Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，价格重心下移，偏弱运行 [1][3] -铝锭预计价格短期偏强运行，关注宏观情绪 [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修时间多在1月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月十一至十六，停产预计影响总产量74.1万吨 [2][3] -安徽省6家短流程钢厂，1家1月5日停产，大部分1月中旬左右停产，个别1月20日后停产，停产日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [3] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积223.4万平方米，环比降40.3%，同比增43.2% [3] -成材昨日震荡下行，价格创新低，供需双弱，市场情绪悲观，冬储低迷，对价格支撑不强 [3] 铝锭 -昨日铝价冲高，近期中东局势紧张，铝产能受影响，短期拉升价格 [2] -国内氧化铝市场累库且幅度扩大，供应端开工率小幅回落，但广西新投项目投产，周度产量环比增长，供应压力显现 [3] -3月铝加工综合PMI为65.6%，反弹至荣枯线上方，行业整体景气度回升，各细分板块PMI跃升，呈现节后修复、旺季驱动特征 [3] -4月铝加工行业景气度预计由“全面修复”转向“结构分化”，综合PMI中枢向荣枯线回归 [3] -三月下半月，国内电解铝市场区域分化行情显著，华东、华南库存走势与现货价差背离加剧 [3] -周末局势紧张，铝价短期获走强动力，国内库存偏高，预计价格较外盘偏弱，市场交易情绪围绕油价，中东地缘是核心变量 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation, and the price of aluminum is expected to be strong in the short term, with attention paid to macro - sentiment [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to stop production from mid - January and resume production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui Province have different shutdown schedules, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. Winter storage is sluggish this year, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - The supply of domestic bauxite is relatively sufficient, and the price is stable. It is expected to have a certain downward space in the medium and long term. The weekly export volume of bauxite from Guinea's main ports reached 5.8082 million tons on March 6, an increase of 1.8888 million tons from the previous week. However, due to factors such as fluctuating freight and rising oil prices, the market is in a wait - and - see state [3] - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 2.4 percentage points to 61.9%, showing a post - holiday recovery. The aluminum cable sector is strong, with the operating rate increasing by 2 percentage points to 65%. The operating rate of aluminum foil leading enterprises is stable at 72.9%, but the export of air - conditioners is affected by the Middle East situation, restricting further improvement [3] - Although domestic social inventories are continuously accumulating, the Middle East geopolitical situation is the focus of global attention, increasing price volatility. In the short term, the Middle East situation is stalemate. With the continuous tightening of LME liquidity, overseas prices are strongly supported, while domestic prices have weak upward momentum due to high inventories and weak reality, resulting in a lower Shanghai - London ratio. It is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level [4]

Group 1 - Report's industry investment rating: Oscillatory operation [3] Group 2 - The report's core view: The finished products lack their own drivers and mainly fluctuate following the raw material end. The price is mainly consolidating. Driven by raw materials such as iron ore, the price center has shifted upward. After the domestic meeting, the output of some steel mills in the northern region may continue to rise. The current focus of steel is on the start - up of downstream demand [1][2] Group 3 - Automobile sales data: In February, China's automobile sales were 1.805 million, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%. New energy vehicle sales were 765,000, a year - on - year decrease of 14.2%. In February, automobile exports were 672,000, a year - on - year increase of 52.4% [2] - Project start - up data: In February 2026, 1,062 projects started across the country, with a total investment of about 514.583 billion yuan [2] - Home air - conditioner export situation: Since the continuous escalation of the Middle East conflict, the export production schedule of home air - conditioners has been significantly reduced compared with the previous plan. Overseas customers have cancelled or postponed orders due to freight increases or war surcharges by shipping companies. It is expected to be reduced by more than 500,000 units in March [2] - Later concerns: Macroeconomic policies; downstream demand [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and running weakly [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to run at a high level in the short term, with high - amplitude wide - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to macro - emotions [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises stopped production for maintenance from mid - to late January, and are expected to resume production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one stopped production on January 5th, most others will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20th, with a daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. Winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2] Aluminum Ingots - The total installed capacity of metallurgical alumina in China is 110.32 million tons/year, and the operating total capacity is 85.08 million tons/year. The overall start - up rate of the alumina industry remains stable, with slight regional differentiation [2] - Newly invested electrolytic aluminum projects in China, Indonesia, and Angola are still ramping up production, but due to the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the production or shipment of some aluminum plants has been affected, and the daily output is expected to decrease [2] - After the Spring Festival, as downstream enterprises resume work, demand recovers, the aluminum - water ratio has increased significantly, and the weekly aluminum - water ratio has increased by about 8 percentage points [2] - The demand side shows an accelerating recovery trend after the festival. The start - up rate of downstream industries has further increased. The demand in sectors such as power grids, canning materials, automobiles, and batteries has recovered well, and the photovoltaic rush - installation demand also provides short - term support [2] - The weekly start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 2.5 percentage points to 59.5%, but due to high aluminum prices and uneven demand recovery, the performance of different sectors varies significantly [2] - On Monday, the inventory increased by 15,000 tons compared with last Thursday. The demand is still in the recovery stage. The ingot - casting volume of electrolytic aluminum in March is expected to remain high, and the short - term inventory accumulation trend of domestic aluminum ingots will continue [2] - The current Middle East geopolitical situation is the focus of global attention. The geopolitical conflict situation is changeable, and price volatility has increased. The price has a slight adjustment at a high level in the short term due to sentiment. It is expected to have high - amplitude wide - range fluctuations [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation, while the price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - The production of short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region during the Spring Festival is expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 741,000 tons, and the daily output of 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui during the shutdown period is about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the