文/ 徐帅 在影响2025经济的诸多因素当中，房地产是 一 个特别重要的 存在 ，作为国民经济的重要支柱产 业，其产业链长，关联度高，不仅直接牵动着投资规模与结构，更关乎家庭财富预期以及宏观经济的 整体韧性。 房地产与 提振消费之间究竟有着怎么样的内在逻辑和联动机制？2026年 ， 房地产市场会呈现怎样 的发展态势？如何能够更好地平衡房地产调控和释放消费潜力，实现这两者之间的良性互动和协同发 展？ 12月7日，由联办集团、和讯共同主办、财经中国会承办的财经中国2025年会暨第23届财经风云榜 在北京圆满落幕。 在 "聊一波年度对话 房地产与提振消费"环节中，联办总干事王波明与住建部原 副部长仇保兴、清华大学中国经济思想与实践研究院院长李稻葵、上海交通大学上海高级金融学院教 授朱宁，就 以上问题 展开了深度探讨。 专家们普遍认为，房地产的稳定，已不仅关乎单一行业的兴衰，更是畅通国民经济循环、提振社会总 需求的关键支点 ，当前亟 需 中央政府果断出手，以大规模、创新性的政策扭转市场预期。 01 稳定资产价值和市场预期，才能真正稳固消费 住建部原副部长、国际欧亚科学院院士仇保兴表示，房地产对消费的关系，是很明确的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Xiamen Special Economic Zone Personal Bankruptcy Protection Regulations" marks a significant step in exploring personal bankruptcy systems in China, providing economic and social regeneration opportunities for "honest but unfortunate" debtors, and fostering an innovative and entrepreneurial environment in Xiamen [1][2]. Group 1: Legislative Significance - The regulation is the second local law on personal bankruptcy in China and represents the first legislative practice following the 20th National Congress's call to explore personal bankruptcy systems, highlighting its reform significance and legal value [1]. - The regulation aims to enhance the competitiveness and creativity of business entities in Xiamen, which has a vibrant private economy with 478,700 registered individual businesses, serving as a foundation for healthy economic development [1]. Group 2: Features and Innovations - The regulation features four main innovations: 1. Conceptual innovation emphasizing comprehensive protection, balancing the rights of creditors, debtors, and other stakeholders [2]. 2. Institutional innovation providing diverse solutions, including pre-court debt clearing to save judicial resources and offer more dispute resolution options [2]. 3. Procedural innovation enhancing operational efficiency by optimizing bankruptcy procedures and encouraging restructuring and reconciliation before liquidation [2]. 4. Mechanism innovation establishing a government-court coordination mechanism to address major issues in the implementation of the bankruptcy system [2]. Group 3: Safeguards Against Abuse - The regulation includes a "full-chain prevention and punishment mechanism" to address public concerns about debtors evading repayment obligations, ensuring that debt forgiveness is not guaranteed and does not condone dishonest debtors [3]. - Specific measures include asset investigation, rules for asset disposal, strict conditions for debt forgiveness, increased legal consequences for fraudulent behavior, and improved multi-departmental collaboration to combat debt evasion [3]. - The Xiamen Intermediate People's Court emphasizes its commitment to implementing the regulation effectively, focusing on encouraging innovation, protecting legitimate rights, preventing bankruptcy fraud, and creating a favorable judicial environment [3].

Core Viewpoint - The modification of the "Enterprise Bankruptcy Law" is included in the 2025 legislative work plan, highlighting the need for a comprehensive bankruptcy protection legal system to support a high-level socialist market economy [1][2]. Group 1: Current Situation and Need for Reform - The existing bankruptcy law, established in 2006, is misaligned with current business development and personal debt management needs, leading to increasing calls for personal bankruptcy protection legislation [2]. - The absence of a personal bankruptcy protection system is seen as a bottleneck that limits the effectiveness of the bankruptcy protection legal framework in China, especially for the 1.9 billion business entities, of which 1.3 billion are unincorporated individual businesses and small enterprises [2]. Group 2: Importance of Bankruptcy Protection - Bankruptcy protection law is essential for promoting healthy economic development within a socialist market economy, as bankruptcy is a common phenomenon in market economies [3]. - The bankruptcy law should focus on protecting the rights of both creditors and debtors, ensuring a balance of interests among all parties involved [3][4]. Group 3: Recommendations for Legal System Improvement - Suggestions for enhancing the bankruptcy protection legal system include improving coordination between government and judicial authorities, strengthening the management system, and establishing efficient mechanisms for case handling and execution [5][6]. - The establishment of a robust legal culture surrounding bankruptcy protection is crucial, as outdated views on debt and bankruptcy need to be transformed to align with modern legal standards [6].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of personal bankruptcy protection systems is a significant step towards reshaping societal attitudes towards "failure," providing a framework for individuals to recover from financial setbacks and encouraging a more inclusive approach to economic challenges [1][4]. Group 1: Personal Bankruptcy Protection System - The first personal bankruptcy credit repair certificate in Jiangsu was issued, benefiting a local market vendor who faced financial difficulties due to a business partner's disappearance, highlighting the system's role in restoring credit and social vitality [1]. - Shenzhen is the first city in China to implement personal bankruptcy protection regulations, with nearly a thousand cases resulting in debt forgiveness since 2021, and over 70% of debtors successfully returning to normal life through credit repair [1][2]. - More than 30 local courts in China have accepted personal bankruptcy cases, with a total debt amount exceeding 1.3 billion yuan being waived, indicating a growing acceptance of this system [2]. Group 2: Impact on Society and Economy - The personal bankruptcy protection system is seen as a reconstruction of "responsibility ethics" in the market economy, distinguishing between honest debtors and those who may exploit the system [2][3]. - The system allows debtors to regain opportunities for wealth creation, which in turn protects the interests of creditors by enabling debtors to work towards repayment rather than being permanently hindered by credit loss [3]. - The recent government documents emphasize the importance of establishing a unified and efficient credit repair system, aligning with the personal bankruptcy protection framework to create a clearer boundary between malicious and involuntary credit failures [3]. Group 3: Economic Benefits - In Shenzhen, 43% of personal bankruptcy applicants are small business owners, who have a higher success rate in "second entrepreneurship" compared to the general population, demonstrating the system's positive impact on economic revitalization [4]. - The personal bankruptcy protection system is viewed as a crucial indicator of the maturity of the socialist market economy, fostering an environment that encourages innovation and tolerates failure [4].