1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure is expected to decrease as refineries have reduced production recently. The current demand is below the historical average level, and the overall demand is affected by the off - season and fails to meet expectations. The cost is expected to strengthen in the short - term due to the rising crude oil prices, and the asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Specifically, the asphalt 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3008 - 3056 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: In November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 30.8006%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises was 213,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.02%. The output of sample enterprises was 514,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 836,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.21%. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average level, and the asphalt processing loss has increased [8]. - **Basis**: On November 18, the spot price in Shandong was 3030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 2 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.02%. The in - plant inventory was 647,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%. The inventory of diluted asphalt at ports was 350,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.75%. Social inventory continued to decline, while in - plant and port inventories continued to increase [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main players was short, and the short positions decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: Due to the reduction in refinery production, the supply pressure has decreased. The demand is affected by the off - season and fails to meet expectations. With the rising crude oil prices, the cost support is expected to strengthen in the short - term, and the asphalt 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3008 - 3056 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, basis, inventory, production, and other data of different asphalt contracts on the previous day, including the 01 - 12 contracts, as well as data on weekly inventory, production, and开工率. For example, the 01 contract price was 3032 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the social inventory was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.03% [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which helps investors understand the relationship between the spot and futures prices of asphalt in different regions [18][20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the price differences between different contract periods [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report displays the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025, which helps investors understand the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It presents the historical crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the refining profit margins [29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt against SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025, which can assist in analyzing the relative price relationships among different energy products [34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which helps investors understand the price changes of asphalt in the Shandong region [36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical spread trend between coking and asphalt profits from 2020 to 2025, which helps in understanding the profit differences between different asphalt - related products [42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report presents the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report presents the historical price trend of Maya crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical asphalt production of local refineries from 2019 to 2025 [57]. - **开工率**: The report presents the historical weekly 开工率 of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [60]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [62]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It presents the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [67]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report shows the historical social inventory (70 sample enterprises) and factory inventory (54 sample enterprises) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [69]. - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It presents the historical inventory ratio of factory inventory from 2018 to 2025 [72]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical spread trend of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025 [75][78]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It presents the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [81]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption volume of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [84]. - **Downstream Demand**: It includes the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year growth rate, asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [86][90][93]. - **Asphalt 开工率**: It shows the historical 开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt, asphalt by use, and downstream 开工率 (such as shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt) from 2019 - 2025 [96][99][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to November 2025, including monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream demand [106].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 18 日 LLDPE：农需或趋见顶，关注供应压力 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2601 | 6843 | -0.15% | 272216 | 1540 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 01合约基差 | -23 | | -23 | | | | 01-05合约价差 | -59 | | -62 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6820 | | 6830 | | | | 华东 | 6950 | | 6950 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The price of copper rebounded slightly yesterday. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices. The main contract is expected to trade between 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton, and future attention should be paid to demand - side marginal changes and overseas liquidity [1]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc futures oscillated at a high level yesterday. The supply - side pressure may be limited in the future, and the demand side has no outstanding performance. The LME zinc has upward pressure, while the export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices. The main contract is expected to trade between 22,300 - 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon stabilized, while the futures price oscillated downward. In November, the market still faces inventory accumulation pressure, but it is less than that in October. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon stabilized, the component quotation increased, but the silicon wafer price dropped significantly, and the futures price oscillated downward. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the spot support strength, platform company establishment, production control, and demand - side order increase [5]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand shows no obvious improvement. The market sentiment has improved, and long positions should be held. If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to continue to run strongly [7]. Alumina - The alumina futures oscillated at a low level yesterday. The supply pressure is high, and the cost support is gradually shifting down. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [9]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The electrolytic aluminum futures continued to oscillate at a high level yesterday. The market shows a pattern of strong macro - drive and weak fundamental support. The price is expected to fluctuate between 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to LME warehouse receipt flow, domestic inventory changes, and overseas macro - trends [9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel futures oscillated narrowly yesterday. The market is mixed with long and short factors. The price is expected to oscillate in a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel futures continued to weaken yesterday. The policy and macro - drive are gradually weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations and steel mill supply [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures ran strongly yesterday. The short - term fundamentals provide support for the price, but the upward movement of the futures is mainly driven by funds. The futures may oscillate and adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to the end - of - year resumption of large factories and downstream marginal changes [14]. Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy market oscillated strongly yesterday. Supported by cost and with a tight supply - demand balance, the ADC12 price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract reference range of 20,400 - 21,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement, and inventory reduction [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 86,765 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The spot - futures basis and other price - related indicators showed different changes [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,660 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from the previous day. The import profit and loss, month - to - month spread, etc. also changed [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 52.38% [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re - feeding material remained at 52,200 yuan/kg, and the main futures contract dropped 3.33% to 51,930 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price was 287,700 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 11.10% [7]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price was 21,620 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous day. The import profit and loss and month - to - month spread changed accordingly [9]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,300 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 2.68% [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12,750 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The spot - futures spread increased by 24.66% [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 82,300 yuan/ton, up 1.92% from the previous day. The basis decreased by 858.62% [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 21,500 yuan/ton, up 0.23% from the previous day. The month - to - month spread and other indicators changed [16]. Fundamental Data Production and Import/Export - **Copper**: In October, the electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. In September, the import volume was 33.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [1]. - **Zinc**: In October, the refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. In September, the import volume was 2.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In October, the national industrial silicon production was 45.22 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The export volume in October was 7.02 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.36% [4]. - **Polysilicon**: In October, the polysilicon production was 13.40 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%. In September, the import volume was 0.13 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.46% [5]. - **Tin**: In September, the tin ore import was 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. In October, the SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09% [7]. - **Aluminum**: In October, the alumina production was 778.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [9]. - **Nickel**: In October, the Chinese refined nickel production was 35,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. The import volume was 38,164 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124.36% [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 manufacturers) was 182.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. The import volume was 12.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.70% [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, the lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%. The import volume in September was 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.30% [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 64.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06% [16]. Operating Rates - **Copper**: The electrolytic copper rod operating rate was 61.97%, up 1.54 percentage points from the previous week [1]. - **Zinc**: The galvanizing operating rate was 55.13%, down 2.41 percentage points from the previous week [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The national operating rate was 68.12%, up 6.18 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - **Tin**: The SMM refined tin average operating rate in September was 43.60%, down 20.3 percentage points from the previous month [7]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum profile operating rate was 52.60%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous week [9]. - **Nickel**: There is no significant information about the operating rate in the nickel report. - **Stainless Steel**: There is no significant information about the operating rate in the stainless - steel report. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, the lithium carbonate operating rate was 56%, up 1.82 percentage points from the previous month [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The recycled aluminum alloy operating rate was 55.84%, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous week [16]. Inventory - **Copper**: The domestic social inventory was 19.59 million tons, down 2.10% from the previous week; the SHFE inventory was 11.50 million tons, down 0.95% from the previous week [1]. - **Zinc**: The seven - region social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots was 15.96 million tons, down 1.30% from the previous week; the LME inventory remained unchanged at 3.5 million tons [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The Xinjiang inventory was 11.21 million tons, up 3.70% from the previous week; the social inventory was 55.20 million tons, down 1.08% from the previous week [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon inventory was 25.90 million tons, down 0.77% from the previous week; the silicon wafer inventory was 17.52 million tons, down 7.45% from the previous week [5]. - **Tin**: The SHEF inventory was 5,992 tons, up 1.23% from the previous week; the social inventory was 7,033 tons, up 5.22% from the previous week [7]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged at 62.70 million tons; the LME inventory was 54.5 million tons, down 0.37% from the previous day [9]. - **Nickel**: The SHFE inventory was 37,187 tons, up 1.19% from the previous week; the social inventory was 49,133 tons, up 2.14% from the previous week [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 48.89 million tons, down 0.65% from the previous week; the SHFE warehouse receipt was 7.17 million tons, down 0.41% from the previous day [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 84,234 tons, down 10.90% from the previous month; the downstream inventory was 53,291 tons, down 13.50% from the previous month [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 5.58 million tons, up 1.82% from the previous week [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend analyses and viewpoints on various energy - chemical futures on November 12, 2025. Different futures have different trends, including high - level oscillations, weakening trends, and short - term support. For example, PX is relatively strong in the short - term due to overseas blending oil demand; MEG has a weakening price trend due to supply pressure; and rubber is in an oscillating state [11][13]. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Dynamics**: On November 11, PX prices fell, and the weakness in the PX spot market became more obvious. The floating spread of PX turned from a premium to a discount. MEG had a high planned arrival volume at major ports from November 10 - 16, and a large - scale MEG device was restarting. Polyester sales were weak on November 11 [6][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: PX and PTA have a trend intensity of 0, while MEG has a trend intensity of - 1 [11]. - **Views and Suggestions**: PX is relatively strong in the short - term due to overseas blending oil demand supporting the aromatics valuation. PTA is in a high - level oscillating state, and it is advisable to short the processing fee at high levels. MEG has a weakening price trend, and it is advisable to short the spread at high levels [11]. Rubber - **Fundamental Tracking**: The rubber futures market had small price fluctuations, and the spot market prices of some varieties changed slightly. The domestic production area is entering the reduction period, and the Qingdao inventory is in the seasonal accumulation period [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rubber is 0 [13]. - **Industry News**: The prices of raw materials in Thailand and domestic production areas are stable, and the domestic raw material prices are firm, but the inventory pressure suppresses the rubber price [14][15]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures prices of synthetic rubber decreased slightly, and the spot prices of some varieties increased slightly. The inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber decreased, and the raw material butadiene price was stable [16][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0 [18]. - **Industry News**: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber decreased, and the spot transaction improved, forming a short - term oscillating support pattern. In the medium - term, butadiene is in a weak state, driving the dynamic downward movement of cis - butadiene rubber [19]. Asphalt - **Fundamental Tracking**: The asphalt futures prices increased slightly, and the spot prices in some areas decreased slightly. The domestic asphalt production decreased slightly this week, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased [20][35]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of asphalt is 1 [28]. - **Market News**: The domestic asphalt production decreased slightly this week, the factory inventory in Shandong increased significantly, and the social inventory in Shandong decreased significantly [35]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Tracking**: The LLDPE futures price decreased, and the spot prices in some areas decreased slightly. The raw material oil price oscillated, and the monomer profit was compressed [36][37]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0 [38]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The raw material oil price oscillated, the monomer profit was compressed, and the downstream demand had rigid support, but the mid - and downstream inventory - holding willingness weakened after the price decline last week [37]. PP - **Fundamental Tracking**: The PP futures price decreased, and the spot market was slightly weak. The trade war, oil price, high supply, and low downstream profits jointly pressured the PP price [40][41]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of PP is - 1 [42]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: Multiple factors jointly pressured the PP price, and the weak demand and high supply will continue to suppress the price in the long - term [41]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Tracking**: The caustic soda futures price and the spot price in Shandong decreased. The high - production and high - inventory pattern of caustic soda continued, and the market continued to short the chlor - alkali profit [44][45][46]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0 [47]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The high - production and high - inventory pattern of caustic soda continued, and the demand and cost factors limited the rebound space of caustic soda [46]. Pulp - **Fundamental Tracking**: The pulp futures price oscillated, and the spot price increased slightly. The futures market was driven by funds and arbitrage behavior, and the actual demand did not increase significantly [51][52]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of pulp is 0 [51]. - **Industry News**: The pulp futures market was high - level oscillating, and the spot price increased, but the actual demand did not increase significantly. The supply pressure remained, and the downstream demand was weak [52][53]. Glass - **Fundamental Tracking**: The glass futures price decreased, and the spot price was stable. The domestic float glass market price was weakly sorted, and the downstream procurement was based on low - price selection [54]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of glass is 0 [54]. - **Spot News**: The domestic float glass market price was weakly sorted, and the downstream procurement was cautious [54]. Methanol - **Fundamental Tracking**: The methanol futures price decreased, and the spot price in some areas increased. The methanol market was regionally adjusted, and the supply was high while the demand was under pressure [56][58]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of methanol is - 1 [59]. - **Spot News**: The methanol spot price index increased slightly, and the market was regionally adjusted. The supply was high, and the demand was under pressure [58]. Urea - **Fundamental Tracking**: The urea futures price decreased, and the spot price was stable. The urea enterprise inventory increased slightly, and the production and sales were in a weak balance [60][61]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of urea is 0 [62]. - **Industry News**: The urea enterprise inventory increased slightly, and the short - term urea is expected to oscillate. The domestic fundamental pressure is large, but the downward driving force is weakened by policies [61][62]. Styrene - **Fundamental Tracking**: The styrene futures price decreased, and the profit margin improved slightly. The contradiction in the styrene market is not significant, and the pure benzene is in a weak pattern [63][64]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of styrene is 0 [63]. - **Spot News**: The contradiction in the styrene market is not significant, and the pure benzene is in a weak pattern. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [64]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Tracking**: The soda ash futures price increased slightly, and the spot price was stable. The comprehensive supply of soda ash decreased slightly, and the downstream demand was general [66]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soda ash is 0 [67]. - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market oscillated, and it is expected to be stable and oscillating in the short - term [66]. LPG, Propylene - **Fundamental Tracking**: The LPG and propylene futures prices had small fluctuations, and the spot prices of some varieties changed slightly. The PDH and MTBE operating rates increased [71]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of LPG and propylene are 0 [75]. - **Market News**: The CP paper prices of propane and butane changed slightly, and there are many PDH and LPG device maintenance plans [76][77]. PVC - **Fundamental Tracking**: The PVC futures price decreased, and the spot price continued to decline. The PVC market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the export may slow down [79]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of PVC is - 1 [80]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The PVC market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the export may slow down. The trend still has pressure [79]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The fuel oil futures price decreased, and the low - sulfur fuel oil futures price increased slightly at night. The high - and low - sulfur spread of the outer - market spot rebounded slightly [82]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are 1 [82]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions changed slightly [82]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Tracking**: The container shipping index (European line) futures prices had different trends, and the freight rates of different routes changed. The SCFIS of the European and US - West routes increased, while the SCFI decreased [84]. - **Trend Intensity**: No trend intensity is provided for the container shipping index (European line). - **Freight Index**: The freight rates of different routes changed, and the future shipping schedules may be dynamically adjusted [84][87].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a mixed situation with production adjustments and inventory changes, influenced by both domestic and international factors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Production and Inventory - In November, stainless steel production was 3.3752 million tons, a decrease of 2.06% month-on-month but an increase of 1.71% year-on-year [1]. - As of October 2025, the inventory of steel products in key steel enterprises was 14.63 million tons, a decrease of 1.95 million tons (11.8%) from the previous period, but an increase of 2.26 million tons (18.3%) from the beginning of the year [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The shutdown of POSCO's stainless steel plant in South Korea may lead to supply chain tensions, although domestic stainless steel inventory has slightly increased and terminal demand remains weak [2]. - The raw material costs are expected to decrease due to the Indonesian government's policies affecting nickel resource supply costs, while the production profits for steel mills are recovering [3]. Group 3: Demand and Pricing - The demand from downstream sectors is not strong, leading to a general increase in stainless steel social inventory, with market purchasing intentions remaining low [3]. - Technical analysis indicates a downward trend in prices with increased divergence between long and short positions, suggesting a focus on support levels around 12,400 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry is expected to continue its oscillatory consolidation. Crude oil should be treated with an oscillatory mindset. PX is in a strong position, and the short - term price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish. PTA's supply - demand pattern shows an improvement expectation, and the price is expected to be supported [3][14]. - Most products in the energy and chemical sector are expected to oscillate, with some showing a slightly bullish or bearish tendency in the short - term, depending on factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - On November 6, 2025, the Chinese A - share market rose, and the commodity market sentiment generally improved. PX and PTA in the energy and chemical sector performed well, with PX rising more than PTA, and TA's processing fee per ton dropping to 120 yuan/ton. The rise of aromatics is related to the high cracking spread of global gasoline, and there has been arbitrage from Asian blending products to the Americas recently. The downstream demand for polyester remains healthy, and the loom operating rate has increased week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Product - by - Product Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure persists, geopolitical risks remain, and the price is expected to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: Saudi Arabia has lowered the official selling price for Asia, corresponding to the downward shift of the Middle - East oil premium center in the past month. Russian refineries have been attacked, and the US refined oil inventory has decreased smoothly since October. The overseas gasoline and diesel markets remain strong, and the reduction of refined oil inventory pressure and the strong cracking spread support the crude oil demand. However, the continuous inventory build - up in reality is difficult to change, so the price oscillates [9]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price may test the 3200 yuan/ton resistance level again. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production in December, the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, and the situation between the US and Venezuela is under control. The asphalt futures price has fallen below the important support level of 3200 yuan/ton, which may turn into a resistance level. The asphalt - fuel oil spread has fallen below 400 yuan/ton, the production schedule in November has decreased significantly, but the demand has entered the off - season. The supply shortage problem has been resolved, and the driving force for the high premium of asphalt has weakened. The pricing weight of asphalt futures has returned to Shandong, and the inventory build - up pressure is still large [11]. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The fuel oil is expected to oscillate weakly. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production in December, the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, but the premium on Russian products in Europe and the US still exists. The fuel oil supply in the Asia - Pacific region in November is expected to decrease due to the decline in Russian exports. However, the refinery processing demand is weak, and the fuel oil demand is still weak as it has entered the off - season [11]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The refined oil market is strong, and low - sulfur fuel oil may run strongly. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weak oscillation of crude oil, and the 3500 yuan/ton resistance level is effective in the short - term. The main product attribute of low - sulfur fuel oil is strong, and the decline in Russian refined oil exports has driven the rebound of the gasoline and diesel cracking spread, supporting low - sulfur fuel oil. However, it faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil is low, and it is expected to follow the movement of crude oil [13]. 