Group 1 - The price of domestic all-latex rubber increased to 15,500 CNY/ton, up by 100 CNY/ton from the previous day, while Thai 20 mixed rubber rose to 14,800 CNY/ton, up by 50 CNY/ton [4] - As of January 18, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory reached 1.273 million tons, an increase of 17,000 tons, or 1.3% from the previous period [4] - The total inventory of dark rubber in China was 850,000 tons, also up by 1.7%, with specific increases in Qingdao and decreases in Yunnan and Vietnam [4] Group 2 - With the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the global market is expected to transition from dynamic pricing based on supply and demand to static pricing based on inventory levels, leading to high volatility in RU, NR, and Sicom prices [5] - Despite a projected moderate growth in demand for rubber products like tires by 2026, the growth will take time and may be limited by ongoing global trade barriers [5] - It is anticipated that the peak of the current rebound in prices will not exceed the levels seen in late July 2025 before the Lunar New Year in 2026 [5] Group 3 - The PX industry in China saw a decrease in operating load by 1.5 percentage points to 89.4%, while the Asian industry load decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 80.6% [26] - The overall supply of PX is expected to remain ample due to lower maintenance plans compared to previous years and increased operational plans from overseas factories [26] - The demand side is under pressure due to numerous maintenance plans in downstream PTA facilities, leading to a projected loosening of the PX supply-demand balance in the first quarter [26] Group 4 - The PTA industry load decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 76.3%, indicating a low level compared to historical data, with expectations of reduced supply due to maintenance plans [27] - The overall demand environment is weak, with a continuous decline in operating rates in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [27] - The current TA-polyester segment fundamentals still have support, but the sustainability of this support will be tested by expectations of reduced polyester production [27] Group 5 - The EG industry load increased by 0.5 percentage points to 74.4%, with the synthetic gas production load rising to 80.2%, indicating high levels compared to historical data [29] - Despite high domestic supply, the demand side is weak, with expectations of inventory accumulation in January and potential peak inventory pressure in February [29] - The macro environment shows signs of warming, but supply pressure remains the dominant factor in the industry [29] Group 6 - The PR industry load decreased by 6.4 percentage points to 68.4%, with expectations of continued supply contraction due to maintenance plans [32] - The demand side is weak due to the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, limiting production recovery potential in January and February [32] - Recent tightening of spot supply and rapid expansion of processing fees indicate a strong basis for PR prices [32] Group 7 - The soda ash market saw a slight decline in futures prices, with a recent increase in production leading to increased supply pressure [33] - Downstream demand has slightly decreased, with recent inventory reductions indicating a weakening purchasing sentiment [33] - The overall market sentiment remains mixed, with macroeconomic factors showing neutral influences [34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: strong; Overall view: run strongly [1][5] - **Driving Logic**: After Thailand and Cambodia declared a truce, the expectation of reduced rubber supply in Southeast Asia disappeared, weakening the bullish drive. However, domestic natural rubber producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan have entered the off - season, reducing domestic supply pressure, while Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. Also, domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Benefiting from the overall strength of energy - chemical products, Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong trend on the night of Tuesday and are expected to continue this trend on Wednesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: strong; Overall view: run strongly [1][7] - **Driving Logic**: The spot price of butadiene has risen sharply due to the tight supply of northern sources and downstream replenishment demand. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, leading to reduced production or shutdown of some plants and a decrease in supply expectations. In addition, domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected, and the crude oil futures maintain an oscillatory and strong pattern, strengthening the cost support. Under the bullish atmosphere, synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong trend on the night of Tuesday and are expected to continue this trend on Wednesday [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall commodity market shows a mixed trend, with different agricultural products having their own price movements and influencing factors. For example, natural rubber prices rose due to strong commodity sentiment, but face potential pressure from hedging; while soybean - related products are affected by factors such as South American harvest expectations and domestic inventory levels [1][5]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 (1)油脂 - **观点**: Yesterday, rapeseed oil was relatively strong. Pay attention to the changes in domestic and international oil production and demand expectations. - **Logic**: Concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest led to a bearish trend in US soybeans and soybean oil. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend, with rapeseed oil relatively strong. The macro - environment includes a strong US Q3 GDP and a weakening US dollar, and rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical concerns. From the industrial side, South American soybean harvest expectations are strong, US soybean demand is uncertain, domestic soybean inventories are high, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. Palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction period in December, and the probability of inventory reduction in the origin is high. Rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase in the later stage. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. The oil market is facing a game of multiple factors and may continue to fluctuate in the near future [5]. (2)蛋白粕 - **观点**: Inventory pressure persists, and the two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) prices fluctuate at a low level. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US soybean market is closed during the Christmas period. US soybean crushing volume decreased in November, and exports to China grew slowly. South American soybeans have a good production outlook. Domestically, spot and basis are stable, soybean and soybean meal inventories are slowly decreasing seasonally, downstream aquaculture is in a loss, and consumption is not strong during the peak season. The purchase volume of imported soybeans in Q4 2025 decreased year - on - year, while that in Q1 2026 increased year - on - year. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [6]. (3)玉米及淀粉 - **观点**: Snowy weather has a phased impact on the supply in the production area. - **Logic**: In the upstream, snow in the Northeast has slowed down the grain - selling process, and in the North China region, the purchase of local corn has increased. In the downstream, feed enterprises and deep - processing enterprises have different inventory and procurement strategies. The market is in a tight - balance state, with prices having both upward and downward pressures, and is expected to fluctuate within a range. - **Outlook**: Fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to factors such as old wheat auctions, grain - selling progress, and downstream profits [8][9]. (4)生猪 - **观点**: The increase in secondary fattening in some areas has led to a stop in the decline of pig prices and a rebound. