L/No. 1 at 26,050 yuan/ton (up 300 yuan) [3]. Market Transaction Prices - In Wuxi, transaction prices for 304/2B 2.0mm from Taiyuan Iron and Steel were at 15,050 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan), while in Foshan, prices for the same material from Fujian Jiao Jin were at 14,550 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan) [5]. Raw Material Prices - On February 25, the price of nickel plates in the Yangtze River region was 145,450 yuan/ton (up 2,700 yuan), while high-carbon ferrochrome in Sichuan remained stable at 8,750 yuan/50 base tons [6]. Stainless Steel Futures - The night trading session on February 25 opened slightly higher, with the market showing a strong upward trend throughout the day, closing with a bullish candlestick pattern. The next trading day for the 2604 contract is expected to range between 14,100 and 14,400 yuan/ton [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations due to the information game between Indonesia and the Philippines [1]. - For stainless steel, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has shifted upward [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 139,610, with a change compared to T - 1 of 250, T - 5 of 5,180, T - 10 of - 7,860, T - 22 of 1,160, and T - 66 of 20,900 [1]. - The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 13,970, with a change compared to T - 1 of - 70, T - 5 of 160, T - 10 of - 615, T - 22 of 180, and T - 66 of 1,545 [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 433,838, with a change compared to T - 1 of - 84,787, T - 5 of - 148,686, T - 10 of - 349,437, T - 22 of - 843,852, and T - 66 of 335,590 [1]. - The trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 220,012, with a change compared to T - 1 of - 43,037, T - 5 of - 110,145, T - 10 of - 228,480, T - 22 of - 127,542, and T - 66 of 80,309 [1]. - **Industry Chain Data**: - The price of 1 imported nickel is 140,750, with a change compared to T - 1 of 3,000, T - 5 of 5,550, T - 10 of - 3,900, T - 22 of - 250, and T - 66 of 21,750 [1]. - The ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron is 1,052, with a change compared to T - 1 of 9, T - 5 of 14, T - 10 of - 3, T - 22 of 71, and T - 66 of 143 [1]. - The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 14,100, with a change compared to T - 1 of 0, T - 5 of 0, T - 10 of - 300, T - 22 of 200, and T - 66 of 1,275 [1]. - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,950, with a change compared to T - 1 of 0, T - 5 of - 300, T - 10 of - 1,450, T - 22 of - 900, and T - 66 of 3,505 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources ministry will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection [2]. - Some Indonesian mining companies face potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and the final amount may be lower [2]. - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port warehousing and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is in negotiation [3]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources ministry has started approving the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) for some companies [3]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala in a few months due to the rebound of nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions [3]. - The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia in 2026 is between 2.6 billion and 2.7 billion tons, and PT WBN received a preliminary notice to submit an RKAB [4]. - Philippine miners claim that the export volume of nickel ore to Indonesia may double [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant reduction in Indonesia's nickel mining quota has reversed the market's expectation of a "continuous surplus" in 2026, leading to supply - tightening pricing and a sharp rise in nickel prices. The continuous upward trend in the nickel ore market also supports the increase in nickel prices. For stainless steel, it is a passive follow - up rise driven by cost, with weak fundamentals [1][2][3][4] - Near the Spring Festival holiday, both nickel and stainless steel prices are expected to show a volatile trend. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices due to the continuous fermentation of nickel ore supply interference and cost - side support [3][4] Summary of Each Section Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 11, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2603 opened at 133,350 yuan/ton and closed at 139,360 yuan/ton, a change of 4.02% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 518,625 (+237,189) lots, and the open interest was 76,440 (-3,802) lots. The main contract showed a strong unilateral upward trend, breaking through the key pressure level of 140,000. The reduction of Indonesia's nickel mining quota was the main reason for the price increase [1] - **Nickel Ore**: Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore RKAB quota is 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, a significant reduction of about 30% compared to 3.79 billion tons in 2025. The reduction of a large - scale mine's quota by over 70% has led to an increase in nickel ore premiums. The supply of nickel ore is tight, and the bottom price of ferronickel is strongly supported. In January, the ferronickel production in Indonesia decreased significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline in February [1][2] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 146,700 yuan/ton, a rise of 3,900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was light, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 52,027 (-12) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,750 (0) tons [2] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 11, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2604 opened at 13,735 yuan/ton and closed at 14,145 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 112,583 (+50,518) lots, and the open interest was 100,625 (-4,171) lots. It showed an oscillating and slightly stronger trend, following the rebound of Shanghai nickel, but overall weaker than nickel, being a passive follow - up rise driven by cost [3] - **Spot**: Spot trading basically stopped, and market quotes remained stable. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 14,100 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 14,050 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 160 to 360 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,043.