投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-25 商品情绪偏强带动胶价上行 油脂：昨日菜油偏强，关注国内外油脂产需预期变化 蛋白粕：库存压力持续，双粕低位震荡 玉米/淀粉：降雪天气，阶段性影响产区上量 生猪：部分区域二育增加，猪价止跌反弹 天然橡胶：商品情绪偏强带动胶价上行 合成橡胶：盘面跌后反弹 棉花：反弹延续 白糖：空头获利了结，带动糖价反弹 纸浆：商品市场氛围回暖，纸浆期货维持震荡偏涨 双胶纸：震荡运行 原木：基本面边际好转，原木区间震荡 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 天然橡胶观点：商品情绪偏强带动胶价上行 逻辑：天胶昨日强势上涨，其中浅色胶RU相较于NR更强，收盘时已经突破 近3个月的震荡区间上沿。昨日偏强表现背后的原因我们认为更多来自于 宏观的带动，即整体商品资金的情绪大好。不过虽说小幅突破震荡区间， 但听闻盘后上游出货偏多，盘面上方套保压力或依旧偏大。目前来说从基 本面的角度仍属于没有强驱动的阶段，且地缘炒作我们认为暂时难以验证 实质影响，需持续关注。基本面具体来说，目前海外供应季节性上量相对 顺利，但原料价格坚挺一 ...

Oil Market - Oil prices continued to decline, with WTI January contract closing at $56.82 per barrel, down $0.62, a decrease of 1.08% [2][12] - Brent February contract closed at $60.56 per barrel, down $0.56, a decrease of 0.92% [2][12] - China's industrial crude oil production in November was 17.63 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, with an average daily production of 588,000 tons [2][12] - Kazakhstan has increased oil supplies to Kyrgyzstan and plans to resume shipments to Uzbekistan in December, which may exert pressure on oil prices [2][12] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 2.11% to 2417 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil increased by 1.08% to 3005 yuan/ton [3][13] - The market remains under pressure due to ample supply, with significant inventory accumulation in November [3][13] - Downstream demand for marine fuel remains stable, but high sulfur fuel oil margins have decreased, potentially increasing demand from refineries [3][13] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2602 rose by 0.54% to 2963 yuan/ton, supported by concerns over raw material shortages due to geopolitical tensions [4][14] - Domestic demand for asphalt shows regional disparities, with the northern market focused on storage and the southern market on actual consumption [4][14] Rubber - The main contract for Shanghai rubber RU2605 fell by 30 yuan/ton to 15200 yuan/ton, while NR rose by 30 yuan/ton to 12360 yuan/ton [5][15] - U.S. tire imports increased by 6.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with notable increases from Thailand [5][15] - Natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 0.94 million tons, indicating a rise in supply [5][15] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4696 yuan/ton, up 1.78%, while EG2601 closed at 3651 yuan/ton, up 0.66% [6][16] - PX futures closed at 6784 yuan/ton, with a narrowing basis indicating stable demand [6][16] - Ethylene glycol prices remain low, with some facilities operating at a loss, which may alleviate domestic supply pressure [6][16] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polyolefins in East China range from 6170 to 6400 yuan/ton, with production margins remaining negative [7][17] - Supply is expected to remain high, but demand is weakening, leading to increased inventory pressure [7][17] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4310 to 4420 yuan/ton [8][18] - Domestic real estate construction is expected to slow down, impacting demand for pipes and profiles [8][18] Urea - Urea futures prices showed slight fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 1629 yuan/ton, down 0.06% [9][19] - Supply levels are decreasing, with daily production at 194,600 tons, while demand remains weak [9][19] Glass - Glass futures prices showed slight increases, with the main contract closing at 950 yuan/ton, up 0.11% [10][20] - The glass market remains cautious, with production levels stable but demand showing signs of weakness [10][20]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-12 IEA⾃5⽉来⾸次下调原油过剩预期，化 ⼯仍受到供给端拖累 煤炭和原油价格延续偏弱格局。我国焦煤期货主力合约价格近期不断 下探，就基本面而言，生产稳定，需求则低于季节性常规表现，港口库存 持续累积，这是煤炭价格的主要利空点。国际原油价格近期也震荡走弱， 有风险资产的拖累，也有俄罗斯原油买家开始逐步涌现带来的利空，因俄 油的贴水开始更加具备经济性。国际能源署最新自5月以来首次下调过剩 预期，背后的原因是有：OPEC+上月暂停增产的决定、对该组织竞争对手 产量的微幅下调，以及全球石油消费前景的改善。 板块逻辑： 化工产业链条品种价格跟随原料同步走弱。财联社报道，我国中央经 济工作会议近期召开，会议确立了制定全国统一大市场建设条例，深入整 治"内卷式"竞争的方针，这一度在11日的日盘对化工有拉升作用。回归 石化产业自身，供给压力依旧高企，美国炼厂开工率快速回升至94.5%， 中国主营炼厂开工也见底回升；芳烃端PTA的开工基本周度持平，苯乙烯 开工周度略降；聚烯烃维持高开工，以塑料为例，呈现供给增加、需求萎 缩、成本 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4]. - The decline in crude oil and coal prices has weakened the cost - end of the chemical industry, leading many chemical varieties into a full - line loss situation. There is a possibility that some large - scale petrochemical enterprises will conduct unexpected over - maintenance during the 2026 maintenance season. Therefore, it is risky to continue to chase the decline in the chemical industry, and it may be safer for short - sellers to take profits [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists. The EIA has further raised the estimated U.S. crude oil production, and the refining rate has rebounded. The inventory of refined oil products has continued to accumulate, and the total inventory of crude oil and refined oil products has decreased. The production trend of OPEC + is not obvious, and the effective supply of Russian oil has decreased marginally. The market is in a long - short game and is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt futures price is weakly volatile. The price has fallen due to the increase in OPEC + production and the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement. The market expects the end - of - year real estate policy to boost the real estate and infrastructure sectors. The pricing of asphalt futures has returned to Shandong spot, and the high valuation is being revised down. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The support for the high - sulfur fuel oil futures price is insufficient. The increase in OPEC + production, the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement, and the entry into the off - season have led to a decrease in demand. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It follows the decline in crude oil. The recent strengthening of natural gas has boosted the demand expectation, but it is also facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic supply pressure of refined oil products may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: Cost support is poor, and the increase is hindered without further positive support in the market. The international oil price is weakly sorted out, and the naphtha price has followed the decline of the upstream. The PX price has also fallen, and the market's expectation for next year's supply - demand is good, so the adjustment range is limited [12]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: The upstream cost support is insufficient, and the price follows the decline, while the basis is relatively strong. The upstream cost support is weak, and there is no further positive support in the polyester industry chain. The PTA fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the spot is slightly tight [12][13]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price fluctuates. In reality, the import volume has arrived at the port in large quantities, the port inventory has accumulated rapidly, and the downstream demand is weak. In the future, the fundamentals may improve marginally, and the inventory inflection point is approaching [14][15]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price falls during the day. In the short term, the trading is mainly around liquidity issues. In the future, the improvement of the pure benzene pattern will support styrene, but it will also enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period [17]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: Pay attention to the device disturbance pattern when the price is continuously at a low level. After continuous decline, the price is in a narrow - range sorting trend. With the price at a low level, the supply side may have a new reduction, and the market sentiment can be moderately restored [18][19]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The price is dragged down by the ethylene glycol cost, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream polyester raw material price fluctuates and falls, and the short - fiber production and sales are average, and the inventory slightly increases [20][22]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: The upstream cost support weakens, and the price center moves down. The continuous decline of the upstream raw material price has weakened the support for polyester bottle chips, and the price has fallen to a low level, resulting in good trading volume [23]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: The unloading in coastal areas is less than expected, and the supply - demand in the inland area provides support, so methanol fluctuates and sorts out. The inventory in the port area has decreased, mainly due to the back - flowing of goods to the inland area and the less - than - expected unloading of arriving goods. The short - term near - end is still restricted by factors such as high inventory and concentrated import arrivals [26][27]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: Both support and suppression are significant, and the market fluctuates and sorts out. The daily output of urea is at a relatively high level, and the demand side is supported by off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export port collection. The inventory of enterprises continues to decline, and the market is in a stalemate [27][28]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The maintenance support is still limited, and the expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, so the plastic fluctuates. The oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the real estate policy expectation is slightly released, the self - fundamental support is limited, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [31]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: The expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, and PP fluctuates. The real estate policy expectation is released, the oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the PDH profit is still under pressure, and the PP downstream is in the off - season, with a cautious purchasing attitude [32]. 3.1.16 PL (Propylene) - **View**: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, so PL fluctuates. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, the downstream buying is cautious, and the weak downstream PP price drags down PL through the low powder start - up rate [33]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: Marginal enterprises reduce production, and PVC takes profits when the price is low. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. Marginal enterprises have reduced production, but the over - supply expectation has not been reversed. The downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and the export order is light [34]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The price of liquid chlorine drops rapidly, and short positions in caustic soda take profits. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. The supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, the price drop of liquid chlorine has pushed up the cost of caustic soda, and the upstream reduction expectation is increasing [35][36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the latest values and change values of the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [39] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [40] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the latest values and change values of the inter - variety spreads of various combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc. [42] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summary content is provided in the text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index is 2577.38, up 0.65%; the industrial product index is 2189.12, up 0.17%; the PPI commodity index is 1356.51, up 0.63% [281]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on December 10, 2025, is 1107.95, with a daily decline of 0.27%, a decline of 1.59% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.29% in the past month, and a decline of 9.77% since the beginning of the year [282].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, it is expected that tin prices will remain strong throughout the year. Hold existing long positions and adopt a strategy of buying on dips during price corrections. Monitor macro - level changes and supply - side fluctuations [1]. Zinc - With the improvement of interest - rate cut expectations and the opening of export space, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. Supply pressure eases, and the price is expected to move higher in the short term. Pay attention to the December FOMC meeting [4]. Copper - In the short term, the imbalance in global copper supply and inventory drives copper prices to rise rapidly, with increased price volatility. In the long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the price bottom. Focus on the range of 90,000 - 91,000 yuan/ton [6]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations, with the reference range for the main contract moving down to 2550 - 2800 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to remain strong in the short term, but beware of pull - back risks after price surges [8]. Industrial Silicon - It is expected that industrial silicon prices will oscillate at low levels, with the main price fluctuation range between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips if the price drops to 8500 - 8700 yuan/ton [9]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures are likely to oscillate at high levels, but considering the weak demand, the probability of the futures price falling to converge with the spot price is higher. Adopt a wait - and - see trading strategy [10]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton. Monitor the improvement in scrap aluminum supply and downstream procurement patterns [11]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to changes in macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate and recover in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Monitor the implementation of steel - mill production cuts and raw - material price changes [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 92,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton. Consider the resumption of production by large manufacturers and the sustainability of off - season demand [17]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices and Basis - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 800 yuan/ton to 314,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.25%. SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 23,130 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton [4]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 715 yuan/ton to 92,300 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.78%. The premium decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton [6]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 170 yuan/ton to 21,920 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.77%. The premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 8300 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.59% [9]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52,300 yuan/kg [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 21,600 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.46% [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 150 yuan/ton to 120,200 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.12%. The premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 4950 yuan/ton [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,800 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.79%. The basis increased by 90 yuan/ton to 460 yuan/ton [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 92,750 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.54%. The basis decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 92,750 yuan/ton [17]. Inter - monthly Spreads - **Tin**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 200 yuan/ton to - 350 yuan/ton, a rise of 36.36% [1]. - **Zinc**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **Copper**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 40 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [6]. - **Aluminum**: The spread between AL 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 8830 yuan/ton to - 8675 yuan/ton, a decline of 5696.77% [9]. - **Polysilicon**: The spread between the main contract and the first - continuous contract decreased by 525 yuan/ton to 2655 yuan/ton, a decline of 16.51% [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [11]. - **Nickel**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts decreased by 22 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 1500 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data Tin - In October, tin ore imports increased by 2918 tons to 11,632 tons, a rise of 33.49%. SMM refined tin production in October increased by 2580 tons to 16,090 tons, a rise of 53.09% [1]. Zinc - In November, refined zinc production decreased by 2.20 million tons to 59.52 million tons, a decline of 3.56%. In October, refined zinc imports decreased by 0.38 million tons to 1.88 million tons, a decline of 16.94% [4]. Copper - In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.15 million tons to 110.31 million tons, a rise of 1.05%. In October, electrolytic copper imports decreased by 5.22 million tons to 28.21 million tons, a decline of 15.61% [6]. Aluminum - In November, alumina production decreased by 34.6 million tons to 743.94 million tons, a decline of 4.44%. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 10.6 million tons to 363.66 million tons, a decline of 2.82% [8]. Industrial Silicon - National industrial silicon production decreased by 5.05 million tons to 40.17 million tons, a decline of 11.17%. The national operating rate decreased by 3.30 percentage points to 64.82% [9]. Polysilicon - Weekly polysilicon production increased by 0.18 million tons to 2.58 million tons, a rise of 7.50%. Monthly polysilicon production decreased by 1.94 million tons to 11.46 million tons, a decline of 14.48% [10]. Aluminum Alloy - In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 3.7 million tons to 68.20 million tons, a rise of 5.74%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.7 million tons to 30.27 million tons, a rise of 5.84% [11]. Nickel - Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 3453 tons to 33,345 tons, a decline of 9.38%. Refined nickel imports decreased by 18,626 tons to 9741 tons, a decline of 65.66% [13]. Stainless Steel - The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel (43 manufacturers) decreased by 1.30 million tons to 178.70 million tons, a decline of 0.72%. The production of Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel (Qinglong) increased by 0.15 million tons to 42.35 million tons, a rise of 0.36% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3090 tons to 92,350 tons, a rise of 3.35%. Lithium carbonate demand increased by 6490 tons to 133,451 tons, a rise of 5.11% [17]. Inventory Changes Tin - SHEF weekly inventory increased by 206 tons to 6865 tons, a rise of 1.96%. Social inventory increased by 187 tons to 8012 tons, a rise of 2.39% [1]. Zinc - China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 0.83 million tons to 13.60 million tons, a decline of 5.75%. LME inventory increased by 0.24 million tons to 5.8 million tons, a rise of 4.29% [4]. Copper - Domestic social inventory increased by 0.13 million tons to 16.03 million tons, a rise of 0.82%. Bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.14 million tons to 7.75 million tons, a decline of 12.82% [6]. Aluminum - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons to 59.50 million tons, a decline of 0.17%. LME inventory decreased by 0.3 million tons to 52.6 million tons, a decline of 0.47% [8]. Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang inventory increased by 0.34 million tons to 12.38 million tons, a rise of 2.82%. Social inventory increased by 0.80 million tons to 55.80 million tons, a rise of 1.45% [9]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.00 million tons to 29.10 million tons, a rise of 3.56%. Silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.80 million tons to 21.30 million tons, a rise of 9.23% [10]. Aluminum Alloy - The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.03 million tons to 5.53 million tons, a decline of 0.54% [11]. Nickel - SHFE inventory increased by 1726 tons to 42,508 tons, a rise of 4.23%. Social inventory increased by 1499 tons to 26,848 tons, a rise of 2.71% [13]. Stainless Steel - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.04 million tons to 49.20 million tons, a decline of 2.06%. The 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.44 million tons to 29.82 million tons, a decline of 1.44% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In November, lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 19,674 tons to 64,560 tons, a decline of 23.36%. Downstream inventory decreased by 11,261 tons to 42,030 tons, a decline of 21.13% [17].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-10 柴油裂差近期⼤幅⾛弱，聚烯烃等诸多 品种创年内新低 原油期货价格周一下跌2%后，略略企稳，市场关注三大能源机构IE A、EIA和OPEC本周即将颁布的月度报告。受制裁原油销路不畅以及炼油厂 遭乌克兰无人机袭击等因素影响，俄罗斯11月原油产量远低于其在OPEC+ 框架下的配额，日产量较配额值低10余万桶。随着美国炼厂开工率持续攀 升，成品油季节性累库，成品油裂解价差走弱，亚洲一些简单型炼厂已接 近亏损。俄乌和平谈判是近期交易的重心，如果迟迟没有定论，油价仍将 延续震荡整理态势。 板块逻辑： 周二化工品价格大幅下挫，EG、PVC、PP和PE均跌至年度低点，供给 本身的压力以及原料走弱，是这些化工品下跌的主要原因。即使当前聚烯 烃全线亏损，两品种的日产量仍较去年同期有15%以上的增量，产业尚未 减产。周二因苯乙烯下游ABS亏损严重，卓创报道后期可能会有ABS企业卖 原料而停产ABS的举动；叠加纯苯持续走高的库存，苯乙烯开启下跌。急 跌之后期价可能重回震荡，但向上的动力尚未看到。 原油：地缘溢价摇摆，供应压力延续 沥 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年12月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内 石油沥青样本产能利用率为29.4823%，环比增加3.056个百分点，全国样本企业出货26.21万吨，环 比增加6.74%,样本企业产量为49.2万吨，环比增加11.56%,样本企业装置检修量预估为86.6万吨， 环比减少9.60%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为27.8%，环比增加0.12个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工 率为6.6%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为10.5658 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the pig and egg industries is cautiously bearish [3][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the pig industry, the decline in pig prices has led to an accumulation of frozen - product inventory, affecting the growth of slaughter volume. End - of - year demand may have limited impact on pig prices, and the current large supply pressure has a more prominent suppressing effect on short - term pig prices [2] - In the egg industry, although capacity reduction has started, the inventory of laying hens remains high, and the short - term supply pressure cannot be substantially alleviated. The demand side has limited ability to boost egg prices, and the price increase space is expected to be relatively limited [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2601 