Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The report anticipates that the futures price of stainless steel will undergo a moderately strong adjustment, and investors are advised to pay attention to the upper range of 14,000 - 14,200 yuan/ton. On the raw material side, the approaching rainy season in the Philippines and the decline in nickel ore grade have tightened the raw material inventory of domestic ferronickel plants. With a significant reduction in the RKAB quota in Indonesia next year, ferronickel production will face pressure to cut output. On the supply side, although the production profit of stainless steel plants has improved and the traditional peak demand season has passed, the actual decrease in production is expected to be limited, and supply pressure persists. On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the decline in stainless steel exports is starting to show its impact. Market purchasing willingness is low, and overall inquiries and transactions are average. However, due to the limited supply of goods in the market, the national social inventory of stainless steel has maintained a seasonal slight decline. Technically, there has been an increase in trading volume and open interest along with a price increase, indicating a stronger bullish sentiment [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 13,885 yuan/ton, up 490 yuan; the spread between the 02 - 03 contracts is - 140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 16,506 lots, down 5,270 lots; the position of the main contract is 51,852 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 47,267 tons, down 120 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B cut - edge coils in Wuxi is 14,350 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan; the market price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of stainless steel is 75 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 22,100 metal tons, down 800 metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, up 2,900.84 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 895,400 tons, down 9,700 tons. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 150,150 yuan/ton, up 6,700 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 960 yuan/nickel point, up 30 yuan. - The monthly chromium - iron output in China is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7617 million tons, down 38,300 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 553,800 tons, down 8,700 tons. - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly value of new housing starts is 534.567 million square meters, up 43.9531 million square meters. - The monthly output of excavators is 33,600 units, up 2,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 22,600 units, up 700 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, unchanged [2]. Industry News - The People's Bank of China has clarified its key tasks for 2026, including increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments and flexibly using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. - The U.S. Supreme Court has set January 9, 2026 (Friday) as the opinion release day, which means the court may rule on the legality of President Trump's global tariff policy. - Federal Reserve officials have sent different signals regarding the future interest - rate path. Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized that the policy is in a "delicate balance" between dealing with inflation and rising unemployment, and interest rates have reached a neutral level. Fed Governor Milan said that the data supports further interest - rate cuts, with a potential reduction of over 100 basis points this year [2].

Market Overview - On November 24, the domestic market saw a decline in stainless steel prices, with 304 prices dropping by 100 yuan/ton and 316L prices decreasing by 450-500 yuan/ton, while 201 and 430 remained stable [4][6] - The overall trading atmosphere in the market is weak, with most merchants focusing on reducing inventory as the month-end approaches [4][8] Price Movements - The main contract for stainless steel futures closed at 12,335 yuan/ton, up by 45 yuan/ton, while the main nickel contract closed at 115,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,480 yuan/ton [3][8] - Specific price changes for major steel mills include: - Tai Steel 304/2B at 15,850 yuan/ton (unchanged) - Zhangpu 304/2B at 13,300 yuan/ton (up by 1 yuan) - Dongfang Special Steel 316L/No. 1 at 23,050 yuan/ton (down by 400 yuan) [6] Market Performance - In Wuxi, the price for 304/2B from Tai Steel is 13,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), while in Foshan, the price for the same material is 12,900 yuan/ton [6] - The trading prices for 201 and 430 remain stable across both markets [4][6] Futures Market - The night trading session on November 24 showed fluctuations around the average line, with a slight decline towards the end, indicating a short-term bearish trend [8] - The next trading day for the 2601 contract is expected to range between 12,400 and 12,250 yuan/ton [8] Nickel and Other Metals - The price for nickel plates in the Yangtze River region is 118,050 yuan/ton, up by 1,250 yuan/ton, while high-carbon ferrochrome in Sichuan remains stable at 8,300 yuan/50 base tons [9]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a mixed situation with production adjustments and inventory changes, influenced by both domestic and international factors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Production and Inventory - In November, stainless steel production was 3.3752 million tons, a decrease of 2.06% month-on-month but an increase of 1.71% year-on-year [1]. - As of October 2025, the inventory of steel products in key steel enterprises was 14.63 million tons, a decrease of 1.95 million tons (11.8%) from the previous period, but an increase of 2.26 million tons (18.3%) from the beginning of the year [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The shutdown of POSCO's stainless steel plant in South Korea may lead to supply chain tensions, although domestic stainless steel inventory has slightly increased and terminal demand remains weak [2]. - The raw material costs are expected to decrease due to the Indonesian government's policies affecting nickel resource supply costs, while the production profits for steel mills are recovering [3]. Group 3: Demand and Pricing - The demand from downstream sectors is not strong, leading to a general increase in stainless steel social inventory, with market purchasing intentions remaining low [3]. - Technical analysis indicates a downward trend in prices with increased divergence between long and short positions, suggesting a focus on support levels around 12,400 [3].