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On January 14, the Director - General of the Mineral and Coal Directorate of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia stated that the annual nickel ore production target is expected to be about 250 - 260 million tons, and the mine supply is expected to remain tight. Market optimism has risen, and stainless steel has shown a trend of increasing volume and price. In the short term, against the backdrop of tight supply, continuous decline in inventory, and significant cost support, the market is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend, and prices may show a high - level oscillation pattern, with the reference range for the main contract being 13,900 - 14,650 yuan/ton [11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: - **Spot and Futures Market**: On January 17, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 1,015 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 6.28%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was reported at 9,450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.73%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 14,275 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.99% [12]. - **Supply**: In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48%. In December, the expected output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled products was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96% [12]. - **Demand**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6% [12]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 927,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.22%; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 46,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,483 tons. Last week, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 133,300 tons, 602,400 tons, and 191,400 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.00% week - on - week; last week, the floating quantity of stainless steel at sea was 32,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.61%, and the unloading quantity was 103,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.46% [12]. - **Cost**: Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 1,020 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/nickel, and the current profit of iron plants in Fujian was 49 yuan/nickel [12]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - On January 17, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 1,015 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.28%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was reported at 9,450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.73%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 14,275 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.99% [20] - The market quotation of Foshan Delong refers to a premium of about - 325 yuan (- 24) over the main contract; the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang refers to a premium of about - 125 yuan (+ 6) over the main contract. The position on the disk was 261,387 lots, a week - on - week increase of 15.20% [23] - In terms of the monthly spread, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at 5 (+ 90), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 10 (+ 130) [26] 3. Supply Side - In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48% [31] - According to the sample statistics of MYSTEEL, in December, the expected output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled products was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96% [34] - It is estimated by SMM that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in December was 420,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.33%; according to MYSTEEL data, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 87,300 tons in November, a month - on - month decrease of 15.56% [37] - In November, the net export volume of stainless steel was 293,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.14%; from January to November, the cumulative net export volume was 3.1719 million tons, a 12.64% increase compared with the same period last year [40] 4. Demand Side - From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93% [45] - In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6% [48] - In November, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 132,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 16.81% and a year - on - year increase of 3.12%; in November, the automobile sales volume was 3.429 million units, a month - on - month increase of 3.22% and a year - on - year increase of 3.40% [51] 5. Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 883,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.13%. It is expected that the inventory will be slightly reduced this week, with an estimated value of 860,000 tons; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 46,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,483 tons [56] - Last week, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 133,300 tons, 602,400 tons, and 191,400 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.00% week - on - week; last week, the floating quantity of stainless steel at sea was 32,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.61%, and the unloading quantity was 103,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.46% [59] 6. Cost Side - According to WIND data, in November, the nickel ore import volume was 3.3395 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.66%; currently, the quotation of nickel ore with a Ni content of 1.5% is 54.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 13.3203 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.23% [64] - Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 1,020 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/nickel, and the current profit of iron plants in Fujian was 49 yuan/nickel [67] - Last week, the quotation of chrome ore was 55 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 yuan/dry ton; the quotation of high - carbon ferrochrome was 8,400 yuan/50 - base ton, a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/50 - base ton. In terms of output, the output of high - carbon ferrochrome in December was 887,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.66% [70] - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line is 797 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches 5.88% [73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - At the end of December, driven by the news of Indonesia's RKAB plan in 2026 setting a nickel ore quota of about 250 million tons, nickel prices led stainless steel prices to continue rising. The limited arrival of goods at steel mills and the increasing replenishment demand of traders led to a further decline in inventory. Supported by the expected Indonesian policy, the price of ferronickel remained firm, and the spot transaction price rebounded to 920 - 930 yuan per nickel. However, the spot market showed a differentiated pattern of "active trading but weak end - users". Affected by factors such as seasonal lack of orders and pressure on capital repatriation, end - users were indifferent to price fluctuations. In the short term, the improvement in policy expectations promoted the rise of raw material prices and accelerated inventory reduction, providing fundamental support for the current market. If the nickel ore supply quota is clearly tightened later, the price may rise further. It is recommended to consider laying out long positions on dips and closely monitor the actual implementation of policies [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Monthly Points Summary**: On December 31st, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 13,150 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.54%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 915 yuan per nickel, a month - on - month increase of 2.81%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,800 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,090 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.43%. In December, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.4459 million tons. In November, the crude steel output was 3.0486 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to November was 6.48%. In November, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4062 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%; in December, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 688,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6%. Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0051 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.55%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 47,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,036 tons. The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel last week were 153,300 tons, 631,700 tons, and 220,200 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.98% week - on - week; the floating volume of stainless steel last week was 42,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16.63%, and the unloading volume was 102,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34.85%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong last week was 925 yuan per nickel, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan per nickel, and iron plants in Fujian were currently losing 47 yuan per nickel [11]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis was - 140 yuan per ton, the production profit was 304,860 tons, the supply was - 165, the demand was 314,910 tons, and the inventory was 1.0051 million tons. The long - short scores were all neutral. The short - term market was supported by policy expectations, and if the nickel ore supply quota was tightened, prices might rise further. It was recommended to consider long positions on dips and monitor policy implementation [12]. 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - On December 31st, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 13,150 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.54%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 915 yuan per nickel, a month - on - month increase of 2.81%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,800 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,090 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.43% [16]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about - 290 yuan (- 79) higher than the main contract, and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about - 140 yuan (- 129) higher than the main contract. The open interest on the disk was 191,862 lots, a month - on - month increase of 2.68% [19]. - The spread between continuous contract 1 and continuous contract 2 was - 90 (- 60), and the spread between continuous contract 1 and continuous contract 3 was - 155 (- 65) [22]. 3.3 Supply Side - In December, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.4459 million tons. In November, the crude steel output was 3.0486 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to November was 6.48% [26]. - In November, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4062 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%; in November, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 688,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76% [29]. - In November, the estimated monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 87,300 tons in November, a month - on - month decrease of 15.56% [32]. - In November, the net export volume of stainless steel was 293,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.14%; the cumulative net export from January to November was 3.1719 million tons, a 12.64% increase compared with the same period last year [35]. 3.4 Demand Side - From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93% [39]. - In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6% [42]. - In November, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 132,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 16.81% and a year - on - year increase of 3.12%; the automobile sales volume in November was 3.429 million units, a month - on - month increase of 3.22% and a year - on - year increase of 3.40% [45]. 3.5 Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0051 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.55%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 47,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,036 tons [49]. - The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel last week were 153,300 tons, 631,700 tons, and 220,200 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.98% week - on - week; the floating volume of stainless steel last week was 42,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16.63%, and the unloading volume was 102,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34.85% [52]. 3.6 Cost Side - In November, the nickel ore import volume was 3.3395 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.66%; the current nickel ore quotation for Ni:1.5% was 54.0 US dollars per wet ton, and the port inventory was 13.7647 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.35% [56]. - The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong last week was 925 yuan per nickel, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan per nickel, and iron plants in Fujian were currently losing 47 yuan per nickel [59]. - Last week, the chromium ore quotation was 52.5 yuan per dry ton, with no week - on - week change; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,100 yuan per 50 - base ton, with no week - on - week change. In November, the high - carbon ferrochrome output was 881,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.84% [62]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line was - 165 yuan per ton, and the profit margin reached - 1.24% [65].

