01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 政策预期偏强， 原料价格出现反弹 不锈钢月报 2026/01/04 陈逸 （联系人） cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03137504 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 0755-23375125 目录 | 不锈钢基本面评估 | 估值 驱动 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基差（元/吨） 生产利润（元/吨） 供给端 | | 需求端 | 库存 | | 数据 | -140 304.86万吨 | -165 | 314.91万吨 | 100.51万吨 | | 多空评分 | 0 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 简评 | 中性 中性 | 中性 | 中性 | 中性 | | 小结 | 12月底受印尼2026年RKAB计划设定约2.5亿吨镍矿配额消息推动，镍价带动不锈钢价格持续走强。供应方面，钢厂到货 有限，贸易商补库需求有所提升，带动库存进一步下降。成本端，在印尼政策预期支撑下，镍铁价格表现坚挺，现货成 交价回升至920-930元/镍。不过，现货市场 ...

《先驱报》12月24日报道，得益于铂族金属的复苏，截至2025年11月，津巴布韦2025年矿产出口增 长10%。铂族金属锍的出口收入飙升至13亿美元，出口量为35,818吨，较2024年同期的8.756亿美元大幅 增长。锂辉石占总出口收入的15.75%，高碳铬铁销售额达到3.331亿美元，销量同比增长11%，价值增 长6%，焦炭销量增长7%，创收1.629亿美元。 （原标题：津巴布韦前11个月矿产出口增长10%） 津矿产营销公司总经理莫约在媒体招待会上表示，该公司有信心实现2025年的业绩目标，在坚挺的 大宗商品价格支撑下，预计积极势头将持续到2026年。 ...

淡季供需紧平衡， 方向有待新驱动 不锈钢周报 2025/12/13 陈逸 （联系人） cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03137504 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 0755-23375125 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 供给端 06 成本端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 期现市场：据MYSTEEL，12月12日无锡不锈钢冷轧卷板均价报12800元/吨，环比+0.79%；山东7%-10%镍铁出厂价为890元/镍，环比+0.00%； 废不锈钢均价报8700元/吨，环比+1.18%。不锈钢主力合约周五下午收盘价12565元/吨，环比+0.52%。 供给：据MYSTEEL，12月国内冷轧不锈钢排产144.59万吨。11月粗钢产量为304.86万吨，环比-1.59万吨，1-11月累计同比6.48%。据MYSTEEL 样本统计，11月300系不锈钢粗钢产量预计达140.62万吨，环比-3.00%；12月300系冷轧产量68.81万吨，环比-1.76%。 需求：据WIND数据，国内2024年1-10月 ...

成本下移拉低估值， 需求边际有所改善 不锈钢月报 2025/12/05 陈逸 （联系人） cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03137504 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 0755-23375125 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 供给端 06 成本端 月度评估及策略推荐 月度要点小结 期现市场：据MYSTEEL，12月05日无锡不锈钢冷轧卷板均价报12700元/吨，环比+0.00%；山东7%-10%镍铁出厂价为890元/镍，环比+0.00%； 废不锈钢均价报8550元/吨，环比+0.60%。不锈钢主力合约周五下午收盘价12425元/吨，环比+0.12%。 供给：据MYSTEEL，11月国内冷轧不锈钢排产141.26万吨。10月粗钢产量为306.45万吨，环比-0.16万吨，1-10月累计同比6.48%。据MYSTEEL 样本统计，10月300系不锈钢粗钢产量预计达144.97万吨，环比-2.27%；11月300系冷轧产量70.04万吨，环比-4.16%。 需求：据WIND数据，国内2024年1-1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel are weak, and both are continuing to find their bottoms. The nickel market is in a situation of "tightening in the long - term, but loose in the short - term" due to the new Indonesian policy, and stainless steel is affected by factors such as real - estate downturn and slowdown in home appliance exports [1][3]. - It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation, but attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply, which may cause a rebound in nickel prices. Stainless steel prices are also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation due to low demand, inventory accumulation, and a downward shift in cost centers [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 12, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2512 opened at 119,300 yuan/ton and closed at 118,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.62% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 98,248 (+28,336) lots, and the open interest was 116,829 (1,929) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation pattern. The new Indonesian policy on nickel smelter investment restrictions may tighten capacity expansion in the long - term, but the short - term production capacity of wet - process intermediate products is still being released. The weak stainless - steel consumption on the demand side leads to insufficient rebound power in the Shanghai nickel market [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market is calm, and prices are stable. In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area is affected by typhoons, and the shipping efficiency is delayed. The price of downstream nickel - iron is falling, and iron plants have a lower psychological price for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November is expected to be lowered by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27 [1]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market is 122,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. After the Shanghai nickel price fell below 120,000 yuan, the spot market is more watchful, and trading is light. The spot premiums of various brands have not changed. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 31,824 (-468) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 252,114 (-1,194) tons [2]. Strategy - It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading. Attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply, which may cause a rebound in nickel prices [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 12, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,520 yuan/ton and closed at 12,485 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 85,852 (-22,462) lots, and the open interest was 137,838 (-4,171) lots. Affected by the decline in Shanghai nickel prices, the contract continued its weak oscillation. Although domestic steel mills' losses are increasing, the inertia of capacity release remains, and the demand side is still sluggish due to factors such as the real - estate downturn and slowdown in home appliance exports. Overall, stainless steel is still in a bottom - grinding state [3]. - **Spot**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and spot trading is sluggish. Many traders are selling at low prices to recover funds, and the daily quotes continue to decline slightly. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 12,825 (-25) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 335 to 685 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 909.0 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - It is expected that stainless - steel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

