镍与不锈钢日评20250822:"反内卷"情绪变化快、波动大 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-08-21 | 2025-08-20 | 2025-08-14 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 119700.00 | 119930.00 | 121000.00 | -230.00 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | J | 119830.00 | 120060.00 | 121200.00 | -230.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 期货连二合约 | -270.00 | 收盘价 | 120030.00 | 120300.00 | 121340.00 | | | | | 120290.00 | 120510.00 | -220.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 121530.00 | 1 | 119830.00 | 119930.00 | 121200.00 | -100.00 | ...

Group 1: Nickel Market Analysis - On August 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2510 opened at 120,010 yuan/ton and closed at 119,830 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 90,715 lots and an open interest of 102,385 lots [1]. - In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,430 yuan/ton, then quickly rose to 121,080 yuan/ton, but then fell under pressure, reaching a minimum of 119,620 yuan/ton and finally closing at 120,060 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan/ton or 0.46%, with a trading volume of 77,982 lots. The daily session opened at 120,010 yuan/ton, fluctuated between 119,780 - 120,590 yuan/ton, and closed at 119,830 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan/ton or 0.30% from the previous settlement price, with an enlarged trading volume of 90,715 lots. The LME nickel price fell to 15,050 US dollars/ton during the daily session, intensifying the bearish sentiment in the domestic market [2]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The procurement enthusiasm of downstream enterprises slightly improved. The spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were basically stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,500 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,588 (29.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 209,598 (252) tons [3]. Strategy - The pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The production capacity of nickel intermediate products continues to be released, and the price of the ore end is loosening. In the short term, the nickel price will mainly fluctuate and move closer to the cost below. The recommended strategy is mainly range - bound operation for single - side trading, and no operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On August 21, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2510 opened at 12,830 yuan/ton and closed at 12,795 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 99,736 lots and an open interest of 138,810 lots [4]. - In the night session, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 12,870 yuan/ton, rose to 12,895 yuan/ton, then fell under pressure, reaching a minimum of 12,765 yuan/ton and finally closing at 12,820 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton or 0.81%, with a trading volume of 149,736 lots. The daily session opened at 12,830 yuan/ton, fluctuated between 12,785 - 12,860 yuan/ton, and closed at 12,795 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous settlement price, with an enlarged trading volume of 99,736 lots. The spot market prices in Wuxi and Foshan were 13,050 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 330 - 530 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 928.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - Currently in the traditional off - season of consumption, demand is weak, and affected by macro news, it is expected that the stainless steel price will fluctuate weakly in a range in the near future. The recommended strategy is mainly range - bound operation for single - side trading, and no operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel market: The expectation of nickel surplus persists, with general spot trading. Downstream demand has increased slightly overall due to the rise in stainless - steel production in August. The supply side has also seen a slight increase month - on - month, resulting in a slow increase in inventory. Nickel prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to changes in the macro - situation [6]. - Stainless - steel market: The global economic outlook and tariff policy changes still affect the external demand for stainless steel, and the Fed's decisions also influence the macro - atmosphere. Stainless - steel prices lack upward demand drivers but are supported by costs at the bottom, so they are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory 3.1.1 Nickel - Global Nickel Inventory Slow Accumulation - Global visible inventory stands at 258,000 tons, including 211,000 tons in LME inventory, 27,000 tons in SHFE inventory, and 41,000 tons in SMM's six - location social inventory [11]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - Social Inventory Reduction - Steel mills have fine - tuned the arrival volume of goods in the spot market, with limited new supplies. Social inventory has decreased for five consecutive weeks. Some steel mills that had centralized maintenance in August have announced复产 plans [8]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Nickel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: From January to July, the cumulative production of refined nickel increased by 40% year - on - year to 229,000 tons. It is expected that the total domestic refined nickel production in August will be 32,500 tons, a slight increase of 1% month - on - month. In the first six months of 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 5,093 tons, compared with a net export of 922 tons in the same period last year [23]. - **Demand**: From January to July, the cumulative consumption of pure nickel increased by 3% year - on - year to 170,000 tons. In July, the downstream demand for nickel improved, and the PMI of the nickel downstream industry returned to the 50 boom - bust line, mainly driven by the recovery of stainless steel. The demand for electroplating and alloys remained stable, while that for batteries declined slightly [27]. 