华润置地上海高端产品战略遭遇阵痛。 自2023年回归上海楼市以来，华润置地在沪上房地产市场留下了浓墨重彩的印记。一边与老牌央企金茂在多个核心板块同场竞 技，一边在同一板块同时推售多个项目，形成自我竞争的局面。 中指研究院数据显示，2025年1-10月，华润置地以341.7亿元销售金额排名上海第三，仅次于保利发展（600048）与招商蛇口 （001979），超过中海地产。与此同时，2025年1-7月，华润置地上海销售额占集团总销售额约20%。考虑到华润置地下半年在 上海加大高端项目推盘力度（如外滩瑞府、澐启滨江、翡云悦府等），业内预测三季度华润置地上海销售占比集团整体应该保 持原有水平甚至略有提升。 然而，进入10月份之后，华润置地在上海的销售去化出现放缓迹象。这家央企如何打破在上海楼市高端市场困局，正成为同行 关注的焦点。 高端项目去化承压 2025年，华润置地战略明显向上海倾斜。先是联手越秀地产、中能建斩获新杨思板块"地王"，又于8月斥资244.7亿元收购上海后 滩+余庆里地块包。下半年，随着外滩瑞府、澐启滨江的开盘，加上黄浦区士林润园加推房源，华润置地今年三、四季度在上海 的销售收入理应有所提升。 不过， ...

10月份，全国12个重点城市楼市继续保持韧性，"百亿大盘"的含金量仍在增加。 据中指研究院统计，1~10月，上海TOP10项目累计销售额合计1065.7亿元，不仅较1~9月（963.5亿元）增长了超100亿元，还与第二名深圳（TOP10项目销售 合计金额430.4亿元）拉开600亿元以上的差距。 值得注意的是，全部位于上海的4个"百亿大盘"——"上海壹号院""金陵华庭""翡云悦府"和"前滩公馆"仍然保持强劲销售势头，10个月累计销售额分别达到 217.8亿元、186.6亿元、139.8亿元和108.1亿元；与前9个月相比，金陵华庭单月销售额超50亿元，翡云悦府超17亿元。 前10个月，12个重点城市累计销售额超50亿元的项目达到18个，比前9个月增加4个。其中，上海10个、深圳4个、广州2个、杭州1个、成都1个。 前10个月，二线城市中的杭州TOP10项目累计销售额为430.1亿元，与深圳一同进入"第二梯队"；成都TOP10项目合计销售额约300.2亿元和广州（326.1亿 元）位列"第三梯队"；而天津、南京、重庆（中心城区）、长沙、郑州等热点城市TOP10合计销售额均未能突破150亿元。 （按第一名金额排序 ...

Core Viewpoint - The luxury real estate market in Shanghai is experiencing a cooling trend, with a significant slowdown in sales and changing consumer behavior due to various factors including demand exhaustion, increased supply, and a shift in investment focus towards the stock market [3][5][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - The luxury project Feiyun Yufu launched 32 units at a starting price of 17.27 million, with an average price exceeding 110,000 per square meter, but only half of the units were sold in the latest release [1]. - Another luxury project, Jinmao Puyuan, had a subscription rate of approximately 102% for its second batch, with over 80 units sold, contrasting with its first batch that sold out in 26 minutes [3]. - Many luxury projects in Shanghai are seeing sales rates below 100%, with some popular developments achieving a maximum sales rate of around 80% and a minimum of 50% [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The luxury market is facing a supply influx, with numerous projects being launched simultaneously, leading to a broader selection for buyers and extended decision-making periods [3][5]. - The high transaction volume in the previous year has led to demand exhaustion, reducing current market momentum [3][5]. - The shift of high-net-worth individuals' investment from real estate to the stock market is contributing to the observed market slowdown [3][5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - State-owned enterprises are increasingly dominating the luxury market in Shanghai, with 80% of land transactions in 2025 being acquired by these entities [5][7]. - The competitive strategies among luxury developers are intensifying, with price wars emerging as companies like Jinmao and China Resources engage in competitive pricing to attract buyers [9][11]. - The focus on product differentiation is becoming crucial, as buyers are now more concerned with the actual presentation of properties, leading to increased investment in product quality by developers [13][15]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior - The luxury buyer demographic is exhibiting a trend towards slower decision-making, influenced by the variety of options available and the current market conditions [9][16]. - The presence of ample second-hand housing options is affecting the purchasing decisions of potential buyers, leading to a cautious approach in the luxury segment [16]. - The market for suburban new developments remains robust, indicating that demand for well-positioned properties still exists despite the overall slowdown in the luxury segment [16].

