新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-31 铜价回落后再度企稳 明年一季度展望仍偏乐观 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，美联储公布12月会议纪要显示，FOMC在12月会议上同意降息，但就美国经济目前面临的风险进 行了深入细致的辩论。根据会议纪要，鉴于美国经济面临的各种风险，即使是一些支持降息的官员也承认，"这一 决定是权衡利弊后的结果，或者他们也本可能支持维持目标利率区间不变"。而在讨论本次会议的货币政策决定时， 委员们一致认为，现有指标显示经济活动正在以温和的速度扩张。他们还一致认为，今年就业增长有所放缓，失 业率截至9月份略有上升。此外，根据会议对资产负债表考虑的讨论，委员们一致认为，准备金余额已经下降到充 足的水平，委员会将根据需要开始购买短期国债，以持续保持充足的准备金供应。他们还同意取消对常备回购操 作的总额限制。 矿端方面，外电12月29日消息，印度最高法院于周一主动暂停执行其五周前做出的关于重新定义阿拉瓦利山脉的 裁决，该裁决曾将这座富含矿产的古老山脉向更广泛的采矿和房地产开发开放。在周一的紧急听证会上，由首席 大法官Surya Kant领导的特别合议庭表示， ...

Core Viewpoint - The stability of the real estate market is crucial for boosting consumption and ensuring the resilience of the overall economy, necessitating decisive and innovative government policies to reverse market expectations [2][3][5]. Group 1: Relationship Between Real Estate and Consumption - The relationship between real estate and consumption is clear; a household's consumption ability depends on its asset value and future income expectations. The current decline in consumption is due to the significant reduction in household assets and weakened confidence in future income caused by the downturn in the real estate market [3][5]. - Experts emphasize the need to stabilize asset values and market expectations to solidify the foundation of consumption, aligning with the central government's repeated calls for "stabilizing housing prices, land prices, and expectations" [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Attributes of Real Estate - Real estate possesses both consumption and investment attributes, similar to government bonds and stocks. The current rental yield in some declining markets is approaching 2%, making it relatively attractive compared to savings [6]. - The shift in market expectations has led to a decline in transaction volumes despite falling prices, contrasting with typical consumer behavior where price drops stimulate sales. This change is attributed to a generational shift in perception, particularly among younger individuals who no longer view rising property prices as inevitable [6][7]. Group 3: Pathways to Stabilize the Real Estate Market - Experts suggest various strategies to address the current challenges in the real estate market, including the potential for easing purchase restrictions in major cities to stimulate market activity, as evidenced by positive trends in cities like Chengdu after policy relaxations [8][9]. - The central government is encouraged to utilize public financial tools to address local fiscal and financial issues, with the issuance of government bonds seen as a viable method to meet market demand for quality assets and support economic recovery [9][10]. - The establishment of a personal bankruptcy protection system is deemed urgent to alleviate the burdens on homeowners unable to continue mortgage payments, which would help protect consumer confidence and overall economic stability [10][11]. Group 4: Importance of Real Estate Stability - The stability of the real estate market is considered more critical than that of the stock market, as it affects a broader segment of the population and directly influences consumer confidence and asset security [11][12]. - The central government is believed to have the capability and experience to address the challenges in the real estate market through institutional innovation and policy tools, which can help restore a healthy market environment [11][12].

"我很相信一件事：若经营的生意缺乏持续性，早晚会倒闭！" 一句话让人醍醐灌顶。 李泽楷有次谈及了日本大财团的问题，他批评当年日本在泡沫期间大肆放贷，高利贷公司得意忘形，"当年在日本借贷，你可以晚上十一 时离开酒吧，按一个键拍下影片（影像），输入身份证号码便能借钱，但日息高达10%以上。" 在他看来，这种模式是不可持续的，是不健康的商业模式。 其实就是常识吧，涸泽而渔，无以为继，最终就是得到一个很坏的结果。 如果你也相信这个常识，那对很多事就会有不一样的看法。 比如美国的问题，有人就指出美国的头号敌人是自己，是自己不断膨胀的联邦债务。桥水基金创始人达利欧也曾指出这个问题："货币/ 经济秩序正在崩溃，原因在于（美国）现有债务规模过大，新增债务速度过快，而资本市场与经济体系又严重依赖这一不可持续的债务 结构。" 想一想马斯克过去那个"效率部"，核心目标就是降本增效，以求缩减债务。美联储降息也是为了降低美债成本，延缓债务灾难的爆发。 在达利欧看来，历史上的强国一般分6个阶段：1、建立新秩序；2、官僚制度完善；3、繁荣期、盛世；4、运转成本和债务增加；5、财 政状况恶化、内耗严重；6、革新。 按照这个划分，美国现在正处 ...