3.2.2 Stainless - Steel Raw Materials - **Nickel Ore**: The price of nickel ore has stabilized. The rainy season is approaching in the Philippines, and nickel mines are showing a strong price - holding sentiment. Some mines have reported higher FOB prices for September shipments. In Indonesia, the premium for domestic nickel ore in August remained at HPM + 24 (excluding rewards) [29]. - **NPI**: The NPI price has rebounded following the stainless - steel market. The latest transaction price of NPI has risen above 950 yuan per nickel point, and the raw material side is relatively strong [8]. - **Chromium Series**: Chromium ore prices have remained stable for a long time. In August 2025, Tsingshan Group's long - term contract purchase price for high - carbon ferrochrome was 7,995 yuan per 50 - base ton (cash - inclusive delivered - to - factory price), a decrease of 100 yuan per 50 - base ton compared with July [36]. - **Cold - Rolled Cost**: The cold - rolled cost has increased. Taking high - nickel iron at 950 yuan per nickel point and high - carbon ferrochrome at 8,150 yuan per 50 - base ton as an example, the estimated cold - rolled cash cost is around 13,300 yuan per ton [39]. 3.2.3 Stainless - Steel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: From January to July, the combined stainless - steel crude steel production in China and India was 25.86 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. In August, production in Indonesia resumed, and domestic production remained basically flat. The planned production increased by 30,000 tons compared with July and remained at a high level [47]. - **Demand**: The production plan of white - goods has declined, while the shipbuilding industry provides support. In the first six months of 2025, China's stainless - steel import volume was 827,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25%, and the export volume was 2.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The net export volume was 1.673 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33% [47]. 3.2.4 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Sales**: From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 41.4% and 40.3%. The retail sales of new energy vehicles from August 1 - 10 were 262,000, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 6%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicle retail sales was 57.9% [56]. - **Overseas Market**: From January to June 2025, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 30.8% year - on - year to 9.55 million. In the US, sales increased by 0.6% year - on - year to 828,000, and in Europe, sales increased by 22.4% year - on - year to 1.756 million. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to July increased by 81% year - on - year to 1.281 million [60]. 3.2.5 Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - **Production**: From January to July, China's sulfuric acid nickel production decreased by 17.4% year - on - year to 182,000 tons. The production of ternary precursors decreased by 3% year - on - year to 462,000 tons, and the production of ternary cathode materials increased by 8% year - on - year to 420,000 tons [62]. - **Raw Materials**: From January to July, Indonesia's MHP production increased by 57% year - on - year to 243,000 tons, while high - grade nickel matte production decreased by 39% year - on - year to 98,000 tons [64]. 3.2.6 Supply - Demand Balance - In July, the shortage of primary nickel narrowed, while pure nickel remained in surplus [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, driven by the overall price - rising atmosphere, steel mills and agents had smooth sales, and the inventory digestion speed accelerated. Currently, the inventory of Qing - series agents has significantly decreased. With steel mills' recent suspension of distribution for the 300 - series, agent spot resources are becoming scarce, especially in hot - rolled specifications. Traders have relatively sufficient inventory due to previous active restocking. Since July, stimulated by the "anti - involution" policy, the restocking enthusiasm in the trading sector has been high, but limited by the actual terminal demand, the social inventory remains at a high level. The nickel - iron market is dull, with steel mills and traders mostly adopting a wait - and - see attitude, while high - nickel - iron producers have a strong willingness to hold prices. It is expected that with the production increase of steel mills in August, the demand for high - nickel iron will increase month - on - month, and the oversupply situation of nickel iron is expected to improve. Overall, the stainless - steel price may maintain a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the suppression effect of the 13130 pressure level on the price [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: - **Periodic and Spot Market**: On August 2nd, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,900 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 910 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,840 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [11]. - **Supply**: In July, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.5001 million tons. In June, the crude - steel output was 2.8711 