Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang expresses optimism about re-entering the Chinese market despite U.S. export restrictions, emphasizing the importance of collaboration between U.S. tech companies and China for mutual benefits [2][4]. Group 1: Nvidia's Position on China - Huang has not received updates on discussions regarding the easing of export restrictions but hopes for Nvidia's return to the Chinese market, highlighting its vibrant and innovative environment [2]. - He argues that the U.S. restrictions based on national security concerns are misguided, stating that engaging with the Chinese market aligns with the best interests of both nations [4]. - Huang acknowledges Huawei's growing capabilities in AI chip technology, suggesting that underestimating Huawei is unwise, especially after U.S. sanctions prompted China to enhance its domestic technology [2][4]. Group 2: Nvidia's Collaboration with South Korea - Nvidia plans to maintain long-term partnerships with South Korean semiconductor giants Samsung and SK Hynix, focusing on the development of advanced memory technologies [7]. - The company has signed significant supply agreements with South Korean firms to provide GPUs for AI applications, aiming to address the ongoing GPU supply shortage [9][10]. - Analysts view Nvidia's collaboration with South Korea as a strategic move to compensate for its shrinking market share in China due to U.S. trade tensions [10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Concerns - Huang points out that China is capable of producing a substantial amount of AI chips independently, which raises questions about the validity of U.S. national security concerns regarding chip exports [5]. - There are concerns about potential "circular trading," where South Korean companies might use profits from selling memory chips to Nvidia to purchase GPUs, complicating the nature of the transactions [9][11]. - The collaboration with South Korea is seen as a critical opportunity for Nvidia amidst the global demand for AI semiconductors, especially as competition in the market intensifies [10][11].

Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets—and may continue to in the future. Here’s what you need to know: Gold logged its second straight weekly loss, retreating below $3,900/oz before rebounding to hold $4,000/oz support. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25%, but the move was widely expected an ...

Core Insights - The narrative of "Made in China" has evolved significantly since China's accession to the WTO in 2001, impacting the stock market and the global economy [1] Group 1: Export Diversification - Due to US-China trade tensions, Chinese exporters have diversified their business to European countries and emerging markets, with exports to non-US countries growing at a CAGR of 7.5% since 2018, while exports to the US have declined by 0.6% annually [3] - Trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries now accounts for 47% of total trade, up from 32% in 2005 [3] Group 2: Shift in Export Composition - There has been a significant shift towards advanced technology products in China's exports over the past decade, with machinery and electronics being key growth drivers from 2010 to 2020 [4] - Exports of electrical equipment and "new three" products—electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar cells—have seen rapid growth, while traditional goods like toys, textiles, and furniture have seen a 10% decline in global export share over the past 15 years [4] Group 3: Strategic Overseas Investments - China has strategically increased its overseas direct investment, particularly in Belt and Road countries, allowing companies to diversify supply chains and establish production capabilities closer to end markets [7] - The export of services, including e-commerce, entertainment, travel, and biotechnology contract research services, has also increased [7] Group 4: Competitive Currency and Global Position - The Chinese yuan remains highly competitive, supporting exporters, with research indicating it is undervalued, providing a competitive edge for global expansion [8] - China plays an indispensable role in global supply chains, particularly in raw materials and advanced manufacturing, with cost advantages allowing companies to offer products at 15% to 60% lower prices than global competitors [9] Group 5: Domestic Market Diversification - Chinese companies are diversifying from a highly competitive domestic market due to overcapacity and intense competition, seeking growth opportunities in less saturated international markets [10] Group 6: Cultural and Market Advantages - The presence of over 50 million ethnic Chinese outside mainland China provides local knowledge and cultural insights, facilitating global expansion and serving as early adopters in initial markets [11] Group 7: Cost and Quality Competitiveness - Chinese products have evolved to exhibit significant cost-effectiveness and quality competitiveness, particularly in technologically complex goods, supported by increased R&D investment [14] - By 2024, 130 Chinese companies are expected to be listed in the Fortune Global 500, up from 100 a decade ago, indicating strong growth in sectors like automotive, high-tech, and internet [14] Group 8: Overseas Revenue Growth - The share of overseas revenue for Chinese listed companies has increased from 14% in 2018 to 16% currently, driven mainly by the automotive, retail, and capital goods sectors [15] - If the current growth trajectory continues, overseas revenue share could reach 19.2% by 2028, still below levels observed in developed (53%) and emerging markets (48%) [16] Group 9: Sensitivity to Export Growth - There is a strong correlation between the growth of overseas revenue for Chinese listed companies and the country's export growth, with predictions of approximately 13% annual growth in overseas revenue for non-financial companies over the next three years [17] Group 10: Globalization Impact - The gap between GDP and GNP may widen as Chinese companies increasingly derive economic activity and income from overseas markets, similar to Japan's experience since the 1980s [23] - Strong export performance is expected to support China's balance of payments, potentially leading to increased pressure for yuan appreciation [24] Group 11: Financing Needs for Global Expansion - As non-domestic business scales and matures, the demand for financing in foreign currencies is expected to rise, with increased issuance of dim sum bonds and funds raised through Hong Kong IPOs to support overseas growth [26]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese tech sector, particularly companies like BU and Alibaba, is facing challenges due to geopolitical tensions and a housing crisis affecting consumer confidence, but there are signs of growth in AI-driven businesses and potential recovery in investor interest [1][5][10]. Company Insights - BU's core e-commerce ad revenue has contracted significantly, influenced by the housing crisis and its impact on consumer confidence and domestic consumption [1]. - BU's AI-driven cloud business has grown to account for 20% of its revenue, with a year-over-year growth of approximately 27% in Q2 [1][2]. - The chat GPT version called Ernie from BU is receiving positive evaluations, surpassing previous deep learning models [3]. - BU is considered a national champion in China's AI sector, indicating its potential as a must-have stock as interest broadens beyond larger companies like Alibaba [4]. Industry Trends - The Chinese tech sector is currently under pressure, with Alibaba serving as a bellwether for the industry, experiencing flat EPS growth over the past few years [7][8]. - US institutional investors are largely underweight in Chinese stocks, with a significant absence from the market, while investments from Europe and Asia are increasing [9][11]. - The upcoming CCP's fourth plenum is expected to focus on strengthening the tech sector, with companies like Baidu and Alibaba positioned to benefit from initiatives aimed at technology independence [13][15].