Core Viewpoint - The luxury real estate market in Shanghai is experiencing a slowdown, with a significant increase in supply and changing consumer behavior impacting sales performance [3][4][14]. Group 1: Market Performance - The luxury project Feiyun Yuefu launched 32 units with a starting price of 17.27 million, averaging over 110,000 per square meter [1]. - The project Jinmao Puyuan had a subscription rate of approximately 102% during its recent launch, but only about 80 units were sold out of 111 [2]. - Sales absorption rates for various luxury projects in Shanghai are below 100%, with some popular developments achieving rates between 50% and 80% [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The luxury market is facing a demand pullback due to previous high transaction volumes that exhausted potential buyers [3]. - A surge in luxury project launches has diversified buyer options, leading to longer decision-making periods [3][14]. - High-net-worth individuals are reallocating funds from the luxury real estate market to the stock market, further dampening demand [3][14]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - State-owned enterprises are increasingly dominating the Shanghai real estate market, acquiring 80% of land parcels sold in 2025, with significant investments in urban renewal projects [5][6]. - The competitive strategies among luxury developers are intensifying, with price wars emerging between projects like Jinmao Puyuan and Huayun Wai Tan [9]. - Developers are focusing on product differentiation to attract buyers, leading to a trend of increased investment in property features [11][13]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior - Buyers are exhibiting a "slow decision-making" trend due to the abundance of choices and the current market conditions [7][14]. - The second-hand housing market's price adjustments are causing potential buyers to hesitate, impacting the luxury segment's sales [14][15]. - Despite the slowdown in the luxury segment, suburban projects are still attracting interest, indicating a shift in buyer preferences [15].

Core Insights - In the first nine months of 2025, the total sales of the top 10 projects in 12 key cities in China showed a stable performance, with Shanghai leading significantly [1] - Shanghai's top 10 projects achieved a cumulative sales amount of 963.5 billion yuan, nearly unchanged from 972 billion yuan in the same period of 2024, maintaining a lead over Shenzhen and Hangzhou by over 550 billion yuan [1] - The number of "billion-dollar projects" increased by three in September, all located in Shanghai, bringing the total to four nationwide [1] Sales Performance - Shanghai's top 10 projects: 963.5 billion yuan, compared to Shenzhen's 408.2 billion yuan and Hangzhou's 409.6 billion yuan [1] - Chengdu's top 10 projects reached approximately 286 billion yuan, closely following Guangzhou's 287.7 billion yuan [1] - Other cities like Nanjing, Tianjin, Changsha, and Wuhan did not exceed 200 billion yuan in total sales for their top 10 projects [1] Billion-Dollar Projects - The four "billion-dollar projects" in Shanghai are: - Shanghai Yihua Courtyard: 214.7 billion yuan - Jinling Huating: 133.4 billion yuan - Feiyun Yuefu: 122.7 billion yuan - Qiantan Gongguan: 105.9 billion yuan [1] - A total of 14 projects across the 12 cities exceeded 50 billion yuan in sales, with Shanghai contributing 10 of these projects [1]

