聚烯烃日报 | 2025-08-26 成本支撑走强，聚烯烃小幅走高 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为332.5元/吨（+17.9），PP油制生产利润为-247.5元/吨（+17.9），PDH制PP生产利 润为88.2元/吨（+12.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-44.2元/吨（+23.4），PP进口利润为-556.9元/吨（+3.4），PP出口利润为36.6美元/吨（-0.4）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为14.5%（+0.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.9%（+0.8%），PP下游塑编开工 率为42.0%（+0.6%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.7%（-0.5%）。 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7423元/吨（+43），PP主力合约收盘价为7074元/吨（+36），LL华北现货为7270 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为7320元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6980元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-153元/吨（-43），LL 华东基差为-103元/吨（-43）， PP华东基差为-94元/吨（-36）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为78.7%（-5.5%），PP开 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a significant performance increase in H1 2025, achieving revenue of 19.178 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.75%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 972 million yuan, a decrease of 4.37% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 923 million yuan, an increase of 7.53% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.802 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.95% and a year-on-year increase of 21.48%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 581 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 48.65% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.41% [2][4]. - The profit structure for H1 2025 showed that tungsten-molybdenum, new energy materials, and rare earths accounted for 74.98%, 20.06%, and 7.38% of total profits, respectively. The growth in Q2 was primarily driven by contributions from tungsten-molybdenum and new energy sectors [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Tungsten-Molybdenum - The tungsten-molybdenum segment achieved a total profit of 1.268 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.94%. In Q2 2025, the profit totaled 739 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40% [9]. - The increase in tungsten prices significantly contributed to the performance, with the company having a production capacity of 12,000 tons of tungsten concentrate. The domestic tungsten concentrate price began to rise sharply in Q2 2025, enhancing performance elasticity [9]. - The deep processing sector showed strong profitability, with cutting tools achieving a gross margin of over 40%. The company adjusted product prices to enhance market penetration and explore new applications for tungsten wire products [9]. New Energy Materials - The new energy materials segment reported a total profit of 339 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.47%. In Q2 2025, the profit was 215 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 73% [9]. - The demand for lithium cobalt oxide was strong, driven by favorable policies and consumer electronics demand. The company sold 28,800 tons of lithium cobalt oxide in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 57% [9]. Rare Earth Magnetic Materials - The rare earth magnetic materials segment achieved a total profit of 125 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.71%. In Q2 2025, the profit was 59 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11% [9]. - The company expanded its production capacity in the rare earth sector, with new projects expected to contribute to performance in the coming years [9].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2) Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a range-bound manner with a downward shift in the price center and weak performance, and the focus should be on macro policies and downstream demand [2][4]. - The aluminum ingot market is in a off - season with a slight accumulation of inventory. The price is expected to be in a short - term range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mining - end news [2][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a production impact of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills will also shut down, affecting daily production by about 16,200 tons [3][4]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - The price of finished products continued to decline, reaching a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the weak supply - demand situation, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [4]. Aluminum and Related Products - On August 10, the Shanxi Natural Resources Department adjusted the registration authority for some mineral transfers, which boosted the alumina futures. However, alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure [4]. - The impact on domestic bauxite supply from non - resumption of domestic mines is currently minimal, and the development of the news should be continuously monitored [4]. - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. The aluminum cable operating rate remained stable at 61.8%, and it is expected to rise slightly in mid - August [4]. - In July, the total output of aluminum rods was 360,500 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from June. The operating rate was 53.2%, a 6.89% month - on - month and 6.7% year - on - year decrease. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in August [4]. - On August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 588,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 24,000 tons from last Thursday [4].

