Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [11] Core Insights - The policy goal of stabilizing the market has somewhat boosted market expectations, but since April, marginal downward pressure has increased, leading to a higher probability of policy easing. Future easing is merely a matter of timing [4][8] - The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have already passed, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties. Current stock positions are not far from the bottom, providing room for a rebound in cyclical sectors [4] - Emphasis is placed on leading real estate companies with low inventory, good locations, and strong product capabilities, as well as leading brokerage firms, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management companies with stable cash flows [4] Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 2.76% this week, with an excess return of -1.01% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 24th out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index is down 0.45%, with an excess return of -3.50%, ranking 29th [5][14] - The real estate sector performed poorly this week, with declines primarily in development and property management stocks, while rental stocks showed mixed results [5] Policy Developments - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to prevent and resolve risks in key areas and to conduct urban renewal with high quality. Local governments are encouraged to manage debt risks and enhance the attractiveness of domestic capital markets [6][18] - Shanghai is accelerating the renovation of "two old and one village," aiming to complete the renovation of approximately 380,000 square meters of old housing this year [6][18] Sales Data - New home and second-hand home registrations in sample cities remain at low levels. The new home transaction area in 37 cities decreased by 19.1% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions decreased by 2.3% [7][20] - Year-to-date, the cumulative transaction area for new homes in 37 cities is down 4.9%, while second-hand homes are up 15.3% [7][20]

2025.04. 23 本文字数：2182，阅读时长大约4分钟 导读 ： 上海正在加快推进"两旧一村"改造，既体现政府改善民生的决心，也大大增强了楼市信心。 作者 | 第一财经 马一凡 上海楼市正在持续升温。 4月23日，上海市统计局公布2025年第一季度上海市国民经济运行情况以及房地产开发、经营基本情 况。 数据显示，上海全市经济起步平稳、高质量发展扎实推进。一季度上海房地产业开发投资比去年同期 增长了5.1%；商品房施工面积同比增长7.3%，其中住宅施工面积同比增长9.5%；住宅类商品房销售 面积达到329.78万平方米，同比增长2.2%。 二季度楼市仍旧维持高热度，截至目前，结合网上房地产网站披露数据统计，上海4月份二手房网签 量已突破1.5万套大关，周末单日成交屡破千套，全月有望冲击2万套月度成交线。 与此同时，新房市场热度不减，浦东新区翡云悦府认购率达到412%，创年内新高，多个改善型楼盘 去化表现抢眼。 今年上海三批次土地集中出让已结束，土地市场溢价率攀升至30%，开发商信心显著增强。 尽管近期并无新政加码，但在二手房交易活跃度支撑及"两旧一村"改造等政策利好推动下，上海楼市 韧性凸显，价格筑底信 ...