strategist Phil Blanado. Phil, you and you and I have had these sort of conversations before. So, I had this chart yesterday going [clears throat] back to 2015 going by the old rule book.Cheap stocks, low valuations, low PE ratios. So, okay, 19, 12, 16, 10, 15, Exon, GE, IBM, and Shell. The ones that had these crazy valuations, Adobe, Amazon, Facebook/ Meta, Netflix, you would never buy those stocks.You would never buy them by the traditional Wall Street handbook in 2015. And yet, if you bought those in 201 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美联储理事米兰：本来希望10月份就结束量化紧缩（QT）。 实施合理力度的监管将允许保持更小规模 的资产负债表。 强烈支持美联储修订银行业监管。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

1、美联储对利率前景的讨论情况。2、美联储对资产负债表的讨论情况。3、美联储官员们对经济形势 的看法，包括关税通胀、就业市场、创历史最长纪录的政府关门事件等。4、美联储对金融市场的看 法，包括储备金。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has faced criticism, necessitating clear and transparent communication regarding changes in bond holdings and policy intentions [1] - The balance sheet serves multiple functions, including regulating bank reserves and supporting monetary policy implementation, and should be adjusted dynamically based on financial system needs [1] - The Fed is nearing the end of a three-year balance sheet reduction plan and is discussing the potential need to restart bond purchases to ensure alignment between bank reserves and system demand [1] Group 2 - There is cautious optimism regarding the U.S. economic outlook, with a significant reduction in uncertainty, although concerns about a slowdown in the labor market are increasing [2] - Inflation is decreasing but remains persistent, particularly in the services sector, and the Fed aims to reduce inflation to 2% while maintaining the credibility of this target [2] - The impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on employment is not yet clear, with no significant reports of job losses attributed to AI, and it is believed that AI investments will not create a bubble similar to the tulip mania [2] - The balance of policy risks is expected to be heavily tilted towards inflation until mid-2025, after which it may begin to shift towards a more balanced state [2]

Core Viewpoint - Communication regarding the balance sheet is crucial according to Daly from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - Daly emphasizes the importance of discussing the balance sheet to ensure transparency and clarity in monetary policy [1]

Group 1 - The White House National Economic Council Director Hassett expressed disappointment regarding the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts, while Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson stated that the Fed has sufficient data to formulate policies [1][2] - On November 7, U.S. stock markets experienced volatility, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.16%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.13%, and the Nasdaq declining by 0.21%. Notably, the Nasdaq index had dropped over 2% during the day before closing down 0.21% [1] - Chinese concept stocks saw a pullback, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling by 0.96%. Individual stocks such as XPeng Motors, Zai Lab, Pony.ai, and Tencent Music experienced declines of over 6%, 5%, 5%, and 4% respectively [1] Group 2 - In the gold market, London gold prices rose, closing above $4000. The U.S. government shutdown, which has lasted for 37 days, has created significant economic concerns, with Hassett indicating that the GDP growth rate for Q4 will be negatively impacted [2] - The Senate Majority Leader John Thune mentioned that negotiations with Democrats to restart the government have stalled, while Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer proposed a new compromise to restart government operations and extend subsidies for the Affordable Care Act by one year [2] - According to the New York Fed's consumer expectations survey, the inflation expectation for the next year decreased from 3.38% to 3.24%, marking the first decline since June [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Tuesday saw short - term weakness and long - term strength in the Treasury bond market. The central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading is expected to inject stable liquidity, boosting bond market sentiment. The positive progress in Sino - US trade talks has reduced market disturbances. The market anticipates that the central bank will mainly purchase medium - and short - term bonds, which may lead to a decline in short - term interest rates and potentially long - term rates as well. However, the potential suppression of long - term rates due to the recovery of risk appetite should be watched out for. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价108.660，环比0%；成交量66835，环比增加933。TF主力收盘价106.030，环比 - 0.01%；成交量50509，环比减少2173。TS主力收盘价102.498，环比 - 0.01%；成交量19329，环比减少5311。TL主力收盘价116.520，环比0.03%；成交量86971，环比减少11856 [2]. 3.2 Futures Spread - TL2512 - 2603价差0.25，环比增加0.01；T12 - TL12价差 - 7.86，环比减少0.03。T2512 - 2603价差0.26，环比减少0.01；TF12 - T12价差 - 2.63，环比不变。TF2512 - 2603价差0.05，环比减少0.01；TS12 - T12价差 - 6.16，环比不变。TS2512 - 2603价差0.04，环比增加0.00；TS12 - TF12价差 - 3.53，环比不变 [2]. 3.3 Futures Position - T主力持仓量240832，环比减少3036；T前20名多头234667，环比增加2353；T前20名空头253814，环比增加2422；T前20名净空仓19147，环比减少1488。TF主力持仓量149798；TF前20名多头139385，环比减少45；TF前20名空头160251，环比增加10；TF前20名净空仓20866，环比增加55。TS主力持仓量70457，环比减少709；TS前20名多头64962，环比减少540；TS前20名空头74541，环比减少8；TS前20名净空仓9579，环比增加532。TL主力持仓量134287，环比减少3487；TL前20名多头133484，环比减少884；TL前20名空头151049，环比减少1420；TL前20名净空仓17565，环比减少536 [2]. 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Price) - 220017.IB(4y）净价106.7266，环比减少0.0192；220019.IB(4y）净价99.0955，环比减少0.0190。250003.IB(4y）净价99.6713，环比减少0.0117；240020.IB(4y)净价100.8844，环比减少0.0202。250017.IB(1.7y)净价100.0353，环比减少0.0110；250012.IB(2y)净价100.0453，环比减少0.0160。210005.IB(17y)净价131.5531，环比增加0.0439；210014.IB(18y)净价127.8009，环比减少0.0022 [2]. 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1y收益率1.3850%，环比增加0.50bp；3y收益率1.4175%，环比增加0.75bp；5y收益率1.5350%，环比增加0.50bp；7y收益率1.6395%，环比增加0.95bp；10y收益率1.7900%，环比减少0.25bp [2]. 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率1.3066%，环比增加0.66bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.3150%，环比减少0.10bp。银质押7天利率1.4058%，环比减少2.42bp；Shibor7天利率1.4150%，环比增加0.30bp。银质押14天利率1.4400%，环比减少1.00bp；Shibor14天利率1.4780%，环比增加0.90bp [2]. 3.7 LPR Rates - 1y LPR为3.00%，环比不变；5y LPR为3.5%，环比不变 [2]. 3.8 Open Market Operations - 发行规模1175亿，环比减少3578亿；到期规模4753亿；利率1.4%，期限7天 [2]. 3.9 Industry News - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The composite PMI output index was 50%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. - The US Treasury Secretary said that if China continues to block rare - earth exports, the US may impose additional tariffs on China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that dialogue and cooperation are the right ways, while threats and pressure do not help solve problems. - The Ministry of Finance updated its official website, listing the Debt Management Department under the "Ministry Agencies". The department is responsible for formulating and implementing government domestic debt management systems and policies, etc. [2]. 3.10 Key Points to Watch - On November 5th at 21:15, the US ADP employment figures for October will be released. - On November 6th at 22:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest - rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report [3].