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 145,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June was 8.11%. In June, the estimated crude - steel output of the 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4262 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%; the cold - rolled output of the 300 - series was 706,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07% [11]. - **Demand**: From January to June 2024 in China, the commercial housing sales area was 4.585055 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.50%; in June, the single - month commercial housing sales area was 1.053536 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.55%. In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in June was + 14.4% [11]. - **Inventory**: This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1112 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts this week was 103,000 tons, a decrease of 368 tons compared with last week. This week, the social inventories of the 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 192,700 tons, 676,700 tons, and 241,800 tons respectively, among which the inventory of the 300 - series increased by 1.00% month - on - month. This week, the floating quantity of stainless steel was 43,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.59%, and the unloading quantity was 76,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.80% [11]. - **Cost**: This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 915 yuan/nickel, an increase of 0 yuan/nickel compared with last week. Iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 116 yuan/nickel [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 3.2. Periodic and Spot Market - On August 1st, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,900 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 910 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,840 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [17]. - The market quotation of Foshan Delong refers to a premium of about - 190 yuan (+ 75) compared with the main contract; the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang refers to a premium of about - 140 yuan (+ 75) compared with the main contract. The disk position was 203,902 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 13.45% [20]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 45 (- 15), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 100 (- 45) [23]. 3.3. Supply End - In July, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.5001 million tons. In June, the crude - steel output was 2.8711 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 145,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June was 8.11% [27]. - According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, in June, the estimated crude - steel output of the 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4262 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%; the cold - rolled output of the 300 - series was 706,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07% [30]. - It is estimated that in June, the monthly stainless - steel output in Indonesia was 360,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%. In June, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 85,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.72% [33]. - In June, the net export volume of stainless steel was 280,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.89% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.24%. From January to June, the cumulative net export was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared with the same period last year [36]. 3.4. Demand End - From January to June 2024 in China, the commercial housing sales area was 4.585055 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.50%; in June, the single - month commercial housing sales area was 1.053536 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.55% [40]. - In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in June was + 14.4% [43]. - In June, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 137,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 10.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.16%. In June, automobile sales were 2.9045 million units, a month - on - month increase of 8.12% and a year - on - year increase of 13.83% [46]. 3.5. Inventory - This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1112 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts this week was 103,000 tons, a decrease of 368 tons compared with last week [50]. - This week, the social inventories of the 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 192,700 tons, 676,700 tons, and 241,800 tons respectively, among which the inventory of the 300 - series increased by 1.00% month - on - month. This week, the floating quantity of stainless steel was 43,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.59%, and the unloading quantity was 76,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.80% [53]. 