Group 1: Gold - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target federal funds rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% [1] - Analysts suggest that if expectations for further rate cuts increase, it could boost gold prices [1] - Technically, gold has been oscillating between $4180 and $4260, with key support at $4195 and resistance at $4250 [1] Group 2: Oil - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 1.812 million barrels, which was less than expected, leading to bearish sentiment for oil prices [2] - The EIA's short-term energy report indicates that global supply growth is outpacing demand, predicting a 2 million barrels per day increase in oil inventories next year [2] - Technically, oil faced resistance at $60.47 and is expected to test support at $57 [2] Group 3: U.S. Dollar Index - The recent Fed rate cut faced dissent from three members, indicating potential challenges for future cuts [3] - The dollar index has been experiencing wide fluctuations, with a recent resistance level at 100.40 and potential support at 96.60 [3] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has struggled to break above the resistance level of 51000, with a potential test of support at 49470 [5] Group 5: Copper - Copper prices have been consolidating at high levels, with a potential upward target of $5.38, while support is noted at $5.23 [6] Group 6: Market Overview - The Fed's decision to cut rates and purchase $40 billion in short-term debt was confirmed, with a maintained expectation of one rate cut each in the next two years [7] - The U.S. labor cost growth has reached a four-year low [7] - Tensions are rising as the U.S. detained a Venezuelan oil tanker, with Venezuela's president responding defiantly [7]

当地时间12月10日，美股三大指数收高，道指上涨近500点，标普500指数逼近历史最高收盘纪录。在美联储决定今年 再次降息后，交易员押注明年将有更多宽松政策出台。 截至当天收盘，道指涨497.46点，涨幅为1.05%，报48057.75点；纳指涨77.67点，涨幅为0.33%，报23654.16点；标普 500指数涨46.17点，涨幅为0.67%，报6886.68点。 美联储主席鲍威尔在随后召开的新闻发布会上表示，美联储将逐次会议做出决定，货币政策并不存在预定的路径；同 时，他排除了加息的可能性，认为"目前没有人会把加息作为基本预期"。此外，鲍威尔表示，国债购买规模或将在未 来数月维持高位。 美联储再降息25基点 美联储在其为期两天的政策会议结束时批准了又一次0.25个百分点的降息。这是该机构今年连续第三次降息，使联邦 基金利率降至3.50%至3.75%的区间。 此外，美联储表示将自12月12日起购买国库券，未来30天购买400亿美元。美联储"点阵图"显示决策层对2026年利率 的预测中值没有变化。 美联储在其声明中称，其常备隔夜回购操作将不再设定总操作额度上限，并将通过FedTrade Plus交易平台以全 ...

The Federal Reserve reducing interest rates by an expected quarter point to a new range of 3.5% to 3.75%. There were three descents, the first time that's happened since September 2019. Two were against the cut, including Chicago Fed President Austin Goulby along with um Kansas City Fed President Jeff Smith.His second descent in a row. Also another disscent for a 50 basis point cut from new Fed governor on loan from the administration Steven Myron. To recap, the vote was nine for cutting a quarter, two agai ...

来源：观点地产网 观点网讯：12月9日消息，美国电信与传媒集团康卡斯特(CMCSA)总裁Cavanagh表示，公司已正式退出 对华纳兄弟探索的竞购，理由是评估自身出价胜算有限且不愿因高杠杆收购冲击资产负债表。 Cavanagh表示，面对奈飞与派拉蒙天舞集团提出的更高现金报价，康卡斯特的竞购条件缺乏竞争力，董 事会决定及时止步并尊重华纳兄弟探索选择更高现金竞标者的决策。 他同时强调，康卡斯特对现有业务布局与战略方向保持充分信心，未来将继续聚焦核心资产运营与现金 流优化，不再就本次交易投入资源。 免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 ...