support for prices is not strong [4] - The later focus is on macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Aluminum Ingots - Last week, the aluminum price continued to rise due to geopolitical risks. Trump said that the US is "seriously considering" expanding the scope of strikes, and the Mediterranean Shipping Company will levy an emergency fuel surcharge on relevant goods [3] - Newly invested electrolytic aluminum projects in China, Indonesia, and Angola are still ramping up production, but the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has affected the production or shipment of some aluminum plants, and the daily output is expected to decrease [4] - After the festival, as downstream enterprises resume work, demand has recovered, the proportion of molten aluminum has increased by about 8 percentage points week - on - week, and the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 2.5 percentage points to 59.5% [4] - The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots continued to accumulate. On Monday, the inventory increased by 15,000 tons compared with last Thursday. In March, the ingot casting volume of electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain high, and the short - term inventory accumulation trend will continue [4] - If the geopolitical conflict continues, the global electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to tighten, and the aluminum price has strong upward momentum. The short - term supply is blocked by macro - factors, and the aluminum price is expected to be strong. The follow - up evolution of macro - events should be concerned [4] - The later focus is on changes in macro - expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, the resumption of production at the mine end, and the release of consumption [5]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Oscillating operation" [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report believes that the steel market will operate in an oscillating manner, and later attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Group 3: Summary by Key Information - In March, the planned volume of northeast rebar moving south is only 150,000 tons, a year - on - year sharp decline, hitting the largest historical drop. Resource allocation has been comprehensively shrunk, only the North China market is retained, and Beijing accounts for over 75%. The volume of wire rod moving south has slightly increased to 320,000 tons, mainly sent to the East China region. The adjustment of steel mill production structure and the recovery of local demand are the main reasons, and the pattern of steel moving from the north to the south has turned [2] - This week, the supply of five major steel products is 7.9724 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 470 tons; the total inventory is 19.52 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.0589 million tons, with an increase rate of 5.7%; the weekly consumption is 6.335 million tons, among which the consumption of building materials has increased by 90.8% week - on - week, and the consumption of plates has increased by 0.3% week - on - week [2] - The steel price continued to oscillate yesterday. The market focus was on the energy and chemical sector, and the black sector was relatively calm. The steel price has been adjusted horizontally in a small range in the past few trading days, and the weekly fundamentals are normal. The turmoil in the Middle East has little impact on the domestic steel sector. Attention should be paid to the demand verification and whether there are major macro - policies during the Two Sessions that will affect the steel price [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry [1][2][3] Group 2: Core View - The steel price is expected to fluctuate and operate in the later period [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Industry Situation**: The construction industry has tight funds after the Spring Festival, and the resumption of work is progressing steadily. 11.54% of enterprises face poor fund availability, and 9.62% of enterprises report slow resumption progress. On March 2, Anshan launched a yellow (Level III) early warning for heavy pollution weather, and some steel enterprises in the area are implementing production reduction measures of up to 40% [2] - **Market Performance**: The finished steel fluctuated yesterday. The Middle East situation has limited impact on steel, and steel prices mainly follow their own fundamentals, especially the start - up of downstream demand. As the Two Sessions approach, the macro - level disturbances to prices have increased [2] - **Factors to Watch**: Macro policies and downstream demand conditions should be focused on in the later period [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - International geopolitical conflicts continue to cause disruptions, leading to a continuous increase in international oil prices, which in turn drives up the price of propane. This has raised the cost of propylene, and combined with the support from the supply - demand fundamentals, it has boosted the propylene futures price. On the supply side, there is a slight expected increase in propylene supply, but the actual return of major PDH plants under profit pressure needs attention. On the demand side, there is still rigid demand from downstream industries after the holiday, but the demand may be pressured due to high propylene prices. The future trend of propylene is mainly driven by the cost of crude oil and propane, the maintenance status of major PDH plants, and the downstream demand and production resumption under cost pressure [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main propylene contract is 6322 yuan/ton (-22), the spot price in East China is 6550 yuan/ton (+0), and in North China is 6525 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in East China is 228 yuan/ton (+22), and in Shandong is 203 yuan/ton (+22). The propylene operating rate is 73% (+0%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 222 US dollars/ton (+1), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 90 US dollars/ton (+8), the import profit is -345 yuan/ton (+38), and the in - plant inventory is 45170 tons (+1840) [1] - Downstream of propylene: The operating rate of PP powder is 22% (-3.94%), with a production profit of -270 yuan/ton (+5); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 80% (+8%), with a production profit of -2 yuan/ton (+140); the operating rate of n - butanol is 88% (+2%), with a production profit of 393 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of octanol is 99% (+4%), with a production profit of -70 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 86% (+2%), with a production profit of 300 yuan/ton (+100); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 75% (+3%), with a production profit of -1246 yuan/ton (+98); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 89% (+0%), with a production profit of -834 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply side: The Wanhua Penglai PDH plant has restarted and increased production, while the Juzhengyuan Phase II, Jinneng Phase II, and Zhongjing PDH plants are planned to continue maintenance. Some PDH plants in Shandong had short - term shutdowns during the holiday. There is a slight expected increase in propylene supply, but the actual return of major PDH plants under profit pressure needs attention [2] - Demand side: After the holiday, some downstream industries have gradually restocked. There is still rigid demand, but due to the high propylene price, the downstream cost is significantly pressured, and the demand may be affected after profit compression. For example, the purchase support from PP powder plants has declined, while the profit of butanol and octanol is good, and the restocking intention after the holiday may be strong [2] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None [3]