Core Viewpoint - The high carbon ferrochrome market is currently influenced by both "weak reality" and "weak expectations," leading to a lack of market confidence, although short-term attention is needed on raw material adjustments, downstream stainless steel market changes, and effective demand release [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The current market price for high carbon ferrochrome is around 8100-8300 CNY per 50 base tons, reflecting a weak and cautious market outlook [2] - Terminal demand remains sluggish, with the stainless steel market continuing to operate weakly, which has intensified negative sentiment towards ferrochrome [2] - Recent trading activity in the high carbon ferrochrome market has been lackluster, with strong price-cutting sentiment towards chrome ore, although a decline in chrome ore prices has created some bargaining pressure in the ferrochrome market [2] Group 2: Chrome Ore Market - The latest price for South African chrome concentrate (40-42% grade) at Tianjin Port is reported at 282 USD per ton, remaining stable compared to previous periods [4] - A detailed price table for chrome ore indicates various grades and their corresponding prices, with South African block ore (36%-38% grade) priced at 52-54 CNY per ton and South African concentrate (42%-44% grade) priced at 300-310 USD per ton [5]

Group 1: Report Title and Investment Rating - Report Title: Entertainment and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20251106: Weak Cost Support, Hold Short Positions in Stainless Steel [1] - Investment Rating: Not provided Group 2: Core Views - Nickel: On November 5, the main nickel contract fluctuated weakly. The trading volume was 123,448 lots (+577), and the open interest was 115,164 lots (-3,296). LME nickel fell 0.40%. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium decreased. The supply side showed that nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports increased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel pig iron plants' losses deepened, and production decreased in November, while Indonesian production increased. Nickel pig iron inventories tightened. In November, domestic electrolytic nickel production decreased, and export profits expanded. On the demand side, ternary production increased, stainless steel plant production decreased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable. In terms of inventory, SHFE inventory increased, LME inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded area inventory decreased. Overall, the nickel fundamentals were weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation was at a low level, and nickel prices were expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. - Stainless Steel: On November 5, the main stainless steel contract fluctuated downward. The trading volume was 90,380 lots (-21,042), and the open interest was 74,412 lots (-1,663). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium expanded. In terms of inventory, SHFE inventory remained flat, and last week's 300-series social inventory was 613,600 tons (+900). On the supply side, stainless steel production decreased in November, and 300-series production was basically flat. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. At the cost end, high-nickel pig iron prices fell, and high-carbon ferrochrome prices remained flat. Overall, the fundamentals were loose, cost support was weak, and stainless steel was expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. Group 3: Market Data Summary Nickel Market - **Futures Contracts**: The closing prices of nickel futures contracts on November 5 showed various changes compared to the previous day and two weeks ago. For example, the near-month contract closed at 119,720 yuan/ton (+330), the continuous first contract at 120,030 yuan/ton (+330), etc. [2] - **Spot Market**: The average prices of various nickel products such as SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, and imported nickel also changed. For instance, SMM 1 electrolytic nickel's average price was 120,950 yuan/ton (-850) [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE nickel inventory increased, LME nickel inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded area inventory decreased [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Futures Contracts**: The closing prices of stainless steel futures contracts on November 5 also changed. For example, the near-month contract closed at 12,550 yuan/ton (0), the continuous first contract at 12,535 yuan/ton (-10) [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average prices of different types of stainless steel products such as 304/2B coils and 316L/2B coils decreased. For example, 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) average price was 17,950 yuan/ton (-500) [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE stainless steel inventory remained flat, and last week's 300-series social inventory was 613,600 tons (+900) [2]. Group 4: Industry News - EU Investigation: The European Commission announced an in - depth investigation into MMG's acquisition of Anglo American's Brazilian nickel business. The deal, worth about $500 million, involves two nickel - iron mines and two Brazilian construction projects. The investigation aims to address concerns about potential impacts on the EU stainless steel industry's competitiveness and raw material prices. The deadline for the adjustment phase is March 20, 2026 [2]. - Huayou Cobalt: Huayou Cobalt stated that its precursor business can achieve full self - supply of nickel raw materials. The Indonesian Pomalaa project is expected to be completed and put into production next year. The company will focus on upstream resource development and overseas material capacity layout to enhance self - supply and competitiveness [2]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Nickel: The trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - Stainless Steel: It is recommended to hold short positions. If the current price cannot effectively break through the support level, take profit and wait and see [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is in a pattern of high inventory and oversupply, with nickel prices expected to remain in low - level oscillations. A significant reduction in Philippine nickel ore supply in the fourth quarter may lead to a nickel price rebound [1][2]. - The stainless - steel market shows weak demand recovery and loose cost support, and stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 5, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 119,860 yuan/ton and closed at 120,030 yuan/ton, a - 