新华财经北京12月8日电（高二山）人民银行8日开展1223亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与前次持平；鉴于当 日有1076亿元逆回购到期，公开市场实现净投放147亿元。 【今日关注】 上海银行间同业拆放利率（12月8日） 来源：全国银行间同业拆借中心 银行间质押式回购市场方面，多数品种微涨，R007小幅走低。具体看，DR001、R001加权平均利率分别上行0.2BP、持 平，报1.3022%、1.3718%，成交额分别减少1496亿元、477亿元；DR007、R007加权平均利率分别上行0.8BP、下行 0.2BP，报1.4459%、1.494%，成交额分别增加102亿元、392亿元；DR014、R014加权平均利率分别上行0.4BP、0.8BP，报 1.5159%、1.5381%，成交额分别增加1亿元、258亿元。 货币市场利率（12月8日） 据上海国际货币经纪公司交易员消息，8日资金面呈均衡态势。早盘大行国股行部分融出。开盘隔夜成交在利率存单1.48% 附近，7天期限成交在1.49%-1.50%区间。14天期限成交至1.48%-1.50%区间。跨年资金成交押利率成交至1.62%附近，押信 用成 ...

我卖掉了房子。 准确说，是割肉止损了结一笔持续四年的坏账。 决定买下它，只用了一个下午。 决定卖掉它，我纠结了三年。 这三年，与其说是在等房价回暖，不如说是在等自己"认输"。直到我彻底想通一件事：在财务的资产负 债表上，感情用事，是成本最高的负债。 这是一场价值百万的资产逻辑纠偏。 让我下定决心的，不是某个专家的分析，而是一个最基础的财务概念的颠覆——到底什么是"资产"？ 我们从小被灌输：房子、车子、存款，是资产。是"好东西"，是"家底"。 但真相是残酷的：不能带来正向现金流入的东西，都是负债。它们只是在消耗你的现金，伪装成资产的 样子。 我那套房子：每月吞噬房贷利息、物业费，每年因折旧和市价阴跌而缩水。它不再是我的"资产"，而是 我名下每月定时扣款的"不良负债"。 当年买房，理由无比正确：为了儿子上学。看了学校旁的房子，冲动之下，用了最高的价格、背了最高 的利息。 这几年我反复算一笔账：房价下跌的损失+利息成本+机会成本（这笔首付本可产生的投资收益），足 够我在学校隔壁租一套更好的房子，并雇一个专职保姆接送孩子，舒舒服服用上几年。 而我，却为了一个"拥有学区房"的虚名，把自己套牢在钢筋水泥的债务里，忍受着资 ...

Group 1: Overview of the Economic Fundamentals - The household sector's assets include financial and non-financial assets, accounting for 49.2% and 50.8% respectively as of 2022, with urban housing being the largest component, consistently over 40% [3][19] - The real estate market recovery is expected to go through three phases: a rebound in transaction volume, followed by price recovery, and finally stabilization of investment [3][23] - The leverage ratios of the three sectors show structural differentiation, with the household sector stabilizing around 60%, non-financial enterprises increasing to 174.4%, and government sector leverage rising steadily [12][34] Group 2: Policy Trends from Monetary Reports - Since July 2024, the central bank has introduced various monetary policy tools focusing on quantity and price adjustments, with a notable reduction in the 7-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points in May 2025 [4] - The central bank is expected to maintain a loose liquidity policy in 2026, with a baseline scenario of 1-2 rate cuts of 25-50 basis points and 1-2 reserve requirement ratio reductions of 50-100 basis points [4][6] - The relationship between deposit and loan rates is crucial, as the net interest margin for commercial banks has decreased from 1.97% in Q1 2022 to 1.42% in Q3 2025, indicating a need for careful policy adjustments [4] Group 3: Bond Investment from Relative Value Perspective - The 1Y government bond yield is expected to remain around 1.4%, with the 10Y government bond yield projected at approximately 1.7% [6] - The yield curve may steepen in the first half of 2026 due to anticipated rate cuts, while uncertainties in the second half will depend on the effectiveness of policies aimed at economic recovery [6][28] - Current relative value assessments indicate that the attractiveness of stocks compared to bonds has weakened, suggesting a balanced allocation strategy [6] Group 4: Corporate Sector Analysis - The leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises has increased from 155% in Q1 2022 to 174.4% in Q3 2025, but internal financing demand remains weak [34] - The ratio of medium to long-term loans to short-term loans and bill financing is low, indicating a focus on short-term liquidity rather than long-term investment expansion [34] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address the issue of rising revenues without corresponding profit increases, with early signs of effectiveness in improving capacity utilization in the mid and downstream sectors [40] Group 5: Government Sector Financial Overview - The fiscal deficit is projected to be around 12.6 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate of approximately 8.5%, indicating a trend of expanding government balance sheets [3][45] - Tax revenue is expected to reach approximately 17.6 trillion yuan in 2025, with a forecast of 18.2 trillion yuan for 2026 based on historical growth rates [49] - Government spending is categorized into various sectors, with social welfare and infrastructure spending being the largest components, accounting for 38% and 23% respectively in 2024 [57]