Core Insights - The article discusses the implications of long-term interest rates exceeding 2% and the resulting market dynamics based on international comparisons [8] - It explores the concept of "Sanae Economics" as a potential evolution of Abenomics, highlighting key differences in macroeconomic frameworks and policy approaches [11] - The article analyzes the significant decline in fixed asset investment growth since mid-year and the comprehensive downturn across various sectors [12] Group 1: Deep Dive Topics - The deep dive topic examines the market behavior following the breach of the 2% long-term interest rate threshold, utilizing cross-country comparisons to draw insights [8] - It emphasizes the need for a nuanced understanding of how such interest rate changes affect different market segments and investment strategies [8] Group 2: Hot Topics - "Sanae Economics" is characterized as distinct from Abenomics, focusing on fiscal leadership versus monetary policy, and addressing deflation versus inflation [11] - The article outlines the strategic focus on government-led investments in critical sectors such as semiconductors, AI, and defense under the new economic framework [11] - It highlights the importance of crisis management and economic security in shaping future economic policies [11] Group 3: Investment Trends - The article identifies a marked decline in fixed asset investment growth, with all major sectors, including infrastructure, services, manufacturing, and real estate, experiencing downturns [12][13] - It questions whether incremental policy measures can effectively stimulate investment and reverse the current trend [12] Group 4: Policy Signals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes optimizing traditional industries and adopting extraordinary measures for technological modernization [16][18] - It outlines the necessity for a modernized industrial system as a foundation for China's economic strategy, focusing on enhancing competitiveness in traditional sectors while fostering emerging industries [18][19]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates for the second time this year, with the target range for the federal funds rate set between 3.75% and 4.00% [3] - The Fed announced a significant decision to stop the balance sheet reduction, which is a part of its monetary policy [34] Group 2 - The balance sheet refers to the financial statement that reflects all assets, liabilities, and equity of an entity at a specific date [7] - The equation for the balance sheet is assets = liabilities + equity, indicating that the left side always equals the right side [9] - The Fed's balance sheet reduction involves selling various bonds to decrease the size of its bond holdings, effectively pulling money out of circulation [32]

Group 1 - The outlook for policy interest rates indicates that a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is not guaranteed, with significant disagreement among FOMC members about whether to pause [1] - The composition of the balance sheet has not been decided, and adjustments will be gradual, aiming for a shorter duration of the balance sheet [1] - The employment market is cooling due to restrictive policies, but there is no significant worsening in job market weakness, with job vacancies indicating stability over the past month [1] Group 2 - Inflation data shows that the September CPI was more moderate than expected, with core PCE potentially at 2.3% or 2.4% when excluding tariffs, and non-tariff inflation remaining close to the 2% target [1] - The potential government shutdown could impact the December FOMC monetary policy meeting, as private sector data cannot replace government statistics [1] - Market reactions include a rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield by over 8 basis points, stabilizing around 4.0583%, and a rise in the 2-year Treasury yield by over 10 basis points, stabilizing around 3.5919% [1]