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, the short - term supply of large pigs is increasing, the medium - term supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive until April 2026, and the long - term supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. In terms of demand, the demand during the Winter Solstice has increased. In terms of inventory, the average weight of pigs has increased. In the short - term, the increase in consumption has driven the rebound of pig prices, but high - weight pigs may limit the price increase. In the medium - term, the supply - demand situation is generally loose, and in the long - term, the supply pressure is expected to gradually weaken. - **Outlook**: Fluctuate weakly. The near - term prices are expected to be weak, while the far - term prices are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction. Pay attention to reverse - spread strategy opportunities [10]. (5)天然橡胶 - **观点**: Strong commodity sentiment has driven up rubber prices. - **Logic**: Natural rubber prices rose strongly yesterday, mainly due to macro - level driving. Although it slightly broke through the shock range, there may still be large hedging pressure above. The current fundamentals lack strong driving forces. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices support the market to some extent, but there is still a risk of decline. The demand side is weak. If there is no continuous capital inflow, rubber prices are likely to return to the range - bound market. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited variables, and rubber prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with no obvious trend - based single - side market [12]. (6)合成橡胶 - **观点**: The market rebounded after a decline. - **Logic**: The BR contract recovered all the previous day's losses and rose slightly. It is favored by funds due to the marginal improvement of butadiene fundamentals and the relatively low absolute price of the BR contract. The butadiene market price fluctuated upward last week, but there was resistance to high - price transactions later. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene is expected to improve, but there is still short - term upward pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - term [14]. (7)棉花 - **观点**: The rebound continues. - **Logic**: In the long - and medium - term, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices are expected to rise, mainly due to the possible tight - balance situation in the new year and potential positive policies. Currently, commercial inventories are accumulating during the peak cotton - listing period. The planting policy is expected to tighten next year, which may lead to a decrease in the cotton - planting area in Xinjiang. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. Maintain the strategy of buying on dips [14]. (8)白糖 - **观点**: Short - sellers taking profits have driven up sugar prices. - **Logic**: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract rebounded from the low level. Short - sellers taking profits was the main reason for the sharp rise. In the international market, Brazil's sugar production is still at a high level, and the new - season production in the Northern Hemisphere shows different trends. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus supply in the new season. In the domestic market, the supply of sugar will increase marginally. - **Outlook**: In the long - and medium - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, as the new - season global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus [16]. (9)纸浆 - **观点**: The warming atmosphere in the commodity market has led to a fluctuating and rising trend in pulp futures. - **Logic**: The pulp futures fluctuated at a high level yesterday. The fundamental factors include both positive and negative aspects. The positive factors are more likely to be realized in the short - term, and the negative factors are mainly related to the transmission of high prices in the long - term. Overall, the positive factors in the pulp market are more, which will push up the bottom of the futures price. - **Outlook**: Fluctuate strongly. Positive news will lift the bottom, but the hedging pressure above still exists [17]. (10)双胶纸 - **观点**: Fluctuate. - **Logic**: The spot price of double - offset paper is stable. Some paper mills have announced price - increase plans for January 2026, which slightly boosts market confidence. However, the supply - surplus situation is difficult to change, and the market expectation is cautious. The supply pressure still exists, downstream demand is weak, and the supply - demand is in a weak - balance state. - **Outlook**: The weak supply - demand pattern is expected to continue, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. Pay attention to whether paper mills will shut down production [18]. (11)原木 - **观点**: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and logs are expected to fluctuate within a range. - **Logic**: The current contradiction in the log market lies in the realization process of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term supply pressure is gradually relieved, and the futures price of the 03 contract has a certain support level. In the medium - term, the arrival pressure is expected to be relieved, and there are game points in the 03 contract. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the supply pressure is relieved. Pay attention to reverse - spread or low - buying opportunities in the far - month contracts [20]. 2.品种数据监测 - The report only lists the names of various product categories such as "油脂油料", "蛋⽩粕", etc., but no specific data monitoring content is provided. 3.中信期货商品指数 - **综合指数**: - The special index shows that the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all increased, with increases of 1.08%, 1.01%, and 1.10% respectively. - **板块指数**: - The agricultural product index on December 24, 2025, increased by 0.31% today, with a 0.63% increase in the past 5 days, a - 0.86% change in the past month, and a - 3.52% change since the beginning of the year [178][180].

Oil Market - Oil prices continued to decline, with WTI January contract closing at $56.82 per barrel, down $0.62, a decrease of 1.08% [2][12] - Brent February contract closed at $60.56 per barrel, down $0.56, a decrease of 0.92% [2][12] - China's industrial crude oil production in November was 17.63 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, with an average daily production of 588,000 tons [2][12] - Kazakhstan has increased oil supplies to Kyrgyzstan and plans to resume shipments to Uzbekistan in December, which may exert pressure on oil prices [2][12] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 2.11% to 2417 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil increased by 1.08% to 3005 yuan/ton [3][13] - The market remains under pressure due to ample supply, with significant inventory accumulation in November [3][13] - Downstream demand for marine fuel remains stable, but high sulfur fuel oil margins have decreased, potentially increasing demand from refineries [3][13] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2602 rose by 0.54% to 2963 yuan/ton, supported by concerns over raw material shortages due to geopolitical tensions [4][14] - Domestic demand for asphalt shows regional disparities, with the northern market focused on storage and the southern market on actual consumption [4][14] Rubber - The main contract for Shanghai rubber RU2605 fell by 30 yuan/ton to 15200 yuan/ton, while NR rose by 30 yuan/ton to 12360 yuan/ton [5][15] - U.S. tire imports increased by 6.