仔细分析特朗普的言论背景，可以更清晰地看出他的算计。美国不仅希望通过关税对中国施压，还希望让其盟友站出来一起"联手"，但现实是， 欧盟虽然口口声声要"联合施压中国"，但实际上缺乏足够的能力来对中国构成真正威胁。此外，特朗普还曾要求澳大利亚与中国"脱钩"，但澳大 利亚直接拒绝了美国的要求，不愿为美国的利益牺牲自己的经济利益。因此，很多情况下，美国的盟友要么只是空口喊话，要么根本不配合。 面对关税这张牌的尴尬，特朗普发现它既难以奏效，盟友也不支持，于是他不得不放低姿态，承认"不可持续"，为未来的谈判留足余地。 2023年10月17日，特朗普在接受福克斯商业新闻网采访时，不得不承认，之前他扬言对中国征收高额关税的做法，实际上已经"不可持续"。然 而，即使承认了这一现实，他依然没有放软口气，反而将责任全部推给中国，声称中美贸易谈判的僵局是由于中国方面的问题。他还指责中国的 稀土新规，甚至表示"对华加税是中国逼的"。 特朗普的这些言论明显是故意混淆视听，倒打一耙，试图掩盖自己此前的错误。事实上，中美贸易紧张局势加剧的根本原因，不言而喻。早在今 年9月，美国就率先违背了双方达成的共识，不断加强对华出口管制，从技术领域到产 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats fluctuated and declined. The overall futures prices of oils and fats are likely to fluctuate and consolidate. The reduction period of palm oil and the market's expectation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy implementation support palm oil and soybean oil. However, warnings of crude oil supply surplus in 2026 and Sino - US trade tensions suppress biodiesel, putting downward pressure on palm oil and soybean oil. Domestically, soybean supply is sufficient before the end of the year, soybean oil inventory is high, and demand is shrinking, lacking the impetus for continuous upward movement. Attention should be paid to the impact of policy changes on the oils and fats market [9][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats fluctuated and declined. The Y2601 soybean oil contract fell 0.55% to close at 8,256 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract fell 1.38% to close at 9,308 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract fell 1.99% to close at 9,861 yuan/ton [5][31]. 3.2 Important Information - **Palm Oil**: From October 1st to 15th, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 12.3% - 16.2% month - on - month, alleviating market concerns about demand. Indonesia may raise the crude palm oil export levy to 15% to meet the subsidy funds required for the future B50 program, with the specific time undetermined. Malaysian palm oil fell 1.58% [7][31]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of the 2025/26 season, China has not purchased any US soybeans but has turned to Brazil, Argentina and other countries. Despite US soybean prices being lower than those in South America, due to the trade war and China's retaliatory tariffs (up to 20%), China's purchasing decision has become a political choice. US soybeans rose 1.39% this week [7][31]. 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of October 16, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,520 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [10]. - As of October 16, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [11]. - As of October 16, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,230 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [13]. 3.4 Other Data - As of October 10, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 23,000 tons to 1.438 million tons. On October 15, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 17,000 tons to 598,000 tons [17]. - As of October 17, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 7,188,210 tons [20]. - As of October 16, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 264 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [21]. - As of October 16, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 62 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [22]. - As of October 16, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 295 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [24]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - The content is consistent with the core view, emphasizing that the futures prices of oils and fats are likely to fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to the impact of policy changes on the market [32].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the ongoing tensions in US-China trade relations, with both sides agreeing to hold new economic consultations to avoid further tariff conflicts [1][2] - The US has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports if China does not lift restrictions on rare earth materials, indicating a potential escalation in trade disputes [1] - China's Ministry of Commerce expressed strong dissatisfaction with the US's recent actions, which they believe undermine the atmosphere for negotiations and harm Chinese interests [2] Group 2 - The international community, including the IMF and WTO, is closely monitoring the situation, with calls for both nations to ease tensions to prevent negative impacts on global economic growth [2] - The IMF president emphasized the need for stability in US-China relations, as uncertainty in trade can affect supply chains and overall economic performance [2] - Hong Kong's Financial Secretary noted that there is a widespread belief in the US that stable US-China relations are crucial not only for the two countries but also for the future of the global economy [3]