3.6. Cost End - In June, the nickel - ore import volume was 4.3466 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.47%. Currently, the nickel - ore quotation for Ni:1.5% nickel ore is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 9.9436 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.66% [57]. - This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 915 yuan/nickel, an increase of 0 yuan/nickel compared with last week. Iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 116 yuan/nickel [60]. - This week, the chromium - ore quotation was 55 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/dry ton compared with last week; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 7,900 yuan/50 - base ton, an increase of 100 yuan/50 - base ton compared with last week. In June, the high - carbon ferrochrome output was 775,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.53% [63]. - Currently, the gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel - iron production line is - 827 yuan/ton, and the profit rate reaches - 6.02%. With the warming of downstream consumption sentiment, the situation of steel mills has improved [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to the resonance of macro and news factors, with the policy expectations of macro - structural adjustment and supply optimization fermenting, but the logic between fundamental verification and macro expectations may fluctuate before clear policies on nickel are implemented. The nickel ore support is weakening, and the low - cost supply increment of refined nickel and high inventory in the ferronickel segment have an impact on the price [1]. - The marginal direction of stainless steel prices is dominated by macro sentiment, and the elasticity of the real - world fundamental logic is poor. The macro policy expectations on the domestic supply - side boost commodities, but a clear policy is needed for a trend - upward movement. The supply - demand of stainless steel shows a double - weak pattern, and the price is expected to follow the macro sentiment and fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Fundamentals - **Macro and News Factors**: Macro policy expectations are fermenting, but no clear policies on nickel have been implemented. Short - term policy news from Indonesia is frequent but within market expectations. APNI suggests re - evaluating the HPM formula for nickel ore, and the Indonesian government may change the RKAB approval cycle [1]. - **Real - world Situation**: The support of nickel ore is weakening, with the premium starting to decline in July after an increase in Indonesian quota approvals, and the fire - method cash cost has decreased by 1.4%. Refined nickel inventory is stable in the short term, but the expected increase in low - cost supply is a drag. Ferronickel inventory is high, but marginal restocking slightly boosts the price [1]. 3.2 Stainless Steel Fundamentals - **Macro and Real - world Logic**: Macro sentiment dominates the marginal direction of steel prices. The real - world fundamental logic has poor elasticity. The macro policy expectations on the supply - side boost commodities, but specific policies are needed for a trend - upward movement [2]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The supply - demand of stainless steel shows a double - weak pattern. The resonance production cuts in China and Indonesia from June to July have alleviated the over - supply situation. The apparent demand in June increased by 2% year - on - year, and the production in June increased by 4% year - on - year, while the production plan for July decreased [2]. 3.3 Inventory Changes - **Refined Nickel Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 135 tons to 39,114 tons, with an increase in warehouse receipt inventory and a decrease in spot inventory. LME nickel inventory decreased by 3,654 tons to 203,922 tons [3]. - **Ferronickel Inventory**: The ferronickel inventory in mid - July was 37,534 tons, up 50% year - on - year and down 11% month - on - month [5]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: On July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 2.54% week - on - week. The inventory of various types of stainless steel also decreased [5]. - **Nickel Ore Inventory**: The nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports increased by 395,100 wet tons to 9.8787 million wet tons [5]. 3.4 Market News - **Trade - related News**: In March, the governor of Ontario, Canada, proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [6]. - **Project - related News**: In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, entered the trial - production stage [6]. - **Environmental - related News**: Environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia, and possible fines may be imposed on the verified illegal companies [6]. - **Policy - related News**: Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year, and mining companies need to resubmit the 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [6][7]. - **Production - related News**: Due to long - term production losses, an Indonesian ferronickel smelting industrial park has suspended the production of all EF production lines, which is expected to affect the monthly ferronickel output by about 1,900 metal tons [7]. 3.5 Weekly Key Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: Data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and spreads of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures, as well as the prices and spreads of various nickel - related products such as imported nickel, ferronickel, and nickel ore are provided [9].

