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泰恩康首次覆盖报告:拐点将至,CKBA打开成长空间
Orient Securities· 2025-04-10 10:23
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a target price of 21.06 CNY based on a 54 times P/E ratio for 2025 [3][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience rapid progress in its core business or key products over the next 1-2 years, with projected earnings per share of 0.26, 0.39, and 0.62 CNY for 2024-2026 [3]. - The company has a solid foundation as a comprehensive pharmaceutical enterprise, having established a research and development platform and acquired a pipeline of high-potential products [10][15]. - The treatment for vitiligo is scarce, and the company's CKBA product is anticipated to stand out in the market due to its unique mechanism and promising clinical trial results [10][50]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 783 million CNY, with a projected decline to 757 million CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 951 million CNY in 2025 and 1,214 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 25.7% and 27.6% respectively [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 175 million CNY in 2022 to 111 million CNY in 2024, before increasing to 165 million CNY in 2025 and 262 million CNY in 2026 [5]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 58.2% in 2022 to 69.7% in 2026, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5]. Business Overview - The company started as an agent for gastrointestinal and ophthalmic medications and has gradually expanded into various fields, establishing a robust R&D platform since 2015 [10][15]. - The core business segments include gastrointestinal medications, sexual health products, and ophthalmic drugs, with stable growth in revenue from these areas [10][23]. - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment, leading to the development of important products such as dapoxetine and a rich pipeline of innovative drugs [32]. Market Opportunity - The prevalence of vitiligo is high, with over 12.33 million patients in China, and the demand for effective treatments is unmet, creating a significant market opportunity for CKBA [10][37]. - The competitive landscape for vitiligo treatments is favorable, with CKBA being the only non-JAK inhibitor drug in the domestic pipeline, currently in Phase II clinical trials [50][51].
泰恩康(301263):拐点将至 CKBA打开成长空间
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-10 09:24
Group 1 - The company, established in 1999 and listed on the Growth Enterprise Market in 2022, has developed a comprehensive pharmaceutical business starting from agency operations and has built a strong R&D platform through self-construction and acquisitions [1] - The main business segments include gastrointestinal, sexual health, and ophthalmic medications, with overall revenue and profit growth slowing, but core business continuing to grow [1] - Significant increases in R&D investment have been noted, leading to the development of key products such as Dapoxetine Hydrochloride Tablets, along with a rich pipeline of potential products [1] Group 2 - The treatment for vitiligo is scarce, with a high prevalence and strong patient treatment willingness, as evidenced by 12.33 million patients in China in 2021 [2] - The main treatment options currently available include hormones and topical calcineurin inhibitors, but there is a significant unmet clinical need as no new drugs have been approved domestically [2] - CKBA is the only non-JAK inhibitor drug in development for vitiligo, with promising results from its Phase II clinical trials and plans to expand into other indications such as psoriasis and atopic dermatitis [2] Group 3 - The core business includes gastrointestinal medications, with the company planning to shift to self-production to overcome limitations and achieve rapid growth [3] - In the sexual health segment, Dapoxetine Hydrochloride Tablets have become a leading brand, with additional products in development that are expected to drive growth [3] - The ophthalmic segment shows stable sales with growth potential, particularly with the upcoming application for a new drug for presbyopia, which could be the first approved in the domestic market [3] - The company forecasts earnings per share of 0.26, 0.39, and 0.62 yuan for 2024-2026, respectively, and sets a target price of 21.06 yuan based on a 54 times P/E ratio for 2025 [3]