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with notable increases from Thailand [5][15] - Natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 0.94 million tons, indicating a rise in supply [5][15] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4696 yuan/ton, up 1.78%, while EG2601 closed at 3651 yuan/ton, up 0.66% [6][16] - PX futures closed at 6784 yuan/ton, with a narrowing basis indicating stable demand [6][16] - Ethylene glycol prices remain low, with some facilities operating at a loss, which may alleviate domestic supply pressure [6][16] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polyolefins in East China range from 6170 to 6400 yuan/ton, with production margins remaining negative [7][17] - Supply is expected to remain high, but demand is weakening, leading to increased inventory pressure [7][17] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4310 to 4420 yuan/ton [8][18] - Domestic real estate construction is expected to slow down, impacting demand for pipes and profiles [8][18] Urea - Urea futures prices showed slight fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 1629 yuan/ton, down 0.06% [9][19] - Supply levels are decreasing, with daily production at 194,600 tons, while demand remains weak [9][19] Glass - Glass futures prices showed slight increases, with the main contract closing at 950 yuan/ton, up 0.11% [10][20] - The glass market remains cautious, with production levels stable but demand showing signs of weakness [10][20]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of coal and crude oil continue to be weak. The IEA has lowered its crude oil surplus forecast for the first time since May, but the chemical industry is still dragged down by the supply side [1]. - The prices of chemical industry chain products follow the raw materials and decline. The supply pressure in the petrochemical industry remains high, and the prices of most chemical products are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [2]. - The crude oil market is affected by geopolitical premiums and supply pressures, and is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. - The asphalt market is affected by geopolitical disturbances, and the futures price rises first and then falls, with an over - valued absolute price [9]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil market has insufficient price support, and the low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil to fall [9][11]. - Most chemical products such as methanol, urea, and ethylene glycol are expected to fluctuate weakly, while PX and PTA may fluctuate within a certain range [12]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical premiums fluctuate, and supply pressure continues. - **Main Logic**: Affected by the situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela, geopolitical premiums fluctuate. The IEA and OPEC monthly reports strengthen the surplus expectation, but the IEA has lowered the surplus forecast for next year. The price of Russian oil is weakening, and the floating storage is rising. - **Outlook**: The surplus pattern continues, and the geopolitical expectation fluctuates. It is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price rises first and then falls under geopolitical disturbances. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, the probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement still exists, and the situation between the US and Venezuela heats up. The asphalt futures price rises but then falls due to the drag of black varieties. The pricing weight returns to Shandong spot. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The price support of high - sulfur fuel oil is insufficient. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, the probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement exists, and the three major drivers supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weak. The refinery processing demand is weak, and the fuel oil demand is still weak. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak [9]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil to fall. - **Main Logic**: It follows the crude oil to fall, and the strengthening of natural gas boosts the demand expectation. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution. - **Outlook**: It is affected by green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution, with low valuation and follows the crude oil to fluctuate [11]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The coastal unloading is lower than expected, and the inland supply and demand support, so methanol fluctuates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: The port inventory unexpectedly decreases, but it is still at a high level. The inland market is affected by the inflow of low - price port goods and weather disturbances. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [25]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The purchase of compound fertilizers may decrease, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as the suspension of the promotion of off - season storage and the possible decrease in compound fertilizer procurement. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction, off - season storage progress, and compound fertilizer factory operation [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The market pessimism spreads, and the existing device maintenance cannot reverse the inventory accumulation pattern. - **Main Logic**: The price continues to fall, and the current device maintenance cannot change the situation of supply exceeding demand. - **Outlook**: The long - term inventory accumulation pressure is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in a low - level range [18][19]. PX - **Viewpoint**: The tight spot of PTA supports the negotiation of PX, but the upstream cost support is poor and lacks substantial benefits. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price is weak, and the PX price rises and then回调. The market has a strong expectation, but the upstream cost support is insufficient. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and the PXN is expected to be in the range of [260, 300] [12]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: The spot circulation is tight, and the basis remains strong. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost rises and then falls, and the PTA price follows the upstream. The downstream polyester load decreases slightly, and the spot circulation is tight. - **Outlook**: The price follows the cost to fluctuate and consolidate, and the processing fee runs within a range. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long TA02 and shorting PF02 [12]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The price fluctuates within a day due to repeated maintenance news. - **Main Logic**: The recent import volume of pure benzene arrives at the port in large quantities, and the port inventory accumulates rapidly. However, it is expected to improve marginally in Q1 2026. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate [14][16]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The price fluctuates within a day due to repeated maintenance news, with a slightly stronger trend. - **Main Logic**: The short - term trading is mainly around liquidity issues. The port inventory is depleted, and the tradable volume is not abundant. In Q1 2026, the pure benzene pattern improves, which supports styrene. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and attention should be paid to the market sentiment improvement in early 2026 [17]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The price is dragged down by the ethylene glycol cost, and the processing fee is under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is divided, the PTA price is briefly supported, but the ethylene glycol price continues to fall, dragging down the polyester staple fiber price. - **Outlook**: The price follows the upstream to fluctuate, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed [21][22]. Polyester Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: The upstream polyester raw material costs are divided. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures fall weakly, the PTA follows the cost to rise, but the ethylene glycol price continues to fall, dragging down the overall valuation of polyester bottle chips. - **Outlook**: The absolute value follows the raw materials to fluctuate, and the processing fee has enhanced support below [23]. LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: The raw material and maintenance support are still limited, and the price fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The coal price is weak, the oil price fluctuates weakly, and the plastic's own fundamental support is limited. The downstream demand enters the off - season. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [29]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The coal price is still weak, and the price fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The coal price is weak, the oil price fluctuates downwards, and the PP downstream is in the off - season, with a cautious purchasing attitude. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [30]. PL - **Viewpoint**: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, and it fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, but the downstream PP price is weak, dragging down PL through the decline in powder production. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [31]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: The production reduction scale is limited, and the price decline is cautious. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the market's policy expectation cools down. At the micro level, the marginal enterprise production decreases, but the surplus expectation is not reversed. - **Outlook**: The price decline space is cautious [33]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The upstream has not reduced production, and the price is weakly cautious. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the market's policy expectation cools down. At the micro level, the supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, and the upstream profit is close to the break - even point, but there is no production reduction yet. - **Outlook**: The price decline space is cautious [33][34]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring (1) Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, and PP have different degrees of change [36]. - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and PX are provided [37]. - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of various varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, and MA - UR are provided [39]. (2) Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report provides a framework for monitoring the basis and spreads of multiple chemical products such as methanol, urea, and styrene, but specific data is not fully presented. (3) Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all show a decline [281]. - **Energy Index**: The energy index on December 11, 2025, has a daily decline of 1.00%, a 5 - day decline of 2.66%, a 1 - month decline of 3.14%, and a year - to - date decline of 10.67% [283].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4]. - The decline in crude oil and coal prices has weakened the cost - end of the chemical industry, leading many chemical varieties into a full - line loss situation. There is a possibility that some large - scale petrochemical enterprises will conduct unexpected over - maintenance during the 2026 maintenance season. Therefore, it is risky to continue to chase the decline in the chemical industry, and it may be safer for short - sellers to take profits [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists. The EIA has further raised the estimated U.S. crude oil production, and the refining rate has rebounded. The inventory of refined oil products has continued to accumulate, and the total inventory of crude oil and refined oil products has decreased. The production trend of OPEC + is not obvious, and the effective supply of Russian oil has decreased marginally. The market is in a long - short game and is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt futures price is weakly volatile. The price has fallen due to the increase in OPEC + production and the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement. The market expects the end - of - year real estate policy to boost the real estate and infrastructure sectors. The pricing of asphalt futures has returned to Shandong spot, and the high valuation is being revised down. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The support for the high - sulfur fuel oil futures price is insufficient. The increase in OPEC + production, the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement, and the entry into the off - season have led to a decrease in demand. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It follows the decline in crude oil. The recent strengthening of natural gas has boosted the demand expectation, but it is also facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic supply pressure of refined oil products may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: Cost support is poor, and the increase is hindered without further positive support in the market. The international oil price is weakly sorted out, and the naphtha price has followed the decline of the upstream. The PX price has also fallen, and the market's expectation for next year's supply - demand is good, so the adjustment range is limited [12]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: The upstream cost support is insufficient, and the price follows the decline, while the basis is relatively strong. The upstream cost support is weak, and there is no further positive support in the polyester industry chain. The PTA fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the spot is slightly tight [12][13]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price fluctuates. In reality, the import volume has arrived at the port in large quantities, the port inventory has accumulated rapidly, and the downstream demand is weak. In the future, the fundamentals may improve marginally, and the inventory inflection point is approaching [14][15]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price falls during the day. In the short term, the trading is mainly around liquidity issues. In the future, the improvement of the pure benzene pattern will support styrene, but it will also enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period [17]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: Pay attention to the device disturbance pattern when the price is continuously at a low level. After continuous decline, the price is in a narrow - range sorting trend. With the price at a low level, the supply side may have a new reduction, and the market sentiment can be moderately restored [18][19]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The price is dragged down by the ethylene glycol cost, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream polyester raw material price fluctuates and falls, and the short - fiber production and sales are average, and the inventory slightly increases [20][22]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: The upstream cost support weakens, and the price center moves down. The continuous decline of the upstream raw material price has weakened the support for polyester bottle chips, and the price has fallen to a low level, resulting in good trading volume [23]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: The unloading in coastal areas is less than expected, and the supply - demand in the inland area provides support, so methanol fluctuates and sorts out. The inventory in the port area has decreased, mainly due to the back - flowing of goods to the inland area and the less - than - expected unloading of arriving goods. The short - term near - end is still restricted by factors such as high inventory and concentrated import arrivals [26][27]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: Both support and suppression are significant, and the market fluctuates and sorts out. The daily output of urea is at a relatively high level, and the demand side is supported by off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export port collection. The inventory of enterprises continues to decline, and the market is in a stalemate [27][28]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The maintenance support is still limited, and the expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, so the plastic fluctuates. The oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the real estate policy expectation is slightly released, the self - fundamental support is limited, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [31]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: The expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, and PP fluctuates. The real estate policy expectation is released, the oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the PDH profit is still under pressure, and the PP downstream is in the off - season, with a cautious purchasing attitude [32]. 3.1.16 PL (Propylene) - **View**: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, so PL fluctuates. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, the downstream buying is cautious, and the weak downstream PP price drags down PL through the low powder start - up rate [33]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: Marginal enterprises reduce production, and PVC takes profits when the price is low. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. Marginal enterprises have reduced production, but the over - supply expectation has not been reversed. The downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and the export order is light [34]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The price of liquid chlorine drops rapidly, and short positions in caustic soda take profits. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. The supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, the price drop of liquid chlorine has pushed up the cost of caustic soda, and the upstream reduction expectation is increasing [35][36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the latest values and change values of the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [39] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [40] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the latest values and change values of the inter - variety spreads of various combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc. [42] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summary content is provided in the text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index is 2577.38, up 0.65%; the industrial product index is 2189.12, up 0.17%; the PPI commodity index is 1356.51, up 0.63% [281]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on December 10, 2025, is 1107.95, with a daily decline of 0.27%, a decline of 1.59% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.29% in the past month, and a decline of 9.77% since the beginning of the year [282].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, it is expected that tin prices will remain strong throughout the year. Hold existing long positions and adopt a strategy of buying on dips during price corrections. Monitor macro - level changes and supply - side fluctuations [1]. Zinc - With the improvement of interest - rate cut expectations and the opening of export space, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. Supply pressure eases, and the price is expected to move higher in the short term. Pay attention to the December FOMC meeting [4]. Copper - In the short term, the imbalance in global copper supply and inventory drives copper prices to rise rapidly, with increased price volatility. In the long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the price bottom. Focus on the range of 90,000 - 91,000 yuan/ton [6]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations, with the reference range for the main contract moving down to 2550 - 2800 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to remain strong in the short term, but beware of pull - back risks after price surges [8]. Industrial Silicon - It is expected that industrial silicon prices will oscillate at low levels, with the main price fluctuation range between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips if the price drops to 8500 - 8700 yuan/ton [9]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures are likely to oscillate at high levels, but considering the weak demand, the probability of the futures price falling to converge with the spot price is higher. Adopt a wait - and - see trading strategy [10]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton. Monitor the improvement in scrap aluminum supply and downstream procurement patterns [11]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to changes in macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate and recover in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Monitor the implementation of steel - mill production cuts and raw - material price changes [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 92,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton. Consider the resumption of production by large manufacturers and the sustainability of off - season demand [17]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices and Basis - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 800 yuan/ton to 314,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.25%. SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 23,130 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton [4]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 715 yuan/ton to 92,300 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.78%. The premium decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton [6]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 170 yuan/ton to 21,920 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.77%. The premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 8300 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.59% [9]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52,300 yuan/kg [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 21,600 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.46% [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 150 yuan/ton to 120,200 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.12%. The premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 4950 yuan/ton [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,800 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.79%. The basis increased by 90 yuan/ton to 460 yuan/ton [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 92,750 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.54%. The basis decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 92,750 yuan/ton [17]. Inter - monthly Spreads - **Tin**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 200 yuan/ton to - 350 yuan/ton, a rise of 36.36% [1]. - **Zinc**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **Copper**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 40 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [6]. - **Aluminum**: The spread between AL 