1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel are weak, and both are continuing to find their bottoms. The nickel market is in a situation of "tightening in the long - term, but loose in the short - term" due to the new Indonesian policy, and stainless steel is affected by factors such as real - estate downturn and slowdown in home appliance exports [1][3]. - It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation, but attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply, which may cause a rebound in nickel prices. Stainless steel prices are also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation due to low demand, inventory accumulation, and a downward shift in cost centers [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 12, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2512 opened at 119,300 yuan/ton and closed at 118,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.62% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 98,248 (+28,336) lots, and the open interest was 116,829 (1,929) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation pattern. The new Indonesian policy on nickel smelter investment restrictions may tighten capacity expansion in the long - term, but the short - term production capacity of wet - process intermediate products is still being released. The weak stainless - steel consumption on the demand side leads to insufficient rebound power in the Shanghai nickel market [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market is calm, and prices are stable. In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area is affected by typhoons, and the shipping efficiency is delayed. The price of downstream nickel - iron is falling, and iron plants have a lower psychological price for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November is expected to be lowered by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27 [1]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market is 122,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. After the Shanghai nickel price fell below 120,000 yuan, the spot market is more watchful, and trading is light. The spot premiums of various brands have not changed. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 31,824 (-468) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 252,114 (-1,194) tons [2]. Strategy - It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading. Attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply, which may cause a rebound in nickel prices [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 12, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,520 yuan/ton and closed at 12,485 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 85,852 (-22,462) lots, and the open interest was 137,838 (-4,171) lots. Affected by the decline in Shanghai nickel prices, the contract continued its weak oscillation. Although domestic steel mills' losses are increasing, the inertia of capacity release remains, and the demand side is still sluggish due to factors such as the real - estate downturn and slowdown in home appliance exports. Overall, stainless steel is still in a bottom - grinding state [3]. - **Spot**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and spot trading is sluggish. Many traders are selling at low prices to recover funds, and the daily quotes continue to decline slightly. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 12,825 (-25) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 335 to 685 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 909.0 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - It is expected that stainless - steel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

Core Viewpoint - The high carbon ferrochrome market is currently influenced by both "weak reality" and "weak expectations," leading to a lack of market confidence, although short-term attention is needed on raw material adjustments, downstream stainless steel market changes, and effective demand release [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The current market price for high carbon ferrochrome is around 8100-8300 CNY per 50 base tons, reflecting a weak and cautious market outlook [2] - Terminal demand remains sluggish, with the stainless steel market continuing to operate weakly, which has intensified negative sentiment towards ferrochrome [2] - Recent trading activity in the high carbon ferrochrome market has been lackluster, with strong price-cutting sentiment towards chrome ore, although a decline in chrome ore prices has created some bargaining pressure in the ferrochrome market [2] Group 2: Chrome Ore Market - The latest price for South African chrome concentrate (40-42% grade) at Tianjin Port is reported at 282 USD per ton, remaining stable compared to previous periods [4] - A detailed price table for chrome ore indicates various grades and their corresponding prices, with South African block ore (36%-38% grade) priced at 52-54 CNY per ton and South African concentrate (42%-44% grade) priced at 300-310 USD per ton [5]

Group 1: Report Title and Investment Rating - Report Title: Entertainment and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20251106: Weak Cost Support, Hold Short Positions in Stainless Steel [1] - Investment Rating: Not provided Group 2: Core Views - Nickel: On November 5, the main nickel contract fluctuated weakly. The trading volume was 123,448 lots (+577), and the open interest was 115,164 lots (-3,296). LME nickel fell 0.40%. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium decreased. The supply side showed that nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports increased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel pig iron plants' losses deepened, and production decreased in November, while Indonesian production increased. Nickel pig iron inventories tightened. In November, domestic electrolytic nickel production decreased, and export profits expanded. On the demand side, ternary production increased, stainless steel plant production decreased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable. In terms of inventory, SHFE inventory increased, LME inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded area inventory decreased. Overall, the nickel fundamentals were weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation was at a low level, and nickel prices were expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. - Stainless Steel: On November 5, the main stainless steel contract fluctuated downward. The trading volume was 90,380 lots (-21,042), and the open interest was 74,412 lots (-1,663). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium expanded. In terms of inventory, SHFE inventory remained flat, and last week's 300-series social inventory was 613,600 tons (+900). On the supply side, stainless steel production decreased in November, and 300-series production was basically flat. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. At the cost end, high-nickel pig iron prices fell, and high-carbon ferrochrome prices remained flat. Overall, the fundamentals were loose, cost support was weak, and stainless steel was expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. Group 3: Market Data Summary Nickel Market - **Futures Contracts**: The closing prices of nickel futures contracts on November 5 showed various changes compared to the previous day and two weeks ago. For example, the near-month contract closed at 119,720 yuan/ton (+330), the continuous first contract at 120,030 yuan/ton (+330), etc. [2] - **Spot Market**: The average prices of various nickel products such as SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, and imported nickel also changed. For instance, SMM 1 electrolytic nickel's average price was 120,950 yuan/ton (-850) [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE nickel inventory increased, LME nickel inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded area inventory decreased [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Futures Contracts**: The closing prices of stainless steel futures contracts on November 5 also changed. For example, the near-month contract closed at 12,550 yuan/ton (0), the continuous first contract at 12,535 yuan/ton (-10) [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average prices of different types of stainless steel products such as 304/2B coils and 316L/2B coils decreased. For example, 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) average price was 17,950 yuan/ton (-500) [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE stainless steel inventory remained flat, and last week's 300-series social inventory was 613,600 tons (+900) [2]. Group 4: Industry News - EU Investigation: The European Commission announced an in - depth investigation into MMG's acquisition of Anglo American's Brazilian nickel business. The deal, worth about $500 million, involves two nickel - iron mines and two Brazilian construction projects. The investigation aims to address concerns about potential impacts on the EU stainless steel industry's competitiveness and raw material prices. The deadline for the adjustment phase is March 20, 2026 [2]. - Huayou Cobalt: Huayou Cobalt stated that its precursor business can achieve full self - supply of nickel raw materials. The Indonesian Pomalaa project is expected to be completed and put into production next year. The company will focus on upstream resource development and overseas material capacity layout to enhance self - supply and competitiveness [2]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Nickel: The trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - Stainless Steel: It is recommended to hold short positions. If the current price cannot effectively break through the support level, take profit and wait and see [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is in a pattern of high inventory and oversupply, with nickel prices expected to remain in low - level oscillations. A significant reduction in Philippine nickel ore supply in the fourth quarter may lead to a nickel price rebound [1][2]. - The stainless - steel market shows weak demand recovery and loose cost support, and stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 5, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 119,860 yuan/ton and closed at 120,030 yuan/ton, a - 0.24% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 123,448 (+577) lots, and the open interest was 115,164 (-3296) lots. The price fluctuated within a range of about 1,390 yuan, with a significant narrowing compared to previous days. The SHFE nickel inventory increased by 1,977 tons to 32,929 tons, and the LME nickel inventory, although unchanged at 252,750 tons, had a cumulative increase of 20,300 tons in the past month and an 8.79% year - on - year increase [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market has been calm with stable prices. There is a gap between supply and demand, and market sentiment is cautious. In the Philippines, increased rainfall and the typhoon "Seagull" may cause delays in shipping. Downstream nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and iron plants are reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with a premium range of +25 - 27 [1][2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,100 yuan/ton from the previous day. Due to the large price drop, spot trading was good, and the spot premium of each brand remained stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed to 2,800 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly use range - bound operations. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 5, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract opened at 12,555 yuan/ton and closed at 12,535 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 90,380 (-21,042) lots, and the open interest was 74,412 (-4,171) lots. Affected by Shanghai nickel and the black - metal sector, the price showed a weak oscillation, with a fluctuation range of about 100 yuan, further narrowing from the previous day [2][3]. - **Spot**: Market pessimism intensified, spot prices were generally lowered, but trading remained weak. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,850 (-50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 12,900 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 315 - 615 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 919.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The stainless - steel market rebounded last week, but its actual impact on the spot market was limited. Although the crude steel production continued to grow, the actual output was lower than the initial production plan due to some enterprises' production reduction and control strategies. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is coming to an end, the terminal demand release is lower than expected, and the market activity remains low. Downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs, with low acceptance of high - priced resources, and most transactions are concentrated on low - priced resources. In terms of raw materials, the prices of high - nickel iron, high - carbon ferrochrome, and molybdenum iron are generally under pressure, weakening the cost support for stainless steel to varying degrees. Under the dual pressure of weakened cost support and a loose supply - demand structure, the stainless - steel market is expected to continue its weak operation in the short term [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: On October 24, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 13,050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 935 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,810 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.43%. In October, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4714 million tons. In September, the crude steel production was 3.0661 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 163,300 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to September was 6.48%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude steel production of 300 - series stainless steel in September reached 1.4834 