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国投期货农产品日报-20251204
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 11:03
Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Soybean Meal, Eggs [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Soybean, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Live Pigs [1] Core Views - The overall outlook for agricultural products shows a mixed trend, with different factors influencing each commodity. The market is mainly affected by factors such as South American weather, exports, domestic supply and demand, and policies [2][3][4]. Summary by Commodity Soybean - The main contract of soybeans shows a reduction in positions and a decline in price. The domestic soybean spot price is stable and firm, while the US soybeans are expected to be volatile and bullish due to South American weather and export factors. Short - term attention should be paid to domestic policies and the spot market [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - Dalian soybean futures prices are weakly volatile. South American new - season Brazilian soybean sowing progress is normal, while Argentine soybean planting is slow due to weather. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, but the profit of oil mill crushing is poor. Soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level, suppressing prices. Whether the 05 contract can break through the upper limit depends on US soybean exports and South American weather [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Palm oil's rebound is restricted, and the market is in the process of position transfer. The market expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory to increase in November. If supply - side production cuts continue, the price may bottom out, but the rebound is limited by high inventory. For soybean oil, focus on policy changes, and the domestic soybean crushing profit is improving. Overall, the prices of soybean and palm oil are expected to fluctuate within a range [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Most rapeseed - related futures contracts declined, with only the near - month rapeseed meal contract being resistant to decline due to tight delivery resources. Rapeseed oil led the decline in the oil sector. Canadian rapeseed exports are weak, and its price is under pressure. The supply of rapeseed is expected to be more relaxed in the medium - term, and the short - term price of rapeseed - related products is under pressure but the decline space is limited [6]. Corn - Corn spot prices in the north and at northern ports remain firm, and futures are strong. Northeast new - grain supply is lower than expected, and there are concerns about supply and transportation. The 01 contract should be observed, while the 03 and 05 contracts should wait for a pull - back [7]. Live Pigs - Live pig futures and spot prices are weak, and the average spot slaughter price continues to decline. With the approaching of the winter solstice, southern curing will start, but there is also an exit pressure from second - fattened pigs. Historically, the bottom of the pig cycle often shows a double - bottom pattern, and it is expected that pig prices may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - The near - month January contract of eggs hit a new low, and the spot price is stable but weak. The long - position trend of the far - month contract is driven by the expectation of declining inventory, but the current valuation is high, and the spread between near - and far - month contracts is too large. The long - position trend is expected to end, and the near - month contract is bearish [9].