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 8830 yuan/ton to - 8675 yuan/ton, a decline of 5696.77% [9]. - **Polysilicon**: The spread between the main contract and the first - continuous contract decreased by 525 yuan/ton to 2655 yuan/ton, a decline of 16.51% [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [11]. - **Nickel**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts decreased by 22 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 1500 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data Tin - In October, tin ore imports increased by 2918 tons to 11,632 tons, a rise of 33.49%. SMM refined tin production in October increased by 2580 tons to 16,090 tons, a rise of 53.09% [1]. Zinc - In November, refined zinc production decreased by 2.20 million tons to 59.52 million tons, a decline of 3.56%. In October, refined zinc imports decreased by 0.38 million tons to 1.88 million tons, a decline of 16.94% [4]. Copper - In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.15 million tons to 110.31 million tons, a rise of 1.05%. In October, electrolytic copper imports decreased by 5.22 million tons to 28.21 million tons, a decline of 15.61% [6]. Aluminum - In November, alumina production decreased by 34.6 million tons to 743.94 million tons, a decline of 4.44%. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 10.6 million tons to 363.66 million tons, a decline of 2.82% [8]. Industrial Silicon - National industrial silicon production decreased by 5.05 million tons to 40.17 million tons, a decline of 11.17%. The national operating rate decreased by 3.30 percentage points to 64.82% [9]. Polysilicon - Weekly polysilicon production increased by 0.18 million tons to 2.58 million tons, a rise of 7.50%. Monthly polysilicon production decreased by 1.94 million tons to 11.46 million tons, a decline of 14.48% [10]. Aluminum Alloy - In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 3.7 million tons to 68.20 million tons, a rise of 5.74%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.7 million tons to 30.27 million tons, a rise of 5.84% [11]. Nickel - Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 3453 tons to 33,345 tons, a decline of 9.38%. Refined nickel imports decreased by 18,626 tons to 9741 tons, a decline of 65.66% [13]. Stainless Steel - The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel (43 manufacturers) decreased by 1.30 million tons to 178.70 million tons, a decline of 0.72%. The production of Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel (Qinglong) increased by 0.15 million tons to 42.35 million tons, a rise of 0.36% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3090 tons to 92,350 tons, a rise of 3.35%. Lithium carbonate demand increased by 6490 tons to 133,451 tons, a rise of 5.11% [17]. Inventory Changes Tin - SHEF weekly inventory increased by 206 tons to 6865 tons, a rise of 1.96%. Social inventory increased by 187 tons to 8012 tons, a rise of 2.39% [1]. Zinc - China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 0.83 million tons to 13.60 million tons, a decline of 5.75%. LME inventory increased by 0.24 million tons to 5.8 million tons, a rise of 4.29% [4]. Copper - Domestic social inventory increased by 0.13 million tons to 16.03 million tons, a rise of 0.82%. Bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.14 million tons to 7.75 million tons, a decline of 12.82% [6]. Aluminum - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons to 59.50 million tons, a decline of 0.17%. LME inventory decreased by 0.3 million tons to 52.6 million tons, a decline of 0.47% [8]. Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang inventory increased by 0.34 million tons to 12.38 million tons, a rise of 2.82%. Social inventory increased by 0.80 million tons to 55.80 million tons, a rise of 1.45% [9]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.00 million tons to 29.10 million tons, a rise of 3.56%. Silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.80 million tons to 21.30 million tons, a rise of 9.23% [10]. Aluminum Alloy - The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.03 million tons to 5.53 million tons, a decline of 0.54% [11]. Nickel - SHFE inventory increased by 1726 tons to 42,508 tons, a rise of 4.23%. Social inventory increased by 1499 tons to 26,848 tons, a rise of 2.71% [13]. Stainless Steel - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.04 million tons to 49.20 million tons, a decline of 2.06%. The 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.44 million tons to 29.82 million tons, a decline of 1.44% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In November, lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 19,674 tons to 64,560 tons, a decline of 23.36%. Downstream inventory decreased by 11,261 tons to 42,030 tons, a decline of 21.13% [17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - Energy and chemical industries continue to show weak and volatile trends, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists [8] - **Market News**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending December 5 decreased by 4.779 million barrels, gasoline inventory increased by 6.955 million barrels, and refined oil inventory increased by 1.027 million barrels. The EIA raised the 2025 US oil production forecast by 20,000 barrels to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day and lowered the 2026 forecast by 50,000 barrels to an average of 13.53 million barrels per day [8] - **Main Logic**: Oil prices continue to decline within the range, and the volatile pattern persists due to continuous supply pressure and unclear geopolitical directions. The API data shows seasonal characteristics of crude oil destocking and refined oil inventory build - up under high refinery operating rates. After the significant slowdown of OPEC + net quota growth in the fourth quarter, the production trend is not obvious, and it is difficult to contribute to expected deviations in the short term. Russian oil prices are weakening, and floating storage is rising, resulting in a marginal decrease in effective supply. The long - short game continues, and the market is viewed as volatile [8] - **Outlook**: The expected oversupply pattern in fundamentals continues, and geopolitical expectations fluctuate. The market is expected to remain volatile [8] Asphalt - **View**: Demand expectations deteriorate, and asphalt futures prices decline in a volatile manner [10] - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and there is still a probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. Oil prices fell from high levels. The market sentiment was poor, and black varieties declined sharply. After the futures pricing returned to Shandong spot, the focus is on Shandong spot price changes. Shandong spot prices have fallen to around 2,900 yuan, and the high valuation of asphalt continues to be revised down. The supply - demand situation of asphalt is weak, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply shortage problem has been resolved, and the pricing weight of asphalt futures prices has returned to Shandong. Under the background of negative growth in transportation fixed - asset investment, the inventory build - up pressure of asphalt is still high. Currently, the valuation of asphalt relative to fuel oil is normal, but it is still high relative to crude oil, rebar, and low - sulfur fuel oil, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline [10] - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase in warehouse receipts [10] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The support for high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is insufficient [10] - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and there is still a probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. The near - term conflict between Russia