0.24% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 123,448 (+577) lots, and the open interest was 115,164 (-3296) lots. The price fluctuated within a range of about 1,390 yuan, with a significant narrowing compared to previous days. The SHFE nickel inventory increased by 1,977 tons to 32,929 tons, and the LME nickel inventory, although unchanged at 252,750 tons, had a cumulative increase of 20,300 tons in the past month and an 8.79% year - on - year increase [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market has been calm with stable prices. There is a gap between supply and demand, and market sentiment is cautious. In the Philippines, increased rainfall and the typhoon "Seagull" may cause delays in shipping. Downstream nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and iron plants are reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with a premium range of +25 - 27 [1][2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,100 yuan/ton from the previous day. Due to the large price drop, spot trading was good, and the spot premium of each brand remained stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed to 2,800 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly use range - bound operations. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 5, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract opened at 12,555 yuan/ton and closed at 12,535 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 90,380 (-21,042) lots, and the open interest was 74,412 (-4,171) lots. Affected by Shanghai nickel and the black - metal sector, the price showed a weak oscillation, with a fluctuation range of about 100 yuan, further narrowing from the previous day [2][3]. - **Spot**: Market pessimism intensified, spot prices were generally lowered, but trading remained weak. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,850 (-50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 12,900 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 315 - 615 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 919.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The stainless - steel market rebounded last week, but its actual impact on the spot market was limited. Although the crude steel production continued to grow, the actual output was lower than the initial production plan due to some enterprises' production reduction and control strategies. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is coming to an end, the terminal demand release is lower than expected, and the market activity remains low. Downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs, with low acceptance of high - priced resources, and most transactions are concentrated on low - priced resources. In terms of raw materials, the prices of high - nickel iron, high - carbon ferrochrome, and molybdenum iron are generally under pressure, weakening the cost support for stainless steel to varying degrees. Under the dual pressure of weakened cost support and a loose supply - demand structure, the stainless - steel market is expected to continue its weak operation in the short term [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: On October 24, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 13,050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 935 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,810 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.43%. In October, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4714 million tons. In September, the crude steel production was 3.0661 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 163,300 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to September was 6.48%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude steel production of 300 - series stainless steel in September reached 1.4834 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%; the cold - rolled production of 300 - series in October was 730,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.77%. From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 658.3479 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 85.3087 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.89%. In September, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 7%, - 2%, - 3%, and 5.6% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in September was 20.7%. The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0274 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 74,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,553 tons. The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel last week were 182,800 tons, 649,300 tons, and 195,300 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 0.89% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel last week was 43,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30.66%, and the unloading volume was 98,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 47.43%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 935 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/nickel, and iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 94 yuan/nickel [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - On October 24, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 13,050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 935 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,810 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.43% [17]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong is about - 60 yuan (- 64) higher than the main contract, and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang is about 40 yuan (- 74) higher than the main contract. The trading volume of the contract was 218,446 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 22.13% [20]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was 0 (+ 80), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was - 10 (+ 135) [23]. 