镍铁回升支撑价格， 社库去化节奏加快 不锈钢周报 2025/07/26 陈逸 （联系人） cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03137504 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 0755-23375125 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 供给端 06 成本端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 期现市场：据MYSTEEL，07月25日无锡不锈钢冷轧卷板均价报12900元/吨，环比+0.78%；山东7%-10%镍铁出厂价为910元/镍，环比+0.55%； 废不锈钢均价报9150元/吨，环比+1.67%。不锈钢主力合约周五下午收盘价13030元/吨，环比+2.40%。 供给：据MYSTEEL，07月国内冷轧不锈钢排产150.01万吨。06月粗钢产量为287.11万吨，环比-14.59万吨，1-06月累计同比8.11%。据 MYSTEEL样本统计，06月300系不锈钢粗钢产量预计达142.62万吨，环比-2.40%；07月300系冷轧产量70.61万吨，环比+1.07%。 需求：据WIND数据，国内2024年1- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of nickel have not improved, but due to the long - term decline in nickel prices and the recent shift in market macro - sentiment, a situation of weak reality and strong expectation has formed. It is expected that nickel prices will test the upper pressure in the near future [3]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel have not changed significantly. Similar to nickel, due to the long - term price decline and the shift in market macro - sentiment, it is expected that stainless steel prices will test the upper pressure in the near future [5]. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Market Performance**: On July 22, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2508 opened at 123,310 yuan/ton and closed at 123,530 yuan/ton, a change of 1.51% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 109,036 lots, and the open interest was 35,618 lots. The night - session opened with a gap - up and rose rapidly, then oscillated and declined after midnight. The day - session continued to oscillate and decline, and rebounded in the afternoon, closing with a long lower shadow yang line. The trading volume decreased slightly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased [1][2]. - **Macro News**: Germany plans to invest 631 billion euros by 2028 to boost the economy. Brazil and the US may start a "tariff war". The EU is preparing to counter - attack. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of stability - growth work plans for ten key industries including non - ferrous metals [2]. - **Spot Market**: Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation increased by about 700 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The prices of mainstream brands in the market also increased accordingly. The spot premium mostly remained stable, while the premiums of Huayou and Sumitomo resources decreased slightly. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand. Jinchuan nickel's premium was 0 - 2000 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium was 0 - 350 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,093 (- 18.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 208,092 ( + 216) tons [2]. - **Strategy**: For nickel, the strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Market - **Market Performance**: On July 22, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2509 opened at 12,870 yuan/ton and closed at 12,930 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 192,092 lots, and the open interest was 124,058 lots. The night - session opened with a rapid rise and then oscillated horizontally. The day - session oscillated and declined, and recovered the morning's decline in the afternoon, closing with a long lower shadow yang line. The trading volume decreased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased [3]. - **Supply and Demand News**: The 1.2 - trillion - yuan investment in Yajiang Hydropower is expected to drive stainless steel demand. In the Philippines, nickel ore resources will be sold in August, with a 1.3% FOB31 quotation, showing a month - on - month decline. In Indonesia, the tight supply of nickel ore has been alleviated due to the production cuts of local smelters. The domestic trade benchmark price in July (Phase II) decreased by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, with a basically flat month - on - month change. There was an obvious spread in the domestic trade premium, with transactions ranging from + 23 to + 28, but + 24 was still the mainstream premium. Some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines were converted to produce ferronickel, and some small smelters cut production. Some domestic smelters also shut down [3][4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot market's afternoon trading was significantly better than the morning's, and the spot price increased slightly. The stainless steel price in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 12,900 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 120 - 320 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 903.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy**: For stainless steel, the single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

Group 1: Market Overview - The high carbon ferrochrome market is currently stable with cautious optimism, despite the lack of substantial improvement in supply-demand dynamics [1][2] - Market sentiment has improved slightly, but a cautious mindset persists due to expectations of a low season affecting high carbon ferrochrome supply [2] - Current external quotations for high carbon ferrochrome are concentrated around 7700-7850 CNY per 50 base tons [2] Group 2: Market Transactions - Zhongtian Changzhou plans to procure 1100 tons of high carbon ferrochrome and 100 tons of medium carbon ferrochrome, with bidding starting on June 27 [2] - Central South Co. plans to tender for 450 tons of high carbon ferrochrome, with the bidding deadline set for June 30 [2] - The alloy price index for high carbon ferrochrome shows regional variations, with prices reported as follows: Hebei 7965 CNY, Shandong 8053 CNY (down 10), Liaoning 8193 CNY, Jiangsu 8249 CNY (down 30), Sichuan 8126 CNY (up 10), Hunan 8150 CNY (down 30) [2] Group 3: Chrome Ore Market - The latest transaction price for South African chrome concentrate (40-42%) at Tianjin Port is 265 USD per ton, unchanged from the previous round [4] - The chrome ore market is experiencing price adjustments, with various grades listed, such as South African lump ore (36%-38%) priced at 220-230 USD per ton and South African concentrate (42%-44%) at 280-290 USD per