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%; the cold - rolled production of 300 - series in October was 730,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.77%. From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 658.3479 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 85.3087 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.89%. In September, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 7%, - 2%, - 3%, and 5.6% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in September was 20.7%. The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0274 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 74,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,553 tons. The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel last week were 182,800 tons, 649,300 tons, and 195,300 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 0.89% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel last week was 43,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30.66%, and the unloading volume was 98,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 47.43%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 935 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/nickel, and iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 94 yuan/nickel [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - On October 24, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 13,050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 935 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,810 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.43% [17]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong is about - 60 yuan (- 64) higher than the main contract, and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang is about 40 yuan (- 74) higher than the main contract. The trading volume of the contract was 218,446 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 22.13% [20]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was 0 (+ 80), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was - 10 (+ 135) [23]. 3.3 Supply Side - In October, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4714 million tons. In September, the crude steel production was 3.0661 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 163,300 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to September was 6.48% [27]. - According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude steel production of 300 - series stainless steel in September reached 1.4834 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%; the cold - rolled production of 300 - series in October was 730,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.77% [30]. - It is estimated that the monthly stainless - steel production in Indonesia in September was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 95,800 tons in September, a month - on - month increase of 0.49% [33]. - In September, the net export volume of stainless steel was 298,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.83% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.42%. The cumulative net export from January to September was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year [36]. 3.4 Demand Side - From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 658.3479 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 85.3087 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.89% [40]. - In September, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 7%, - 2%, - 3%, and 5.6% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in September was 20.7% [43]. - In September, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 135,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 13.45% and a year - on - year increase of 1.50%; the automobile sales volume in September was 3.2264 million units, a month - on - month increase of 12.94% and a year - on - year increase of 14.86% [46]. 3.5 Inventory - The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0274 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 74,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,553 tons [50]. - The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel last week were 182,800 tons, 649,300 tons, and 195,300 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 0.89% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel last week was 43,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30.66%, and the unloading volume was 98,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 47.43% [53]. 3.6 Cost Side - In September, the nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.51% and a year - on - year increase of 34.43%. Currently, the price of nickel ore with 1.5% Ni is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 14.9791 million wet tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.02% [57]. - The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 935 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/nickel, and iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 94 yuan/nickel [60]. - Last week, the price of chrome ore was 56 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.25 yuan/dry ton; the price of high - carbon ferrochrome was 8,400 yuan/50 - base ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/50 - base ton. In terms of production, the high - carbon ferrochrome production in September was 812,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% [63]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line is - 661 yuan/ton, and the profit rate is - 4.82% [66].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The nickel market has high inventories and an oversupplied pattern, so nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations. The stainless - steel market has weak downstream demand growth, increasing inventories, and weakening cost support, so it is expected to remain in range - bound oscillations [3][5]. Group 3: Nickel Market Analysis Futures - On October 23, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,100 yuan/ton and closed at 121,380 yuan/ton, a 0.19% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 93,921 (+20,070) lots, and the open interest was 127,005 (+5,694) lots. The main contract showed a volatile pattern of opening low and closing high, with a fluctuation range of only 0.44%. Supported by the expectation of loose liquidity and strong new - energy demand, along with the overall strength of the non - ferrous sector, the price oscillated upward [1]. Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and prices are stable. There is a certain price difference between supply and demand in the domestic market. In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area is about to enter the rainy season, and shipments are coming to an end. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase II) increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27. Indonesian factories have recently been purchasing raw materials [2]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of each brand increased slightly. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 26,881 (-72) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 250,854 (-24) tons [2]. Strategy - Due to high inventories and oversupply, it is expected that nickel prices will remain in low - level oscillations. The strategy is mainly range - bound operations for the single - side, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Group 4: Stainless - Steel Market Analysis Futures - On October 23, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,700 yuan/ton and closed at 12,765 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 151,385 (+52,175) lots, and the open interest was 166,411 (-4,171) lots. Driven by the strong nickel price, the main contract showed a volatile and strong trend with increasing volume and price, but there was a short - term oversold rebound. The continuous reduction of open interest in the main contract for 5 days reflects strong risk - aversion sentiment among funds, and the market doubts the sustainability of the rebound [3]. Spot - The driving effect of futures on spot is not obvious, and actual trading remains light. Spot prices remain low. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market is 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium is 335 - 635 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 934.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - Due to weak downstream demand growth, increasing inventories, and weakening cost support, stainless steel is expected to remain in a range - bound oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views - The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel show a fierce game between smelting - end inventory accumulation and the Indonesian nickel ore logic, with contradictions still accumulating. In the short - term, it's difficult to break through the narrow - range pattern, while long - term volatility is expected to increase. The core support lies in the cost of the pyrometallurgical path and the uncertainty of the Indonesian nickel ore supply governance policy [2]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel make it difficult to find an upward driving force, but the downward space is limited. The market may marginally stabilize and fluctuate. The long - term and short - term, as well as reality and expectation, are involved in the long - short game [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - demand situation**: The smelting end has returned to steep inventory accumulation, with the surplus concentrated in the refined nickel segment. The marginal supply of refined nickel increases while demand is weak, and the expected new production of pure nickel in the second half of the year exerts pressure. Although the fundamentals of non - standard nickel have marginally improved, the conversion of refined nickel production has not effectively alleviated the inventory accumulation contradiction of refined nickel [2]. - **Supporting factors**: The uncertainties in the cost of the pyrometallurgical path and the Indonesian nickel ore supply governance policy support the price. For example, some areas of the WBN park were taken over due to violations of forestry license regulations, and mines failing to pay reclamation deposits were ordered to suspend production. The Indonesian government also urged enterprises to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget online, which may lead to increased market inventory and support the nickel ore price [2]. Stainless Steel Fundamental Analysis - **Demand side**: The overdraft effect of early export rush has been basically digested, but demand is still suppressed by the resonance of tariff barriers and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of apparent demand is only half of the previous year, 2.6% [3]. - **Supply side**: The supply growth rate has declined compared with previous years but has a marginal increase. The production plan for October is 3.45 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The 300 - series is about 1.77 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year/month - on - month increase of 4.2%/3.5%. The total supply (including imports) cumulative growth rate is expected to be 1.8% [3]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The cumulative surplus (inventory accumulation) has converged compared with previous years. In the long - term, the stainless - steel industry may shift from a one - sided valuation - reduction logic of strong supply and weak demand to a bottom - seeking thinking of both weak supply and demand. In the short - term, there is no upward driving force in the fundamentals, but the cost limits the downward space [3]. Inventory Tracking - **Refined nickel**: On October 17, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,875 tons to 47,505 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,814 tons to 27,042 tons, the spot inventory increased by 261 tons to 16,573 tons, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 200 tons to 3,890 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 13,152 tons to 250,530 tons [6]. - **New energy**: On October 17, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate's upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed by - 1, - 1, + 1 month - on - month to 4, 8, 7 days respectively; the precursor inventory on October 17 changed by - 1 month - on - month to 13.0 days; the ternary material inventory on October 9 remained unchanged month - on - month at 7.1 days [6]. - **Nickel - iron and stainless steel**: On October 15, the SMM nickel - iron inventory was 29,062 tons, with a stable and slightly increasing month - on - month trend and a year - on - year increase of 41%. In September, the SMM stainless - steel mill inventory was 1.532 million tons, a year - on - month/month - on - month increase/decrease of 4%/ - 1%. On October 16, the Mysteel stainless - steel social inventory was 1.0412 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.18%, and the 300 - series inventory was 655,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.02% [6]. Market News - **Indonesian mining sanctions**: Due to violations of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over a 148 - hectare mining area of PT WedaBav Nickel. The Indonesian government also imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies for failing to provide claim and refund guarantees [7][8]. - **Policy regulations**: The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order regarding the preparation, submission, and approval procedures of the mining RKAB and the reporting procedures for activity implementation. The approval plan for the next - year's RKAB is expected to be completed by November 15 this year [9]. - **Trade news**: China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Trump claimed to impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1 and implement export controls on "all key software" [8][9]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - **Futures prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,160, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,630. There were also