contract yesterday was 11,490 yuan/ton, a change of +35.00 yuan/ton (+0.31%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 11.18 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.05 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 11.37 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.12 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.33 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.17 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural product prices: On December 2, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.29 points, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.34 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 17.59 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.2%; beef was 66.88 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.5%; mutton was 63.22 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.3%; eggs were 7.44 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.5%; and white - striped chickens were 17.61 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.6% [1] Market Analysis - Pig price decline has led to the accumulation of frozen - product inventory, affecting the growth of slaughter volume. End - of - year pickling demand is slightly lower than expected, and the demand at the end of the year may have limited ability to boost pig prices. The subsequent demand recovery strength remains to be seen, and the current large supply pressure has a more prominent suppressing effect on short - term pig prices [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2601 contract yesterday was 3138 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of - 64.00 yuan (-2.00%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.96 yuan/jin, with no change; in Shandong, it was 3.20 yuan/jin, with no change; in Hebei, it was 2.64 yuan/jin, a change of - 0.03 yuan [3] - Inventory: On December 3, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 0.97 days, an increase of 0.05 days (5.43%); the circulation - link inventory was 1.21 days, an increase of 0.02 days (1.68%) [3] Market Analysis - Although capacity reduction has started, the inventory of laying hens remains high, and the short - term supply pressure cannot be substantially alleviated. Against the background of high supply, the demand side has limited ability to boost egg prices, and the current price increase space is expected to be relatively limited [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international soybean market supply and demand are relatively loose, with limited upward space for the soybean price. The domestic soybean meal market is also in a state of loose supply and demand, and there is still price pressure in the medium and long - term. Rapeseed meal is affected by supply pressure and relevant rumors, and its price is expected to be under pressure [4][7]. - The monthly spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows a downward trend, and it is expected that there will still be pressure in the future [3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On December 1, 2025, the domestic soybean meal futures prices slightly declined, and the rapeseed meal futures prices generally fell. The spot basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions changed to varying degrees. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased, and the monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed a downward trend [3]. - **Market Trends**: After the opening of the US soybean market, the market showed a volatile trend, and the domestic soybean meal market slightly declined. The rapeseed meal market generally declined, and the market was worried about supply pressure [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The monthly supply - demand report of US soybeans is generally bullish, but the market has fully reflected the bullish factors, and the upward space is limited. The sowing progress of new - crop soybeans in Brazil is fast, and it is expected to be a bumper harvest, which will put pressure on the price in the medium - term. The old - crop soybeans in Brazil and Argentina have good export and crushing performance, but the future export growth space may be limited [4]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal market supply and demand are relatively loose, with high inventory. The demand for rapeseed meal is weakening, and the supply pressure still exists [5]. 3.3 Macro - analysis - The macro - situation is generally stable. The resumption of the soybean export qualification of three US companies to China has improved the export prospects of US soybeans, but the future import volume is still uncertain [6]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - The US soybean market is mainly in a volatile state, and the price change is expected to be limited. The short - term dry weather in Brazil supports the market. The domestic soybean meal market is under pressure due to loose supply and demand, and there is still price pressure in the medium and long - term. Rapeseed meal is affected by rumors and supply pressure, and its price is expected to be under pressure. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to continue to decline [7]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Continue to lay out a small number of long positions. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年11月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 根据隆众 ， | 2025年11月份地炼沥青总计划排产量为131 2万吨 环比增 ， . ， | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 幅18 2% 同比降幅6 . , | 5% 本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为26 4262% 环比减少 . 。 . ， | | | | | | | | | | 4 37个百分点 ， . | 全国样本企业出货24 555万吨 环比增加15 28% 样本企业产量为 ， . . , | ...