ton [5] - The overall market sentiment indicates a potential increase in the likelihood of short-term consolidation in the ferrochrome market due to the tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The intraday Shanghai nickel had a certain correction. Currently, there is still support from the ore price. Attention should be paid to whether the nickel ore benchmark price and premium will decline due to the market. In the short - term, only the nickel ore supports the bottom space. The ferronickel price is still falling but is close to the low - valuation range, with limited further decline space. The bottom support of stainless steel has stabilized. There is news that Tsingshan will cut stainless steel production by 250,000 tons, and spot - end transactions have improved. The new energy chain has a certain price - holding sentiment due to the disturbance of the Congo cobalt mine, and the downstream acceptance has also increased. It still maintains a production - based - on - sales situation. Future focus is on the production - cut intensity and whether the inventory improves [3] - On the positive side, there is still support from the nickel ore price at the cost end, the cobalt mine ban in Congo continues, and Tsingshan plans to cut stainless steel production by 250,000 tons. On the negative side, stainless steel enters the traditional off - season of demand with slow inventory reduction, the contradiction in the ferronickel industry chain deepens with the oversupply situation remaining unchanged, and the pure nickel inventory is high [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Nickel Forecast and Management Strategy - The price range forecast for Shanghai nickel is 115,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 15.17% and a current volatility historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - For inventory management, when the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory value reduction, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline, with a selling ratio of 60% using the Shanghai nickel main contract; also, sell call options with a selling ratio of 50% using over - the - counter/on - exchange options [2] - For procurement management, when the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs in advance on the disk, with a buying ratio based on the procurement plan using far - month Shanghai nickel contracts; sell put options with a selling ratio based on the procurement plan using on - exchange/over - the - counter options; buy out - of - the - money call options with a buying ratio based on the procurement plan using on - exchange/over - the - counter options [2] 3.2 Nickel and Stainless Steel Disk Daily Data - Nickel disk: The latest values of Shanghai nickel main continuous, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 are 118,600 yuan/ton, 118,670 yuan/ton, 118,830 yuan/ton, and 118,960 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 1%, 0.88%, 0.81%, and 0.81%. The LME nickel 3M is at 14,905 US dollars/ton, up 0.75%. The trading volume is 76,394 lots, down 20.49%; the open interest is 36,302 lots, down 30.20%; the warrant number is 21,359 tons, down 1.03%; the basis of the main contract is - 790 yuan/ton, up 7.5% [6] - Stainless steel disk: The latest values of stainless steel main continuous, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 are 12,540 yuan/ton, 12,540 yuan/ton, 12,470 yuan/ton, and 12,415 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 1%, 0.80%, 0.81%, and 0.85%. The trading volume is 175,419 lots, down 16.10%; the open interest is 159,994 lots, down 13.94%; the warrant number is 112,867 tons, down 0.32%; the basis of the main contract is 530 yuan/ton, down 8.62% [7] 3.3 Nickel Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 38,223 tons, down 1,160 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 204,360 tons, up 432 tons; the stainless steel social inventory is 1,000.6 tons, up 1.8 tons; the nickel pig iron inventory is 34,610 tons, up 3,148 tons [8]

Market Overview - On June 17, the main contract for stainless steel futures closed at 12,480 CNY/ton, down 70 CNY/ton, while the main contract for nickel closed at 118,570 CNY/ton, down 1,120 CNY/ton, indicating a slight decline in stainless steel futures prices and an increase in bearish market sentiment [2]. - Domestic stainless steel prices mainly decreased, with 304 grade down by 50 CNY/ton, 201 grade down by 50 CNY/ton, and 430 grade remaining stable [2]. Price Changes by Steel Mills - Taigang's 304/2B (2.0mm) is priced at 15,600 CNY, down 50 CNY; 304/No.1 (3.0-12mm) at 14,800 CNY; and 430/2B (2.0mm) at 9,800 CNY [2]. - Zhangpu's 304/2B (2.0mm) is priced at 13,600 CNY, while Dongfang Special Steel's 304/No.1 (4-8mm) is at 12,500 CNY and 316L/No.1 (4-8mm) at 23,550 CNY [2]. Market Performance - In Wuxi, the price for 304 grade decreased by 50 CNY/ton, 201 grade also down by 50 CNY/ton, while 430 grade remained stable [2]. - In Foshan, the price for 304 grade decreased by 50 CNY/ton, 201 grade down by 50 CNY/ton, and 430 grade stable [2]. Raw Material Prices - On June 17, the price for nickel plate in the Yangtze River region was 120,100 CNY/ton, down 900 CNY/ton; high-carbon ferrochrome (FeCr55C1000) in Sichuan was 8,050 CNY/50 base tons, unchanged; and molybdenum iron (FeMo60) in Henan was 246,000 CNY/ton, unchanged [4]. Futures Market Analysis - The stainless steel futures market showed a weak trend, with the K-line closing as a small bearish candle, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend. The next trading day for the 2508 contract is expected to range between 12,550 CNY and 12,400 CNY [6].