Core Insights - Gold has reached a new all-time high, driven by institutional buying rather than retail frenzy, indicating a shift in market dynamics [4][19][63] - Central banks are significant buyers of gold, motivated by the desire to diversify reserves amid geopolitical tensions and the weaponization of the dollar [6][66][71] - The correlation between gold and Bitcoin remains low, with gold being favored as a safer asset during market volatility [14][94] Institutional and Retail Dynamics - The current gold market is characterized by institutional buying, contrasting with historical trends where retail investors drove prices during peaks [4][19] - Speculators have returned to the market, increasing volatility, but the primary demand is from institutions seeking diversification [11][35] Central Bank Influence - Central banks, particularly from BRICS nations, are increasing their gold reserves, which is expected to continue driving prices higher [66][71] - The trend of central banks diversifying away from the US dollar is a key factor supporting gold prices [6][66] Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The rise in gold prices is linked to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly US-China trade relations [29][63] - Gold's performance is seen as a reflection of broader economic concerns, including inflation and currency stability [17][71] Silver and Other Precious Metals - Silver has also seen significant price increases, driven by both its industrial applications and its status as a cheaper alternative to gold [86][88] - The silver market is experiencing a supply deficit, which is expected to support higher prices in the future [52][39] Investment Strategies - Investors are exploring various ways to gain exposure to gold, including physical gold, ETFs, and mining stocks, each with its own risk and return profile [75][78] - The market is witnessing a shift towards gold ETFs as a more accessible investment vehicle compared to physical gold [74][75] Future Projections - Analysts predict that gold could reach prices between $4,500 and $5,200 in the coming year, depending on market conditions and central bank policies [69][96] - The potential for corrections exists, but the overall sentiment remains bullish due to structural factors supporting gold prices [70][94]

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market capitalization has decreased by 4.9%, now standing at $3.67 trillion [1][2] - Total crypto trading volume is reported at $234 billion [1] Price Movements - Among the top 100 coins, 97 have experienced price declines over the past 24 hours [1][4] - Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped by 4.5%, currently trading at $105,732 [2][3] - Ethereum (ETH) has fallen by 6%, now priced at $3,764 [2][3] - Binance Coin (BNB) saw the highest drop at 10%, trading at $1,064 [3] - Dogecoin (DOGE) decreased by 9.3%, now at $0.179 [3] - The smallest decline was 4.3% for Tron (TRX), currently at $0.3079 [4] Significant Declines - Over 30 coins in the top 100 recorded double-digit percentage falls [4] - ChainOpera AI (COAI) experienced the largest drop of 22.8%, now at $17.71 [4] - Zcash (ZEC) decreased by 19.9%, now priced at $193 [4] Market Sentiment and Influences - The crypto market sentiment is currently in the fear zone, similar to levels last seen in April [2] - A wave of liquidations exceeding $19 billion has contributed to the recent downturn, influenced by US-China trade tensions [5] - Analysts suggest that a break below the key support level of $99,900 for Bitcoin could lead to a deeper correction [6] Bitcoin's Utility Perspective - There is a strong conviction in Bitcoin as a utility asset, not merely a store of value [7] - Despite recent price fluctuations, Bitcoin DeFi's Total Value Locked (TVL) has remained relatively stable [6][7]

智通财经APP获悉，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒表示，官员们可以继续以25个基点的幅度降息以支撑 疲软的劳动力市场，而新任理事斯蒂芬·米兰则继续主张更大幅度的降息。 沃勒周四在接受采访时表示，"我们不希望犯错，因此谨慎的做法是采取25个基点的幅度，等待并观察 市场反应，从而为后续决策提供更清晰的依据。" 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔本周早些时候暗示，官员们有望在本月底的会议上再次降息25个基点。这将 是美联储今年第二次降息，以应对就业增长急剧放缓。然而，多位政策制定者强调仍需警惕通胀风险， 目前通胀率仍高于美联储2%的目标。 在另一次采访中，米兰重申其主张更大幅度降息50个基点的观点。目前暂离白宫经济顾问委员会主席职 务的米兰，其美联储理事任期将于明年1月结束。 米兰重申其观点，即近期中美贸易紧张局势的升级给经济带来更多下行风险，需要货币政策快速宽松。 "如果货币政策保持当前限制性水平，而经济遭遇此类冲击，将显著放大负面后果，"他表示支持在10月 28-29日会议上降息50个基点，但承认官员们很可能延续9月25个基点的降幅。"预计今年可能实施三次 25个基点的降息。" 沃勒上月与多数同事一致投票支持将基准利率下调2 ...