Group 1 - The price of polypropylene has slightly increased after the holiday, with the price in East China reaching 6,600 yuan per ton on February 26, marking a 0.53% increase compared to before the holiday [1] - Ongoing tensions between the US and Iran are preventing a quick resolution, leading to fluctuations in high oil prices, which continue to provide cost support to the market [1] - Due to sufficient pre-holiday sales by production companies, the pressure for inventory reduction post-holiday is manageable, while maintenance of new facilities such as Anhui Tianda and Zhongjing Petrochemical is providing additional market support [1] Group 2 - Some production companies have raised their factory prices, leading to a general upward trend in the market [1] - However, the recovery in downstream demand is slow, with inquiries and transactions remaining weak, which limits the potential for price increases [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, most energy and chemical products are expected to show a volatile trend. The prices of various products are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situations, and inventory changes [1][3][4]. - The US - Iran situation has a significant impact on the oil and fuel markets, and the market is closely watching the latest developments [1][3]. - The supply and demand of different energy and chemical products are in different states. For example, the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil has marginally improved, while the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil has decreased; the inventory of asphalt has increased, and the supply of PVC is slowly increasing [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI April contract closed down $0.21 to $65.42 per barrel, a decline of 0.32%. Brent April contract closed up $0.08 to $70.85 per barrel, a rise of 0.11%. SC2604 closed at 486.5 yuan per barrel, down 3.1 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.63%. The US crude oil inventory increased by 16 million barrels last week, reaching 435.8 million barrels, the highest level in eight and a half months. The overall oil price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.34% at 2,943 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 closed down 1.18% at 3,436 yuan per ton. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil has marginally improved, and the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil has decreased. The market is concerned about the impact of the US - Iran situation on the market [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2604 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.5% at 3,358 yuan per ton. The supply in the northern region is relatively low, and refineries are accumulating inventory. The overall inventory level has increased, and the market is concerned about the impact of the US - Iran situation on the raw material market [3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5,312 yuan per ton, down 0.75%; EG2605 closed at 3,747 yuan per ton, up 0.27%. The cost - end crude oil price is strong, and the export and terminal demand are warming up. PX and PTA are expected to fluctuate strongly under cost support, while ethylene glycol may fluctuate weakly due to high - inventory pressure, but the supply - demand pattern may improve in March [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2605 rose 210 yuan per ton to 17,240 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract rose 185 yuan per ton to 13,980 yuan per ton. Affected by the price increase in the external market and the decline in Thai export data, the natural rubber price has a strong upward drive. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the Taicang spot price was 2,232 yuan per ton. Affected by the gas restriction in Iran, the import volume is expected to decline from February to March. The demand in the Yangtze River Delta region is expected to recover after the Spring Festival. The port will enter the de - stocking stage, but the US - Iran situation will cause the methanol price to fluctuate greatly [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China wire - drawing PP was 6,600 - 6,700 yuan per ton. The post - festival demand recovery is slow, and there is pressure for further upward movement in the short term [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, the PVC market price in East China was stable, and the price in South China increased. The post - festival supply is slowly increasing, and the demand support is limited. It is expected to maintain a bottom - level fluctuation [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on February 26, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data shows that last week, the US crude oil inventory increased by 16 million barrels, far exceeding the expected increase of 1.5 million barrels, reaching the highest level in eight and a half months [10]. - Litasco, a trading subsidiary of Russia's Lukoil, said that Bulgaria's measures against it violated the Energy Charter Treaty and has submitted a dispute notice to Bulgaria [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides line charts of the closing prices of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, PP, PVC, methanol, rubber, synthetic rubber, European container shipping, and p - xylene [12][14][16][18][20][22][24]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report provides line charts of the basis of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [26][27][30][31]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides line charts of the spreads between different contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [34][36][40][42][44][46]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides line charts of the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy and chemical products, including crude oil internal - external spreads, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [49][51][53][55]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report provides line charts of the production profits of various energy and chemical products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA processing fees, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow [57][58]. 3.5 Research Team Introduction - The research team includes the deputy director of the research institute, the director of energy and chemical research, and analysts for different product categories, each with rich experience and professional qualifications [62][63][64][65].