Core Insights - Shanghai's real estate market is experiencing a supply peak following the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with 8 new projects releasing a total of 874 units across various popular districts [1][4]. Group 1: High-End Market - Two major projects from China Resources are performing exceptionally well, with the Bund Ruifu in Hongkou releasing 146 units at an average price of 148,300 CNY per square meter, showing a slight increase from the previous phase [3]. - The second phase of Feiyun Yuefu in Pudong focuses on larger units, offering 32 units of approximately 170 square meters at an average price of 113,670 CNY per square meter, marking an increase of nearly 10,000 CNY per square meter, or 8.8% [3]. Group 2: Mid-Range Market - The mid-range improvement sector is showing a mild upward trend, with Minhang's Xiangyu Tianyu launching 66 units at an average price of 70,300 CNY per square meter, a slight increase of 400 CNY per square meter or about 0.57% from the initial launch [3]. - In contrast, the Zhonghuan Zhidi Center in Putuo is one of the few projects with a slight price drop, offering 86 units at an average price of 67,477 CNY per square meter, providing more flexible options for budget-conscious buyers [3]. Group 3: Low-Density Products - The current supply features a notable presence of low-density products, with three projects introducing such units, including Poly Xijiao and Huxu Ling Villa, which launched 73 units at an average price of 64,394 CNY per square meter [4]. - In the Jiading district, Times City continues to release 58 units, covering both apartments and low-density products at an average price of 56,623 CNY per square meter, while Zhaoshang Linyu Huatan offers 89 units at an average price of 55,776 CNY per square meter [4]. Group 4: Market Trends - The Shanghai new housing market is forming a clear pattern where high-end improvements lead growth, with the new projects expected to sustain the sales momentum observed during the National Day holiday [4]. - According to data from the China Index Academy, September saw new residential sales in Shanghai reach 970,000 square meters, a month-on-month increase of 23% and a year-on-year increase of 16% [4].

Core Viewpoint - The luxury housing market in Shanghai is showing resilience, with significant sales activity despite overall market challenges, driven by new policies and high-demand projects [3][11]. Market Performance - In September, Shanghai's total housing transactions reached 2.07 million square meters, marking an 8% month-on-month increase and a 24% year-on-year increase [3]. - New housing sales accounted for 550,000 square meters, up 28% month-on-month and 14% year-on-year, while second-hand housing transactions totaled 18,000 units, reflecting a 3% month-on-month increase and a 27% year-on-year increase [3]. - The average subscription ratio for new projects in September was 0.75, higher than the year-to-date average of 0.71, indicating increased market activity following policy adjustments [8]. Luxury Segment Insights - High-end residential properties are becoming a significant support for the market, with luxury projects making up half of the top ten sales in September [8]. - The project "嘉里金陵华庭" recorded over 40,000 square meters in sales, with 107 units sold, showcasing strong market acceptance [8]. - The "10万+" price segment is gaining traction, with seven such projects recently launched [9]. Policy Impact - The "沪六条" policy adjustments have positively influenced market sentiment, leading to a 12% increase in daily second-hand housing transactions post-implementation [12]. - The first week after the policy saw an 8.5% increase in second-hand transactions, indicating immediate market responsiveness [12]. Sales Dynamics - The market is experiencing a divergence, with some projects achieving high sales rates while others struggle, as seen in the "翎翠滨江" project with a net signing rate of only 12.6% [7][8]. - Developers are increasing supply to boost performance, focusing on mid-to-high-end products priced above 50,000 yuan per square meter [9][10]. Buyer Behavior - The average transaction price for new units is between 11 million and 12 million yuan, reflecting the ongoing demand for high-quality housing [10]. - Buyers are becoming more strategic, often negotiating prices based on market conditions, which suggests a stable pricing environment with limited potential for significant price drops [15].