Core Viewpoint - Zimbabwe's mineral exports increased by 10% in the first 11 months of 2025, driven by a recovery in platinum group metals [1] Group 1: Export Performance - Platinum group metals' export revenue surged to $1.3 billion, with an export volume of 35,818 tons, significantly up from $875.6 million in the same period of 2024 [1] - Lithium spodumene accounted for 15.75% of total export revenue [1] - Sales of high-carbon ferrochrome reached $333.1 million, with a volume increase of 11% and a value increase of 6% [1] Group 2: Other Commodities - Coke sales grew by 7%, generating $162.9 million in revenue [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The general manager of the Zimbabwe Mineral Marketing Company expressed confidence in achieving the 2025 performance targets, anticipating that strong commodity prices will support continued positive momentum into 2026 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The stainless - steel market has entered the traditional off - season with a generally light trading atmosphere. The transaction price of nickel iron at the raw material end has risen slightly, and the market sentiment for price support has increased. The supply - side contraction effect is gradually emerging at the end of the year, with increased maintenance and production cuts by steel mills in December and the usual year - end capacity control, which is expected to further ease the supply pressure. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, meeting market expectations. Overall, the stainless - steel market is in a tight - balance pattern, with prices showing a wide - range oscillation. There is a lack of clear short - term direction, so it is recommended to wait and see. [11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: On December 12, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.79%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, unchanged from the previous week; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.18%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,565 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.52%. In December, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4459 million tons. In November, the crude steel output was 3.0486 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to November was 6.48%. The estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in November was 1.4062 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled steel in December was 688,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. From January to October in 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%; in October, the single - month sales area was 61.4721 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.60%. In October, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in October was + 21.2%. The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0636 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.55%; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 60,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,490 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 176,800/662,600/224,100 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 0.26% week - on - week; the sea - floating volume of stainless steel last week was 61,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.64%, and the unloading volume was 68,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27.69%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 895 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/nickel, and iron plants in Fujian were currently losing 101 yuan/nickel. [11] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies recommend waiting and seeing. [13] 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - On December 12, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.79%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, unchanged from the previous week; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.18%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,565 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.52%. The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about a discount of 65 yuan (- 44) compared to the main contract; the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about a premium of 35 yuan (+ 34) compared to the main contract. The trading volume on the disk was 202,432 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%. In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between contract 1 and contract 2 was - 120 (- 30), and the spread between contract 1 and contract 3 was - 185 (- 35). [18][21][24] 3.3. Supply Side - In December, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4459 million tons. In November, the crude steel output was 3.0486 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to November was 6.48%. The estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in November was 1.4062 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled steel in December was 688,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. The estimated monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in October was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia in October reached 103,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.92%. In October, the net export volume of stainless steel was 234,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.54% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.71%; the cumulative net export from January to October was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year. [28][31][34][37] 3.4. Demand Side - From January to October in 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%; in October, the single - month sales area was 61.4721 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.60%. In October, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in October was + 21.2%. In October, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 113,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 16.30% and a year - on - year increase of 0.00%; the automobile sales volume in October was 3.3221 million units, a month - on - month increase of 2.97% and a year - on - year increase of 8.82%. [41][44][47] 3.5. Inventory - The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0636 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.55%; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 60,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,490 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 176,800/662,600/224,100 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 0.26% week - on - week; the sea - floating volume of stainless steel last week was 61,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.64%, and the unloading volume was 68,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27.69%. [51][54] 3.6. Cost Side - In October, the nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.50% and a year - on - year increase of 11.81%; the current nickel ore quotation for Ni:1.5% was 54.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory was 14.5587 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 895 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/nickel, and iron plants in Fujian were currently losing 101 yuan/nickel. The chromium ore quotation last week was 51.25 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 yuan/dry ton; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,000 yuan/50 base tons, unchanged from the previous week. In terms of production, the high - carbon ferrochrome output in November was 881,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.84%. The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line was - 511 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reached - 3.84%. [58][61][64][67]