and Ukraine is ongoing, but a far - end agreement is still expected. The decline of crude oil from high levels led to the decline of high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil, namely the Russia - Ukraine conflict, refinery purchases, and the Palestine - Israel conflict, are currently weak. Especially, Saudi Arabia recently announced that it will purchase Russian LNG, reducing the expected demand for Saudi fuel oil power generation next summer. In the off - season, refinery operating rates have dropped significantly, and refinery processing demand is weak. The US currently uses gas oil feedstock to replace residue feedstock, and it is the off - season for power generation in the Middle East. Fuel oil demand is still weak [10] - **Outlook**: The impact of geopolitical escalation on prices is destined to be short - term. Pay attention to changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation [10] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil [10] - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. The recent strengthening of natural gas has boosted the demand expectations of low - sulfur fuel oil, supporting the refined oil cracking spread and the oil - gas substitution effect. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong main product attributes and is supported. However, low - sulfur fuel oil faces negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Its valuation is low and is expected to follow the changes of crude oil. On the fundamental side, the supply pressure of domestic refined oil has increased significantly, and the pressure of reducing oil and increasing chemicals will probably be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil faces a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The unexpected maintenance of the Kuwait Azur refinery in the fourth quarter and the unstable operation of the Dangote refinery have led to an unexpected decline in low - sulfur fuel oil supply, promoting the recovery of its valuation [10][11] - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is subject to green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand space, but its current valuation is low and it will follow the fluctuations of crude oil [11] PX - **View**: Cost support is weak, and general market sentiment drags down PX prices [12] - **Main Logic**: The sharp decline of international oil prices and the partial return of geopolitical premium due to the expected Russia - Ukraine peace talks have led to the collapse of cost support. PX has also been in a callback pattern recently. The general performance of commodity sentiment during the day has further deepened the decline of PX. Currently, there is no obvious change in the PX supply - demand pattern. The supply remains at a high level, and the polyester load on the demand side still remains at a high level, providing support for PX demand. The short - term PX profitability can still be maintained, and the price will fluctuate [12] - **Outlook**: PX will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term under the influence of expectations and market sentiment. The profit support will increase, and the PXN is expected to be consolidated in the range of [260, 300] [12] PTA - **View**: Upstream cost support is insufficient, prices follow the decline, and the basis is relatively strong [12] - **Main Logic**: The collapse of upstream cost support, the decline of international oil prices in a volatile manner, and the general market sentiment of chemicals have led to a significant decline in the price of PTA following the decline of PX. With the large decline of the upstream, the PTA spot processing fee has been passively repaired. The supply - demand pattern remains relatively tight in the short term, and the basis is relatively strong. The short - term price will mainly fluctuate following the cost [12] - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate and consolidate following the cost, the processing fee will remain within a certain range, and the expansion space is limited. In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long TA02 and shorting PF02. Go long on the TA05 contract at the range of 4,600 - 4,700 yuan [12] Pure Benzene - **View**: The price of pure benzene fluctuates between reality and expectations [12] - **Main Logic**: Recently, the price of pure benzene has been fluctuating, and the long - short game is centered around the reality and expectations of the fundamentals. In reality, a large number of imported pure benzene has arrived at ports recently, and port inventories have rapidly accumulated. There may be storage capacity pressure in the middle and late months. Downstream phenol is clearing inventories at the end of the year, and profits are deteriorating. The production cut of caprolactam has been implemented, and the pressure on pure benzene is still being realized. In terms of expectations, the fundamentals of pure benzene may improve marginally from the first quarter of 2026. Imports will shrink, and some styrene plants will resume production. The inflection point of pure benzene inventory is approaching. Recently, pay attention to the US - Venezuela situation, the Central Economic Work Conference, the realization of port inventory build - up, and the liquidity problem of styrene [12][14] Styrene - **View**: The cancellation of maintenance and the news of inventory overflow in South Korea lead to a weak and volatile styrene market [15] - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the styrene futures market mainly trades around the liquidity problem. After the destocking of styrene port inventories, the available circulation volume is not abundant, and the short - covering in the paper market has brought a relatively strong market. The liquidity problem may continue in December, supporting the futures market. Recently, after the increase in styrene prices, the profits of downstream PS and ABS have been compressed, and both are currently in a slight loss state, but no production cut has been heard yet. Looking forward to the first quarter of 2026, the pattern of pure benzene will improve quarter - on - quarter, supporting styrene. Styrene will enter the seasonal inventory build - up period with a relatively high inventory starting point, but the current raw material inventory of downstream enterprises is low. Pay attention to the restocking at the beginning of the year due to the improvement of market sentiment [15] - **Outlook**: In 2026Q1, pure benzene pattern improvement supports styrene, but high starting inventory and seasonal accumulation need attention. Downstream low raw material inventory may bring early - year restocking [15] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **View**: Pay attention to whether the new supply reduction on the supply side can be realized [16] - **Main Logic**: The price of ethylene glycol has been in a downward trend in a volatile manner again today. The large arrival of goods at the main ports has led to continuous inventory build - up at ports, the spot circulation is abundant, coupled with the poor performance of upstream costs and the cold market sentiment, ethylene glycol has continuously hit new lows this year during the session. However, in the late session, due to the news of some new planned out - of - plan maintenance, the supply has become slightly loose, and some short - sellers have shifted their positions, resulting in a certain degree of stop - falling rebound in the price. In the short term, as the price has dropped to a low level, there is new supply reduction on the supply side, and the market sentiment can be moderately restored. In addition, as the delivery period approaches, the futures market will gradually limit positions. It is expected that ethylene glycol will be in a low - level volatile state in the short term, and pay attention to the changes of