corresponding price changes compared with previous periods [11]. - **Trading volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 76,335, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 147,948, with different volume changes compared with previous periods [11]. - **Industrial chain data**: Data such as the price of 1 imported nickel, Russian nickel premium, nickel bean premium, and various product spreads and import profits were provided, showing different trends compared with previous periods [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In September, steel mills maintained stable supply, but the new supply from leading steel mills was limited. The increase in Qing - series hot - rolled resources alleviated the previous tight supply situation. Although the inventory was in the process of depletion, the overall demand performance was relatively dull, and the expectation of the peak season was not fully realized, which put some pressure on the market. Economic data showed that the real estate industry was still weak, and the market was filled with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome were running strongly, continuously squeezing the profits of steel mills. Overall, the contradictions between the supply and demand sides of stainless steel were insufficient, and the market expectation remained pessimistic. Looking forward to October, as Indonesia issued the RKAB Ministerial Order again, the approval plan for mines in 2026 is expected to be passed before November 15 this year. If the approval process is delayed, it may further tighten the nickel ore supply pattern in the first quarter of 2026. Whether the demand can improve before the end of the peak season is still the key to whether the stainless - steel market can start [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Monthly Key Points Summary**: On October 10, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 13,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 955 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,860 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%. In September, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule was 1.5156 million tons, and the crude steel output was 2.9028 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 78,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.48% from January to September. In August, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4336 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%; the cold - rolled output of 300 - series in September was 783,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.21%. From January to August 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 573.0392 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.70%; in August, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 57.4415 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.98%. In August, the year - on - year changes of refrigerator/household freezer/washing machine/air conditioner were - 1/2.5/12.3/ - 1.6% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry in August was 19.3%. Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 975,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 87,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,229 tons. Last week, the social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 172,400/617,100/186,400 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 0.99% week - on - week; the floating stock of stainless steel last week was 55,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.79%. Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 960 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/nickel, and the ironworks in Fujian were currently running at a loss of 74 yuan/nickel [11]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The base price was 90 yuan/ton, the production profit was 2.9028 million tons, the demand was - 634, the supply was 3.0357 million tons, and the inventory was 975,900 tons. The multi - empty scores and simple evaluations of all aspects were neutral [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - On October 10, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 13,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 955 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,860 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%. The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about - 10 yuan (+22) higher than the main contract; the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about 90 yuan (+82) higher than the main contract. The trading volume of the disk was 269,578 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75%. In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 20 (+25), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 90 (+10) [16][19][22]. 3.3 Supply Side - In September, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule was 1.5156 million tons. The crude steel output in September was 2.9028 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 78,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.48% from January to September. In August, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4336 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%; the cold - rolled output of 300 - series in September was 783,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.21%. It is estimated that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in September was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. In August, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 95,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 106.40%. In August, the net export volume of stainless steel was 330,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.46%; from January to August, the cumulative net export volume was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared with the same period last year [26][29][32][35]. 3.4 Demand Side - From January to August 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 573.0392 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.70%; in August, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 57.4415 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.98%. In August, the year - on - year changes of refrigerator/household freezer/washing machine/air conditioner were - 1/2.5/12.3/ - 1.6% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry in August was 19.3%. In August, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 119,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 3.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03%; the automobile sales volume in August was 2.8566 million units, a month - on - month increase of 10.15% and a year - on - year increase of 16.44% [39][42][45]. 3.5 Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 975,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 87,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,229 tons. Last week, the social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 172,400/617,100/186,400 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 0.99% week - on - week; the floating stock of stainless steel last week was 55,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.79% [49][52]. 