3.3 Supply Side - In October, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4714 million tons. In September, the crude steel production was 3.0661 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 163,300 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to September was 6.48% [27]. - According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude steel production of 300 - series stainless steel in September reached 1.4834 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%; the cold - rolled production of 300 - series in October was 730,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.77% [30]. - It is estimated that the monthly stainless - steel production in Indonesia in September was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 95,800 tons in September, a month - on - month increase of 0.49% [33]. - In September, the net export volume of stainless steel was 298,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.83% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.42%. The cumulative net export from January to September was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year [36]. 3.4 Demand Side - From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 658.3479 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 85.3087 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.89% [40]. - In September, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 7%, - 2%, - 3%, and 5.6% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in September was 20.7% [43]. - In September, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 135,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 13.45% and a year - on - year increase of 1.50%; the automobile sales volume in September was 3.2264 million units, a month - on - month increase of 12.94% and a year - on - year increase of 14.86% [46]. 3.5 Inventory - The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0274 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 74,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,553 tons [50]. - The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel last week were 182,800 tons, 649,300 tons, and 195,300 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 0.89% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel last week was 43,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30.66%, and the unloading volume was 98,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 47.43% [53]. 3.6 Cost Side - In September, the nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.51% and a year - on - year increase of 34.43%. Currently, the price of nickel ore with 1.5% Ni is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 14.9791 million wet tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.02% [57]. - The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 935 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/nickel, and iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 94 yuan/nickel [60]. - Last week, the price of chrome ore was 56 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.25 yuan/dry ton; the price of high - carbon ferrochrome was 8,400 yuan/50 - base ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/50 - base ton. In terms of production, the high - carbon ferrochrome production in September was 812,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% [63]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line is - 661 yuan/ton, and the profit rate is - 4.82% [66].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The nickel market has high inventories and an oversupplied pattern, so nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations. The stainless - steel market has weak downstream demand growth, increasing inventories, and weakening cost support, so it is expected to remain in range - bound oscillations [3][5]. Group 3: Nickel Market Analysis Futures - On October 23, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,100 yuan/ton and closed at 121,380 yuan/ton, a 0.19% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 93,921 (+20,070) lots, and the open interest was 127,005 (+5,694) lots. The main contract showed a volatile pattern of opening low and closing high, with a fluctuation range of only 0.44%. Supported by the expectation of loose liquidity and strong new - energy demand, along with the overall strength of the non - ferrous sector, the price oscillated upward [1]. Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and prices are stable. There is a certain price difference between supply and demand in the domestic market. In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area is about to enter the rainy season, and shipments are coming to an end. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase II) increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27. Indonesian factories have recently been purchasing raw materials [2]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of each brand increased slightly. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 26,881 (-72) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 250,854 (-24) tons [2]. Strategy - Due to high inventories and oversupply, it is expected that nickel prices will remain in low - level oscillations. The strategy is mainly range - bound operations for the single - side, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Group 4: Stainless - Steel Market Analysis Futures - On October 23, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,700 yuan/ton and closed at 12,765 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 151,385 (+52,175) lots, and the open interest was 166,411 (-4,171) lots. Driven by the strong nickel price, the main contract showed a volatile and strong trend with increasing volume and price, but there was a short - term oversold rebound. The continuous reduction of open interest in the main contract for 5 days reflects strong risk - aversion sentiment among funds, and the market doubts the sustainability of the rebound [3]. Spot - The driving effect of futures on spot is not obvious, and actual trading remains light. Spot prices remain low. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market is 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium is 335 - 635 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 934.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - Due to weak downstream demand growth, increasing inventories, and weakening cost support, stainless steel is expected to remain in a range - bound oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].