Core Insights - The luxury housing market in Shanghai is experiencing a strong performance, with properties selling out quickly, particularly in the Huangpu District, indicating high market demand and confidence [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The first batch of units at Kerry Jinling Huating Phase II sold out completely, with 120 units attracting 227 interested buyers, resulting in a total sales amount of 9.843 billion yuan in a single day [1] - The average selling price for the units in this project was 205,000 yuan per square meter, with the highest recorded price reaching 326,800 yuan per square meter for a duplex unit [1] - The project had a subscription rate of 190%, with 228 interested buyers, indicating strong demand even before the official sale [1][2] Group 2: Comparative Sales Data - Another luxury project, Shanghai One, also located in Huangpu, sold 66 units in just one hour during its fifth batch of sales, generating 4.8 billion yuan in sales [2] - Cumulatively, the Shanghai One project has achieved over 24 billion yuan in sales across five openings [2] Group 3: Policy Impact - Recent policy optimizations in Shanghai, including the "Six New Policies," have positively influenced the real estate market, leading to increased sales across various projects [3][4] - Several new projects have also achieved quick sales, with properties like Poly Haishangyin and Jinmao Tangqian selling out on the same day they were launched [3][4] Group 4: Additional Project Highlights - The Feiyun Yuefu project in Pudong sold 80 units in one day, with the second phase selling out in just 18 minutes [4] - The招商·林屿湖畔 project also achieved a successful launch, selling 130 units on its first day, generating approximately 920 million yuan in sales [4]

Core Insights - The new policy implemented in Shanghai aims to stimulate the real estate market by relaxing housing purchase restrictions and adjusting mortgage rates, leading to a significant increase in buyer activity and market confidence [1][10]. Policy Adjustments - The Shanghai government announced six key adjustments to real estate policies, including changes to housing purchase limits, public housing funds, housing loans, and tax measures, which took effect on August 26 [1]. - The new policy allows families to purchase unlimited properties in outer ring areas and treats single individuals as families for purchasing purposes [4]. Market Response - Following the policy changes, there was a notable surge in property viewings and inquiries, with some new developments reporting a 20% increase in viewings attributed to the new policy [2][5]. - In the first weekend after the policy was enacted, new home sales in areas like Qingpu saw rapid activity, with many units sold out quickly [2][9]. Mortgage Rate Adjustments - The mortgage rate for existing loans was adjusted, with rates for second homes being converted to first-home rates, resulting in a decrease from 3.45% to 3.36%, a reduction of 9 basis points [1]. - Banks such as China Construction Bank and Beijing Bank have begun processes to adjust existing mortgage rates for clients [1]. Buyer Demographics - The new policy has particularly benefited non-local families who can now purchase homes after one year of social security contributions, as well as local residents who previously faced purchase restrictions [4]. - Buyers reported significant reductions in down payment pressures, with one buyer noting a decrease of nearly 200,000 yuan in upfront costs due to the ability to use public housing funds [4]. Market Trends - The second-hand housing market also experienced increased activity, with agents reporting a 20% rise in viewing numbers and a shift in seller attitudes, leading to price adjustments to attract buyers [6][7]. - The overall sentiment in the market is cautiously optimistic, with expectations that the policy will lead to a more sustained recovery in the coming months [8][10].

2025.04. 23 本文字数：2182，阅读时长大约4分钟 导读 ： 上海正在加快推进"两旧一村"改造，既体现政府改善民生的决心，也大大增强了楼市信心。 作者 | 第一财经 马一凡 上海楼市正在持续升温。 4月23日，上海市统计局公布2025年第一季度上海市国民经济运行情况以及房地产开发、经营基本情 况。 数据显示，上海全市经济起步平稳、高质量发展扎实推进。一季度上海房地产业开发投资比去年同期 增长了5.1%；商品房施工面积同比增长7.3%，其中住宅施工面积同比增长9.5%；住宅类商品房销售 面积达到329.78万平方米，同比增长2.2%。 二季度楼市仍旧维持高热度，截至目前，结合网上房地产网站披露数据统计，上海4月份二手房网签 量已突破1.5万套大关，周末单日成交屡破千套，全月有望冲击2万套月度成交线。 与此同时，新房市场热度不减，浦东新区翡云悦府认购率达到412%，创年内新高，多个改善型楼盘 去化表现抢眼。 今年上海三批次土地集中出让已结束，土地市场溢价率攀升至30%，开发商信心显著增强。 尽管近期并无新政加码，但在二手房交易活跃度支撑及"两旧一村"改造等政策利好推动下，上海楼市 韧性凸显，价格筑底信 ...