3.6 Cost Side - In August, the nickel ore import volume was 6.3467 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.92% and a year - on - year increase of 29.87%. Currently, the price of nickel ore with 1.5% Ni is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 14.0937 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.66%. Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 960 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/nickel, and the ironworks in Fujian were currently running at a loss of 74 yuan/nickel. Last week, the price of chrome ore was reported at 56.5 yuan/dry ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/dry ton; the price of high - carbon ferrochrome was reported at 8,600 yuan/50 base tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/50 base tons. In terms of output, the output of high - carbon ferrochrome in September was 812,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%. Currently, the gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line is - 634 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches - 4.6% [56][59][62][65].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: There is a game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and attention should be paid to news disturbances [1]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between short - term supply - demand and cost, and steel prices will fluctuate [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,900, down 200 from T - 1; the trading volume was 127,190, up 29,433 from T - 1 [1]. - For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,730, down 30 from T - 1; the trading volume was 224,083, down 51,373 from T - 1 [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: - The price of 1 imported nickel was 121,650, up 450 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 954, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - The price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 13,100, unchanged from T - 1; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 28,260, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Indonesian Policy**: - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and control coal and ore supply [1]. - The Indonesian government requires mining companies to resubmit the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) starting from October 2025 [4]. - The Indonesian government will punish illegal mining, with reports of 1063 illegal mines [4]. - **Production Changes**: - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, affecting about 1900 metal tons of nickel - iron production per month [2][4]. - A Shandong steel mill started maintenance due to a 5% annual production reduction target, suspending long - term supply agreements for hot - rolled coil [4]. - The Indonesian forestry working group took over a 148 - hectare nickel mine of PT WedaBav Nickel, affecting about 600 metal tons of nickel ore production per month [5]. - The Indonesian government sanctioned 190 mining companies for not providing claim and refund guarantees [6]. - **Other News**: - China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is +1, and that of stainless steel is +1, indicating a relatively strong trend for both [7].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and a persistent supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For the stainless - steel market, with the end of eleven consecutive inventory declines and the start of inventory accumulation, along with a gradual weakening of cost support, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in a bottom - level oscillation [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 29, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2511 opened at 121,560 yuan/ton and closed at 121,100 yuan/ton, a - 0.61% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 97,757 (- 65,749) lots, and the open interest was 83,149 (- 735) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation with a trading range of less than 1,000 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 40% compared to the previous day due to the approaching National Day holiday [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The domestic market was calm with stable prices. Near the holiday, the market was in a wait - and - see mode with no transactions. In the Philippines, Surigao mines are about to enter the rainy season, with firm quotes and good loading efficiency. Downstream iron plants are still in the red, maintaining a cautious and price - pressing attitude towards nickel ore procurement, and there is no obvious pre - holiday stockpiling. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market supply remains in a loose pattern. The domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase I) is expected to rise by 0.16 - 0.28 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium is likely to rise [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,200 yuan/ton, a 600 - yuan decrease from the previous day. Spot trading was average, and the premium and discount of some brands decreased due to the monthly spread adjustment. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,300 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 325 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 25,057 (- 96) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 231,312 (1,188) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The recommended strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation, with no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 29, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,850 yuan/ton and closed at 12,760 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 163,271 (- 12,046) lots, and the open interest was 87,251 (- 4,171) lots. The price showed an oscillating decline. After opening, it once reached the daily high of 12,855 yuan/ton but was suppressed by long - liquidation and short - increasing, finally closing 90 yuan lower than the previous day. The decrease in trading volume and open interest reflects the strong pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment of market participants and the obvious short - term capital withdrawal [3]. - **Spot**: Affected by the decline in the futures market and the loosening of nickel - based raw material prices, the confidence in the stainless - steel spot market is insufficient. Moreover, as most pre - holiday stockpiling is completed near the National Day holiday, the market is in a wait - and - see mode with light trading. Some traders are mainly busy with the delivery of previous orders. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets are 13,100 (- 50) yuan/ton, and the premium and discount of 304/2B are 330 - 630 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 954.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - The recommended strategy for stainless - steel is neutral, with no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5].