Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have experienced significant fluctuations, and risks have increased substantially [3][5] - The market sentiment has shifted, with有色金属 experiencing a sharp decline in the afternoon [4] - The high - level uncertainty of copper prices has risen significantly, and the risks in the later period are relatively high [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - During the Christmas holiday in the external market this week, trading was light, and market volatility increased. Precious metals speculation in the morning session drove the collective strength of non - ferrous metals, but the market declined in the afternoon. Shanghai copper and LME copper rose, and domestic spot copper also increased [4] - LME copper reached a new historical high, trading around $12,570. Shanghai copper reached a new high in the morning and then declined in the afternoon, closing slightly higher at 98,860. Trading volume increased while positions decreased, indicating a large divergence in market sentiment [5] Price and Basis - The closing price of Shanghai copper was 98,860, and the spot price was 101,290. The spot was at a premium of 2,430 points over futures. The spot basis was at a discount of - 330 points, and spot trading was extremely poor. The LME spot premium widened to $20, and the external market spot demand was good [4] - The RMB exchange rate rose this week, and the Yangshan copper premium increased to $52.5, indicating an improvement in domestic spot demand. The LME - Shanghai ratio of copper prices remained at 7.87, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper decreased significantly to 1,021 points, with the external market ratio much higher than the domestic market [4] Inventory - This week, the US copper inventory continued to rise significantly to a new high, the LME copper inventory decreased slightly, and the Shanghai copper inventory increased. The spot demand was average [4] Production - In November, domestic copper production increased by 11.9% year - on - year [5] Demand and Premium - Domestic and LME copper demand was not good, but the buying power of US copper was extremely strong, which was the main factor driving up copper prices. Recently, the US copper inventory has continued to rise. The US accelerated inventory accumulation, causing tension in the spot market, and the premium of US copper over LME copper decreased to around $155 [5]

研 究 院 货 金 融 宏观利好不断，铜价继续上行 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 期 弘 业 期 货 金 融 研 究 院 周五美国核心PCE物价指数低于预期，美联储降息预期继续强化。今日中央政治局会议信息发布，预计很快召开年 度经济工作会议，同时11月中国出口数据明显超预期。午后市场情绪受到较大带动，有色金属全线拉升。日内美元下跌， 有色金属延续强势，全线上涨。铜价直线拉升大涨，再创历史新高。沪铜上涨，伦铜上涨，国内现货铜上涨。 数据上看，今日沪铜收盘报92970，现货报92270，沪铜午后拉升大涨，现货较期货贴水-700点。今日现货基差升水 上升至130点，现货成交不佳。LME现货升水下降至23美元，外盘现货需求较好。本周美铜库存继续大幅上升创新高，伦 铜库存上升，沪铜库存下降，现货需求一般。本周人民币汇率稳定，洋山铜溢价上升至41美元，国内现货需求好转。铜 价伦沪比上升至7.99，国际铜较沪铜升水大幅上升至1182点，外盘比价大幅高于内盘，市场乐观。 今日伦铜高位小幅上涨再创历史新高，在11727美元附近运行。沪 ...