Core Insights - The narrative of "Made in China" has evolved significantly since China's accession to the WTO in 2001, impacting the stock market and the global economy [1] Group 1: Export Diversification - Due to US-China trade tensions, Chinese exporters have diversified their business to European countries and emerging markets, with exports to non-US countries growing at a CAGR of 7.5% since 2018, while exports to the US have declined by 0.6% annually [3] - Trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries now accounts for 47% of total trade, up from 32% in 2005 [3] Group 2: Shift in Export Composition - There has been a significant shift towards advanced technology products in China's exports over the past decade, with machinery and electronics being key growth drivers from 2010 to 2020 [4] - Exports of electrical equipment and "new three" products—electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar cells—have seen rapid growth, while traditional goods like toys, textiles, and furniture have seen a 10% decline in global export share over the past 15 years [4] Group 3: Strategic Overseas Investments - China has strategically increased its overseas direct investment, particularly in Belt and Road countries, allowing companies to diversify supply chains and establish production capabilities closer to end markets [7] - The export of services, including e-commerce, entertainment, travel, and biotechnology contract research services, has also increased [7] Group 4: Competitive Currency and Global Position - The Chinese yuan remains highly competitive, supporting exporters, with research indicating it is undervalued, providing a competitive edge for global expansion [8] - China plays an indispensable role in global supply chains, particularly in raw materials and advanced manufacturing, with cost advantages allowing companies to offer products at 15% to 60% lower prices than global competitors [9] Group 5: Domestic Market Diversification - Chinese companies are diversifying from a highly competitive domestic market due to overcapacity and intense competition, seeking growth opportunities in less saturated international markets [10] Group 6: Cultural and Market Advantages - The presence of over 50 million ethnic Chinese outside mainland China provides local knowledge and cultural insights, facilitating global expansion and serving as early adopters in initial markets [11] Group 7: Cost and Quality Competitiveness - Chinese products have evolved to exhibit significant cost-effectiveness and quality competitiveness, particularly in technologically complex goods, supported by increased R&D investment [14] - By 2024, 130 Chinese companies are expected to be listed in the Fortune Global 500, up from 100 a decade ago, indicating strong growth in sectors like automotive, high-tech, and internet [14] Group 8: Overseas Revenue Growth - The share of overseas revenue for Chinese listed companies has increased from 14% in 2018 to 16% currently, driven mainly by the automotive, retail, and capital goods sectors [15] - If the current growth trajectory continues, overseas revenue share could reach 19.2% by 2028, still below levels observed in developed (53%) and emerging markets (48%) [16] Group 9: Sensitivity to Export Growth - There is a strong correlation between the growth of overseas revenue for Chinese listed companies and the country's export growth, with predictions of approximately 13% annual growth in overseas revenue for non-financial companies over the next three years [17] Group 10: Globalization Impact - The gap between GDP and GNP may widen as Chinese companies increasingly derive economic activity and income from overseas markets, similar to Japan's experience since the 1980s [23] - Strong export performance is expected to support China's balance of payments, potentially leading to increased pressure for yuan appreciation [24] Group 11: Financing Needs for Global Expansion - As non-domestic business scales and matures, the demand for financing in foreign currencies is expected to rise, with increased issuance of dim sum bonds and funds raised through Hong Kong IPOs to support overseas growth [26]