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美国农业部早盘提示-20250815
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 02:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, after adjustment, there will be new buying opportunities, and it is bullish in the medium to long term [1][2] - For the two - meal sector, maintain a bullish view on the medium - term trend of double meals and wait for new buying opportunities after the correction [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Sector 3.1.1 Market Review - On August 14, the exchange cooled down the risk of the vegetable oil sector. The main contract Y2601 of soybean oil closed at 8,520 yuan/ton, down 0.65% day - on - day by closing price, with a daily reduction of 3,966 lots; the secondary main contract Y2605 closed at 8,078 yuan/ton, down 0.49% day - on - day by closing price, with a daily increase of 2,202 lots. Similar price and position changes occurred in palm oil and rapeseed oil contracts [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - On August 13, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange issued a risk warning letter for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal [1] - The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report was generally bullish, with the soybean planting area unexpectedly lowered. The Argentine and Brazilian soybean yields also changed [1] - The US continued to modify the implementation of ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, suspending the 24% tariff for 90 days from August 12, 2025, while retaining the remaining 10% [1] - On August 12, China's Ministry of Commerce preliminarily determined that imported rapeseed from Canada was dumped, and if anti - dumping was ruled, the import cost of Canadian rapeseed would increase significantly [1] - Malaysia's July supply - demand report was generally bullish, with export growth exceeding expectations and production growth lower than expected [1] - As of the end of the 32nd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils decreased week - on - week, with different trends in soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil inventories [2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US agricultural report and China - Canada anti - dumping measures led to a strong rebound in US soybeans, and the Malaysian palm oil futures price remained strong. Domestically, policies and macro - factors were favorable, and the vegetable oil sector strengthened. Although the inventory of the three major oils increased, there were reasons for the soybean oil inventory to decrease in the future, and the overall view was that the oils were bullish in the medium to long term after adjustment [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, wait for new buying opportunities after the correction. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [2] 3.2 Two - Meal Sector 3.2.1 Market Review - On August 14, the exchange cooled down the risk of the two - meal sector. The main contract M2601 of soybean meal closed at 3,157 yuan/ton, down 0.19% day - on - day by closing price, with a daily increase of 54,894 lots; the main contract RM2601 of rapeseed meal closed at 2,606 yuan/ton, down 3.05% day - on - day by closing price, with a daily reduction of 26,613 lots [3] 3.2.2 Important Information - Similar to the vegetable oil sector, including the risk warning letter from Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, China - Canada anti - dumping measures, the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, export inspection data, crop condition data, and domestic inventory data [3][4] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US agricultural report led to a sharp rise in US soybeans, and the ICE rapeseed price dropped due to China - Canada anti - dumping. Domestically, the expected increase in the import cost of Canadian rapeseed and the risk warning letter from Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange affected the market. Overall, the supply of external oilseeds tightened, and the two - meal sector was likely to continue to rise strongly [3][4] 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, be bullish on the medium - term trend of double meals and wait for new buying opportunities after the correction. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [4]