负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 8 月 8 日 晨报 成材 成材：情绪趋缓 整理运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 观点：仍有调整，观望为主。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；供给侧减产情况；下游需求情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 1 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2: Core View - The steel price is still expected to adjust, and it is advisable to wait and see [3] Group 3: Summary by Content - **Cost and Profit**: This week, the average tax - free hot metal cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2,118 yuan/ton, and the average tax - included billet cost was 2,868 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton week - on - week. Compared with the ex - factory price of common billets on August 6th (3,090 yuan/ton), the average profit of steel mills was 222 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton week - on - week [2] - **Fund Availability**: As of August 5th, the fund availability rate of sample construction sites was 58.5%, down 0.2 percentage points week - on - week. The fund availability rate of housing construction projects was 51.14%, remaining flat week - on - week [2] - **Market Situation**: Driven by the rise in coking coal prices, the finished products rose slightly during the day yesterday with a slight intraday increase. Currently, the overall steel market still has stronger supply than demand. Supply - side indicators such as daily hot metal output, blast furnace operating rate, and steel mill profitability are relatively high, while downstream demand is average, affected by monthly real - estate data and the rainy - season impact on construction sites. On the other hand, macro - level policies still drive up prices [2] - **Later Concerns**: Macro policies, supply - side production reduction situation, and downstream demand situation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View -成材价格震荡整理运行，后期关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] -铝价预计短期区间调整，需关注宏观情绪和下游开工 [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.成材 - 云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，安徽省短流程钢厂停产期间日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [4] - 2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比下降40.3%，同比增长43.2% [4] - 成材昨日震荡下行，价格创新低，在供需双弱格局下市场情绪悲观，价格重心下移，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] 3.2.铝锭 - 宏观上市场关注美联储人事变动，可能使其转向更鸽派，昨日铝价区间震荡 [3] - 几内亚港口发运被叫停带动氧化铝期货价格小幅上行，8月氧化铝运行产能预计环比增加，铝土矿需求增长 [4] - 6月底至7月几内亚铝土矿发运量降低，预计8月中国自几内亚进口铝土矿总量下滑，国产铝土矿供应增量有限 [4] - 8月开始中国铝土矿库存累库幅度预计放缓，8 - 9月库存总量预计出现拐点 [4] - 7月国内电解铝产量同比增长1.05%，环比增长3.11%，8月4日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存56.4万吨，较上周四增长2.0万吨，较上周一上涨3.1万吨 [4] - 当前淡季库存累库，需求端压力限制上行空间，警惕宏观风险计价加码，关注国内政策推进 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The steel price is expected to undergo adjustments, and it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach [4] Summary According to Related Content Cost and Profit - On August 5, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3312 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4 yuan/ton, the average profit was - 31 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was 70 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 7 yuan/ton [3] Real Estate Transaction Data - From July 28 to August 3, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.467 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 3.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%; the total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing was 1.9959 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [3] Market Situation - Benefiting from the limit - up of coking coal on the raw material side, the finished products continued to rebound yesterday. The market continues to waver between macro anti - involution and industry fundamentals, and steel prices fluctuate repeatedly in the short term [3] Fundamental Situation - Currently, the overall supply of steel is stronger than demand. On the supply side, the daily average pig iron output, blast furnace operating rate, and steel mill profitability are all relatively high, but downstream demand is mediocre, affected by monthly real estate data and the actual impact of the rainy season on construction sites [3] Later Concerns - Macro policies, supply - side production cuts, and downstream demand [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to run in a range-bound and consolidating manner, and attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [4] - The aluminum price is expected to adjust in a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of production [3] - 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui: 1 stopped production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons [4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [4] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the weak supply - demand pattern, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish [4] Aluminum - On the supply side, the port shipment in Guinea was suspended, driving up the alumina futures price slightly. In August, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to increase, and the demand for bauxite will grow [4] - From late June to July, the bauxite shipment volume from Guinea decreased. From August, the total import volume of bauxite from Guinea to China is expected to decline, and the domestic supply increment is limited [4] - From August, the inventory accumulation rate of Chinese bauxite is expected to slow down, and the inventory is expected to peak from August to September [4] - In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.05% YoY and 3.11% MoM. The operating capacity increased slightly due to the start - up of the second - phase replacement project in Shandong - Yunnan [4] - On August 4, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 564,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from last Thursday and 31,000 tons from last Monday [4] - Currently, the inventory is accumulating in the off - season, and the demand pressure limits the upside space. Short - term aluminum prices are expected to be range - bound [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the aluminum price is expected to adjust within a short - term range [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output during the Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices. The view is that it will run in a volatile and consolidating manner [4] Aluminum Ingots - In July 2025, the average fully - taxed cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,261 yuan/ton, a 1.7% decrease from the previous period and a 5.8% decrease year - on - year. In August, alumina's support for costs will be evident [4] - In August, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to increase month - on - month, and the demand for bauxite will grow. The supply of bauxite from Guinea is expected to decline starting in August, and the inventory accumulation rate of bauxite in China is expected to slow down, with the inventory likely to reach an inflection point from August to September [4] - In July, China's electrolytic aluminum output increased by 1.05% year - on - year and 3.11% month - on - month. On August 4, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 564,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from last Thursday and 31,000 tons from last Monday [4] - Currently in the off - season, inventory is accumulating, and the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upside space. The short - term aluminum price is expected to move within a range, and subsequent attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price is expected to continue adjusting, and it is recommended to wait and see. [4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Policy Information - On August 1st, the list of "two major" construction projects worth 800 billion yuan for this year has been fully issued, and the central budget - internal investment of 735 billion yuan has been basically issued. [3] Production Capacity Utilization - Last week, the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.24%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.37 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4071 million tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons from the previous week and an increase of 40,900 tons year - on - year. [3] - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 57.05%, an increase of 1.56 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 15.11 percentage points year - on - year. The average operating rate was 74.21%, an increase of 2.18 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 12.75 percentage points year - on - year. [3] Market Performance and Influencing Factors - The price of finished steel rose first and then fell last week with large fluctuations. In terms of weekly fundamentals, the supply and demand of rebar both decreased and inventory increased, while the supply, demand, and inventory of hot - rolled steel all increased. The fundamentals are slightly bearish, but market sentiment has a greater impact on the market. [3] - The Politburo meeting last week was relatively calm, with no unexpected statements on anti - involution and real estate, which put pressure on the previously excited market. Recent market trends are greatly affected by macro factors and sentiment, with large price fluctuations. [3] Later Concerns - Macro policies, supply - side production reduction, and downstream demand conditions should be focused on. [4]