3.2.5 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The 2100 yuan/ton integer level provides some support, and methanol is expected to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: The methanol futures price oscillated on November 6. The domestic methanol factory operating rate remains high, resulting in sufficient supply. The port inventory is relatively high, which still suppresses the price in the short - term. However, considering the possible disturbances in Iran in winter, methanol still has long - buying value and should be treated with an oscillatory view in the short - term [28]. 3.2.6 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The export information has been confirmed, and urea is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. - **Main Logic**: On November 6, the supply - demand pattern of urea remained loose. Although the supply has returned to a high level after the end of plant maintenance, the demand is weak due to the end of winter wheat sowing. The high inventory pressure still exists, but the coal cost provides strong support. Combined with the speculation about export information in the market, urea is expected to oscillate strongly [28]. 3.2.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the rebound height is limited under the fermentation of market sentiment. - **Main Logic**: The polyester chain products have strengthened, but EG's own supply - demand is weak, and the port inventory has continued to increase this week. The overall price elasticity of EG will be significantly suppressed in the medium - term. Although the factory operating rate of EG has decreased this week, providing some support to the price, the long - term inventory build - up pressure is large, and the rebound height is limited [20][21]. 3.2.8 PX - **Viewpoint**: PX is leading the polyester chain strongly, and the short - term market sentiment is enthusiastic. - **Main Logic**: The cost change is limited. There are rumors of production cuts and PX factory maintenance in the market, driving PX and PTA prices up. PX has been in a strong position in 2025, with continuous inventory reduction and tight spot liquidity. The supply of PX is expected to be tight in the first half of next year, and the positive growth of downstream demand supports PX demand to some extent [14]. 3.2.9 PTA - **Viewpoint**: After the meeting, PTA plants have stopped production in batches, and the market sentiment continues to ferment. - **Main Logic**: Affected by market news, the PTA futures price has strengthened significantly. Although it is difficult for enterprises to reach a coordinated production - cut agreement, there are many planned plant disturbances in November. The supply - demand pattern of PTA is expected to improve, and the downward compression space of the PTA processing spread is limited, but the upward space depends on whether there is more than expected production cut [14]. 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Caught between rising costs and falling demand expectations, the processing fee is passively compressed. - **Main Logic**: The price of upstream raw materials has risen due to capital speculation, and short - fiber has followed the cost increase but with a smaller increase, resulting in a passive compression of the processing fee. Although the downstream procurement has increased in the afternoon under the influence of market sentiment, the overall sales this week have been weak, and short - fiber has continued to accumulate inventory [22][23]. 3.2.11 Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: It follows the rise of raw materials passively. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures have risen, driving some polyester bottle - chip factories to raise their prices. The market trading atmosphere is okay, and the processing fee is within a stable range [24][25]. 3.2.12 Polypropylene (PP) - **Viewpoint**: As the price drops, the trading volume increases, and PP is expected to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: The downstream trading volume has increased as the price drops. The price of crude oil oscillates, and OPEC+ has shown a cautious attitude towards increasing production. PP's own fundamental support is limited. As the peak season fades, the upstream and mid - stream still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, and the production pressure is large due to the decrease in maintenance and the increase in production capacity [31][32]. 3.2.13 Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: The downstream trading volume has increased, and LLDPE is expected to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: The LLDPE futures price oscillates. The price of crude oil oscillates, and OPEC+ has shown a cautious attitude towards increasing production. LLDPE's own fundamental support is limited. As the peak season fades, the upstream and mid - stream still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, and the production pressure is large due to the decrease in maintenance and the increase in production capacity [30]. 3.2.14 PVC - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and PVC is expected to oscillate weakly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the macro - disturbances in November have subsided. At the micro - level, the PVC fundamentals are under pressure, with stable costs. The upstream maintenance has ended in early November, and PVC production will increase. The downstream operating rate has recovered, but only the low - price procurement volume has increased. The PVC export order signing has weakened this week, and the anti - dumping measure suppresses the export expectation [34]. 3.2.15 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak expectations, caustic soda is expected to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the macro - disturbances in November have subsided. At the micro - level, the fundamentals of caustic soda have improved this week, but the driving force for continuous improvement is limited. The alumina production capacity has decreased, the demand for caustic soda from Weiqiao is still high, the new alumina project in Guangxi in the first quarter of 2026 will boost the demand for caustic soda, the non - aluminum operating rate is stable, and the replenishment intention is not high. The maintenance of caustic soda plants will end in early November, and the production will increase month - on - month [35]. 3.3 Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. have changed to different extents. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX has increased by 22 yuan/ton [37]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different products also show different changes. For example, the basis of asphalt has increased by 17 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt is 7690 [38]. - **Inter - product Spreads**: The spreads between different products, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., have also changed. For example, the 1 - month TA - EG spread has increased by 78 yuan/ton [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the varieties in the energy and chemical industry are rated as "oscillating", including PX, PTA, short - fiber, methanol, urea, LLDPE, PP, PL, PVC, and caustic soda. Some are rated as "oscillating weakly", such as crude oil, pure benzene, and styrene. Others are rated as "oscillating downward", like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil [9][17][18] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical support for crude oil shows signs of weakening. If there is no further reduction in supply, oil prices will return to a weak supply - demand situation. The chemical sector is waiting for more guidance. The bullish power of styrene is gradually brewing, but it still faces pressure from high inventory and new installations. The strong pattern of PTA may change after the meeting of the Price Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Overall, the energy and chemical industry is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term, waiting for the geopolitical situation to calm down [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist. - **Main Logic**: Concerns about Russian oil supply have eased, and the spot market for Middle Eastern crude oil has weakened. The marginal geopolitical risk has decreased. The API data shows a decline in US crude oil inventories last week, but the overseas supply pressure still persists. If geopolitical concerns continue to ease, oil prices will return to a weak state [9] Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil prices fall, asphalt may be pressured to decline. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export premium to Asia, and the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended. After the sharp rise in oil prices, the market is evaluating the situation, and oil prices have fallen, which may put pressure on asphalt futures prices. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is expected to continue to decline, and the over - valuation premium of asphalt is starting to fall [9][10] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil prices fall, fuel oil may be pressured to decline. - **Main Logic**: After the rise in oil prices, the market is evaluating the situation, and oil prices have fallen, driving fuel oil prices down. Although the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and the demand for fuel oil is still weak [10] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates and rises following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. It is affected by factors such as sanctions on Russia, and its fundamentals face challenges such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by green energy [12] Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Overseas disturbances will increase after November, and methanol is viewed with oscillation. - **Main Logic**: On October 28, the methanol futures price oscillated and declined. The high port inventory still has a suppressing effect in the short term, but considering the high probability of Iranian disturbances approaching winter, methanol still has value for low - buying [29] Urea - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has ebbed, and it is viewed with continuous pressure. - **Main Logic**: On October 28, the market sentiment weakened, and the spot downstream transactions were cautious. Urea returned to the fundamental situation and is expected to oscillate and consolidate [30] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: Driven by the sentiment of related varieties, but the fundamentals are under pressure and the elasticity is limited. - **Main Logic**: The cost side oscillates without a clear direction. The supply of coal - based MEG is high, and the supply pressure in November is still large, leading to a significant inventory build - up from November to December [20] PX - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment fermentation and cost game, pay attention to the conference resolution. - **Main Logic**: The concern about Russian oil supply has eased, and the medium - and long - term oil prices still face surplus pressure, causing the cost support to be insufficient in the short term. The PX supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, and the bottom support of PXN has increased. The price is expected to be sorted out within the range in the short term [13][14] PTA - **Viewpoint**: The cost has fallen and failed to resonate with the sentiment. Pay attention to the subsequent situation of the conference. - **Main Logic**: The cost support is insufficient in the short term due to the easing of concerns about Russian oil supply. The downstream production and sales have turned cold. The PTA price is expected to oscillate under the game between cost and the fermentation of the conference news [14][16] Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the upstream sentiment fermentation, and there is no pressure on its own inventory. - **Main Logic**: After the slowdown in price increase, the production and sales of polyester short - fiber have become dull. The downstream demand is weak, and the cost support is disturbed. The price is expected to be sorted out within the range in the short term [24][25] Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: The cost support has weakened, pay attention to the conference results. - **Main Logic**: The market is digesting the impact of anti - involution on upstream polyester raw materials. The oil price has turned down again, and the polyester bottle - chip price is expected to oscillate following the cost in the short term [26] Propylene and PP - **Viewpoint**: The spread between propylene and PP continues to fluctuate in the range of 500 - 550, and PL oscillates. PP is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates, and the supply - side situation of Russian oil is difficult to verify. The fundamentals of PP support are limited, and the inventory is at a high level. The PL price oscillates, and the spread between PP and PL fluctuates around 500 [33][34] Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: The cost - side support confronts the supply - demand pressure, and plastic is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The oil price rebounds, and the supply - side situation of Russian oil is difficult to verify. The plastic's own fundamentals support is limited, and the profit support is also limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [32] Styrene - **Viewpoint**: There is a lack of positive driving factors, and styrene oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: Styrene has followed the decline in oil prices and then rebounded, but the rebound is weak. It is affected by factors such as new installations and weak downstream follow - up [18][19] PVC - **Viewpoint**: It has low valuation and weak expectations, and PVC oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The macro - level sentiment has improved, but the PVC fundamentals are under pressure. The production will increase, the downstream demand is only released at low prices, and the export is affected by anti - dumping [36] Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The macro - level sentiment has improved, but the upstream production is high. The demand elasticity of caustic soda is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [37] 4. Summary of Index Data - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2242.59, down 0.90%; the commodity 20 index was 2532.38, down 1.19%; the industrial products index was 2238.86, down 0.64% [285] - **Energy Index**: On October 28, 2025, the energy index was 1168.84, with a daily decline of 0.85%, a 5 - day increase of 3.52%, a 1 - month decline of 2.56%, and a year - to - date decline of 4.81% [287]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, rubber shows a strong performance, but the further driving force is limited. It should focus on macro - sentiment changes. In the medium - to - long - term, it is regarded as neutral to weak due to supply pressure and demand uncertainties [1]. - The future trend of rubber prices is expected to be volatile, with weak fundamental drivers. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Short - term: Rubber rebounded in resonance with the crude oil and chemical sectors. The low valuation of RU, tight spot liquidity of dark - colored rubber, and certain digestion of fundamental negative factors led to the rebound. However, rubber's rebound may suppress procurement demand [1]. - Medium - to - long - term: The global total production capacity cycle has not fully peaked, and supply pressure will increase. Stable demand expectations require continuous macro - positive factors, and export growth faces risks [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Price Range and Trend Judgement**: The reference oscillation range for RU2601 in the next week is 14,900 - 15,500; for NR2511, it is 12,100 - 12,600. It is expected to maintain oscillation in the future, with weak fundamental drivers [15]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. Consider shorting at high prices for far - month contracts with protective option strategies. For basis trading, consider reverse cash - and - carry at high prices. For now, wait and see for spread arbitrage and consider widening the spread at low prices for variety arbitrage [16]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range for rubber RU in the next two weeks is 14,800 - 15,500; for 20 - grade rubber NR, it is 12,100 - 12,600 [20]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management, short rubber futures and use options to lock in profits and reduce risks. For procurement management, buy far - month rubber futures and use options to lock in costs and reduce risks [20][22]. 3.2 Important Information and Concerns 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Tensions between the US and Russia, a significant drop in EIA inventory, and other factors drove up the prices of crude oil and the chemical sector. There was an acceleration in dry - rubber de - stocking, positive macro - economic data, and growth in global light - vehicle sales [23]. - **Negative Information**: Macroeconomic data such as LPR remaining unchanged, a decline in fixed - asset investment, and an increase in rubber imports put downward pressure on rubber prices [25]. 3.2.2 This Week's Focus - Monitor rainfall in rubber - producing areas, Fed FOMC interest - rate decisions, Chinese official PMI data, EIA inventory reports, and new foreign - trade policies [27]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - **Domestic Market**: Rubber prices rebounded last week. RU's position increased, while NR's decreased. Short - position profits for RU and NR decreased, and net positions rebounded. Spot prices generally rebounded, and the basis and term structure of RU and NR changed [28][29][32]. - **Foreign Market**: The foreign - market trend was similar to that of the domestic market, with less volatility in Japanese rubber and stronger performance in Singapore's 20 - grade rubber. The term structure of Japanese and Singaporean rubber also changed [53][55]. 3.3.2 Other Analyses - **Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Index**: Rubber sentiment fluctuated greatly last week, with a bullish sentiment. RU's virtual - to - physical ratio increased, while NR's decreased [57]. - **Domestic - Foreign Spread Tracking**: The spread between RU and Japanese rubber futures decreased significantly, while the spread between NR and Singaporean rubber was similar to the previous period [59]. - **Variety Spread Analysis**: The spread between light and dark rubber rebounded. The spread between natural and synthetic rubber slightly adjusted [62][71]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - **Raw Material Costs**: Domestic raw - material prices rebounded. In Thailand, water and cup - rubber prices remained stable, and the spread between them slightly narrowed [77]. - **Processing Profits**: The delivery profit of whole - latex remained low, and the profit of TSR9710 decreased. The processing and import profits of imported rubber showed different trends [85][86][89]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - **Production in Major Producing Countries**: Thailand's production is expected to increase smoothly, Indonesia's production may slightly decrease, and Malaysia's production may be affected by weather and low rubber prices. Vietnam's production and exports are affected by weather and tariffs [90]. - **Import Situation**: In September, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import of Thai standard rubber decreased, while that of Thai mixed rubber increased [94][95]. 3.5.2 Demand Side - **Total Demand in Major Producing Countries**: In August, China's actual consumption of natural rubber was stable year - on - year, while the demand in other major producing countries decreased [104]. - **Tire Production and Sales**: After the holiday, tire - enterprise capacity utilization increased. Tire exports showed strong resilience but decreased month - on - month [107]. - **Replacement Demand**: The domestic logistics industry is stable, but fixed - asset investment may suppress replacement demand in the long run [112]. - **Supporting Demand**: Domestic automobile sales were good, and tire supporting demand was stable. However, long - term tire supporting demand from trucks may be limited [115]. - **Overseas Tire Production and Demand**: Japanese tire production was stable, and Thai tire shipments increased. US tire imports increased, and European passenger - car production and sales were stable [126][129]. 3.5.3 Inventory Side - **Futures Inventory**: RU warehouse receipts continued to decline, while NR warehouse receipts increased [133]. - **Social Inventory**: As of October 26, 2025, Qingdao's natural - rubber inventory decreased, with changes in inbound and outbound rates [136].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore price is expected to continue its high - level oscillation before steel mills cut production, and the performance of key steel products should be closely monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be oscillatory, while the intraday trend is expected to be oscillatory and slightly stronger. Attention should be paid to the support level at the MA60 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and the iron ore price has fallen from its high level [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment is weak, causing the over - valued iron ore price to fall under pressure. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakly stable. The rigid demand for ore is relatively good, providing support for the price. However, the contradictions in the steel market are continuously accumulating, and the positive effects are weakening. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has reached a new high, and the shipments from miners remain at a high level. Overseas ore suppliers are actively supplying under high prices, and domestic ore supply has also recovered, increasing the supply pressure. - In summary, the supply pressure of ore persists, and combined with the weakening market sentiment, the over - valued iron ore price has fallen under pressure. But the high - level rigid demand for ore continues to support the price, creating resistance to the downward movement [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The research report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - For methanol, with the return of concentrated domestic installations, high production profits, and increased imports, supply pressure is high. Demand is weak, and inventory pressure is large. However, short - selling is not cost - effective, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, after the holiday, the futures price dropped significantly, and the spot price dropped less. Supply pressure increased, demand was weak, and inventory rose. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities when there are clear positive signals [6]. - For rubber, affected by the macro - environment, the rubber price broke down in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially re - establish a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [13]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities in the medium term [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, although the spot and futures prices are falling, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, the port inventory may decline, and the price may stop falling [19]. - For polyethylene, cost support exists, and the downward space of PE valuation is limited. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, the price may fluctuate upward [22]. - For polypropylene, supply pressure remains, demand is seasonally rebounding from a low level, and inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [25]. - For PX, the load remains high, downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term overhauls, and the expected PX inventory accumulation cycle will continue. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. - For PTA, the supply - side overhaul volume is high, the de - stocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [31]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures fell 6.80 yuan/barrel, or 1.45%, to 461.90 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.27 million barrels, diesel inventory increased by 0.31 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.12 million barrels, naphtha inventory increased by 0.78 million barrels, and aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.39 million barrels. The total refined oil inventory increased by 0.32 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, and verify OPEC's export - price - support intention when oil prices fall [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang fell 3 yuan, in Inner Mongolia fell 5 yuan, and remained stable in southern Shandong. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 17 yuan to 2307 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 97. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 12 to - 44 [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the current short - selling cost - effectiveness is low [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong fell 20 yuan, and in Henan fell 30 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market fell 12 yuan to 1597 yuan, and the basis was - 57. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1 to - 69 [6]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or look for long - position opportunities when there are clear positive signals [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Affected by the US tariff statement, global risk asset prices dropped. Forecasted rainfall in Thailand and other places will increase in the next 7 - 14 days. Tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday. As of October 9, 2025, the all - steel tire开工率 in Shandong was 46.38%, and the semi - steel tire开工率 was 50.87%. The export of semi - steel tires slowed down. As of September 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 111.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons [11]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or operate short - term, and partially re - establish a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract fell 34 yuan to 4735 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4640 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 95. The 1 - 5 spread was - 318. The cost side remained stable, the overall开工率 was 82.6%, and the downstream开工率 was 47.8%. Factory inventory was 38.4 million tons, and social inventory was 103.6 million tons [13]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling opportunities in the medium term due to strong supply, weak demand, and poor export expectations [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene remained unchanged at 5770 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price fell 50 yuan/ton to 6750 yuan/ton, and the active - contract closing price fell 75 yuan/ton to 6743 yuan/ton. The basis was 7 yuan/ton, and the BZN spread was 125.75 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 73.61%, and the Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.44 million tons to 20.19 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted开工率 was 38.54% [18]. - **Strategy**: The styrene price may stop falling as the BZN spread has room for upward repair and the seasonal peak season is approaching [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price fell 40 yuan/ton to 7037 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton to 7100 yuan/ton. The basis was 63 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 83.6%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 7.56 million tons to 38.27 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.43 million tons to 4.67 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 45% [21]. - **Strategy**: The price may fluctuate upward as cost support exists and the seasonal peak season is approaching [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price fell 23 yuan/ton to 6722 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged at 6780 yuan/ton. The basis was 58 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 77.29%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.03 million tons to 52.03 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 0.11 million tons to 18.72 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.47 million tons to 6.65 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 52% [24]. - **Strategy**: There is no prominent short - term contradiction due to high supply pressure, seasonal demand rebound, and high inventory pressure [25]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol - **PX** - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract fell 82 yuan to 6504 yuan. The PX CFR fell 11 dollars to 798 dollars. The PX load in China was 87.4%, and in Asia was 79.9%. Some domestic and overseas installations restarted, and one Japanese installation was under maintenance. The PTA load was 74.4%. In September, South Korea's PX exports to China were 37.9 million tons [27]. - **Strategy**: The PX inventory accumulation cycle may continue, and it is recommended to wait and see [28]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 50 yuan to 4534 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 10 yuan to 4490 yuan. The PTA load was 74.4%. The downstream load was 91.5%. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) on September 26 was 210.7 million tons [28]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the supply - side overhaul volume is high and the processing fee space is limited [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 58 yuan to 4100 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 18 yuan to 4206 yuan. The supply - side load was 75.1%. The downstream load was 91.5%. The port inventory increased by 9.8 million tons to 50.7 million tons [30]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies due to high supply, increasing imports, and expected inventory accumulation [31].