other plants in the future [16][17] - **Outlook**: The long - term inventory build - up pressure is large, and the price will maintain a wide - range volatile operation in the low - level range. Operate the EG reverse spread position in the range of [-75, -95] [19] Polyester Staple Fiber - **View**: The price is dragged down by the cost of ethylene glycol, and the processing fee is under pressure [21] - **Main Logic**: The adjustment of upstream polyester raw material prices has led to a decline in the price of polyester staple fiber following the cost. The variables in the supply - demand pattern of polyester staple fiber itself are limited. The current price is relatively low, and there is still bottom support on the cost side in the short term. It is expected that under the game of multiple factors, the price of polyester staple fiber may be relatively resistant to decline in the near future [21][22] - **Outlook**: The price of polyester staple fiber will fluctuate following the upstream, the processing fee is expected to be compressed, and you can try to go long on TA and short on PF with a light position [22] Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: Yisheng lowers the basis, and the trading volume increases significantly [23] - **Main Logic**: The weak adjustment of upstream raw material prices has led to insufficient cost support for polyester bottle chips. Coupled with Yisheng's reduction of the basis during the session, the trading volume of the polyester bottle chip market has increased significantly during the day. It is expected that in the short term, the price will fluctuate following the upstream cost, and there is no obvious directional guidance [23] - **Outlook**: The absolute value will follow the fluctuations of raw materials, and the support below the processing fee will generally increase [24] Methanol - **View**: The expected high coastal unloading volume, and the short - term support of the inland supply - demand situation lead to a volatile and consolidating methanol market [26] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, methanol was generally weak. The mainstream intended price of methanol in northern Inner Mongolia was in the range of 1,960 - 2,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's average price. The inland market showed regional adjustments. In the North China region, the upstream supply was abundant, and there was still a demand for shipment, so enterprises actively reduced prices to promote sales. The downstream procurement in East China was relatively firm. On December 3, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.3494 million tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons (-1.03%) compared with the previous data. After the decline of the port spot price, the flow of goods from Jiangsu to southern Shandong has gradually increased, and the near - term basis along the coast has strengthened slightly. In the short term, the near - term market is still restricted by factors such as high inventory, concentrated import arrivals, and the expected shutdown of Ningbo MTO [26] - **Outlook**: Viewed as volatile and consolidating in the short term [26][27] Urea - **View**: The new order transactions have improved, and the market fluctuates and consolidates [27] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, the daily output of urea on the supply side remained at around 200,000 tons, at a relatively high level. On the demand side, there is support from the progress of off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export containerization. After the decline of the spot price, the new order transactions have improved, but at this time, the cost support of coal is insufficient, and the market is in a stalemate [27] - **Outlook**: The daily output on the fundamental supply side is still high, and the demand is moderately weak. Currently, the main factors to consider are the resistance of the现货 market to high prices and the lack of strong fundamental support in the market, which suppress the upward movement of the market. If there is no effective positive support in the near future, the price may still decline slightly after the stalemate. Therefore, it is believed that urea will fluctuate and consolidate in a narrow range. Pay attention to the inventory reduction of enterprises, the progress of off - season storage, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants [27] LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The decline of oil prices leads to a weak and volatile LLDPE market [31] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, the LLDPE futures contract was weak and volatile. First, oil prices declined within the range, the supply pressure continued to show, and the volatile pattern continued under the unclear geopolitical direction. Bloomberg survey data shows that OPEC's production decreased slightly by 10,000 barrels per day in November. After the significant slowdown of the net quota growth in the fourth quarter, the production trend is not obvious, and it is difficult to contribute to expected deviations in the short term. Russian oil prices are weakening, and floating storage is rising, resulting in a marginal decrease in effective supply. The long - short game continues, and the market is viewed as volatile. The weak coal price still drags down LLDPE. Second, the fundamental support of LLDPE itself is still limited. The upstream and middle - stream enterprises still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, which will still suppress the upward space of the price. In the short term, the profit of coal - based production has been repaired, the support of maintenance is limited, and the production pressure is still large under the increasing production capacity. Third, the short - term trading volume of downstream enterprises is cautiously expected, and the sustainability of the restocking demand driven by the low absolute price is limited. Currently, the overall demand for LLDPE is gradually entering the off - season, and the purchasing mentality is still cautious [31] - **Outlook**: Weak and volatile in the short term [31] PP - **View**: The short - term support of maintenance is still limited, and PP declines in a volatile manner [32] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, the PP futures contract declined in a volatile manner. First, oil prices declined within the range, the supply pressure continued to show, and the volatile pattern continued under the unclear geopolitical direction. Bloomberg survey data shows that OPEC's production decreased slightly by 10,000 barrels per day in November. After the significant slowdown of the net quota growth in the fourth quarter, the production trend is not obvious, and it is difficult to contribute to expected deviations in the short term. Russian oil prices are weakening, and floating storage is rising, resulting in a marginal decrease in effective supply. The long - short game continues, and the market is viewed as volatile. Second, the weak coal price offsets the strength of propane, and the PDH profit is still under pressure in the short term. The valuation support of the gas - based production has increased, but the profit of coal - based refineries has been repaired under the weak coal price, and the overall increase in maintenance is still limited. Third, it is the off - season for PP downstream, and the purchasing mentality is cautious. The supply - demand pattern of PP is still under pressure [32] - **Outlook**: Weak and volatile in the short term, and the focus is still on maintenance [32][34] PL (Propylene) - **View**: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, and PL fluctuates [32] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, the PL futures contract fluctuated. On the spot side, the inventory of propylene enterprises was controllable, and the quotations remained